April 15th, 2022: Vlad, Cole, Cortes, Catchers, Bullpen, 2022 Draft, Mailbag

Just a heads up: I have a family thing Monday (believe me I wish I could skip it) and I won’t be able to write that day. There will be a post Tuesday, though probably not until later in the day rather than first thing in the morning. I’ll do my best to get it out as quickly as possible. Now let’s get to today’s post.

1. Weekday thoughts. The Yankees have scored 6, 4, 3, 0, 4, 4, and 3 runs in their seven games. They needed the automatic runner in the 10th and 11th innings on Opening Day to get to six runs too, so they’re averaging 3.14 runs in regulation. The pitching has been so good! The Yankees have a 2.49 ERA (3.31 FIP) through seven games, yet they're fortunate to be 4-3 given the bats. The offense has to start giving the guys on the mound breathing room. Anyway, a few thoughts on the last few games.

Vlad the Impaled

I enjoy watching great players do amazing things on the field, just less so when they do it against the Yankees. Vlad Guerrero Jr.’s game Wednesday night was incredible. The first home run was on a cement mixer that might as well have been on a tee. That ball should have been hit a long way. The second homer was on a 98 mph fastball in his kitchen …

… and he still hit it 427 feet. I mean, what are you supposed to do about that? Guerrero then doubled the other way in his third at-bat and took Jonathan Loaisiga deep in his fourth at-bat on a similar pitch to the second homer, though not quite as in and not quite as high velocity (95 mph instead of 98 mph). Loaisiga allowed three home runs all of last season.

“He was just so quick to that pitch. It was kind of an emergency swing. He’s got so much power,” Gerrit Cole told Bryan Hoch about the second homer.

And to cap it off, Guerrero caught the final out of the game, a blistering 108.3 mph line drive. He did all that after Aaron Hicks inadvertently stepped on his hand on a play at first base. Guerrero’s finger was cut pretty good (he received two stitches after the game) and he took his frustration out on the Yankees. Vlad Jr. is the fourth player ever with 14+ total bases against the Yankees:

• Vlad Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays: 1 double and 3 homers on April 13th, 2022
• Mookie Betts, Red Sox: 1 double and 3 homers on July 26th, 2019
• Pat Seerey, Cleveland: 1 triple and 3 homers on July 13th, 1945
• Carl Reynolds, White Sox: 2 singles and 3 homers on July 2nd, 1930

The 14 total bases tie the new Yankee Stadium record (Curtis Granderson had a three-homer, two-single game against the Twins in 2012). Vlad Jr. is a special, special player, and he almost single-handedly beat the Yankees the other night. The Yankees haven’t had a player capable of taking a game over like that since prime Alex Rodriguez. Aaron Judge is great, but Vlad is on another level. So, naturally, Guerrero went 0-for-4 with four strikeouts the next night. This game is so stupid sometimes. The duality of baseball.

“Just otherworldly hitting,” Aaron Boone told Hoch. “Pretty impressive display by him. We got beat by a great hitter tonight.”

The New Cole

Other than against Guerrero, Cole was pretty good Wednesday night. Obviously Vlad’s at-bats count and the Yankees lost the game, but non-Guerrero hitters went 1-for-18 with six strikeouts against Cole. Cole started poorly on Opening Day and was solid after the first four batters. This time out he was good against everyone except the best righty hitter on the planet.

Cole has used a decidedly different approach two starts into the new season and odds are it is in response to the foreign substance crackdown. Previously he was all about throwing elevated fastballs by hitters. After the crackdown, he threw a few two-seamers down. Now he’s throwing four-seam fastballs almost exclusively down. Look at his fastball locations in his two starts:

Cole’s fastball spin is good this year. It’s 2,473 rpm on four-seamers on average. Prior to the crackdown last year, it was 2,531 rpm. Not a huge difference. But it’s not nearly as simple as the more spin, the better. The vertical approach angle, the angle at which the pitch crosses the plate, matters a lot (as does other stuff). Fastball spin plays way better up in the zone than down.

League-wide, batters hit .245 with a .444 SLG against fastballs in the upper-third of the zone last season. They missed with 24.8% of their swings. Against fastballs below that, it was .304 with a .516 SLG and 13.1% whiffs. Cole has a 16.0% fastball whiff rate this year. Four whiffs on 68 total fastballs (25 swings). That feels impossible for Cole, even in a two-start sample against good offenses.

It’s only two starts (while on a pitch limit, no less) and we’ll see how the next few weeks go, but if Cole is going to continue pitching down with his heater, throwing a two-seamer wouldn’t be a bad idea. Add a little wrinkle and try to avoid the barrel. Cole did that briefly after the crackdown last season but hasn’t so far this season. Not sure why. I’m sure there’s a reason.

It’s been a weird start to the season for Cole, who has pitched well other than these very specific instances of a great hitter doing great hitter things. Rafael Devers smashed an elevated fastball into the second deck on Opening Day, then Vlad Jr. somehow short-armed that inside fastball for a two-run homer. The Yankees aren’t paying Cole to tip his cap to great hitters though. He’s gotta start getting those dudes out. I’m curious to see how he uses his fastball moving forward.

Nestor the Ace

At some point the other shoe will drop. Could be next week, could be in two months, could be in five years. Until it does, I’m going to enjoy the heck out of Nestor Cortes, Above Average Starter. Cortes held the Blue Jays to three hits in 4.1 scoreless innings Tuesday before reaching his early season pitch limit. He struck out five and did not walk a batter.

“As any starter, the plan is to go at least five (innings) and keep the team in ballgames,” Cortes told Hoch following the game. “I ran a little short today, but hopefully I can build off that and keep going this season.”

Nestor’s breakout last year – I’m comfortable calling it a breakout – was tied to improved velocity and a sweepier slider, the latter of which is now a Yankees hallmark. Cortes sat around 89 mph earlier in his career. Last year he bumped it up to 91 mph, and it’s up even more this year. The arrow on his fastball velocity keeps pointing up:

On Tuesday, Nestor’s average fastball was 92.1 mph. He was topping out at 92 mph as recently as last May, and Boone attributed the velocity uptick to being a “better-conditioned athlete.” Cortes told Hoch: “I think (my fastball) has a little giddy-up with my short arm action. I’m able to locate it pretty well. The combination of my pitch package really complements my fastball.”

As for the slider, the Yankees are all about these big sweepy sliders now, and, as noted over the winter, Cortes had the fourth largest increase in slider horizontal break last season. It’s still that big ol’ sweeper this year. We can make one of these vertical movement vs. horizontal movement graphs for almost every Yankees pitcher. This is the norm:

“I picked up on it last year in Spring Training, and it was a pitch I struggled with early on,” Cortes told Lindsey Adler (subs. req’d) about his new sweepy slider. “It wasn’t until maybe mid-April, when I was in Triple A, that I actually figured it out and learned how to throw it for strikes and then as a chase pitch when I wanted to. I spent like a month and a half trying to throw it and at first I almost quit on it because I couldn’t get it down, but I’m glad I didn’t.”

This is a long way of saying there are tangible reasons to believe Cortes really is this good. Well, maybe not this good, he has a 2.77 ERA (3.65 FIP) in just under 100 innings since last Opening Day, but legitimately good. Cortes has more velocity, a better slider, he varies his delivery and arm angles, and he pitches with confidence and conviction. It is very fun. May it continue indefinitely.

The Catchers

The Yankees finally got some offense from their catchers Thursday night. They flew a little too close to the sun there with that seventh inning rally and Jose Trevino took care of it with a double play grounder (can’t be blowing a game open), but he had two run-scoring hits earlier in the game, which is two more than Yankees catchers had in the first six games of the season.

The Yankees were willing to trade offense for defense behind the plate this season and, prior to Trevino on Thursday, this wasn’t trading offense for defense. This was sacrificing your first born hitter for defense. Even with Trevino’s big (“big”) game, the catchers are 4-for-24 (.167) with no extra base hits and no walks through seven games.

Kyle Higashioka is 1-for-18 (.056) with a ground ball single (in his first at-bat of the season) and zero walks (only one three-ball count). He’s seen 2.78 pitches per plate appearance. Reader, I am not joking when I say Higashioka would provide more offensive value by standing there and taking pitches until he walks or strikes out. At least then he’d run up the pitcher’s pitch count.

Including the injured Ben Rortvedt, the Yankees have three capable backup catchers, and when you have three capable backup catchers, you don’t get to Voltron them into one starting catcher. It just means you have a backup catcher in the lineup everyday. Right now, the Yankees aren’t even getting backup catcher production at the plate. The catchers have been a collective zero.

The Yankees play favorites (that’s why Greg Bird always had a lineup spot but Clint Frazer didn’t, Phil Hughes kept getting chances to start but Joba Chamberlain didn’t, etc.) and Higashioka is a favorite. At this point though, I think Trevino should start more often, and I thought that before the two-hit game. Neither guy is going to hit, but Trevino is three years younger than Higashioka and he rates as the better framer. From the trade post:

On one hand, Higashioka probably won’t be this bad all season. On the other hand, Higashioka is this bad right now. This isn’t like waiting for Josh Donaldson to get going. Donaldson has a long track record of above-average play. We’re talking about a backup catcher. When he’s going this poorly and you have another backup catcher, try him out. It doesn’t have to be permanent.

Either way, the catching situation has been terrible in the early going. I figured it would be, though I didn’t expect it to be this bad. Even after only five Higashioka starts, the Yankees should give Trevino a little more run and see what happens. There is a minimum acceptable standard on offense and Higashioka isn't meeting it. The Yankees have to try something.

(Tonight’s game will be a good look into the team’s thinking. Does Trevino get a chance to start again, or do the Yankees go right back to Higashioka following his day off?)

Miscellany

Props to Aaron Boone. In the past, I don’t think he has someone ready to replace Aroldis Chapman after the minimum three batters like he did Thursday night. Last season he probably would have given Chapman a fourth batter to see whether it clicked. It’s a long season and you never really know with relievers, but this bullpen is as good and as deep as any bullpen I can remember. They all have different styles and different looks, and everyone’s good. Chapman legit might be their sixth best reliever right now. Here’s a “I haven’t thought too much about it” reliever ranking:

1. Jonathan Loaisiga
2. Clay Holmes
3. Mike King
4. Chad Green
5. Lucas Luetge
6. Aroldis Chapman
7. Miguel Castro
8. Wandy Peralta
9. Ron Marinaccio/Clarke Schmidt/JP Sears

Track record probably puts Chapman over Luetge but Luetge’s really good! The guy couldn’t throw a pitch straight if he tried and he somehow has a 5.1% walk rate as a Yankee. How do you command pitches that move that much? This bullpen is outrageously good. And I feel like, if the Yankees needed to, they could Luis Gil in the bullpen tomorrow and have another dominant reliever. Let’s hope this lasts all year … This is worth a deeper investigation at some point, but I think Luis Severino is a more complete pitcher now than he was from 2017-18. His changeup is better and he's using it more, and he’s got that new cutter too. Either way, Severino has looked really good through two starts. As good as we could have reasonably hoped given the injuries … The Nos. 8-9 hitters went 3-for-42 (.071) in the first six games and 5-for-6 on Thursday. Maybe that’s a sign the tide is about to turn, but the Yankees go to Baltimore this weekend and then have an off-day Monday. I really hope they cut back to 10 relievers after the off-day and call up another bench player so they can pinch-hit for the catcher and Isiah Kiner-Falefa rather than one or the other. Miguel Andujar is on the 40-man roster and would be the obvious call-up candidate. Oswald Cabrera could work too. Either way, get another bench guy in there please. The 11th reliever (JP Sears) has thrown one inning in seven games and the starters are getting stretched out. The Yankees can better use that roster spot … And finally, the Yankees need to chill with the Star Wars two-strike horn (the pregnant whale sound, as David Cone calls it). A few players have said it makes it difficult to hear PitchCom, but I’m just talking in general. Save the horn for high-leverage situations in important games late in the season and postseason. Doing it when the Yankees are down three runs in the sixth inning one week into the season is just weird. Almost kinda sad. Less is more with this. Much less.

2. Previewing the 2022 draft. We are now into April and I’ve yet to do any 2022 draft content. Blame the lockout, I guess. The late start to spring and late end to the offseason put a few things on the back burner, the draft included. Better late than never though.

Similar to previous years, I will profile draft prospects in the coming weeks. Some are players I like, some are players who appear to fit the Yankees’ preferred profile, and some are neither. Usually we cover enough ground to hit on the player the Yankees take in the first round. Here’s my Austin Wells profile in 2020 and my Trey Sweeney profile in 2021.

Before we get to the prospect profiles, let’s cover the basics of the 2022 draft, shall we?

Draft Details

MLB is still trying to make the draft broadcast a thing. I appreciate the effort, but the MLB draft will never be remotely close to as popular as the NBA and NFL (and even NHL) drafts because those players jump right to the show. The top picks don’t disappear into the minors for 3-4 years. Also, college baseball is not as popular as college basketball and football. It is what it is.

The draft will again take place during the All-Star break. MLB moved it back from early June to the All-Star break last year and teams didn’t like it. MLB is doing it again anyway. The All-Star Game is Tuesday, July 19th this year, and the Home Run Derby is one day earlier. Here is the draft schedule:

• Day 1: First round through compensation rounds on Sunday, July 17th.
• Day 2: Rounds 3-10 on Monday, July 18th.
• Day 3: Rounds 11-20 on Tuesday, July 19th.

The draft combine is back (and here to stay). It will be held at Petco Park from June 14th to 20th. Here are the draft combine details from MLB:

The top 300 draft-eligible players, as identified by USA Baseball and MLB Clubs, will be invited to attend the 2022 Draft Combine along with up to 30 supplemental invites.  The Combine will provide an opportunity for players to participate in a series of medical and performance assessments as well as educational programming designed to prepare them for careers in professional baseball. All players will have the opportunity to participate in a pro-style showcase workout, as well as strength and performance assessments.  Additionally, high school players will have the option to participate in games against other high school Combine attendees.

As part of the Combine experience, attendees will benefit from the opportunity to interview and interact directly with Major League Club general managers and scouting directors, as well as an enhanced medical evaluation process.  Participants at the MLB Draft Combine will also have opportunities to be featured on MLB social media channels, in addition to receiving personal branding training and access to real-time content and custom video for their own platforms.

Lefty Brock Selvidge, my No. 23 prospect, went into last spring as a possible first round pick. He struggled at his Arizona high school, however, then went to the draft combine and impressed. The Yankees selected him in the third round and paid him a $1.5M bonus based largely on his showing (i.e. the pitch data) at the combine.

MLB and MLB Network will have a bunch of coverage from the combine. That’s not my cup of tea, but if you’re into it, draft combine content will be available.

Draft Order

The new Collective Bargaining Agreement created a draft lottery, though that doesn’t begin until next year. It’s still reverse order of the standings this year. The Orioles, Diamondbacks, Rangers, Pirates, and Nationals hold the top five picks in that order. This is the third time the O’s have held the No. 1 pick (Ben McDonald in 1989 and Adley Rutschman in 2019).

The Yankees went 92-70 a year ago and hold the No. 25 pick. The Red Sox went 92-70 as well, though they had the worse record in 2020 (24-36 vs. 33-27), so they hold the tiebreaker and get the No. 24 pick. Also, the Mets have an extra pick (No. 11) for failing to sign Kumar Rocker last year. The Red Sox tiebreaker and Rocker pick moved the Yankees from No. 23 to No. 25.

Here’s the current draft order. It is not yet final. Michael Conforto is still unsigned and he rejected the qualifying offer. The Yankees are locked into that No. 25 pick, but depending where Conforto signs and for how much, their picks after the first round could move a bit. Word is Conforto is rehabbing a shoulder injury and won’t sign until healthy. Who knows when that will be.

Here are the Yankees’ current picks by round. The draft is 20 rounds now (I figured that would become permanent, signing undrafted free agents is cheaper than paying bonuses in rounds 21-40) and the top 10 rounds are tied the bonus pool:

1st round: 25th overall
2nd round: 61st overall
3rd round: 100th overall
4th round: 130th overall
5th round: 160th overall
6th round: 190th overall
7th round: 220th overall
8th round: 250th overall
9th round: 280th overall
10th overall: 310th overall
11th to 20th rounds: Every 30 picks thereafter

Competitive Balance Round A (Nos. 33-38) and B (Nos. 67-74) picks are the only tradeable picks. Every year I say I hope the Yankees trade for one and every year they don’t. They did get one in the Sonny Gray trade with the Reds, otherwise that’s it. They’ve made no other trades to add draft picks since they became tradeable a few CBAs ago. (The Yankees used the Gray pick on lefty T.J. Sikkema, who is on the injured list again).

If Conforto doesn’t sign until after the draft a la Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel in 2019, then the draft pick compensation goes away and the current draft order is final. If he signs before the draft, then those picks listed above could move around slightly.

Bonus Pool

Slot values and bonus pools have not been reported yet. The pandemic year March Agreement set the 2020 and 2021 bonus pools at the same values as 2019. They are going up this year. I don’t know how much, but they’re going up. It’s in the new CBA. Conforto’s free agency might be holding these up. We’ll get the bonus pools soon enough.

(When we do get the bonus pools, I’ll come back and update this post because I like having the draft info in one place. I’ll let you know when we have the bonus pools and this post has been updated.)

UPDATE: Jim Callis has the 2022 bonus pools. They went up about 5% from last year. Here are the slot values for the Yankees:

1st round: 25th overall ($2,879,300)
2nd round: 61st overall ($1,187,000)
3rd round: 100th overall ($611,100)
4th round: 130th overall ($456,300)
5th round: 160th overall ($340,500)
6th round: 190th overall ($263,800)
7th round: 220th overall ($207,300)
8th round: 250th overall ($172,200)
9th round: 280th overall ($157,900)
10th overall: 310th overall ($149,700)
11th to 20th rounds: Every 30 picks thereafter (every dollar over $125,000 given to a player drafted after the 10th round counts against the bonus pool)

Second Generation Prospects

This draft class will make you feel old. Several of the top prospects are the sons of prominent big leaguers, some of whom played for the Yankees. Using MLB.com’s top 100 draft prospects as a guide, here are the notable second generation prospects:

• No. 1: Georgia HS OF Druw Jones (Andruw’s son)
• No. 20: Florida JuCo 3B Cam Collier (Lou’s son)
• No. 51: Oklahoma HS SS Jackson Holliday (Matt’s son)
• No. 52: Nevada HS OF Justin Crawford (Carl’s son)

Also, Arkansas 2B Robert Moore (No. 11) is the son of Royals president of baseball operations Dayton Moore. Druw Jones is said to be emerging as a special talent this spring. Kiley McDaniel (subs. req’d) spoke to several scouts who called Jones the best draft prospect since Bryce Harper in 2010.

One other notable draft-eligible: Carsten Sabathia III. CC’s oldest son is viewed as a draftable prospect, though he does not rank among Baseball America’s top 200 prospects. Little C isn’t so little (listed at 6-foot-4 and 240 lbs.), and, unlike his father, he is not a pitcher. He’s a power-hitting first baseman. He’s heading to Georgia Tech in the fall. Here’s some video.

“I knew it was time to retire when I started hanging out with the coaches,” CC jokingly told Lindsey Adler (subs. req’d) in February. “Then Little C would be there, and all of my teammates would go hang out with him on the couch instead. Like Hicks, Judge, and Gleyber. And then I was like, ‘Damn, he’s closer in age to them than I am!’”

Sabathia isn’t expected to sign and thus won’t get drafted. Nepotism picks were common in the old 50-round draft days. Take Little C in the 40-something round as a nod to CC and his family. That kinda thing. With a 20-round draft, that’s not really possible. You have to use those picks on players you plan to sign and develop. Too bad. Good luck with the Yellow Jackets, Carsten.

The Cursed Draft Class

It has been a brutal few weeks for the draft’s top pitching prospects. They’re all getting hurt. The draft class is cursed. Again using MLB.com’s top 100 draft prospects as a guide, here are the injured pitchers:

• No. 9: Georgia HS RHP Dylan Lesko (shut down with arm soreness)
• No. 13: Tennessee RHP Blake Tidwell (missed several weeks with a sore shoulder)
• No. 17: Alabama LHP Connor Prielipp (had Tommy John surgery last May)
• No. 18: Mississippi State RHP Landon Sims (had Tommy John surgery in March)
• No. 31: Arkansas RHP Peyton Pallette (had Tommy John surgery in January)

Furthermore, East Carolina LHP Carson Whisenhunt (No. 26) was suspended for the year after testing positive for a banned substance, and Oregon State RHP Will Frisch and South Dakota HS RHP Austin Henry both had Tommy John surgery last month. Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranks Frisch and Henry the Nos. 110 and 131 prospects in the draft class, respectively.

Those are the latest rankings. Coming into the spring there was a debate whether Tidwell, Sims, or Pallette was the top college pitcher in the draft class. All were seen as a potential top 10 picks. Prielipp was considered an early candidate to go No. 1 overall in this year’s draft when he blew out his elbow last spring. (Tidwell, I should note, returned as a reliever this past weekend.)

Injured pitchers get drafted in the first round every year. The Yankees did it most famously with random Yankee Andrew Brackman in 2007, and most recently with Clarke Schmidt in 2017. Elbows are generally fixable, and for a team picking late in the first round, an injured pitcher might be your best chance to get top of the draft upside. Will the Yankees go for it this year? Eh, it depends how the draft plays out and who’s on the board when they pick. Tough spring for pitchers though.

Mock Drafts

Mock drafts are already rolling in, though this far out from the draft, they’re almost all speculation. We’re not seeing much (or any) reporting on which team had scouts at that player’s game, etc. Over the winter Jim Callis put together a mock draft of the top 10 picks, and that’s already outdated (because Pallette had Tommy John surgery, etc.).

Baseball America (subs. req’d) released their first mock draft in February, and they have the O’s taking Jones with the No. 1 pick. Here is their mock Yankees pick:

25. Yankees — Andrew Dutkanych, RHP, Brebeuf Jesuit Prep, Indianapolis

Scout’s take: On my board, I had Brandon Barriera, Tristan Smith, Andrew Dutkanych and Jordan Sprinkle here. It’s tough not knowing how some of these guys will pan out with signability. They have a ton of shortstops so I am going with Dutkanych here. He has premium stuff overall and high aptitude. He has a great feel to pitch due to being a persistent student of the game.

The Yankees have not taken a high school pitcher with their first pick since Ty Hensley in 2012. Teams are taking fewer high school pitchers in the first round these days because they carry so much risk. The very best still go high in the draft. The second tier guys are now behind college players on draft boards. I’d bet against the Yankees using the No. 25 pick on a prep pitcher.

Earlier this month Baseball America (subs. req’d) released their second mock draft, and they again have the Orioles taking Jones. Here is their second mock Yankees pick:

25. Yankees — Sterlin Thompson, OF, Florida

Scout’s Take: Lefthanded-hitting bats are the Yankees sweet spot and in the last two drafts they have taken Trey Sweeney and Austin Wells in the first round—both impressive lefty hitters. Thompson is swinging it the best of any college lefthanded hitter still on the board.

That’s more like it. A college guy with a great stat line (.339/.404/.575 this spring) who has “long shown a good feel to hit from the left side of the plate with a very good approach,” according to MLB.com. I’m not saying the Yankees should draft Thompson or that I want them to draft Thompson, just that he fits their M.O. more than a high school pitcher. More mock drafts are on the way, as is information about who the Yankees are zeroing in on.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. A few weeks back I noted the new Collective Bargaining Agreement changed how luxury tax hits are calculated when players are traded in the middle of multi-year contracts. Now the luxury tax hit is recalculated to reflect the actual dollars remaining on the deal. Since then, two players signed extensions that are not backloaded:

• J.P. Crawford, Mariners (5 years, $51M): $5M in 2022, $10M each year from 2023-25, and $11M in 2026
• Ke’Bryan Hayes, Pirates (8 years, $70M): $10M in 2022 and 2023, $7M each year from 2024-27, and $8M in 2028 and 2029

Typically extensions for players still years away from free agency are backloaded. The salaries are smaller up front, during what would have been the player’s team control years, then they’re at their highest during what would have been his free agent years. That isn’t the case with these two. In Crawford’s case, the Mariners say this will give them payroll flexibility down the road, when they have to pay some of their other young players. For Hayes, I assume the big 2022-23 salaries are the Pirates trying to keep the MLBPA off their back regarding payroll and revenue sharing appropriation. Either way, these contracts will be easier for a big market team (like the Yankees) to absorb down the line because the recalculated luxury tax hits won’t be based on high-priced years at the end of a backloaded contract. I don’t know if this is the start of a trend or just two uniquely structured contracts. I guess we’ll find out in time … And finally, Miguel Cabrera had a three-hit game Thursday night and is sitting on 2,994 career hits. The Yankees have three games in Detroit next week. Decent chance they’ll be in town when Miggy joins the 3,000-hit club. That would be pretty cool as long as it doesn’t cost the Yankees a game or anything.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Rich asks: With word that extension talks broke down between Aaron Judge and the Yankees, does it make sense to wait until after the All-Star break and if Michael Conforto is still unsigned, sign him and then trade Judge? This way they wouldn't lose draft pick compensation and they'd have a fine player to man right field. I'm not saying Conforto is of Judge's caliber, but if you get Conforto plus the players you'd receive in a trade for Judge (which should be sizable) and don't lose a draft pick, it seems it would bridge the gap a bit.

It’s worth considering, for sure. I don’t think the Yankees would go for it, but it’s not crazy. I think that, as long as the Yankees are within striking distance of an expanded postseason spot, they will add pieces at the deadline. Trading away Judge seems like something the Yankees would only consider if they are far out of it. I don’t expect that to happen.

For Conforto, it would be a pretty good situation, no? Or maybe it’s better to call it the best of a bad situation. I don’t think he wants to be unsigned in July. If he is though, Conforto would join a team with a ballpark that is friendly to lefty hitters and in a familiar city. Seems like a good landing spot. I’m a Conforto fan, and if you have to replace Judge, he’s as good a candidate as anyone.

There are two variables here. One, what are you getting for Judge? He is a star, but he is a rental star, and rental stars don’t get traded for monster packages these days. Some recent examples:

• Kris Bryant: Traded for two team top 15 prospects (Alex Canario and Caleb Kilian).
• Manny Machado: Traded for a team top 5 prospect (Yusniel Diaz), a team top 10 prospect (Dean Kremer), two team top 30 prospects (Rylan Bannon and Zach Pop), and a journeyman utility guy (Breyvic Valera)
• Starling Marte: Traded straight up for a broken Jesus Luzardo.

Judge is better than those three guys and it only takes one team to step up with a huge offer, but recent history suggests you’re not getting a global top 25 prospect or a young big leaguer who can step onto your roster and make an impact. The Orioles went quantity over quality for Machado and it’s been a disaster. That trade is close to a total loss (Kremer might be an okay reliever).

And two, how much will Conforto contribute? He’s rehabbing from a shoulder injury suffered during an offseason workout, and if you sign him after the draft in July, it will be nine months since he's last seen live, game-action pitching. If you sign Conforto for multiple years and trade Judge, then maybe what Conforto does in 2022 doesn’t matter. But if it’s a one-year prove yourself deal with an eye on staying in the race, that’s quite a gamble to take.

It feels like a lot of things would have to fall into place for this to happen. The Yankees would have to be far enough out of it to trade Judge, but not so far out of it that they wouldn’t sign Conforto (and that Conforto wouldn’t look to instead sign with contender), plus another team would have to give you a good package for Judge. Not gonna happen, but it’s not a crazy idea.

Adam asks: Wednesday's game just ended, and maybe I'm being negative, but this is what I witnessed last year. An unwatchable team that hits cool HR's and has enough pitching to make you believe. It's early and I'm optimistic, but what happens if in June it's still the same thing? At what point is there legit accountability?

I think the earliest you will see any kind of “accountability” is after the season, when the Yankees either bring Brian Cashman back or do not. Re-signing Aaron Boone was a clear message ownership is completely fine with the status quo. If it gets to June and the Yankees are still a middling third or fourth place team, they’ll add pieces and go for it. Last year told us that.

This is a problem throughout baseball, I should note. Young executives are blameless and have to meet no expectations for 5-6 years because hey, it’s a rebuild. Ownership can tell fans “well, where are you gonna go?” because they don’t need good attendance to make gobs of money. There is no accountability in this sport above the player class. The Yankees are no different. They are perfectly happy to coast on their history. I don’t think the Yankees are anywhere close to making real, meaningful change. First seven games notwithstanding, this is the plan.

Rob asks: Since Devers is gonna be a free agent after the season, would you rather the Yanks sign him instead of extending Judge? Devers is left-handed and younger, though he's not a good at 3B. Put Devers at DH and Stanton in RF? Or put Devers at DH and slide Donaldson to 1B?

Rafael Devers will be a free agent after next season, not this season. Similar to Aaron Judge, Devers set an Opening Day deadline for contract extension talks, and they didn’t reach a deal. Jon Heyman says what Devers wanted and what the Red Sox offered was “like night and day.” The Yankees and Judge were at least in the same ballpark. The Red Sox and Devers were not.

Devers will turn 27 in Oct. 2023, so he’ll be an in-his-prime free agent like Carlos Correa and Bryce Harper. You know, like the guys the Yankees made little effort to sign the last few years. Devers can really hit and we know how his lefty power plays in Yankee Stadium. He’s a brutal defensive third baseman, but that’s fine. Give him a first baseman’s glove.

The Yankees seem to be on an every three years cycle with the luxury tax. They got under the threshold and reset their tax rate in 2018 and 2021, and are poised to do it in 2024, when Josh Donaldson and Anthony Rizzo come off the books, and guys like Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe should be ready to provide cheap production. In that case, bet against a Devers signing.

It is entirely possible the Yankees will have to go into a rebuild come 2024. I mean a 2015-16 Yankees-style rebuild, not an Orioles rebuild. Gerrit Cole will be 33 in 2024, Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Hicks will be 34, and DJ LeMahieu will be 35. Others like Judge, Joey Gallo, Jordan Montgomery, Luis Severino, and Jameson Taillon will become free agents before then too.

Similar to Correa and Harper, I am of the belief that if a guy like Devers becomes available and you have the ability to sign him, you should. The Yankees also have a track record of passing on these free agents, plus the roster could be old and not particularly impressive come 2024. I’d argue otherwise, but the case could be made signing Devers at that point wouldn’t make sense.

Eric asks: I know Hicks had Tommy John after 2019 but man has his arm strength evaporated, at least to my eye. Shouldn’t he be essentially back to normal by now?

Statcast launched in 2015 and, as of this past Saturday, Aaron Hicks still had the hardest outfield throw on record at 105.5 mph (video). Fielder throw data is kept behind the curtain though. There is no public leaderboard with average outfielder throw velocity or anything like that. Every once in a while MLB will post a highlight with a throw velocity and that’s all we get.

The season is seven games old and Hicks hasn’t had to really cut it loose yet. His most urgent throw was this one, and it was a “pick up the ball and spin and throw it” situation. The ball made it from the warning track to the infield on the fly, and I think that’s good considering he didn’t set his feet? I dunno. Hicks hasn’t had a chance to get under a fly ball, run into it, and really fire a throw to the infield yet.

Hicks had Tommy John surgery in Oct. 2019, so he’s 29 months out now. He should be back to normal. We didn’t see him throw much last year because he only played 32 games, and we only have seven games this year. I honestly don’t know where his arm is at right now. If it looks down to Eric, then it might be down. I wish we had data on it. It exists, it’s just not publicly available.

Steve asks: Can you give a top 5 for fun West Coast teams to watch late night for those of us who have mlb.tv or extra innings? Angels (Ohtani/Trout). Dodgers (loaded lineup). Padres. Mariners. Anyone else I’m sleeping on?

The Padres get bumped down my list until Fernando Tatis Jr. returns. For my money, he is the most fun player in baseball. Even with all their great players, the Dodgers are low-key boring because they’re so good and they win so much. It feels like you go into each game already knowing the outcome. The Angels are great when Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout are on the screen and that’s it. A bore otherwise.

In the old RAB days I would settle on a West Coast team each season and watch them every night after the Yankees played, when I was working on stuff for the site. I didn’t pick a team going into the season. I would flip around the first few days of the season, then settle on the team I found myself enjoying the most. The Athletics were the go-to for a while. The Vin Scully/peak Clayton Kershaw era Dodgers were a staple as well.

They haven’t actually played on the West Coast yet, but I think the Mariners might be my team this year. They have some fun players (Julio Rodriguez, Jesse Winker, Ty France) and a great broadcaster in Dave Sims. I love his enthusiasm and his storytelling. A good booth is a must for late night baseball. Don Orsillo and Mark Grant (Padres) are a god tier booth, and Duane Kuiper and Mike Krukow (Giants) are legends. Old school, but legends

I watch just about every Dodgers-Giants and Dodgers-Padres game because they are a blast, plus the Dodgers are usually the last team left playing each day because their games take so damn long. Otherwise I think the Mariners are my late night team this year, at least until Tatis returns. Fun team, good broadcaster. And if I find I’m not enjoying the Mariners as much as I thought I would, I’ll change it up. Steve hit all the right teams. No need to pay attention to the A’s, Diamondbacks, or Rockies this year.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)