April 29th, 2022: Rizzo, Stanton, Loaisiga, Schmidt, Yankees Letter, Mailbag

The Yankees have already done something this season they did not do once last season: spend a day in first place. They’ve been alone in first place since Wednesday’s win and it’s the first time they’ve been in sole possession of first place in the AL East since Aug. 19th, 2020. That was 24 games into the 60-game season. Getting into first place is easy, especially in April. Staying there is the hard part. Time to work on that. To today’s post.

1. Weekday observations. Hooray for treating the Orioles like the Orioles. That series was a throwback to 2019. The Yankees swept the homestand and have won six straight games, and eight of their last nine games. The pitching’s been great, the defense has been solid, and the offense is waking up. Good vibes right now. Some thoughts on the last few games.

Three dingers for Rizzo

I repeat what I said earlier this week: I wonder what convinced the Yankees they would be okay without any quality lefty bats from like 2019 through the 2021 trade deadline. Anthony Rizzo had the short porchiest three-homer game ever Tuesday night (video), and I don’t mean that in a bad way. Short porch homers rule. Crazy the Yankees didn’t prioritize them for so long.

"I was just shocked," Rizzo told Bryan Hoch about his third homer, which prompted this reaction. "I’ve never hit three homers in a game. It was a cool way for it to come back and be fair. I thought there was a 0% chance that it would be fair."

Rizzo’s home runs traveled 346, 378, and 327 feet. That’s 1,051 feet combined. It’s the shortest three-homer game of the Statcast era, edging out Brandon Lowe’s 1,092-foot three-homer game last year (at Yankee Stadium, of course). ESPN says it’s the shortest three-homer game dating back to 2006. May the short porch give us a sub-1,000-foot three-homer game one day. Would be a hoot.

As noted, Rizzo had a 346-foot homer and a 327-foot homer Tuesday night. Here’s how many sub-350-foot homers Yankees lefties have hit in the Bronx the last few seasons. I triple-checked this because I didn’t believe it:

• 2022: 2 (both Rizzo on Tuesday)
• 2021: 3 (Joey Gallo, Estevan Florial, and Rougned Odor)
• 2020: 2 (Aaron Hicks and Tyler Wade in the 60-game season)
• 2019: 1 (Brett Gardner)
• 2018: 4 (all Didi Gregorius)
• 2017: 12 (spread among Gardner, Gregorius, Hicks, Ji-Man Choi, Jacoby Ellsbury, Greg Bird, and Chase Headley)

Three sub-350-foot homers by Yankees lefties in Yankee Stadium in 2021. Three. The Rays had three (Lowe had two and Austin Meadows had one). The Mariners had two (Jarred Kelenic and Kyle Seager) and they were in town for four games. Three in 81 games. Three! And only one in 2019? The same year MLB rewrote the home run record books? Goodness.

Ignoring lefty bats – ignoring your ballpark’s strengths – was an all-time dumb and arrogant move by the front office. Brian Cashman & Co. said the focus was on the best hitters, not handedness, and their righties were good at going to right field anyway. On paper, it made sense. I could buy it. I did buy it! On the field, it didn’t work. The Yankees realized they had to adjust last year.

Rizzo leads baseball with eight home runs and, since joining the Yankees, he’s hit .260/.360/.520 (151 wRC+) at Yankee Stadium and .243/.341/.449 (112 wRC+) on the road. That’s how it should be for a Yankees lefty. Hit well on the road and like you’re playing MLB The Show on rookie at home. Short porch homers will get you to heaven. Hopefully more are on the way.

"I think he likes hitting at Yankee Stadium," Aaron Boone told Dan Martin about Rizzo. "I think tonight sealed it, that it’s definitely a place he likes to hit."

Stanton’s 350th

Giancarlo Stanton hit a home run on Opening Day, a home run the next day, then had three hits the day after that. He then slipped into a 7-for-46 (.152) slump. Stanton is starting to come around, going 5-for-11 in the Orioles series, and hitting his 350th career home run Wednesday night (video). He’s the seventh fastest to 350 homers:

1. Mark McGwire: 1,280 games
2. Juan Gonzalez: 1,298
3. Alex Rodriguez: 1,301
4. Harmon Killebrew: 1,319
5. Albert Pujols: 1,320
6. Babe Ruth: 1,329
7. Giancarlo Stanton: 1,341

Because of injuries, Stanton played only 74 games in his age 25 season and 18 games in his age 29 season. Had he stayed healthy during those peak years, does he break McGwire’s record? Maybe. Either way, getting to 350 homers faster than all but six others in history is pretty impressive. Even with injuries and the pandemic, Stanton still has a shot at 500 homers.

"It’s pretty cool," Stanton told Hoch about hitting his 350th homer. "When I began this journey, I didn’t really know what to expect or where I’d be, or how long I’d be around. So it’s a cool feat, and it helped us get a win."

Last season Giancarlo went through a 4-for-36 (.111) slump in April, then hit .287/.368/.539 in his final 124 games. We’ve seen Stanton long enough to know he’s going to have these ugly 40-something at-bat stretches throughout the season. When he’s not slumping though, Stanton will carry the offense. He’s starting to round into form now.

"That was a completely different player, to be honest," Stanton told Hoch when asked how he’s evolved since his rookie year in 2010. "My stance was completely open. I was weighed down. I was swinging as hard as I could, every pitch. Sometimes I get back to that, but I’m just learning and evolving from that person. There’s still plenty of room to evolve."

(Weird thing about Stanton’s season: two walks in 74 plate appearances, and the second walk came Thursday. Stanton has a 2.7% walk rate. It was 10.9% last year and 11.5% for his career. Feels like he has an 8-9 walk series coming at some point to get that rate back to respectability.)

Loaisiga’s rough start to 2022

Jonathan Loaisiga turned in his best outing of the young season Thursday afternoon, striking out three in 1.1 scoreless innings. He was having a pretty rough start to the season prior to that. These were the numbers going into Thursday:

• Six runs allowed in 6.2 innings. Also allowed three of seven inherited runners to score.
• Five walks in eight appearances (issued his fifth walk in his 19th appearance last year).
• Two homers allowed (allowed three all last season).
• Only 40.0% ground balls (60.9% last year).

Loaisiga’s location has been poor. He’s thrown only 47.1% of his pitches in the zone (52.8% last year), and it seems like when he’s missed, he’s either missed way off the plate for an easy take, or hung the pitch middle-middle. Pitching coach Matt Blake was refreshingly honest earlier this week, and admitted Loaisiga’s stuff is down.

“His velocity will go up as we go on, but so far his slider hasn’t had as much lateral break and his sinker hasn’t been sinking as much. He just hasn’t been as sharp,” Blake told Dan Martin. “...  There are little things we have to iron out and get him back to where he can open up different options and not be one-dimensional by pitching up and in and then slider away. He’s not quite the same version (as last year).”

Loaisiga’s average sinker velocity is down 1.1 mph, though it’s still sitting 97.2 mph in the early going, which is plenty good. The larger issue is the movement on his slider. Loaisiga’s sinker and changeup movement are more or less in line with last season. The slider isn’t moving as much though. Here’s the movement graph:

On average, Loaisiga is getting two fewer inches of horizontal movement and two fewer inches of vertical movement on his slider this year compared to last. The sweeper isn’t sweeping as much, basically. Batters hit .098 with an .098 SLG (!) and a 50.0% whiff rate against Loaisiga’s sweeper last year. Going into Thursday, it was a .375 AVG with a .563 SLG and a 37.5% whiff rate this year.

As long as there’s no underlying injury (Loaisiga seems healthy), I trust the Yankees to fix a pitch shape issue. They’re pretty good at this stuff. Loaisiga’s sweeper was so good last year that it’s unrealistic to expect that again (no extra base hits and a 50% whiff rate!), but It can be better – a lot better – than it has been in the early going.

Eventually the Yankees will need Loaisiga to dominate and be a high leverage weapon. For now, they can roll with Clay Holmes and Mike King (and Chad Green) in those situations until Loaisiga gets himself straightened out. Such is the advantage of a deep bullpen. As long as he’s healthy, I expect the Yankees and Loaisiga to figure this out. I don’t think we’re close to panic time yet.

"You’re gonna take lumps at some point," Boone told Martin. "He’s taken some shots here early in the season. I’m not overly alarmed. All the equipment is there. The stuff is there. He’s just got to dial in his command. He’ll have to fight through this stretch when he’s gotten popped a little bit and we have to make sure he understands how good a pitcher he is."

Miscellany

Josh Donaldson is hitting .197/.312/.348 and it’s a 103 wRC+. This is not commentary about Donaldson. It’s about the state of baseball. A dude who plays home games in homer happy Yankee Stadium is hitting .197/.312/.348, and it’s 3% better than average. Bring back the rocket ball, please … This ultimately did not matter, but I’m mildly annoyed Boone didn’t let King finish Wednesday’s game. He’d thrown 34 pitches in 2.1 innings (season high is 45 pitches) and was cruising. King was going to be unavailable for a few days after that anyway. Might as well max him out. Instead, Boone went to Holmes for the ninth inning, which took him out of action Thursday because he’d pitched back-to-back days. Just because it’s a save situation, you don’t have to bring in a new pitcher to get the save! It’s April and I get there’s no reason to push King this early in the season. Hopefully once we get a little deeper in the summer months, Boone and the Yankees take the reins off, and let King go four innings and 50 pitches, something like that.

2. The case for demoting Schmidt. This coming Monday rosters shrink down to 26 players, though earlier this week MLB and the MLBPA announced they have agreed to allow teams to carry up to 14 pitchers until May 29th. The 13-pitcher/13-position player can has been kicked down the road again. It’s fine. Better to have too many arms than not enough.

Ron Marinaccio was sent down following Thursday’s game, and because the 10-day rule doesn’t become the 15-day rule until Monday, the Yankees can bring back JP Sears. I guess they could just activate Aaron Hicks off the paternity list to fill Marinaccio’s spot. Do the Yankees really need another pitcher? Clarke Schmidt barely pitches as it is (three appearances in 19 games).

Whatever happens with Marinaccio’s spot, the Yankees have to drop two players come Monday. Schmidt and either Miguel Andujar (if he's sent down for Hicks) or the pitcher who replaces Marinaccio are the obvious calls, but the rules allow the Yankees to keep Schmidt as their 14th pitcher. He’s pitched well when he has pitched, so it could happen. I think sending him down would be smart though, for a few reasons.

First, the Yankees have scheduled off-days coming on Thursday, May 5th, and Monday, May 9th. That’s three days and seven days after rosters shrink. The built-in rest means the Yankees can lean on their key relievers without worrying (as much) about overworking them. The 14th pitcher might sit unused in the bullpen for 7-10 days. Maybe longer. Do we want Schmidt sitting more?

Also, if the Yankees need a long man at some point after Schmidt is sent down, they can call up someone else. There’s always long men available. Could be Sears if he’s not coming up to replace Marinaccio. Or Luis Gil. Or Matt Krook. Or Manny Banuelos. The Yankees are not short on long man options, and no one will miss David McKay if he’s dropped from the 40-man roster.

Second, Gil and Deivi Garcia have struggled in Triple-A, so much so that they’re probably not first (or second or even third) in line to be recalled when the Yankees need a sixth starter. And they will need a sixth starter at some point. It’s inevitable. Sending Schmidt down allows him to get a) regular work, and b) stretched out so he can be the sixth starter.

And third, following that off-day on Monday, May 9th, the Yankees will play 20 games in 20 days. I would bet the farm they’re planning to use a spot sixth starter at some point during that stretch to give the five regular starters a little breather (particularly Luis Severino given his injury history). We’ve seen the Yankees do that plenty the last few years. Expect them to do it again.

Let’s take a second to map it all out assuming Schmidt is sent down Monday. The pitching plan over the next few weeks could then look like this:

The minor league affiliates are using six-man rotations this season, and with the Monday off-day every week, the starters are on a once a week schedule. The weather hasn’t always cooperated, but Krook generally starts on Tuesday for Triple-A Scranton, Hayden Wesneski on Wednesday, Garcia on Thursday, so on and so forth. I have Schmidt on Friday with the RailRiders, but it can be whenever, really.

The Yankees don’t have to follow that schedule exactly, but you get the idea. Use a spot sixth starter at some point during that 20 games in 20 days stretch to give everyone a extra rest, and line up Schmidt to make it happen. Following his start this Sunday, that plan allows Severino to make three of his next five starts on extra rest, even during that long stretch of games. It’s a thing the Yankees will do. I’m sure of it.

Keep Schmidt around as a long man after Monday and he might not pitch much because the Yankees have those scheduled off-days coming, and he won’t be able to make a spot start during that 20 games in 20 days stretch. At least not a full start with any sort of respectable pitch limit. He’d be a 50 pitches and fly guy, if that.

I would understand and be okay with Schmidt sticking around beyond Monday as long as the Yankees use him more often. He’s pitched three times in 19 games. That’s not enough. Give him more work to show what he can do and who knows, maybe they have another Mike King on their hands. You’re not gonna find out with Schmidt sitting in the bullpen.

Injuries and the weather have a way of messing up the best laid pitching plans. We’ll see what happens, but when the Yankees have to send two players down Monday, I think Schmidt should be one, setting him up for regular work in Triple-A and a spot start during that 20 games in 20 days stretch. Either send him down or keep him and actually use him. Keeping him and letting him grow roots in the bullpen is the worst option.

3. The Yankees Letter is unsealed. At long last what has come to be known as the “Yankees Letter,” the letter Rob Manfred sent to Brian Cashman* following the league’s investigation into the Red Sox’s Apple Watch scandal in 2017, has been unsealed. Given the contents, I have no idea why the Yankees fought its release so much. It’s rather benign.

* Just to be clear, the letter is standard procedure. Whenever the league investigates anything, Manfred sends a letter to all parties detailing the findings and any discipline.

Here’s the letter, which has been lightly redacted to protect identities. Everything in the letter was previously reported except the Yankees receiving a $100,000 fine for improperly using a dugout phone. We knew they got fined. We just didn’t know how much. Now we do. Here’s the tl;dr version of the letter:

• From 2015-16, the Yankees used the video replay room to decode the other team’s signs so runners at second base could then relay the signs to the hitter.
• In road ballparks where the video room was located far away, the Yankees used the phone to relay the sign sequences from the replay people to the dugout.
• The Yankees did not use YES Network cameras to scout the other team’s dugout and steal signs (the Red Sox complained to MLB that they did).
• The Yankees did not steal signs and give them to hitters in real time, like the Astros with their trash can banging scheme.

The Yankees went 87-75 in 2015 and were so mediocre in 2016 that they sold at the deadline for the first time in three decades. The Yankees were 11th in runs, 20th in AVG, 14th in OBP, 15th in SLG, and 14th in wRC+ those two years. Either they stunk at stealing signs, or they were so bad that stealing signs merely elevated them to a middle of the pack offense.

Anyway, I have two quick thoughts on this. First, the letter would have been a much bigger deal had it been made public in 2017. It has been brushed aside these last few days because every team was doing something similar, and while that’s (mostly) true, the Yankees still broke the rules. You’re not supposed to use electronic equipment (that includes replay equipment) to decode signs.

The violations in the Yankees Letter are minor compared to what the Astros did in 2017 and I think that desensitized everyone a bit. Yeah, sign-stealing was widespread, and yeah, they weren’t giving signs to the hitter in real time, but the Yankees were acquiring those signs in a way that was against the rules. This would have been a Very Big Deal in 2017.

And second, I think the plaintiffs were kinda right about MLB trying to cover this up? This all came about because a bunch of DraftKings users sued MLB, the Astros, and the Red Sox, claiming they were defrauded by the sign-stealing scandals. They were never going to win (betting on sports doesn’t entitle you to a fair game), but as part of the lawsuit, they argued the Yankees Letter was evidence MLB covered up even more sign-stealing, and therefore it should be unsealed.

Here’s what Manfred said about the Yankees using the dugout phone improperly in his press release in 2017 (emphasis mine):

In the course of our investigation, however, we learned that during an earlier championship season (prior to 2017) the Yankees had violated a rule governing the use of the dugout phone. No Club complained about the conduct in question at the time and, without prompting from another Club or my Office, the Yankees halted the conduct in question. Moreover, the substance of the communications that took place on the dugout phone was not a violation of any Rule or Regulation in and of itself. Rather, the violation occurred because the dugout phone technically cannot be used for such a communication.

Now here’s what Manfred wrote to Cashman in the Yankees Letter, which is dated the day before the press release:

The Yankees' use of the dugout phone to relay information about an opposing Club's signs during the 2015 season, and part of the 2016 season, constitutes a material violation of the Replay Review Regulations.

Manfred’s playing word games here and maybe that stretches the definition of cover up, but is there really a difference between the “substance of the communications” and the “use of the dugout phone to relay information?” I guess legally there’s a difference between what’s said on the phone and the act of using the phone, but come on. Not sure how you separate what is said on the phone from using the phone improperly when what you say on the phone determines whether you used it properly. Whatever, man.

Well, anyway, the Yankees Letter has been unsealed and we can move on with our lives. There were no juicy revelations even though the Yankees fought against its release in a way that made you think they had something to hide. Teams have been stealing signs for decades and I don’t think they all stopped because the Astros got caught. It’s still happening. They’re just better at hiding it.

4. 2022 draft prospect: Coastal Carolina SS Eric Brown. The 2022 MLB Draft will take place during the All-Star break and the Yankees hold the No. 25 pick. Here are the draft prospects we’ve already profiled. Some will be players the Yankees are reported to have interest in, some are players who fit the team’s M.O., and some are players I happen to like.

Undrafted out of his Shreveport high school, Brown owns a .328/.460/.544 line with four homers and more walks (23) than strikeouts (20) in 35 games this spring. He authored a .282/.375/.436 line in 33 games against top competition in the wood bat Cape Cod League last summer, which is strong but not otherworldly.

Watch Brown on the field and the first thing you will notice is his unusual setup at the plate. He holds his hands up high and away from his body, and points his bat at the pitcher. Take a look (GIF via Coastal Baseball):

That’s the kinda setup you often see with hitters in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. It is definitely not something that gets taught here, either at the amateur or pro level. But, Brown has made it work to date. Here are his current draft rankings:

• Baseball America (subs. req’d): No. 45
• FanGraphs: No. 27
• Keith Law (subs. req’d): Not ranked in top 30
• MLB.com: No. 76

College middle infielders are always a hot commodity, and with teams trending away from high school players (especially pitchers), I would bet a pretty penny Brown is drafted closer to where FanGraphs has him ranked than MLB.com. Here’s video and here’s a chunk of MLB.com’s free scouting report:

An offensive catalyst, Brown has tremendous hand-eye coordination that allows him to barrel balls regularly even though there's a lot going on in his right-handed stroke. He has a quick bat and some sneaky pop that should translate into 15-20 homers per season, and he controls the strike zone well. He's an aggressive baserunner with a knack for stealing bases despite his average speed.

Brown's instincts also allow him to cover ground in the field. He's one of the better defensive shortstops in college baseball ... With quick hands and feet, at least solid arm strength and a good internal clock, he can play anywhere in the infield if needed.

Supposedly the Astros, who hold the No. 28 pick, have been hot on Brown in recent weeks. They use the same kinda statistical model driven approach to the draft as the Yankees, so if Brown checks out well with Houston, he probably checks out well with the Yankees. The Twins (No. 8), Guardians (No. 16), Rays (No. 29), and Giants (No. 30) are other known model teams.

I’m not sure whether Brown’s unusual setup at the plate is something that has to be fixed, or is just something he has to prove will work long-term. The Yankees aren’t afraid of unusual setups (they cleaned up Trey Sweeney’s swing real quick), and Brown has the bat-to-ball ability they’ve had success developing. Add in the defensive chops and it’s easy to see his appeal.

5. Rapid fire thoughts. The Yankees quietly signed righty Jose Mujica to a minor league deal last month, according to Conor Foley. The 25-year-old joined Triple-A Scranton earlier this week. Mujica was a $1M international signing by the Rays back in the day, though he’s been hurt and ineffective in recent years (95 runs in 91.1 Triple-A innings last year!). The limited pitch data we have says he’s a mid-90s fastball guy with a changeup. Here’s video. Mujica is perhaps most notable for being the only free agent the Rockies signed to a Major League contract during the 2019-20 offseason. That prompted Nolan Arenado to say he felt “disrespected” because the front office didn’t do anything to improve the team after going to the postseason in 2017 and 2018, and that eventually led to Arenado being traded to the Cardinals. That’s not Mujica’s fault, he was just a bystander, but he is a footnote in history. Anyway, maybe the Yankees can get something out of Mujica. Given their recent track record, we can’t immediately dismiss a signing like this as just a depth move, even if that’s ultimately what it is … The Yankees also signed third baseman Kaleb Cowart to a minor league contract, according to Chris Hilburn-Trenkle. Cowart had some big league time with the Angels back in the day, though he hasn’t played anywhere since 2019. The Yankees signed him to a minor league deal Dec. 2019 and he was in the organization through the pandemic season, and he spent all of last year on the minor league injured list. He still hasn’t played this year either. I wonder if the Yankees have their eye on Cowart as a future coach, and that’s why they’re keeping him around? Wouldn’t be the first time that’s happened. Feels like there’s more to this story than the Yankees just bringing Cowart back as an organizational depth player after two lost seasons.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Paul asks: With the Yankees pitching being so dominant, who has a (way too) early shot at being voted into the all star game? Nestor? King? Loaisiga? Holmes?

It is way too early to talk about these things – at this time last year Yermin Mercedes was the AL Rookie of the Year and Logan Webb was no-name No. 6 starter – but isn’t half the fun talking about things that won’t come to pass? I think the Yankees have five players on the inside track for an All-Star Game selection:

• Nestor Cortes: That’s MLB strikeout rate leader (44.6%) Nestor Cortes to you. Cortes has been incredible. He also feels like exactly the kinda guy who would get snubbed.
• Aaron Judge: It feels like Judge hasn’t really gotten going yet, yet he’s hitting .296/.367/.577 (180 wRC+). We shouldn’t take his greatness for granted.
• Mike King: Making the All-Star Game as a non-closer is tough*, but if there was ever a year for a multi-innings reliever to make it, it’s this bullpen-heavy season.
• DJ LeMahieu: Second base in the American League absolutely stinks. LeMahieu’s top competition is Tony Kemp as the token Athletic, or Brandon Lowe and Marcus Semien if they get it together.
• Anthony Rizzo: Closer race than you might think! Ty France has been incredible and Vlad Guerrero Jr. will probably win the fan vote. They only take so many first basemen.

* Andrew Kittredge was the only non-closer reliever selected to the All-Star Game last year and he made it as one of the last injury replacements.

Managers no longer have a say in the All-Star selection process, so Dusty Baker can’t load up the roster with Astros. There’s the fan vote for the starters and the players’ vote for the reserves, then the commissioner’s office fills in the gaps. Gonna be tough for King or Clay Holmes to make it, even though they’ve been awesome.

Rizzo has been great and Judge has been great even if it hasn’t really felt like it. Right now, three weeks into the season, I think LeMahieu is by far the Yankee with the best chance to be an All-Star. He’s been great and there isn’t much competition at the position. Gerrit Cole and Luis Severino still have plenty of time to pitch their way into All-Star consideration.

I would love love love to see Cortes make the All-Star Game. I would rather Cortes be the only Yankee to make the All-Star Game than nine other Yankees make it. He’s been great, he’s very fun, and he might never again have a chance to make it again. Too bad there’s no fan vote for pitchers. I’d launch a campaign to get Cortes selected.

Steve asks: Can you tell us more about Roki Sasaki? When is he due to be posted? Has to be the biggest pitching prospect in the world, no? Worth squirreling away some of Judge’s money to sign?

Sasaki became a household name earlier this month when he threw a 19-strikeout perfect game, Japan’s first perfect game in 28 years. Here’s video. He threw eight perfect innings in his next start, and retired a professional baseball record 52 consecutive batters. Sasaki has a 1.50 ERA with a 48.4% strikeout rate in 36 innings in 2022 (the league average is 19.9% strikeouts).

All indications are Sasaki is the best pitcher in the world not under contract with an MLB team. He’ll play the entire season at age 20 and is dominating grown men at the highest level in Japan. R.J. Anderson got his hands on some pitch data and found there are no MLB equivalents to Sasaki’s fastball and splitter in terms of velocity, movement, etc. It’s unique, top of the line stuff.

Sasaki is just now becoming a household name, though he’s been on the radar long enough that I wrote a blurb about the Yankees scouting him at RAB. He decided to stay in Japan rather than sign with an MLB team as an international free agent after high school. When will Sasaki’s team, the Chiba Lotte Marines, post him for MLB teams? Beats me. A few things to consider:

• The Marines do not have to post Sasaki. He can request it, but they’re not obligated to do so. They’ve posted only one player in their history (former Twins infielder Tsuyoshi Nishioka in 2010).
• The current international system says Sasaki would be subject to the bonus pools until he turns 25 in Nov. 2026. The bonus pool would really cut into his earning potential.
• MLB and the MLBPA are still discussing an international draft, so the entire system could change. That could make the system even less (or more!) favorable for Sasaki.
• Players need nine years of service time to qualify for international free agency in Japan. Sasaki won’t get there until the 2028-29 offseason should he not be posted.

Let’s say international free agency stays the same and the Marines agree to post Sasaki right after he turns 25, when he’s no longer subject to the bonus pools. He would be available during the 2026-27 offseason. Shohei Ohtani wouldn’t even listen to the Yankees, but he was subject to the bonus pools, so they couldn’t just up their offer. They’d be able to throw money at Sasaki.

Come the 2026-27 offseason, Aaron Hicks and DJ LeMahieu will be off the books and Giancarlo Stanton will have one year remaining on his contract. Gerrit Cole will have two years remaining. You can see how things could line up for the Yankees to spend on Sasaki knowing Stanton’s and Cole’s deals expire soon, and a then-36-year-old Cole will need to be replaced atop the rotation.

What about an Aaron Judge extension? Eh, who knows. You can’t not extend Judge with the idea of instead using that money on Sasaki. We have no idea when (or even if) Sasaki will be posted, what the international talent acquisition system will look like moving forward, and whether Sasaki will even be worth signing. He could blow out his arm tomorrow and never be the same.

Our next best chance to see Sasaki will likely be next spring’s World Baseball Classic. Aroldis Chapman and Yu Darvish wowed as kids in the WBC back in the day, and from that point on the conversation was “when are they coming to MLB???” I can see the same thing happening with Sasaki. He’ll steal the show in the WBC and we won’t stop talking about him until he’s posted.

Howie asks: I'm watching the Bay Bridge Series, and it's like a DoTF reunion with Domingo Acevedo and Thairo Estrada. Thanks again for writing those every night for so long. What other "DoTF All-Stars" are still out there to keep an eye out for?  Who would you pick for your all time DoTF team (based on how much you enjoyed following them)?

Allow me to note Howie’s follow up email simply said “And there's Billy McKinney!”

Anyway, I wrote about Estrada in last week’s mailbag. McKinney and Acevedo are with the skeleton crew the Athletics are running out there this year. Acevedo was in their bullpen for a bit last season and is a high leverage guy now, basically by default. He has allowed four runs in 8.2 innings this year, with 10 strikeouts and three walks.

As always, there are a few names longtime DotF readers will recognize floating around the league. Here are some blasts from the past:

• LHP Phil Diehl, Reds: Went to the Rockies for Mike Tauchman, then to his hometown Reds on waivers. He was called up earlier this week.
• UTIL Gosuke Katoh, Blue Jays: Second round pick in 2013 and the guy who had a projection system named after him. Katoh got his first MLB hit this week (video).
• LHP Anderson Severino, White Sox: The deep sleeper. The hard-thrower caught my eye in Spring Training in 2019. He’s allowed five runs in seven innings this year.
• RHP Erik Swanson, Mariners: The Yankees got him in the Carlos Beltran trade and sent him away in the James Paxton trade. He’s been great: 8.2 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 12 K.
• RHP Miguel Yajure, Pirates: Part of the Jameson Taillon trade. He’s been awful: 10 IP, 15 H, 13 R, 6 BB, 4 K.

Based on who I most enjoyed following and not who my favorite prospect was or who was the best prospect at the time, my all-time DotF team looks like this:

• C Jesus Montero: Easy call. Montero was a beast.
• 1B Greg Bird: I guess. Not many great options at first base.
• 2B Rob Refsnyder: He was so good in the minors!
• SS Jorge Mateo: Few players filled up the box score like him at his prospect peak.
• 3B Mitch Hilligoss: Hit Streak Hilligoss, baby.
• OF Ramon Flores: I always liked him for no discernible reason.
• OF Austin Jackson: Very fun player for a while.
• OF Aaron Judge: Slugged .489 in Triple-A one year and .627 in MLB the next.
• SP Ian Kennedy: It was a DotF event whenever he started in 2007.
• SP Joba Chamberlain: Ditto Kennedy’s comment.
• RP Mark Montgomery: For the five-strikeout inning alone.

My all-time favorite DotF All-Star moment -- and I'm not sure this will ever be topped -- is Daniel Camarena’s grand slam with the Padres (video). I love that Jorge Mateo, Camarena’s former teammate at several stops in the Yankees system, was waiting to give him a big hug when he got back to the dugout:

Camarena was a 20th round pick in 2011 who spent parts of nine seasons in the Yankees system, and got called up for one day as an emergency long man (but didn’t pitch) in 2019. He signed with his hometown Padres as a minor league free agent, then hit a grand slam against Max Scherzer for the team he grew up rooting for with a bunch of family in the stands. Just awesome.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)