April 1st, 2022: Severino, Garcia, Gil, Schmidt, Banuelos, Bold Predictions, Mailbag

Some news: 21 Yankees games will be available on Amazon Prime and Amazon Prime only this season, according to Andrew Marchand. The Amazon Prime broadcasts are replacing the free over-the-air WPIX broadcasts, so you need another subscription to watch these 21 games (13% of the season!). If only the Yankees chased the next win as much as they chase the next dollar. Let’s get to today’s post before MLB does whatever fan unfriendly thing it has planned next.

1. Grapefruit League observations. Kinda weird Opening Day is next week, no? It feels like Spring Training just started because it did just start. In a normal spring we’d still have three more weeks of Grapefruit League games to play. Anyway, here are some thoughts on the last exhibition games.

Sevy’s soreness

In what is likely the first of several times this year the Yankees will have to back off Luis Severino because he’s sore, the Yankees had to back off Luis Severino because he was sore earlier this week. I don’t say that because I don’t like Severino. Quite the contrary. I love the guy. But the injury history suggests stuff like this is going to pop up now and then (and maybe more often than that).

Severino was scratched from his scheduled start Wednesday with “general soreness” and he instead threw a bullpen session. Conspiracy theorists may think the Yankees were just keeping Severino away from the Blue Jays, but nah. The Yankees say when they’re doing that. They don’t make up injuries (even minor ones) with pitchers who’ve battled injuries for years.

“He was a little sore coming out of his last (start),” Aaron Boone told the Associated Press. “So we just want to push it back a little bit. I feel like it is general and us being cautious. But anytime I say that about a pitcher, especially his stature and what he’s been through, yeah, it gives you a little bit (of a pause). I feel like it’s something that resolves itself.”

All indications are Severino’s bullpen session went well (he also played catch yesterday). He threw 31 pitches and will make his final Grapefruit League start Saturday. He’s lined up to start the second game of the season. (Boone confirmed the rotation to begin the regular season will be Gerrit Cole, Severino, Jordan Montgomery, Jameson Taillon, and Nestor Cortes in that order.)

“Everything was okay, It was good to keep moving forward,” Severino told Bryan Hoch about his bullpen session. “(My arm) was real tight. You think of everything that has happened -- Tommy John, groin, all that stuff – the next day I was worried, but it got better the next day and the day after that. I was feeling good about my arm the next couple of days.”

Severino posited his body isn’t used to a starter’s workload following the long layoffs – “I haven’t done this in a while. I haven’t built to be a starter. I think my arm is getting used to more work,” he told Hoch – and he tried to do too much, too soon. Sounds plausible. Either way, this episode only reinforces that Severino will have to be handled carefully this year, especially early on.

It’s been an awful spring for Severino (3.2 IP, 8 H, 7 R, 5 BB, 1 K) and he’s been both hit hard (nine of 18 batted balls over 98 mph) and wild (see the walks), and those things can be related. Keep falling behind in the count and you’re forcing yourself to come into the zone, which can lead to harder contact. Spring Training stats aren’t everything, but I was still hoping to see better.

“Any time a guy comes out in Spring Training and doesn’t necessarily have the success that we want, it gives you pause,” pitching coach Matt Blake told Dan Martin. “I think the fact that the velo’s been there and the quality of the pitches have been there (is good), but the execution hasn’t.”

Severino isn’t out of the woods yet (let’s see how he looks Saturday and how he feels coming out of that start) and I am worried. Not panicked, but worried. His injury history is ugly and his body has already told him to slow down once this year, and it’s not even Opening Day. What happens when the adrenaline ramps up against the Red Sox at Yankee Stadium next week? Severino is an excitable, energetic dude. What if he pushes too hard and overdoes it?

The Yankees obsessively give their starters extra rest whenever possible and they may need to go above and beyond to get what, 20-25 starts out of Severino? We’re all hoping for 32, plus 4-6 more in October, but let’s get those first 20 starts in, then take it from there. Keeping Severino on a pitch limit and giving him extra rest, including the occasional injured list stint, feels inevitable.

Hopefully this “general soreness” is truly nothing and Severino stays healthy, and is a quality starter in 2021. I wish the Yankees would’ve brought in another pitcher over the winter so they don't have to rely on “hopefully,” but half-measures are their thing. We kinda have to expect this to be a regular occurrence with Severino. He’s gonna need a break every so often, otherwise he’ll break.

Garcia, Gil, and Schmidt

It’s only 5-6 innings each but man Deivi Garcia, Luis Gil, and Clarke Schmidt have looked great this spring. All three came to Spring Training with something to prove and the stats are nice (15 IP, 9 H, 3 R, 3 BB, 14 K, 1 HR*), though I care more about how they’re throwing the ball, and all three are throwing very well. Deivi in particular has an extra two gears on his fastball.

“I do remember a couple of outings where I touched 96 last year, but I’m definitely more consistent right now,” Garcia told Hoch the other day. “I’ve been trying to feel more within myself on the mound. Just concentrating on execution and using my fastball as a weapon, establishing it. It’s been pretty good.”

* For what it’s worth, Baseball Reference’s opponent quality metric says Garcia, Gil, and Schmidt have faced the toughest competition among Yankees pitchers this spring. They haven’t been overwhelming A-ball kids.

Garcia has lived in the 95-96 mph range this spring after reportedly sitting only 91-92 (and getting blasted) in Triple-A last season. Most Spring Training stats don’t mean anything and most Spring Training velocity takes are a waste of time, but when a guy shows up to camp with an extra 3-4 mph, yeah, that’s notable. It’s early, but Deivi’s answering some questions this spring.

Schmidt’s velocity isn’t up as much as Garcia’s, but it is up about 2-3 mph from last year and 1-2 mph from 2020. His breaking stuff has been sharp too. Schmidt’s stuff was down after the elbow injury last year and now it’s even livelier than it was when he was healthy in 2020. He faced Kyle Schwarber, Jean Segura, and Didi Gregorius the other day and carved them right up.

“That was one of the better times I’ve seen him,” Boone told Martin after that game. “That first inning was as good as you can be. Those were good hitters and they were clearly uncomfortable. With his repertoire, he can even overmatch them a little bit.”

Schmidt told Paul Casella: “Just mechanically, I feel really, really good right now. Everything is in sync and I'm around the zone, and my stuff just feels very sharp."

Gil didn’t come to camp with as much to prove as Garcia and Schmidt, but he’s a 23-year-old trying to make a name for himself, so yeah, it’s fair to say he has something to prove. Either way, Gil’s looked great. He’s slinging his 98 mph heater like it’s a walk in the park, and hitters have missed with 10 of their 27 swings against the fastball. Lordy.

Does it mean anything that Garcia and Schmidt have each started their two games while Gil has come out of the bullpen in his two games? It might. Gil’s never really worked in relief and the Yankees will have those two extra roster spots to start the season. Could they be preparing him for a long relief job as their 27th or 28th man in April? They might be, yeah*.

* I kinda love the idea of letting Nestor funkball his way through the lineup two times, then turning it over to the flame-throwing Gil. The different styles could create something similar to an in-game knuckleball hangover effect.

Regardless, the organization’s three best MLB ready pitching prospects have looked great this spring. The results have been really good. More importantly, they’re healthy and throwing the ball as well as they ever have. They all carry risk (Garcia was brutal last year, Schmidt’s been hurt, Gil’s control isn’t great) but watching them this spring, you can see the upside.

And that’s the story of the rotation depth, right? The Yankees don’t have any sure things behind Cole and Montgomery, but they have guys with a chance to make a real impact. We’re going to see Garcia, Gil, and Schmidt this season. It’s inevitable. If they look anything like they have this spring, the Yankees will be in good shape. And if one guy stumbles, another is right behind him.

“I had high expectations (going into 2021) and then I got hurt,” Schmidt told Martin. “I stepped back and reevaluated how I approached the offseason and made a lot of changes. I feel a lot better and feel healthy. My goal is to try to make the Opening Day roster. I want to fight for one of the spots to help us early on and help us down the stretch, as well.”

ManBan’s case

I am all for Manny Banuelos making the Opening Day roster. It would be very fun. He’s been very good overall this spring (6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 7 K) and the other night he cruised right through what was most of Toronto’s regular lineup. Three innings, three strikeouts, two balls hit out of the infield. It came on the 14th anniversary of the day he originally signed with the Yankees too.

“Manny looked really good. More of what we’ve seen,” Boone told Brendan Kuty. “Obviously, getting the chance to start and go a few innings for us against a really good right-handed lineup. Thought he was in command. More of what we’ve been seeing. A guy with good presence out there. I thought the stuff has been good all spring, but tonight was probably as good as it’s been. The fastball was 93-94. Looked like it was really playing. Another encouraging outing for him.”

Banuelos is sitting in that 93-94 mph range this spring, up about 2 mph from his last big league stint in 2019, and he’s gotten swings and misses with two secondary pitches (changeups and slider). He also looks calm and confident on the mound. Manny’s been through some stuff. Injuries, had to go overseas to stay in the game, etc. A little in-game adversity isn’t gonna bother him.

I’m not sold on Banuelos being the next Cortes – Nestor made real improvements with his pitch shapes last year and we haven’t seen that from Manny (yet) – but teams will get two extra roster spots in April, and do I think he can eat up long relief innings as the 27th or 28th man on the roster? Yes. Yes I do. Maybe Banuelos can be more than that, but let’s start there.

There’s 40-man roster and longer term roster stuff to consider. The Yankees would have to clear a 40-man spot for Banuelos and they already need to open two for Rob Brantly and presumably Marwin Gonzalez. And what happens when rosters shrink back to 26 players? The Yankees already have eight relievers for eight spots (nine if you count Albert Abreu).

I say worry about what happens when the roster shrinks to 26 players when it actually shrinks to 26 players, and not a second sooner. Y’all know the drill. This stuff will work itself out. As for the 40-man roster, there’s always a way. I wouldn’t sweat the last few spots. If the Yankees believe Banuelos is one of their 15 best pitchers, then he should be on the Opening Day roster, period.

There’s a developmental component too. Garcia, Gil, and Schmidt have been great this spring, but there are valid reasons to send each of them to Triple-A. Deivi had a disaster 2021, Gil needs to work on his control, and Schmidt has to show he can stay healthy. Carrying Banuelos as an extra arm in April allows the kids to go to the minors and develop at their own pace.

Six innings is only six innings, and not everyone who has a few great innings in Spring Training is the next Lucas Luetge. With Banuelos, there’s also nostalgia in play, because he’s a former top prospect we all want to see succeed with the Yankees. Who doesn’t love a good comeback story? Whatever the Yankees do with their Opening Day roster, I’ll be rooting for Manny this year.

“It’s very special to be back. I’m enjoying every day I come here to the ballpark. I have a lot of memories. It’s been 11 years since my first Spring Training and I’m enjoying everything I do here,” Banuelos told Martin. “I’m very grateful to the Yankees for giving me the opportunity to come back. I want to take advantage. I want to show I still have something.”

The offense

Haven’t talked much about the bats this spring and I guess I should do that. Last spring the offense looked lethargic, but it was Spring Training, so I didn’t read much into it. Then the offense was lethargic the entire regular season. Sometimes Spring Training really will tell you what you’re going to see during the summer. It did last year with the offense.

The offense is clicking this spring and almost all the regulars are mashing. Aaron Hicks (5-for-21 with a double) and Anthony Rizzo (4-for-18 with a double) are still searching for it, otherwise everyone you want to see put up numbers is putting up numbers. A select few:

• Josh Donaldson: 6-for-18 (.333) with a double and two homers
• Aaron Judge: 7-for-21 (.333) with two doubles and two homers
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa: 8-for-23 (.348) with a double
• Giancarlo Stanton: 6-for-17 (.353) with a double and two homers
• Gleyber Torres: 8-for-22 (.364) with two homers

Kyle Higashioka’s socked four homers too. Good to see Torres have a nice spring and put some balls over the fence. Kiner-Falefa has struck out only twice and swung and missed only five times at 91 total pitches (44 swings). Will he hit? Unclear. He’s making adjustments. If nothing else, the skill set and track record tell us Kiner-Falefa will make a lot of contact.

The short spring was never going to tell us much about an offense that underwhelmed last year and is relying a little heavily on players who need to bounce back. The middle of the order guys are mashing, a few others are not, and in a week or two that will probably be reversed. It is the way of the world.

Miscellany

Tuesday afternoon the outfield alignment was Hicks in left, Judge in center, and Stanton in right. I think we’re going to see that in the regular season when Joey Gallo is at DH or on the bench. The Yankees prioritize left field defense in Yankee Stadium, so they don’t want to put Stanton there, and Judge has never played left in the big leagues. That means Hicks in left with Judge in center and Stanton in right when Gallo sits. I can definitely see this happening during the regular season “That’s an alignment you can see. I wanted to make sure I did that at least once down here,” Boone told Martin … Joely Rodriguez returned to the mound Thursday for the first time since he was missing 3-4 mph during his Grapefruit League debut last week. His velocity wasn’t all the way back, but it was only (“only”) down 1-2 mph from last season, so he’s trending in the right direction. Maybe he’s still building arm strength? Rodriguez at 97-98 is really tough on lefties. At 93-94? Eh, maybe not. Given the small commitment (one year, $2M) and the organization’s upper level bullpen depth, I hope the Yankees don’t give Rodriguez too long a leash. He’s not a guy I would worry about cutting too early. If he goes somewhere else and has success, who cares? … And finally, I was hoping to see a little more of Austin Wells in camp. He went 1-for-4 and didn’t catch at all during Grapefruit League play. I understand it was a short spring and the big leaguers are the priority, but still, I wanted to see Wells at the plate and especially behind it. Also, it was not a good Spring Training for the prospect bats overall. Wells, Elijah Dunham, Estevan Florial, Oswald Peraza, Everson Pereira, Trey Sweeney, and Anthony Volpe have gone a combined 2-for-38 (.053). Peraza and Wells have the two singles. Womp womp.

2. Roster check-in. So here’s a weird thing: Triple-A Scranton’s season begins Tuesday. The Yankees will play their final Grapefruit League game that day. The MLB Opening Day roster does not need to be filed with the league until the morning of Opening Day, but the Triple-A guys have to be sent out this weekend*. We should know what the Yankees’ Opening Day roster will look like real soon.

* The RailRiders open the season in Syracuse. This isn’t a “play a Grapefruit League game on Monday and Triple-A Opening Day on Tuesday” situation. Those players all have to get to Scranton to get set up and settled in, and they’ll get a day off at some point too. They have to do all that and then bus up to Syracuse. Derrick Goold says Cardinals’ Triple-A players are leaving camp Saturday. I imagine every team is on the same timetable.

Double-A Somerset, High-A Hudson Valley, and Low-A Tampa begin their regular seasons next Friday. Looks like the Triple-A guys will be sent out this weekend, and everyone else will stay in Tampa through Tuesday, then disperse following the final Grapefruit League game. That would leave the Yankees with enough extra players for those last few exhibition games.

If the Yankees are down to, say, four pitchers for the 27th and 28th roster spots, I would expect them to hold all four back in Tampa and continue to evaluate rather than make the decision a few days early just to send someone to Triple-A. That doesn’t mean the RailRiders will begin the season shorthanded. Just that the Triple-A roster could change after a few days.

Anyway, the Triple-A season starting before the MLB season is a weird little post-lockout dynamic the Yankees (and every other team) has to deal with in the coming days. As things stand, this is how I see the Opening Day roster shaking out (asterisk indicates the player is out of minor league options and has to pass through waivers to go to Triple-A):

Hard to see Gonzalez not making the team at this point. He is 7-for-15 with three homers and the Yankees keep talking up his versatility. Andujar’s had a good spring himself (6-for-19 with two doubles and a home run) and hasn’t really done anything to play his way off the roster, but the Yankees are prioritizing defense, plus Gonzalez is a Proven Veteran™. Signs point to Marwin right now.

“Seeing him right now, and seeing what we're seeing physically from him, it makes you think that last year was just a blip. That last year was a bad year,” Aaron Boone told Paul Casella about Gonzalez earlier this week. “He's certainly injected himself right into the conversation.”

The Yankees will have to clear 40-man roster spots for Brantly and Gonzalez. I assume Jeisson Rosario, who was claimed on waivers last week, will be first to go. I don’t know what’s up with Gomez (elbow surgery) or Ridings (back/shoulder), though it sounds like Ridings might be a 60-day injured list candidate. Here’s what he told Max Goodman two weeks ago:

"I slipped a disk during a lift back in January or February. With the lockout, it's been tough to get on the right path," Ridings told Inside The Pinstripes in the clubhouse at George M. Steinbrenner Field on Wednesday. "We thought it was getting better, picked up a ball again and something in my shoulder didn't quite feel right. That's really all I know right now."

…

"Even if I came in today, and I was like, 'hey everything feels great,' with the amount of time I missed before getting here due to the lockout and navigating the injury, I have to go through my full buildup."

A full buildup for a reliever is not the same as a full buildup for a starter, but it ain’t hard to see the Yankees putting Ridings on the 60-day injured list, letting him build up over 30-45 days, then running out the rest of the 60-day clock on a minor league rehab assignment. There have been no updates on Ridings the last two weeks but he seems 60-day injured list-y to me.

I think those two extra roster spots in April are the only spots really up for debate right now. Could Ender Inciarte beat out Locastro for a bench spot? Sure. Could Max McDowell beat out Brantly for the backup catcher’s job? Yeah, I suppose so. With six days to go before Opening Day, I think the 26-man portion of the 28-man roster is pretty well set. Those last two spots are less clear.

Abreu being out of options (and pitching well in his limited Grapefruit League action) gives him a leg up on a roster spot, I believe. I know the Yankees have talked up Marinaccio and Sears, plus Garcia, Gil, and Schmidt have thrown the ball well, but you have two extra roster spots. Why cut bait on a guy with Abreu’s arm before it’s absolutely necessary? I think he’s in.

As much as I’d love to see Banuelos make the Opening Day roster, I’m not sold on it happening. Remember, Luetge only made the team last year because Justin Wilson got hurt. Luetge had that monster spring and the Yankees were still ready to send him to Triple-A. I could see them saying “we know Manny is a great story, but it’s only six spring innings, let's take some more time to evaluate him.”

Gil’s success last season combined with the fact he’s been used in (long) relief this spring leads me to believe he’s ahead of Garcia and Schmidt in the pecking order. I think the Yankees are preparing him for an early season long relief role. This is my guess at the depth chart for those two extra roster spots:

1. RHP Albert Abreu
2. RHP Luis Gil
3. RHP Clarke Schmidt
4. LHP Manny Banuelos
5. RHP Ron Marinaccio
6. LHP JP Sears
7. RHP Deivi Garcia

The Yankees still love Schmidt and I think that, while they’re excited about what they’ve seen out of Deivi this spring, they’re not ready to throw him to the wolves. I think they want him to go to Triple-A and get on a roll, and build some confidence. They’ll call Garcia up if they have to, but I think their preference is to not do that on Opening Day.

Of course, Gil being on the Opening Day roster does not mean he’ll stay there all April. He could be (and very likely will be) sent down in favor of a fresh arm the day after throwing 3-4 innings or whatever. You know how it goes. I would be stunned if the Yankees use one of the extra roster spots on a position player and I would be less stunned if Andujar beats out Gonzalez for a bench spot, though I think Marwin’s in. The two extra roster spots are the only real mystery.

3. Bold predictions for 2022. Opening Day is six days away and it is time, once again, for my annual bold predictions. I started doing these in 2017 and hit on seven of 10 that year. Since then I’ve gone an Odorian 1-for-20 (2018, 2019, 2020, 2021). Last season I should’ve gone with “the Yankees will turn three triple plays” or “they’ll throw their first no-hitter since David Cone’s perfect game” or “they’ll have their longest winning streak since 1961.” Alas.

I’m going to take more swings this year and go back to 10 predictions. I figure I’ve got a better chance to bloop in a hit that way. Here are my 10 bold predictions for the 2022 Yankees.

1. The Yankees will make a trade before Opening Day

No inside info here, just a guess (or, rather, a bold prediction). The Yankees have made several last minute trades at the end of Spring Training in recent years (Chris Stewart in 2012, Gregorio Petit in 2015, Mike Tauchman in 2019) and I think they’ll do it again this year. Sean Manaea and/or Frankie Montas would be ideal. I’m not thinking that big though.

In this case, I’m boldly predicting the Yankees will trade away a roster player rather than add one. Specifically, I think Miguel Andujar is a goner. I don’t think the Yankees have any interest in paying him $1.3M to play in Triple-A, and they need to open 40-man roster space for the backup catcher (Rob Brantly) and it likely Marwin Gonzalez too. Trading Andujar is one way to do it.

Where does Andujar go? Eh, tough to figure out, though the Athletics and Rockies could use a DH. There could also be an injury between now and Opening Day that stirs up a market, similar to the Fernando Tatis Jr. injury putting the Padres in the mix for Luke Voit. The bold prediction is a trade before Opening Day. The sub-bold prediction is the trade involves Miggy Missiles.

"As I've said, we've stayed in touch and engaged a lot of clubs about what our needs seem to be right now and if something comes out of any of those discussions, great,” Brian Cashman told Max Goodman last week. “If not, we're prepared to go with what we have here."

2. Judge does not sign a long-term extension

Cashman said the Yankees will make Aaron Judge an extension offer before Opening Day and I think both sides will genuinely work to get a deal done. Ultimately, I think it doesn’t get done, and Judge goes into the season without an extension. He hasn’t completely closed the door on talking about a deal in-season, but for all intents and purposes, the deadline is six days away.

"I’m gonna stick with that deadline," Judge told Dan Martin recently. "I think it’s best for both parties, so they can focus on what they need to do and I can focus on what I need to do, which is on the field. If we’re not close by then, what’s the point of communicating in the season?"

Keep in mind that, even if he loses an arbitration hearing this year and even after salary proration in 2020, Judge’s career earnings will be north of $32M by the end of the season. Then there’s all the endorsements. Judge is financially secure in a way many players aren’t before free agency, and is better able to bet on himself. He can hold a harder line during extension talks.

To be clear, I am not predicting the Yankees will let Judge walk as a free agent. I’m saying I don’t think they’ll get an extension done that prevents him from hitting the open market. I think the most likely outcome is a one-year deal for 2022, then the Yankees re-sign Judge as a free agent after the season. An extension will be big and fairly complicated, and I don’t think there’s enough time to get it done before Opening Day. So, no Judge extension.

3. Banuelos throws 75 innings for the Yankees

Irrational? Maybe, but bold predictions are made for indulging irrationality. The Yankees signed Manny Banuelos, once their top prospect, to a minor league contract during the lockout and he’s looked good in camp. Velocity is up about 2 mph from his last big league stint in 2019, missing bats with the changeup, breaking ball’s been good, etc. It’s been fun in a small sample.

“He’s looked good the whole camp,” Aaron Boone told Brendan Kuty last week. “Commands the ball. I like his presence out there. He’s got some pitchability. The ability to change speeds. He’s got a feel like he knows what he’s doing out there, and he’s been consistent throughout this camp with that so far.”

Pitchers not on the Opening Day roster threw 364.1 innings last year, or 25% of the Yankees’ season total. It was 418.2 innings (29%) in 2019 and 377.2 innings (26%) in 2018. I like Deivi Garcia and Luis Gil as much as anyone, but there will be innings available beyond them. I am boldly predicting Banuelos gets at least 75 of ‘em in 2022. It has been foretold.

4. Torres returns to the All-Star Game

A 25-year-old two-time All-Star making the All-Star Game usually doesn’t qualify as bold because those guys tend to be superstars, but Gleyber Torres is a special case. A special case because his play slipped significantly the last two seasons and didn’t warrant All-Star Game consideration (there was no All-Star Game in 2020, though Torres wouldn’t have made it anyway).

I am down on Gleyber, enough that I traded him as part of my Offseason Plan (to be fair, I didn’t give him away), but I’ll jump on the “Torres will be an All-Star in 2022” bandwagon. Why not? He's looked good in camp, he finished last season well (.289/.338/.456 and 115 wRC+ after the All-Star break), and he has the new dad thing going. Having a kid changes your outlook.

“Too many feelings. I feel like my life has changed. It’s a lot of motivation to get better,” Torres told Bryan Hoch about recently becoming a father, adding Andujar used to (somewhat jokingly) say every hitless game took food out of his kid’s mouth.

Second base is stacked in the American League (Jose Altuve, Brandon Lowe, Marcus Semien, Trevor Story, etc.), so Gleyber could have a strong bounceback season and still not be selected to the All-Star Game. I’m boldly predicting he will, however. Torres proves the doubters wrong and finds himself at the All-Star Game in Dodger Stadium in July.

5. The Yankees will make another Gallo trade

I don’t mean the Yankees will trade Joey Gallo. I mean they’ll make another Gallo-esque trade in which they give up four-ish prospects (but not their very best prospects) for a prime-aged player under control beyond the current season. The best, most obvious target: Bryan Reynolds. A few things to consider:

• Reynolds has rejected multiple extension offers. That doesn’t mean he’s unwilling to sign long-term with Pittsburgh, just that he won’t do so at the numbers presented.
• He’s into his arbitration years as a Super Two. He filed for $4.9M, the team $4.25M, and they are going to a hearing. Reynolds is getting expensive (for the Pirates).
• Reynolds is already 27. He’s not old, but the Pirates will not contend during his prime. He will likely be on the wrong side of 30 by time they get back into the race.

I know the Yankees like to do the under-the-radar thing, but sometimes they go for the obvious target, like Gallo last year. Reynolds is a switch-hitter with contact skills and the exit velocities the Yankees crave, plus he’s under control through 2025. He’s a center fielder now, though I could see the Yankees sticking him in their spacious left field moving forward.

Pittsburgh asked the Mariners for top prospect Julio Rodriguez at the deadline last year and the Marlins for some combination of top prospects JJ Bleday, Max Meyer, and Khalil Watson prior to the lockout. They have a big asking price and it’s not unreasonable. Reynolds should not come cheap and Pittsburgh is not wrong to want an elite prospect in return for this guy.

When the Yankees trade a tippy top prospect, it’s because they don’t like the player as much as they let on publicly. Think Jesus Montero and Justus Sheffield. My sense is the Yankees sincerely love Jasson Dominguez, Oswald Peraza, and Anthony Volpe (they definitely love Volpe). Making a Reynolds trade without those dudes could be tough. Impossible? No, but tough.

I think the Yankees have enough high-end prospect depth to swing a trade anyway. Would the Yankees part with, say, Roderick Arias? They’ll have an out of minor league options (Estevan Florial, Deivi Garcia, Luis Gil, Luis Medina) and Rule 5 Draft (Anthony Garcia, Antonio Gomez, Alex Vargas, Randy Vasquez, etc.) logjam to clear out in the next 12 months. So, maybe?

Point is, I’m boldly predicting the Yankees will make another “trade a bunch of non-elite prospects for a good player with control beyond this season” at the deadline. Maybe it’s Reynolds, maybe it’s someone else. Whoever it is, get ready to say goodbye to your favorite second tier prospects. The Yankees are gonna trade a few more of them in July.

6. Gallo and Rizzo each hit 30 homers

The last time the Yankees had two lefties hit 30 home runs in a season was 2012, when Robbie Cano (33) and Curtis Granderson (43) did it. Can you guess the last time before that? Cano and Granderson didn’t do it in 2011. Jason Giambi and Hideki Matsui never did it together. Neither did Tino Martinez and Paul O’Neill. It was Don Mattingly (30) and Mike Pagliarulo (32) in 1987. Yep.

For this bold prediction, I’m saying Gallo and Anthony Rizzo both hit 30 homers in 2022. Gallo is pretty much a lock as long as he stays healthy. Even last year when he struggled after the trade, he hit at a 36-homer pace with the Yankees. This is a “Rizzo will hit 30 homers” bold prediction more than anything, and Rizzo hasn’t hit 30 homers since 2017.

My thinking is this: Rizzo’s contact quality is still pretty good (95th percentile max exit velocity and a 101.5 mph average on his top 45% batted ball) and he’s a lefty who pulls the ball an awful lot. Here is his 2022-21 spray chart*. It is well-suited for Yankee Stadium:

Also, Rizzo is less likely to lose homers to the big new left field at Camden Yards because he’s a lefty hitter, plus the universal humidor figures to make Tropicana Field a little more hitter friendly. Conditions have changed in other AL East parks that could boost Rizzo’s homer output (Tampa), or at least not hurt it as much as it will hurt other hitters (Baltimore).

Yankees history is littered with great left-handed batters, like all-time great lefty swingers, yet only once in the last 34 years have they had two lefties hit 30 homers in the same season. I’m boldly predicting that changes in 2022 with Rizzo getting to 30 home runs for first time since 2017, and Gallo doing what Gallo does.

* Why did Baseball Savant take away the ability to plot spray charts based on batted ball type or exit velocity? A spray chart with different hit/out types isn’t as helpful!

7. Cole will throw 200 innings

This might not seem bold. After all, Gerrit Cole threw 181.1 innings last season, and probably would have gotten to 200 innings if not for his COVID absence and late season hamstring issue. That said, the 200-inning starter is a dying breed, and Cole will have a few things working against him as he pursues 200 innings in 2022. Consider:

• Only four – four! – pitchers threw 200 innings last year (Sandy Alcantara, Walker Buehler, Adam Wainwright, Zack Wheeler). The trend for the entirety of baseball history has been using pitchers less and less. It will continue.
• Cole was effective after the foreign substance crackdown but much less efficient. He averaged 15.4 pitches per inning before the crackdown and 17.3 after. More pitches per inning equals fewer total innings.
• Like many pitchers, Cole will not be fully stretched out when the season begins because of the short Spring Training. That will cut into his overall workload.

Despite all that, I’m boldly predicting Cole will reach 200 innings because a) he’s excellent and a workhorse, b) I think he’s going to make sticky stuff-related adjustments that lead to a few quick outs, and c) the improved defense will save him pitches. That last one is kind of a big deal. The Yankees were a comfortably below average defensive team behind Cole last year.

Cole is toying with a cutter this spring and he threw a bunch of two-seamers after the crackdown last year. Cutters and two-seamers, particularly when used together, are conducive to first or second pitch weak contact outs. Adding even one or two of those per start will allow Cole to pitch deeper into games and get up over 200 innings, a level he reached four times from 2015-19.

The Yankees have not had a pitcher throw 200 innings since Hiroki Kuroda (201.1) and CC Sabathia (211) both did it in 2013, if you can believe that. Masahiro Tanaka fell one out short in 2016 and Luis Severino got over 190 innings in 2017 and 2019, but not 200 innings. This year Cole and the Yankees make their triumphant return to the 200 innings club.

8. The Yankees will have a top five defense

The Yankees went all-in on improved defense this offseason and those efforts really date back to last trade deadline, when they brought in Gallo and Rizzo, two guys who are pluses in the field. Here’s how four public defensive metrics rated the Yankees last season:

• Defensive Efficiency: .698 (11th in MLB)
• DRS: -41 (29th)
• OAA: -22 (25th)
• UZR: -3.8 (15th)

DRS and OAA include pitch-framing. Defensive Efficiency, which is nothing more than the percentage of batted balls the defense turned into outs, and UZR do not. The Yankees were middle of the pack when you ignore framing. Include framing and they ranked near the bottom of the league defensively.

Teams don’t put as big a run value on framing as the public metrics, but we only have the public metrics, and the Kyle Higashioka/Ben Rortvedt tandem should be one of the best framing duos in the game. Exactly 100 catchers caught at least 100 pitches last year and Higashioka ranked 13th in framing. Rortvedt was 24th. Gary Sanchez was 97th.

The framing upgrade will do much of the heavy lifting for this bold prediction. Gary’s my guy, but he rated as a terrible framer, and he caught 61% of the team’s innings in 2021. The defensive stats never loved Gio Urshela as much as the eye test, so Josh Donaldson will help at third base. So will Rizzo at first, Isiah Kiner-Falefa at short, and a full season of Gallo.

DRS and UZR have been around since 2002 and the Yankees have never been top five in either. OAA has been around since 2016 and they've never been top five in that either. The Yankees were top five in Defensive Efficiency as recently as 2017 (tied for first!). This year, the Yankees will be top five in one of these metrics. I don’t care which one. All I need is one to claim victory.

9. The Yankees will beat a non-AL Central team in the postseason

The Yankees have not beaten a non-AL Central team in an actual postseason series (so not the Athletics in the 2018 Wild Card Game) since beating the Orioles in the 2012 ALDS. Here is their postseason record since beating the O’s in that series:

• Won series: 2017 ALDS vs. Cleveland, 2019 ALDS vs. Twins, 2020 Wild Card Series vs. Cleveland
• Lost series: 2014 ALCS vs. Tigers, 2017 ALCS vs. Astros, 2018 ALDS vs. Red Sox, 2019 ALCS vs. Astros, 2020 ALDS vs. Rays

It is entirely possible four AL East teams will make the postseason this year. I can see a scenario in which the Blue Jays, Rays, Red Sox, and Yankees beat up on each other and allow the Astros and White Sox to grab those two byes in the new 12-team postseason format, setting up a Wild Card Series round with the four non-Orioles AL East teams. That would be wild.

The Yankees only have so much control here. They’ll win as many games as they can and finish with the best record they can, and the postseason seeding is whatever it is. I’m boldly predicting the Yankees make the postseason and win a series against a non-AL Central team. Maybe they beat the Red Sox in the Wild Card Series and get it out of the way early. Maybe they beat the Twins in the Wild Card Series, the Tigers in the ALDS, the White Sox in the ALCS, then get it done when they beat the Dodgers in the World Series. That works too.

10. Volpe emerges as the No. 1 prospect in baseball

I’m not alone here. The great Jim Callis recently picked Volpe as the favorite to be the sport’s No. 1 prospect next year. If Callis believes it, who am I to argue? Volpe ranked no lower than 15th on the top 100 prospects lists this spring. He was highest on ESPN’s list. He ranked sixth. Here are the five players ranked ahead of him:

1. C Adley Rutschman, Orioles (likely to graduate to MLB)
2. SS Bobby Witt Jr., Royals (likely to graduate to MLB)
3. OF Julio Rodriguez, Mariners (likely to graduate to MLB)
4. SS C.J. Abrams, Padres
5. OF Riley Greene, Tigers (likely to graduate to MLB)

Other consensus top 15 prospects like Rays RHP Shane Baz, Orioles RHP Grayson Rodriguez, and Tigers 1B Spencer Torkelson figure to graduate this season. Volpe’s biggest competition for the No. 1 spot next year will be guys like Abrams, Mets C Francisco Alvarez, Blue Jays C Gabriel Moreno, 2022 draftees, and anyone who has a breakout year like Volpe did last season.

It’s not Volpe’s fault the Yankees passed on the best free agent shortstop class ever. He is an excellent prospect with a combination of plate discipline, contact, and power (and defense) that should allow him to have success at the upper levels, and put him in the conversation for the No. 1 prospect in baseball after the season. I’m boldly predicting he claims that top spot.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Anthony asks: I know it's only spring so who really knows, but the ball seems to be jumping, doesn't it? We've seen some mammoth homers. DJL homer the other day really stuck out to me. Torres too. Could just be very early and small sample size. (also says a lot about our sport that we have to question this every year).

Yeah, I think the ball is flying more too. I’ve seen a few homers that carried over the wall despite looking like jam shots or off the end of the bat. Like this and this and even this. My read off the bat on all three was playable fly ball, and yet they wound up in the seats. Jay Cuda saved me the trouble and dug up the Spring Training home run rate numbers:

The ball is leaving the yard this spring at the same rate as the 2019 rocket ball regular season. League-wide Spring Training strikeout, walk, and homer rates usually match up well with the regular season. For an individual player, spring stats can be deceiving. On a league-wide level with tens of thousands of plate appearances, they tend to be predictive, so the home run rate this spring is not something to brush aside as meaningless.

The caveat is this is an unusual Spring Training. Pitchers are not fully stretched out and, even with the regular season a week away, we’re still seeing a lot of innings go to minor leaguers who otherwise won’t sniff the show in 2022. I can buy the regular season homer rate being lower than what it is this spring. But just looking at the way the ball is carrying, I dunno, it seems pretty lively to me. More lively than last year.

When MLB got caught using two different balls last season, they said the “2022 season will be played with only balls manufactured after the production change.” I wish I could believe them and I wish I knew exactly what they meant. Bottom line, we don’t know how the 2022 ball will play because we didn’t know how the ball would play the last 5-6 years now. Spring Training suggests it will be a homer happy ball. Maybe even very homer happy, like 2019.

Mike asks: William Contreras. Would seeking a trade with the Braves for the less popular Contreras brother make sense? He shows promise and power, but needs more seasoning. I know this wouldn’t be a right away 2022 solution, but perhaps with our MiLB hitting/catching coaches, he could he a second half call up. And then part of the long term solution.

Yes, it would definitely make sense. William is not the same caliber of prospect as Willson back in the day, but he’s good, and looks like a potential big leaguer. For a rookie catcher, he has been okay in limited MLB time (.225/.308/.405 and 89 wRC+ in 195 plate appearances), and he put up a .290/.357/.516 (133 wRC+) line in 44 Triple-A games in 2021. That has my attention.

William will play this entire season at age 24. He exhausted his prospect eligibility last year, so he didn’t get any write-ups this spring. Here’s what Baseball America (subs. req’d) wrote about Contreras going into last season:

Contreras is a solid athlete for a catcher, has a strong throwing arm and shows plus raw power at the plate. He previously struggled with consistency and focus as a defender, but he made massive strides in 2020 spring training and throughout the year. He worked hard to improve his defense with catching coordinator J.D. Closser to the point where some now believe he could become a plus defender. He moves well behind the plate and has improved as both a receiver and blocker. At the plate, Contreras has the raw power to homer to all fields, but most of his in-game power has gone to his pull side. He has a tendency to chase at times, but generally puts together quality at-bats with a good two-strike approach … He has a chance to become an everyday catcher as long as his defensive improvements hold.

For what it’s worth, Closser was a coach in the Yankees’ system from 2014-18 and their minor league catching instructor from 2018-19. He’s the guy they hired Tanner Swanson to replace, so perhaps there’s a “we didn’t like the way Closser worked with our catchers and we don’t want any of his current pupils” component in play with Contreras. I doubt it, but I dunno.

Atlanta’s catching situation is kinda complicated. They just traded Shea Langeliers, a former first rounder and their former catcher of the future, in the Matt Olson deal. That gives Contreras a clear path behind the plate, though he only has one minor league option year remaining, and veterans Travis d’Arnaud and Manny Pina are both entering Year 1 of a two-year deal. Hmmm.

I had three catchers on my top 30 prospects list but a) basically no one believes Austin Wells will catch long-term, b) Antonio Gomez is years away from the big leagues, and c) Josh Breaux isn’t the kinda prospect who should stop you from getting someone else at the same position. If you have a chance to get a young catcher, I think you do it*, and sort it all out later.

* I like the Ben Rortvedt pickup! I don’t like handing him the reins to a catching job in 2021. The guy’s played 55 games in Double-A and 34 in Triple-A. Could we suss him out a little more in the minors before counting on him contributing to a contender?

I’m not sure the Braves are willing to trade Contreras (he’s the only young catcher of note in their system following the Langeliers trade) but I would be in favor of targeting him in a trade. He’s not perfect and he might never be a star. There’s enough tools and recent performance to make him interesting though. Pick him up, see what happens in 2021, then reevaluate going into 2022.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)