RAB Thoughts

November 2nd, 2021: Center Field, Prospects, DeJong

Added 2021-11-02 12:01:02 +0000 UTC

The World Series returns to Houston tonight and, as a fan, I hope we get Game 7 tomorrow, because Game 7s are awesome. One way or the other, the offseason will officially begin in no more than 48 hours, meaning contract option decisions are due at the end of the week and qualifying offer decisions are due early next week. Based on that, figure the middle of next week for the Offseason Plan? I have most of it outlined. Now I just need to write the damn thing. Anyway, let’s get to today’s post.

1. Center field in 2022. For whatever reason I’ve found myself thinking about the center field position the last few days. Brian Cashman acknowledged it is a position the Yankees will “evaluate” this offseason, though he says that about almost everything, so it’s hard to know what that means. “Evaluate” could easily turn into “we decided to stand pat.”

Aaron Hicks missed most of this past season with a wrist injury and he hopes to play winter ball this offseason, after he completes his rehab work. The Yankees still owe him $41M over the next four years, which isn’t much in the grand scheme of things, and I’m guessing the Yankees would love to be able to pencil Hicks into center field in 2022, and not have to worry about it.

That isn’t the case though. Injuries, most notably Tommy John surgery and wrist surgery, limited Hicks to 145 of 384 possible games from 2019-21, or 38%. He did manage to play 54 of 60 games a year ago, though had the start of the season not been delayed, Hicks would have missed time with elbow reconstruction. The delayed start allowed him to play in 90% of the team's games.

When Hicks played last year, he was quite good (.225/.379/.414 and 124 wRC+). When Hicks played this year, he was quite bad (.194/.294/.333 and 76 wRC+), though he was also coming off Tommy John surgery -- Hicks said he was tentative taking full swings and extending his arm when he first returned -- and who knows how long the wrist was bothering him.

Point is, Hicks is prone to missing time with injury, and it’s unclear whether we’ll get good Hicks or bad Hicks when he is on the field. Wrist surgery tends to sap power for a bit even after the player is healthy and cleared. Mark Teixeira had the same surgery in 2013 and his power didn’t fully return until 2015, two years later. A diminished Hicks in 2022 is possible if not likely.

So, what will the Yankees do in center field next season? The contract means they can’t push Hicks aside completely, and if he comes back healthy and playing like he did prior to 2021 (he hit .257/.362/.457 and 123 wRC+ from 2017-20), he’s a guy they’ll want in the lineup. A bad contract for bad contract trade just shifts the problem elsewhere and doesn’t solve center field.

My hunch is Brett Gardner will decide to return next year, he’ll pick up his $2.3M player option, and the Yankees will consider center field solved with Gardner the Plan B behind Hicks. That would again make Aaron Judge their Plan C and some combination of Estevan Florial, Tyler Wade, and maybe even Joey Gallo their Plans D, E, and F. This seems plausible.

For the sake of discussion, let’s assume Gardner retires. What will the Yankees do in center field then? Florial is not ready. He hit .218/.315/.404 (93 wRC+) with a 30.9% strikeout rate in Triple-A this year after the Yankees shortsightedly moved him up (in response to the Hicks injury) after only nine games in Double-A. Florial should not be Plan B going into 2022.

Gallo could probably handle center field on an everyday basis, though the Yankees don’t seem to want to go there. They like him in left field. The free agent center field market has a few top notch options, then it really peters out (projected 2022 WAR):

Starling Marte: +3.1 WAR
Kris Bryant: +2.7 WAR (not a natural center fielder but has played there)
Michael Conforto: +2.5 WAR (corner guy who can fill in at center)
Mark Canha: +2.1 WAR (corner guy who can fill in at center)
Chris Taylor: +1.9 WAR (super utility guy who has played center)
Leury Garcia: +0.8 WAR (super utility guy who has played center)

One slam dunk center fielder in Marte, then four guys who could handle center if necessary, and then a big drop off. Marte is going to wind up getting something like five years and $80M like Lorenzo Cain and Dexter Fowler. Bryant is a $100M+ player. Conforto may accept the qualifying offer after the season he just had. Taylor has future Mariners disappointment written all over him.

Canha may hit the sweet spot between affordable and productive, though he finished the year in a bad slump following a hip injury (.191/.314/.309 and 83 wRC+ in August and September) and he’s not really a center fielder, so he’s an imperfect fit. If the Yankees make a big signing, I expect it to be at shortstop. Committing even more dollars (I mean another $15M+ per year) to center field doesn’t seem likely.

As for the trade market, either Cedric Mullins or Bryan Reynolds would be ideal. They are bona fide All-Star caliber players with long-term control. As I noted in a recent mailbag question about Reynolds, if you’re going to trade Anthony Volpe, that’s the kinda player you trade him for. A player who produces as a star level with multiple years of control. The same applies to Mullins.

The question with Mullins and Reynolds is not do they make sense for the Yankees. Of course they do. The question is whether their current teams are willing to trade them. Both are under control through 2025, and if you’re a general manager and don’t think you can contend by then, you stink at your job. Mullins and Reynolds are long-term keepers for their current teams. (There’s also the intradivision thing to consider with the Orioles and Mullins.)

The Twins shopped Byron Buxton at the trade deadline (when he was on the injured list) and will probably shop him again this offseason. He’s a top 5-10 player when healthy. He just isn’t healthy often enough (played only 215 of 548 games from 2018-21, or 39%). How do you value a guy like that, especially when he only has one year of team control remaining?

As good as Buxton is -- and he’s very good when he’s on the field -- he’s more of the same as a high strikeout right-handed batter. You’ll live with the strikeouts to get the other stuff (power, elite defense, elite baserunning), though trading good prospects for one year of a guy who may only play 50-something games is risky. Not sure the Yankees go there unless it’s a sweetheart deal.

In an extremely cursed way, the best center field trade target might be Kevin Kiermaier. I don’t want it to be true, but considering the team’s needs and their stated goals, Kiermaier does check a lot of boxes. Consider:

He’s still a fantastic defender. He does weird stuff out there like make unnecessary jumps from time to time (they’re all eyewash), but he’s excellent defensively.
He’s a lefty hitter who can pull the ball into a short porch. Hicks is a switch-hitter who is historically better against lefties, making him and Kiermaier an easy platoon.
He’s fast and a very good baserunner. You’ll get double digit stolen bases plus lots of first-to-thirds and things like that. The Yankees need more team speed badly.
He plays with an edge the Yankees lack. Most Rays are like that, though Kiermaier has the added motivation of being a 31st round pick who wasn’t a top prospect.
He has one guaranteed year left on his contract with a lower luxury tax hit ($8.9M) than actual compensation ($12M salary plus $2.5M option buyout).

Kiermaier has been on the block for several years and the Rays have yet to trade him, and the excuse we get is they value him too much to trade him, but come on. They haven’t traded him because he’s injury prone (played only 486 of 708 games from 2017-21, or 69%), an average at best hitter, and because he was owed a lot of money. Teams weren’t knocking exactly down the door for this guy.

The injury concerns are valid, ditto the meh offense, though Kiermaier is now down to the final guaranteed year on his contract. It’s no longer a long-term commitment. It’s pricey for the Rays but affordable for other clubs, and a drop in the bucket for the Yankees. Tampa is going to trade someone to cut salary this winter because they always do that. It might be Kiermaier’s turn.

Joel Sherman says the Yankees asked about Kiermaier (and Manny Margot and Brett Phillips) at the deadline, though I can’t see these two teams hooking up for a notable trade. Maybe the Yankees can engineer a three-team deal in which another team trades for Kiermaier, then flips him to the Yankees without Tampa knowing ahead of time? Seems complicated.

Anyway, the Yankees are in a weird place with center field right now. They have a center fielder who could be pretty damn good if healthy, but he also can’t be relied on to stay healthy. They have a more glaring need at shortstop and would likely dedicate top of the market dollars there. The top trade candidates will either require a significant prospect haul, are in the AL East, or both.

Like I said earlier, I think Gardner decides to come back for another year, and the Yankees take the easy way out in center field. I hope that isn’t the case, it would be kinda silly to do that again, but it’s plausible. The Yankees haven’t always attacked obvious areas of need aggressively the last few years, so doing it again with center field in 2022 would not be a surprise.

2. Minor league thoughts. The World Series is winding down but winter ball is ramping up, and you can watch the Dominican Winter League on MLB.tv this year. So if you’re itching to watch some baseball the next few months, go watch winter ball. It’s a good time. The games are competitive and the fans are really into it. Let’s get to some minor league thoughts.

Baseball America’s top 10

Earlier this week Baseball America (subs. req’d) published their top 10 Yankees prospects list, and since the top 10 is floating all around social media, I don’t feel guilty posting it here:

SS Anthony Volpe
SS Oswald Peraza
OF Jasson Dominguez
RHP Luis Gil
C Austin Wells
RHP Hayden Wesneski
SS Trey Sweeney
IF Oswaldo Cabrera
RHP Luis Medina
LHP Ken Waldichuk

A few years ago Josh Norris took over the Yankees list from John Manuel and since then it has skewed toward probability more than upside, which is fine. There’s no right way to rank prospects and everyone has different preferences. I tend to lean toward upside though. You’ll have a hard time convincing me Wesneski is a better prospect than Medina, for example.

I have a few quick thoughts on the updated scouting reports. One, it says Dominguez has “already slowed down and now earns (speed) grades closer to average than the double-plus times scouts once saw,” which is a bummer, though not the end of the world. He’s a short, stocky guy, and speed doesn’t age well, even at such a young age. As long as everything else is still there, it's fine.

Two, the Yankees worked with Wells to “tweak his approach to make him more aggressive in two-strike counts.” I heard he was being overly passive earlier this year -- he’d take pitches just for the sake of taking pitches and working the count -- so I’m glad the Yankees are trying to fix that. Walks are a byproduct of plate discipline, not the goal. Take them only when you don’t get anything to hit.

And three, Sweeney had all sorts of pre-swing movement at the plate as an amateur. He has a big leg kick, a bat waggle, the works (GIF via Farm To Fame):

The write-up says the Yankees are working with Sweeney to tone that stuff down and are “smoothing out his bat path.” Sweeney hit .245/.357/.518 (133 wRC+) with an 8.8% swinging strike rate in 29 Low-A games after signing. That’s pretty good, though all that pre-swing movement could create problems against better pitching.

I haven’t thought much (at all, really) about my annual top 30 prospects list. That’s still a few weeks away. Right now, I have outfielder Everson Pereira and infielder Alex Vargas as top 10 prospects, and I’m fairly certain I’ll have Wesneski and Waldichuk behind Randy Vasquez. I prefer upside to certainty. In the end, everyone’s floor is the same (not making it).

Wells in Arizona

Austin Wells is doing what a first round college bat should do in the Arizona Fall League: 12-for-40 (.300) with three doubles, two triples, a homer, and nearly as many walks (nine) as strikeouts (10). They’re using the automated strike zone in the AzFL, so the league average is a 14.0% walk rate. That sounds miserable. I understand and appreciate the value of walks but man are they boring.

Wells has always hit and he’s hitting again right now. I’m not so concerned with the bat. The big question with Wells is his defense, and whether he’ll actually be able to catch. Here is a snippet of Baseball America’s scouting report (subs. req'd):

There are few outside the organization who believe Wells can stick behind the plate. Those scouts point to a lack of twitchiness, struggles blocking pitches and well below-average arm strength that plays up a touch because of a quick release. Even so, Wells threw out just 13% of basestealers.

MLB tested rules promoting stolen bases in Single-A this year (pitchers had to step completely off the rubber to make a pickoff throw, and they were limited to two pickoffs per at-bat), but the average at the two levels Wells played at was still 24% caught stealing. He was far below that. Wells had an elbow injury in college and his arm never really bounced back. Now it’s a huge liability.

“Struggling to get anything on the ball (when throwing) and his hands aren’t much better,” a scout told Kristie Ackert recently. “Loud pulling pitches into the zone (when framing). A little leaner than (I was) expecting. And he had trouble controlling the bounces.”

The same scout praised Wells’ bat -- “He’s got a nice smooth swing, raw power, and uses all fields … Knowledge of the strike zone. Showed an ability to turn on velocity and go the other way,” the scout said -- but yeah, the defense isn’t good. The automated strike zone would eliminate any framing issues. Even then, the arm is a weakness.

The Yankees should stick with Wells at catcher going into next season, though he’s going to reach the point pretty soon where the bat is way ahead of the glove, and you have to stop letting the latter hold back the former. Wells might hit his way to Triple-A in 2022 and the big leagues in 2023. If that’s the case, you want him in the Bronx, not working on his defense in Scranton.

All indications are Wells is athletic enough to make left field work, though he might wind up at first base. I wouldn’t pull the plug on catching yet. Wells has only had one year of pro instruction behind the plate. I also wouldn’t stay committed to this forever. Unless we see big improvement early next year, I say put him in the outfield and let the bat dictate his climb through the minors, not his glove.

(In other AzFL news, outfielder Elijah Dunham is 16-for-41 (.390) with 12 walks and only two strikeouts through 12 games. He has a .545 OBP. Not often you see an OBP that starts with a 5, even after only 12 games.)

Medina’s season

I didn’t write about Luis Medina once this year and that’s both good and bad. Good in that he didn’t have a disaster year we were forced to acknowledge (like Deivi Garcia). Bad in that he didn’t take the huge step forward we could get excited about (like Randy Vasquez). He was the same old Luis Medina, which isn’t bad, though I was hoping for more progress.

Medina, now 22, split the season between High-A Hudson Valley and Double-A Somerset, and threw 106.1 innings with a 3.39 ERA (4.24 FIP) and 29.5% strikeouts and 13.3% walks. He went from 37.6% strikeouts and 17.5% swinging strikes in 32.2 High-A innings to 26.1% strikeouts and 12.9% swinging strikes in 73.2 Double-A innings. It’s a big jump in quality of competition.

The individual game performances were all over the place. Medina walked six in 4.1 innings in one start and five in two innings in another start. He also had 10 strikeouts and one walk in one start, 10 strikeouts and two walks in another, and 11 strikeouts and two walks in another. When he’s on, he’s great. When he’s not, it can be a serious meltdown scenario.

The stuff is as lively as ever. Baseball America’s scouting report (subs. req’d) says Medina still lives in the upper-90s and has a curveball that is a ”true wipeout pitch that can generate plenty of swings and misses,” plus a changeup that is effective because of the “conviction with which he throws it.” The control is still scattershot though. The last few years:

First 14 starts in 2019: 22.0 K% and 18.9 BB%
Last 8 starts in 2019: 35.2 K% and 8.4 BB%
Winter ball in 2020: 38.3 K% and 9.8 BB%
First 15 starts in 2021: 30.3 K% and 16.0 BB%
Last 7 starts in 2021: 28.0 K% and 8.2 BB%

Three years of alternating stretches of “he’s never going to figure it out” and “he’s finally figured it out!” On one hand, Medina doesn’t turn 23 until next summer, so he’s still so young and still has so much time to figure things out. On the other hand, 2022 is Medina’s final minor league option year. Come 2023, it’s big leagues or waivers. The clock is ticking.

I’ve likened Medina to Dellin Betances several times over the years because they’re similar live-armed guys with poor control. It took Betances a long time to learn serviceable control, but once he did, he was the best reliever in the sport for a half-decade. It didn’t click for Betances until 2013, when the Yankees moved him to the bullpen permanently at midseason.

Could the Yankees do the same with Medina? The key difference here is Medina will turn only 23 next year. Betances moved to the bullpen at 25 and that wasn’t even his last minor league option year. Players come from different backgrounds but the rules are a blanket policy that treat everyone the same, and they will force Medina to stick in the show at a younger age, which could harm his development.

I was hopeful the strong finish in 2019 and the dominant winter ball showing in 2020 were signs Medina had turned the corner for good, though it didn’t happen. He was great at times this year and terrible at others. With his options clock ticking, it might be time to stick Medina in the bullpen next season, and hope it clicks. He’s running out of time to figure it out as a starter.

Gomez reaches Low-A

Antonio Gomez, my No. 15 prospect coming into the season, reached Low-A as a 19-year-old catcher this season. He started the season in Extended Spring Training, tore up the Florida Complex League (.305/.416/.474 and 141 wRC+ in 29 games), then got humbled a bit following the move up to Low-A (.197/.310/.328 and 80 wRC+ in 17 games).

Gomez’s final numbers: .263/.375/.417 (117 wRC+) with 26.6% strikeouts and 14.1% walks and good exit velocity (105.8 mph max). The funny thing is the scouting report on his bat has flipped. Everything I read and heard last year pegged Gomez as a hit over power guy who mostly shot singles the other way to right field. Now he’s said to be more of a three true outcomes guy. Huh.

With Gomez, offense is secondary, because he’s a dynamite defender with an arm that rates as a straight 80 on the 20-80 scouting scale. Coming into this season he was seen as a potential Gold Glover with an average bat. Maybe now he can be a Gold Glover with 20-homer power? Based on the current state of catching, the latter guy would be a perennial All-Star (who knows what catching will look like when Gomez is MLB ready).

My guess is the pre-2021 scouting reports on Gomez were wrong, and he didn’t change his approach and morph into a three true outcomes guy this season as much as everyone got more looks at him and realized oh yeah, this is what he really is. As long as the glove remains elite, the offense will be secondary. If he can pop a few dingers rather than serve singles, great. I’m curious to see Gomez get a full minor league season under his belt in 2022. It will be revelatory.

3. Possible trade target: Paul DeJong. In the words of Brian Cashman, “shortstop is an area of need” this offseason, and the Yankees should just open their wallet to sign Carlos Correa or Corey Seager. They’re excellent and they’re only 27. Anytime you can get a star caliber player in his prime, you should jump on it, especially when you have the Yankees’ resources.

Things don’t always work that way though. In fact, the Yankees seem to solve their problems in one of two ways: blow the rest of the league out of the water (like Gerrit Cole) or try to dig up an under-the-radar player who could improve with certain adjustments (like Jameson Taillon). The middle road, the reliably good but not great player who costs a moderate amount of money, isn’t their thing.

So, if the Yankees don’t go big and sign Correa or Seager this season, it’s possible (if not likely) they will look to address shortstop with a cheap short-term stopgap, and hope Oswald Peraza or Anthony Volpe is ready to take over soon. The free agent stopgap options are yucky and include Freddy Galvis, Jose Iglesias, and Andrelton Simmons. Like I said, yucky.

On the trade market, Cardinals shortstop Paul DeJong stands out as a potential trade target. He lost his job to youngster Edmundo Sosa this season -- Sosa started 23 of the team’s final 37 games, then started the NL Wild Card Game as well -- and it seems likely St. Louis will commit to Sosa as their shortstop in 2022. He’s now coming into his own after spending years on prospect lists.

DeJong, 28, was the NL Rookie of the Year runner-up to Cody Bellinger in 2017 and an All-Star in 2019. His star has faded since then -- like a few too many Yankees, DeJong came up and had immediate success in the big leagues, then went backwards -- and now a younger player took his job. Does he make sense for the Yankees? Let’s dive in.

How’s his defense?

Let’s start with the easy stuff. DeJong is a legitimate shortstop and a very good defender based on both the numbers and the eye test. He makes routine plays look routine, and can make the spectacular highlight reel play too. Here’s some video and here are his career numbers:

DRS: +36 (6th among shortstops)
UZR: +24.2 (3rd among shortstops)
OAA: -9 (30th among shortstops)

Outs Above Average dinged DeJong earlier in his career (-18 from 2017-18), and has rated him more highly in recent years, including +5 in 2021. All indications are he is a solidly above-average defensive shortstop. This isn’t a second or third baseman faking shortstop, or a guy who will have to move off the position soon. DeJong is a legitimate defensive asset.

What about his bat?

From 2017-19, DeJong authored a .251/.318/.467 (108 wRC+) batting line with 74 homers in over 1,500 plate appearances. He went from 28.0% strikeouts and 4.7% walks in 2017 to 25.1% and 7.3% in 2018 to 22.4% and 9.3% in 2019. That’s nice, steady improvement. DeJong was sharpening his discipline as he gained experience. Here’s some video.

Rather than continue to improve, DeJong has taken a major step back the last two years. This year showed his down 2020 was not solely the product of the weird pandemic season. He got worse this year, and lost his job to Sosa. The last two seasons:

2020: .250/.322/.349 (87 wRC+) with 28.7 K% and 9.8 BB% in 174 PA
2021: .197/.284/.390 (86 wRC+) with 25.6 K% and 8.7 BB% in 402 PA

Yikes! Among the 210 players to bat at least 500 times the last two seasons, DeJong ranks 196th in AVG (.213), 190th in OBP (.295), 183rd in SLG (.378), and 192nd in wRC+ (86). He went from being a promising hitter with improving plate discipline to being one of the least productive hitters in the game in the blink of an eye. That’s troubling.

“I just feel like I’ve been fighting myself this whole time to try to get back to some arbitrary place,” DeJong told Katie Woo (subs. req’d) in September. “I think I’ve gone way too far in analyzing myself. That’s just part of my nature sometimes -- very observant, very analytical. It’s very easy to nitpick and lose the flow and the natural athletic ability. ”

Even at his best from 2017-19, DeJong was a league average exit velocity guy who topped out around 110 mph. He hit 30 homers in 2019 and I think he may have gotten too caught up in trying to hit for power. From 2017-19, DeJong had a .292 BABIP and an 11.7% swinging strike rate. From 2020-21, it was a .254 BABIP and a 13.6% swinging strike rate.

DeJong has hit more BABIP killing pop ups the last two years, so that and the increase in swing-and-miss is what leads me to believe he started selling out for power. We’ve kinda seen that with Gleyber Torres. Torres hit 38 homers in 2019, and there have been times in the two years since where he gets big with his swing and is obviously trying to hit for power.

If this is what happened with DeJong -- again, I’m only guessing here -- then how confident are the Yankees they will be able to coach it out of him? (I guess they would have to hire new hitting coaches first to answer that question.) Whatever the issue, the team that trades for DeJong would have to feel confident they can fix him, and get him back to being at least a league average bat.

I should note that, even at his best from 2017-19, DeJong was essentially a dead pull hitter who showed all his exit velocity in that direction. Look:

2017-19 pull: 89.3 mph average and 111.7 mph max
2017-19 oppo: 83.6 mph average and 107.4 mph max

2020-21 pull: 89.0 mph average and 109.5 mph max
2020-21 oppo: 81.6 mph average and 106.7 mph max

DeJong’s power is almost all to the pull field, so as a right-handed batter, his strength plays to the big part of Yankee Stadium, not the short right field porch. Even if you get this guy back to where he was earlier in his career, his strengths as a hitter don’t match up well with the ballpark. That is suboptimal. Not a dealbreaker, necessarily, but suboptimal.

There isn’t much baserunning value here -- DeJong will go first-to-third, etc. though he’s not a stolen base threat -- so his offensive value is tied up almost entirely in his bat, and his bat needs to be fixed. This is a reclamation project. Not a young up and comer you hope takes the next step, or an established guy coming off productive seasons. He’s a project.

What’s his contract?

The Cardinals wasted no time locking DeJong up. He was runner-up to Bellinger in the 2017 NL Rookie of the Year voting, and in Spring Training 2018 they signed him to a six-year contract worth $26M. The deal includes two options. Here’s what’s left on that contract:

2022: $6M
2023: $9M
2024: $12.5M club option ($2M buyout)
2025: $15M club option ($1M buyout)
Luxury tax hits: $4.3M in 2022 and 2023, $11.5M in 2024 if the first option is picked up, $14M in 2025 if the second option is picked up

The cheap years are over and DeJong is now in the years where his salary exceeds his luxury tax hit. That would appeal to the Yankees, who can keep their luxury tax payroll down and not incur any additional penalties, even if it costs a little more in actual salary. St. Louis is nowhere close to the luxury tax threshold, so the actual salary matters more to them.

The Cardinals have an unusual payroll situation. Carlos Martinez and Andrew Miller come off the books this winter, though they have to start paying Nolan Arenado next year (the Rockies paid him this year), and they’ve already signed Adam Wainwright and Yadier Molina to new contracts. Those two cost them $17M combined in 2021. In 2022, they will cost $27.5M. Then there’s arbitration raises. The Martinez and Miller savings are already spent.

Payroll has held steady in the $160M range since 2018. It hasn’t moved upward at all, and the Cardinals already have about $148M on the books for 2022 between guaranteed contracts and projected arbitration salaries. That covers 13 roster spots, so unless payroll goes up for the first time in four years, they have about $12M to fill out half a roster. Won’t be easy.

Trading DeJong to clear payroll would be an obvious way for the Cardinals to give themselves a little financial wiggle room. He’s making decent money, his production is waning, and Sosa has already taken over as the starting shortstop. The Cardinals don’t have to figure out how they would replace DeJong. He’s already been replaced. He’s expendable.

What will it take to get him?

Two (but possibly four) years of a declining former All-Star? And there may be a financial component where the player’s current team is worried about clearing payroll as much as (or even more than) they are about getting the most possible talent in return? Not many players who fit that description get traded, but he’s a familiar recent example:

Yankees get: Starlin Castro
Cubs get: Adam Warren and Brendan Ryan

Ryan was included in the trade as a salary offset -- he picked up his $1M player option a few weeks prior to the trade, then Chicago released him immediately -- so it was essentially Castro for Warren. Starlin’s performance had slipped, though he was still young enough that you could talk yourself into him being more productive with a change of scenery, kinda like DeJong.

The key difference is Castro had four more guaranteed years on his contract (plus a club option for a fifth year) whereas DeJong only has two more guaranteed years. The escape hatch comes much sooner with DeJong. This is kinda in the ballpark though. Castro was a name player who had been pushed down his former team’s depth chart, and the Yankees bet on the talent.

The modern day equivalent to Castro for Warren would be what, DeJong for Chad Green? DeJong for Wandy Peralta? Maybe DeJong for Mike King seeing how King was in the same “good as a reliever but maybe he can start” bucket as Warren? The Yankees are pretty deep in the bullpen and if all it takes to get a shortstop is a reliever, then that’s an easy price to pay.

Does he make sense for the Yankees?

In the sense that he’s a legitimate shortstop and the Yankees need a shortstop, yes, DeJong fits. In the sense that he might just be a bad hitter now, in which case he’d be another strikeout heavy righty in a lineup of strikeout heavy righties, no, DeJong doesn’t fit. The money works and it shouldn’t cost an arm and a leg to get him, so that’s not a concern. It’s all about performance.

Here’s the thing though: unless the Yankees pony up for one of the top free agent shortstops, they’ll have to settle for a below-average hitter at the position. Shortstops who are good hitters and good defenders aren’t easy to find, and when they become available, they usually cost a lot. You can have offense or defense or affordability, but not all three. Best case is two of the three.

So, even though DeJong’s bat has gone backwards, I think he would make sense as a stopgap shortstop option over the free agents (Galvis, Iglesias, Simmons, etc.) and trade candidates (Nick Ahmed, Didi Gregorius, etc.) The defense is good, DeJong still has power (19 homers in 2021), and he’s not going to cost a ton. You can talk yourself into a rebound with a change of scenery too, though I don’t love doing that.

Again, the Yankees should just act like the Yankees and sign Correa or Seager. Get one of the very best players at a hard to fill position, and stop cutting corners. In the event they don’t do that and instead look at shorter term shortstop options, DeJong really is as good a bet as anyone available. Ultimately, they’re all some variation of the all-glove/no-bat profile.

4. Remembering a random Yankee: Jim Abbott. This week’s random Yankee comes by request and is a pitcher who had one of the most remarkable careers in baseball history. Here’s the random Yankee archive. You can find links back to everyone we've covered there.

Despite being born without a right hand, Abbott was a standout football and baseball player at his Michigan high school. He didn’t sign with the Blue Jays as their 36th round pick in 1985 and instead played three years at the University of Michigan. Abbott led the Wolverines to two Big Ten championships, and was named Big Ten Athlete of the Year in 1988.

The Angels selected Abbott with the No. 8 pick in the 1988 draft -- he was selected two spots before Robin Ventura and six spots before Tino Martinez -- and he was so highly regarded that he skipped the minors entirely. He made his pro debut in the big leagues in April 1989. At the time, Abbott was only the 15th player to skip the minors since the draft was implemented in 1965 (Garrett Crochet did it most recently).

As a 21-year-old rookie in 1989, Abbott made 29 starts with the Angels and pitched to a 3.92 ERA in 181.1 innings. That earned him a fifth place finish in the Rookie of the Year voting. As was the case throughout his time as an amateur, opposing hitters tried to bunt against Abbott often early in his career, attempting to take advantage of his disability.

“If they think that's a weakness, they will try to use it. I look at it as a fairly easy out,” Abbott told Steve Hummer in 1987. Abbott would normally rest his glove on his right forearm, slip it on after throwing a pitch, field the ball, hold his glove against his body with his right arm, then take the ball out and throw it with his left hand. With bunts, he’d often throw his glove down and field the ball barehanded.

Abbott spent four years in Anaheim’s rotation and was outstanding, pitching to a 3.49 ERA and averaging 211.8 innings per year. That includes a 2.83 ERA in 454 innings from 1991-92, which earned Abbott a third place finish in the 1991 AL Cy Young voting behind Rogers Clemens and Scott Erickson. The problem? The Angels finished third, fourth, seventh, and fifth those years.

The 1992-93 offseason featured a historic free agent class -- Barry Bonds and Greg Maddux, both only 27 at the time, were free agents that winter -- yet the Yankees struck out on all their top targets. Bonds went to the Giants, Maddux went to the Braves, David Cone went to the Royals, Doug Drabek went to the Astros, and Jose Guzman went to the Cubs.

"This one hurts," GM Gene Michael told Joe Sexton after Maddux signed his four-year contract with Atlanta. "He's the best one out there. I never thought I could say this, but he's a steal at $28M. He's a steal."

The Yankees set out to acquire two top starting pitchers that winter, so even before losing out on Maddux, Michael brought in Abbott in a four-player trade with the Angels. Three top prospects went to Anaheim on Dec. 6th, 1992: lefty Jerry Nielsen, first baseman J.T. Snow, and righty Russ Springer. It was a blockbuster, even with prospects not as touted as they are these days.

"We made what we thought was a significant offer to Abbott -- four years for $16M -- and we couldn't sign him," Angels GM Whitey Herzog told Sexton. "We're happy to have made the trade we did. The three players we got will all be on our Major League roster next year. Heck, I'd talked to Gene Michael more than I had my wife the last couple of months."

(Nielsen appeared in 10 games for the Angels in 1993 and was out of baseball by 1995. Snow and Springer both had long big league careers, though they only spent a few years with the Angels before being traded away.)

Four days after trading Abbott, the Yankees signed Jimmy Key to a four-year, $17M contract to overhaul the top of their rotation. The Yankees went 76-86 in 1992 (they haven’t had a losing season since) and they went into 1993 with Abbott and Key atop a rotation that also included Scott Kamieniecki, Bob Wickman, and random Yankee Sam Militello.

Key started Opening Day in 1993 and Abbott, then 25, started the second game of the season. He allowed three runs in seven innings in his debut, and took the loss after reliever John Habyan hung a slider that Albert Belle hit for a go-ahead two-run home run. Abbott allowed a double to begin the inning and Habyan allowed the inherited runner to score the go-ahead run.

"I thought the guy for Cleveland (Jeff Mutis) threw a pretty good ball game," Abbott told Jack Curry following the loss in his first game with the Yankees. "It's tough to hit in this weather. The Indians hit the ball a little bit better tonight."

Abbott’s first few months as a Yankee were up and down. He allowed at least six runs six times in his first 16 starts that season, though he also allowed no more than two runs six times. Abbott took a 4.29 ERA into the All-Star break, yet the Yankees were only a game behind the Blue Jays in a tightly packed AL East (the top four teams were separated by 1.5 games at the break).

"It seems like everyone in the American League has a chance to make the playoffs," Abbott told Curry after allowing two runs in 7.1 innings in his first career start against the Angels, his former team, on July 11th. "We're there. We're a breath from first place and we've played badly. You don't cry over the spilled milk. I think we can match up with anyone in the division."

After allowing seven runs in 3.2 innings in Cleveland on Aug. 29th, Abbott owned a 4.31 ERA through 26 starts. Six days later, against that same Cleveland team at Yankee Stadium, Abbott threw the franchise’s first no-hitter since Dave Righetti’s Independence Day no-hitter against the Red Sox in 1983. It had been over a decade. Here’s video of the final out.

"I did not know how to act out there. I didn't know whether to be supremely confident or supremely thankful. I guess it's a little bit of both,” Abbott told Jennifer Frey following the no-hitter. "... I'm thrilled to come out of that last start and pitch a game like this. It makes it doubly nice being in September and being in a pennant race."

Following the no-hitter, Abbott limped to the finish, allowing 20 runs in 29.2 innings in his final five starts. He finished his first season in pinstripes with a 4.37 ERA (95 ERA+) in 32 starts and 214 innings. It was a disappointment following those back-to-back sub-3.00 ERA seasons with the Angels. The Yankees went 88-74 that year, finishing seven games behind Toronto.

"It was between us," Abbott told George Vecsey about a meeting with manager Buck Showalter late in the season. “I really appreciated that talk we had. Buck is a great communicator, but he doesn't always have a lot of time, through no fault of his own. He took time out of his schedule. I've never been in the manager's office so much. I really respect the job Buck's done all year.”

That season the Yankees finished with their first winning record since 1988. The next step was returning to the postseason for the first time since losing the 1981 World Series to the Dodgers. They signed Terry Mulholland and went into 1994 with four lefties in the rotation: Abbott, Key, Mulholland, and random Yankee Bobby Ojeda (Melido Perez was the lone righty)

Following his disappointing 1993 season, Abbott was fantastic to begin 1994, and the Yankees were a powerhouse. He had a 2.76 ERA in 67.1 innings his first 10 starts, and at one point he allowed no more than two earned runs four times in a span of five starts. On May 20th, Abbott held a contending Orioles club to one run in seven innings.

"It's been as nice a time as I've had in a long time being on this team and on a team that's playing so well," Abbott told Curry following the start against the Orioles. "I'm just enjoying coming to the ballpark."

Alas, Abbott faded at midseason. Crashed might be more like it. Beginning on June 10th, Abbott allowed at least four runs in nine of his next 12 starts. In those 12 starts he pitched to a 6.19 ERA and opponents tagged him for a .304/.359/.537 batting line. After getting punished for six runs in 5.2 innings on Aug. 9th, Abbott owned a 4.55 ERA in 24 starts and 160.1 innings.

"I didn't get the job done in the sixth," Abbott told Curry after walking three Orioles and throwing a wild pitch in the sixth inning of that game on Aug. 9th. "I tried to hit the spots and I didn't hit them. I was trying to be too perfect."

Three days following that start against Baltimore, the MLBPA went on strike, eventually forcing the rest of the season and the World Series to be canceled. Despite Abbott’s fade, the Yankees were a dominant team in 1994, and they had the American League’s best record at 70-43 on the day of the strike. They were 6.5 games up on the Orioles in the AL East. A postseason berth was within reach.

"There's a lot of people here we don't know if we're going to see again in a Yankee uniform," Showalter told Mike Wise soon after the strike started. "That's a sobering thought. You don't know how many times quality players are going to pass your way and quality people are going to pass your way."

Abbott was among those who would never wear a Yankees uniform again. His contract was up after the season and he became a free agent. In his two seasons as a Yankee, Abbott posted a 4.45 ERA (98 ERA+) in 56 starts and 374.1 innings. The no-hitter was obviously his signature moment in pinstripes, otherwise he was solid more than spectacular.

The Yankees moved on and replaced Abbott by trading for Jack McDowell in Dec. 1994 (yes, teams made trades and even signed free agents during the strike). The strike ended on April 2nd, and three days later Abbott signed with the White Sox, then he wound up back with the Angels in a midseason trade. In 1996, Abbott went 2-18 with a 7.48 ERA with Anaheim. Oof.

Abbott retired following the 1996 season, though he made a comeback with the White Sox in 1998 (the Yankees were said to have interest in signing him). Abbott wrapped up his career with the Brewers in 1999 -- remarkably, he went 2-for-21 (.095) at the plate that year, with both hits coming off random Yankee Jon Lieber (here’s video) -- and retired after the season at age 32.

These days Abbott is a certified cool dude on Twitter, and he also does some motivational speaking. He finished his playing career with a 4.25 ERA (99 ERA+) in 1,674 innings in parts of 10 seasons, and banked roughly $13M in player contracts. Pretty incredible for someone born without a right hand. Incredible and inspirational.

“Obviously, missing a hand growing up played a big part in who I was and my drive and my ambition,” Abbott told Ron Morris in 2018. “From that, you can’t help but take away the idea that sometimes a little adversity, a little challenge in our lives can be the push that we need to find the strength and the resiliency inside of us, and really to win an appreciation for the other blessings that we have.”

5. Rapid fire thoughts. It has been more than two weeks since the Yankees parted ways with third base coach Phil Nevin and hitting coaches Marcus Thames and P.J. Pilittere, and we’ve heard nothing about the coaching staff search since. I wouldn’t read anything into that at all. Coaching searches never ever get as much attention as managerial searches. Two years ago the Matt Blake hire came out of the blue -- there were no reports he even interviewed -- and that’s how I expect things to go this time around. No rumors or reports at all, then one day the Yankees will drop a press release on us announcing they’ve hired these guys to fill those roles. The only thing I have to say about the coaching staff search is a) I expect the Yankees to hire someone they consider the hitting coach version of Blake (i.e. on the cutting edge of analytics and with a history in player development) to be the hitting coach, and b) I think the Yankees want to wrap this up fairly soon. Get the coaching staff locked in before all the top candidates go elsewhere, then focus on improving the roster with the input of those coaches. Dragging out a coaching search rarely leads to a positive outcome.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)