August 4th, 2022: Severino, Lopez, Torres, Mailbag

UPDATE: I misunderstood the third mailbag question. My bad. An updated answer is below.

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The great Vin Scully passed away earlier this week. He was 94 and a New Yorker through and through: Bronx born, Manhattan raised, began his career in Brooklyn. Here’s a transcript of his radio call of the final inning of Sandy Koufax’s perfect game in 1965. It reads like an amazing piece of sports writing, yet it was a radio broadcast off the top of his head. During the RAB years I would watch the Yankees, then often flip over to Scully and the Dodgers while putting together posts for the next day. He lost a little off his fastball as he approached retirement, for sure, but Scully was the greatest to ever do it. A true baseball legend. Now here is Friday morning’s post Thursday evening since it’s an off-day. Sorry it’s shorter than usual. The draft and the trade deadline have been a grind the last few weeks (here’s my deadline recap).

1. 106-game check-in. The Yankees will play their 108th game Saturday – that will be a Jordan Montgomery vs. Domingo German matchup, which should make for good takes – at which point the season will be two-thirds complete. The Yankees were damn near unbeatable through the first third of the season. The middle third has been a bit bumpier.

The Yankees are 21-20 since June 19th and that’s with Aaron Judge playing out of his mind and DJ LeMahieu being pretty amazing the last few weeks as well. In those 41 games they have a +62 run differential, and all I can say is: lol. 14 of the 20 losses were by one or two runs, and another four were by three runs. The Yankees still do the “they’re in almost every game” thing, though they aren’t mounting as many dramatic comebacks as earlier in the year. The late rallies are falling short more often now.

That said, all is not well just because the Yankees have a great run differential while playing .500 ball for close to two months. The rotation has not been nearly as good as it was earlier this year, and while expecting the starters to never miss a turn and go 6-7 innings each time out with sub-3 ERAs across the board was never realistic, the crash back to Earth has not been fun. Splitting the season in half, here is the rotation:

The Yankees had the best rotation in baseball in their first 53 games and have had a bottom 10 rotation in their last 53 games. It’s all home runs. They went from the best home run prevention team to nearly the worst home run prevention team. That’s really all it is. The ball is flying out of the park significantly more now and that impacts everything else. Higher ERA, fewer innings, etc.

The home run problem was never more obvious than Wednesday, when the Mariners ambushed Gerrit Cole for three first inning homers even while without their two best hitters (Julio Rodriguez and Ty France). Cole is the high-paid ace and he gets all the attention, but the homer problem is rotation-wide, and Domingo German (1.81 HR/9 since 2019) probably won’t help matters.

Home run rates always creep up in the hot summer months and the Yankees play in a home run ballpark in a home run division. The AL East is the dinger division. The rotation’s true talent level is likely middle of the pack rather than at the extremes like it’s been. Still, the increase in homers allowed is the single biggest reason the Yankees have been a .500 team the last few weeks. The rotation has not been nearly as good as it once was.

It’s incorrect to say the Yankees are fortunate to still have a double-digit lead in the AL East after the last few weeks because “fortunate” implies they don’t deserve it. They have a double-digit lead because they built a double-digit lead. They earned it. And you know what? The Yankees had a 12-game lead before this 21-20 stretch and they have an 11-game lead now. The rest of the AL East had their chance these last few weeks and didn’t capitalize.

Here’s what the Yankees need to do the rest of the season to reach certain win milestones:

• 100 wins: 30-26 (87-win pace)
• 95 wins (should clinch bye): 25-31 (72-win pace)
• 88 wins (should clinch postseason spot): 18-38 (52-win pace)
• 82 wins (clinch 30th straight winning season): 12-44 (27-win pace)

The American League behind the Yankees and Astros is aggressively mediocre. The Blue Jays have the third best record in the league and they’re on pace for 90 wins. The Guardians are the first team on the outside of the expanded postseason field and they’re on pace for 83 wins. This isn’t last year, when you would have needed 91 wins to get into the expanded postseason.

The wins milestones I have above are generous to the rest of the league and the Yankees can autopilot to a Wild Card Series bye at this point. The most important race is the race for the AL’s best record and thus home field advantage, and the Yankees are two games up on the Astros. Houston has a major remaining schedule advantage. The Yankees will have to really earn it.

As annoying as the last few weeks have been, the Yankees have played .500 ball rather than fall into a 16-25 rut or something like that. Frankie Montas will help but even beyond him the rotation needs to get on track, and a little less shakiness from the bullpen would be nice. The Yankees are in a great spot. There are also a few things that need tidying up in the final third of the season.

2. Mining the news. Got a few newsy items and post-trade deadline nuggets I want to cover, so let’s dig in.

Severino unhappy about 60-day IL stint

As part of the Yankees’ post-deadline roster machinations, Luis Severino was placed on the 60-day injured list to open a 40-man roster spot. The move was made not long after he played catch for the first time as part of his rehab work, and all went well. “I was not happy. I was not expecting that … I think (Aaron Boone) knows,” Severino told Dan Martin about going on the 60-day injured list.

“I acknowledge without a doubt he was caught off guard,” Brian Cashman told Martin. “When we tried to walk through it with him with the calendar, he didn’t want to look at it. I think he’s a competitor. He just wants to pitch, but he’s not capable of pitching yet. It’s going to take time to get him back on line. We both wish he was healthy right now, both wish he was capable, but he’s not.’’

Severino was placed on the injured list July 14th, so the earliest he can return is Sept. 12th. That’s an off-day, so it’s really Sept. 13th. How's this for a possible rehab timeline?

• 1 week of catch (began this past Monday)
• 2 weeks of bullpen sessions
• 2 live batting practice/simulated games (figure 7-10 days for that)
• 2 rehab starts (figure 10 days total)

Just eyeballing the calendar, Severino’s second minor league rehab start would come the week of Sept. 5th, so not much has changed with the 60-day injured list move? That’s probably a conservative rehab schedule, but the Yankees should be conservative with Severino given his injury history and their AL East lead. The priority is being at full strength for October. No need to rush back for August or September.

As for Severino saying he’s unhappy, I’m totally fine with it. He missed so much time the last few years and I have to think being told he’ll miss even more time was a huge letdown. Joe Torre’s thing was, if you’re unhappy, go ahead and tell everyone you’re unhappy, and we’ll work it out afterward. Expecting everyone to pretend they’re okay with everything only creates frustrated players. Let them vent.

It’s on the Yankees to rein Severino in because he’s an animal and will go all-out to get himself back as quickly as possible, and that’s not the smart play with an injury of this nature (lat strains can ruin a season) and his injury history. One setback and Severino’s done for the season. Play it smart and take it slow. Severino’s unhappy and I get it, but it’s for the best.

(While on the subject, I gotta think Harrison Bader is a 60-day injured list candidate at this point. He’s been out since June 26th. Transfer him to the 60-day injured list and the earliest he could return is Aug. 25th. The Yankees hinted at a September return for Bader, so yeah, next time they need a 40-man roster spot, he’ll go to the 60-day injured list.)

Marlins wanted Peraza, Torres, or Volpe for Lopez

The Marlins asked about Oswald Peraza, Gleyber Torres, and Anthony Volpe in Pablo Lopez trade talks, reports Jon Heyman. Barry Jackson and Craig Mish say the Yankees were “closest” to getting Lopez, which is not the same thing as being close to getting him. Are we talking first and inches here, or were the Yankees looking at a fourth and 10 from the 35 with eight seconds left situation?

I will note the Marlins wanted Gavin Lux and prospects from the Dodgers for Lopez, according to Kevin Barral. Lux plays the outfield now and then but is primarily a second baseman, so asking the Yankees for Torres would track. The Marlins already have an All-Star second baseman (Jazz Chisholm). What would they do with Gleyber? Shortstop? Third base? Not my concern.

Heyman adds if a Lopez trade had gotten done, it would have been for prospects. That means Peraza. Gleyber’s not a prospect and the Yankees aren’t trading Volpe. Hard to think the Marlins would part for 2.5 years of a pitcher as good as Lopez for second tier prospects, but who knows. If you’re going to trade Peraza, Lopez is a pretty great pitcher to trade him for.

A prospect package would have been the way to go. A World Series contender like the Yankees should add to their MLB roster, not subtract from it, and I know the Yankees could have easily put DJ LeMahieu at second and Josh Donaldson at third full-time had they traded Torres. Keep the MLB players and trade the kids who are years away from having a big league impact.

(For what it’s worth, Heyman adds a rival executive said Jordan Montgomery has “been available for a while,” so it wasn’t a spur of the moment decision to trade him. In fact, Andy Martino says the Yankees and Mets agreed to a Montgomery for Zack Wheeler trade in July 2019, but the Mets backed out because Montgomery was still rehabbing from Tommy John surgery at the time.)

Yankees talked Torres with Brewers, Nationals

More Gleyber trade chatter. Brendan Kuty says Torres came up in trade talks with the Nationals about Juan Soto, and with the Brewers about Josh Hader. I assume Soto was an “everyone is on the table” situation. Did the Yankees offer Torres for Hader, or did the Brewers want Torres in a Hader trade? Hader was traded for a pretty meh package. The Yankees’ equivalent:

• LHP Robert Gasser: Chandler Champlain before he was traded for Andrew Benintendi
• RHP Dinelson Lamet: Deivi Garcia but much older? no good equivalent here
• LHP Taylor Rogers: Aroldis Chapman but way cheaper
• OF Esteury Ruiz: Estevan Florial

Milwaukee designated Lamet for assignment earlier this week too. That’s a pretty underwhelming return for 1.5 years of an elite closer, even one making huge dollars through arbitration ($11M this year). Regardless of the actual return, I wouldn’t have loved 2.5 years of Torres for 1.5 years of Hader. For certain teams, that trade would make sense. I don’t think the 2022 Yankees are one of those teams given the roster. (Torres is what, their fourth best hitter? Tough to subtract that guy.)

The Yankees have had interest in Hader at multiple trade deadlines and in multiple offseasons, so it’s no surprise they asked about him again. I thought he would be a primary target this coming offseason too with Chapman and Zack Britton hitting free agency, and Mike King still not out of the Tommy John surgery woods. Plug Hader in at closer and use Clay Holmes and Jonathan Loaisiga as firemen. That kinda thing. Now I assume the Padres will keep him.

My guess is the Brewers asked for Torres and the Yankees said thanks but no thanks. Look at what Milwaukee got for Hader. Don’t you think they would’ve jumped on Torres if the Yankees put him on the table? Maybe the Brewers don’t like Gleyber. Kolten Wong is a free agent after the season and their DH situation is a bit of a mess though. Torres would have been a nice fit short and long-term. I think the Brewers asked and the Yankees said no.

Phillies release Gregorius

The Phillies released Didi Gregorius on Thursday. He’s had an awful year, hitting .201/.263/.304 (57 wRC+) in 232 plate appearances with poor defensive numbers. It’s the third time Sir Didi has been replacement level (or worse) in the last four seasons. This is not playable:

As much as I would have liked the Yankees to get a lefty complement for Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa on the left side of the infield, I don’t think Gregorius is it. He’s been very bad and it isn’t a one-year thing. Maybe Didi is like Adam Warren and only plays well in pinstripes? I wouldn’t bet on it though. It’s been a while since he’s been a productive player.

On a minor league deal, sure, why not. Bring Gregorius aboard and stash him in Triple-A. I think anything more is a real stretch. Kiner-Falefa is the better player right now and Marwin Gonzalez’s versatility makes him a better fit for the roster. Gregorius has been so bad the last few years that there’s a chance he’s already played his final MLB game. He’s been that unproductive.

Red Sox release Bradley

Earlier Thursday the Red Sox released Jackie Bradley Jr. He’s still a top of the line defensive center fielder (who has been playing right in deference to young Jarren Duran) but the man can’t hit: .210/.257/.321 (58 wRC+) this year and .182/.244/.286 (45 wRC) the last two years. Only a 47 wRC+ against righties during that time too, so you can’t even platoon him.

The Yankees pursued Brett Phillips prior to the trade deadline and he’s very similar to Bradley as a no-bat/all-glove lefty swinger. With Bader still a few weeks away, could the Yankees bring in Bradley for whatever role they envisioned for Phillips? Sure, it’s possible. He’ll only cost the prorated minimum and you can squint your eyes and do the “the short porch will help him” thing.

I think the key difference between Phillips and Bradley is speed. Phillips is an elite runner while Bradley is average in sprint speed, first-to-home time, etc. Phillips is a better defender than Tim Locastro and his equal as a runner. Bradley is a better defender than Locastro but a big downgrade on the bases. How much do the Yankees value that speed for a potential postseason pinch-running role? My guess is a lot. I think they pass on Bradley.

(If the Yankees want a lefty hitting defensive stud in center who will swing through breaking balls until he’s blue in the face, why wouldn’t they just call up Estevan Florial instead of signing Bradley? I guess the answer is signing Bradley allows Florial to continue developing and playing everyday in Triple-A.)

(Alex Speier has a good Twitter thread explaining how the Red Sox screwed themselves with the Hunter Renfroe for Bradley plus prospects trade. I especially enjoy the part about how they’ll now only get a compensation draft pick after the fourth round when they let Xander Bogaerts leave as a free agent this winter rather than a supplemental first rounder.)

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Chris asks: Just a fun thought exercise… How would you rank the following three potential Judgian accomplishments from most likely to least likely to occur in 2022: a Triple Crown, breaking Bonds’s HR record, and a 4 HR game. All three are extreme long shots, but I’m curious what you think might be possible.

From most likely to least likely, I’ll say:

1. Four-homer game
2. Triple Crown
3. Single-season home run record

Aaron Judge has already set the franchise record with nine multi-homer games this season and he has another 56 bites at the four-homer game apple, including 25 in his team’s homer happy ballpark. The guys hitting in front of him will have to reach base to ensure the other team has to pitch to him, but I think this is most likely because Judge will have so many opportunities to do it. (I’m not saying it’s likely, just most likely among these three scenarios.)

Judge leads the American League in homers (by 13, lol) and RBI (by seven). His .298 AVG is 14th in the league, well behind leader Luis Arraez (.329). To win the batting title Judge will need to get hot while several others cool down. Yuli Gurriel won the batting title with a .319 AVG last year, the lowest for an AL batting champ since 1972. That’s a reasonable target. Judge has to get to .319 or so and Arraez has to dip below it.

As for breaking the single-season home run record, Judge needs 31 (!) homers in the team’s final 56 games. Judge has 26 homers in his last 56 games and that’s the most prolific 56-game home run stretch of his career. He has to not only maintain that pace, but improve on it, all while teams begin pitching around him, which is already happening. The Mariners did it several times earlier this week.

Ultimately, I think it’s more likely Judge runs into a BABIP hot streak hot enough to win the batting title and thus the Triple Crown than it is Judge hitting the 31 homers he needs to break Barry Bonds’ record. I mean, 31 homers is a great season, and Judge has to do it in a little less than two months. Doable? Maybe! I think a Triple Crown is more likely, and a four-homer game way more likely than that because he still has so many games to play.

Jason asks: If Judge hits 62 this year is he automatically a HOFer?

Nah. Roger Maris isn’t in the Hall of Fame and he held the single-season home run record for 40 years, plus he was a seven-time All-Star and two-time MVP. I just kinda assumed from the start Aaron Judge had little chance at the Hall of Fame because he started his career relatively late (25-year-old rookie in 2017) and wouldn’t have as much time to compile.

But maybe? Judge is at 201 homers and +32.4 WAR through his age 30 season with another two months to play. If he finishes with, say, 400 homers and +55 WAR, that puts him a little south of Vlad Guerrero’s totals, and Guerrero went in on the second ballot. The Hall of Fame voting body is skewing younger, leading to a greater emphasis on WAR and other advanced metrics.

Let’s say Judge retires after his age 38 season. He’ll hit the Hall of Fame ballot five years after that, and he can potentially stay on the ballot 10 years. Judge could still be on the Hall of Fame ballot come 2045! Who knows what the Hall of Fame voting body will look like in 2045? Maybe Judge will be the subject of a Bert Blyleven/Tim Raines-esque campaign and eventually get in after many years of supporters successfully changing minds.

Hitting 62 homers this year won’t automatically send Judge to the Hall of Fame. But it would add to his legacy, and with good health, yeah, you can kinda see the makings of a non-inner circle Hall of Fame career. Remember though, Hall of Fame careers are made in your 30s, not your 20s. David Wright and Andrew McCutchen were on the Hall of Fame path at one point too.

Sal asks: The list of players the Yanks have added to the 40 man roster before their time (risk of losing due to Rule 5 draft) is a pretty short one. The only one I can recall from recent memory is Jonathan Holder. Am I missing any others? Of course, I want Volpe called up to play SS in the majors on August 3rd but I know how unlikely it is.

ORIGINAL ANSWER: There are more than Sal remembers. Clarke Schmidt was called up in Sept. 2020, before he had to go on the 40-man roster that offseason. Mike King in Sept. 2019, Justus Sheffield in Sept. 2018, and Aaron Judge in Aug. 2016 are a few others. They were all called up later in the season in “we’re gonna have to put this guy on the 40-man anyway, so let’s get a look at him” situations.

(Chad Green and Jordan Montgomery were called up before having to go on the 40-man roster for Rule 5 Draft protection purposes, though they were all early season call ups, not guys getting a look at late in the season.)

Anthony Volpe has to go on the 40-man after the season and there’s no chance we’ll see him in September. Oswald Peraza is first in line for a shortstop call up. Maybe under the old September call up rules, when you could call up your entire 40-man roster, we’d see Volpe. Probably not, 40-man space is a little tight, but maybe. This year? Nah, no chance. Too bad.

UPDATED ANSWER: Holder was added to the 40-man and called up a full year before he was Rule 5 Draft eligible, not just a few months. The Yankees haven't done that since Holder (the last before him was Jacob Lindgren, Holder's former college teammate, in 2015) and it usually only happens with top draft picks and pitching prospects who blow up fast, kinda like Holder. I would think Will Warren has a chance to do it next year. We'll see.

Adding Volpe to the 40-man and calling him up now, a full year before he's Rule 5 Draft eligible, isn't happening. And it shouldn't. Jumping him over Triple-A would be a mistake and I don't think he's a better MLB player than Isiah Kiner-Falefa right now. It is a big, big jump from Double-A to the big leagues. Next year we can start wondering when Volpe will get called up. This year is too early.

Adam asks: This isn’t a Yankee question, it’s a general baseball question. At what point does Trout say “enough” and request a trade? He can’t really be thrilled with the Angels right now. In the unlikely event the Yankees decide to add big money, what bad contracts can we take on to lower prospect cost? Like splitting Moustakas to get Castillo, then DFAing Moose.

I’m tempted to say if Mike Trout hasn’t demanded a trade already, he never will, but I think the final straw might be Shohei Ohtani leaving as a free agent next year. I have no doubt the Angels will throw a boatload of money at him, but Ohtani is going to get paid either way, and he insists he wants to win. If he leaves, it will be to join a clear cut contender, and at that point Trout might say “you know what, I want out too.”

Trout has 10-and-5 no-trade protection, so he gets to choose his next team, and he’s owed $35.45M a year through 2030. Only a few teams can afford that. Trout is amazing, an inner circle Hall of Famer, but he turns 31 this weekend and now has a back condition he’ll have to monitor the rest of his career. At this point Trout carries more downside than upside. It’s a shame.

The Angels would have minimal leverage in a Trout trade because of the no-trade protection and the money. Their leverage boils down to “we’ll just keep him then,” but Trout requesting a trade and making it known he’s unhappy would render that moot. It’s another Giancarlo Stanton situation. The Angels will have to eat money or take money back (or both) and take nothing better than a Grade B prospect(s) to make it happen. Their leverage is minimal.

The age and back issue are scary, but Trout’s hitting .270/.368/.599 (168 wRC+) this year and it can plausibly be considered a down year. From a “go all-in on the short-term and worry about the future later” perspective, Trout would be an amazing addition to the 2023-24 Yankees. After that, yikes, but a declining Trout is still a top 10 player. Do what you have to do to make sure he’s on the field in October, and go for it the next few years. (Obviously bet against it happening.)

Gabriel asks: Mike, kind of odd to see a few trades this deadline where the visiting player was traded to the team they were going to play. The Vasquez on field interview was just awkward.

Here is the awkward Christian Vazquez interview Gabriel is talking about (JD Martinez later noted it was kinda strange Vazquez was in their hitters’ meetings that afternoon, then was traded to the opposing team.) Last year the Astros and Mariners made the Kendall Graveman/Abraham Toro swap while they were playing each other, so those guys just had to change dugouts.

The Yankees made the Andrew Benintendi trade right before they started a series against the Royals. Benintendi was already in New York at the team hotel when the trade was made. As best I can tell Benintendi, Vazquez (Red Sox to Astros), and Michael Fulmer (Tigers to Twins) were the only “he just has to change dugouts” trades at this year’s deadline.

Trading for players on the team you’re currently playing to cut down on travel costs must be the new market inefficiency, eh? In all seriousness, I don’t think there’s anything to this. Maybe there’s a little more motivation to get a deal to avoid facing a guy that series, but it really just boils down to coincidence. Your needs/targets and the schedule perfectly align sometimes.

(If you want to go back a few years and really dig deep, Gio Urshela only had to change dugouts in Triple-A when the Yankees got him from the Blue Jays. He was in Triple-A Buffalo’s lineup that afternoon, got scratched, was traded, then was in Scranton’s lineup that night.)

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)