February 18th, 2022: Spring Storylines, Prospects To Know, Mailbag

Lockout, Day 79: I had a dream the other night that Rob Manfred resigned because he lied about someone’s vaccination status, which is a sure sign I’m over the lockout and the pandemic. I mean, I’ve been over them for a while, but now my brain is reminding me of that even when I’m asleep. I just want baseball back. Anyway, let’s get to today’s post.

1. Alternate universe Spring Training storylines. Spring Training was supposed to open this week. The Yankees (and several other teams) never bothered to announce their reporting dates, though in recent years they’ve had their pitchers and catchers report about 10 days before the first Grapefruit League game, which would have been Wednesday. So much for that.

At some point MLB and the MLBPA will reach a deal, then we’ll get a rushed and not at all normal Spring Training. We won’t get the usual slow-playing of camp. Pitchers and catchers report, then position players show up, then there are a few days of everyone being in the best shape of their life, then the games begin, etc. That ain’t happening this spring.

There’s going to be a lot to do whenever the lockout ends and not much time to talk about it, which means the usual Spring Training storylines might fall by the wayside. So, let’s take a trip to an alternate lockout-free universe, in which the offseason is over and the Yankees are in camp showing off their new players, and looking forward to 2022. Let’s dive in.

The new shortstop

Who will it be? I have no idea, but the Yankees can’t say they lacked options this offseason. This was the greatest free agent shortstop class in history based on projected future WAR, so if the Yankees wind up unhappy with their shortstop situation this year, they will have no one to blame but themselves. The players are out there. They just have to go get one.

We don’t know who the Yankees will get to play shortstop, but the new shortstop will be a big (the No. 1?) storyline in camp no matter who it is, so let’s build a storyline for all the available options. Let’s start with the big name free agents.

Javy Baez: Hmmm, not sure what the storyline would have been with Baez. Does another high strikeout righty hurt the lineup more than it helps? Can the Yankees help him be more consistent at the plate? What was up with that thumbs down thing last year? Baez is a polarizing player and a risky one, though he’s also insanely fun. The primary talking points would have been about the early returns (i.e. how he does in Spring Training, how he meshes with teammates, etc.) on that big contract for such a risky player.

Carlos Correa: This one’s easy: do your new teammates hate you? Why’d you cheat? There are basically zero questions about Correa on the field. This isn’t a “can Troy Tulowitzki field a ground ball without crumbling into dust?” situation. Correa was involved in the biggest cheating scandal since the Steroid Era, a cheating scandal that directly hurt the Yankees, and prompted the Yankees to speak out about it. So, why’d you do it and how are you fitting in? Those are Day 1 questions. Day 1, 2, 3, and on questions.

Corey Seager: Seager was the “safest” big name shortstop target for the Yankees because he’s proven himself in a big market and in the postseason, he’s in his prime, and he’s a high contact lefty bat who would have fit the lineup well. That’s a lot of important questions already answered. The story would have been Seager’s defense and how long he’ll actually remain at shortstop. His glove has declined enough the last few years that he might be a third baseman in a year or two, so did the Yankees just give $300M+ to a shortstop who isn’t really a shortstop? Every ground ball would be scrutinized.

Marcus Semien: I think the “can he repeat 2021?” question would be a bigger storyline than the “can he handle the transition back to shortstop?” question, though they're both important. I don’t think anyone realistically expects Semien to hit 45 homers again, but are the Yankees getting the 2019 and 2021 version, or the league average-ish guy Semien has been every other year in his career? Moving Semien back to short wouldn’t be a slam dunk given his age, though I think he could handle it.

Trevor Story: With Story, it would have been all about the defense, specifically his throwing arm, which went in the tank last year (and started to go in the tank in 2020). As an ex-Rockie, there will be attention paid to his bat outside Coors Field, though Spring Training won’t reveal much about his offense, but one shot put throw that short hops the first baseman? It would be A Thing. Story could make 49 clean throws, but if No. 50 is in the dirt, the questions will surface. Don’t blame me. I’m just telling you how these things work.

Correa and Story are the only top shortstop free agents still available, and barring a sudden change of heart, the Yankees probably aren’t signing either. Maybe I’m wrong. I hope I am. But if I’m not, it means a stopgap shortstop, and that creates two Spring Training storylines.

Why is this the right player at short? Regardless of whether it’s Andrelton Simmons or Isiah Kiner-Falefa or Paul DeJong or someone else entirely, the Yankees will have made the decision to pass on several great shortstops, and go with a shortstop well south of great. They should have to explain why they did that, and why the shortstop they acquired is the right player. And, through no fault of his own, that shortstop will be asked why the Yankees were right to bring him in rather than go with a top shortstop. He’ll be under the microscope because of who he isn’t, not because of who he is.

Are Peraza and Volpe the real deal? This is the big one. The Yankees passed up the best free agent class in a long time (maybe ever), supposedly because they believe so much in Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza, their top two shortstop prospects. So let’s see what the kids are about then. Peraza would be in big league camp as a 40-man roster player and I have to think Volpe would be in camp as a non-roster player. Top prospects always get a lot of attention in camp, and Volpe and Peraza figure to get more attention than any Yankees prospect in camp since who, Gleyber Torres in 2017? That’s probably right, though I wouldn’t argue if you said Jesus Montero in 2010.

* An impressive spring for Peraza would almost certainly lead to “he should be the Opening Day shortstop!” discussion even though Spring Training performance is meaningless. I don’t think we would hear that quite as much with Volpe because he’s yet to play above High-A.

A potential Judge extension

February and March are usually when long-term extensions get done. Teams spend the winter months focusing on free agency and trades, then once Spring Training begins, they work on keeping their own players. Aaron Judge is now a year away from free agency and extension talks will hang over him and the Yankees all season. It’ll be a constant question.

“That’s a loaded question,” Judge said when asked about an extension on CC Sabathia’s podcast earlier this week. “You know, leading into this, especially coming up through the minor leagues and rookie ball, you want to be a free agent, test the market a little bit, and see what’s out there. But that’s one thing. I’ve been lucky enough to play in the best organization out of all of them, so who wants to go anywhere else? If we get an extension done before the season starts, that’d be great. I’d be completely honored to wear pinstripes for a couple more years. But if it doesn’t happen and this is my last year (with the Yankees), I had a lot of great memories.”

In their post-lockout preview, Jayson Stark and Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d) wrote Judge was the “runaway winner of our informal Most Likely to Sign an Extension in a Short Spring poll (of agents and team executives),” and the reasoning seems to be Judge wants to stay and the Yankees want to keep him. Nice idea, though rarely is it that simple. Both sides may want to get a deal done, but I doubt Judge will take a discount and I doubt the Yankees will give him a blank check. Robbie Cano wanted to stay too, remember.

To date Judge has made over $22M between his MLB salaries and draft signing bonus, and he’s projected to make $17.1M in 2022. Also, Judge has more endorsement deals than any player in baseball. I have no idea what those endorsements are worth, though I’d bet on them adding up to seven figures a year. By the end of 2022 his career earnings will probably be in the $50M range, maybe higher, so Judge already has financial security. He doesn’t have to rush into an extension.

The Yankees will have so much to do and not much time to do after the lockout that a Judge extension could get put on the back burner. They have all year to discuss that but only so much time to add a shortstop, get more pitching, etc. In a normal spring, a Judge extension – or the lack of a Judge extension – would have been a major big topic.

Guys coming back from injuries

A standard Spring Training storyline. Aaron Hicks (wrist), DJ LeMahieu (hernia), and Jameson Taillon (ankle) are all coming off surgery, and Luke Voit is coming back from a knee issue that hampered him most of the season but did not require another surgery in the offseason. Then there’s Luis Severino in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery.

Those are pretty significant injuries and pretty significant players too. That’s the starting center fielder, the starting second (or third?) baseman, and two of the five starting pitchers. A few of the individual storylines we would have heard in a normal Spring Training:

Aaron Hicks: The Yankees could bring in a safety net in center field, though the free agent market is barren and trade options aren’t great, which leads me to believe the safety net’s name would start with B and end with rett Gardner. When Hicks is healthy, he’s pretty damn good. He’s hit .242/.357/.446 (119 wRC+) since his 2017 breakout. He just isn’t healthy enough. A healthy Hicks can be a lineup changer (especially as a switch-hitter in a righty heavy lineup), so the questions are a) is he healthy?, and b) what will the Yankees do to keep him healthy? They kept Judge and Giancarlo Stanton on the field last year. Maybe they can do the same with Hicks this year.

DJ LeMahieu: I’m not sold on the hernia being the root cause of LeMahieu’s down year – he was pretty mediocre early on and I have a hard time believing he played the entire season with a hernia (those things hurt!) – but I am open to the possibility, and Spring Training will be our first opportunity to see LeMahieu post-surgery. Is he moving better in the field (I thought he was noticeably hobbled late last year)? Is he driving the ball again? Also, where’s he going to play? That last part is a “problem” more than a problem. At-bats always have a way of opening up.

Jameson Taillon: We know Taillon is about a month behind his usual offseason schedule, so he wouldn’t get much attention in camp. Is he healthy and going through his rehab work and bullpen sessions? If yes, good, and that’s about it. If not, then it’s a big deal (if anyone even notices). Otherwise these rehabbing guys who won’t be ready for Opening Day have a way of getting lost in the shuffle in camp. Everyone understandably focuses on the healthy players on the field.

Luis Severino: Unless the Yankees do something huge like sign Correa or Freddie Freeman, or make a blockbuster trade (Matt Olson?), Severino’s status will be the No. 1 storyline in camp for me. He returned from Tommy John surgery as a reliever late last year and was great in limited action, and now he’s moving back into the rotation. Severino has barely pitched the last three years. Can he still dominate as a starter? Can he stay healthy? The difference between Good & Healthy Severino and his replacement if he gets hurt again would be substantial. Enough to swing a division race, I’d say.

Luke Voit: Lockout or no lockout, Voit went into the offseason far from guaranteed to be with the Yankees in Spring Training. He could still get traded before camp. At this very moment though, he is the starting first baseman, and Voit’s been really good the last few years! Even last season he had a 111 wRC+ around the knee issues. Voit being over the knee issues in camp would improve his outlook going into the regular season, and also boost his trade value some.

How will Gallo fare in Year 2?

The Joey Gallo concerns are overblown, I think. He’s a .200 hitter who hit .160 for two months as a Yankee, and the difference between .160 and .200 is eight hits, or one a week. Yet there‘s this prevailing narrative that Gallo isn’t comfortable in New York, which may be true for all I know, but it also seems like the kinda thing that wouldn’t be said with that one extra hit a week.

Either way, Gallo would be (and will be) a primary storyline in Spring Training because he is the Yankees’ big addition on offense. It just so happens he joined the team at the trade deadline last year rather than over the winter. A full season of Gallo is pretty clearly something the club is counting on to boost an offense that was tenth in the American League in runs scored in 2021.

Gallo’s a veteran at this point and he knows what he has to do in camp to prepare for the regular season, but if goes out and hits something like .125 during Grapefruit League play, forget it, it’ll be a Very Big Story. It’s a no-win situation. Gallo does well in camp and who cares? It’s only Spring Training. Gallo does poorly in camp and uh oh, should the Yankees be worried???

What will the bench look like?

What does the bench look like right now? When I laid out the roster at the outset of the lockout, the bench was Miguel Andujar, Oswaldo Cabrera, Estevan Florial, and Kyle Higashioka. That … probably isn’t happening. I hope not, anyway. Squint your eyes and you can see real upside with that bench, but also a ton of “what the hell were they thinking???” downside risk.

Since then the Yankees have brought in Jose Peraza and Ender Inciarte on minor league deals. They would push Cabrera and Florial to Triple-A, which is where they should be at this point in their development. Adding a shortstop would push one of LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres, or Gio Urshela (or the shortstop) to the bench on any given day, so no need for Peraza. Re-signing Gardner would make Inciarte unnecessary.

“What will the bench look like?” is more of an offseason storyline than a Spring Training storyline. Who the Yankees bring in will help shape the bench, and really, the bench evolves during the season. The four bench guys you break camp with are rarely the four bench guys you finish the season with. Still, the bench is important, and right now it’s completely up in the air aside from Higashioka as the backup catcher.

* * *

Other notable Spring Training storylines would include Gleyber’s bounce back potential, Gerrit Cole’s post-foreign substance crackdown adjustments, and the new first baseman (if there is a new first baseman). Then you’ve got the prospects – would Jasson Dominguez get a non-roster invitee? the Yankees pushed to get him into the Futures Game and seem to want to showcase him any chance they get – and the random out of nowhere non-roster guys who force their way into relevance.

Spring Training was supposed to start this week. This was supposed to be the most fun time of the year. Everyone shows up to camp, we watch as many grainy workout videos as we can find, then exhibition games begin and baseball returns (and then we quickly get sick of spring games and await the regular season). Instead, we’re sitting through this lockout, which will change the Spring Training storylines. Everything’s going to be rushed now.

2. Five prospects worth knowing. Last week I posted my annual Top 30 Prospects List, which was preceded by my Not Top 30 Prospects and followed by the Off the Top 30 Prospects. I’m in the prospect-writing mood these days (MLB sure isn’t giving me anything to write about) and I have five more names I want to highlight before the 2022 season.

A few weeks back I wrote about lefty Matt Krook and infielder Andres Chaparro, who fit into the same “not a top 30 consideration but interesting enough” bucket as the five players in this post. These aren’t potential top prospects (probably) or immediate call up options or anything. They’re just five players I felt like writing about, so I will.

OF Daury Arias

Date of Birth: Aug. 7th, 2001 (age 20)
Acquired: Signed Dec. 2019 out of Dominican Republic (bonus unknown)
2021 Stats: .287/.416/.486 (152 wRC+), 8 HR, 17.1 BB%, 13.5 K% (222 PA in DSL)
Projected 2022 Level: Rookie

Arias signed just in the nick of time. He got his bonus (whatever it was) a few weeks before the pandemic turned the world upside down. That’s a lot better than waiting a few extra weeks to sign, then having the pandemic put everything on hold, and waiting until 2021 to get paid. Losing games to a pandemic is bad. Waiting to get paid is worse.

Anyway, Arias is an interesting dude. He’s a lefty hitter and listed at 5-foot-10 and 172 lbs., and he’s wiry strong and supposedly posted pretty high exit velocities last summer. There’s some weirdness in his mechanics – Arias briefly turns his heel to the pitcher during his leg kick a la B.J. Upton (video) – but it works for him, and he gets the bat on the ball frequently.

Arias is a sound defender in center with a well-rounded skill set overall. He’s not a tools freak like Jasson Dominguez or even Ryder Green, but it works, and he’s a heady player who knows what he’s doing on the field. I don’t know if there’s universal love for Arias in the organization, but I know he has a few fans and will be a priority guy in the Florida Complex League this year.

2B Cooper Bowman

Date of Birth: Jan. 25th, 2000 (age 22)
Acquired: 2021 fourth round, No. 122 overall ($353,000 bonus)
2021 Stats: .255/.355/.480 (124 wRC+), 4 HR, 9.1 BB%, 24.8 K% (121 PA at Rk, A-)
Projected 2022 Level: Low-A and maybe High-A

Bowman wasn’t really a consideration for the top 30, he was more like a consideration to be a consideration, and he has Brandon Lockridge potential. Lockridge is another mid-round pick (fifth round in 2018) who has a ton of speed and keeps performing, and is often mentioned as an extra outfielder type who might stick as someone’s 26th man as a Rule 5 Draft pick this year.

Bowman is a second baseman, though there’s some thought his speed would be best used in center field. He’s outrageously fast – stolen bases don’t always tell you about a player’s speed but Bowman went 33-for-38 (87%) stealing bases between college and pro ball last year, and that’s about right – and his Statcast data with Low-A Tampa is neat:

• Swinging strike rate: 6.9% (fifth lowest in the league, min. 100 PA)
• Average exit velocity: 89.2 mph (higher than Austin Wells at 88.0 mph)
• Max exit velocity: 108.0 mph (almost identical to Anthony Volpe at 108.3 mph)

It’s a tiny sample (112 plate appearances), but swinging strike rate stabilizes very quickly, and I would’ve taken the way under on that max exit velocity. I didn’t think Bowman had 108 mph in him given the pre-draft scouting reports. Eric Longenhagen recently wrote “Bowman’s swing is super short back to the baseball” and you can see it here. He slashes at the ball.

A guy who doesn’t swing and miss much, has demonstrated the ability to hit the ball 108 mph* at least once in his life, and has top of the line speed is going on my follow list. Bowman’s defense at second is said to be fine, but if the Yankees put him in the outfield (not a bad idea given all the middle infield prospects in the system) and he takes to it, they could really have something.

* MLB batters hit .710 with a 1.637 SLG on batted balls in the 107-109 mph exit velocity range last year. On fly balls and line drives in that range it was .845 and 2.242, respectively. I know we’re oversaturated with exit velocity, but it matters. A lot.

RHP Jhony Brito

Date of Birth: Feb. 17th, 1998 (age 24)
Acquired: Signed Nov. 2015 out of Dominican Republic (bonus unknown)
2021 Stats: 3.35 ERA (3.50 FIP), 24.1 K%, 4.3 BB%, 0.77 HR/9 (116.2 IP at A+, AA)
Projected 2022 Level: Double-A and Triple-A

The Yankees have two types of pitchers in their farm system: guys who throw 100 mph and walk like 13% of the batters they face, and Brito. I’m exaggerating obviously, but in a system loaded with power arms who walk a ton of guys, Brito is a control artist who doesn’t light up the radar gun, at least according to today’s standards (it’s not like he’s out there slinging 86-88 mph).

Brito missed most of 2017 and all of 2018 with Tommy John surgery, though he still managed to rack up 217.1 innings from 2019-21, even while spending the pandemic season at home. Seems to me the new elbow ligament is holding up just fine. J.J. Cooper and Geoff Pontes (subs. req’d) included Brito in their Rule 5 Draft preview earlier this offseason. Here’s their scouting report:

Two characteristics that teams value in relievers are the ability to drive ground balls and a secondary pitch that finds success versus batters of both handedness. Brito is another Yankees arm with the potential to be selected in this Rule 5 draft who possesses both of these skills. Another pitcher identified by analysts, Brito’s plus changeup has unique qualities movement-wise that make him intriguing to certain teams. As a heavy pronator Brito kills lift or ride on his changeup at a plus level, resulting in heavy armside run and late tumble. He has two variations of his fastball, but mostly works off of his two-seam, a low-to-mid-90s offering with true sink and armside run. He blends in a low-80s slider with some depth and moderate sweep. His sequencing is interesting, as his changeup accounts for over 40% of his pitch usage, with his slider and sinker seeing nearly equal usage. The practice of “pitching backwards” accentuates Brito’s strengths and limits the exposure to his fastball(s) that tend to be hit fairly hard with regularity.

It can be tough to get by with “fastball(s) that tend to be hit fairly hard with regularity.” You need at least one knockout secondary pitch in that case, preferably two, which is how Masahiro Tanaka made it work all those years. Brito is said to have a great changeup (old video). Maybe it’s enough to hold down a long man spot? Or be a short reliever who spams hitters with changeups?

In recent years the Yankees have had several non-top 30 pitchers with a single interesting pitch selected in the Rule 5 Draft (Rony Garcia’s cutter/slider hybrid, Nick Green’s cut-sinker, Anyelo Gomez’s changeup, etc.), and Brito’s changeup could be next. Almost all of those guys have been returned (Garcia wasn’t) and maybe Brito will too. He strikes me as prime Rule 5 Draft fodder for a pitching deficient team with room in the bullpen (Orioles, Rockies, etc.).

RHP Richard Fitts

Date of Birth: Dec. 17th, 1999 (age 22)
Acquired: 2021 sixth round, No. 183 overall ($346,800 bonus)
2021 Stats: Did not pitch after signing
Projected 2022 Level: Low-A and High-A

The most recent public scouting reports on Fitts all start the same way:

• Keith Law (subs. req’d) (Feb. 15th, 2022): “a potential first-rounder in February”
• Eric Longenhagen (July 14th, 2021): “entered the year with a chance to land in the first-round”
• Baseball America (subs. req’d) (pre-draft): “Coming out of fall ball, Fitts looked like a first-round pick”

Fitts then had an up-and-down spring around a foot injury, and inconsistency was the story of his career at Auburn. He showed tremendous stuff (up to 97 mph with a nasty split-change, video) but the results did not match. Fitts allowed 125 hits and 20 homers (!) in 117 innings in college, and he only struck out 104 (20.6%). The numbers don’t stand out at all.

In a way, Fitts is an old school draft pick as a guy with great stuff and poor results, and the team tries to get the latter to match the former. Nowadays it’s all about finding guys with smarts and athleticism, and improving their stuff through analytics and coaching. Fitts is a throwback to the “well, let’s take a shot on his arm and hope it all works out” days.

Now that we’re in the build-a-pitcher era, perhaps lottery ticket arms like Fitts are undervalued. If you can take his already good stuff and make it even better, could that solve the poor results thing? I don’t know, but there are worse shots to take in the sixth round. Fitts could become a Dude in 2022.

1B TJ Rumfield

Date of Birth: May 17th, 2000 (age 21)
Acquired: Donny Sands and Nick Nelson trade with Phillies (Nov. 19th, 2021)
2021 Stats: .250/.426/.263 (114 wRC+), 0 HR, 20.8 BB%, 10.9 K% (101 PA in A-)
Projected 2022 Level: Low-A and High-A

Why am I writing about the Phillies’ 12th round pick in last year’s draft? The Yankees drafted Ben Rice in the 12th round and he out-hit Rumfield in their pro debuts (.709 OPS vs. .689 OPS). Why am I not writing about Rice? I guess it’s because the Yankees got Rumfield in the Sands trade and I like Sands as a near MLB ready catcher with power, and I’m trying to figure out why.

Rumfield is a big dude (6-foot-5 and 225 lbs.) and a lefty hitter who, despite slugging .263 in over 100 plate appearances in Low-A last year, is said to have posted strong exit velocities in the new MLB Draft League last year (video). Eric Longenhagen recently called him a “tip of the iceberg" sleeper prospect with "no-doubt big-league physicality and power.” That’s something.

It could be that Rumfield is just another Chris Gittens/Mike Ford Quad-A masher type (Gittens was a 12th round pick too, coincidentally). The kinda hitter who can put a mistake in the seats when the top two guys on your first base depth chart get hurt and you need someone to fill in for two weeks. Maybe the Yankees can do with Rumfield what they did with Oswaldo Cabrera, Hoy Jun Park, and others last year. Would be cool.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. According to Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d), the MLBPA has proposed cutting one year off the Rule 5 Draft eligibility waiting period. That would get players into 40-man roster consideration one year earlier, and potentially get them to the big leagues (and into arbitration, free agency, etc.) earlier. The current waiting period is four years for college draftees and five years for high schoolers and international signees, generally speaking. The union wants to cut that to three years and four years, respectively. This used to be the rule! They added an extra year to the waiting period in 2006. Under the MLBPA's proposal, guys like Hayden Wesneski and Ken Waldichuk would be Rule 5 Draft eligible this winter, so you can see how it would change the 40-man roster calculus. Adding the extra year in 2006 took a lot of excitement out of the Rule 5 Draft because the nature of the sport is most players won’t make it, and even just one extra year is enough time for the best to separate themselves from the rest. I’m generally in favor of the proposal, though I’d like to see something done to help international players. Deivi Garcia is going to run out of minor league options at age 23 and Clarke Schmidt didn’t even have to be put on the 40-man roster until age 24. International prospects sign so young – Schmidt’s career path was not available to Garcia – and have so much more development to do than even high school draftees, yet they’re held to the same Rule 5 Draft eligibility criteria. Maybe three years for college draftees, four years for high schoolers, and five years for international signees is the way to go? Or even two years for college guys? … And finally I’m not sure how many of you followed the Tyler Skaggs trial, but earlier this week former Angels communications director Eric Kay was found guilty of providing the pills that killed Skaggs. He faces a minimum of 20 years in federal prison. Several current MLB players (C.J. Cron, Matt Harvey, and others) testified they took opioids while with the Angels – “Guys are constantly doing what they can to stay on the field,” Harvey said – and now we’ll see how MLB responds to a potential league-wide problem. Based on history they will either ignore it entirely, or dump the blame on Kay and consider it case closed. MLB's thing is blaming one or two people and saying there's nothing to worry about, we got rid of the bad apples (like suspending A.J. Hinch and Jeff Luhnow for the Astros sign-stealing scandal). I don’t know what the solution is or what the correct next steps should be, but I do know they’re not “do nothing.” You've got players in court testifying about this. I don't think the league can look the other way.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Bob asks: What do you think about an Austin Meadows for Luke Voit trade? Let Gallo play some CF and rotate all of the outfielders at DH.

Now that’s a fun idea. It (probably) won’t happen because of the whole AL East rivals thing, but it fills a need for each team, and each team would deal from an area of depth. Well, I wouldn’t say the Yankees are deep at first base. They might (probably will?) bring in a new first baseman after the lockout though, making Voit expendable.

Meadows and Voit are similar in that they are bat-first guys with a history of injury problems who fit best at DH. Meadows is a better outfielder than Voit is a first baseman, though he’s not winning any Gold Gloves out there. The offensive rate stats are similar too:

As Bob said, the Yankees could put Joey Gallo in center field for one year, leaving Meadows to share the corner spots and DH with Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. Ji-Man Choi has had injury problems over the years and he needs a righty platoon partner anyway, and Voit would be able to get at-bats at DH too. Tampa is loaded with outfielders but short at first base.

(Meadows needs a platoon partner too. He’s hit .269/.356/.543 (142 wRC+) against righties and .228/.285/.385 (83 wRC+) against lefties the last three years. Maybe that’s where Miguel Andujar fits? Meadows in left with Stanton at DH against righties, and Stanton in left with Andujar at DH against lefties? I dunno.)

Meadows and Voit each have three years of arbitration remaining and the money can be figured out. Voit has a higher projected arbitration salary ($5.4M vs. $4.3M) because he’s a Super Two. The Rays manipulated Meadows’ service time in such a way that he avoided Super Two, so he’s going through arbitration for the first time this offseason. Voit’s doing it for the second time.

The Rays are said to be open to moving Meadows and he’s starting to make good money, which is when Tampa usually trades their guys. Also, Meadows has been on the trade block for about three years now. There were rumblings they were trying to flip him as far back as 2019. Would they trade him to the Yankees? Eh, I can’t see it, but who really knows?

The biggest difference between Voit and Meadows is not their position or handedness. It’s their age. Meadows turns only 27 in May. Voit turned 31 earlier this week. You can reasonably expect Meadows to hold his current performance another few years, and maybe even get better. Voit may have already had his best years, and is a more immediate decline risk.

Given his position and salary, a declining Voit becomes a non-tender candidate real quick. Yeah, he has three years of team control remaining, but how likely is it his team uses all three? I think it’s much less likely than Meadows using his three remaining team control years. Meadows is a better bet to remain productive and not play his way into non-tender status.

That’s a significant difference, so the Yankees would have to kick in a sweetener to make the trade worthwhile for the Rays. Maybe even a really good sweetener. The Trade Values site says:

I’d do that in a cocaine heartbeat. The Yankees get a lefty power bat for another few seasons at a time when the corner outfield picture beyond 2022 is unsettled, and give up a first baseman they seem ready to move and a pitching prospect who can’t stay healthy.  It’s a “too good to be true” trade proposal, right? There’s no way the Yankees could say no to that.

I don’t think a significant Yankees-Rays trade is impossible, just improbable. Meadows is going to move at some point and he’s one of those “everyone thinks he’s better than he really is” Rays players. Voit plus a sweetener for Meadows seems workable in a vacuum. In the context of two AL East rivals getting together to make a big trade trade, eh, I wouldn’t hold my breath.

Bonny asks: What is Gleyber Torres' carrying tool?

It was expected to be his hitting ability. Torres peaked as a prospect going into 2018 and here are MLB.com’s 20-80 scouting scale grades at the time (20 is terrible, 50 is average, 80 is great):

• Hit: 70
• Power: 55
• Run: 50
• Arm: 60
• Field: 55

No player in MLB.com’s current top 100 prospects list has a 70 hit tool and only two have a 65 (Twins infielder Austin Martin and Guardians infielder Tyler Freeman). The only prospects to get a 70 or better hit tool last year were Wander Franco and Nick Madrigal. 70 hit is not something that gets thrown around lightly. People need to really believe in your bat.

And that’s what made Gleyber’s 38-homer season so exciting in 2019. You had this young guy touted for his hitting ability suddenly hitting for huge power too. Even the last two years, his pure hitting ability has been average more than bad. Relative to the MLB average, Torres has been …

• … 4% better in AVG (.255)
• … 6% better in OBP (.337)
• … 15% better in K% (19.5%)
• … 23% better in BB% (10.7%)

Also, his 22.3% chase rate those two seasons is a top 25 mark in baseball and comfortably better than the 27.2% league average. I feel like Gleyber’s at-bats are good overall, even the last two years. He occasionally gets too long with his swing when he hunts a fastball, but everyone does that now and then. Torres doesn’t get himself too often.

That said, a 70 hit tool isn’t supposed to translate to numbers that are a few percentage points better than league average. In this low batting average era, I’d say a 70 hitter is a guy who hits .300 regularly. Michael Brantley, basically. True 80 hitters are rare. That’s peak Ichiro, peak Miguel Cabrera, peak Tony Gwynn, etc. A Hall of Fame talent, basically.

Torres has been more of a 55 hitter than a 70 hitter the last two years, so he doesn’t have a carrying tool right now. That isn’t to say he can’t be a 70 hitter at his peak, but with his defense and lack of baserunning (and now lack of power), 55 hit is really pushing it. The current version of Torres doesn’t do enough other things well to make up for average-ish hitting ability.

I’m discouraged by Gleyber because he’s stopped hitting the ball with authority even while having good at-bats the last two years. I totally get not giving up on him though. Some players you’d rather give up on a year too early rather than a year too late. With Torres, I’d rather be a year late than a year early. There’s too much talent to not see it through.

Dmitry asks: What ever happened to that $500 million grievance the players filed in 2020? Are they going to use that as leverage in this CBA discussion (we will drop this if you give us X) or is it an entirely separate issue that will be arbitrated/settled outside of this CBA?

It’s still pending. It is separate from the Collective Bargaining Agreement but the MLBPA can use it as a negotiating chip exactly as Dmitry said: give us this and we’ll drop it. I have no idea how likely it is the grievance succeeds (if the players have a good chance to win, I imagine MLB would try to settle), but if you’re giving up a $500M grievance, you better get something pretty good in return.

For what it’s worth, Maury Brown says MLB filed a $500M counter-grievance, and I have no idea what they’re alleging. The $500M amounts to 20 games of player pay, so the union is claiming they could have played an 80-game season in 2020. MLB is claiming … they should have played 40 games and the MLBPA strong-armed them into playing 60? I don’t get it. I assume MLB’s lawyers have their ducks in a row, but I don’t get it.

Anyway, MLB and the MLBPA asked for an expedited grievance hearing so they could wrap this up before the CBA expired and that didn’t happen. I have no idea how long this will take to resolve.

Matt asks: I've got a non-baseball question for you. Now that it's been almost 3 years, what are your thoughts on transitioning RAB to Patreon? How's the overall experience been for you? Do you have any regrets? (Considering what you've said in the past I'm assuming the answer to that is a resounding no.) Are there any future plans for slight tweaks to posts on the Patreon or is this just simply the perfect format for you?

My only regret is going with Patreon rather than Substack, and I only say that because Substack allows you to embed videos. Patreon doesn’t, which is dumb. Otherwise I have no regrets at all. It was time to end that period of RAB – we closed the doors at the right time too, I have no idea how we would have come up with multiple posts per day during the shutdown and lockout – but I still have the itch to write about the Yankees, and this gives me that outlet. Twice a week has been just right for me. It’s not too much work and I can say everything I want to say (though I admit to feeling some strain during the lockout because there’s nothing happening). I’m always open to tweaking the format, but this has worked for me and I don’t have any plans to change right now.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)