January 7th, 2022: Lockout, Chavez, Brewers, ZiPS, Mailbag

At some point soon I’ll begin working on my annual Top 30 Yankees Prospects list, though the lockout is throwing a wrench into things. I’d like to know who gets traded (if anyone), who gets added (if anyone), and when pitchers and catchers are going to report, you know? If the end-of-lockout timing allows, it will run the Friday before pitchers and catchers report, as usual. Here’s last year’s list. Now to today’s thoughts.

1. On the lockout. The calendar has flipped to 2022 and, as of this past Monday, this is now the longest lockout in MLB history. The previous record was the 1990 lockout at 32 days. We’re at 37 days and counting. At some point this month MLB and the MLBPA will get together and start working on the new Collective Bargaining Agreement (I think). There hasn’t been much urgency on either side yet. I have a few quick thoughts on the lockout, so let’s get to ‘em.

No talks yet

Earlier this week Jeff Passan (subs. req’d) had a CBA talks update that was essentially a non-update. Not only have the two sides not yet discussed core economic matters (the only matters that truly matter), they haven’t even scheduled a bargaining session. That could change with one phone call, but it sure doesn’t seem like anyone is in a rush to do anything.

This is Day 37 of the lockout. That’s 37 days MLB and the MLBPA could have worked on an extremely complex contract that will govern how $50 billion or so in revenue is distributed over the next five years, and instead nothing. Pitchers and catchers are supposed to report in five weeks and that’s 37 days the two sides can’t get back. Rob Manfred’s letter to fans said he hoped “the lockout will jumpstart the negotiations.” That obviously didn’t happen.

Since Manfred took over as commissioner, his M.O. has been to wait until the last second to do anything, and that’s not going to work here. This isn’t a run of the mill “tweak this and adjust that and we’re good to go” CBA negotiation. Both sides proposed major changes to the sport’s economic structure prior to the lockout. It’s going to take time to resolve everything, and instead we get this (from Passan):

Earlier in (the day the CBA expired), MLB had said it wanted to talk about core economics, but only on the condition that those discussions not include any changes to the six-year reserve period of free agency, the arbitration system or revenue sharing. The union would not agree to that condition. Seven minutes in, there was nothing left to discuss. MLB left the hotel and did not return.

“We want to discuss core economics, but not this core economics stuff.” I know it’s natural to feel more pessimistic the longer the lockout goes on and maybe I’m overreacting, but right now, I would be surprised if Spring Training starts on time. They’re going to need at least two weeks to finish the offseason so teams can:

• File salary figures for arbitration-eligible players and schedule hearings.
• Conduct the Rule 5 Draft.
• Get visas for players from other countries (pretty important!).

That’s just the stuff on the league’s schedule that has to be done. Then you have free agents and trades and all that. Two weeks for the offseason leaves the two sides only three weeks to hammer out a new CBA if the plan is to start Spring Training on time. Doable? Sure. Does it seem likely? Not to me. Each side is waiting for the other to blink.

The 1990 lockout set the precedent for a truncated Spring Training and a delayed Opening Day, so maybe that happens again. The regular season is the real drop dead date. Players don’t get paid in Spring Training and spring revenue is a drop in the bucket for teams. Regular season paychecks are what no one wants to lose. No one will sweat a late start to camp though.

It’s been 37 days and no progress has been made on the CBA. Baseball is growing increasingly irrelevant – being completely out of the news cycle is pretty bad, guys! – and the league won't be able snap its fingers and get every fan to come running back when this is over. MLB and the MLBPA have spent 37 days making pouty faces at each other from across the room. We’re all very impressed. Now get to work before you damage the sport further.

The international signing period

What is technically the 2021-22 international signing period is scheduled to begin next Saturday, Jan. 15th. That’s the Roderick Arias signing period (not the Brandon Mayea signing period). Here’s a piece of the latest scouting report from Ben Badler (subs. req’d):

Arias is one of the best all-around players in the class with a promising mix of tools and skills across the board. He's a switch-hitter whose swing is quick, compact and adjustable, with the ability to recognize spin well for his age and has good performances against live pitching. He makes hard contact for his age, with more power now from the right side, and has a chance to grow into above-average power once he fills out his lean, athletic frame. He's also an above-average runner with the athleticism, hands and footwork to handle shortstop, along with his best tool, a plus-plus arm.

There hasn’t been any indication the international signing period will be postponed. It’s minor league contracts only, the 40-man roster isn’t involved, so hopefully it goes on as scheduled like the minor league Rule 5 Draft last month. I’m not sure that’s a fitting comparison though. There’s very little money involved in the minor league Rule 5 Draft. The $24,800 selection fee and that’s it.

With international free agency, teams are paying out several million dollars in bonuses (I believe the Dodgers have the smallest bonus pool at $4.2M this year), and those bonuses get paid right away. With the minor league Rule 5 Draft, players are already under contract and teams don’t have to pay them until the minor league season begins. With international free agency, they’re cutting bonus checks next Saturday.

MLB has pushed for an international draft for years (decades really), and even if they’re not going to get it in this CBA, the league could postpone the start of international free agency just in case they do get a draft, which of course is a mechanism to cut costs. If there’s a chance to save a buck or make a buck (same difference), the league will probably take it.

International free agency is supposed to start next Saturday, so we should know pretty soon if it will actually happen. I’m hopeful it will. These deals have been in place for months, even years in some cases, and pulling the rug out from everyone at the last moment would create chaos. Then again, when has Manfred’s MLB ever cared about that?

2. Mets hire Chavez. This has to be some kinda record for a rookie coach joining a staff, then leaving for a promotion. Eric Chavez will not be one of the Yankees' assistant hitting coaches after all. He’s joining the Mets as their primary hitting coach, reports Mark Feinsand. The Yankees announced the Chavez hire on Dec. 21st, so he was on the job for a little more than two weeks. Aaron Boone sung his praises during a conference call and everything.

“I view him as a little bit of a Swiss Army Knife where he’s going to have a lot of different responsibilities. He’s going to have his hands on a lot of different things. It’s a role that I feel like is going to evolve as he allows it to,” Boone said. “I feel like Spring Training, it’s a role that can grow. During the season, it’s a role that can grow. But I feel like he’s going to have a big impact, but also be part of the hitting crew, where he’s going to have a lot of input. He’s done it at a very high level in the box. To be able to have those kinds of conversations with guys is really important.”

This is not Chavez reneging on his agreement with the Yankees. The Yankees announced the hiring, so he was under contract. The Mets asked permission to interview Chavez for their hitting coach job, the Yankees granted it because teams almost always grant permission to interview for promotions, and Chavez took the job when it was offered. No more, no less. Why be an assistant hitting coach when you can be the hitting coach?

The Yankees could have denied the Mets permission to interview Chavez (denying permission to interview for promotions happens but it is rare), but blocking a promotion could’ve damaged their relationship with Chavez. Also, letting Chavez leave so soon after hiring him makes the Yankees look pretty good to prospective employees, if anything. Who wants to work for a team that will block your ability to move upward?

Anyway, I assume Chavez’s relationship with Mets GM Billy Eppler was a factor. Chavez and Eppler worked together in the Yankees front office in 2015, then when Eppler left to become the Angels GM after that season, he brought Chavez along. Chavez was a special assistant to Eppler during his entire tenure with Anaheim (2016-20). You don’t hire Buck Showalter and not give him say over the coaching staff, so Buck approved the hire.

The Yankees will now look for a new assistant hitting coach – hitting coach Dillon Lawson and assistant hitting coach Casey Dykes are the holdovers – and they could go back to the list of people they interviewed before hiring Chavez, or interview new candidates entirely. It’s not like there’s anything else going on during the lockout. They have some time to figure this out. So, the coaching staff is not settled just yet. Still one more spot to fill, as if I haven’t written enough about assistant hitting coaches this offseason.

3. Possible trade partners: Milwaukee Brewers. Every offseason there seems to be that one team or two that matches up perfectly with the Yankees for a trade. The Athletics are that team this offseason. The second team, if there is one, might be the defending NL Central champion Brewers. Milwaukee won 95 games in 2021 and will go into 2022 as the division favorites.

According to Cot’s, the Brewers already have $112.3M on the books for 2022, which would be the second highest payroll in team history (the franchise record is $122.5M in 2019). Swapping Jackie Bradley Jr. (owed $17.5M in 2022) for Hunter Renfroe (projected $7.6M) was fine work that saved money and made the team better. Still, there’s more room to improve.

It appears the Brewers can add payroll, though not so much unless ownership is willing to set a new franchise record. This may be a “a dollar in and a dollar out” situation. If that is the case, then the Brewers will have to be creative to further improve the roster. In particular, they need more offense. They were a middle of the pack offense last year and that’s not good enough.

“We’ve got a core here that we expect to be our core for years and that is what gives us optimism going forward,” president of baseball operations David Stearns told Adam McCalvy in October. “It starts with our pitching staff. Those guys had a tremendously special year. Knowing how dedicated and motivated that group is, I think they're pretty inclined to do everything they can to take it a step further and really leave no doubt as to what is the best starting staff in baseball right now.”

Assuming their top three starters (Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff) and core position players (Willy Adames, Omar Narvaez, Christian Yelich, etc.) are off-limits, are there any other Brewers who make sense for the Yankees? And can two contenders who surely don’t want to weaken their MLB roster find common ground? Let’s look.

OF Lorenzo Cain

I already covered Cain as a possible trade target a few weeks ago, so I’m going to keep this brief. The Brewers have since traded Bradley, leaving Cain as the only true center fielder on the roster, in which case moving him is unlikely. I didn’t think it was all that likely to start with, but now it’s really unlikely. So it goes.

LHP Josh Hader

2021 stats: 1.23 ERA (1.69 FIP) with 45.5 K% in 58.2 IP
Contract status: Projected $10M in 2022 and arbitration-eligible in 2023

Hader, who is still only 27, is no stranger to the trade block. He’s been a trade candidate for a few years now, and this is probably the time to trade him if you’re the Brewers. Hader is two years away from free agency, he’s expensive, and they could plug Devin Williams in at closer while filling out the rest of the bullpen on the cheap (they’re very good at developing pitchers).

The Yankees have had interest in Hader in the past and it’s easy to see how he’d fit. He would replace Zack Britton as the Eighth Inning Guy in 2022, when his salary would be a non-issue because the Yankees will be over the luxury tax threshold, then he’d take over as closer in 2023, when Britton and Aroldis Chapman (and Chad Green) become free agents. See? Easy.

Earlier in his career Hader was a multi-inning monster who pitched in the game’s highest leverage situation regardless of inning. That took its toll, and the Brewers now use Hader as a strict one-inning reliever. Considering how good he was in 2021, it’s hard to argue with the results. Not many guys can do the multi-inning thing long-term. Green is an outlier.

“Focusing health-wise, I don’t think that would be realistic,” Hader told McCalvy about going multiple innings before the postseason. “The last time I did it was 2019. My saying is, ‘Why fix something that isn’t broken?’ I feel like that’s what we have here. It’s been working.”

Hader had his highest average fastball velocity ever in 2021 (96.4 mph), possibly thanks to his new one-inning role. His slider is nasty. He’s one of the most dominant relievers in the game. I don’t think there’s much more to say than that. The 45.5% strikeout rate last year essentially matched his 44.4% career average. That’s just who he is. He’s an extreme bat-misser.

Do the Yankees need bullpen help? No, not really. Would Hader make the bullpen better? Of course he would. He’d make every bullpen better. The Yankees could bring in Hader and then do something like flip Green and/or Jonathan Loaisiga for help elsewhere on the roster, or they could just keep everyone and have a overwhelmingly deep bullpen.

The Yankees have more pressing needs (shortstop, first base, etc.), but I wouldn’t dismiss pursuing Hader. They’ve had interest in him in the past and this is the time to move him if you’re the Brewers. Two years of Hader would fetch more than one year of Hader next offseason, plus you wouldn’t have to worry about him getting hurt in the interim. It fits.

1B Keston Hiura

2021 stats: .168/.256/.301 (52 wRC+) with 4 HR in 197 PA
Contract status: Pre-arbitration-eligible in 2022 and arbitration-eligible from 2023-25

Hiura is so bad. So, so bad. He was the No. 9 pick in the 2017 draft, he hit .303/.368/.570 (139 wRC+) with 19 homers as a rookie in 2019, and he’s hit .192/.279/.362 (71 wRC+) in 443 plate appearances since. That rookie season came with a few red flags (30.7% strikeouts and 17.5% swings and misses), but I’m not sure anyone envisioned a drop off this drastic.

The Brewers had to send the 25-year-old Hiura to Triple-A for a spell last season, where he put up a .256/.374/.465 (127 wRC+) line with still worrisome 33.5% strikeout and 15.2% swinging strike rates. Here’s the bottom of the in-zone contact rate leaderboard the last two years (min. 400 plate appearances):

1. Keston Hiura: 64.6%
2. Bobby Dalbec: 71.4%
3. Joey Gallo: 71.6%
4. Mike Zunino: 74.0%
5. Javier Baez: 74.1%
   (MLB average: 84.1%)

Hiura has a sub-Gallo in-zone contact rate without Gallo’s power, defense, or baserunning. Yikes. Yikes yikes yikes. The swings are so ugly too. Like, what is this? (video link)

Maybe no one has ever told Hiura to keep his eye on the ball? I’m not sure what he’s looking at there, but it isn’t the ball, and he got blown away – blown away – by a middle-middle 90 mph heater. Hiura has looked lost at the plate the last two years and he’s essentially a DH who has already moved from second base to first base early in his career.

There’s no way the Brewers could go into 2022 planning to have Hiura in the lineup and there’s no way the Yankees could take him as anything other than a reclamation project. He has an option remaining, so they could send him to the minors to work with the coaches who helped Oswaldo Cabrera, Diego Castillo, Hoy Jun Park, et al get their careers on track.

Deivi Garcia for Hiura, who says no? They’re similar as former top prospects who had disaster seasons a year ago, so it’s a change of scenery trade. I’d rather keep Deivi. He was good two years ago (Hiura wasn’t), he’s several years younger, and it’s ostensibly easier to fix a pitcher than it is a hitter because pitcher analytics are still way ahead of hitter analytics.

Anyway, the Yankees couldn’t acquire Hiura and count on him contributing in 2022 at all. He’s been so terrible the last few years and has so much work to do to be a viable big leaguer, and even if he gets sorted out at the plate, he won’t have any defense or baserunning value. If Hiura doesn’t hit, he’s useless, and right now he’s useless. He’s not a first base option.

RHP Adrian Houser

2021 stats: 3.22 ERA (4.33 FIP) with 17.5 K% and 59.0 GB% in 142.1 IP
Contract status: Projected $2.3M in 2022 and arbitration-eligible in 2023 and 2024

Other than Hader, Houser most fits the Yankees among realistically available Brewers players, and I say that because he’s a power sinker pitcher with a changeup and a track record of limiting hard contact. That’s the profile the Yankees target these days. Here’s the exit velocity allowed leaderboard since 2019 (min. 800 balls in play):

1. Ryan Yarbrough: 83.9 mph
2. Julio Urias: 84.6 mph
3. Zack Wheeler: 85.3 mph
4. Brandon Woodruff: 85.6 mph
…
10. Adrian Houser: 86.3 mph
(MLB average: 88.8 mph)

Houser, 29 in February, has never missed bats (career 19.9% strikeouts), but he is a ground ball pitcher (56.4%) with a mid-90s sinker, a low-80s curveball, and an upper-80s changeup that needs work. Pitching coach Matt Blake & Co. have done nice work getting pitchers to improve (and believe in) their changeup, so Houser would be a nice project for them. Here’s some video.

Improving the changeup will be important for Houser because his curveball is a junk pitch. It is a shockingly low spin breaking ball (1,855 rpm in 2021!) that had a 24.0% whiff rate last year, well below the 32.2% curveball average. Opponents hit .279 with a .410 SLG against Houser’s curve in 2021. The league averages are .215 and .345, respectively. Houser’s curve is just bad.

Because the curveball isn’t a consistent weapon and the changeup is just okay, Houser has a very big platoon split. Always has. The sinker alone is good enough to handle righties. Lefties? Not so much. This is a capital-P Problem:

2021 vs. RHB: .192/.285/.299 (.265 wOBA) with 19.1 K% and 8.7 BB%
2021 vs. LHB: .273/.370/.392 (.338 wOBA) with 15.5 K% and 13.3 BB%

Career vs. RHB: .211/.283/.327 (.269 wOBA) with 21.1 K% and 6.9 BB%
Career vs. LHB: .283/.376/.446 (.355 wOBA) with 18.6 K% and 12.5 BB%

The ground balls keep the ball in the park, but, generally speaking, a righty who struggles against lefties is a poor fit for Yankee Stadium. Either Houser improves the curveball and/or changeup and has more success against lefties going forward, or he’s going to top out at what he is right now, a No. 4 starter on a good team. And hey, there’s nothing wrong with that. Good teams need No. 4 starters.

The Brewers are very good at developing pitchers and if Houser hasn’t improved his curveball or changeup three full seasons into his big league career, this might be what he is. The Yankees are all about sinkers and limiting hard contact these days, and Houser fits the profile, so he’s on the radar. Would Milwaukee trade their No. 4 starter? Unclear, but it appears Houser checks the right boxes for the Yankees.

LHP Eric Lauer

2021 stats: 3.19 ERA (4.04 FIP) with 23.9 K% in 118.2 IP
Contract status: Projected $2.7M in 2022 and arbitration-eligible in 2023 and 2024

That’s former Padres’ Opening Day starter Eric Lauer to you. He started Opening Day for San Diego in 2019 – did you know the Padres have had nine different Opening Day starters in the last nine years? – and went to the Brewers in the Trent Grisham/Luis Urias trade last offseason. 2020 was very rough (16 runs in 11 innings). This year went very well.

This flew under the radar a bit and I wrote about it at CBS in September, but the Brewers used a six-man rotation most of last season. Brett Anderson joined Burnes, Houser, Lauer, Peralta, and Woodruff in the rotation – Brewers pitchers made 139 starts on extra rest, behind only the Angels (148) and Pirates (147) – and to make it work, Lauer rode the shuttle. He was the poor sap who got sent up and down to clear a roster spot when necessary.

Anyway, the 26-year-old Lauer is a true five-pitch pitcher (four-seamer, cutter, curveball, slider, changeup) who throws each pitch at least 12% of the time and isn’t overpowering. He topped out at 95.8 mph in 2021, which is the kinda velocity that would make us worry something is wrong with Gerrit Cole. There’s really nothing that stands out about Lauer. Here's video and here’s last season:

• Strikeout rate: 23.9% (MLB average: 23.2%)
• Walk rate: 8.4% (MLB average: 8.7%)
• Ground ball rate: 35.8% (MLB average: 42.9%)
• Home run rate: 1.21 HR/9 (MLB average: 1.26 HR/9)
• Average exit velocity: 89.8 mph (MLB average: 88.8 mph)
• RHB wOBA: .278 (MLB average for LHP: .329)
• LHB wOBA: .285 (MLB average for LHP: .289)

Roughly average at everything, and when you’re roughly average at everything, it means you have no obvious strength. It also means you have no obvious weakness, like Houser’s issues with lefties. I know average isn’t sexy, but being able to give 25 average starts a year is damn valuable. Teams pay $10M+ a year for that in free agency.

Lauer has a lot of success pitching up in the zone with his fastball and, as Luke Hooper noted, the pitching savvy Brewers helped him tweak his mechanics and improve the overall quality of his stuff. Neat little player development story. Are there still more gains to be made? Sure, it’s always possible. Even if this is all Lauer can be, he’s a useful piece.

The question with is whether Milwaukee is willing to trade from their rotation. Anderson is a free agent but easily replaceable, and top prospect Aaron Ashby seems ready for a larger role after getting his feet wet as a reliever last year. In theory, the Brewers could trade Lauer (or Houser) to save money and address other needs, re-sign or replace Anderson, plug in Ashby, and continue with the six-man rotation. It’s doable. Probable? I dunno, but doable.

LHP Brent Suter

2021 stats: 3.07 ERA (3.91 FIP) with 22.0 K% and 52.6 GB% in 73.1 IP
Contract status: Projected $2.3M in 2022 and arbitration-eligible in 2023

Suter, 32, is an outlier in this era of big velocity. His average fastball was 87.2 mph last year and he did not throw a pitch above 91.1 mph. Suter brings the funk from the left side out of the bullpen and he succeeds by pitching below the hitting speed rather than above it. He gets a lot of called strikes and weak contact because he straight up confuses hitters.

Despite averaging 87.2 mph, Suter throws his fastball roughly 75% of the time. He also has a curveball and a changeup, he gets out righties and lefties, and he’s an A+ pace of play guy. Suter is kinda like a lefty Darren O’Day, and the Yankees signed O’Day last offseason, showing us not everyone they employ needs to be a hard-throwing bat-misser.

Spending resources – in this case trading prospects – to secure a new middle reliever probably isn’t something the Yankees should do right now. For a guy like Hader, sure, but ideally Suter is what, your fourth or fifth best reliever? If the Yankees were to trade from their bullpen to address other needs, then Suter would make sense. As the roster currently stands, nah, but he is fun.

IF Luis Urias

2021 stats: .249/.345/.445 (111 wRC+) with 23 HR in 570 PA
Contract status: Projected $2.4M in 2022 and arbitration-eligible from 2023-25

Urias is a good reminder development is not linear, and you often need years to properly evaluate a trade involving young players. A year ago it looked like the Padres made out like bandits after getting Grisham and Zach Davies for Urias and Lauer. Now it appears the Brewers have come out ahead. At minimum, they wouldn’t undo the trade.

The 24-year-old Urias probably belongs in the “core position players who are off-limits” group. He is Milwaukee’s starting third baseman after opening last year as their starting shortstop, and breaking into the big leagues as a second baseman. He’s stretched defensively at short and looked much more comfortable at third following the Adames trade. Possibly relevant:

• Urias as SS: .217/.322/.374 (88 wRC+) in 203 PA (-3 DRS and -7 OAA)
• Urias as 3B: .255/.354/.445 (117 wRC+) in 220 PA (+6 DRS and -3 OAA)

Urias played so well at third base following the Adames trade that, even if it was a total coincidence, he is going to stay at third base moving forward. Adames is locked in at short and Kolten Wong is locked in at second. Third base (and I guess DH) is the only way to get Urias in the lineup.

Given his deficiencies at short, Urias would not solve that problem for the Yankees, even if he were available. I’d take him to play third, sure, though you then have to figure out what to do with Gio Urshela (I don’t want him at short full-time) and you still need a shortstop. Urias is very good, very young, and very affordable. The Brewers are going to keep him.

What could the Yankees offer?

A few weeks back Joel Sherman reported the Brewers have had interest in Luke Voit in the past and Voit makes sense for them. The Brewers were 18th in home runs (194), 23rd in SLG (.396), and 24th in wRC+ (91) in 2021. Even if Yelich goes back to being MVP Yelich, there’s still room for another power hitter in that lineup. Voit (and the universal DH) would help greatly.

Milwaukee’s window is as open as it’s going to get – the rotation is cheap and the rest of the NL Central is blah, so the division is theirs for the taking – so I don’t think they would trade Hader or Houser or whoever for minor leaguers. I’m sure they’d take prospects as part of the package (especially for Hader), but an all-prospect package? Eh, seems unlikely. They’ll want MLB help.

Gleyber Torres could be in play here. I wouldn’t want to give him away, but if the Yankees are getting, say, Hader and Houser, or Hader and Lauer, it could work. The Yankees can put DJ LeMahieu at second full-time and the Brewers can use Torres and Wong in a second base/DH tandem until Wong’s contract runs out after next season. The Trade Values site says …

… lol. This is just a for fun exercise based on sketchy surplus value calculations, but I get it. Hader’s great while Gleyber is backsliding and down to three years of team control, not five or six. Milwaukee wouldn’t even save much money ($1.4M based on MLBTR’s projections). Either way, this is just me thinking out loud and not something being discussed as far as we know.

The Brewers are one of the few teams that might have a pitching surplus (I don’t think such a thing exists, especially these days, but humor me), and the Yankees could use another starting pitcher. I’d rather they just spend money on a pitcher than trade prospects, but there’s not much left in free agency. A trade may be the best way to get someone who moves the needle.

It’s not often two contenders get together for a trade nowadays because both teams are trying to strengthen their MLB roster, not subtract from it. That said, the Brewers did it with the Grisham trade, and sooner rather than later they’ll have to trade Hader (unless they’re willing to lose him for nothing in free agency). Every so often the stars align. Maybe it happens here.

4. 2022 ZiPS projections. Earlier this week 2022 Yankees ZiPS projections were released and, as a reminder, projections are not predictions. They’re an attempt to estimate a player’s current talent level based on historically similar players. Here is the WAR graphic:

It’s too bad a) there’s a lockout, and b) the Yankees did nothing before the lockout, because the ZiPS projections only cover the current roster, and the current roster is more or less the same as last year’s roster. There’s no new players to look at and the projections just tell us the Yankees need a shortstop, an outfielder, a starter, etc. Things we already know.

I don’t want to spend too much time on the projections (they’re projections, they can only be so interesting) but I do want to touch on a few things that caught my eye. First, Gleyber Torres and his fall from grace. As recently as last year ZiPS saw him as a star level hitter. Now? Nope. Here is Gleyber’s ZiPS through the years:

• 2018: .247/.321/.444 (104 OPS+) (before MLB debut)
• 2019: .266/.336/.479 (115 OPS+)
• 2020: .287/.348/.557 (136 OPS+)
• 2021: .284/.364/.526 (136 OPS+)
• 2022: .260/.332/.426 (106 OPS+)

If I told you right now Torres is guaranteed to hit .260/.332/.426 (106 OPS+) in 2022, would you take it? He hit .259/.331/.366 (93 OPS+) last year, for reference. I wouldn't take it. I would bet on the just turned 25-year-old bouncing back to something closer to his pre-2020 form rather than accept near league average production right out of the gate, but that’s just me.

Anyway, Gleyber’s decline is the sorta thing that would send me on a rampage if I owned the Yankees. He was supposed to be your infield building block, a kid with star caliber ability (who showed it in 2019), and he’s become this? Even the objective computer projection is jumping off the bandwagon. ZiPS loved Torres the last few years. Now he’s just another guy.

Second, ZiPS giving Luis Gil a Nolan Ryan comp* made me chuckle. The comps are based on “the baseline looking back, not the expectation going forward,” so ZiPS is comparing Gil to Ryan at the same age, and when Ryan was Gil’s age, he had a 15.0% walk rate in MLB. Always neat when ZiPS spits out a Hall of Fame comp though. Wouldn’t have guessed Gil would get one.

* Just to add to this, the post says “ZiPS isn’t predicting Luis Gil will be Nolan Ryan. Now, that’s one of his possible futures, but his next comps in order are Octavio Dotel, Jeff Juden, Jimmy Journell, and Daniel Cabrera.” Daniel Cabrera, eh? That guy drove me nuts.

Third, ZiPS really likes Anthony Volpe. The .228/.296/.419 (92 OPS+) projection doesn’t look great, but the system is telling us what it thinks this 20-year-old kid who has yet to play above Single-A could do in MLB right now. ZiPS had Bo Bichette at .251/.302/.410 (90 OPS+) at the same age and he had just spent an entire season at Double-A. The system is really, really high on Volpe (22 homer projection!).

And fourth, I like to use ZiPS to approximate depth. It’s an imperfect measure because these are just projections and the offseason isn’t over, but it’s good enough. We don’t need to drill down too much. I look at each team’s number of +4 WAR players (All-Star caliber), +2 WAR players (average players), and +1 WAR players (useful depth guys). Here’s the Yankees over the years:

That doesn’t include free agents (the Yankees don’t get credit for Anthony Rizzo's projection, etc.), and overall it’s about the same as the last few years. Gleyber and DJ LeMahieu taking steps back rob the Yankees of the other two +4 players they had last year*, but maybe they’ll bounce back. I expected a little less +2 WAR and +1 WAR depth but nope, still there.

* Aaron Judge (+5.2 WAR) and Gerrit Cole (+5.3 WAR) are the two +4 WAR players, but you knew that already. The only players with better projections are Fernando Tatis Jr. (+7.6 WAR!), Shohei Ohtani (+6.3 WAR combined), Vlad Guerrero Jr. (+5.9 WAR), Trea Turner (+5.5 WAR), and Jose Ramirez (+5.4 WAR). We’re still waiting for the final nine teams to be released.

How does that compare to other teams? We don’t have every team’s projection yet, but we have ZiPS for the Astros, Dodgers, Giants, and Red Sox. Those are big market contenders I would consider close to or on par with the Yankees in terms of resources, expectations, etc. There’s no sense comparing the Yankees to the Diamondbacks, Twins, etc. Teams like that should not be the baseline for the Yankees.

Projections are inherently conservative and I’ve been doing this depth approximation exercise long enough to know nine +2 WAR players and 20 +1 WAR players is pretty good. Here’s what ZiPS says about the Astros, Dodgers, Giants, and Red Sox:

I would bet the farm on Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts having +4 WAR seasons as long as they stay healthy, but ZiPS says what ZiPS says, and it says the Yankees’ depth stacks up well with other big market powerhouses (at least in the way I’m measuring it). Considering how many questions the Yankees still have (shortstop, center field, etc.), that’s oddly reassuring.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Anonymous asks: Ohtani is in the last year of his contract. If Ohtani and the Angels were willing to consider a trade, and Ohtani is willing to sign an extension, would you empty the stable for him? Would that even be enough if Toronto were willing to offer Guerrero, Boston Devers, or Tampa Bay Franco?

I would take Vlad Guerrero Jr. and especially Wander Franco over anything the Yankees could offer, for sure. I might take Rafael Devers too, though I’d have to put a little more thought into that given his proximity to free agency (two years away). Also, Shohei Ohtani is indeed entering the last year of his contract, though he will be arbitration-eligible in 2023. The Angels gave him a two-year, $8.5M deal last winter, when he was three years away from free agency. (Without that contract, his arbitration case this offseason would've been wild.)

There’s no one in the organization I’d make untouchable for Ohtani, with or without an extension. Even Aaron Judge. One year of Judge for two years of Ohtani? Sure. Ohtani had a better OPS+ than Judge and a better ERA+ than Gerrit Cole last year. You get the extra year of control and replace a righty bat with a (younger) lefty bat, and while you lose the right field defense, the pitching more than makes up for it. (Ohtani’s exact fit as a DH isn’t ideal, I will admit.)

As for an extension, Ohtani is a tough one to project moving forward. Last season was likely his career year – how could you expect him to do that year after year? – but even if he settles in as, say, a 125 OPS+ DH while throwing 100 or so league average innings, it’s incredibly valuable. His value transcends WAR because he’s filling two high profile roles (middle of the order thumper and frontline starter) while occupying just one roster spot.

The Angels have the resources to sign Ohtani long-term and they should. He’s a great player on the field, first and foremost, and he’s also this global sports icon who puts butts in the seats and creates tons of sponsorship opportunities. He’s so wholesome too! He represents the Angels and the game so well. You keep a player like this forever.

So yeah, to get a player as good as Ohtani, who also provides a boatload of value off the field, I’d make anyone and everyone in the organization available. I don’t expect Ohtani to ever repeat his 2021 season, that was insane, but he doesn’t need to do exactly that every year to be well worth a big trade and extension investment.

Alessandro asks: Someone speculated that the Mariners may flip Adam Frazier. Should the Yankees be interested (again)?

Hmmm, I’m not sure that passes the sniff test. Seattle’s second baseman hit .223/.295/.358 (85 wRC+) last year and their depth behind Frazier is bleak. I guess they could sign Carlos Correa or Trevor Story, or trade for Matt Chapman (or sign Kris Bryant) and move Abraham Toro back to second. That’s about the only way flipping Frazier would make sense to me.

Let’s roll with the hypothetical though. The Padres bought high and sold low on Frazier last year. They gave up three good prospects to get him at the deadline, including fringe top 100 prospect Tucupita Marcano, then traded him before the lockout for two okay prospects, one of whom is a 27-year-old reliever who’s barely pitched at Triple-A. Looks like San Diego got BABIPed:

• 2019-20: .265/.325/.402 (92 wRC+) with .290 BABIP
• 2021 with Pirates: .324/.388/.448 (128 wRC+) with .359 BABIP
• 2021 with Padres: .267/.327/.335 (85 wRC+) with .299 BABIP

Frazier’s Padres numbers look similar to his 2019-20 Pirates numbers, albeit with less power. He’s not really a power hitter anyway. The SLG decline is tied up in fewer doubles moreso than fewer homers. His contact numbers were still excellent with San Diego (10.8% strikeouts and 5.4% swings and misses), it’s just that the contact didn’t lead to much.

Now that I think about it, Yankee Stadium would be a poor fit for Frazier. It’s a terrible doubles and triples ballpark (Statcast and FanGraphs park factors have it as one of the worst doubles and triples parks in the game). It’s a home run park and Frazier is not the type of hitter who elevates the ball and will take advantage of the short porch. He’s an opposite field hitter who uses the gaps. His 2021 spray chart:

That isn’t to say the Yankees shouldn’t acquire Frazier. Just that he wouldn’t necessarily see a boost in power production from Yankee Stadium. He’s a lefty hitter who rarely strikes out and the Yankees could use someone like that. Not everyone needs to be geared for home runs and the short porch. A little lineup diversity can go a long way.

Frazier hasn’t played an infield position other than second base since 2017, and he hasn't played an outfield position other than left field since 2018. He’s not that versatile anymore. The Yankees already have two second basemen, but I guess they could put Frazier in left and move Joey Gallo to center. I dunno. I’d want more bat from my left fielder.

Frazier as a super utility guy (think a better version of 2021 Rougned Odor) could work as long as you’re willing to trade prospects and pay a projected $7.2M for a “tenth” man. When you’re the Yankees, paying big for a quality super utility guy is the kinda thing you should be okay with given your resources. Isn’t this what they did with DJ LeMahieu’s original two-year deal?

As always, the prospect costs matters. If the Yankees can get Frazier for the same prospect package as the Mariners (Double-A reliever and last year’s 12th round pick), then by all means, go for it. I can’t imagine Seattle would acquire Frazier for that only to then flip him for that though, especially given their second base situation. They’re gonna keep him.

(Isn’t Tony Kemp the same kinda second base/corner outfield low strikeout lefty? Kemp has two years of control to Frazier’s one, is projected to make about one-third as much in 2022, and is rated as a much better baserunner. Kemp was part of my Offseason Plan. He’s a viable alternative to Frazier, and maybe even more desirable given the extra year of control.)

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)