May 20th, 2022: Locastro, Green, Britton, Gil, Rortvedt, Mailbag

UPDATE: I goofed on some of the math in the mailbag question about the improved base running. They're small changes that don't change anything in the big picture, though the numbers are correct now. My bad.

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As much as Thursday’s walk-off loss stunk, I can’t really complain about the Yankees losing their tenth game of the season on May 19th. Would’ve signed up for that in a heartbeat on Opening Day. I don’t have much to say about the Orioles series (Thursday’s bullpen meltdowns were unfortunate, the Yankees are still great, I hate the new left field in Camden Yards, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton rule, Joey Gallo went in the tank as soon as I wrote about him, Aaron Hicks isn’t even walking anymore, Mike King should go to the All-Star Game, etc.), so I’m gonna skip the weekday thoughts and use this as an opportunity to clear out the inbox and go heavy on mailbag questions. Let’s get to it.

1. Injury updates. The Yankees have been remarkably healthy to date, though they did get some bad news this week. More accurately, they had players exit games with injuries and are awaiting further evaluation to determine the extent of the bad news. Here are a few injury updates.

Locastro making progress

Let’s get the quick one out of way first: Tim Locastro (lat) has started swinging a bat and hitting off a tee and soft toss, according to Bryan Hoch. His rehab is going well thus far. Locastro has already been out 11 days, so he’s eligible to be activated at any time, though I imagine he’ll play a few minor league rehab games before rejoining the Yankees.

The Yankees still have 10 days to go on this 23 games in 22 days stretch. It ends Sunday, May 29th, the last day teams are allowed to carry 14 pitchers. Seems like things are lining up so that Locastro finishes his rehab right when the 13-pitch limit takes effect, allowing him to replace the 14th pitcher the Yankees seem to want to carry during this stretch. Either way, Locastro’s doing well.

Green exits with forearm discomfort

Bullpen stalwart Chad Green exited Thursday afternoon’s game with what the Yankees called “right forearm discomfort.” He’ll see the doctor Friday. Green made a pickoff throw to first base, called out catcher Kyle Higashioka, and Higashioka called for the trainer (video). He didn’t even get hurt making a pitch. It was a pickoff throw.

“The pickoff throw I was like ‘eh, that didn’t feel great.’ I had a little talk with myself and decided it was probably best to not move forward,” Green said after the game, adding he experienced the discomfort for the first time Thursday (video). “... Anytime you’re out there trying to compete in a high leverage situation and you’re not focused on executing pitches and worrying about other stuff, then you probably shouldn’t be out there.”

Forearm trouble is a common precursor to Tommy John surgery, but not always. I really, really hope it’s not that. Green blowing out his elbow six months before free agency would be positively cruel. He’s been one of the best (and most durable) relievers in baseball since arriving for good in 2017, and he’s done it while being paid a fraction of his actual worth. I want him to get paid.

Assuming Green misses time, the Yankees will need Jonathan Loaisiga to get his control sorted out so they don’t have to sweat his appearances as much, and it also might lead to more action for Wandy Peralta (and Clarke Schmidt?). Thursday was Peralta’s first outing in nine days. Wandy’s good! Aaron Boone should use him more to avoid Scott Proctoring Clay Holmes.

We should learn more about Green’s status soon, maybe even later Friday. I really hope this isn’t a Dellin Betances situation, where Green’s final season of team control and free agent stock are ruined by an injury. He deserves better.

Britton close to throwing off a mound

Zack Britton (Tommy John surgery) is making good progress with his rehab and could throw off a mound soon. “Doing really well. Throwing at 120 feet and could be in the bullpen soon,” Boone told Kristie Ackert. Britton had surgery in September and pitchers typically begin throwing at 30 feet after six months, then build up from there. He’s pretty much right on schedule.

These days the typical Tommy John surgery rehab is 14-16 months, though Britton insists he will return in September (who doesn’t say they will return as soon as possible?). Because he’s a reliever who doesn’t need to get stretched out, making it back in September is doable. Would I count on it? Nah. I’ll consider anything Britton gives the Yankees this year a bonus.

I do think that, even if he doesn’t make it back in September, there’s a decent chance the Yankees bring Britton back next season. He’s looking at a one-year prove yourself contract after the injury and given his age (35 in December), plus the Yankees love him in the clubhouse and he loves being a Yankee. Miguel Castro, Aroldis Chapman, and Green are all in their walk year. There will be openings in the 2023 bullpen. We’ll see. Worry about this in the offseason.

“I felt like the Yankees, (Brian) Cashman, took a shot on me and I want to hold up my end of the bargain,” Britton said after last season. “... I wouldn’t mind finishing my career here. So I don’t even want to come back (in September) to show other teams I’m still the pitcher I was before. The Yankees put a lot of faith in me and I want to do right by them.”

Gil injured in Triple-A

This is a bummer. Wednesday night Luis Gil left his start with Triple-A Scranton with an injury. He threw a pitch (82 mph slider), called the trainer, pointed to the inside of his elbow, and pulled himself from the game. That’s never good (GIF via Red Sox Stats):

I try not to speculate about injuries because I’ve been wrong so many times over the years, but pointing to the inside of the elbow is never good. The Yankees have not announced an update on Gil other than to say he’ll see the doctor Friday. Safe to assume he will be shut down for a bit no matter what. As always, hope for the best and brace for the worst.

For Gil, the timing stinks. This was his first Triple-A start since his MLB spot start last week. Had he gotten hurt against the White Sox instead of with the RailRiders, he could have gone on the Major League injured list and collected that sweet, sweet service time and big league pay. Alas, he’ll go on the Triple-A injured list and get none of those things. Sucks.

(Also, Green’s injury potentially opened the door for Gil to join the big league bullpen. I think he’s a reliever long-term, but it’s going to be hard to crack the current bullpen without an injury. The opportunity may be there now and Gil himself is hurt.)

For the Yankees, this takes away a depth arm, a depth arm they trust enough to give a spot start against a reigning division champ. Deivi Garcia is still struggling with the RailRiders, so No. 6 starter duties likely fall to Schmidt or Hayden Wesneski. Wesneski has been excellent in Triple-A: 2.31 ERA (3.12 FIP) with 27.1% strikeouts and 4.5% walks in 35 innings.

Gil does have an injury history. He missed the entire 2016 season with shoulder surgery while in the Twins system, and a biceps injury ended his 2019 in early August. He’s never had an elbow issue (assuming this is an elbow issue, it could be his forearm for all we know). I know it’s easy to assume the worst, but let’s just see what the tests say. Fingers crossed.

Rortvedt has knee surgery

Ben Rortvedt did indeed require knee surgery. He missed Spring Training with an oblique injury, started a rehab assignment last weekend, then was shut down with knee discomfort after two games. On Wednesday, the Yankees announced Rortvedt had a “meniscus clean-up” on his left knee. They say he's expected to return to game action in 6-8 weeks, so figure early July.

The Yankees seem happy with the Kyle Higashioka and Jose Trevino tandem (they keep winning, right?), but now Rortvedt won’t even be around as depth. Even if the Yankees were planning to send him to Triple-A once the oblique got healthy, he would have been available and playing and getting at-bats. Now he’ll miss roughly half the season. Sheesh.

Rortvedt is only 24 and losing all this time to injury is unfortunate. He’s a lefty bat and kinda sorta maybe possibly could be the long-term answer behind the plate. Squint your eyes and there’s reason to believe in the bat, and he’s regarded as an excellent framer. Between the pandemic, injuries, and time spent backing up in the big leagues, Rortvedt has 75 games played and 236 plate appearances since Opening Day 2020. That ain’t enough.

Rob Brantly figures to remain the third catcher for the time being. The Yankees also have David Freitas and Max McDowell in Triple-A and Freitas has big league experience, should they need to go that far down the depth chart. For now, it’ll continue to be Higashioka and Trevino. Rortvedt is not coming to push either guy anytime soon.

2. 2022 draft prospect: South Carolina HS 3B Tucker Toman. The 2022 MLB Draft will take place during the All-Star break and the Yankees hold the No. 25 pick. Here are the draft prospects we’ve already profiled. Some will be players the Yankees are reported to have interest in, some are players who fit the team’s M.O., and some are players I happen to like.

Toman has grown up around baseball. His father, Jim, is a longtime college coach who currently heads up the program at Middle Tennessee. He also had stops at Florida International, North Carolina State, South Carolina, Liberty, and College of Charleston in his 30-year career. Here are Tucker’s current draft rankings:

• Baseball America (subs. req’d): No. 70
• FanGraphs: No. 31
• Keith Law (subs. req’d): No. 30
• MLB.com: No. 51

Toman kinda flopped against top competition on the showcase circuit last summer, though he did well at Perfect Game’s event in October, and he’s impressed this spring. Jim Callis recently noted several teams have interest in Toman in the first round, including the Athletics with the No. 19 pick. Here’s video and here’s a snippet of MLB.com’s free scouting report:

A switch-hitter, Toman shows better bat speed with his left-handed stroke but is proficient from both sides of the plate. He understands his swing and barrels balls with ease when he just concentrates on making hard contact to all fields. He got too aggressive and pull-happy at times last summer but has the hittability, bat speed and strength for at least average and perhaps plus power without swinging for the fences.

Toman has the bat to profile all over the diamond, but it's unclear where he'll wind up with below-average speed and average arm strength. The best-case scenario would be third base, where his arm and hands might be a little light but he has the work ethic to possibly make it happen. Second base seems like a bigger stretch with his lack of quickness, and he could wind up on an outfield corner.

Toman lit up Trackman at Perfect Game last fall, ranking near the top of the class in the various measurables (exit velocity, 60-yard time, etc.). FanGraphs says his “contact-to-whiff ratios aren't bad over a large sample,” though they caution there’s “big variance here.” Kiley McDaniel (subs. req’d) adds “scouts are so sold on his makeup and hit/power combo … that it doesn't really matter where he plays (defensively).”

The Yankees haven’t gone the boom or bust route in the first round in a long time. Aaron Judge qualifies, though he was the second of three first rounders in 2013. The last boom or bust type they took with their top pick was Slade Heathcott in 2009. The Yankees tend to be conservative at the top of the draft now, but Toman has the measurables and makeup they like, and he’s now a first round candidate. It’s not hard to connect the dots.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. Couple notable minor league promotions earlier this week. First, RHP Carson Coleman was bumped up to Double-A Somerset. I wrote about him Tuesday, Brian Cashman read it, then promoted Coleman later in the day. I assume that's what happened, anyway. And second, and more importantly, LHP Ken Waldichuk was moved up to Triple-A Scranton. The promotion happened before RHP Luis Gil got hurt, and Waldichuk was dominant with the Patriots: 1.26 ERA (2.33 FIP) with 41.1% strikeouts, 8.9% walks, and 51.0% ground balls in 28.1 innings. Even with Gil hurt and RHP Clarke Schmidt in the big league bullpen, the Yankees have six viable starting pitchers in Scranton: Waldichuk, LHP Manny Banuelos, RHP Deivi Garcia, LHP Matt Krook, LHP JP Sears, and RHP Hayden Wesneski. The RailRiders are pretty stacked right now. They have nine – nine! – of my top 30 prospects on their roster, and Schmidt might as well be No. 10. Now that Waldichuk (and Coleman) has been moved up, can C Austin Wells get a promotion next? It’s overdue. (A promotion will have to wait because Wells was placed on High-A Hudson Valley’s injured list this week. Not sure what’s wrong with him.)

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Gabriel asks: How many games do the Yankees have to win or progress into the season before you eat a little crow? I know IKF is nowhere on a Carlos Correa level but how well are all of the free agent shortstops performing this year so far? Seager and Semien have truly underperformed so far. I’ve followed you for years and this off-season I don’t think I’ve ever read you bash Yankees management/ Cashman so much. Sitting on top of all of baseball with the stats to suggest this team is not a fluke feels amazing.

I’ll eat crow right now. The Yankees are better than I expected. In my defense, I did pick them to make a postseason run, so it’s not like I buried them as a fourth place team that looks like the current Red Sox. The Yankees have underwhelmed the last few years and they had what I considered an underwhelming offseason. It was not unreasonable to feel tepid.

You’re not gonna get me to budge on the shortstop thing. Isiah Kiner-Falefa is what he is, and that’s the fourth best shortstop in the AL East and the ninth or maybe tenth best shortstop in the American League*. I’m not a “the Yankees are winning and therefore everything is fine” person. The Yankees would be more likely to keep up this pace with Correa or Corey Seager at short.

* In no particular order I would take Correa, Seager, Tim Anderson, Bo Bichette, Xander Bogaerts, JP Crawford, Wander Franco, and Jeremy Pena over Kiner-Falefa. Maybe Javy Baez too. A few of them have underperformed to date, but over the long 162-season, I’d want those guys over Kiner-Falefa. You’re welcome to disagree.

The Yankees are not perfect (the offense has an annoying knack for going quiet for long stretches within a game) but no team is. They’re better than I expected though, for sure. Going into Thursday’s game the Yankees ranked fourth in runs scored per game (4.89) and first in runs allowed per game (2.86). They’ve exceeded my expectations on both sides of the ball.

Also, as good as they’ve been, the Yankees have room for improvement. They’re not getting much offensively from four positions (catcher, shortstop, left and center fields) and Aroldis Chapman has been an adventure. They’ve won as much as they have despite not firing on all cylinders. The Yankees are very good and nothing about them feels fluky or unsustainable.

Dan asks (short version): I understand it’s only late May and I’m trying to keep things in perspective. What do I need to do to not get ahead of myself in terms of the Yankees and October/November?

Just enjoy the ride. That’s all I can say. We couldn’t ask the Yankees to have a better start and we also can’t fast forward to October, so just enjoy the winning and the dingers and the pitching in the meantime. This sure beats last year, doesn’t it? Even when the Yankees were playing well last season, they never felt as legit or as complete as this year.

It is a long, long season. The Yankees still have 76.5% of their schedule to play! If the 162-game season was a nine-inning game, there would be two outs in the top of the third inning right now. All I can say is enjoy it. The Yankees are playing well and they’re fun, and compared to most of the rest of the league, that’s great. I’m not sure any fan base has it better right now.

James asks (short version): What are your concerns that the Yankees have not played a single team with both a winning record and positive run differential?  The first such game will be in New York on May 31st against Anaheim (Tampa could have a winning record and positive run differential before May 26th).

Concern is not the right word. It’s just context. The Yankees have only played 13 games against projected top tier teams (nine against the Blue Jays and four against the White Sox), and they’re 9-4 in those games. The Blue Jays and White Sox have underperformed this year (and not just when they’ve played the Yankees), so yeah, the Yankees have had a pretty favorable schedule. Only the Twins and Rays have had it easier. It is what it is.

Baseball Prospectus adjusts their stats for quality of competition (among many other things), so here’s what the Yankees look like on both sides of the ball once you strip away the soft schedule:

• 11% better than average on the mound (third best in MLB)
• 10% better than average offensively (best in MLB)

Those same adjustments say Yankees opponents are almost exactly league average offensively this season. On the mound, they’re about 6% worse than average, third worst in MLB. So yes, the Yankees have faced weak competition, especially weak pitching. That said, their adjusted numbers are great. The Yankees are playing very well relative to the competition.

The road to the AL East title is paved with wins against bad and underperforming teams, and the Yankees didn’t always do what they needed to do against those “teams you’re supposed to beat” the last few years. Eventually they’ll hit a skid because every team hits a skid (the Dodgers lost five of six to the Pirates and Phillies last week). If it happens against a string of good teams, people will freak out. It’s inevitable, but don’t drive yourself crazy worrying about it preemptively.

The schedule will toughen up soon. Starting Thursday the Yankees will play 20 of their next 29 games against the Angels, Astros, Blue Jays, and Rays (plus three games against the Twins, if you think they’re legit). They also have another 20 games in 20 days stretch coming next month, so the depth will be tested. My biggest concern going forward is health. The Yankees won’t play at a 119-win pace all year, but as long as they keep their guys on the field, they’ll win a lot.

Joseph asks: Hey was wondering if you had any thoughts or data on the Yankees baserunning thus far? Granted it’s a small sample size with 27 games played thus far. Seemed like that was a major issue last year in that they kept running into outs on the basepaths. In the early going it looks like they are stealing more bases, although that may slow down with Locastro on IL. Are there any stats to show if they are running into more or less outs, how is Rojas doing as 3B coach?

Going into Thursday’s game FanGraphs had the Yankees at -0.1 runs on the bases, which was 14th in MLB and is essentially perfectly average. Last year they were 29th at -15.1 runs, and going from atrocious to league average represents a massive improvement. We’ve seen some great plays on the bases (like this one) and some not so great plays on the bases (like this one).

The Yankees are indeed stealing more bases this year. They are 22-for-29 (76%) stealing bases, which is 0.76 attempts per game. Last year they went 63-for-18 (78%) stealing bases, or 0.50 attempts per game. Aaron Hicks, Tim Locastro, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa lead the team with five steals each and, given how much time Hicks and Locastro missed last year, those are essentially three new players. The personnel change has helped.

Last year the Yankees led baseball in outs at home (22) and were eighth in outs on the bases (50). This year they’re 11th in outs at home (three, on pace for 13) and sixth in outs on the bases (12, on pace for 51). That last part surprised me. Doesn’t seem like that many. Anyway, it’s difficult to isolate the third base coach’s performance, but here’s my attempt:

Runner at second when a single is hit
2021: 65% send rate and 96% score rate
2022: 67% send rate and 86% score rate
MLB average: 66% send rate and 94% score rate

Runner at first when a double is hit
2021: 37% send rate and 94% score rate
2022: 52% send rate and 83% score rate
MLB average: 47% send rate and 94% score rate

Just to be clear, these numbers mean that league-wide, 66% of runners at second base are sent home on a single, and those runners score 94% of the time. Unfortunately these numbers include infield singles, so a runner at second who can only advance to third on an infield single counts as a runner who was not sent home. It’s not perfect, but nothing is.

Last year the Yankees were average with a runner at second when a single is hit. This year they have a below average score rate, but it’s a really small sample. Just one more runner being safe at home bumps the score rate up to 91%. Last year the Yankees were less aggressive sending a runner home from first on a double than the league average, which is understandable given the personnel. This year they're more aggressive, but again, small sample caveats apply this year (they’ve only hit 20 doubles with a runner at first).

The Yankees really struggled offensively at times last season, so they took more chances on the bases, particularly when Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton weren’t due up. That doesn’t just mean waving around more runners on hits. It also means sending a runner home on the contact play, which backfired quite a bit. The 2021 Yankees were reckless out of necessity at times.

If nothing else, the Yankees look more competent on the bases this season, and the FanGraphs catch-all base running stat reflects real improvement. They’re not a great base running team, but they’ve improved quite a bit since last season. That’s pretty much the story of the 2022 Yankees, right? They addressed their weaknesses and no longer have a glaring deficiency.

Daniel asks: Is there a historical comparison to Nestor? Bounced around journeyman with more than 1 DFA suddenly turning into Cliff Lee?

There aren’t many at all, and the ones I can come up with all found success later in their careers thanks to a new or improved pitch(es). Nestor Cortes added a cutter and improved his slider the last two years (and also got into better shape, which contributed to more velocity). That’s pretty much where all these stories start. The guy makes a big change somewhere along the line.

The best recent example is probably Rich Hill. He bounced around a bunch and battled the yips from 2005-14, then became one of the first guys to understand spin, and use it to improve. Hill was much older than Cortes when he figured it out (Hill was 35, Cortes is 27), but they both used analytics to go from nondescript one year to impact guy the next.

R.A. Dickey is an outlier as a knuckleball guy, but he was a traditional pitcher early in his career. He even broke into the big leagues as a traditional pitcher. It wasn’t until he got released a few times that he committed to the knuckleball and carved out the Cy Young winning second phase of his career. Dickey went full-time knuckleballer at age 29, so a little older than Cortes is now.

Jamie Moyer got released a whole bunch of times early in his career. He didn’t have his breakout season until he was 34. Moyer was never a hard thrower, and it wasn’t until he really mastered the changeup that he stuck around. Given his age and how long he pitched, Moyer is a one of a kind player. Still, it follows the “cut a bunch of times before figuring it out” storyline.

Dave Stewart fits too. He got traded a few times early in his career and was eventually released at age 29. Stewart then hooked on with the Athletics, learned a splitter, then went on a four-year run in which he finished no lower than fourth in the Cy Young voting. Hill fits best because he’s another analytics-driven success story. Dickey, Moyer, and Stewart are older school versions.

There’s a (very good) chance I’m missing a more obvious comparison for Cortes. If I am, let me know. The larger point is what Cortes is doing is rare but not unprecedented. There have been others who were so bad early in their careers that they got released, only for it to click later on. That’s encouraging. Guys like Dickey, Hill, Moyer, and Stewart having the success they did for several years show it’s possible for Nestor to have staying power.

Jonathan asks: Small sample size and all, but assume that Gleyber keeps up this production the rest of the year. So we don't go back to the years when he was a bigger power threat than Stanton, but he's a much better hitter than, well, the Gleyber of the first half of last year. What do the Yankees do with him? Trade? If not, then long term how do things work on the infield?

Why not keep Gleyber Torres and continue the rotating infielder plan? Josh Donaldson is 36 and DJ LeMahieu turns 34 in July, and they’re under contract next year (longer in LeMahieu's case). Being able to give them rest without subbing in a true bench player type is a luxury. The rotating infielder plan is working well this season …

• Donaldson: .252/.361/.439 (141 wRC+) and 3.8 plate appearances per team game
• LeMahieu: .267/.347/.382 (121 wRC+) and 3.9 plate appearances per team game
• Torres: .241/.286/.431 (109 wRC+) and 3.3 plate appearances per team game

… and with two mid-30s infielders on the roster, including one with a long history of leg injuries, keeping Torres as depth is a wise move. That doesn’t mean you ignore trade calls. Some team might offer you an impact pitcher or maybe a center fielder. I don’t think having five infielders for four infield spots is a problem though. Things are working well the way they are.

Colin asks: If the Nats are actually 'compelled' to trade Soto per Buster Olney what possible package could the Yankees put together? Everything would have to be on the table, no? MTPS but like: Gleyber, Volpe, Dominguez, Wells, Medina, Schmidt... like where does it end and would anything the Yankees have realistically get it done? And then from there, would they do it?

Olney’s report boils down to “rival executives want the Nationals to trade one of the best players in the world, preferably to them.” It’s not a hard rumor that the Nationals are shopping or even listening to offers for Juan Soto. It’s just officials with other teams pointing out Washington is very bad and likely will be bad for another few years, and Soto will be a free agent after 2024 (and he's already turned down one huge extension offer).

As bad as the Nationals are, I think trading Soto would be completely crazy. It’s a heck of a lot easier to rebuild a farm system than it is to have arguably the best hitter of the generation on your roster through his prime years (Soto is still only 23!). You sign that guy to a monster contract extension then worry about where you're going to build the statue. You're not going to regret it.

If the Nationals do make Soto available, it’s an “everyone is on the table” situation. Anthony Volpe, Jasson Dominguez, Mike King, Gleyber Torres, literally anyone. Even Aaron Judge! Judge didn’t sign an extension, and if the Nationals say we’ll trade you Soto but we need Judge in return, don’t you do that? Soto is one of the few players who can match (or even exceed) Judge’s production, plus he’s so much younger and under control so much longer. Judge for Soto is a yes.

This would be a good opportunity for the Yankees to use their financial might. The Nationals still owe Stephen Strasburg roughly $166M through 2026 and he’s made seven starts since 2019 due to injuries. Do you take that on to lower the prospect cost for Soto? If that’s too much, what about the $76M or so they owe Patrick Corbin through 2024? Corbin is terrible but at least he’s healthy and pitching. Maybe the Yankees can turn him into a usable reliever?

I see a potential Soto trade as another Miguel Cabrera trade. Cabrera was so productive at such a young age with precocious hitting ability. You trade whatever you have to trade to get him, then enjoy Hall of Fame caliber production for another 15-20 years. When you trade prospects for a star, the team that gets the star almost always wins the trade. Entering Soto trade talks with an untouchables list means you’re hugging prospects too hard. Do whatever it takes to get him.

Rob asks: Given Adell's struggles, do you see him as a potential change of scenery candidate in the offseason with the recent breakout of Taylor Ward ?

I’m not really sure what the Angels plan to do with Jo Adell. They sent him back to Triple-A a few weeks ago and he’s a career .282/.343/.550 (114 wRC+) hitter in 110 games at that level. Adell, a .207/.249/.351 (64 wRC+) hitter in 338 big league plate appearances, needs to face MLB pitching to continue his development, though I get the Angels not wanting to deal with the growing pains when they’re trying to reach the postseason for the first time since 2014.

I worry Adell’s contact (or lack thereof) is a fatal flaw. His in-zone contact rate (career 72.5%) is on par with Joey Gallo’s, though he doesn’t walk, doesn’t have the same kinda power, and is a comically poor defender. He’s a great athlete and yet a terrible outfielder who takes bad routes and has balls clank off of his glove on even the most basic plays. It’s hard to believe.

Adell is only 23 and he has some hard-hit ability (career 9.1% barrel rate), but a 32.8% strikeout rate and a 4.9% walk rate is hard to shake, especially when it’s 30.0% strikeouts and 7.7% walks in Triple-A (so not much better). Hitting the ball hard is great. Will Adell ever have the plate discipline and make the swing decisions necessary to turn that hard-hit ability into production? I’m not sure.

Taylor Ward’s breakout at age 28 is one of the biggest stories of the young season and a reminder you shouldn’t be quick to give up on talented players. Ward also displayed top notch plate discipline in the minors. Adell is still learning that part of that game. He seems like the ideal change of scenery target for, say, the Nationals or Pirates. A team deep in a rebuild with at-bats to give and patience to show.

The future of the Yankees outfield is an open question. Adell could be a solution. That will depend on a) do the Yankees believe they can get the most out of his talent, and b) what do the Angels want in return? A busted prospect for busted prospect trade could work (Adell for Deivi Garcia?), but my guess is Anaheim will want immediate help for their MLB roster, not another problem to solve. Teams hate giving up on recent top prospects, so you might have to overwhelm them with an offer to get Adell.

I am intrigued, with the caveat Adell has very serious flaws. Poor plate discipline, poor contact rates, and poor defense is a tough profile to overcome. Adell is going to have to hit for massive power to make what will likely be a low OBP and negative defense work. That isn’t to say he can’t fix it. Just that this guy is a big roll of the dice at the moment.

Steve asks: About a year ago I asked who would be the next player that the Yankees sign away from the Red Sox, and you said Matt Barnes. I’ll ask this again, who do you think is the next future Yankee on that team? There aren’t really any great answers but Rafael Devers has improved defensively based on OAA. He’d require a 10 year deal probably but with the short porch, he might hit out 50 and he’d fit nicely in between Aaron Judge and Giancarlo. Also, the Yankees have a ton of money coming off the books over the next couple of years. Donaldson, Britton, Chapman, Gallo, etc. Devers might seriously get an AAV of just 5M more than Donaldson.

Good memory! I completely forgot about that Red Sox question.

I answered a mailbag question about Rafael Devers recently and his free agency lines up perfectly with Josh Donaldson’s (and Anthony Rizzo’s) contract expiring. It also seems to line up with the next time the Yankees will duck under the luxury tax threshold. They look to be on a three-year luxury tax cycle (2018, 2021, 2024, etc.), and a bunch of money coming off the books after 2023 probably isn’t a coincidence. Signing Devers may not jibe with the payroll plan even though his lefty power would look great in Yankee Stadium.

If the Yankees sign Aaron Judge to an extension, we can safely rule out a huge money guy like Devers or Xander Bogaerts (Bogaerts can opt out of his contract after this season). The rest of the Red Sox roster is really unimpressive, isn’t it? Would the Yankees have interest in Christian Vazquez behind the plate? Feels like the guys they have can give them similar production for a fraction of the cost. Enrique Hernandez as a utility guy?

The Yankees haven’t signed a prominent Red Sox player since Jacoby Ellsbury and I don’t think they’ll sign another one anytime soon. My guess: Triston Casas. Boston’s top prospect is a lefty hitting first baseman with power and he should be up later this year. Figure Casas hits the market at age 28 after the 2028 season, and the Yankees pounce. That’s my pick because the current Red Sox roster is pretty weak beyond the big names.

Matthew asks: Do you think there's a chance the Yankees move Chapman before the deadline? Obviously have a lot of depth in the major league bullpen and I think Gil and Schmidt can be weapons like Mike King out of the pen.

I would strongly bet against it because Aroldis Chapman has 10-and-5 no-trade protection, so he can veto any trade, and he’s said he wants to stay with the Yankees. Maybe he struggles so much and things get so bad that he’d welcome the change of scenery, but I don’t think that’ll be the case. I think Chapman will stay because Chapman wants to stay.

Hypothetically, let’s say Chapman tells the Yankees he’ll waive his 10-and-5 rights and accept a trade. Even then, a few things need to line up just right:

• Chapman has to be pitching well enough to be an in-demand trade candidate.
• Since he’s pitching well, the Yankees would have to be confident they can replace him.
• As a free agent-to-be, only other contenders will want him. Count out rebuilders.
• The money has to be worked out (Chapman’s making $16M this year).
• The return has to be worked out (what does a rental reliever fetch?).

Trading Chapman is a Catch-22 because he has to pitch well to have trade value, yet the better he pitches, the more the Yankees will want to keep him. They’re trying to win a World Series and an effective Chapman helps the cause. Would they eat a ton of money just to unload Chapman if he’s ineffective? Eh, maybe. Who’d want him without a sweetener in that case? What kinda prospect(s) are you willing to give up to dump a rental reliever?

Like it or not, the Yankees view Chapman as an impact reliever when he’s right, and their priority is getting him right, not replacing him. The 10-and-5 rights make a trade very unlikely right out of the gate. Even if it were possible, it’d be tough to line everything up in such a way that results in the Yankees being a better team. An effective Chapman is close to impossible to replace.

Jack asks: I'm no fan of Boone as a tactician, but I feel like he's had some good moments this season, including his willingness to warm someone up quickly the second Chapman shows any signs of wildness. Can you ever remember a time covering the Yankees where you've so often seen a reliever start warming up while a closer is in the game?

This is a bit of a problem right? If you have to keep warming someone up behind your closer, he probably shouldn’t be your closer. I don’t remember seeing the Yankees ever warm up a reliever behind their closer as often as they have this year because I’ve spent the last 25 years watching Mariano Rivera, David Robertson, Andrew Miller, and peak Chapman. We’ve been spoiled in the ninth inning. Give Aaron Boone credit for being more proactive when Chapman doesn’t have it this year. In the past, he’d leave him out there to make a huge mess (and allow a run or two) before getting someone hot. This year there’s action at the first sign of trouble.

Matt asks: Before Joey Gallo’s two run home run on Sunday he had 4 HRs and 5 RBI (Now 5 Hrs and 7 RBI). Has there ever been someone with like 30Home runs and 40 RBIs in a season?

Gallo is sitting on five home runs and seven runs batted in through 38 team games. The fewest RBI in a 30-homer season is 59 and there’s a four-way tie. All recent players too:

• Cedric Mullins, 2021 Orioles
• Kyle Schwarber, 2017 Cubs
• Curtis Granderson, 2016 Mets
• Jedd Gyorko, 2016 Cardinals

Mullins, Granderson, and Schwarber all spend a chunk of the season batting leadoff, hence the lack of RBI (especially Granderson and Schwarber in the non-DH league). Gyorko was more of a bottom of the lineup guy and he only hit .236 with men on base that season (.230 with runners in scoring position), so homers were the only way he was driving in runs.

Believe it or not, the Yankees record for fewest RBI in a 30-homer season belongs to Mickey Mantle. He had 31 homers and 75 RBI in 1959 (Gary Sanchez is next with 34 homers and 77 RBI in 2019). Mantle drove in no fewer than 92 runs every other year from 1953-61. The 75 RBI season sticks out like a sore thumb. Weird. It’s not like he was injured either. He played 144 games that season. Just one of those years I guess.

Gallo holds the record for the fewest RBI in a 40-homer season. He hit 41 homers with 80 RBI in 2017. No other player has had fewer than 90 RBI in a 40-homer season. The fewest in a 50-homer season is 110 RBI by Brady Anderson in 1996. There have only been eight 60-homer seasons and Barry Bonds has the record low with 137 RBI in 2001, his 73-homer season.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)