February 10th, 2022: Not Top 30 Prospects, Williams, Mailbag

Lockout, Day 71: MLB’s PR machine is in overdrive. Within the last week the league requested federal mediation, blamed Scott Boras, and leaked that banned substance testing has stopped. “We’re trying to make a deal, but those evil players turned down assistance and are all taking steroids, and also Boras is the boogeyman.” That is the league’s official message with Spring Training on the cusp of being delayed. This is all so very stupid. Anyway, here is Friday’s post a day early because my annual Top 30 Prospects list will be posted tomorrow.

1. 2022 Not Top 30 Prospects. My annual Top 30 Prospects List will run tomorrow, and in keeping with tradition, it’s time to reveal my annual Not Top 30 Prospects List. To be clear, these are not prospects 31-35. They are five prospects outside this year’s top 30 who I think could make next year’s top 30 with a strong season and positive development.

None of last year’s Not Top 30 Prospects made it into this year’s top 30. I’ve been doing these Not Top 30s since 2009 (!) and this is the first time at least one prospect didn’t jump into the next year’s top 30. In my defense, we were coming off the weird pandemic season last year and had so little information on players. Still, I’m disappointed (the game is rigged and I still lost smh). Let’s dive into this year’s Not Top 30 Prospects.

LHP Edgar Barclay

Date of Birth: May 25th, 1998 (age 23)
Acquired: 2019 15th round, No. 465 overall ($125,000 bonus)
2021 Stats: 3.49 ERA (3.43 FIP) 35.4 K%, 7.9 BB%, 0.81 HR/9 (77.1 IP at A-, A+)
Projected 2022 Level: High-A and Double-A

Barclay is a little lefty (listed at 5-foot-10 and 200 lbs.) who pitches with big confidence, and has three good pitches and control. His fastball generally sits 91-94 mph and he’s picked up a new changeup that is his moneymaker. The Yankees also had him scrap the curveball he threw at Cal State Bakersfield and helped him add a high spin slider that misses bats (video).

There’s not a ton of upside here and the Yankees used Barclay in a swingman/tandem starter role last year, which tells you they don’t buy into him as a full-time starter. But a lefty with three pitches, control, and pitching know-how? It works even if it’s not the sexiest profile. Barclay might be the type who never appears on a prospect list but turns into a useful big leaguer anyway. Also, the Yankees have had a knack for getting guys like this to elevate their game.

RHP Juan Carela

Date of Birth: Dec. 15th, 2001 (age 20)
Acquired: Signed July 2018 out of Dominican Republic ($335,000 bonus)
2021 Stats: 6.38 ERA (5.35 FIP), 24.0 K%, 11.3 BB%, 0.64 HR/9 (42.1 IP at Rk, A-)
Projected 2022 Level: Low-A and maybe High-A

A six-start cameo with Low-A Tampa was not kind to Mr. Carela last season (27 runs in 20.1 innings), though he has a starter’s arsenal. Carela sat in the upper-80s when he signed and now he’s consistently in the mid-90s, and there could be more velocity on the way as he fills out his 6-foot-3, 186 lb. frame. This wasn’t a velocity spike that happened all at once. Carela added velocity the old school way (gradually as he matured). Here’s some old video.

In his mid-80s changeup and low-80s slider, Carela has two quality secondary pitches, with the analytics friendly slider (big spin, big break, etc.) showing out-pitch potential. Carela has better control than last year’s walk rate would lead you to believe. He repeats his delivery and generally throws strikes with three pitches. That’s a pretty good foundation. Carela will be Rule 5 Draft eligible in December, though he’ll need to really pop this summer to be put on the 40-man roster.

OF Fidel Montero

Date of Birth: Dec. 19th, 2003 (age 18)
Acquired: Signed Jan. 2021 out of Dominican Republic ($500,000 bonus)
2021 Stats: .193/.387/.339 (118 wRC+), 4 HR, 19.6 BB%, 40.0 K% (225 PA in DSL)
Projected 2022 Level: Rookie

The Yankees’ top two international signings last year were Monteros: Fidel and Hans (they signed a Willy Montero too). The Monteros aren’t related and Hans got the larger bonus ($1.7M), though Fidel is the better prospect. He blew up a bit as last year's signing period approached and other teams tried to buy him away from the Yankees by offering more money if he would wait until their bonus pools reset this year, but he stuck with the Yankees. Here’s some video.

Montero is officially listed at 6-foot-0 and 178 lbs., though that’s outdated. He had a growth spurt last year and is now closer to 6-foot-3 and 200 lbs. With the growth spurt came more power and more power projection, and he remains a very good athlete. Montero is a good runner with good outfield defense and a strong right fielder’s arm. Sometimes players have that growth spurt and lose athleticism and all the things that made them exciting early in their careers. Not Montero.

With the growth spurt and power uptick came more swing and miss. Montero has long arms and more body to control now, and it was a challenge last year. He’s going to play the entire 2022 season at age 18 (he’s younger than almost all the top high schoolers in this year’s draft class), so he has plenty of time to figure it out. The power/athleticism package is exciting. Montero has a case for the top 30 right now, though I’m not ready to put him in just yet.

OF Madison Santos

Date of Birth: Sept. 6th, 1999 (age 22)
Acquired: Signed Jan. 2018 out of Dominican Republic (bonus unknown)
2021 Stats: .279/.423/.523 (151 wRC+), 4 HR, 19.7 BB%, 24.6 K% (142 PA in Rk, A-)
Projected 2022 Level: Low-A and maybe High-A

Hardcore prospect hounds know Santos, who’s been a tooled up sleeper for a good three years now. He didn’t perform with Rookie Pulaski in 2019 (.203/.276/.382 and 81 wRC+) and he spent the pandemic season at home, costing him valuable reps. Santos is a lefty hitter with good bat speed who put up some of the best exit velocities in the farm system in 2021. He’s a little guy (5-foot-10 and 165 lbs.) who is way stronger than he looks. He’s also an excellent athlete (video).

The flip side is Santos is still incredibly raw. He takes wild, uncontrolled swings, and last year’s walk and strikeout numbers belie a lack of approach. Santos has premium tools in his athleticism and the way the ball jumps off his bat, but he is also very unrefined, and must learn to make adjustments and turn his natural gifts into usable baseball skills. He’s a high variance prospect who could break out and be a top 10 prospect in the system next year, or fall off the radar entirely.

RHP Tyrone Yulie

Date of Birth: Aug. 4th, 2001 (age 20)
Acquired: Signed July 2018 out of Dominican Republic (bonus unknown)
2021 Stats: 6.52 ERA (5.55 FIP), 28.4 K%, 17.6 BB%, 1.16 HR/9 (38.2 IP at Rk, A-)
Projected 2022 Level: Low-A

Behind the ugly stat line, which includes 26 walks in 28.1 Low-A innings with the automatic strike zone, is serious arm talent. Yulie sits in the mid-90s and touched 100 mph several times last summer with a fastball that has some run to it, and his snappy mid-80s slider can be unhittable. At 6-foot-4 and 180 lbs., Yulie still has more room to fill out his frame, and potentially add another tick to his fastball. For what it’s worth, he’s said to be a mature and hard-working kid.

The downside here is Yulie has poor control and effort in his delivery (video) – he’s a grip it and rip it thrower right now – and no third pitch. I wouldn’t close the book on anyone as a starter at this age, though Yulie is probably destined for the bullpen, where his high quality fastball/slider combination could make him a late innings dude. Yulie doesn’t need great control to dominate, but it will need to be better than it has been to date. He will be Rule 5 Draft eligible after the season and will be an interesting protection case should he improve his control.

2. Gerald Williams passes. Former Yankee Gerald “Ice” Williams passed away earlier this week. He was only 55 and had been battling cancer, which I do not believe was known publicly.

“The Yankees are deeply saddened to learn of the passing of Gerald Williams, who grew up in our minor league system and spent parts of seven seasons with us on the Major League level,” the team said in a statement. “Gerald had an infectious smile and was a beloved member of the clubhouse during his time in pinstripes. The Yankees extend their heartfelt condolences to Gerald’s family and friends. He will be missed.”

If you’re reading this, you probably know Derek Jeter and Williams were close. Jeter has said Williams looked out for him in his first big league camp and early in his MLB career. When the Yankees had the big No. 2 retirement ceremony a few years ago, they had Jeter on the field with a bunch of Yankees legends and dynasty teammates … and Williams. They were very tight.

"Gerald Williams passed away this morning after a battle with cancer," Jeter said in a statement Tuesday. "To my teammate and one of my best friends in the world, rest in peace, my brother. My thoughts and prayers are with his wife, Liliana, and their whole family."

Williams made his debut in 1992 but didn’t lock down a regular job until 1995, and even then he was stuck sharing at-bats with Luis Polonia, Tim Raines, and Darryl Strawberry. He played 99 games with the 1996 Yankees and was traded to the Brewers in a waiver deal for Graeme Lloyd that August. Tough timing, huh?

In parts of 14 big league seasons Williams hit .255/.301/.410 with 85 home runs and 106 stolen bases. That includes a .241/.298/.420 line in 384 games with the Yankees. He was with the Yankees from 1992-96, then returned for a second stint from 2001-02, so he was traded too early and returned too late to be part of the dynasty.

Williams was a gifted defender and a good role player who I remember doing some very cool things on the field. He had a straight steal of home in 1993 (video) and a six-hit game in 1996 (video). At the time it was only the second six-hit game in Yankees history. Here’s the list:

• June 6th, 1934: Myril Hoag vs. Red Sox: 6-for-6 (box score)
• May 1st, 1996: Gerald Williams vs. Orioles: 6-for-8, 1 HR (box score)
• June 7th, 2008: Johnny Damon vs. Royals: 6-for-6, 1 2B (box score) (video)

Williams also robbed Alex Rodriguez of extra bases with a splendid running catch in center field to save Doc Gooden’s no-hitter (video). He made the catch, then threw to first to double off the runner. I remember talking with friends about whether Bernie Williams would have made the catch and we arrived at “no.” Bernie was the man, but Gerald could go get it with anyone.

Later in his career Williams started an epic brawl with the Red Sox while with the (Devil) Rays in 2000. Pedro Martinez drilled Williams in the wrist and he charged the mound (video). The brawl resulted in eight ejections, five suspensions, and two injuries (Brian Daubach hurt his elbow and Lou Merloni suffered a concussion). I have a friend who grew up a Rays fan (yes, they exist) and he said Williams was one of the first players who didn’t make him feel embarrassed.

As recently as last year Williams was the general manager of the Tampa Bay Titans, a team in the independent The Basketball League. “I’m that guy who makes sure they understand there is no tomorrow. They can’t afford to say, ‘Oh, don’t worry, we’ll get ’em tomorrow.’ Tomorrow? What are you talking about? You’re going to get cut today!” Williams told Scott Cacciola about his general manager duties last January.

Williams’ two stints with the Yankees perfectly bookended the dynasty. Even though he didn’t get the rings, he did contribute to that success as a glue guy who mentored young players (like Jeter) and brought professionalism to the team in the early-to-mid-1990s. He was a solid, fun player whose value transcended what he did on the field because he was such a positive in the clubhouse. Rest in peace, Ice.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Bill asks: In your latest post you mentioned Pinstripe Alley and their series on the best 25 decisions. I've also been following that and recently they named the Curtis Granderson trade as one of their best 25. Thinking about it, and I won't even go down the Max Scherzer angle, I'm not so sure that was a great trade. Grandyman was great, but wouldn't the Yankees really have been better off in the long run keeping IPK, Austin Jackson, and Phil Coke. I took a quick look at WAR and it seems like they outperformed Granderson. What are your thoughts?

That was a three-team trade with a clear winner (the Tigers because they got Max Scherzer) and a clear loser (the Diamondbacks because they gave up Max Scherzer). The Yankees fall somewhere in the middle, and if you do nothing more than add up WAR, the Yankees lost big time:

• Austin Jackson: +21.7 WAR during team control years
• Curtis Granderson: +14.9 WAR during remainder of contract
• Ian Kennedy: +9.5 WAR during remaining team control years
• Phil Coke: +1.1 WAR during remaining team control years

That’s +14.9 WAR brought in and +32.3 WAR sent out. There are other things to consider like salary paid (which makes the trade look worse for the Yankees) and WAR per roster spot (hard to definitively say how the Yankees used the other two spots), but in terms of WAR in vs. WAR out, the Yankees lost the trade. (“Lost” isn’t a good word. Maybe they just won it less.)

Adding up WAR is too simplistic though. The Yankees were coming off a World Series title and looking to repeat, so they took the sure thing over the rookie in center field. The Tigers missed the postseason the three previous years and were a .500 team in 2010. They could live with Jackson’s ups and downs, which included leading the league in strikeouts as a rookie. As a team trying to repeat, I don’t think the Yankees were willing to put up with the growing pains.

As for Kennedy, he had one stellar season with the D’Backs (2011) and was average overall (99 ERA+ during his remaining team control years), and the Yankees don’t really do average. The starters they bring in and the prospects they keep tend to have the potential to pitch at or close to the top of a rotation (J.A. Happ is the notable recent exception). I’m not saying that’s right or wrong. I’m just saying Kennedy wasn’t really their type. Even as a prospect, he was viewed as a high probability mid-rotation guy who’d eat innings for a decade rather than a future ace.

I’m not sure Kennedy with his home run issues (four years of at least 1.2 HR/9 during his team control years) would have mixed well with Yankee Stadium. I feel Kennedy would have been that starter the Yankees were always trying to replace had they kept him, and eventually they would have traded him anyway. Jackson? Who knows. Maybe he thrives with the Yankees right away, sticks in center long-term, and they never sign Jacoby Ellsbury to replace Granderson.

(Coke is a non-factor in this discussion for me. He had some good times and some not so good times after the trade, and put up a 96 ERA+ and a 3.66 FIP in his remaining team control years. That makes him like many other relievers. Whatever.)

It took Granderson some time to find his way (he didn’t remake his swing until Aug. 2010), but once he did, he gave the Yankees about 2.5 years of top notch power production (his fourth year with the Yankees was sabotaged by two separate hit-by-pitch injuries). The Yankees got what they wanted from Granderson, more or less. They may have underestimated Jackson’s ability to contribute right away, though I suspect they knew exactly what they were giving up with Kennedy, and didn’t mind one bit.

I am pro-trading prospects, especially when you’re a no-doubt World Series contender like the Yankees were in 2010. Don’t give prospects away, of course, but Granderson was 28 at the time and coming off three straight +4 WAR seasons (and four straight +3 WAR seasons), and he had four affordable years remaining on his contract. We’ve talked a bunch about Bryan Reynolds as a trade target, right? Reynolds now and the Grandyman then were pretty similar.

Properly evaluating a trade requires more context than WAR. The Yankees were a World Series contender and took the sure thing All-Star caliber player, and sacrificed some potential future value (future value that was realized) to get it while the window was open. It’s the kinda trade contending teams should make more often. Yeah, the Yankees came out behind in WAR, but they got a pretty good player, and I’m not sure they missed the two players they surrendered all that much. I don’t think we need to assign a “win” or “loss” label to this one. The trade worked out for everyone (except for the D’Backs giving up a 24-year-old Scherzer).

Brian asks: Is Miguel Andujar the new Joba? I think people forget how energizing it was to watch him hit … a contrast to the boring offense the team puts on the field now. The Yankees bury him and the fan base suffers because walks and 3 run HRs by Joey Gallo may statistically predict more wins, but line drive missiles to the gap are why we watch baseball. And the Yankees must optimize the use of that kind of talent if they’re going to be so obsessed with staying under a soft cap. Both Joba and Miggy suffered from injuries, but more importantly they suffered from a lack of conviction from the Yankees on a path to a great Yankees career.

I’m a self-proclaimed Andujar fanboy, so take anything I say about him with a grain of salt. I think the 2018 version of Andujar was much more entertaining than Gallo. I’m not saying Andujar was the better player or anything like that. Just aesthetically, I enjoy his style more. More contact, more running around, more outward excitement, etc. Gallo’s a really good player who does a lot to help his team win even while hitting .200. Is he the most exciting player to watch? Eh, I don’t think so. Taking so many pitches is boring, and all the swing and miss is an eyesore.

We haven’t seen the good version of Miggy Missiles in quite some time now and we may never see him again. It’s a bummer. He was a blast when healthy. Here is the complete list of righty hitters with 75+ extra-base hits in a season for the Yankees:

• Joe DiMaggio (1936, 1937, 1938, 1941, 1948, 1950)
• Bob Meusel (1921, 1925)
• Alex Rodriguez (2005, 2007)
• Alfonso Soriano (2002, 2003)
• Aaron Judge (2017)
• Miguel Andujar (2018)

Being good at baseball and making baseball fun are not always the same thing. Gallo is a good player who is a tough watch, I think. Ronald Torreyes kinda stinks but is a joy. Force me to pick and I’d take good over fun because winning still reigns supreme, though as I’ve gotten older, the entertainment component of baseball has become a higher priority. If I’m gonna dedicate this much of my life to watching the sport, at least give me fun and cool stuff, and Miggy is fun and cool when he’s healthy and hitting.

Jon asks: Is this just dumb optimism by me or is there a chance that the Beltran hire is at least in part a “testing of the waters” to gauge how fans could react to a Correa signing?

I think it’s dumb optimism, sorry. I don’t think the Yankees care all that much about how fans will react to anything, good or bad. I’m sure it factors into the equation some, but it can’t be a driving factor in a decision. Maybe it’s something that breaks a tie. There are two players you value equally and you know one will be more popular, so you sign him. That kinda thing.

Fans are fickle. We’ll curse out Carlos Correa now because of the sign-stealing scandal, but the instant he gets a big hit in pinstripes, we’ll love him. Then we’ll hate him again when he strikes out in a big spot. It is the nature of fandom, and I don’t think it would be smart to make that a major consideration in a decision like this. We’re talking a $300M+ decision here. I don’t think the Carlos Beltran hire has anything to do with Correa. If anything, the Beltran hire shows how little the Yankees concern themselves with fan reaction.

(Ownership went over Brian Cashman’s head to re-sign Ichiro Suzuki in 2013. I guess we could say the fan reaction drove that signing because Ichiro is a global icon who sold a bunch of tickets and was also approaching 3,000 hits, but I dunno. That seems like a decision based on money, not necessarily fan reaction.)

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)