October 15th, 2021: Boone, Thames, Nevin, Correa, Arbitration Projections, Minor League Awards, Mailbag

It has been 10 days since the Yankees lost the AL Wild Card Game and we’re still waiting for the team to break its silence. This is the longest they’ve gone between the end of their season and the end-of-season press conferences in the RAB era. Never before did they go more than five days. I dunno. We’ll hear from the team soon enough. To today’s thoughts.

1. The latest on Boone (and the coaching staff). Hark, some news: Lindsey Adler reports the Yankees will not renew the contracts of hitting coach Marcus Thames, assistant hitting coach P.J. Pilittere, and third base coach Phil Nevin. Thames is the man, but after the season the offense just had, it was hard to see him (and Pilittere) staying. Someone was going to be scapegoated, and the hitting coaches were obvious candidates.

"They made a decision," Thames told Brendan Kuty yesterday. "I just hate that we didn't win a championship. But they want to go in a different direction, and I guess I wasn't the voice that they thought to get us over the hump."

Thames (and Pilittere) oversaw great offenses from 2018-20, but sometimes the approach that once worked no longer works, and change is necessary. Third base coaches have the most thankless job in baseball. They only get noticed when they screw up, and when you have a high profile screw up in an elimination game like Nevin, and you lead baseball in outs at the plate, yeah, the third base coach is going to take the fall.

“I love the players, love the relationships,” Nevin told Dan Martin. “It’s just frustrating that the game has changed and that’s not a priority to some new people in the game.”

As for Aaron Boone, earlier this week Buster Olney reported Hal Steinbrenner “seems inclined” to keep the manager. "He likes (Boone) and I don't think he blames him for what happened," Olney’s source said. Olney also mentioned the Padres as a potential landing spot for Boone, adding at least one person with San Diego brought up his name.

A few things about this. One, Boone returning has always been the most likely outcome. At no point have the Yankees given us reason to believe Boone was in danger. In fact, they’ve said the opposite, going out of their way to blame the players for their disappointing season. To wit:

• Brian Cashman, June 29th: “This is not an Aaron Boone problem. This is not a coaching staff problem.”
• Hal Steinbrenner, July 1st: “(In my) opinion, the majority of the responsibility -- whether it's the responsibility of inconsistent offense or bad baserunning, etc. -- that responsibility lies with the players. They're the ones on the field, right?”

Maybe the swift postseason exit changed their minds (see: Thames and Nevin being let go despite Cashman saying “this is not a coaching staff problem”). The Yankees are not the type to make knee jerk reactions or base major decisions on a single game though, or even a month of games. They are nothing if not methodical and it generally serves them well. 

Two, with all due respect, we have to consider the source. Not only does this report come from ESPN, Boone’s former employer, it comes from Olney, Boone’s former teammate on Sunday Night Baseball broadcasts. Just consider the Padres angle. Who benefits from it being out in public that San Diego might have interest in Boone? The answers are:

• Definitely Boone. If nothing else, it gives him leverage during contract talks.
• Definitely not the Yankees. It gives Boone leverage during contract talks.
• Maybe the Padres. If they want to interview Boone but can’t officially reach out until his contract expires after the World Series, this lets him know they’re interested, and he shouldn’t rush into anything with the Yankees.

To be clear, I don’t doubt the veracity of Olney’s report. He covered both the Yankees and Padres during his beat writer days, so he’s plugged in. It’s just that things get leaked to the media for a reason, and it’s not because people like giving MLB Trade Rumors traffic. Either the Padres are telling Boone they’re interested, or Boone is trying to build leverage against the Yankees as they work on a new contract (or both). Everything gets leaked for a reason.

And three, the longer this drags on, the more likely it is Boone returns. When a team fires a manager, they usually do it quickly rather than string everyone along for 10+ days. The Phillies spent two weeks mulling over Gabe Kapler’s future before firing him, but the Matt Klentak era Phillies are not to be emulated. If you need 10+ days to convince yourself you have the right man for the job, you don’t have the right man for the job.

That said, we don’t have to try too hard to come up with reasons why the Yankees would drag things out. For example (in order of likelihood, I think):

1. They’re waiting to see whether the Mets can convince Billy Beane to come run their baseball operations, in which case Bob Melvin may become available.
2. They’re waiting for the Astros to get eliminated so they can interview Dusty Baker (whose contract is up) or bench coach Joe Espada (a former Yankees coach).
3. They were waiting for the Brewers to get eliminated so they could seek permission to interview Craig Counsell (could be tied to president of baseball operations David Stearns leaving to join the Mets).

Yeah, I can buy those as reasons to wait (Melvin and Baker/Espada moreso than Counsell), but what would that mean for Boone? Does that make Boone the Plan B (or Plan C?), and the Yankees are stringing him along just in case that other stuff falls through? That would be kinda crummy. If you want to move on, then move on. Be decisive.

There were no postseason games Wednesday, so it was the perfect time (in MLB’s eyes) to announce major news*. Instead, nothing. Boone was at Yankee Stadium on Wednesday, and that could mean anything. He was cleaning out his office, he was there as part of the offseason organizational meetings, he forgot his phone charger. Who knows?

* The Cardinals fired manager Mike Shildt yesterday, the day of Game 5 between the Dodgers and Giants, and Mark Feinsand says MLB had to give St. Louis permission to make the announcement. They must have been really eager to get rid of Shildt, huh?

The Thames and Nevin moves are indications Boone will remain. If the Yankees were planning to make wholesale changes to the staff, they either would happen all at once, or Boone would have been the first to go. Teams typically don’t cut coaches loose and then let the manager go. I guess Boone could pull a Buck Showalter and leave rather than accept a coaching staff handed down from above, but I dunno. I guess we’ll find out.

If the Yankees were going to replace Boone, I think he would have been out already. Moving on from Thames and Nevin is the strongest indication yet the Yankees are bringing Boone back, albeit with a few new coaches. Bench coach Carlos Mendoza, pitching coach Matt Blake, and bullpen coach Mike Harkey seem safest. Everyone else is presumably on thin ice after their areas of responsibility (hitting, baserunning, defense, etc.) fell short this season.

At some point the Yankees will break their silence and acknowledge the disappointing season they just had, and make official any changes. Why they’re taking so long to do it, I don’t know, but I guess there’s no rush with the offseason still a few weeks away. Thames and Nevin (and Pilittere) are gone and maybe a few others will follow. All signs point to Boone remaining though.

2. The shortstop market. I have what might qualify as a problematic take: the Yankees should sign Carlos Correa. To be clear, I don’t think it’ll happen, mostly for money reasons. But the Yankees should sign Correa because he’s a superstar in his mid-20s, which is the same reason they should’ve signed Bryce Harper (what a screw up that was).

I’m not sure I need to list Correa’s bona fides but I will anyway. He turned 27 last month and he authored a .279/.366/.485 (134 wRC+) line with 26 home runs and better than average strikeout (18.1%) and walk (11.7%) rates this season, and he’s a career .277/.356/.481 (128 wRC+) hitter in over 3,000 plate appearances. That’s as a shortstop in his early-to-mid-20s.

Depending on your choice of WAR, Correa was either the best (+7.2 bWAR) or eighth best (+6.8 fWAR) position player in baseball this year. Any reasonable forecast would project Correa to be one of the best players in the game over the next 5-10 years, because that’s what he’s been since he arrived in 2015, and players who are this good this young tend to have special careers.

The Yankees need a shortstop and Correa is a franchise-caliber shortstop, ergo the Yankees should pursue him. He’s not an ideal fit as a right-handed batter, but I say get the superstar who turned only 27 last month, then build the rest of the roster around him. It’s easier to find a good lefty hitting first baseman or corner outfielder than a shortstop like Correa.

Now that that’s out of the way, let’s talk about the baggage, meaning the sign-stealing scandal. The Yankees are obviously angry about it and Correa was a key component of those Astros teams. For what it’s worth, the data says Correa received way fewer garbage can bangs than his teammates, but I don’t think it really matters in the court of public opinion.

The Yankees once signed Johnny Damon after he ripped the franchise’s soul from its body with his grand slam in Game 7 of the 2004 ALCS, though getting beat fair and square is different than getting beat by cheaters. Also, the Astros have been totally unrepentant. They never apologized, asked for forgiveness, anything. That only created more animosity.

I think the sign-stealing is worse than performance-enhancing drugs because, in theory, PEDs are a one-off. It’s one player cheating. The various sign-stealing scandals were a coordinated organization-wide effort. That’s pretty bad. One guy cheats, it sucks, but whatever. When an entire team hatches a plan to cheat and defraud fans, well, that’s going a bit too far.

Based on my experience, front offices and fans are willing to overlook a lot -- A LOT -- if a player can help the team win. What about the clubhouse though? The Yankees have been very vocal about the sign-stealing scandal, so what happens if you plop Correa in the clubhouse with all the players who’ve been calling him a cheater the last few years? It may not go over well.

Now that said, Aaron Judge told Matthew Roberson this last month: “You hear a lot about Story, Correa, Seager, Trea Turner, all those guys. I don’t know what we’re going to do next year.” Judge mentioned Correa by name. Brought him up on his own too. Does he do that if he and his teammates consider Correa persona non grata? Maybe. Am I reading too much into this? Definitely.

From an on-field perspective, the Yankees should sign Correa. 10 years, $350M or so. I’m not joking. He just turned 27, so a 10-year deal is appropriate, and I assume he’ll want to top Francisco Lindor’s contract (10 years, $341M). It ain’t my money. Pay him. Correa is a franchise player and they aren’t available often. This isn’t Alex Rodriguez circa 2001, but it’s close.

Off the field, things are a bit more complicated. I think the fans would ultimately be forgiving (as long as Correa performs) and the players would move on despite their sign-stealing anger. Me saying the Yankees should sign Correa is very low stakes because I don’t think it will happen, but damn do the Yankees need a player exactly like this.

3. 2022 arbitration projections. Earlier this week Matt Swartz and MLBTR posted their annual arbitration salary projections. Swartz’s model is generally very accurate, at least when coming off a normal non-pandemic shortened season. Last year’s projections were a bit of a mess. This year it’s back to the 162-game model and hooray for that.

The Yankees have 19 -- 19! -- arbitration-eligible players this winter. They won’t keep all 19 players, there are a few non-tender and trade candidates in there, though I don’t remember an arbitration class this large. It’s almost an entire roster. Anyway, let’s go through the projections and see what’s what. Let’s get to it.

Obviously safe

• Aaron Judge: $17.1M (third time, made $10.175M in 2021)
• Joey Gallo: $10.2M (third time, made $6.2M in 2021)
• Gio Urshela: $6.2M (third time as Super Two, made $4.65M in 2021)
• Gleyber Torres: $5.9M (second time as Super Two, made $4M in 2021)
• Jordan Montgomery: $4.8M (third time as Super Two, made $2.13M in 2021)
• Jameson Taillon: $4.7M (third time, made $2.25M in 2021)
• Chad Green: $4.1M (third time, made $2.15M in 2021)
• Jonathan Loaisiga: $1.7M (first time, made $595,800 in 2021)
• Clay Holmes: $1.0M (first time, made $650,000 in 2021)

These nine players will obviously be tendered contracts. Even if you’re frustrated and ready to move on from Gallo and Torres, the Yankees won’t non-tender them and let them walk away with no return. They’ll tender them contracts and trade them, if anything.

Judge’s projection is the second largest spit out by the model this year, trailing only Trea Turner at $19.8M (Turner is also heading into his final season of team control). Gallo’s projected to get a nice raise because he hits dingers and dingers pay. I’m a bit surprised the model has Taillon and Montgomery both more than doubling their salaries, but whatever. Good for them.

As a reminder, service time matters for arbitration. Players with three years of service time are compared to other players with three years of service time, etc. Loaisiga can’t use Green as a salary comp and say “I was better than him this season, I deserve more” because they’re in different service time classes. Anyway, these nine will be tendered. Next.

Probably safe

• Domingo German: $2.1M (first time, made $619,695 in 2021)
• Wandy Peralta: $1.7M (third time as Super Two, made $925,000 in 2021)
• Kyle Higashioka: $1.2M (first time as Super Two, made $594,000 in 2021)
• Tyler Wade: $700,000 (first time, made $603,300 in 2021)

I think all four players here will be tendered, though you can talk yourself into there being a tiny smidgen of doubt with each. German is a serviceable back-end starter/swingman type, and those guys aren’t too hard to find. Peralta is a nice middle innings lefty who can fill-in as a high leverage reliever when necessary, though the Yankees are deep in the bullpen and could save some money there. Wade is whatever. Fast, but neither expensive nor good.

Pitch-framing is Higashioka’s only real skill at this point, and with the gap between the best and worst framers shrinking, it’s not as valuable as it once was. Of course, Higashioka has Gerrit Cole in his corner, so his job is almost certainly safe. Otherwise finding a different all-framing backup catcher who doesn’t cost seven figures could’ve been in the cards. I think these four guys are all safe. They just aren’t stone cold locks like the previous nine guys.

Ex-core members

• Gary Sanchez: $7.9M (third time, made $6.35M in 2021)
• Luke Voit: $5.4M (second time as Super Two, made $4.7M in 2021)
• Clint Frazier: $2.4M (second time as Super Two, made $2.1M in 2021)
• Miguel Andujar: $1.7M (first time, made $639,000 in 2021)

This is the most interesting tier, and by interesting I mean sad, because these four dudes were all supposed to be long-term core pieces. Instead, they’ve regressed and gotten hurt and played their way out of town. The relatively small projected raises reflect their statuses as reclamation projects (Gary’s homers and past All-Star Game selections lead to his projected raise).

I’m pretty sure the Yankees are done with Sanchez at this point, especially if they bring back Aaron Boone, who obviously doesn’t trust him. Boone benched Gary only 60-something plate appearances into the season, and when push came to shove down the stretch, Higashioka was behind the plate more often than not. Hard to see the Yankees trying that marriage again.

The question is will the Yankees find a trade partner for Sanchez, or will they non-tender him? The non-tender deadline is Dec. 2nd, though the Collective Bargaining Agreement expires Dec. 1st, so who knows. The Yankees will spend the next seven weeks shopping Gary. Catching is so, so bad these days. My guess is they’ll find a trade partner and get something in return.

Andujar, Frazier, and Voit will be a harder sell on the trade market. They were all hurt this year, they didn’t hit much when healthy, and they’re bad defenders who are essentially positionless. What’s the market for players like that? It’s ain’t great. As I wrote earlier this week, I think the Yankees shop all three and ultimately non-tender them if nothing comes together.

Non-tender candidates

• Lucas Luetge: $1.1M (first time, made $600,000 in 2021)
• Tim Locastro: $700,000 (first time, made $589,100 in 2021)

Given the small salaries, Locastro and Luetge are potential 40-man roster casualties more than potential payroll busters. Luetge was great this season. He also came out of nowhere and will turn 35 in Spring Training, and hitching your wagon to out-of-nowhere relievers in their mid-30s usually doesn’t work out well. I don’t think Luetge will be among the first 40-man cuts, but he’s not locked into his roster spot either (he might even have trade value).

In an alternate universe somewhere keeping Locastro as a fourth outfielder makes sense. The 40-man is tight though, and he’s also a soon-to-be 30-year-old whose entire game revolves around his legs and his speed, and he’s coming off a major knee injury. Not great. The Yankees might even be able to bring Locastro back on a minor league deal with a nice Triple-A salary. Ultimately, I think he’s gone. The Yankees need the 40-man space.

2022 payroll outlook

Unless the Yankees do something unexpected to cut payroll (i.e. trade Judge), payroll will go up next season and significantly. Here’s what’s on the books now:

• Guaranteed contracts (10 players): $128.6M
• Arbitration-eligibles (19 players): $80.6M
• Rest of 40-man roster: $2M (estimated)
• Player benefits: $16M (estimated)
• Total: $227.2M

The 10 players with guaranteed contracts: Zack Britton, Aroldis Chapman, Gerrit Cole, Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, DJ LeMahieu, Rougned Odor, Darren O’Day, Luis Severino, and Giancarlo Stanton. Odor is free and Gardner and O'Day could be gone, though the Yankees will carry a small luxury tax charge for them either way. Britton will miss next season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, so he’s not part of the active roster. The Yankees have to pay Britton and his replacement.

The Yankees won’t keep all 19 arbitration-eligible players. At minimum, Locastro is gone. I think it’s more likely Andujar, Frazier, Locastro, Sanchez, and Voit are all gone, in which case we’re at $62.5M for 14 arbitration-eligible players. Replace those guys with league minimum players and the Yankees are still looking at something like $215M already on the books for next season. I won’t call it impossible, but keeping payroll in the $210M range next year is improbable.

Next offseason will be the great payroll exodus. After next season Britton, Chapman, Gallo, Green, Judge, Taillon, Sanchez, and Severino all become free agents. Severino has a $15M club option and maybe the Yankees keep him, otherwise that’s $85.5M in contracts and projected arbitration salaries off the books. You know what that means, right? Prepare yourself for another luxury tax reset in 2023.

4. 2021 minor league awards. The minor league regular season and postseason are finally over. The Yankees did not have an affiliate win a championship this year, though the system had the second best record (327-207) and run differential (+703) in the minors, trailing the Rays. The farm system run differential leaderboard is pretty wild:

1. Rays: +918
2. Yankees: +703
3. Mariners: +393
4. Dodgers: +385
5. Red Sox: +363

Each year around this time I like to look at the farm system and hand out awards for the just completed season. This is not a top prospects list. It's an acknowledgement of the players who had the best seasons regardless of prospect status. So without further delay, here are the 2021 RAB Minor League Awards.

Player of the Year: Anthony Volpe

2021 stats: .294/.423/.604 (170 wRC+), 27 HR, 33 SB, 9.7 BB%, 15.2 K% (109 G at A-/A+)

The only choice, really. Volpe was the best player in the farm system this season, hands down, and he was one of the top performers in the minors overall. So much so that he was in the mix for Baseball America’s Minor League Player of the Year Award, though it went to Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals. Among the 377 players with at least 400 minor league plate appearances this season, Volpe ranked fourth in OBP, second in SLG, and first in wRC+ (by six points!). He was also one of only three minors leaguers to go 25-25, and his swinging strike rate (8.6%) was nearly half that of Witt (14.3%) and Brewers outfielder Joey Weimer (15.6%). The case can be made Volpe is the best combination of power, speed, and contact in the minors. He is an easy call for my Player of the Year award.

Pitcher of the Year: Ken Waldichuk

2021 stats: 3.03 ERA (3.71 FIP), 36.0 K%, 11.3 BB% (110 IP at A+/AA)

The Pitcher of the Year field was pretty wide open this season. Hayden Wesneski and Randy Vasquez were right there with Waldichuk, so was Matt Krook, though Waldichuk gets the nod because of his superior strikeout rate and superior ability to limit hits in general. Waldichuk’s 163 strikeouts were fourth most in the minors and his 36.0% strikeout rate was third best among the 155 pitchers with at least 100 minor league innings. Also, while there’s a disconnect between the ERA and FIP, Waldichuk had a top 20 ERA in the minors this year. It’s not nothing. I wouldn’t argue with Wesneski or Vasquez here, or even Krook, but I’m going with Waldichuk because he was one of the top strikeout artists in the minors in 2021.

Hitter of the Year: Oswaldo Cabrera

2021 stats: .272/.330/.533 (130 wRC+), 29 HR, 21 SB, 8.0 BB%, 24.7 K% (116 G at AA/AAA)

For the sake of variety, I don’t double up on the Player of the Year as the Hitter (or Pitcher) of the Year, otherwise Volpe would be the obvious choice here. Cabrera, like several others in the system, returned from the lost pandemic season a much stronger player and with more power, leading to a career high 29 homers. 29 homers in 116 games in 2021 after hitting 22 homers in the first 412 games of his career. Cabrera tore up Double-A, socked five homers in nine games in a Triple-A cameo late in the season, and his 249 total bases tied Volpe for ninth most in the minors. High end power production at the upper levels of the minors is a good way to take home Hitter of the Year honors.

Breakout Player of the Year: Anthony Volpe

2021 stats: .294/.423/.604 (170 wRC+), 27 HR, 33 SB, 9.7 BB%, 15.2 K% (109 G at A-/A+)

Another easy call with Volpe. He wasn’t just the biggest breakout player in the Yankees system this year, he was one of the biggest breakout players in the minors overall. Baseball America’s 2021 prospect rankings tell the story of Volpe’s ascent:

• Spring Training: No. 14 prospect in the No. 18 system
• Midseason: No. 86 on top 100
• End of season: No. 22 on top 100

It’s not often a recent first round pick can be considered a breakout player after his first full pro season, though Volpe qualifies. There was some skepticism surrounding his selection given the publicly available draft prospect rankings and the team’s tendency to "over-draft" players lauded for their makeup. Volpe more than lived up to his draft slot in first full pro season. He looks like a player who should’ve gone in the top five.

Best Pro Debut: Austin Wells

2021 stats: .264/.390/.476 (135 wRC+), 16 HR, 16 SB, 15.1 BB%, 24.9 K% (103 G at A-/A+)

The pickings are slim here. The Yankees made only three picks in the five-round 2020 draft (one of whom has already been traded), very few of their 2021 draftees saw a meaningful amount of playing time after signing (blame the elimination of the short season leagues), their 2019-20 international signing class was essentially one player (Jasson Dominguez), and their 2021 international signing class didn’t get much playing time. So, Wells it is almost by default. He did what a first round college bat should do against Single-A competition, though I caution you not to read much into the 16 steals (in 16 attempts!) as evidence he is a speedster. We can attribute those to the pro-base stealer rules MLB tested at both Single-A levels this season. Still, a fine pro debut for Wells.

Comeback Player of the Year: JP Sears

2021 stats: 3.46 ERA (3.15 FIP), 32.8 K%, 7.0 BB% (104 IP at AA/AAA)

Didn’t every player technically make a comeback following the lost pandemic season? Anyway, Sears originally came over from the Mariners in the Nick Rumbelow trade in Nov. 2017 and injuries limited him to 102.2 innings from 2018-19. The lost season gave Sears, a southpaw, more time to get healthy and work on his mechanics, and he returned this year with a few extra ticks on his analytics-friendly fastball -- “I don’t look at spin rate as much as I look at my break-z and my z-deception,” Sears told David Laurila in July -- and a sharper breaking ball. The result is the second highest strikeout rate among pitchers with 100 innings at Double-A and Triple-A. Matt Sauer’s return from Tommy John surgery was a bit bumpy this year, which is not unusual post-elbow reconstruction, and it was enough to give Sears the edge for this award.

Most Disappointing Player: Deivi Garcia

2021 stats: 6.85 ERA (6.72 FIP), 22.2 K%, 15.6 BB% (90.2 IP at AAA)

The opportunity was there for Deivi to, at minimum, pitch well in spot starts this season and put himself in the mix for the 2022 rotation spot. At best, he could have claimed a 2021 rotation spot outright when Corey Kluber went down, or when the various COVID outbreaks struck. Instead, Garcia badly regressed in Triple-A (both the numbers and his mechanics), posting his highest walk rate since rookie ball and a ghastly 2.08 HR/9. Deivi ranked fifth in the minors in walks (68), and among the 547 minor leaguers with at least 70 innings, he had the seventh highest walk rate and the 15th highest home run rate. The good news is Garcia is still only 22. The bad news is 2021 was a disaster season that saw his prospect stock and standing in the organization diminish greatly. He is now a reclamation project.

Lifetime Achievement Award: Brody Koerner

2021 stats: 3.39 ERA (4.18 FIP), 19.7 K%, 7.1 BB% (77 IP at AAA)

Originally a 17th round pick out of Clemson in 2015, Koerner’s climb up the minor league ladder included parts of two seasons in Low-A, parts of two seasons in High-A, parts of three seasons in Double-A, and parts of three seasons in Triple-A. At various points during that climb he worked as starter, worked as a reliever, was regarded well enough to be sent to the Arizona Fall League, and was enough of an afterthought that he had to go to the Dominican Winter League to pick up innings.

Koerner opened this season in the Triple-A Scranton rotation and his sticktoitiveness was finally rewarded this August, when the Yankees called him up during a COVID outbreak. On Aug. 3rd, Koerner made his MLB debut, throwing two innings in a blowout win over the Orioles (video). He spent 23 straight days on the active roster but only pitched twice (he threw a scoreless inning against the Twins on Aug. 20th) before returning to Scranton for the stretch run.

“It’s been a whirlwind to be honest with you. The last 24 hours have been crazy. It culminated with being able to pitch in Yankee Stadium. It’s a blessing from God for sure,” Koerner said after making his MLB debut (video). “It was awesome. It was a lot of fun. That's what you dream of when you're a little kid when you start playing when you're five years old.”

In parts of six minor league seasons (not counting the lost pandemic year, which Koerner spent at home because he wasn’t invited to the alternate site), Koerner has posted a 3.84 ERA with a middling 17.5% strikeout rate in 450 innings spread across 67 starts and 51 relief appearances. The soon-to-be 28-year-old has never appeared on a prospect list, though he grinded through it for close to a decade, and was rewarded this year with a month in the show. Pretty cool.

(Koerner elected free agency this past weekend. I have no idea what adding him to the 40-man roster then dropping him two days later was about a few weeks ago, but because it was the second time he’d been removed from the 40-man, it allowed him to elect free agency after clearing waivers.)

5. Rapid fire thoughts. According to Buster Olney, the qualifying offer has been set at $18.4M this offseason. It is the average of the top 125 salaries in baseball, and last year it was $18.9M, so the top salaries came down again (the qualifying offer value declined in 2019 too). That ain’t good with contentious Collective Bargaining Agreement talks underway. Anyway, the Yankees don’t have any qualifying offer candidates this offseason, so the $18.4M doesn’t matter to them. Anthony Rizzo is not eligible because he was traded midseason, so it’s only Corey Kluber, Brett Gardner, and Darren O’Day should the latter two decline their player options. No extra draft pick(s) next year … And finally, Rob Arthur (subs. req’d) did the research and found spin rates began to tick up later in the season, following the foreign substance crackdown. “Hard for me to believe it has recovered this much without pitchers going back to the Spider Tack (or related substances),” Arthur writes. This isn’t too surprising, is it? The sticky stuff checks aren’t rigorous (the umpires give a cursory check of the glove, hat, and belt bucket, and that’s it), so it was only a matter of time until pitchers found a way around them. Seems like whenever a new rule dependent on umpires is put in place, enforcement begins to lag after a few weeks. Remember when hitters had to stay in the batter’s box? Like that. The umps just give up after a while.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Shane asks: He’s been hurt, A LOT, but if the Yankees don’t sign a free agent SS, how do you feel about Adalberto Mondesi? What type of trade package would it take to acquire the switch hitting SS?

Adalberto is Raul’s kid (he’s gone by Raul Jr. at times) and he is a man of extremes. He’s one of the fastest players in baseball according to Statcast and the eye test, he posts power hitter exit velocities, and his defensive numbers are great. Mondesi also never walks (career 4.4%) and frequently strikes out (career 29.9%). His career .249/.283/.419 (81 wRC+) line tells a story.

Mondesi is only 26, so there is still room for growth (in theory). The problem, as Shane said, is the injuries. Mondesi is hurt all the time. This year it was oblique and hamstring problems. In 2019 it was his hamstring, in 2018 it was his shoulder, and in the minors it was back problems. From 2019-21, Mondesi played in only 271 of 546 possible games, or 49.6%.

Last month Royals GM Dayton Moore was asked whether the club could continue to rely on Mondesi given his injuries, and Moore’s response was a big yikes (via Alec Lewis):

“No. You can’t. We love Mondi to death. They’re different situations, but when we were putting our team together in the early days, we put the team together as if Zack Greinke may not be a part of it. We just didn’t know. And if he is, it’s a bonus. So when you look at Mondi, we’re going to expect him to be healthy. We’re going to be positive about that. But he’s proven that it’s just not, he just hasn’t been able to do that. When we put this team together, it’s like, ‘Holy cow, if Mondi is healthy, it’s going to be really exciting and really powerful in a lot of ways. Defensively, offensively, speed-wise.’ There’s a lot he can do. But we’re learning we’re going to have to manage his workloads in a way to where he may not be a guy who can play more than 100 games a year in a best-case scenario. Hopefully, he exceeds expectations, but as somebody who is responsible for putting together a 26-man roster, we’ve got to look at ways to supplement and perhaps be more balanced as if he’s not a part of it. And if he is, that’s great. We’re not going to release him. We’re going to continue to stay with him, obviously. But we’ve got to make sure we put that roster together in a way that certainly protects him.”

The GM saying an exciting young player “may not be a guy who can play more than 100 games a year in a best-case scenario” ain’t good! Credit to Moore for the honesty, but geez, he just told the world they don’t think Mondesi can stay healthy, and torpedoed his trade value. You can’t expect someone to pay full price once you admit that publicly.

The Yankees overhauled their training staff two years ago and they did a good job keeping their frequently injured players healthy this season (Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, etc.). Do the Yankees trust their staff enough to keep Mondesi on the field? His injuries are all muscle pulls, it’s not one chronic injury that keeps flaring up (like Luke Voit’s knee).

I like the idea of trading for Mondesi in vacuum -- he’s a flawed player given the OBP but I like betting on high-end talent -- but I’m not sure he can be the solution at short for the Yankees. They need someone they can count on to play shortstop every single day. Not someone who will necessitate 80-something games of Tyler Wade or Andrew Velazquez.

Mondesi has played some second and third base. Could the Yankees use him as a super utility guy who plays four times a week? That could be something. Nicky Lopez established himself as an everyday player this year and Kansas City has top shortstop prospect Bobby Witt Jr. coming, so they might be willing to part with Mondesi. He’s about to get bumped down the depth chart.

Mondesi only has two years of team control remaining, so he’s not a long-term buy. That said, if he does well, retaining him long-term is always a possibility. A year and a half of Adam Frazier fetched a team top 10 prospect and two non-top-30 prospects. Does Luis Medina and two lower level guys get you two years of Mondesi? That's probably too much given the year Frazier had and Mondesi’s injuries.

I wouldn’t trade for Mondesi with the idea of making him the everyday shortstop. The injuries tell us he can’t hold up in that role. As a super utility guy though (effectively replacing Wade)? I like it. And if Mondesi plays well and forces his way into the lineup more often, great! There’s a lot of upside here. A lot of risk too, but also All-Star upside should the training staff work some magic.

Lucas asks: Does Gallo start a package that could end up landing Cronenworth? He seems like the exact kind of player we need to start diversifying the lineup. I'm sure taking Hosmer's money back would lessen the cost; but, that seems like a nonstarter given how (below) average he's been and how many years are left on his contract.

The Padres have quietly overhauled their front office the last few weeks and apparently the folks who pushed to acquire Jake Cronenworth are no longer with the team. Cronenworth was not a GM A.J. Preller guy, so maybe he’s more willing to trade him? Who wouldn’t want a 27-year-old who can play any infield position and is a contact heavy .271/.343/.464 (118 wRC+) hitter in the big leagues? I’d love that guy on the Yankees (and the Padres should just keep him).

Preller loves Joey Gallo and over the summer Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d) reported San Diego was willing to discuss just about anyone, including top prospects Luis Campusano and MacKenzie Gore, to get him. I’m sure that interest lingers, and the Padres are overloaded with infielders but short on outfielders. Cronenworth for Gallo is a reasonable framework, though the Yankees would have to kick in more because it’s one year of Gallo for four of Cronenworth.

The Yankees need a lefty hitting first baseman but Eric Hosmer’s a hard no for me. He has four years and $60M remaining on his contract and he’s just not good anymore: .264/.323/.415 (99 wRC+) over his last 2,000 plate appearances. Imagine spending $30M a year to have Hosmer and DJ LeMahieu on the right side of your infield the next four years? Oy vey. Here are a few other possible Padres salary dump candidates:

• Ha-Seong Kim: 3 years, $23M ($7M luxury tax hit). Star in Korea who didn’t hit as a part-time player in his first MLB season (70 wRC+). Good glove though.
• Wil Myers: 1 year, $23.5M ($13.8M luxury tax hit). Would be a stopgap left fielder next season to replace Gallo, though he’s another mediocre righty bat.
• Drew Pomeranz: 2 years, $20M ($8.5M luxury tax hit). Really good when healthy but he’s always having arm problems. Only 25.2 innings in 2021.

Gallo for Cronenworth, Myers, and Pomeranz? The Yankees could either keep Myers to play left field or eat money and trade him elsewhere, and sign a different stopgap left fielder. Then whatever Pomeranz gives you is a bonus. You’re essentially giving up Gallo and taking on $33M or so in dead money (across two years) to get four years of Cronenworth. The Yankees would come out way ahead in surplus value (Cronenworth’s production was worth over $35M in 2021 alone). They still might have to kick in a prospect to get that done.

A Gallo/Padres trade is a fun thought exercise because Preller is a huge fan and San Diego has plenty of interesting pieces, though Cronenworth seems unattainable. He’s too good and too cheap and under control too long to trade. He’d help the Yankees a ton -- in addition to the on-field production, Cronenworth plays with the sort of edge the Yankees lack -- no matter where they’d play him. I’d love to get Cronenworth. Not sure it’s realistic.

Dan asks: Given the Yankees shortage of lefty bats, and the potential vacancy at first base, is there any merit to the idea of acquiring Robinson Cano on a (very very very) buy low arrangement from the Mets to see if he can contribute anything at this point?  If the Red Sox can get away with bringing back Alex Cora, I can live with Cano's PED history.

Oh hell yes. Now that’s a fun mailbag question. This was me when I first read it:

Cano comes back on the Mets’ books next year and they still owe him $20.25M each of the next two seasons. I assume they’re going just to release him, but who knows? Maybe they keep him just in case he fails another test and is banned for life, effectively voiding his contract (I’m pretty sure they would still be responsible for his full salary in the event of another suspension after releasing him.)

Anyway, Cano turns 39 next week and he hit .315/.352/.544 (142 wRC+) during the shortened 60-game season. He can still rake. He was also probably juiced to the gills, so who knows? At this point, Cano has nothing to lose. He’s made his money, he’s won his ring, and his legacy is tarnished beyond repair. Why not keep using in that case? Test positive again and who cares?

The Yankees need a lefty hitting first baseman and Cano did play some first (and third) base with the Mariners in 2018. 14 games at first too, not one or two. His range at second is pretty much shot, so Seattle stuck him at first. Cano called playing first “really weird” but made at least one nice scoop during his Triple-A rehab stint following a hand injury.

If the Yankees can get Cano at the league minimum (after the Mets release him or even in a nothing trade), sure, why not. Put him at first. Adding Cano would be an indication the Yankees aren’t going all-out to win in 2022, so if they’re going to half-ass it and be mediocre, the least do it with players I enjoy watching. Give me Cano over Rougned Odor every day of the week.

There’s basically no chance this happens, obviously. The Yankees weren’t all that interested in retaining Cano when he became a free agent, and that was when he was a star in his prime. Now he’s a soon-to-be 39-year-old coming off a missed season because of a second failed performance-enhancing drug test. Even at a low salary, it ain’t happening.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)