April 7th, 2022: Opening Day Roster, Bird, Montgomery, Mailbag

We had to sit through a 99-day lockout to get baseball back. What’s one more day? It is raining in New York and Opening Day has been pushed back to Friday. At least the Yankees were nice enough to bang the game a day early rather than wait until the day of the opener itself, like they did in 2016 and 2018. Now the Yankees have an extra day to lock up their franchise player.

I was originally planning a “Quick thoughts before Opening Day” post Thursday morning and the regularly scheduled post Friday, but with the rainout, I’m going to flip them. Here is Friday’s post a day early. Tomorrow I’ll have a few Opening Day specific thoughts before the game. Let’s get to it.

1. Opening Day roster. The Yankees finalized their 12-position player, 16-pitcher Opening Day roster before leaving Tampa on Tuesday, and they will make it official probably Friday morning. Here’s the squad that will begin the 2022 season:

As expected, Stephen Ridings was put on the 60-day injured list to clear a 40-man roster spot for David McKay, who was sent to Triple-A. The Yankees say Ridings has a shoulder impingement. I assume the recently claimed Jeisson Rosario will be designated for assignment to clear a 40-man spot for Gonzalez. (Trevino moved into Albert Abreu’s 40-man spot, so that’s easy.)

Marwin went 6-for-11 (.545) with three home runs to start the spring and 3-for-13 (.231) with a double to finish it. Does he make the team if he goes 3-for-13 with a double to start and 6-for-11 with three homers to finish? Eh, probably, but first impressions matter, and it felt like Marwin was going to make the team no matter what once socked those dingers.

“Marwin’s versatility gives up pretty good coverage everywhere,” Aaron Boone told the Associated Press earlier this week. “Just early on, got to make sure we protect and build up the arms properly. We’ll make it work, and if we have to change on the fly a little bit, we’ll do that.”

Miguel Andujar and Tim Locastro were optioned to Triple-A in the last roster moves of the spring. Andujar is making $1.3M this season. He isn’t the highest paid player in Triple-A (I’m not looking through every roster but Scott Kingery is making $6.25M as part of the pre-MLB debut extension he signed a few years ago), but there aren’t many guys with seven figure salaries in the minors. Not sure what the season holds for Miggy.

The five starting pitchers and Schmidt are all built up to 70 pitches or so. King and Sears got up to 50 pitches in Spring Training. The Yankees have plenty of long relievers available to chew up innings while the starters get fully stretched out the next few weeks. The Yankees can always shuttle guys up and down too. Deivi Garcia and Luis Gil are a phone call away.

The 10-day rule means Andujar and Locastro can’t be recalled right away (the Yankees could always make a 40-man move to call up Jose Peraza or Phillip Evans or whoever). The Yankees will play it by ear, but my guess is they’ll go through the rotation twice before cutting down to 15 pitchers, and calling up Locastro to serve as a proper fourth outfielder. Until then, Judge is the backup center fielder. (Gonzalez has three career innings in center.)

Will LeMahieu be in the Opening Day lineup? My guess is no. The Yankees didn’t go through all that to get a new shortstop just to sit Kiner-Falefa and put Torres at short on Opening Day, and I don’t think they’re sitting Torres. Maybe they sit Hicks, put Stanton in the outfield, and one of the infielders at DH to get LeMahieu in the lineup? That might be it. Either way, we’re going to see LeMahieu plenty this season. I’m sure of it.

“There’s always a lot of focus on Opening Day, but it’s definitely a marathon,” LeMahieu told Greg Joyce earlier this week. “... Injuries are going to happen, but when we hit those bumps in the road, hopefully we have guys that are more prepared to step up.”

The roster you start the season with is not the roster you finish the season with (Jay Bruce, Clint Frazier, Nick Nelson, Darren O’Day, and Mike Tauchman were on the Opening Day roster last year), and this is the group the Yankees will start the season with. 11 relievers is overkill, but if the Yankees believe they need 11 relievers, then they’re going to carry 11 relievers.

2. Yankees sign Bird. Two weeks ago it looked like Greg Bird would make the Blue Jays. He didn’t, then he opted out of his minor league contract and signed a minor league deal with the Yankees. Joel Sherman says Bird will make $1M at the MLB level. Bird and Manny Banuelos are back in the farm system? This is me, emotionally:

Hopefully Bird isn’t ready to get hurt again. Anyway, once the Blue Jays told him he didn’t make the Opening Day roster, Bird had two options: go to Triple-A and be stuck behind Vlad Guerrero Jr., or opt out and sign with another team. Anthony Rizzo is not as big an obstacle as Vlad Jr., plus Bird knows the Yankees and the organization, so he’s back.

“He can hit,” Aaron Boone told the Associated Press about the Bird signing. “Health has always been the issue for him, but I don’t think anyone has ever doubted his potential and what he could be as a big league hitter. Get another talented guy that appears to be healthy.”

Now 29, Bird went 6-for-23 (.261) with a double and two homers in Spring Training, including a homer against the Yankees (video). His exit velocities were okay. Last year Bird stayed healthy (461 plate appearances were his most since 2013) and hit .267/.362/.532 (117 wRC+) with 27 homers in Triple-A with the Rockies. By Triple-A standards, Scranton’s lineup will be stacked:

1. SS Oswald Peraza
2. 2B Oswaldo Cabrera
3. DH Greg Bird
4. LF Miguel Andujar
5. 1B Ronald Guzman
6. 3B Jose Peraza
7. CF Estevan Florial
8. C Rob Brantly
9. RF Tim Locastro

A 117 wRC+ in Triple-A for a bat-only first base/DH type isn’t great, especially when the player in question has a good deal of big league experience. Colorado’s Triple-A affiliate plays in Albuquerque too, which is at altitude and a pretty good place to hit. Bird stayed healthy last year and that’s great. He didn’t exactly tear the cover off the ball though.

At best, Bird is third on the first base depth chart behind Rizzo and DJ LeMahieu. He might be behind Marwin Gonzalez and Guzman too. Chances are Bird’s contract includes an opt out(s). He’ll play and perform as much as possible, keep tabs on the Yankees and the rest of the league, and evaluate his options. That’s usually how it goes.

I learned a long time ago not to count on Bird and I don’t think the Yankees expect anything either. This seems like nothing more than “we have an opening at this position at Triple-A, so let’s see what this player we like has left.” Maybe it comes together and Bird helps the Yankees. That would be really cool. If not, then whatever. At least Triple-A box score watching will be fun.

3. More on Montgomery. Jordan Montgomery made two Grapefruit League appearances (he did the rest of his work in simulated games like everyone else) and allowed three runs on eight hits in 3.2 innings. He struck out six. His first outing was very bad. The second was much better. Montgomery will start the third game of the regular season Sunday night.

“I’ve been trying to take every game as serious as I can, especially today facing all of our guys,” Montgomery told Greg Joyce after facing Josh Donaldson, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton (over and over) in a simulated game last weekend. “Especially that early (11am), it’s easy to take the excuse and be like, ‘Oh, well I’m facing my guys and it’s early.’ I tried to lock it in and treat today like it was a game. I’m happy with how it went.”

Following his first spring start, I noted Montgomery’s release point had dropped and his velocity was down a tad. His control was all over the place too. I called his outing a yellow flag more than a red flag, and since then, people much smarter than me have chimed in to say the lower release point (we’re talking a good 2-3 inches) could be a plus for Montgomery overall.

First, former Rays intern Cameron Levy noted the lower release point allowed Montgomery to get more vertical break on his sinker without sacrificing too much velocity. Last year the Giants had success with pitchers who had similar angles on their sinkers. Those traits were common enough with San Francisco’s pitchers that they likely sought them out. It wasn’t a coincidence.

A few days later, Eno Sarris (subs. req’d) wrote about pitchers with standout Stuff+ in Spring Training. Long story short, Stuff+ is a measure of, well, a pitcher’s stuff. It is based on pitch characteristics like velocity, spin, extension, movement, etc. Similar to wRC+ and ERA+, 100 is average and the higher the number, the better. The Spring Training Stuff+ leaders:

1. Gerrit Cole: 128.6
2. Mitch Keller: 114.9
3. Jordan Montgomery: 113.0
4. Aaron Nola: 107.7
5. Sean Reid-Foley: 103.7

Keep in mind Statcast is not available in every Spring Training park, and ideally you’d have a sample of several hundred pitches. We only have what we have for Spring Training though. Anyway, last year Montgomery had a 101.8 Stuff+ plus. He made the jump from more or less league average last season to a good deal above average this spring. From Eno:

For a command-and-control guy to pop with a 113 Stuff+ is very notable. He had league average Stuff+ last year when he put up an ERA in the high threes and was a surprisingly useful pitcher given how tough his home park and home division are. Now that his stuff is popping a little more, could we ask for even more? Double-digit wins, a double-digit strikeout per nine rate? One thing that provides some caution is that Montgomery is doing this without any velocity boost. He’s averaging 91.9 on his fastballs this spring, which is actually a little drop from where he sat last year.

Montgomery did not talk about any adjustments in Spring Training and, to be frank, he’s not the most interesting talker. If you get Cole or Jameson Taillon or Mike King to talk pitching, they’ll chew your ear off in the nerdiest ways possible. Montgomery is more of a cliche guy, so even if he were working on his sinker angles, he probably wouldn’t discuss it. That’s fine. It’s who he is.

Sinkers are back in style and it’s not just the Yankees. The Giants are all-in on sinkers. The Blue Jays, Cardinals, and Cubs have moved in that direction too. I don’t know if it’s in response to the foreign substance crackdown or is just the natural evolution of the game, but sinkers are cool again. The Yankees are all about sinkers, so Montgomery making adjustments to improve his sinker traits would track.

Once the regular season begins and Montgomery gets a few starts under his belt, we’ll have a much better idea about the quality of his stuff, and whether these adjustments are actually adjustments, and not just a thing that happened. For now, I’m glad smart people took notice and like what Montgomery showed in camp. He’s solid more than great, and I’d love to see him get to another level this year. It would be a game-changer for the Yankees.

4. Rapid fire thoughts. So long, Austin Meadows. Earlier this week the Rays did a Rays and traded one of their most productive players for stuff to help them down the road (a prospect and a draft pick, in this case). Why not keep Meadows, field the best possible team, and try to win the World Series? Because that’s not what the Rays do. Meadows hit .267/.348/.588 (154 wRC+) with one homer every 13.3 plate appearances against the Yankees during his time with Tampa. He hit .254/.331/.476 (118 wRC+) with one homer every 23.0 plate appearances against everyone else. Getting Meadows and Randal Grichuk out of the AL East is the best move the Yankees made all offseason. Enjoy Detroit, Austin … The Yankees brought back Manny Banuelos and Greg Bird, but couldn’t bring back Dellin Betances? smh. Dellin hooked on with the Dodgers. It’s a minor league deal worth $2.75M in the big leagues with a bunch of incentives, according to Ken Rosenthal. Betances turned 34 last month and he’s thrown only 13.1 innings the last three years because of shoulder problems that required surgery last summer. He might be done. Like done done. Dellin is one of my all-time favorites. What a blast he was at his peak. I hope he gets healthy and makes it back to the show one more time. In other former Yankees news, here’s Dodger Tommy Kahnle striking out Angel Tyler Wade. I miss Tommy Tightpants and his changeup … PitchCom is here! It has been approved for regular season use, MLB announced earlier this week. It’s not mandatory – Aaron Boone said “most of our pitchers will be using it” during Tuesday’s broadcast – though so many players said they like it this spring and teams are so paranoid about sign-stealing (understandably) that I bet all 30 clubs will use it before long. There is something to be said for stealing signs the old fashioned way (when your opponent isn’t careful enough), but teams did this to themselves. I mostly care about the pace of play. Less downtime between pitches gets a big thumbs up from me. Bring on the PitchCom era … And finally, MLB announced an exclusive Sunday morning streaming deal with Peacock earlier this week. Here’s the schedule. The Yankees have just one game on Peacock, thankfully. To watch the Yankees this season you will need to subscribe to YES, ESPN, FOX and FS1, Amazon Prime, Peacock, and Apple+. If they make the postseason, TBS as well. The most fan unfriendly sport strikes again. I wonder what Rob Manfred has in store next.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Paul asks: Let's pretend that both Gleyber Torres and DJLM bounce all the way back to their peak forms. Do you think that would force the Yankees to give more playing time at SS for Gleyber to keep both in the lineup? Or would they get creative w/ Josh Donaldson at DH and Stanton in RF? Would Gleyber/DJ doing great somehow cost Hicks/Gallo playing time?

Torres at short would be the way to go, right? Yeah, the defense takes a hit, but a big enough hit to negate the offensive upgrade? Almost certainly not, especially not if LeMahieu is mashing too. Assuming everyone is healthy, the Yankees would have to put Torres at short and LeMahieu at second full-time if those two turn the clock back to 2019. I don’t see how you couldn’t.

My guess is the Yankees are not displacing Isiah Kiner-Falefa at short for anyone other than Oswald Peraza or Anthony Volpe, so the likely outcome would be less playing time for Aaron Hicks (with Aaron Judge in center and Giancarlo Stanton in right) and Anthony Rizzo to get Torres and LeMahieu into the lineup everyday. Even then, there are still enough ways to get Hicks and Rizzo four or so starts per week.

I know this is the boring answer but it is the correct answer: it will work itself out. If Torres and LeMahieu both bounce back, the first thing the Yankees will do is celebrate. The second thing is figure out how to make the lineup work. Someone’s going to get hurt, someone’s going to underperform, and things will fall into place. They always do.

Adam asks: With Sal Perez locked up until 2025, is MJ Melendez attainable?

My guess is no but I like the idea. Perez turns 32 next month and, even after missing 2019 with Tommy John surgery, he ranks second in innings caught since 2013:

1. Yadier Molina: 8,836.1
2. Salvador Perez: 7,711.1
3. Buster Posey: 7,255.2
4. Jonathan Lucroy: 6,799.2
5. Yan Gomes: 6,789.1

Perez is signed through 2025 at big money, he’s endured a huge workload, and he rates as the worst defensive catcher in baseball. At some point the Royals will have to back off a bit and start giving him more DH time. Melendez is the obvious candidate to take over behind the plate in a catcher/DH timeshare with Perez.

Prior to the pandemic season, Melendez was trending toward being a bust. He struck out nearly 40% of the time in the low minors and wasn’t much of a defender either. Melendez then broke out with a .288/.386/.625 (162 wRC+) line and a minor league leading 41 homers at Double-A and Triple-A last year. Good strikeout (21.7%) and walk (14.1%) rates too.

Melendez, 23, is now a middle of the top 100 prospect, and he’s pretty close to MLB ready. Here is what Baseball America (subs. req’d) wrote about him coming into the season:

Melendez went to work on his swing and approach right after the 2019 season, resulting in a shorter swing, a toned-down leg kick, a better stance and a more relaxed approach. As a result, he is now able to pick up spin earlier, which leads to fewer chase swings out of the strike zone. Moving away from being a dead- pull hitter allowed Melendez to open up the opposite side of the field … Melendez still has work to do with his receiving and blocking behind the plate, but he’s athletic and flexible enough to keep improving. Blessed with a plus-plus arm, he continues to throw out runners at a high rate.

The Yankees have made catcher defense a top priority in the post-Gary Sanchez era, but surely not so much that they’d pass on Melendez’s bat, right? I hope not. I think the Royals will keep him and gradually break him in as their starting catcher. Kinda like what the Yankees did with Jorge Posada and Joe Girardi. They shared the job and Posada didn’t fully take the reins until his fourth MLB season.

A middle of the top 100 prospect for a middle of the top 100 prospect is an easy enough trade package. Oswald Peraza for Melendez? I’d do it. The Yankees are deep in shortstops and thin behind the plate. The Royals are deep in shortstops too (Nicky Lopez, Bobby Witt Jr., and those two are in the big leagues), so that might not work. Jasson Dominguez for Melendez? It’s not unreasonable, I don’t think.

I’m certain the Royals have received trade calls about Melendez, and it never hurts to listen. Given the need to begin phasing out Perez behind the plate, I think they’ll keep Melendez and build around him (along with Witt, Lopez, first base prospect Nick Pratto, and some young arms). If Kansas City does make Melendez available, the Yankees have to pursue him. Good young catchers are hard to find and not everyone needs to be a defensive wiz.

Jonathan asks: So, Rizzo won't be in New York all that long. They didn't go with a Matt Olson, who's younger. Any chance Ron Guzman fills the first baseman of the future role? If he's just a Chris Gittens replacement, OK, but then who is the first baseman after Rizzo?

Greg Bird! That would be cool, but nah. I would bet against Guzman too. He is young (27) and his power is real, though his plate discipline is poor and he doesn’t get to that power consistently.  Guzman will have to really sharpen up his swing decisions to avoid Quad-A status. And if there is an opt out(s) in his minor league deal, he might not last the season with the Yankees.

Rizzo has a two-year contract and the best free agent first basemen in two years will be Max Muncy (assuming his 2023 club option is picked up), 40-year-old Joey Votto, and Rhys Hoskins, who’s a DH more than a first baseman. Re-signing Rizzo will be an option. How he performs the next two seasons will decide his future, but bringing him back is a possibility.

I see two internal first base candidates. First, Austin Wells. Basically no one outside the organization believes he can catch long-term, and while he’s said to be athletic enough to play the outfield, first base is the safer bet. Anthony Garcia could be a first base option down the road as well, but Wells will beat him to the big leagues, so he’s first in line.

And second, DJ LeMahieu. Or Giancarlo Stanton. Or Aaron Judge if he signs long-term. Can we really expect LeMahieu to continue playing the middle infield into his mid-30s? How long until the Yankees have to think about moving Judge out of the outfield in order to keep him healthy (or his defense declines)? The same goes for Stanton, who’s older than Judge and is already a most of the time DH.

Judge turns 30 later this month and, if he signs long-term, the Yankees will have three position players in their 30s signed for at least another five years. You kinda have to assume at least one of them will wind up at first base in a few years, right? It’s entirely possible the post-Rizzo first baseman is already on the roster, just at a different position.

“First baseman of the future” is not a thing teams usually prioritize. If you manage to develop a Freddie Freeman or a Vlad Guerrero Jr., great. If you can sign a top free agent like Mark Teixeira or Freeman, that’s great too. But the long-term first baseman is not something we sweat the same way we do the long-term shortstop or long-term catcher.

The best answer I can give is the Yankees will figure out what to do at first base after Rizzo once Rizzo is gone. Ideally it would be Wells. That would be great. If it has to be LeMahieu or Judge, then so be it. I don’t think the Yankees are worried about this as much as they’re worried about Anthony Volpe one day being their shortstop, or Jasson Dominguez one day being their center fielder.

Brian asks: Now that baseball is back, what major milestones should I be on lookout for this year (not just for the Yankees)?

The Yankees don’t have any significant milestones coming up. DJ LeMahieu (46 away) and Anthony Rizzo (128 away) could get to 1,500 hits this season. Joey Gallo and Aaron Judge are both 42 homers away from 200 and Giancarlo Stanton is 53 away from 400. Those homer milestones are within reach, but would take really great seasons.

Rizzo has averaged 21 hit by pitches per 162 games and has been hit as many as 30 times in a season. He is 22 away from becoming the ninth player in history with 200 career hit-by-pitches. The franchise record is 24 by Don Baylor in 1985. Rizzo has a chance to top that mark. That’s really about it as far as possible round number milestones for the Yankees in 2022.

Around MLB, the two big upcoming milestones are Miguel Cabrera chasing 3,000 hits (13 away) and Albert Pujols chasing 700 homers (21 away). Pujols hit 17 homers in 296 plate appearances last year. He has a chance to get 700, especially with the way the ball flew this spring. I know the Cardinals say Pujols will be a platoon DH, but if he’s closing in on 700 homers late in the season, are they really going to platoon him? The chase will make them a fortune in September.

Yadier Molina is 97 games away from moving into sole possession of second place on the all-time games caught list. He caught 118 games last year, so it’s within reach. Here’s a fun one: Molina and Adam Wainwright could take over as the most common battery (starting pitchers only) in baseball history this season. Here’s the leaderboard:

1. Mickey Lolich and Bill Freehan: 324 games as a battery
2. Warren Spahn and Del Crandall: 316
3. Red Faber and Ray Schalk: 306
4. Wainwright and Molina: 304

Unless Molina and/or Wainwright get hurt, that one is doable. The trade to the Dodgers paves the way for Craig Kimbrel to become the seventh member of the 400 saves club (28 away). Kenley Jansen has a chance to get there too (50 away). Robinson Cano (16 away) and Joey Votto (19 away) are closing in on 350 homers. Nelson Cruz is 51 away from 500. That’ll be tough.

And finally, Pujols needs 0.4 WAR to get back to 100 WAR for his career. He was over 100 WAR once upon a time, though -1.9 WAR (eek) from 2017-21 brought him back under. Only 31 players have retired with 100 WAR. Mike Trout has a chance to get there (currently 76.1 WAR), but after him and Pujols, it will be a long time until we see another player approach 100 WAR. Ronald Acuna, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Juan Soto are the best hopes and they’re basically an entire career away.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)