October 12th, 2021: Offseason Lessons, 40-Man Roster Cleanup, Gallo

A week ago today the Yankees lost the AL Wild Card Game, and there has been radio silence since. No word on Aaron Boone’s future, no word on offseason surgeries, no word on anything. Usually the end-of-season announcements and press conferences come within 3-4 days of being eliminated. Crackpot theory: MLB doesn’t like teams announcing news during the postseason and stealing headlines away from the games themselves (which is totally understandable), so the Yankees are waiting for the off-day between the LDS and LCS to announce they’re moving on from Boone. I guess we’ll find out. Let’s get to today’s thoughts.

1. Lessons from this past offseason. Now that the Yankees are done for the season, we can say with certainty they did not have a good offseason last year. There’s no postseason magic coming to salvage things. I answered a mailbag question grading the offseason back in February. Here’s a piece of what I wrote:

Based on what we know right now, I’m going with a C. This is the sort of high variance offseason that could look like an A+ in about six months, or leave everyone wondering what in the world the Yankees were thinking. It’s hard to upgrade a roster that’s won more than 61% of its games the last three years, but the Yankees clearly needed rotation help this winter, and I can’t go any higher than a C given the significant injury risk of their top two rotation additions.

The pitching was excellent this year, but overall, a C sounds right, if not a little generous. Corey Kluber threw a no-hitter but also missed half the season. Jameson Taillon stayed mostly healthy but was really up and down. The Yankees are probably checking the return policy on DJ LeMahieu’s contract. Darren O’Day and Justin Wilson were net negatives.

Truth be told, the best moves the Yankees made last offseason were signing Nestor Cortes and Lucas Luetge. They were really good! But Kluber, LeMahieu, O’Day, Taillon, and Wilson gave the Yankees a combined +4.9 WAR, and I don’t think they spent all that money ($31M in 2021) and traded all those prospects (four for Taillon) to get roughly +5 WAR this year. That stings.

What lessons can we -- and the Yankees -- take from last offseason? Quite a few, it turns out. It wasn’t a good offseason and there are always lessons to be learned from mistakes.

There’s no such thing as a “must sign”

Well, that’s a bit untrue, because I’d say Gerrit Cole was a “must sign” two years ago. That was a rare case and a special player though. This past winter the Yankees held themselves hostage with LeMahieu. They did nothing and weren’t going to do anything until re-signing him, mostly because LeMahieu’s contract would eat up a lot of spending room under the luxury tax plan.

As a result, the Yankees missed out on several opportunities while waiting out LeMahieu, with the pitching market in particular moving on without them. The Lance Lynn trade stands out as exactly the kinda trade the Yankees should’ve made (prospects for a very good, very durable, very affordable starter), but he was off the board long before LeMahieu agreed to terms.

The Yankees missed out on a few things while waiting out LeMahieu and I imagine they also have buyer’s remorse. I don’t think they would admit that, but LeMahieu is already 33 and he went from hitting .364 in 2020 to slugging .362 in 2021, the first year of a six-year contract. They have to hope the sports hernia is to blame for LeMahieu’s slide, otherwise the Yankees already regret the contract they put their entire offseason on hold to sign last year.

No matter how well Anthony Rizzo fit in and no matter how great Max Scherzer would look next to Cole, there is no such thing as a “must sign” this offseason. No one who is worth putting your entire offseason on hold to acquire. There are alternatives available all over the field this winter (including the high-end shortstops!) and no reason not to seriously explore every last one.

Health is a skill

Alternatively, players who are good and healthy are preferable to players who might be good and might stay healthy, even if they cost more. With pitchers especially, health is difficult to predict, because even the most durable pitchers can break down at a moment’s notice. But past injury is the best predictor of future injury, and the Yankees still put their eggs in the past injury basket.

Shall I remind you of the 2021 Opening Day rotation? In order, this is the rotation the Yankees used to begin this season:

1. Gerrit Cole (amazing, at least when his hamstring is healthy)
2. Corey Kluber (one inning in 2020)
3. Domingo German (zero innings in 2020)
4. Jordan Montgomery (first full season following Tommy John surgery)
5. Jameson Taillon (zero innings in 2020)

Montgomery and Taillon held up as well as anyone could have hoped. Montgomery made every start (minus a COVID absence) and Taillon made every start the first five months, though the Yankees handled him very carefully, understandably. Taillon was routinely given extra rest between starts. That was smart, but it also put added strain on the rest of the staff.

Kluber missed almost the entire 60-game season with a shoulder injury a year ago, then missed three months with another shoulder injury this year. The Yankees had extra insight into Kluber’s health because he trains with Eric Cressey, who oversees their training staff, yet he got hurt anyway. German was a non-factor in the second half because his shoulder acted up too.

Perhaps I’m overrating durability given the club’s newfound ability to help pitchers level up. They survived the Kluber and German injuries because Cortes was excellent, and because Mike King and Luis Gil filled in capably. That said, King was much better in the bullpen, and Gil really shouldn’t have been in the big leagues. You need depth. You also don’t hope to have to use it.

We all love a good buy low candidate, it’s really easy to dream on those guys, but there’s also something to be said for reliability. Someone you can reasonably count on to stay healthy and productive without having to give him extra rest or worry whether this is the start his shoulder acts up again. Those guys generally cost more, but you’re the Yankees. You can afford it.

Don’t ignore the bench

Following LeMahieu’s sports hernia, the Yankees had to choose between Rougned Odor and Andrew Velazquez (and Tyler Wade) to start the Wild Card Game, and that is sort of amazing. Not in a good way either. How did one (1) injury lead to the mighty New York Yankees choosing between a Rangers castoff and an Orioles castoff in a winner-take-all postseason game?

Odor had the eighth most plate appearances on the Yankees this year (341!) and the Opening Day bench included both Brett Gardner and Mike Tauchman, who are essentially the same player. Gardner and Tauchman in meme form:

To their credit, the Yankees quickly realized carrying two lefty speed and defense outfielders on the bench isn’t a great idea, and they were able to turn Tauchman into the useful Wandy Peralta only four weeks into the season. They made the best of a bad (albeit self-made) situation.

Point is, the bench and the roster construction in general left a lot to be desired this year. Luke Voit got hurt in Spring Training and the backup plan was Jay Bruce, who was so washed he retired three weeks into the season. Odor was their most notable bench addition and that’s just sad. Others like Velazquez, Jonathan Davis, and Mike Ford didn’t move the needle.

The days of a stars lineup and scrubs bench are long gone. The Yankees are obsessive with rest, plus injuries are inevitable, making quality backups a necessity. In 2019, the Yankees got big time production from replacements like Gio Urshela and Cameron Maybin. They saved the season, truly. This year the lack of quality replacements played a role in sinking the season.

Building a quality bench isn’t easy. Rarely do free agents want to sign with the Yankees to be bench guys because the starting lineup is mostly set, and the free agents who do sign with an eye on a bench role are hangers-on like Bruce. You either have to grow your own bench players (like Wade) or trade for them (like Odor). The Yankees haven’t done well at either.

On the position player side, the team’s internal replacement level was awfully low this season. Aside from re-signing Gardner, their efforts to improve the bench and their depth were minimal. The Yankees signed a few guys to minor league contracts, jumped on Odor because of his $0 luxury tax hit ($0dor?), and that’s it. The bench and general depth can’t be ignored again.

Roster redundancy is real

As noted, Gardner and Tauchman were redundant and carrying both led to a crummy bench situation. We all saw how problematic the lineup became when the Yankees didn’t just load it up with righties, but loaded it up with similar righties. The majority struck out a bunch and they all were station-to-station. LeMahieu and Gleyber Torres (and Urshela) taking a step back only made it worse.

The Yankees eventually came around and made moves to balance the offense, specifically by adding Anthony Rizzo and Joey Gallo. But even then, Gallo brought another high strikeout bat, and contact can be a real issue for this team at times. The lineup was too right-handed, too high strikeout, and too station-to-station, and the redundancy led to an offense that was less than the sum of its parts. This was the master plan in Spring Training:

1. 2B DJ LeMahieu (righty)
2. RF Aaron Judge (righty)
3. CF Aaron Hicks (switch-hitter)
4. DH Giancarlo Stanton (righty)
5. 1B Luke Voit (righty)
6. SS Gleyber Torres (righty)
7. 3B Gio Urshela (righty)
8. C Gary Sanchez (righty)
9. LF Clint Frazier (righty)

I was totally cool with giving Frazier the left field job, but that was a mistake in hindsight, and not only because he didn’t hit. It was just the same look again. Despite a ballpark that rewards lefty power, the Yankees went all-in on righties susceptible to the sorta power stuff that is all around the league. They had no speed element either, so when the homers dried up, so did offense in general. Also, defense matters. Too many players in that lineup are negative defenders.

The Yankees recognized this at the deadline and brought in Rizzo and Gallo, though by then it was too late to really move up the standings. And even in the Wild Card Game, the Yankees still got chewed up by a power righty. I understood re-signing LeMahieu and going with Frazier, but last winter has proven to be a missed opportunity to reshape the lineup, create more offensive diversity, and improve defensively.

This offseason the Yankees have openings at first base and shortstop, and a case can be made they have openings in center field and at third base as well. There was no effort to diversify the attack last winter. The Yankees leaned into strike prone and station-to-station righties. Doing so again this winter would be a mistake, and I hope the trade deadline is an indication the Yankees realize it.

You’re not one move away

This is not a 2020-21 offseason lesson because the Yankees were pretty busy last winter. This is a 2019-20 offseason lesson. That winter the Yankees signed Cole (great!) and did nothing else. Cole was the only player they added to the 40-man roster from outside the organization. The Yankees won 103 games in 2019, then determined they needed an ace and nothing more.

When ownership and the front office look back at this window, the complacency should haunt them. They did nothing other than sign Cole two years ago, they sat on their hands at multiple trade deadlines, and twice in four years payroll was slashed to adhere to a fake salary cap. Maybe you make all the trades and spend all the money and lose anyway, that’s baseball, but not trying bothers me. The Yankees did not give themselves the best chance to win.

My fear this offseason is the Yankees will fire Aaron Boone and/or bring in a few new coaches, and call it an offseason. Sign a stopgap shortstop, take some low cost fliers, and bring back largely the same roster next season because they keep saying this should work, and they’re going to give it another chance to work. That’s my fear.

Boone and the coaches are part of the problem but not the problem. The roster needs work, quite a bit of it really, and changing the people calling the shots in the dugout won’t be enough to improve things next season. My worry is that, much like signing Cole and doing nothing else two years ago, the Yankees will change the coaching staff and do nothing else this year, because their underlying belief is this really is a championship core despite evidence to the contrary.

Stop throwing away your market advantage

I don’t think “cheap” is too harsh a word here. The Yankees haven’t had a payroll commensurate with their market size and revenues in years. Maybe this is what Boone meant when he said the “league closed the gap on us?"

Yankees payroll in 2005: $207.1M
MLB average payroll in 2005: $73.1M

Yankees payroll in 2021: $207.6M
MLB average payroll in 2021: $130.8M

That is despite a new ballpark (where every available inch has been sold for ad space), multiple new massive national television contracts, the BAMTech sale, etc. since 2005. Revenue has shot up but payroll has not. We’ll never know the exact numbers, though we can reasonably assume the Yankees spent a smaller percentage of revenue on player payroll in 2021 than in 2005. 

Yes, the Yankees had one of the highest payrolls in baseball this season (per Cot’s) ...

1. Dodgers: $262.1M
2. Yankees: $207.6M
3. Astros: $207.0M
4. Padres: $205.6M
5. Red Sox: $205.5M

… but having one of the highest payrolls in baseball (having the highest payroll in baseball) should be the bare minimum for the most popular sports franchise on the planet. The Yankees don’t get extra credit for having a high payroll. It should be expected.

The Yankees have to overhaul their roster this offseason and money is their greatest, most plentiful resource. You can only trade so many prospects, especially after trading a whole bunch of prospects at the deadline, and you can only trade away so much from your MLB roster. So, spend. The Yankees are an ATM. It’s time to stop accepting deposits only.

2. Trading Gallo. Joey Gallo’s first two months and change as a Yankee did not go according to plan. The Yankees surrendered four good (but not top) prospects to get him (and Joely Rodriguez), and were rewarded with a .160/.303/.404 (95 wRC+) line and 13 homers in 58 games. Gallo played good defense (dropped pop ups the final week aside) and all that, but the offensive impact wasn’t there.

Gallo was not a rental. That was part of his appeal. Gallo made $6.2M this year and his salary next year will approach $10M through arbitration. Given his underwhelming showing with the Yankees, I’ve already seen speculation the Yankees could (or should) move Gallo this winter. Recoup whatever value you can and trade him, and bring in a new left fielder. That kinda thing.

Let me first say I don’t think there’s any chance that happens. The Yankees are not the type to overreact to two bad months. Gallo is a good player. He is. He gets on base, hits homers, plays good defense, runs the bases well, etc. Even Gallo’s biggest fans will admit he’s a tough watch though. Speaking as a fan, baseball’s aesthetics have gotten much worse in this era of three true outcome ball, and Gallo is the most extreme three true outcomes player on the planet.

Being an eyesore and being a bad player are different things. Aesthetics aren’t a good reason to get rid of a good player, I don’t think. I enjoy winning above all. If the Yankees can look good while doing it, even better. That said, it’s fair to question Gallo’s fit in a lineup that is already so strikeout heavy. Here’s what I wrote about Gallo as rumors swirled prior to the trade deadline:

I think the good (lefty power, good defense, etc.) outweighs the bad (more strikeouts) and if the Yankees can get Gallo, do it, then work through the strikeout issue in the offseason. Yankees left fielders are hitting .228/.297/.360 (82 wRC+) this season and it’s not like they’ve been good defensively either. Gallo is a flawed hitter, no doubt, but he’s very good and would be a big net upgrade.

Well, the offseason is here, and it’s time to work through that strikeout issue. The Yankees had the sixth highest strikeout rate in baseball this season (non-pitchers only), and there are only so many ways to improve that. Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton aren’t going anywhere. Given the season the offense just had, the Yankees shouldn’t rule out any other possible moves.

Gallo has essentially maxed out his offensive skill set. He has hit the sixth most home runs (151) since becoming a full-time player in 2017, and over the last two years he has the fifth lowest chase rate in baseball (19.3%). Gallo has actualized the mammoth power potential he showed as a prospect, and his swing decisions are excellent. Among the very best in the sport.

At the same time, Gallo has by far the lowest in-zone contact rate in baseball the last two years (71.6%). No one else is below 76% and only seven others are below 80%. Gallo doesn’t strike out so much because he chases. He strikes out so much because he swings through pitches in the zone. Make a mistake and he’ll hit it a mile. Execute your pitch, and you’ll get him to miss.

Strikeouts are not just another out. I mean, they ultimately are, but that is a very primitive early days of sabermetrics way of thinking. Strikeouts are a function of plate discipline and feel for the barrel, two things conducive to being a productive hitter. Gallo definitely has the former and definitely does not have the latter. If the pitch doesn’t come into his swing path, he won’t make contact. He’s exhibited little to no ability to manipulate his swing.

Can you win with a player with swing and miss issues (swing and miss issues against pitches in the strike zone, specifically) this extreme? Sure. Can you win with multiple players like this in the lineup? Eh, probably not. You might bludgeon the Orioles in June, but when pitching staffs shrink in October and you see nothing but the other team’s best arms, this profile can be a problem.

As the Yankees reshape their offense this winter, cutting down on the strikeouts is a must. The Yankees had three players with a 27% strikeout rate bat at least 300 times this year (Stanton, Rougned Odor, Gary Sanchez), plus two others who were close (Judge, Gio Urshela), plus Gallo and Luke Voit, who were short on plate appearances but well north on strikeout rate. That’s a lot of exploitable swings.

Maybe swinging through so many pitches in the zone isn’t a big deal. After all, among those other seven players with a sub-80% in-zone contact rate are Shohei Ohtani (76.4%), Rafael Devers (78.7%), Bryce Harper (79.0%), and Fernando Tatis Jr. (79.2%). Those dudes are all really good. But look at the team level in-zone contact rates this year:

1. Rays: 81.5%
2. Tigers: 82.4%
3. Yankees: 82.6%
4. Braves: 83.1%
5. Cubs: 83.1%

Tampa makes up for their contact issues by doing so many other things well. When the Yankees play defense or run the bases or maximize platoons like them, we can overlook the strikeouts. The Tigers and Cubs stink, and the Braves are a good-ish team in a bad division. The Rays are the outlier. Otherwise that is not the company you want to keep offensively.

The Yankees should not trade Gallo just to trade him because he had two bad months and fans are frustrated. They should trade him only if they get a worthwhile return and only if they can replace him adequately. I think the Yankees must cut down on the strikeout pitfalls in the lineup, they need to give themselves a better chance against high level power arms, but it can’t be contact for the sake of contact. It has to be quality contact. They need more of that.

So, like everyone else on the roster, put Gallo on the market and see what comes along. Padres GM A.J. Preller is said to be obsessed with Gallo (they overlapped during their time in Texas), so maybe they make a big offer. Gallo is a good player who also shouldn’t be untouchable as the Yankees reshape their offense. That doesn’t mean they should give him away. There are worse things than having a 40-homer, 100-walk, above-average defender in the outfield, even if he hits .200 and strikes out 200 times.

3. 40-man roster cleanup. Over the next few weeks the Yankees will begin the process of cleaning up their 40-man roster, both for the offseason and next season. I think we collectively spend too much time sweating the last 2-3 spots on the 40-man, but managing the roster is important, and it’s something that has to be done. Exciting? Not usually. Necessary? Yup.

At the moment the Yankees have 47 players on their 40-man roster: 40 active and seven 60-day injured list. There’s no injured list in the offseason, so they have to pare it down to 40 players after the World Series, and really less than that so they can make moves and add players. Here’s what’s going on with the 40-man:

• 60-day injured list (7): Miguel Andujar, Zack Britton, Clint Frazier, Aaron Hicks, Tim Locastro, Darren O’Day, Luke Voit
• Free agent to be (5): O’Day (club/player option), Brett Gardner (club/player option), Corey Kluber, Anthony Rizzo, Joely Rodriguez (club option)
• Easily dropped from 40-man (4): Locastro, Greg Allen, Rob Brantly, Andrew Velazquez
• Other drop candidates (6): Andujar, Frazier, Chris Gittens, Lucas Luetge, Rougned Odor, Luke Voit

Yoendrys Gomez spent 71 days on the COVID list and did not count against the 40-man roster, though he was quietly activated last week, and apparently the Yankees had an open spot to accommodate him. Not gonna lie, I lost track of the 40-man situation during the COVID outbreak in August and didn’t realize they had a spot for him. Point is, Gomez is now active.

Activate the seven 60-day injured list guys and the Yankees are at 47 players on the 40-man roster. Kluber and Rizzo becoming free agents gets you down to 45. Cut Allen, Brantly, Locastro, and Velazquez, and you’re down to 41. Velazquez is a nice story and all, but he’s not someone who gets a 40-man spot all winter. Hell, he might be happy to sign a new minor league deal given the hometown Bronx kid thing. I guess we’ll find out.

How do the Yankees clear that final spot to get down to 40 players? How do they clear spots beyond that so they can protect players from the Rule 5 Draft and make offseason additions? Let’s talk it out.

Rodriguez’s option

In a vacuum, Rodriguez’s $2.5M club option is good value. He’s a top left-on-left matchup guy -- Joely has held lefties to a .200/.277/.267 (.248 wOBA) line with 32.1% strikeouts and 74.5% grounders in two years back from Japan -- and $2.5M is nothing. That said, his usefulness is limited by the three-batter minimum, and the Yankees aren’t short on bullpen options.

Option decisions are due three days after the end of the World Series and Rodriguez’s option is one of those “too bad we can’t wait to see how the market shakes out, because he’d be worth bringing back at that salary if nothing better comes along” situations. Alas, that’s not possible. My guess is the Yankees decline Rodriguez’s option to get their 40-man down to 40 players. As good as he is, Rodriguez isn’t irreplaceable. That’s really all there is to it.

O’Day’s options (plural)

O’Day’s contract includes a $1.4M player option, and if he declines that, the Yankees have a $3.15M club option with a $700,000 buyout. They will definitely decline that. O’Day turns 39 next week and is coming off his second major left hamstring surgery in three years. I’m not sure if he’s thinking retirement or what, but even if he is, doesn’t he have to pick up that player option and force the Yankees to release him? He’s entitled to that $1.4M. The Yankees agreed to it.

No matter what happens with the options, the Yankees will carry a $1.575M luxury tax charge for O’Day in 2021. The player option thing was fancy accounting to lower his luxury tax hit in 2021. They essentially spread his luxury tax hit across two years, and my guess is the Yankees did that with the willingness to release him should things go wrong. I think O’Day gets released (or unexpectedly declines the player option), pushing us down to 39 players on the 40-man.

Gardner’s options (also plural)

Similar to O’Day, Gardner’s contract includes a $2.3M player option and a $7.15M club option with a $1.5M buyout. His luxury tax hit is $2.575M in 2022 no matter what. Last week Gardner said “I hope that I'm back next season, but that's really not on my radar right now.” Not quite sure what that means, but there’s three possible outcomes here:

• Gardner picks up the player option and returns next season.
• Gardner picks up the player option and the Yankees release him.
• Gardner declines the player option and rides off into the sunset.

The Yankees aren’t picking up the club option and Gardner isn’t declining the option so he can test free agency and sign with another team. My guess is if Gardner picks up the player option and says he wants to play next season, the Yankees will bring him back, and that will be that. They need a center field capable fourth outfielder and that’s Gardner.

If Gardner decides to retire, I think he would pick up the player option and the Yankees would release him, and do it in a dignified way. I think the Yankees entered into this contract knowing it was functionally a one-year, $5.15M deal ($1M signing bonus plus $1.85M salary in 2021 plus $2.3M player option) that Gardner agreed to spread across two seasons to help with the luxury tax plan (of course, the Yankees could’ve said “do this or we won’t sign you”).

Again, the Yankees will carry a $2.575M luxury tax charge for Gardner no matter what, and I don’t think they’d blink twice about paying him $2.3M in real money next season to sit at home should he call it a career. That’s pocket change to this franchise and he’s been a damn good player for the Yankees. Call it a retirement gift.

As for the 40-man roster, I don’t think Gardner is in the O’Day/Rodriguez boat, in that he is at risk of having his option declined/being released simply to open a 40-man spot. If he wants to come back, the Yankees will (probably) bring him back, but if he wants to retire, the Yankees will allow him to make that decision on his own timetable, I think. He’s not a 40-man casualty.

What about Odor?

Odor should -- should -- be an easy 40-man casualty. He is under contract next season, though the Rangers are paying his $12M salary (plus the $3M buyout of his 2023 option), so he is a $0 player for the Yankees. Releasing Odor carries no financial ramifications … except the Yankees would have to pay someone else to fill his roster spot next year. Even the league minimum is more than $0. Odor is a free player and who doesn’t like free stuff?

The Odor situation will be telling. Hanging onto him beyond the Rule 5 Draft protection deadline (usually Nov. 20th) tells us the Yankees are at minimum considering carrying Odor on their 2022 roster, if not outright committed to carrying him. If they cut him to clear 40-man space before the Rule 5 Draft protection deadline, then we know the Yankees aren’t holding themselves to an artificial salary limit next year (or are at least willing to be more flexible with payroll).

I want to believe the Yankees will cut Odor like they cut Vernon Wells in 2013, a similar scrap heap pickup who had outlived his usefulness on the field but had another year to go on a luxury tax friendly contract, but I can’t say they will with any certainty. Odor should be an easy drop from the 40-man roster to get down to 38 players. I worry he won’t be.

What about Gittens?

Gittens really should be in the “easily dropped from 40-man” bucket. He punished Triple-A this season (.301/.440/.644 and 185 wRC+) and is an exit velocity monster, but he’s also a righty DH type who turns 28 in February. Those guys usually aren’t hot commodities, and if the Yankees lose Gittens on waivers, there’s always a John Nogowski or Will Craig type eagerly awaiting your minor league contract offer. The Yankees should not sweat dropping Gittens. He would get them down to 37 players on the 40-man, assuming Odor is gone.

Andujar, Frazier, and Voit

One way or another, the Yankees have to clear the righty hitting DH type logjam this offseason (that includes Gittens, not just these three). Ideally that would be accomplished with trades to net some sort of return. How possible is that though? None of these three guys have been healthy (combined seven stints and 314 days on the injured list in 2021), plus:

• Andujar has hit .228/.257/.331 (58 wRC+) around injuries since his Rookie of the Year runner-up season in 2018. He’ll be arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter.
• Frazier was finally given the left field job no questions asked this year and he responded with a .186/.317/.317 (82 wRC+) line. Plus he made $2.1M in 2021.
• Voit turns 31 in February and is taking a $4.7M base salary into arbitration. His pre-2021 production should push his 2022 salary into the $6M range.

Andujar (27 in March) and Frazier (turned 27 in September) aren’t even young anymore (you know what I mean, baseball young). They are poor defenders and essentially positionless, they have chronic-ish injuries (Andujar’s wrist and what seems like concussions with Frazier), and if you take them through arbitration, they’ll earn seven figures in 2022. Eh.

I know the Yankees internally love Andujar because he’s a tireless worker with an innate feel for the barrel that is uncommon in this high strikeout era. They may not always show it with their roster decisions, but Andujar is popular within the organization. I don’t know whether that’s true for Clint and Voit. Frazier in particular always seems to be kept at arm's length.

My hunch -- and I emphasize this is just a hunch with no inside info -- is the Yankees will push all three players in trades the next few weeks, with the intention of non-tendering Frazier and Voit if nothing comes along. I think they’re more likely to keep Andujar because they really do love him and he’s a bat-to-ball guy, though I don’t think he’s 100% safe. He’s just slightly safer than Clint and Voit because he’ll be cheaper in 2022.

The question is would the Yankees cut any of these three guys before the non-tender deadline? The non-tender deadline is usually Dec. 2nd, but the Collective Bargaining Agreement expires Dec. 1st, so who knows what will happen this offseason. The Rule 5 Draft protection deadline is Nov. 20th. The Yankees may need the 40-man space weeks before the non-tender deadline.

The five-plus weeks between now and the Rule 5 Draft protection deadline is plenty of time to know whether Andujar, Frazier, and/or Voit can be traded for a return. Teams can make trades during the postseason, though they rarely do. They absolutely talk trades though. Even the teams still playing. Front offices aren’t doing their jobs otherwise.

My guess is Frazier and Voit are released prior to the Rule 5 Draft protection deadline if they’re not traded first, and the same could be true for Andujar as well. I think the clock has struck midnight on all three. The Yankees missed their chance to trade all three for maximum value and they’re overloaded with righty DH types. Here are three 40-man spots.

What about Luetge?

Luetge was a hell of a find. He was one of only three players to spend the entire 162-game season on the active roster (Gardner and Chad Green are the others), and he threw 72.1 innings of 2.74 ERA (2.84 FIP) ball with good strikeout (25.9%) and walk (5.0%) rates. Luetge was effective against righties and lefties too. This was his first MLB action since 2015 and he was a tremendous out of nowhere success story.

This business is harsh though, and Luetge is not assured a roster spot next season. He’ll turn 35 in Spring Training and he got marginalized at the end of the season, pitching only twice in the team’s final 12 games. In the games that mattered most, Aaron Boone wanted others on the mound. Perhaps that changes with a new manager, but soon-to-be 35-year-old relievers who pop up out of nowhere typically aren’t great long-term bets.

Declining Rodriguez’s option (plus Zack Britton’s injury) could save Luetge’s roster spot over the winter and into next season. Either way, I don’t think Luetge is among the first round of 40-man casualties. If the Yankees do cut ties with him, it’ll be late in the offseason when 40-man space is tight and they have no other options. Luetge is safe for now.

The wild card: Britton

Two offseasons ago the Yankees needed to clear 40-man space at the Rule 5 Draft protection deadline, and among their moves was releasing Jacoby Ellsbury. He still had a year remaining on his contract, but he wasn’t expected to play, so the Yankees cut him loose rather than wait until Spring Training to put him on the 60-day injured list, and clear a 40-man spot that way.

Could the Yankees do something similar with Britton? He had Tommy John surgery last month and is all but certain to miss the entire 2022 season, and then become a free agent next winter. The Yankees will need 40-man space sooner rather than later and waiting until Spring Training to put Britton on the 60-day injured list may not be tenable.

There is one big difference here: the Yankees love Britton and didn’t have a great relationship with Ellsbury. Things went so bad between the two that the Yankees withheld Ellsbury’s salary in 2020, and filed a grievance claiming he received medical treatment without their permission. The grievance is still pending as far as I know, but yeah, the Yankees weren’t happy.

That animosity doesn’t exist with Britton. He is a beloved player in the clubhouse and Brian Cashman constantly praises him for his working relationship with the front office as the team’s union representative. That said, this is a business, and 40-man space is a finite resource. Giving a spot to an injured player who can walk next year may cost you another player. Can’t happen.

Britton is owed $14M next season and he gets that no matter what. The Yankees still have to pay him even after they release him. They also have to provide him with medical care and a place to rehab. You can’t just release an injured player and abandon him. The Collective Bargaining Agreement says teams have to care for injured players even after releasing them.

Britton gets his money no matter what. His biggest gripe would be service time. He’s at nine years and 158 days, so only 14 days short of 10 years even. 10 years locks in the full pension and other benefits. Players accrue service time while on the Major League injured list, so Britton will hit 10 years next April. Release him and he’ll have to wait until 2023, if he returns at all.

(Waiting until Britton gets his 10 years and then releasing him to clear 40-man space doesn't work. He would just go on the 60-day injured list in Spring Training in that case.)

Maybe this is small beans. By the end of next season Britton will have made nearly $90M in player contracts, so why does he need the $220,000 a year pension? 10 years of service is a pride thing among players though, plus there are some other benefits, and $220,000 a year isn’t nothing. Even if Britton doesn’t need it, it’s money for his kids, his kids’ kids, and his kids’ kids’ kids.

The other option is a salary dump trade. Give another team a prospect(s) to take on Britton’s salary (or just a chunk of it) and clear a 40-man spot. The Yankees gave up a fringe top 30 prospect (Frank German) to shed $8.15M of healthy Adam Ottavino. What will it take to shed $14M of injured Britton? I imagine quite a bit more. The Yankees are in the salary dumping business now. This can’t be ruled out.

(The x-factor here is insurance. If the Yankees are recouping a big chunk of Britton’s salary through insurance, trading him wouldn’t save as much cash as it would appear. If it’s 75% like Jacoby Ellsbury, the Yankees are really only responsible for $3.5M of the $14M owed to Britton next season.)

If at all possible, I think the Yankees will hang onto Britton and put him on the 60-day injured list in Spring Training, and clear a 40-man spot that way. You know how teams agree to deals now but don’t make them official until weeks later? The Yankees could sign a free agent in January and not make it official until camp opens, then put Britton on the 60-day injured list then.

I don’t think the Yankees want to release Britton. He’s a beloved player and there’s a chance, albeit a very small one, he pitches next season. That said, this is a business, and the Yankees shouldn’t tie up a 40-man spot on an injured player just because he’s a good dude, and possibly lose another player in the Rule 5 Draft or on waivers or whatever.

When the time comes the Yankees will cut ties with Allen, Brantly, Gittens, Locastro, and Velasquez to get the 40-man roster down to 40 players. O’Day, Odor, and Rodriguez figure to be the next round of the cuts, then there’s the Andujar, Frazier, and Voit situations to sort out. The first few weeks of the offseason will be busy for the Yankees. They have some significant roster trimming ahead of them.

4. Remembering a random Yankee: Ryan Dull. By request, this week’s random Yankee is a pitcher who only spent a month in the organization, but managed to contribute to one of the most memorable wins of the last few seasons. Here’s the random Yankee archive. You can find links back to everyone we've covered there.

Dull grew up in North Carolina and the Athletics drafted him out of UNC Asheville in the 32nd round of the 2012 draft. As a 5-foot-9 righty who topped out at 91-92 mph, Dull wasn’t much of a prospect, so 32nd round it was. The A’s put him in the bullpen full-time and he steadily climbed the minor league ladder, and made his MLB debut as a Sept. callup in 2015.

In 2016, Dull emerged as a trusted high leverage reliever for A’s manager Bob Melvin, and he even made some MLB history. Dull stranded the first 36 runners he inherited that season, the longest known streak in baseball history. The streak ended on July 9th, when he entered with runners on the corners and no outs, and allowed a run to score on a double play.

“You knew it was going to eventually happen, and especially in that situation, I was going to do anything. A double play was going to help us more than that one run. I’d gladly sacrifice it to get the double play there,” Dull told Susan Slusser after the win. “... You just wonder, you play every situation like, ‘How in the world could I get out of this one?’ But eventually it just comes down to situations where you need to win the game more than worry about the streak.”

Dull, then 26, finished the season with a 2.42 ERA and 73 strikeouts in 74.1 innings. The next two years didn't go as well, as Dull was hampered by knee trouble and ineffectiveness, and pitched to a 4.81 ERA in 67.1 innings from 2017-18. By 2019, he was a shuttle reliever who spent most of the season in Triple-A. He allowed 13 runs in nine innings with the A’s that year.

On Aug. 3rd, 2019, the Athletics designated Dull for assignment to clear room on the 40-man roster for catcher Dustin Garneau. The Giants claimed him two days later, and a week after that, San Francisco designated Dull for assignment before he ever even threw a pitch in their uniform. The Yankees claimed Dull on Aug. 14th. They were his third team in 11 days.

The Yankees were unusually active adding arms in Aug. 2019. That month they claimed Dull and Cory Gearrin on waivers, purchased Joe Mantiply from the Reds, and signed Tyler Lyons and Trevor Rosenthal. All except Rosenthal saw time in pinstripes. Dull spent some time in Triple-A, then was called up when rosters expanded on Sept. 1st.

That day the Yankees had a comfortable 10-game lead in the AL East, but they were trying to hold off the Astros for the league’s best record. Due to recent workloads Zack Britton, Luis Cessa, Chad Green, and Tommy Kahnle were all unavailable on Sept. 1st, so Dull made his Yankees debut against the A’s, his former team, in the seventh inning of a scoreless game.

“We knew we didn’t have a lot,” Aaron Boone told Randy Miller about his bullpen that day. J.A. Happ and Sean Manaea matched zeroes through six innings, and the only available high leverage relievers were Aroldis Chapman and Adam Ottavino. Boone went with Dull against the bottom of the A’s lineup in the seventh so he could use Ottavino against the top of the lineup in the eighth.

It did not work out. Dull struck out Mark Canha, the first batter he faced, but then surrendered a double to Khris Davis and walks to Robbie Grossman and Jurickson Profar. On Dull’s 23rd pitch, Sheldon Neuse broke the scoreless tie with a two-run double to right, his first MLB hit (video). Josh Phegley followed with a run-scoring ground ball to give the Athletics a 3-0 lead.

While we were all mad at Boone for using Dull, the Yankees rallied in the late innings. This was the Mike Ford walk-off homer game. Didi Gregorius drove in two runs in the eighth inning, then Brett Gardner and Ford hit back-to-back home runs against Liam Hendriks to first tie the game and then give the Yankees the win. Here’s the video. Dull’s outing was quickly forgotten.

“I don’t think it set in yet, but I definitely dreamed about it in the past,” Ford told Kristie Ackert about the walk-off home run. “So it was just an awesome dream.”

Then 29, Dull appeared in two more games with the Yankees. He got one out in a wild 12-11 back and forth loss to the Tigers on Sept. 10th, then allowed two runs in the ninth inning of a 13-3 win over the Blue Jays on Sept. 14th. Dull was designated for assignment the next day to clear a 40-man roster spot for Jordan Montgomery, who returned from Tommy John surgery.

Dull allowed five runs in 2.1 innings as a Yankee, and eight of the 15 batters he faced reached base. The Blue Jays claimed him on waivers and he made one appearance with them. He has not pitched in MLB since. Dull spent 2020 at home (Toronto didn’t invite him to their alternate site) and split 2021 between Triple-A with the Mariners and an independent league.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)