Thoughts on the 2022-26 Collective Bargaining Agreement

Never been so happy to set my eyes on Tampa. (Presswire)

At 99 days and counting, the lockout was the second longest work stoppage in baseball history, behind only the 1994-95 strike (232 days). The lockout is mercifully over and baseball is back. Players started funneling into Spring Training complexes today and the mandatory reporting date is Sunday. The new Collective Bargaining Agreement was ratified last night.

“It’s something that I’m very proud of and was very educational for me, and I think for players in general,” MLBPA executive subcommittee member Gerrit Cole told Lindsey Adler (subs. req’d). “I think everybody has learned a lot from the process and is better for it. We’re also better prepared for the next time. Obviously, some of it was ugly, and I don’t think any side is immune to having those feelings. But as we work through the issues and ultimately get to where we are today, I think there were a lot of positives to come out of it.”

In the end, the new CBA looks a lot like the old CBA, just with a few changes in numbers and a new pre-arbitration bonus pool. That was always the most likely outcome. Small changes within the current system rather than a new system entirely. The union mostly accomplished its goal of paying players more early in their careers while MLB got several new revenue streams.

To my untrained outsider eye, this looks like a CBA both sides can live with rather than celebrate, and “live with” is a step up for the MLBPA, who got raked over the coals the last few CBAs. Between the pandemic shutdown in 2020 and the lockout, it’s been three pretty rough years on the labor front. I’m looking forward to forgetting about this stuff the next five years.

The expected deluge of free agents signings and trades hasn’t happened yet – these front office nerds can find every loophole in the CBA but can’t buy a burner phone to talk business during a lockout? smh – but it will soon. The Yankees need a shortstop, probably a first baseman, a bench, and pitching depth. They have less than four weeks to get it before Opening Day.

Let’s dig through the new CBA and break down all the changes, and what they mean for the Yankees. Come with me, won’t you?

The Schedule

There will be 162 games this season. Opening Day is Thursday, April 7th, and the Yankees will be at home against the Red Sox. MLB is adding three days (i.e. one series) to the end of the regular season to make up some of the games missed during the lockout. The rest will be made up with doubleheaders and games on off-days.

The Yankees get hosed here because they have to make up four games with the Rangers and three games with the Astros, all on the road. It would make sense to use the three days at the end of the season to make up the Rangers series. That way the Yankees could go to Texas to play four games in three days. They might not even have to play all four games if the Rangers are eliminated and the Yankees are locked into a postseason spot (or eliminated themselves).

As for the Astros series, would they let the Yankees and Astros play a doubleheader in New York when the Astros visit at the end of June, and let the Astros be the “home” team at Yankee Stadium? It’s a four-game series. They could play two doubleheaders and knock out two of those three makeup games with the Astros as the “home” team to avoid giving up more off-days.

The Astros may not go for that because they’d lose lucrative home dates (the Yankees are good for ticket sales). The Yankees and Astros only have four common off-days this season, so their options to make up their three games are limited. Those off-days:

• Monday, May 9th: Middle of a homestand for Yankees, off-day for Astros between end of a homestand and a series in Minnesota.
• Thursday, June 30th: Off-day for Yankees between end of a homestand and a series in Cleveland, off-day for Astros between end of a road trip (in New York) and a homestand.
• Monday, July 11th: Off-day for Yankees between a road series in Boston and a homestand, off-day for Astros between series in Oakland and Anaheim.
• Thursday, Sept. 1st: Off-day for Yankees between road series in Anaheim and Tampa, off-day for Astros between road series in Texas and Anaheim.

Sept. 1st looks like a no-brainer. The Yankees will be traveling from Anaheim to Tampa, and the Astros will be in the area following their series with the Rangers. The Astros could hang around home for an extra day and the Yankees could make a quick stop in Houston as they travel from the West Coast to the East Coast. This one seems obvious.

June 30th looks like another good bet. The Yankees would travel from New York to Houston to Cleveland, and the Astros would be on their way home from a road trip in New York (they play the Mets after the Yankees series), so both teams have similar travel leading into their lost off-day. Makes sense, no? Three games split between June 30th and Sept. 1st sounds right.

However it happens, the Yankees have to make up those four road games against the Rangers and three road games against the Astros. That’s a pain. The other three AL East contenders (and the Orioles) all have to make up games against each other, so they have easy travel and plenty of opportunities for doubleheaders. The Yankees really drew the short straw here.

(It sounds like the Grapefruit League schedule will be revised to cut down on travel. Teams will go back into the “pods” they played in last spring, so the Yankees will face the nearby Blue Jays, Orioles, Phillies, Pirates, and Tigers only. They won’t make the long bus trips south and east. Spring games are scheduled to begin Thursday, March 17th.)

Minimum Salary

The MLBPA set out to put more money in the pockets of players earlier in their careers, and the most straightforward way to do that is a higher minimum salary. They accomplished that. The minimum salary was $570,500 in 2021. Here are the new numbers:

• 2022: $700,000
• 2023: $720,000
• 2024: $740,000
• 2025: $760,000
• 2026: $780,000

The $129,500 increase is the largest in the first year of a new CBA in history, though the 22.6% increase is only the sixth largest in the last nine CBAs. The $80,000 (11.4%) increase over the life of the CBA is the largest ever in terms of total dollars and largest by percent since the 1997-2002 CBA, when the minimum salary went from $150,000 to $200,000 (33.3%).

Last CBA the minimum salary only went up $27,500 (5.4%) in the first year. The last CBA was so, so bad for the players. The Yankees have only two pre-arbitration players (i.e. league minimum guys) who are likely to be on the Opening Day roster: Nestor Cortes and Mike King. Everyone else is in their arbitration or free agent years. The new minimum salary won’t change the club’s 2022 payroll outlook too much.

It’s also important to note the minor league minimum salary for 40-man roster players went up as well. Last season the minor league minimum was $46,600 for players in their first year on the 40-man, and $93,000 for everyone in their second year on the 40-man or later. Here are the new minor league minimum salaries:

• 2022: $57,200 and $114,100
• 2023: $58,800 and $117,400
• 2024: $60,300 and $120,600
• 2025: $62,000 and $123,900
• 2026: $63,600 and $127,100

The 22.7% increases are the same as the MLB minimum salary increase, though it hits a little different when you’re going from $46,600 to $57,200 and not $570,500 to $700,000, you know? Ron Marinaccio went from making $700 a week as a Triple-A player last year (roughly $18,000 for the season) to making $57,200 as a 40-man roster minor leaguer this year. Pretty great.

Pre-Arbitration Bonus Pool

The MLBPA did score a nice win with the pre-arbitration bonus pool, which is a brand new form of compensation. They settled on $50M each year with no raises. The money will be distributed among the top 100 pre-arb players based on awards voting and a jointly developed statistical model. Here are the awards bonuses:

• MVP and Cy Young: $2.5M for win, $1.75M for runner-up, $1.5M for third place, $1M for fourth and fifth place
• Rookie of the Year: $750,000 for win and $500,000 for second place
• All-MLB Team: $1M for first team and $500,000 for second team

Players can only receive one bonus, which is lame. Aaron Judge would have received a $1.75M bonus for his MVP runner-up in 2017, but nothing for his Rookie of the Year win and nothing from the statistical model. Also, the pre-arb bonus pool comes out of MLB’s Central Fund. The teams don’t pay for it, so there’s no incentive to manipulate playing time or whatever.

Putting part of the bonus onus on the BBWAA through awards voting isn’t great and could create animosity between players and the writers who cover them. Maybe the entire BBWAA should vote on awards rather than 30 people (two per city in each league)? Make them wait 10 years before voting like the Hall of Fame? Dunno. I don’t think this is unworkable or anything. It might just be a little awkward at times. We’ll live. No one cares about this but the BBWAA anyway.

I think just getting the pre-arb bonus pool, this brand new way to get players paid, was a win for the union, and I would’ve been willing to bend on the dollars here to get a higher minimum salary or luxury tax threshold. Just get your foot in the door. Worry about really kicking it open later. The lack of increases each year isn’t great, so that’s something the MLBPA will have to fight for in the future. The statistical model portion will be a bit thorny, otherwise good addition.

(One thing I haven't been able to find is whether the pre-arb bonus pool counts against the luxury tax payroll. $50M works out to $1.67M per team. It's not much, but it does take away from the luxury tax payroll. MLB wanted the pre-arb bonus pool to count against the luxury tax and I'm not sure whether they got it.)

Luxury Tax

Despite Hal Steinbrenner’s best efforts, the luxury tax threshold went up considerably. In fact, it’s the largest year-to-year increase ever, at any point in any CBA (not just the first year). That said, the increases still lag behind revenue growth. The first luxury tax threshold was $117M in 2003. Had it increased at the same rate as revenue, it would be roughly $297M in 2022. The Captain’s Blog has a good graph showing the luxury tax threshold (and penalty tiers) and revenue over time:

The green line (revenue) keeps going up while the blue line (luxury tax threshold) has mostly leveled off. That’s a feature for MLB, not a bug. The luxury tax threshold was $210M last season, as you know. Here are the new thresholds:

• 2022: $230M
• 2023: $232M
• 2024: $236M
• 2025: $240M
• 2026: $244M

The $14M increase from 2022 to 2026 represents 6.1% growth across five years. MLB revenue has increased roughly 8% per year since 2002, though it’s only 5% per year since 2012 because of the pandemic. The 6.1% increase is the largest ever, beating out the 5.6% increase in the 2003-06 CBA. It was a 2.2% increase last CBA and only 1.03% in the CBA before that.

Cot’s has the Yankees luxury tax payroll at $222.8M, though it hasn’t been updated to reflect the new league minimums (MLB and minors). FanGraphs has, I believe, and they have the luxury tax payroll at $227.3M. The Yankees can save a little cash by trading Luke Voit (projected $5.4M) and Miguel Andujar (projected $1.7M), but not much.

The Yankees would have to go super cheap at shortstop and everywhere else to stay under the $230M threshold this year. Realistically, it’s not possible, and once you go over the threshold, you might as well go way over the threshold. Going only $5M or so over doesn’t make sense. You’re incurring the penalty without receiving any of the benefits of staying under, so spend spend spend.

In exchange for the record luxury tax threshold increase, the union gave MLB a fourth penalty tier. Call it the Steve Cohen tax. There are new tax rates for that tier (duh), otherwise the tax rates and non-monetary penalties are unchanged from the last CBA. Here are the tax rates for each level of offender:

The non-monetary penalties include moving the team’s first round pick back 10 spots once they exceed the threshold by $40M+. You also receive worse compensation when you lose a qualified free agent and give up more picks to sign a qualifying free agent when you pay luxury tax, though the qualifying offer system is up in the air right now. More on that in a bit.

The Yankees stayed under the luxury tax threshold last year and reset their tax rates. They spent up to the $40M+ tier in 2019 and 2020 (before proration) but they haven’t been willing to push their first rounder back 10 spots. If the same is true this year, they can spend up to $270M, giving them something like $40M in spending room. That is just enough to sign Carlos Correa, so get on it, Yankees.

All things considered, the MLBPA did pretty well to get the luxury tax increase it did. They were never going to be able to push the first threshold up to, say, $260M or so, but getting a $20M increase right away seems good to me. The yearly increases still lag behind revenue growth and that’s something they’ll have to chip away at in the future. For the Yankees, they now have a little more spending room before Hal’s excuses kick in.

Expanded Postseason

The Wild Card Game is dead. Long live the Wild Card Game. I greatly enjoyed it (at least when the Yankees didn’t have to play in it). We have a 12-team postseason now. The postseason only gets bigger, it never gets smaller, and it’s growing more rapidly over time. Here’s how long we’ve had each postseason format:

• 2 teams: 65 years (1903-68)
• 4 teams: 25 years (1969-93)
• 8 teams: 17 years (1995-2011)
• 10 teams: 9 years (2012-21, not counting 2020)
• 12 teams: 5 years until we get 14 teams?

With the 12-team format, the division winners with the two best records get a bye to the LDS. The other four teams play a best-of-three Wild Card Series. The higher seed gets home field advantage for the entire Wild Card Series. The lower seed gets no home games in that first round. This would have been the 12-team bracket using the 2021 standings:

American League
BYE: Rays (100-62) and Astros (95-67)
WC1: Blue Jays (91-71) at White Sox (93-69)
WC2: Yankees (92-70) at Red Sox (92-70)

National League
BYE: Giants (107-55) and Brewers (95-67)
WC1: Reds (83-79) at Braves (88-73)
WC2: Cardinals (90-72) at Dodgers (106-56)

The MLBPA proposed a “ghost” win in the Wild Card Series, meaning the higher seed would’ve started the best-of-three with a 1-0 lead. MLB didn’t go for that, which is a bummer for AL Central teams because that’s the only way they can win in October. Jokes aside, I like the ghost win concept. It would have created extra incentive to push for a better record. Alas.

MLB also didn’t go for reseeding after the Wild Card Series. The bye team with the best record plays the winner of the Wild Card Series between two Wild Card teams no matter what (WC2 in my format above). The 107-win Giants would have faced the 106-win Dodgers in the NLDS last year, not the 88-win Braves. Why MLB opposed reseeding, I do not know.

Here’s where it gets really lame: no more Game 163 tiebreakers. All ties will be decided mathematically (head-to-head record, run differential, etc.) and that includes ties where one team will make the postseason and the other will not. There have been some kick ass Game 163s over the years, including the Bucky Dent Game. MLB got rid of Game 163s to make sure the new Wild Card Series fits into the current postseason schedule, and they don’t have to push the World Series into mid November. I get it, but blah. Game 163s ruled.

I'm hopeful one extra postseason team per league won’t drastically change the way clubs operate, meaning they still make an effort to win rather than rest on their laurels with an 86-win roster. I will miss the one-and-done Wild Card Game, that was great theater, ditto Game 163s. It’ll be a little easier for the Yankees to get to the postseason now. Hal Steinbrenner rejoices.

Service Time Manipulation

There are no meaningful measures to combat service time manipulation in the CBA, so what happened to Kris Bryant can happen to other players. I don’t know what the solution is because teams keep showing they will act in bad faith and exploit players, but there has to be some way to cut down on service time manipulation, right? Here’s what they came up with this CBA:

• Players who finish first or second in the Rookie of the Year voting receive a full year of service time as long as they rank among baseball’s top 100 prospects.
• Teams receive an additional draft pick(s) when a top 100 prospect finishes in the top three of the Rookie of the Year voting or top five of the MVP or Cy Young voting.

First of all, who decides who qualifies as a “top 100” prospect? Surely they can’t use MLB.com’s rankings. It would look pretty weird when Anthony Volpe hits .310/.430/.590 between Double-A and Triple-A this year and falls out of MLB.com’s top 100 list! Baseball America has input into the Futures Game rosters. Maybe they’ll use their rankings? I dunno.

Second, giving a full year of service time to the first and second place finishers in the Rookie of the Year voting would’ve helped only one player in the last two years (2020 NL runner-up Alec Bohm). Many first and second place finishers debut the previous year, like Aaron Judge in 2017. I think this will turn service time manipulation into Rookie of the Year voting manipulation. Adley Rutschman will be kept down long enough to ensure he doesn’t get serious Rookie of the Year consideration this season. Why would the Orioles call him up earlier? He's not gonna put them over the top or anything.

Third, do we really think giving teams a few extra draft picks will motivate them to call up their top prospects, and not keep them in the minors a little longer to get that extra year of control? Come on. Teams will take the extra year of control of the MLB ready player over an extra pick, which may not result in a prospect. I don’t think either of these measures will do much to curb service time manipulation. I hope I’m wrong.

Draft Changes

The annual amateur draft received a bit of a facelift. There is now a lottery to determine the top six picks, which is the only real attempt to curb tanking in the CBA. I don’t think the lottery will change the way teams behave even a tiny little bit. Also, postseason teams will select in reverse order of their finish. This is how the draft order will be constructed going forward:

• Picks 1-6: Lottery
• Picks 7-18: Non-postseason, non-lottery teams in reverse order of standings
• Picks 19-22: Wild Card Series losers
• Picks 23-26: LDS losers
• Picks 27-28: LCS losers
• Pick 29: World Series loser
• Pick 30: World Series winner

Within each “tier” in the No. 19-28 range, teams will be sorted by revenue sharing status and then reverse order of the standings, so teams that receive revenue sharing will select before teams that pay revenue sharing within each tier. The old reverse order of the standings draft order made things nice and simple. I’ll miss it, though this is a bit more fair.

As for the lottery, all 18 non-postseason teams will have a shot at the No. 1 pick, and the teams with the three worst records have the same odds for the No. 1 pick. You can finish with the worst record and pick as low as No. 7, as I understand it. The great Jim Callis posted the odds for the No. 1 pick (I don’t know what the odds are for picks No. 2-6):

Furthermore, teams that pay revenue sharing (like the Yankees) can not pick in the lottery in two consecutive years and teams that receive revenue sharing can not pick in the lottery in three consecutive years. Those teams will be bumped to No. 10. The Yankees have not picked in the top 10 since taking Derek Jeter at No. 6 overall in 1992. It’ll happen again at some point. I don’t know when, but it will, and when it does, we can worry about the lottery.

A few other draft tidbits. First, the draft bonus pools are going up this year. Hooray. MLB and the MLBPA agreed to hold them at 2019 levels in 2020 and 2021 as part of the pandemic March Agreement. We should get the bonus pool numbers in a few weeks*. Second, the draft is 20 rounds now. They officially chopped off rounds 30-40. This was all part of MLB’s master plan to cut costs. Undrafted free agents at $20,000 a pop are cheaper than bonuses in rounds 30-40.

* I’ve been waiting to do a draft primer post and then dive into draft prospects for a few weeks now. I’m glad we’ll have bonus pool numbers soon and I can do into that.

Third, draft and follows are back. I’m irrationally excited. Teams will now retain the rights to a drafted player who goes to junior college for one year. So they can draft a player, follow his progress in school the next spring, then try to sign him prior to the next year’s draft. Any amount over $225,000 given to a draft and follow player counts against the bonus pool, so this will take some budgeting. We have a fun new (old, really) way to follow prospects and the draft.

Fourth, MLB is expanding the Draft Combine. Last year 167 players (91 high schoolers and 76 college kids) participated in the first ever MLB Draft Combine. Lefty Brock Selvidge impressed at the combine following an up and down spring at his Arizona high school, and the Yankees gave him a $1.5M bonus as their third round pick. This year 300 players will be invited to participate.

And fifth, there is a Kumar Rocker Rule now (shouldn’t it be the Brady Aiken Rule?). Last year the Mets took Rocker with the No. 10 pick, didn’t like something in his medicals, and greatly reduced their bonus offer. He didn’t sign and will play this spring in an independent league while waiting to go back into the draft. Now the top 300 players can submit to a pre-draft physical, and any player who does must be offered at least 75% of his slot value.

Similar to the top 100 prospects for the service time manipulation rules, who decides who’s a top 300 draft prospect? Also, a pre-draft physical has more downside than upside for players. The only way it helps a player is if there are concerns about his health, and the physical shows he’s okay. Otherwise you can put just about any player (especially pitchers) in an MRI tube and find something you don’t like. And if you don’t take the physical, everyone assumes you’re hiding something. Tough spot for players.

Overall, the draft order is a little more fair now and better reflects the competitive landscape. I don’t like cutting the draft to 20 rounds, that’s a lot of kids losing out on opportunities (and bigger bonuses), and the Kumar Rocker Rule is ripe for unintended consequences. For the Yankees, their draft spot will now be tied to their postseason finish, at least until they have a disaster season and wind up in the lottery. Could be this year! Could be 2050. Who knows.

International Draft & Qualifying Offers

The international draft became a Very Big Deal earlier this week and it nearly derailed the entire CBA and 162-game season. In the end, the MLBPA did not agree to an international draft. They instead agreed to further discuss an international draft, and if there’s no agreement by July 25th, the qualifying offer system remains. If there is an agreement, qualifying offers go away.

“I'm not a fan of drafts in general,” MLBPA head Tony Clark said today. "Having said that, as a part of this agreement, we agreed to have a conversation about the possibility of an international draft, and to the extent that there's a high level of integrity and a commitment to negotiate over the parameters, then we'll have a good conversation about that. There’s no one rushing to put further restrictions on players, whether domestic or international."

MLB’s proposed international draft rules are overly complicated and I will direct you to Anthony Castrovince for the details. If the union agrees to an international draft in July, we’ll go over everything then. For now, all you need to know is the international draft would begin in 2024, so the Yankees can still sign Brandon Mayea next year. That’s good.

An international draft would be very bad for the Yankees, who would lose access to the top talent. They may not sign the top guys every year, but they can pursue them, and an international draft takes that away. 13 of my top 30 prospects originally signed with the Yankees as international free agents, including 10 of the top 14. It is how they build their farm system.

The possible new qualifying offers rules are relevant to the 2022 Yankees. MLB previously proposed a system in which teams no longer give up draft picks and international bonus money to sign free agents, and the player’s former team gets draft pick compensation based on the size of the contract. Here are the compensation tiers, which are tied to revenue sharing and luxury tax.

MLB is doing away with the supplemental first round and is throwing compensation picks in Competitive Balance Rounds A and B. This is not as favorable to the Yankees as I hoped it would be last month. Chad Green isn’t a qualifying offer candidate, but he might get a $25M deal next winter. Alas, that would bring the Yankees nothing since they pay revenue sharing.

The Yankees have seven players scheduled to hit free agency next offseason: Green, Zack Britton, Aroldis Chapman, Joey Gallo, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, and Jameson Taillon. Luis Severino would make it eight if his club option is declined. If the Yankees pay luxury tax this year, Judge and probably Gallo would bring back a draft pick, and that’s about it.

That’s the proposed compensation system, I should make clear. That’s the system that will be in place if the union accepts an international draft. If not, we revert back to the regular qualifying offer system. My two cents: I’d keep the qualifying offer system if I were the MLBPA. It only affects a few players each year. The international draft changes how roughly one-third of the player pool is acquired. There’s no going back once there’s a draft.

There’s no good outcome here for the Yankees. Either there’s an international draft that takes away their access to the top players in that market, or the qualifying offer system remains and they don’t get many additional draft picks (and have to forfeit picks and international bonus money to sign qualified free agents). The latter is the status quo and I guess that’s the best outcome. Nothing here that will really benefit them though. Sucks.

Arbitration

There are two small changes to the arbitration system. First, MLB and the MLBPA agreed 2020 stats can be extrapolated out to 162 games for arbitration purposes. Previously they were handling it on a case by case basis. That means Luke Voit’s league leading 22 homers extrapolate out to 59 (!) homers. Good for Luke. As a reward, he’ll probably get non-tendered next winter because his projected salary is too high. Rough business.

And second, arbitration contracts are now fully guaranteed. Previously teams could terminate arbitration contracts in Spring Training and pay the player either 30 days or 45 days termination pay, depending when exactly they were released. Now those contracts are locked in. It’s not often an arbitration player gets released (the Yankees did it with random Yankee Chad Gaudin in 2010), but it does happen, and now those players don’t have to worry.

The new deadline for the two sides to file salary figures is Tuesday, March 22nd. Hearings will be held during the season, which also happened in 1995. Ken Rosenthal and Jayson Stark (subs. req’d) had a good anecdote about former Orioles ace Ben McDonald going to a hearing in the morning and pitching that night. The Yankees have 13 unsigned arbitration-eligible players. The 13 and their projected salaries:

• Aaron Judge: $17.1M (third time, made $10.175M in 2021)
• Joey Gallo: $10.2M (third time, made $6.2M in 2021)
• Gary Sanchez: $7.9M (third time, made $6.35M in 2021)
• Gleyber Torres: $5.9M (second time as Super Two, made $4M in 2021)
• Luke Voit: $5.4M (second time as Super Two, made $4.7M in 2021)
• Jordan Montgomery: $4.8M (third time as Super Two, made $2.13M in 2021)
• Jameson Taillon: $4.7M (third time, made $2.25M in 2021)
• Chad Green: $4.1M (third time, made $2.15M in 2021)
• Wandy Peralta: $1.7M (third time as Super Two, made $925,000 in 2021)
• Miguel Andujar: $1.7M (first time, made $639,000 in 2021)
• Jonathan Loaisiga: $1.7M (first time, made $595,800 in 2021)
• Kyle Higashioka: $1.2M (first time as Super Two, made $594,000 in 2021)
• Clay Holmes: $1.0M (first time, made $650,000 in 2021)

The vast majority of those players will sign prior to the March 22nd filing deadline because the vast majority of players sign prior to the filing deadline every year. The Yankees haven’t gone to an arbitration hearing since Dellin Betances in 2017. This is a weird year and the crunch could send them to a hearing with someone. I think this’ll all work itself out though.

Rule 5 Draft

The Rule 5 Draft has indeed been canceled. Not forever, just this year. Many teams complained to MLB about other clubs getting more time to scout their eligible players and see who has a new slider or a swing change or whatever. To that I say: boo hoo. Take it up with the owners who shut the sport down rather than deny kids who’ve already been in the minors too long a big league opportunity.

Alas and alack, the Rule 5 Draft was canceled. Can’t let any cost effective players who bettered themselves over the winter get away after deciding they aren’t worth a 40-man roster spot! This is a shame. Not because the Rule 5 Draft is fun (it is to a point), but because a bunch of players lost out on a chance to go on the 40-man roster. Even if they don’t stick as a Rule 5 Draft pick, they still get a higher minor league salary because they were once on a 40-man.

The Yankees have had 13 players selected in the last five Rule 5 Drafts, five more than any other team. Now they don’t have to worry about losing anyone this year. Their notable Rule 5 Draft eligibles included catcher Josh Breaux, outfielder Anthony Garcia, lefty Matt Krook, and righty Jhony Brito. The Yankees haven’t made a Rule 5 Draft pick since random Yankee Cesar Cabral and Brad Meyer in 2011, and I don’t think that was changing this year.

Revenue Sharing

Early on in the lockout, the MLBPA wanted to cut $100M out of the revenue sharing pool each year. That was never going to happen. Instead, the two sides agreed to a system in which teams that increase their local revenue get a little revenue sharing boost. It’s complicated like everything else with the revenue sharing system, but that’s the gist of it. It’s a small change.

The thinking is teams that improve (through free agency, promoting top prospects, etc.) and sell more tickets and merchandise also get a little extra revenue sharing as well, as a treat. I’m not sure this will change how teams behave much (I’d rather take revenue sharing money away from teams that are bad and stay bad for an extended period), but it’s better than nothing, I guess.

(Also, the Athletics are being phased back in as a revenue sharing recipient. They were phased out in the last CBA and it had something to do with their efforts to get a new ballpark. I didn’t fully understand it. All this does is move some money around, but it’s happening.)

Options Limit

We can’t call this the Albert Abreu Rule because lots of guys went up and down 10+ times last year, but we can most closely relate to Abreu. Players can only be optioned down five times in a single season (they still get three option years). This is a meaningful quality of life improvement for guys who ride the shuttle. Living out of a suitcase sucks, even as a high level baseball player.

This rule won’t eliminate bullpen shuttles, but it will cut down on them a bit. I think we’re going to see more players hit waivers – when a fringe roster guy like Abreu burns through his five options, he might just get designated for assignment rather than kept on the MLB roster – and more guys get MLB chances in general. If you only need a long reliever for a day or two, do you burn one of, say, Clarke Schmidt’s options, or bring up a spare part arm like Brody Koerner? Either way, good rule. Going up and down so many times a year can’t be fun or easy.

Rule Changes

MLB now has the ability to unilaterally implement rule changes with 45 days notice. It was a full year under the old CBA. There are two catches. One, the entire process has to take place in the offseason. They can’t implement new rules in the middle of the season. The proposal has to be made early in the offseason and the rule changes must be made official before Spring Training.

And two, there is a new joint Rules Committee to work on rule change proposals. The 11-person committee will include four active players, one umpire, and six MLB appointees. So while the committee has to approve rule change proposals, MLB has its thumb on the scale and Rob Manfred can jam through any rule changes he wants. Speaking of, this is all on the table:

• Pitch clock (14 seconds with the bases empty, 19 seconds with men on)
• Larger bases (18 inches by 18 inches rather than 15 inches by 15 inches)
• Some sort of ban on shifts
• Automatic strike zone

The first three are on the table for 2023 and the automatic strike zone is a little further down the road. It’s not a given we get the first three next year (the committee could reject them), but yeah, we’re going to get them. I’m still on the fence about the automatic strike zone. I think it still needs work. Everything else is a-okay with me. For 2022, we’re getting a universal DH (yay!), no more seven-inning doubleheader games (good), and no more automatic runner in extra innings (boo, hiss).

Uniform Patches

Uniform advertisement patches are now a thing. Specifically, ads will be placed on batting helmets and jersey sleeves (I think it's the sleeve, but I guess it could be the chest), like the Yankees (and Red Sox) wore during the London Series:

Teams will sell ads individually (they aren’t part of a larger league-wide ad campaign) and the players don’t get a cut. This is all revenue for teams. I know some people will hate the ad patches, but I’m fine with them. They’ll blend into the background before long and you won’t even notice them. I’m pro-player, but MLB is a for-profit business, so go get that money.

The Lakers recently signed a five-year jersey ad patch deal worth $100M. Imagine what the Yankees can get? They play twice as many games as the Lakers and baseball players are more stationary on the field of play, theoretically making it easier to show them on camera. That last part might not matter much at all, but the first part does. The Yankees are going to cash in big on uniform ad patches. Whether they pump that money into the roster remains to be seen.

Schedule changes

A more balanced schedule is coming. Starting in 2023, teams will play fewer intradivision games and at least one series against every other team, including teams in the other league. The exact format is still being determined, but the rotating interleague schedule is going away. No more waiting every three years for Yankees-Dodgers or Yankees-Cubs or whatever.

I am strongly in favor of a balanced schedule and this is a step in that direction. And no matter how you feel about interleague play, it’s not going away. It’s too powerful a marketing tool. Now fans in, say, Colorado won’t have to wait three (or six!) years to see Shohei Ohtani, Gerrit Cole gets to pitch against the Dodgers more often, etc. Good rule change. Thumbs up from me.

Miscellany

Canada’s border is still closed to unvaccinated visitors (they didn’t make an exemption for the NHL, so definitely won’t for MLB) and the CBA says players who can not play in Toronto due to the vaccine mandate will be placed on the restricted list, and not be paid or receive service time for the missed games. Totally cool with it. During the COVID outbreaks last season we learned there are a few unvaccinated Yankees. Hopefully they got vaccinated over the winter, otherwise they’re going to miss three road series against a division rival … MLB has committed to playing games in Asia, the Dominican Republic, London, Mexico, Paris, and Puerto Rico over the next five years. Paris! Gotta send DJ LeMahieu to Paris, right? They should make the players wear berets instead of caps. MLB has been to Japan a bunch of times, so hopefully “Asia” means South Korea or Taiwan. I love games in different places. I hope the Yankees are involved in a few of these … The World Baseball Classic is currently “undefined” and MLB and the MLBPA will discuss it separately. The 2021 WBC was canceled because of the pandemic, and MLB said it will be played no earlier than 2023. Hopefully it comes back next year. The WBC is a blast … Players can sign endorsement deals with sportsbooks now. I mentioned this as a possibility a few weeks ago. There are strict rules (players can not be shown betting, etc.), but they can go get that bag now. How long until we see Aaron Judge in a DraftKings commercial? I'll set the over/under at the third inning of Opening Day … The 13-pitcher/13-position player roster split is finally here. That begins this season. It was supposed to start in 2020, but MLB put it on hold because of the pandemic. There were a few days last year when the Yankees carried 14 pitchers, but not often. They went with 13 and 13 most of the year, so it won’t be a noticeable difference … And finally, nothing is set in stone yet, but it’s possible teams will begin the season with expanded rosters following the truncated Spring Training. Teams were given three extra roster spots for the first three weeks following the strike in 1995, and two years ago they were supposed to have 30-man rosters for two weeks and 28-man rosters for two weeks before cutting down to 26-man rosters (they ultimately stuck with 28 all year). As I understand it, they’re going to see how Spring Training goes and how well pitchers are built up before deciding whether to start the season with extra roster spots. MLB has the final say but the union has input. We’ll see.

Looking Ahead To 2026

It’s difficult to evaluate the CBA right now (we gotta see what happens when teams comb through the fine print and find loopholes over the next several weeks and years), but looking ahead to next CBA come the 2026-27 offseason, these figure to be the major items, in no particular order:

• 14-team postseason: MLB wants it and the MLBPA did not give it up this CBA, so they will be able to use it as a chip for five years down the line.
• Service time manipulation: I think we’re going to see the measures in this CBA are toothless, and something more needs to be done to stop service time manipulation.
• Salary floor: There’s still nothing in the CBA forcing the Pirates, Marlins, et al to raise payroll. I think the union will really push for some kinda luxury tax “floor” in five years.
• Anti-tanking measures: This is tied to a possible salary floor, and similar to service time manipulation, and I think we’ll see the draft lottery does nothing to stop tanking.
• International draft: If MLB doesn’t get it this July, they’ll want it in 2026. And if they do get it in July, they’ll want to shorten it in 2026 to cut costs like the domestic amateur draft.
• Standard stuff: Higher luxury tax thresholds and minimum salary, earlier arbitration and free agency, etc. The stuff we see every CBA negotiation.

Another thing to keep in mind: expansion. The Athletics should have a new ballpark come 2026 (their lease at Oakland Coliseum expires after 2024) and the Rays should be down the road with their next ballpark (their lease at Tropicana Field expires after 2027). Once the A’s and Rays are situated, it will be time to discuss a 31st and 32nd team. It’s overdue.

More than anything, I’m glad the lockout is over. I’m glad players will get paid more early in their careers and I like some (not all) of the rule changes and draft tweaks. Now we can focus on baseball on the field. This labor stuff is for the birds.