October 8th, 2021: Bold Predictions, Arizona Fall League, Mailbag

The first post of the offseason. I always hate it. Next season feels so far away because it is. The wait will probably be worse than usual this winter because the Collective Bargaining Agreement is up, and there’s no way MLB and the MLBPA work that out peacefully. Sorry today’s post is mailbag heavy. It’s been a busy week and I haven't had much time to think original thoughts. There should be some actual news in the coming days (Aaron Boone’s future, various offseason surgeries, etc.). We’ll cover it whenever it comes. To today’s thoughts.

1. Reviewing bold predictions. The season is over (for the Yankees, anyway) so now it’s time to review my annual bold predictions. I actually got one right this year, but only kinda. Here are my preseason bold predictions and here’s what came of ‘em.

The Yankees will be a top 10 team in days lost to injury

Two years ago the Yankees overhauled their training staff, then last season was interrupted by the pandemic, and we couldn’t get a read on anything. Last offseason and this season were closer to normal (it wasn’t perfectly normal, but close enough), meaning the new staff could get more hands-on with the players and better implement their training methods.

I bought into it and predicted the Yankees would be a top 10 team in days lost to injury, meaning among the 10 teams with the fewest days lost. According to Spotrac, that didn’t happen. They had the ninth most days lost to injury at 1,832. Bummer. But! But that includes COVID absences, and I don’t think it’s not fair to ding the training staff for those.

The Baseball Prospectus Injury Ledger allows us to subtract out COVID absences (which the Yankees had lots of) and focus only on true baseball injuries. Remove COVID absences and, well, the Yankees are still 11th in days lost to injury. The totals:

1. Padres: 2,506 days lost to baseball injuries
2. Rays: 2,394
…
10. Cubs: 1,644
11. Yankees: 1,627
12. Astros: 1,582
…
29. Cleveland: 843
30. Red Sox: 650 (!)

The Padres and Rays both had several pitchers who missed the season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. They had surgery late last year and it was known coming into this year that they’d miss the season, so Tampa’s and San Diego’s days lost totals are inflated a bit. The Red Sox? Good grief. They were remarkably healthy.

What went wrong with this prediction? Among other things, Luke Voit’s knee became a season-long issue, and also Aaron Hicks and Darren O’Day went down with season-ending injuries very early. Luis Severino had a few setbacks, Clarke Schmidt got hurt again, and Tim Locastro came over and immediately got hurt. The Yankees traded for him to intentionally tank my prediction. I’m sure of it.

The Yankees were 395 days away from being in the top 10 (bottom 10, really). If the Yankees don’t sign O’Day (152 days), don’t bother with Locastro (80 days), and Mike King doesn’t smush his finger between two weights while working out (67 days), I’d be within striking distance. Alas, those injuries happened, as did several others. I’m 0-for-1.

Two starters will have a 30% strikeout rate

MLB sabotaged me on this one. The league cracked down on foreign substances in the middle of the season, which sent spin rates and strikeout rates into decline. The MLB average before the crackdown: 24.0% strikeouts. After the crackdown: 22.6%. The full season average was 23.2%, and this is the first year MLB didn’t set a new record strikeout rate since 2007.

In my bold prediction, I set the minimum at 120 innings because I figured that would be a good target for Jameson Taillon (he threw 144.1 innings). 96 pitchers threw 120 innings this year and only eight had a 30% strikeout rate. The leaderboard:

1. Corbin Burnes: 35.6%
2. Carlos Rodon: 34.6%
3. Max Scherzer: 34.1%
4. Freddy Peralta: 33.6%
5. Gerrit Cole: 33.5%
6. Robbie Ray: 32.1%
7. Dylan Cease: 31.9%
8. Blake Snell: 30.9%
…
42. Jordan Montgomery: 24.5%
…
50. Jameson Taillon: 23.2%
…
96. Dallas Keuchel: 13.2%

No other Yankee threw even 100 innings this season (Domingo German was somehow fourth on the team with 98.1 innings). Cole getting to 30% strikeouts was a given. Taillon was my pick to be the second 30% strikeout guy, and I based the prediction on the new elevated four-seamer approach. That’s a high strikeout profile and I was optimistic it would click.

Unfortunately, it didn’t really take. Taillon did have a 25.8% strikeout rate in his first 11 starts, but the Phillies blasted him in his 12th start (four runs and one out), giving him a 5.74 ERA on the season. Taillon went back to the drawing board after that, reincorporated his two-seamer, and had more success the rest of the season. So much so that he was named AL Pitcher of the Month in July.

Two-seamers are not a strikeout pitch though, and Taillon’s strikeout rate slipped to 22.1% after he got bombed in Philadelphia and changed things up. His season strikeout rate:

Two predictions in and I’m 0-for-2. I’ll happily take the L on this one if it means the league-wide strikeout rate surge has slowed down even a little bit, though I’m not optimistic. I think the strikeout rate dip following the foreign substance crackdown will prove to be a speed bump rather than a stop sign.

The offense will cross the 90 mph exit velocity threshold

Despite the league-wide emphasis on launch angle and hitting the ball hard and all that, the league average exit velocity has held steady since Statcast launched in 2015. It was 88.0 mph in 2015 and it was 88.1 mph in 2021. It topped out at 88.5 mph in 2019. Consistently right around 88 mph the last seven seasons. Huh.

For the first time ever, a team crossed the 90 mph average exit velocity this season. Alas, it was not the Yankees. It was the Blue Jays at 90.1 mph. The Yankees fell about a mile an hour short. Here’s the leaderboard:

1. Blue Jays: 90.1 mph
2. Red Sox: 89.6 mph
3. Twins: 89.5 mph
4. Yankees: 89.1 mph
5. Astros: 89.1 mph

Aaron Judge (95.8 mph) and Giancarlo Stanton (95.1 mph) ranked first and second in average exit velocity in baseball this season, so this botched bold prediction isn’t on them. Blame it on Voit missing time (and his replacements being so bad), Gleyber Torres and DJ LeMahieu taking steps back, and Brett Gardner playing way more than expected.

The Yankees had an 89.9 mph average exit velocity in 2019, the last full 162-game season, and I thought they’d be able to make the leap over 90 mph this year. No dice. Ranking fourth in exit velocity didn’t help the offense much either. Blame all the ground balls for that. Hitting the ball hard is generally good, but better when it’s in the air. I’m 0-for-3.

The Yankees won’t use an opener in the postseason

Technically correct! Though Cole bombed out of the Wild Card Game so early that he was kinda like an opener. The spirit behind this bold prediction was the Yankees would play an actual postseason series, and not use an opener in any of those games.

The Yankees would’ve started Corey Kluber and Montgomery in some order in Games 1 and 2 had they advanced to the ALDS. The leash would have been short but it would not have been a true opener situation. Cole would have come back on normal rest for Game 3, then what happens in Game 4? That’s the game that could have thrown a wrench here.

Given how he threw in Game 162, I assume Taillon would have started Game 4, but he would have been on a pitch limit because of the ankle injury. A pitch limit isn’t the same thing as an opener though, right? Not at all. An opener is one or two innings by design for matchup purposes. Taillon would have been in a “give us whatever you can” situation.

The Yankee did not use an opener this postseason, so I’m claiming victory with this bold prediction. I’m 1-for-4. Truth be told, we don’t know what the Yankees would have done had they advanced to the ALDS. I don’t think they would have paired Taillon (or Kluber or Montgomery) with an opener, but I would’ve said the same thing about J.A. Happ last year, and look how that turned out.

Dominguez finishes the year as a top 10 prospect

At long last, Jasson Dominguez made his pro debut this year. It wasn’t a transcendent pro debut like Wander Franco’s or Vlad Guerrero Jr.’s, but it was good for an 18-year-old coming off a lost pandemic season. Dominguez hit .258/.346/.398 (105 wRC+) with five homers in 49 Low-A games as the youngest position player in a full season minor league.

MLB.com (No. 17) and Baseball America (No. 60) both had Dominguez as a top 100 prospect in their midseason updates, though not a top 10 prospect. Last week Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked Dominguez as the No. 7 prospect in Low-A Southeast, and if he’s No. 7 in that league only, he’s definitely outside the top 10 in the minors overall. So it goes.

The breakout prospect in the system this year was not Dominguez. It was 2019 first rounder Anthony Volpe. He is No. 1 on the Low-A Southeast list and he’s a top 20 prospect on just about every top 100 list. In hindsight, Volpe growing into a top 10 prospect would have been the bolder prediction, though that didn’t happen either. I finished this year 1-for-5. Better luck next year.

2. Arizona Fall League rosters announced. At long last, the 2021 Arizona Fall League rosters were announced earlier this week. Took them long enough. Not like the season starts Wednesday or anything. Anyway, Yankees prospects will play for the Surprise Saguaros and will be on a team with Nationals, Rangers, Reds, and Royals players. Here are rosters.

Before we get to the Yankees prospects, let me quickly note some rule changes MLB tested in the minors this year will continue in the AzFL. They are: 15-second pitch clock, two infielders on each side of second base, larger bases, and the automated strike zone. The pro-stolen base rules didn’t make the cut, I guess. Anyway, here’s who the Yankees are sending to the AzFL.

C Austin Wells

2021 stats: .264/.390/.476 (135 wRC+), 16 HR, 15.1 BB%, 24.9 K% (469 PA at Low-A/High-A)

Wells is, by frickin’ far, the best prospect the Yankees are sending to the desert. Last year’s first round pick had a strong pro debut this year, showing strong max exit velocity with Low-A Tampa before moving up to High-A Hudson Valley at midseason. Baseball Prospectus (subs. req’d) had a few words on Wells’ glove last month:

The defensive concerns that have followed Wells since he was drafted are valid, as he’s not quite fluid behind the plate and he has throwing and receiving issues that might eventually necessitate a move to first base or the outfield (for which he has the arm but possibly not the range).

The Yankees are more willing to go offense over defense behind the plate than most clubs and Wells fits the bat-first catcher profile. Whenever the automated strike zone comes to MLB (I’m not sure when it’ll happen, but it’ll happen), Wells will benefit. No need to move him out from behind the plate yet, though we do need to see some progress next year.

The AzFL is typically hitter friendly because of the weather and ballparks, and also because most minor league pitchers are bumping up against their innings limit, so the top guys are sent home (only three pitchers among MLB.com’s top 100 prospects are going to the desert). A college guy like Wells should put up big numbers in the AzFL. (Wells went to Arizona, so he should feel right at home in familiar surroundings too.)

RHP Blane Abeyta

2021 stats: 5.37 ERA (4.45 FIP) with 14.1 BB% and 28.5 K% (55.1 IP at Rookie/Low-A)

An undrafted free agent signing last year, Abeyta is a 23-year-old breaking ball spin rate guy. The fastball is mostly 92-95 mph with low spin, but the slider (2,538 rpm average) and curveball (2,679 rpm) spin are very good. Here’s video. Abeyta is a classic “he spins the ball well and we’ll see whether we can get him to velocity” modern pitching prospect. Every once in a while one of these guys turns into Jonathan Loaisiga or Randy Vasquez.

LHP Clay Aguilar

2021 stats: 1.90 ERA (2.85 FIP) with 5.4 BB% and 35.0 K% (52 IP at Low-A/High-A)

Aguilar, 22, is another one of last year’s undrafted free agent signings. He is a legitimate bullpen prospect as a low-90s fastball/low-80s slider guy. His spin rates are bonkers, over 3,000 rpm with both pitches, which is tippy top of the line. Here’s a little video. I’m guessing the Yankees hope to get Aguilar’s fastball into the mid-90s at some point. It’s easy to overrate minor league relievers with shiny stats, but Aguilar with mid-90s gas could really be something. A guy to watch.

1B/3B Andres Chaparro

2021 stats: .267/.381/.468 (130 wRC+), 15 HR, 13.9 BB%, 21.5 K% (433 PA at Low-A/High-A)

Chaparro made his pro debut in 2016 but is still only 22 thanks to the magic of international free agent. He’s one of those “came back from the pandemic with much more power” prospects, like Oswaldo Cabrera. The 15 home runs this year nearly doubled his career total, and among the players with at least 100 batted balls in Low-A Southeast, Chaparro had a top three max exit velocity:

1. Baron Radcliff, Phillies: 115.1 mph
2. Jake Sanford, Yankees: 112.6 mph
3. Andres Chaparro, Yankees: 112.5 mph
4. Addison Barger, Blue Jays: 112.1 mph
5. Aaron Sabato, Twins: 112.1 mph

The downside here is Chaparro is basically only a walks and power prospect. He’s a former catcher who is playing third base now, but is likely to wind up at first base full-time. A righty hitter with this profile isn’t the sexiest prospect in the world. Chaparro was passed up in the Rule 5 Draft last offseason and I reckon the same will happen this winter. The Yankees are sending him to the AzFL just to get a longer look at him.

RHP Harold Cortijo

2021 stats: 12.1 IP, 11 H, 13 R, 10 ER, 14 BB, 14 K in Rookie and Low-A

Cortijo, a 14th round pick in 2017, is an injury rehabber. He missed close to three months this season with an unspecified injury and wasn’t right at any point this year, before or after the injury. Cortijo had some prospect shine a few years ago as a mid-90s fastball/changeup/slider guy, though not so much these days. He’s going to the AzFL because he needs innings and AzFL teams need roster filler too. Hard to fill innings when surprises pop up when everyone on the roster is a legit prospect.

OF Elijah Dunham

2021 stats: .263/.362/.463 (124 wRC+), 13 HR, 11.9 BB%, 21.5 K% (395 PA at Low-A/High-A)

Another one of last year’s undrafted free agents, Dunham was seen as a fourth to sixth round talent at Indiana, and he just got squeezed out of the five-round draft. The 23-year-old started the year with Low-A Tampa, dominated, then moved up to High-A Hudson Valley and got humbled a bit. His numbers:

• Low-A: .276/.441/.500 (160 wRC+) with 19.7 BB% and 18.1 K%
• High-A: .257/.325/.448 (106 wRC+) with 8.2 BB% and 23.1 K%

J.J. Cooper and Kyle Glaser looked at the effects of all the minor league rule changes this year and found that, with the automated strike zone, Low-A walk rates went through the roof, but just about everything else stayed the same. Strikeouts, homers, total offense, etc. So the roboumps made the game worse. Who wants more walks? Boring.

Dunham’s stat line is skewed by the automated strike zone. The High-A numbers are a better reflection of his talent, and pre-draft scouting reports tout him as a lefty hitting fourth outfielder type. A guy who does a little of everything but nothing exceptionally. That’s a great get as an undrafted free agent. Roboumps could inflate Dunham’s numbers again in the AzFL.

RHP Zach Greene

2021 stats: 3.17 ERA (3.11 FIP) with 8.8 BB% and 38.2 K% (59.2 IP at High-A/Double-A)

Greene is the only guy I mentioned in my mini-AzFL preview who is actually going to the AzFL. He’s a reliever and an extreme fastball spin efficiency guy with an okay slider. Kinda like a poor man’s Chad Green, where the fastball is outrageously good and the rest is so-so. Over 1,100 pitchers threw at least 50 innings in the minors this season and Greene had the 30th highest strikeout rate. The Yankees have guys like this in spades and you need to have success at Double-A to separate yourself. Greene did this year and now he’ll get a longer look in the AzFL. He has another year to go before Rule 5 Draft eligibility.

RHP Tanner Myatt

2021 stats: 18.1 IP, 10 H, 12 R, 11 ER, 16 BB, 25 K in Low-A and High-A

Another injury rehabber. I had Myatt as a top 30 prospect in 2019 but he’s been constantly hurt since (it’s all arm injuries too), and this year he only got in those 18.1 innings before getting hurt again in July. Myatt is healthy enough to play in the AzFL though. The injury couldn’t have been too serious. He’s a monster (listed at 6-foot-7 and 220 lbs.) and control-challenged, and two years ago he’d sit close to 100 mph with a nasty curveball. I’m not sure what he looks like after all the injuries though. Myatt is still only 23 and will work to regain his past prospect glory in the AzFL these next few weeks.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. Brett Gardner spoke following the Wild Card Game loss and said he hopes to be back next season, but added he hasn’t thought too much about it. "I hope that I'm back next season, but that's really not on my radar right now. I'm trying to process what went on in this season that we just finished,” he told Bryan Hoch. Gardner’s contract includes a $2.3M player option, so the ball is in his court. I love the guy, he’s been a great Yankee, but I’d move on if it were up to me. Hopefully the Yankees and Gardner can do this in a dignified way that gives him a proper send off rather than an unceremonious release after he picks up the option … And finally, former Yankee Eddie Robinson passed away earlier this week. He was 100 years young and the oldest living former Yankee (and oldest living former Major Leaguer). Robinson, a power hitting first baseman, played for every American League team except the Red Sox in a 13-season career that spanned 1942-57 (that was back when it was an eight-team league). He served in World War II, went to four All-Star Games, and he was also on the last Cleveland team to win the World Series (1948). Following his playing career, Robinson got into coaching and scouting, and was general manager of the Braves (1972-76) and Rangers (1977-82). He was still working as a scout as recently as 2004. Hell of a life. Wikipedia tells me the oldest living former Major Leaguer is former St. Louis Browns outfielder George Elder (age 100), and the oldest living former Yankee is Art Schallock (age 97). He pitched in 28 games with the Yankees from 1951-55.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Many, many asked: Should the Yankees clean house?

I received countless variations of this question the last few weeks and months. I don’t keep track of these things but this might be the most asked question in RAB mailbag history. And I get it. The Yankees had a disappointing year and are on a downward trajectory while the rest of the AL East is on the upside. Well, I think the Orioles are, anyway. They should be by now.

Anyway, to answer the question: yes! I think a house cleaning is in order. It’s been brewing for a few seasons now, and with the window closing on the Aaron Judge era without a championship, yes, widespread changes are in order. Maybe I’m overreacting. Probably am. I mean, how bad could it really be? So much went wrong and the Yankees still won 92 games. We have it good.

A few things here. One, Aaron Boone has to go and the rest of the coaching staff should go with him. The poor defense, baserunning, fundamentals, etc. falls on them to some degree. Maybe pitching coach Matt Blake should be safe given the staff’s performance. I’d be fine moving on though. There’s lots of smart pitching people out and let’s get rid of the Boone stink completely.

Two, Brian Cashman hired Boone, and it was a mistake. It’s not just that it didn’t work out. It’s that Cashman deviated from the hiring process to get him. Remember when they were so wowed that they skipped the second round of interviews? This is a team that won’t give up a slightly better prospect to get a deal done or pay a penny more than the algorithm says a free agent is worth, but will completely skip a round of manager interviews. What the hell? Pretty glaring lapse in judgment there.

I think Cashman is a Hall of Fame executive. 23 years on the job is a long, long time though. A wildly successful general manager might spend half as long on the job. At some point you need new blood and I think the Yankees have been there for a few years now. Fresh eyes and fresh ideas. Cashman has tremendous value to the Yankees given his experience in this unique market. Bringing in a few outsiders for a fresh perspective seems wise though.

Ultimately, the blame starts at the top. Does Hal Steinbrenner want to win? Of course. Is he willing to go above and beyond to win? Absolutely not. There is no urgency. If there was, the Yankees wouldn’t reset the luxury tax twice in four years in the middle of a championship window, and twice do nothing at the trade deadline despite obvious needs. That will forever irk me. Doing nothing at the 2019 trade deadline was a colossal missed opportunity.

My concern is Hal would replace Cashman with some young executive who isn’t likely to push back and is thus more easy to control. Someone he can order to cut payroll more aggressively and then march out there to absorb the PR hit, kinda like when the Red Sox hired Chaim Bloom and made him fall on the sword of the Mookie Betts trade. It’s a high-profile job and it’s hard to say no, but you’re going to have to do something unpopular (Aaron Judge trade?) to get it. That kinda arrangement.

Boone and the coaching staff have to go. I’m more willing to bring Cashman back because the guy never puts a bad team together. Frustrating teams? Disappointing teams? Sure, but the Yankees are never bad, and I believe he is more than capable of propping this roster up and making sure the Yankees can contend next year. That said, I wouldn’t be opposed to new management, even if that’s a risky move. Lots of smart people have proven to be bad at this.

(There’s basically no chance Hal Steinbrenner fires Cashman, I think. Boone might go. I don’t think there’s any chance Cashman goes though. And if Cashman does get cut loose, he’ll be able to name his price to go run the Mets.)

Ray asks: I’d be surprised if Boone returned as manager. Would Bruce Bochy be a fit? Who are your preferred candidates?

There are rumblings Bochy wants to return. Tony La Russa just came back after a decade of retirement, so I could totally buy Bochy getting the itch after two years away. Bochy is not coming back to join a rebuilder though. He’s coming back to win right away, and Bochy is in a position where the team has to sell itself to him, not the other way around.

When a team hires a new manager, they tend to bring in the exact opposite of the guy they just had. Buck Showalter was a control freak, and the Yankees replaced him with the laid back Joe Torre. They then replaced Torre with the super serious Joe Girardi, and then replaced Girardi with the excessively chill Aaron Boone. It’s a common pattern throughout history.

Bochy is laid back too, though he’s the opposite of Boone in that he’s experienced and he’s won, and there’s no need for training wheels. Also, he’s worked for an analytics-friendly team. The Giants had an inaccurate rap all those years. They weren’t old school. Bochy might not be as heavily into analytics as some current managers, but he’s not coming out of the Stone Age.

Based on what I know as an outsider, yes, I think Bochy would be a good fit. He’s an instant credibility guy who understands what it takes to win (and win again after that), and he’s worked with both young and old rosters. He’s been successful with both types of teams. A few other potential managerial candidates, listed alphabetically.

Dusty Baker

Baker’s contract expires after the season and Richard Justice recently reported Astros GM James Click is believed to prefer hiring a younger person away from the Rays (his former team) to re-signing Baker. The Astros brought Dusty in to clean up the mess and put an adult in the room following the sign-stealing scandal and he did exactly that.

As an outsider, I love Dusty. He’s funny, his players love him, and his teams always win. He got a bad rap (it was not undeserved) with the Cubs for running Mark Prior and Kerry Wood into the ground, but that was a long time ago, and he’s been much more diligent with pitcher usage. Baker mixed and matched and quick-hooked like a modern skipper last postseason.

Dusty managed Barry Bonds with the Giants, so he’s dealt with circuses. He’s managed young players at every stop and has shown he can integrate them into the lineup. About the only thing he hasn’t done as a manager is win a World Series, but the same was true of Torre before he joined the Yankees, and Terry Francona before he joined the Red Sox.

Baker always seems to get the short end of the stick. If the Astros let him go, it will be the fourth time in five managerial jobs that he got fired after a 90-win season. Teams seem to think they can find someone better, then they just don’t. If the Astros move on and the Yankees want the Boone-esque laid back persona combined with actual managerial experience, they couldn’t do better than Dusty.

Carlos Beltran

It is objectively hilarious the Mets hired a universally beloved and respected former star player, someone the industry considers a rising managerial star, to be their new manager two years ago, then had to immediately fire him after he was outed as a ringleader in the biggest cheating scandal in a generation. Only the Mets. I swear.

Anyway, Alex Cora and A.J. Hinch were welcomed back with open arms this year, so it seems no one really cares about the sign-stealing. And unlike those two, Beltran was not suspended. In MLB’s eyes, he is in good standing, and a team could have hired him at any point in the last two years. No one took the plunge though.

Beltran is indeed beloved and respected, and he spent a year in the Yankees front office before joining the Mets. Would the Yankees really do the rookie manager thing again though? I would be totally cool with Beltran as the bench coach and apprentice under a more veteran manager for a year or two (or three), then taking over as manager once he has a better grip on the job.

Joe Espada

Espada spent three seasons with the Yankees (special assistant to Brian Cashman in 2014 and third base coach from 2016-17) before leaving to replace Cora as Houston’s bench coach. He has been viewed as a potential manager since his time in New York because he’s fluent in analytics, he has all sorts of coaching and front office experience, and he’s a good communicator (and bilingual). Hiring someone away from the Astros might not go over well, but Espada has ties not only to the Yankees, but directly to Cashman. A rookie manager candidate, but about as good a rookie manager candidate as anyone out there.

A.J. Hinch

This is so very unlikely because the sign-stealing scandal created a lot of bad blood between the Yankees and Astros, though I think it's interesting Hinch has an escape clause in his contract with the Tigers, according to Lynn Henning. If a big market team offers him a job, the Tigers can’t stop him from leaving. Would the Yankees turn heel and hire the manager who was directly responsible for a cheating scheme that may have cost them a World Series? I doubt it. If they want to though, Hinch is functionally a free agent. Detroit can’t stop him from leaving.

Bob Melvin

The Yankees were denied permission to interview Melvin four years ago, though Melvin has much more leverage now. His contract expires after next season, so he’s close to free agency, and Oakland’s ballpark situation is becoming untenable. The team president recently visited Portland and Las Vegas, two rumored relocation possibilities, and posted about it excessively on social media. He wasn’t hiding it.

The Athletics drew fewer than 10,000 fans in 13 of their final 19 home games, and seven times they drew fewer than 5,000 fans. Then they raised ticket prices. That is Ballpark Leverage 101. Tank attendance, say you can’t possibly survive without a new ballpark, and if the city doesn’t give it to you, use poor attendance to justify relocation. It is aggressively fan unfriendly. Why would Melvin want to stick around for that mess?

Also, New York is Melvin’s second home. He’s a random Yankee and he and his wife used to live in Manhattan in the offseason (they still might for all I know). Melvin’s teams consistently outperform expectations, he’s excelled at incorporating young players into the roster (something the Yankees have struggled with), and he’s a blend of new and old school. Melvin has proven himself to be one of the game’s great managers.

The A’s cut payroll this year, and given their relocation efforts, I’m guessing they’ll cut payroll again next year. Letting Melvin leave would save money (of course they'll replace him with someone cheaper). And hey, because he’s under contract, the A's could get something in return. The Yankees would have to make an old school manager trade to get him (the last manager trade was John Farrell for Mike Aviles in 2012).

Hensley Meulens

The Yankees interviewed Bam Bam four years ago, one of many times Meulens interviewed for a managerial job, though he’s yet to land one. He was on Bochy’s staff with the Giants for 10 years, then he spent last season as Mets bench coach. Meulens was let go after the season and was out of baseball in 2021. (I assume he kept busy with his baseball academy in Curacao).

Meulens has been considered a managerial prospect for more than a decade now. He was exposed to analytics with the Giants, he has a ton of coaching experience, and he’s regarded as a strong communicator (partly because he speaks five languages). Meulens also has some familiarity with the Yankees from his time as a player, though that was a long time ago. (The Yankees interviewed Meulens four years ago.)

As with Beltran, do the Yankees want to go right back to the rookie manager well? Even if the guy has as much coaching experience as Meulens, you don’t know what you’re going to get until you see him in action in the dugout and clubhouse. Replacing Boone with another rookie manager, even one as experienced as Meulens, would surprise me a bit.

Buck Showalter

Buck seems to be a popular name these days in the Yankees corner of the internet and I get it. He has ties to the organization and he is the polar opposite of Boone as a controlling (if not overbearing) manager whose teams are nothing if not buttoned up. He’s managed veteran teams, young teams, good teams, bad teams, the works.

Showalter has managed four teams and the circumstances were the same each time. He took over a bad team, turned things around, then was replaced by someone who got them over the top. Torre replaced him with the Yankees, Bob Brenly replaced him with the Diamondbacks, and Ron Washington replaced him with the Rangers. (The O’s didn’t replace Buck until their window closed. They lost 115 games his final year.)

Is the “he’s a builder who can’t finish the job” reputation that spans four teams a good reason to pass on Showalter? No, not necessarily. Buck would clean up the sloppiness that plagued the Yankees under Boone, that’s for sure, though he’s been out of the game for three years now. That’s an eternity. I’m also not sure whether the Yankees will give Buck as much control as he usually wants. He likes to be involved in front office decisions, etc.

Ron Washington

If nothing else, Washington is regarded as an outstanding infield instructor (Marcus Semien has credited him with improving his defense) and Gleyber Torres could use someone like that. Washington has been coaching since the mid-1990s and he had that eight-year stint as Rangers manager, and he’s spent the last few years as the Braves third base coach.

Washington admitted to using cocaine in 2010 and resigned from the Rangers because he had an extramarital affair, and I dunno how the Yankees feel about such things. Too much of a distraction? Who knows. Washington’s players love him, he’s an excellent coach, and he seemed like a good enough manager. Not sure I see this happening, but he’s out there.

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Willie Randolph has been out of the game so long (the Mets fired him in June 2008) that I don’t think he’s a realistic managerial candidate. There’s no chance the Yankees check in with Jayce Tingler, who was recently dismissed by the Padres. Tingler only got that job because he is close with GM A.J. Preller, and he wasn’t good at it. Former Mets skipper Luis Rojas seems like more of a player development guy. He excelled in that role earlier in his career.

Jay Bell managed in the Yankees farm system for a few years and is currently with the Angels. He’s been regarded as a future manager for a while. Don Kelly, the former Tigers utility man, is seen as a manager in waiting. He’s currently the Pirates bench coach. Same deal with Mark Kotsay, currently the A’s third base coach. Those guys would all be rookie MLB managers.

My preference would be Melvin based on what I know about these guys, which I admit isn’t much. Managers are hard to evaluate because so much of what they do is running the clubhouse. They all make dopey pitching changes and lineup decisions from time to time. Do they get the most out of their roster? Melvin has with the A’s. He’s my preference, though I am not dug in on this.

Daniel asks: If the Yanks were to sign Rizzo, what might a contract for him look like?

Back in Spring Training, Ken Rosenthal and Patrick Mooney (subs. req’d) reported Anthony Rizzo rejected a five-year, $70M extension from the Cubs. The deal included escalators that could've put more money in Rizzo’s pocket, but it was still much less guaranteed money than Paul Goldschmidt ($130M) and DJ LeMahieu ($90M) got at the same age.

Rizzo was good with the Yankees, not amazing (.249/.340/.428 and 113 wRC+), and the team does have a history of bringing back rentals who fit in well, which Rizzo certainly did (Zack Britton, J.A. Happ, Chase Headley, etc.). Still, I can’t imagine they’ll entertain a five-year contract. First base is not the position to spend big or go long-term with non-elite players.

As productive as he’s been throughout his career, Rizzo is a 32-year-old first baseman with a long history of back problems who has seen his production slip in recent years. This is textbook aging curve stuff for a guy on the wrong side of 30. It is the baseball circle of life.

If Rizzo pushes for anything more than two years, the Yankees should say thank you for the two months, and look for another lefty hitting first baseman. Maybe they’ll do the “tack on two extra years to lower the luxury tax hit” thing again, but I don’t advise it.

Only one full-time first baseman has received a multi-year free agent contract the last three offseasons: Carlos Santana (two years and $17.5M with the Royals last winter). There isn’t a good contract benchmark here. Maybe Michael Brantley’s two-year, $32M deal is more appropriate? Or Andrew McCutchen’s three-year, $50M contract? Something in that neighborhood?

There’s a number where bringing Rizzo back makes sense and that number kinda depends what the Yankees do with the rest of that roster. Anything more than two years would make me nervous no matter what though. I hope the Yankees don’t rush into a Rizzo reunion without first seeing what the market offers (i.e. whether Oakland makes Matt Olson available).

Chris asks: With pitching always hard to find, should the Yankees extend Kluber a QO? The dollars will be steep, but it’s rare to add good pitching on a short-term deal. Also, since we didn’t surpass the Luxury Tax Threshold (*vomit*), isn’t the draft pick higher than it otherwise would be?

No way. The qualifying offer will be in the $20M range this offseason, and even if the Yankees want to re-sign Corey Kluber, they could do it for way less than that. He made $11M this year, missed three months with another shoulder injury, was only so-so when healthy (no-hitter notwithstanding), and he’s another year older. I don’t think Kluber gets $11M again.

Even if the Yankees are planning something bonkers like a $300M payroll next season (lol), I wouldn’t commit ~$20M to Kluber. You can’t count on him to stay healthy or provide quality innings when healthy. Not the smartest use of money or a roster spot at this point. Also, the free agent compensation rules aren’t even all that favorable:

• Player signs deal worth $50M+: Compensation pick after the first round.
• Player signs deal worth less than $50M: Compensation pick after Competitive Balance Round B, which is before the third round.
• Former team pays luxury tax: Compensation pick after the fourth round regardless of contract size.

Kluber definitely isn’t getting more than $50M, so the Yankees would only get a draft pick before the third round (No. 70-75 overall pick range). That isn’t worth a ~$20M roll of the dice on Kluber. Also, the new Collective Bargaining Agreement likely won’t be done in time to implement more favorable rules. A qualifying offer for Kluber doesn’t make sense.

The Yankees don’t have any qualifying offer candidates this offseason. Kluber won’t get one, neither Darren O’Day nor Brett Gardner will get one should their options get declined, and Anthony Rizzo is not eligible because he was traded at midseason. Pitching on a short-term deal is rarely a bad idea, but I wouldn’t throw this much money around on a guy like Kluber.

El asks: When can we realistically see Volpe in the majors? How should that timeline affect potential free agent SS signings in the offseason?  What do you want the Yanks to do at SS?

Brian asks: I know ideally we would like Story or Seager, but knowing how cheap Hal is, do you think it is possible that Peraza starts the season as the starting SS? Do you have any insight into if he is MLB ready?

Going to lump these two questions together since they’re kinda related. I’ve written a bunch about Anthony Volpe this year because he’s been incredible, but Oswald Peraza had a fantastic year too. He would’ve been the talk of the system just about any other year. He just happened to have his breakout season the same year as Volpe (and the year Jasson Dominguez debuted).

Peraza, 21, hit .297/.358/.483 (128 wRC+) with 17 homers in 107 games with mostly Double-A Somerset, where he was one of the youngest players in the league. He also held his own during a late-season cameo with Triple-A Scranton (8-for-28 with a homer), and his overall strikeout (21.7%) and walk (7.2%) rates were strong. Not amazing, but good enough.

Like a few others in the system, Peraza came out of the shutdown with more strength and more power, and he’s now a top 100 prospect according to Baseball America (No. 58) and MLB.com (also No. 58). He’s a year older than Volpe and he’s a level ahead of him as well, so Peraza is closer to the majors essentially by default.

I don’t think that makes him a 2022 Opening Day option though, even though he is already on the 40-man roster. Peraza has barely played above Double-A and the jump from Triple-A to MLB is massive right now. Look how many top prospects (I mean tippy top guys like Jarred Kelenic and Wander Franco) needed weeks to settle in this year. It’s a big, big jump.

It would make sense for Peraza to begin next season in Triple-A with Volpe at Double-A. Perhaps Peraza can be an option at midseason? I could see it after a strong few months with Scranton. I wouldn’t count on seeing Volpe until early 2023. Splitting next season between Double-A and Triple-A, then pushing for a roster spot in 2023 would be a great outcome.

There are three non-first base infield positions to cover and I don’t think Peraza and Volpe are enough of an excuse to pass on Corey Seager or Trevor Story or whoever this offseason. They are prospects until proven otherwise, whereas the free agent guys are proven MLB stars all on the right side of 30. Sign one of them, then figure out how to make everyone coexist later.

I am unconvinced the Yankees will hand out a big contract this offseason, in which case a one-year shortstop stopgap is likely for next year. That would leave the long-term door open for Peraza and Volpe should they continue their breakouts next season. Counting on either in 2022 is asking too much and I don’t believe the Yankees would do that.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)