March 25th, 2022: Montgomery, Garcia, LeMahieu, Arbitration, Judge, Mailbag

UPDATE: I forgot to include those complicated Brett Gardner and Darren O'Day player option buyouts in my payroll estimate below. Those buyouts lowered their luxury tax hits in 2021 and added a charge in 2022. It's not much and it doesn't really change anything, but the post is updated.

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NYC’s private employer mandate was reversed for performers and athletes Thursday, so unvaccinated Yankees (and Mets) can play home games. Unvaccinated Yankees still aren’t allowed into Toronto, but they can play home games. Now let us never talk about this again. Here are today’s thoughts.

1. Grapefruit League observations. It took about a week, but the bats are beginning to round into form as we approach Opening Day. The first week of spring games are usually sloppy with a lot of ugly swings and this year was no different. Here are some thoughts on the last few days.

Montgomery labors

Rough outing for Jordan Montgomery against what was most of the Blue Jays’ regular lineup Tuesday. He gave up three runs and got one out in the first inning, the re-enter rule allowed him to start the second, and he could only get two more outs. Montgomery got knocked out in two separate innings. He threw 49 pitches and got only two swings and misses, and the first was on his 41st pitch.

“Honestly, I was just kind of nervous and tense. I wanted to get it out of the way,” Montgomery told Bryan Hoch. “I wanted to work on my fastball location and got a little wild, trying to overthrow. I cleaned it up a little bit in the second inning, moving on the mound a little smoother. I’m just trying to be athletic and have some rhythm out there.”

Two things caught my eye. First, Montgomery’s fastball velocity was down about 1 mph and his curveball was down closer to 2 mph. That’s not so far down that it’s a red flag, it’s more like a yellow flag given the weird spring and all that, but it is a flag. Montgomery and Aaron Boone both acknowledged his velocity was down too. Usually teams dance around velocity questions.

“He just didn’t quite have that last gear on (his fastball),” Boone told Hoch. “He’s probably just getting in a really good rhythm mechanically with his delivery and stuff. He wasn’t quite gripping it. I don’t think it’s far off.”

And second, Montgomery’s arm slot was lower than it has been in the past. I thought maybe I was just seeing things during the game, but I think it’s noticeable here …

… and the numbers back it up. Statcast says Montgomery’s average vertical release point was 6.70 feet last year and 6.55 feet in his start this week, and the difference of 0.15 feet is close to two inches (1.8 inches, to be exact). It’s not much, but it could be enough to explain the missing velocity and poor location. Montgomery’s release point was once way up here …

… and pitchers can drop their arm with age. CC Sabathia did. Montgomery will pitch the entire season at age 29, so he’s a young man. He’s also a veteran pitcher with about 15 years worth of competitive innings and wear and tear built up, and the arm doesn’t always work the same way after that. Pitchers drop their arms as they get older. It happens.

Hopefully this nearly two-inch drop in release point is a Spring Training blip Montgomery can iron it out in the bullpen between starts rather than a Deivi Garcia-esque mechanical disaster. The Montgomery on the mound this week looked different than the Montgomery of last year and not in a good way. His arm was lower and his velocity was down. It’s a thing to monitor, for sure.

Deivi’s debut

It was only two innings and 27 pitches against a trash Orioles lineup (the O’s sent most of their regulars on the trip, to be fair), but Garcia looked pretty good the other night. He sat right around 95 mph with the fastball (94.9 mph average, to be exact) and topped out at 96.1 mph. Last year he was mostly low 90s and had to reach back for 95 mph in Triple-A.

“His fastball looks in such a better place. Had better carry in the strike zone. Last year, we saw him pull the fastball and missing wide off the plate,” Boone told Dan Martin. “... When you’re young, talented, and have a lot of success, the game has a way of humbling you. I think he’s grown from it.”

The fastball having more zip was nice, and Garcia has made adjustments to his delivery. He was a mess last year. His arm slot dropped and everything flattened out. This year the Yankees have Garcia working out of a modified stretch windup (similar to Jameson Taillon) and his arm slot was up higher too. Forgive the quality, but you can kinda see it here:

Last year Garcia’s average vertical release point in his two MLB starts was 5.50 feet (it was 5.42 feet in 2020). On Wednesday night, it was … 5.52 feet. But! But that’s good, because it indicates Garcia is back where he was before things fell apart. Deivi was in a good enough place last April and May that the Yankees were comfortable giving him spot starts. It wasn’t until the summer that things collapsed, and the Yankees considered him a non-option.

“I think I’m more back to being myself,” Garcia told Martin. “I’m trying to get back to a natural set of movements and not overthinking my mechanics.”

Garcia threw just one curveball among his 27 pitches Wednesday, and when he was going good in 2020, he threw the curve about 15% of the time. Last spring I noted Deivi had some issues telegraphing his curveball. Specifically, he threw it from a higher arm slot than everything else, so the pitch played down despite good spin and break. Hitters could see it coming.

I’m curious to see whether Deivi and the Yankees cut back on his curveball and go full bore with his slider, a pitch that works better for his arm slot and a pitch he releases from the same spot as his fastball. That seemed to be the case Wednesday, when Garcia threw 14 fastballs and eight sliders. Scrapping the curve and going with sliders makes sense.

Overall, there are no positives to take from Garcia’s 2021. It was a total disaster. I’m somewhat optimistic he can bounce back because it’s just (“just”) a mechanical issue, and by all accounts Deivi is smart and coachable. His stuff didn’t drop a grade with the same mechanics. Fix the mechanics and you fix Garcia, at least in theory.

The velocity was good Wednesday night, the delivery was adjusted (if nothing else, it’s simpler now that he’s going from the quasi-stretch), and the curveball usage is something to monitor. This is Garcia’s final minor league option year. Either he gets it right this season or he’s out of the organization. Wednesday’s start was a good little first step back.

“I’ve said before you can never have a bad game because you always learn, even if the result is not what you want,” Garcia told Martin. “I think I’m better suited to facing adversity and how to snap out of it quicker when it does happen. That’s something you have to figure out and I think I did that.”

LeMahieu’s homer

Nice start to Spring Training for DJ LeMahieu, who is 2-for-8 with a double and a home run, and looks to be moving well post-hernia surgery. He went deep Wednesday night, yanking an 89 mph hanging slider on the inner half out to left field. Here’s the video. We didn’t see LeMahieu turn on an inside pitch like that much at all last season.

“By the end of last year, we pulled the plug because it got to that point,” Boone told Martin after the game. “DJ is as tough as they come. He plays through stuff all the time. In my eyes last year and especially the last several weeks and last several days, it was the only decision to make (shutting him down). He’s 100% now.”

LeMahieu put 508 balls in play last season and only 23 topped the 106.1 mph exit velocity on Wednesday’s homer. Only five times in 2021 did he hit a ball in the air that hard to the pull field. So, what we saw Wednesday night was something we saw not even once a month last year. If nothing else, I am 100% sold on LeMahieu being healthy. He’s not in rehab mode or anything.

I don’t want to make too much of one home run and say LeMahieu is BACK. Pulling the ball with authority isn’t really his thing anyway. He’s an opposite field guy. Still, it’s good to see it’s in there. LeMahieu lost that hard-hit ability last year, particularly down the stretch when the hernia really became an issue. Wednesday showed us LeMahieu can still do it, and that’s better than not seeing it.

First roster cuts

The Yankees announced their first set of roster cuts earlier this week. There are still 55 players in big league camp and Opening Day is 13 days away, so the cuts are going to start coming fast and furious soon. Here’s the first set of cuts:

• RHP Luis Medina optioned to Double-A Somerset.
• OF Everson Pereira optioned to High-A Hudson Valley.
• RHP Yoendrys Gomez optioned to Low-A Tampa.

Those assignments do not mean those players are beginning the season at that level. Those are just their minor league camp workout group. Opening Day assignments can be (and often are) different from the player’s spring workout group. That said, those players beginning the regular season at those levels would be reasonable (the Yankees have enough Triple-A rotation depth to start Medina back in Double-A).

Medina did not get into a Grapefruit League game before being sent out, which is a) a bummer because I wanted to see him pitch, and b) not completely shocking. He appeared in only two Grapefruit League games last spring (one inning each and four weeks apart), so the lack of exposure is nothing new. With a truncated camp, I get giving Medina’s innings to other pitchers.

Pereira went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts during his limited Grapefruit League action, and the one ball in play was a lazy fly ball. Player with 46 career games above rookie ball isn’t ready for prime time. News at 11. Gomez is still rehabbing from last year’s elbow surgery. MLB.com released their new top 30 Yankees prospects list earlier this week and Gomez's scouting report says he is “expected to return to game action early in the 2022 season.” Early as in April? May? I dunno.

Because he has not yet made his MLB debut, the Yankees can option Gomez and then put him on the 60-day injured list to open a 40-man roster spot. He won’t collect big league pay or service time. It’s dumb, but that’s the rule. Even if Gomez is healthy, the Yankees can put him on the 60-day injured list to clear a 40-man spot, and send him to an affiliate on a “rehab” assignment to game the system and get an extra 40-man spot for a few weeks. We’ll see how they play it.

Miscellany

As noted in the offseason, three of the five pitchers with the biggest increase in horizontal slider movement last year were Yankees, and it’s time to put Lucas Luetge on slider movement watch. Last year his slider averaged 9.2 inches of horizontal break. So far in Spring Training it’s 17.5 (!) inches, and he hasn’t thrown a slider with less than 13.3 inches of movement. Luetge has only thrown 13 sliders during Grapefruit League play, but even in a sample that tiny, that much of an increase in movement suggests it’s intentional. A thing to watch … Clarke Schmidt’s average fastball velocity was 94.8 mph in 2020 and 93.0 mph in 2021. In Thursday’s start, it was 95.9 mph, so that’s good. I don’t think it’ll stay there all year, but Schmidt’s stuff was down following last year’s elbow injury, so it’s good to see a rebound. Big season for Schmidt. He turned 26 last month and it’s time to take that step forward and carve out a role. You don’t want to go into your age 27 season without having established yourself in the big leagues … Joely Rodriguez topped out at 91.9 mph with his sinker Thursday after averaging 94.0 mph last year, and he gave up five runs while getting only two outs. That is, uh, bad. As the last or second to last guy in the bullpen, Rodriguez’s leash won’t be long if this continues into the regular season … Spring Training is when pitchers toy around with things and Chad Green threw two changeups the other night. Here’s one. The Yankees are all-in on changeups and if Green figures one out, great. If not, then whatever. I think he’s just messing around with it rather than trying to incorporate it into his repertoire. He’d throw more than two in a 17-pitch outing if it were a real point of emphasis … Nice outing for Matt Krook the other day. Granted, he faced a bunch of minor leaguers late in the game, but he faced 10 batters and struck out five with a bunch of ground balls. Here’s video (he’s No. 77). I’m a Krook fan and a guy with his strikeout and ground ball ability will get a big league opportunity at some point, control issues be damned. Maybe that opportunity comes with the Yankees, maybe it comes with another team (Krook is among the players possibly hurt by the Rule 5 Draft being canceled). There’s big league utility in there. He’s got a shot to contribute.

2. Arbitration salaries and Judge’s filing. The arbitration salary filing deadline was earlier this week and the Yankees signed 11 of their 12 arbitration-eligible players before having to exchange figures. That’s usually what happens. There were nearly 200 unsigned arbitration-eligible players coming out of the lockout and only 31 had to file salary figures. All the others signed. Let’s break down the arbitration news, shall we?

Signed players

The Yankees avoided arbitration with Domingo German ($1.75M) and Lucas Luetge ($905,000) prior to the lockout. Same with Gio Urshela, though he’s since been traded. Here are the 11 arbitration-eligible players the Yankees signed before the filing deadline this week, with their MLBTR projected salary:

• Joey Gallo: $10.275M (projected $10.2M)
• Gleyber Torres: $6.25M (projected $5.9M)
• Jordan Montgomery: $6M (projected $4.8M)
• Jameson Taillon: $5.8M (projected $4.7M)
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa: $4.7M (projected $4.9M)
• Chad Green: $4M (projected $4.1M)
• Wandy Peralta: $2.15M (projected $1.7M)
• Jonathan Loaisiga: $1.65M (projected $1.7M)
• Miguel Andujar: $1.3M (projected $1.7M)
• Clay Holmes: $1.1M (projected $1M)
• Kyle Higashioka: $935,000 (projected $1.2M)

Montgomery and Taillon beat their projections the most, so good for them. Otherwise everyone fell more or less where MLBTR’s model projected them to fall. As a reminder, these salaries are based on similar players at the same service time level. Gallo was compared to outfielders in their third year of arbitration, Torres to infielders in their second year as a Super Two, etc.

Under the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, all arbitration contracts are fully guaranteed as long as the two sides don’t go to a hearing. In the past, players on arbitration contracts could be released in Spring Training and paid 30 or 45 days of termination pay depending when exactly they were released. That is no longer the case. Those 11 guys are all locked into those salaries in 2022 (not that I expect the Yankees to release any of them before Opening Day).

Judge’s case

Aaron Judge is among the 31 arbitration-eligible players who did not sign prior to the salary filing deadline. He filed a $21M salary. The Yankees filed at $17M (MLBTR projected $17.1M). Only five players in their final team control year have signed an arbitration contract worth at least $20M. Judge is looking to become the sixth. The five:

1. Mookie Betts: $27M in 2020
2. Francisco Lindor: $22.3M in 2021
3. Josh Donaldson: $23M in 2018
4. Trea Turner: $21M in 2022
5. George Springer: $21M in 2020

Nolan Arenado would have been on the list had he not signed his extension three years ago. He filed for $30M and the Rockies countered with $24M. That went away when he signed his deal. I’m sure Judge’s representatives used Springer as the basis for their filing number. The Yankees are a bit north of Khris Davis ($16.5M in 2019) and Manny Machado ($16M in 2018) money.

The $4M gap between Judge’s number and the team’s number is by far the largest this year (Zach Eflin is second with a $1.75M gap, $6.9M vs. $5.15M), and the largest since Springer and the Astros were $5M apart in 2020 ($22.5M vs. $17.5M). In terms of percentage, Judge’s gap is tenth largest this year at 23.5% of the team’s number. Spencer Turnbull and the Tigers are 58.5% apart ($2.1M vs. $1.325M).

“I think both sides wanted to come to an agreement,” Judge told Randy Miller. “I’m not happy not being able to settle on something and kind of work through it, but I think we’ve still got time. I know we both filed numbers, but it doesn’t mean the communication stops. Hopefully we can continue to communicate and find a number that works for both of us.”

This year arbitration hearings will be held during the season. It’ll be awkward, but the calendar makes it necessary. They did the same thing in 1995. The CBA has strict scheduling guidelines (hearings can’t be held on travel days, etc.) and players will be paid the team’s filing number while waiting for the ruling. If the player wins, he’ll be made whole.

There will be a weird dynamic with arbitration hearings this year because 2022 performance is not admissible, but it’s the kinda thing that could cloud the panel’s opinion. The Yankees could make a very convincing case Judge deserves $17M, but if the panel has seen “Judge is carrying the Yankees and he's the MVP favorite” headlines the previous three months, they might rule in his favor.

The Yankees have not been to an arbitration hearing since beating Dellin Betances in 2017 and they are not a “file and trial” team. Some teams cut off contract talks and go to a hearing once they file salary numbers. Not the Yankees. There are several examples of them filing salary figures, then agreeing to a deal (Aroldis Chapman in 2016, Luis Severino in 2019, etc.).

“I learned back then when Dellin went through it,” Judge told Miller. “I talked to him about the process, and I got a heads up how that works. Our team is prepared for it and is ready for it. They’ve been working hard collecting analytics information to help us go in there and win a case. But I would like to handle it before it got to that.”

Joel Sherman reports the Yankees are preparing a presentation regarding a long-term extension and will deliver it to Judge’s camp next week. I know it sounds dumb but that’s how these things work. They’re treating him like a free agent and want to sell him on the future of the organization. Judge knows the Yankees, but does he know what the Yankees are planning for 2023 and beyond? I doubt it, and I’m sure he wants to know before putting pen to paper.

Judge has said he’d like to remain with the Yankees the rest of his career. He’s also indicated he won’t discuss a contract after Opening Day, which isn’t uncommon. Here’s what Judge told Dan Martin about contract talks recently:

“If we’re able to talk and get something done in spring training before the season starts, that would be ideal, especially since this is an important year,’’ Judge said in his first comments of the spring. “We’ve got a lot of things to focus on during the course of the year, winning a division and winning a championship here in New York. I don’t want contract talks or extensions and all that talk to be a distraction throughout the year. So, if we’re able to agree to something here in the spring before we head up to New York, that’s wonderful and it would be an honor. If not, we’ll talk after the season.”

There are luxury tax considerations with an extension. Sign Judge to an extension now and his luxury tax hit is one number through the life of the deal. Sign him to a one-year contract to avoid arbitration, then tack an extension on top of that, and he’ll have different luxury tax hits in 2022 and then during the extension. Here’s an example:

• 8 year, $200M extension: $25M luxury tax hit from 2022-29
• $17M in 2022 plus 7 year, $183M extension: $17M luxury tax hit in 2022 and $26.1M from 2023-29

In both cases Judge gets $200M from 2022-29, though the luxury tax obligation is distributed differently. The Yankees are over the threshold this year, so it would make sense to go with an extension rather than one year plus an extension. Absorb a larger hit now to lower the hit down the road, when the Yankees will undoubtedly try to duck under the threshold at some point.

I have no idea whether the Yankees will get Judge locked up before Opening Day. They’re going to try, and if they’re successful, great. If not, then I guess they’ll shift their focus to a one-year contract for 2022, and deal with his free agency after the season. I’m not gonna lie, part of me is curious to see how an in-season arbitration hearing would play out. Feels like something both sides want to avoid though.

2022 payroll situation

Now that all but one arbitration-eligible has signed, we can get a pretty good handle on the luxury tax payroll situation. Here’s what the Yankees have on the books heading into 2022:

• Guaranteed contracts (11 players): $159.37M
• Arbitration-eligibles (14 players): $68.75M (assuming Judge wins hearing)
• Pre-arbitration-eligibles (3 players): $2.3M (estimated)
• Rest of 40-man roster: $2.5M (estimated)
• Dead money: $3M (Brett Gardner and Darren O'Day player option buyouts)
• Miscellany: $16.67M (benefits package plus pre-arb bonus pool charge)

Zack Britton is among the guaranteed contracts and Domingo German is among the arb guys, but they're injured and have to be replaced on the active roster. That’s why we need three pre-arb guys to fill out the 26-man roster, not one. It all adds up to $252.59M. Cot’s has the Yankees at $252.8M and FanGraphs has them at $262.2M for some reason.

My math has the Yankees just above the $250M penalty tier, and if they beat Judge in arbitration (or agree to a deal worth no more than $18.4M), they’ll duck under the threshold. Realistically, they won’t be able to stay under that $250M threshold. There are going to be injury call ups (at the new $700,000 minimum salary) and whatnot that take them over $250M.

Staying under the $270M penalty tier figures to be the goal. Exceed $270M and the team’s first round pick next year moves back 10 spots, and the Yankees used that as justification for staying under the plus-$40M threshold in 2019 and 2020. In that case, the Yankees still have about $17M in wiggle room based on my numbers and Cot’s numbers.

At minimum, the Yankees won’t (or shouldn’t) have to kick in extra/higher quality prospects to get the other team to eat money when making deadline trades like last year. At best, the Yankees can easily fit Sean Manaea ($9.75M) or Frankie Montas ($5.025M) under the $270M threshold (Sean Murphy is still in his pre-arb years). The Yankees should get on that.

3. Roster check-in. According to Joel Sherman, teams will begin the regular season with expanded rosters. They’ll have 28-man rosters until May 1st, then they’ll cut down to 26 players, then they’ll go back to 28 players in September. There will be no limit on pitchers in April, and Alden Gonzalez adds optional assignments in April won’t count toward the five-option maximum. That clock starts once rosters shrink back to 26 players.

Aaron Boone told Dan Martin the Yankees are “likely” to use those two extra April roster spots on pitchers, which makes sense seeing how the starters will only get stretched out to 70 pitches or so during Spring Training. So, with that in mind and with Opening Day two weeks away, let’s update the projected roster, shall we? This is what we’re looking at to start the season (asterisk means the player is out of options and has to go through waivers to be sent to the minors):

Abreu didn’t get to Tampa until last Thursday because of a visa holdup and he appeared in his first Grapefruit League game Thursday. He’s out of minor league options and the extra April roster spots might save his job with the Yankees. Hard to see him cracking the Opening Day roster otherwise.

I have Gil in the other extra spot figuring the Yankees will want someone who is stretched out and can chew up a bunch of innings. I assume that will be a shuttle bullpen spot, especially with the five-option rule not in effect in April. Could be Gil on the Opening Day roster, then Schmidt two days later, then Sears three days after that, etc.

The bench other than LeMahieu is wide open. Rortvedt’s injury makes Brantly the favorite to be the backup catcher on Opening Day. The Yankees have an open 40-man roster spot (more on that in a bit), so adding him will be easy. The question is will Brantly clear waivers and remain in the organization once Rortvedt returns and the Yankees try to send him to Triple-A? I guess we’ll find out.

Locastro having a Major League contract and Inciarte being on a minor league deal leads me to believe Locastro has a leg up on the fourth outfielder’s job. Neither guy has stood out one week into Grapefruit League play. Does Andujar get the other bench spot? Or do the Yankees go with the more versatile Gonzalez? Neither would surprise me. I have Andujar on the bench because someone has to be on the bench, though I’m not confident he’ll be the guy.

Obvious problem with that bench: no backup shortstop. Torres is the guy by default – “Right now he’s our backup shortstop,” Boone told Max Goodman last week – and the Yankees were so distressed by Gleyber’s defense at short that they moved him to second base and put their third baseman at shortstop in the middle of a postseason race last year. Gonzalez (and Jose Peraza) are veteran bench guys who can play short. No one on my bench in the table can.

Barring injury (fingers crossed), the Opening Day roster is pretty well set other than the non-LeMahieu bench players and the two extra April spots, right? The rotation is the rotation, those are the eight relievers the Yankees want in the bullpen, and the 10 position players (nine starters plus LeMahieu) are locked in. Figure out the bench, figure out who to give the extra April roster spots, and get to work.

4. Hot stove thoughts. It’s technically not hot stove season anymore, but two rumors and two pieces of news caught my eye this week, so let’s tackle them quickly.

Blue Jays interested in Gardner

According to multiple reports, the Blue Jays have reached out to Brett Gardner in recent days. They need a lefty hitting fourth outfielder who can play center field (even after trading for Raimel Tapia*) and Gardner is the only one available in free agency. He fits their roster well. Gardner has said he wants to play in 2022 and would prefer to stay with the Yankees, so maybe his agent is using a division rival to get the team’s attention? I could buy that.

* Good riddance, Randal Grichuk. He went to the Rockies for Tapia. Grichuk’s overall numbers against the Yankees aren’t amazing (.247/.299/.506 and 110 wRC+ in 65 games), but I’ve seen that guy get enough big hits against the Yankees to know I’m glad he’s in the NL West.

As I’ve said all offseason, I’ll believe Gardner won’t be on the 2022 Yankees when Opening Day arrives and he’s not on the roster. That said, Opening Day is less than two weeks away now, and if the Yankees were going to re-sign him, it probably would have happened by now. The Ender Inciarte/Tim Locastro duo doesn’t fill me with confidence, but my guess is the Yankees believe Locastro can approximate Gardner’s production at a lower cost.

Dodgers designate Beaty

Earlier this week the Dodgers designated utility man Matt Beaty for assignment to clear a roster spot for (former Yankee) Hanser Alberto. Beaty, 28, is a .262/.333/.425 (104 wRC+) hitter in 556 career big league plate appearances, including .270/.363/.402 (114 wRC+) in 234 plate appearances as a bench guy in 2021. The Dodgers don’t have room for this guy on their 40-man roster? That’s some kinda depth.

Beaty is a bit of a personal fave and he was in the 90/90 club two years ago. His average (90.0 mph to 86.7 mph) and top 45% (100.6 mph to 98.1 mph) exit velocities dipped significantly last year, though I still see him as a worthwhile pickup for the Yankees. The reasons:

• His 90.2% in-zone contact rate in 2021 was well above the 84.1% MLB average.
• He’s a lefty hitter with a tendency to pull the ball in the air to right field.
• He has experience playing the four corner positions.
• He’s familiar with being a part-timer and has been productive in that role.
• He has one minor league option and four years of team control remaining.

The numbers say Beaty is average defensively at first and third and below average in right and left, so he’s not gonna save you any runs, but he’s versatile and has lefty pull power. That makes him a pretty obvious fit for the Yankees. I love Miguel Andujar, you know that, but Beaty is such a better fit for the bench, which currently lacks a lefty bat (and has two catchers who will need to be pinch-hit for regularly).

The Yankees are 23rd in the waiver priority order (it’s the reverse order of last year’s standings through April) and I don’t think they can expect Beaty to get to them. Another team will claim him first, so you have to trade for him. The Dodgers will want a prospect not on the 40-man roster given their 40-man situation and I’d be willing to give them a pretty good one. A live arm like Beck Way, my No. 25 prospect? Sure. Beaty fits what the Yankees need on the bench.

Angels had interest in Voit

According to Ken Rosenthal, the Angels had interest in Luke Voit before spending their money on bullpen help. The Yankees traded Voit to the Padres for a pitching prospect last weekend and they’re such a better fit for him. The Angels have Shohei Ohtani (and Justin Upton) at DH and Jared Walsh at first, so Voit would’ve been a platoon player. He’ll play every day with the Padres.

Anaheim’s farm system ranks in the bottom third of baseball, and looking through FanGraphs’ top Angels prospects list, they don’t have an equivalent to Justin Lange. That live-armed kid with big upside who is years away from MLB. Most of their notable pitching prospects are 22+ years old. The Yankees didn’t have to target a Lange-ian pitcher, but eh, the Angels system isn’t great. Voit going to the Padres works best for Voit, the Padres, and Yankees.

White Sox claim Aybar

So long, Yoan Aybar. He was a Yankee for four days. They claimed Aybar off waivers from the Rockies on Sunday and the White Sox claimed him off waivers from the Yankees on Thursday. That opens the 40-man spot for Rob Brantly that I mentioned earlier. The timing indicates the Yankees claimed Aybar and immediately put him on waivers, hoping he’d slip through unclaimed and remain in the organization as a non-40-man roster player. No luck. What will you remember most about Aybar’s time with the Yankees? I’ll remember the 400 or so words I wrote for no reason the other day.

5. Rapid fire thoughts. Joel Sherman reports on two new rules. Well, one old rule and one new rule. First, the automatic runner in extra innings is back! Hooray! It’s just for 2022 (for now). I know I’m in the minority and I accept that, but I’m a fan of the rule. It creates more scoring and more action in general, and who cares if the rules change mid-game? This is all make believe. The rules of baseball weren’t handed down on stone tablets. We can change them whenever we want. And second, there’s a Shohei Ohtani rule now. It says that when the starting pitcher is in the DH spot, he can remain in the game as the DH even after being removed as a pitcher. Unless another two-way player comes around, this rule will only apply to Ohtani, and I think it’s great. He is a transcendent talent and MLB should do whatever it can to get him on the field as much as possible. Maybe another two-way player (a good two-way player) will come along one day and we can use this rule again. I hope so. For now, I am fully in favor of maximum Ohtani … And finally, Andrew Miller announced his retirement earlier this week. His final act as a player was working long hours as part of the MLBPA’s executive subcommittee and negotiating a Collective Bargaining Agreement he won’t benefit from. He’s a real one. Miller was a great Yankee for 1.5 seasons, though his greatest contribution to the cause will forever be giving up Greg Bird’s home run in Game 3 of the 2017 ALDS. Here’s the video. Pretty nuts that Miller and Cameron Maybin both had good long careers, and Miguel Cabrera still outlasted them both. Yet another reminder that when you trade prospects for a star, the team that gets the star usually wins.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Pat asks: You mentioned the possibility that 2022 could sour quickly and that the fans are pissed. How would you envision a sell off? Do you think they approach in the same way they did in 2016?  Who do you view as a definitive keeper? Should they instead do a total rebuild? I know you do an offseason plan, but maybe I could convince you to do a mid season hypothetical sell off plan?

If the Yankees are serious about a rebuild, they’ll eat a bunch of money to facilitate Gerrit Cole and Giancarlo Stanton trades, and I don’t expect that. And to be clear, I don’t believe the Yankees will be so far out of the race that they consider selling at the deadline this summer. They’re good! Not as good as they could have been, but with the extra postseason spot it would take a massive collapse to consider selling at the deadline.

Hypothetically though, let’s say the Yankees fall out of it and are well out of the postseason race in the days leading up to the trade deadline. In that case, they’d have a ton – A TON – of quality rentals to put out there. Every single one of these dudes will be a free agent after 2022:

• LHP Aroldis Chapman
• RHP Chad Green
• OF Aaron Judge
• OF Joey Gallo
• RHP Jameson Taillon
• RHP Luis Severino ($15M club option for 2023)

Pitching is always in demand and moving Green, Taillon, and Severino would be easy. If Severino pitches well enough to have trade value, the Yankees would probably want to keep him and pick up the option, though he would still have value if he pitches poorly, like Ivan Nova in 2016. The Yankees might have to eat money to move Chapman (owed $16M in 2022), but it’s doable. If they’re serious about maximizing the return, the Yankees will pay.

Unless Carlos Correa and/or Jacob deGrom use his opt out, Judge will be the best free agent on the market next offseason, and that would make him the best rental available at the deadline. We need to see what the standings look like come July, but you don’t have to try hard to see the Astros, Braves, Dodgers, Giants, and Mariners being in the mix. Maybe the Blue Jays and Mets too, though I’m not sure an intra-division or crosstown trade of that magnitude can happen.

Similar to 2016, when the Yankees had the two best available relievers (Chapman and Andrew Miller) and set the bullpen market, the Yankees could have the two best rental outfielders at the deadline this summer and control that market. All the teams that want Judge and miss out figure to turn their attention to Gallo, who is a flawed but productive player.

You could envision Josh Donaldson and Anthony Rizzo (both signed through 2023) as well as a bunch of relievers being available too. There’s a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy here because if these guys (the rentals too) play well enough to have significant trade value, the Yankees will probably be in the postseason race and not in selling mode. That’s why this is a hypothetical.

Do you make anyone off-limits during a trade deadline sell off? Gleyber Torres is only under team control though 2024. If you’re going to rebuild, you make him available. Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Jordan Montgomery are under control through 2023, and Jonathan Loaisiga through 2024. I don’t think there’s a single player on the MLB roster who should be off-limits at the trade deadline if the Yankees take the plunge and sell. Even Judge if he signs an extension.

Harrison asks: I understand that if Aaron Judge (or any other player) has to sit games this season because they are unvaccinated he will not receive service time, but what impact does this have on his salary? Does he still get paid for those games? Do those games count against the luxury tax for the team?

Any player who misses games due to vaccine mandates can be placed on the restricted list (it’s up to the team), and players on the restricted list are not paid and do not collect service time. The salary they are not paid also doesn’t count against the luxury tax payroll. Alex Rodriguez didn’t count against the luxury tax payroll when he was suspended in 2014*.

* That’s not 100% accurate because players serving X-game suspensions collect service time and are paid for scheduled off-days. They’re only docked for game days. A-Rod took home about $3M in salary for off-days in 2014, and that counted against the luxury tax payroll.

Now that NYC’s private employer mandate doesn’t apply to the rich and famous, unvaccinated Yankees only have to worry about the nine road games in Toronto. Let’s assume Judge loses an arbitration hearing and makes the $17M salary the Yankees filed earlier this week. That’s $91,397.85 a day during the 186-day season. Nine games would be $822,580.65 in forfeited salary and a tiny little bit of luxury tax savings for the Yankees.

Ray asks: With no signings or trades of significance, a team that isn’t appreciably better this year than last, an organization that (once again) let the best free agents go elsewhere, what’s your excitement level for the Yankees this year? For me, the team has sucked most of the joy out of the season before it’s started and I’m sitting at a 4 on the excitement scale.

Yeah, a 4 (out of 10) is about right for me too. This is definitely the least excited I’ve been going into a season since the current core emerged in 2017. We’re human and we’re emotional and reactive, and if the Yankees start strong and Isiah Kiner-Falefa really is Justin Turner 2.0 and Anthony Rizzo turns back the clock to 2014-19, then I’ll get real excited real quick. Right now, the Yankees feel very blah to me.

And me feeling blah about the Yankees does not mean I think they’ll be bad. I don’t think they’re a 99-win team like PECOTA projects, but I have the Yankees as a postseason team and they have a chance to contend for the AL East title. The Rays and Blue Jays are really good, so I’m not sure the division title is realistic, but it’s not impossible either. It just feels like the Yankees left wins on the table this offseason. They’re not as good as they could have been and it’s the kinda thing that will hang over the team all year. That saps some of the excitement for me.

Dan asks: Carlos Correa just signed a three year three deal with opt outs with the Twins.  He recently changed agents and hired Scott Boras. My understanding is that his previous agent also gets a cut of the commission because of the work they did, and that by waiting at least a year, Scott Boras will get all of the commission on any new deal that Correa signs. Did Boras really have Correa pass on a mega contract of ten years or more just so that he could get all of the commission on the next contract? Isn't that making Correa take an unnecessary risk? Is that as slimy as I think it is?

With all due respect, that Boras angle was put out there by reporters with a history of pro-owner leanings in their coverage. MLB has portrayed Boras as a villain for years and years (the owners constantly pushed the narrative that he was pulling the MLBPA’s strings during the lockout) because he’s so good at his job and costs them so much money (because they can’t help themselves). This seems like another attempt to do that.

The idea Boras had Correa take a short-term deal to line his own pockets makes no sense. If Boras put himself ahead of his client like that, he would do significant and irreversible damage to his reputation, and Boras has spent decades crafting his reputation as a guy who gets his clients top dollar. He stands to lose much more than he’d gain by manipulating a client (a top client who has been under the microscope all offseason) like that. It doesn’t pass the sniff test.

Mike asks: I saw the recent update on the new "Ohtani rule" to the universal DH, in that a pitcher can essentially pitch and still act as the DH for the whole game. But is there any clarity to the other rules around it? Is it a permanent position that you can swap players in and out of without losing it or will pitchers still have to hit if you pull your DH to play the field?

There is no other change to the DH rule. The starting pitcher can serve as the DH for himself and remain in the game as a hitter after he exits as a pitcher, and that’s it. If you move your DH to the field, you still lose the DH, and you can’t move a fielder into the DH spot. The DH spot works exactly the same as it always has with the exception of Shohei Ohtani hitting for himself. He gets special treatment (may we all be so good at our jobs that they make special rules for us).

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)