September 23th, 2021: Severino, Cortes, Bullpen, Lineup, Mailbag

UPDATE: I misunderstood one of the mailbag questions. The updated answer is below.

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The Yankees took care of business against the Rangers earlier this week, and now they embark on a season-defining six-game trip through Boston and Toronto. And if those six games go well, the Yankees then have to come home and try to beat the Rays three times. A Rays team that will probably hang a banner at Tropicana Field if they keep the Yankees out of the postseason. Fun fun fun. The Yankees are on pace to go 91-71 with nine games remaining. Here are Friday morning’s thoughts Thursday night since it’s an off-day.

1. Weekday thoughts. The Yankees are 30-37 against the AL East this year (19-29 against the Not Orioles) and now they’re in a position where they probably need to win at least seven of the nine upcoming games against non-Orioles AL East teams. The 2021 Yankees have surprised us before. Not always in a good way, but they have surprised us. A few thoughts on the last few games.

Welcome back, Sevy

Luis Severino is back. For real this time. He made his season and post-Tommy John surgery debut Tuesday night and didn’t look like vintage Severino, but looked good enough (video). He sat in the 94-96 mph range, down from his 97-100 mph peak, which is understandable given the two interruptions to his rehab. 94-96 mph is plenty good enough to get outs anyway.

“It was a lot (of emotions). The fans yelling my name, that was special for me. Just getting on the mound again in a real game, that was fun,” Severino told Greg Joyce about his first game back. “It doesn’t matter if it was freaking thunder, I was going to go back there and try to pitch.”

The situation and the timing worked out well. Aaron Judge broke the game open, so Severino made his debut in a low leverage spot and was able to throw two innings and 30 pitches. That’s where he was in his simulated games and it keeps him “stretched out” as a multi-inning bullpen option moving forward. Couldn’t script a return scenario any better.

Also, there’s no chance the Yankees were going to use Severino again Wednesday, so that plus the off-day today gives him two days rest going into tomorrow’s opener in Boston. He should be ready to go behind Gerrit Cole tomorrow. One more low leverage appearance (with the lead, preferably) would be ideal. If he’s needed in a high leverage spot though, so be it. Time is not a luxury.

One other thing: Severino is throwing a cutter now. A few times during the summer Aaron Boone mentioned Severino was working on the pitch during his rehab -- “He’s worked on his changeup and I think adding kind of a cutter-and-a-slider-hybrid to his repertoire,” Boone told the Associated Press earlier this week -- and he threw one Tuesday night (video link):

The score bug called it a four-seamer, but the movement (per Statcast) and the eye test tells me it was a cutter. I can’t imagine Severino will use that pitch much the rest of the way, especially if he’s pitching in high leverage situations (there’s no harm in throwing one with a big lead in the late innings against a bad team), but he has a cutter now. File that away for next season.

Mostly, I’m just happy Severino made it back, even if he returned so late that he won’t have much impact on the postseason race. Not long ago this guy was an ace and a Cy Young finalist, and we went nearly two years without seeing him pitch. Seeing Severino on the mound was the best feel-good moment of the Yankees season, if nothing else.

“He’ll help us here down the stretch,” Boone told Dan Martin. “It’s Luis Severino. I’m not gonna cap what that could be ... It’s pretty late here in the season, but that’s a talented person and a great pitcher.”

Cortes dropping down

Nestor Cortes had a weird start the other night. He cruised through the first four innings, including retiring 11 straight at one point, then the Rangers opened the fifth inning with a home run and two doubles, and that was it. Cortes ran his pitch count up to 92 and was out of the game. It fell apart quick there, though the Yankees won, and that’s all that matters.

Anyway, I want to talk about Cortes dropping down and throwing sidearm. He’s been doing it his entire career -- we saw him do it during his first stint with the Yankees in 2019 -- but it seems to me he is doing it more often now. Here are Nestor’s release points this year:

Cortes throws both his fastball and a slider from a lower arm slot. That one changeup is a junk slider (video) and the one curveball is a misclassified slider. Cortes is fastball/slider when he drops down and his four-seamer has sinker characteristics from that slot. It’s his four-seamer though, it just sinks a little more when thrown from down there.

I unofficially count 81 drop down pitches this year and 64 have come in two-strike counts, including 35 of the last 42 dating back to the Kansas City series. So that’s 29 of the first 39 in two strike counts (74%) and 35 of the last 42 in two strike counts (83%). Small sample, but the drop down is more of a two-strike weapon now. Here’s are Nestor’s total drop down pitches per start:

• July 4th vs. Mets: 6 out of 59 pitches (10%)
• July 9th at Astros: 4 out of 74 pitches (5%)
• July 28th at Rays: 4 out of 79 pitches (5%)
• Aug. 5th vs. Mariners: 4 out of 86 pitches (5%)
• Aug. 10th at Royals: 1 out of 80 pitches (1%)
• Aug. 15th at White Sox: 5 out of 98 pitches (5%)
• Aug. 20th vs. Twins: 3 out of 104 pitches (3%)
• Aug. 28th at Athletics: 3 out of 95 pitches (3%)
• Sept. 3rd vs. Orioles: 3 out of 84 pitches (4%)
• Sept. 9th vs. Blue Jays: 8 out of 103 pitches (8%)
• Sept. 15th vs. Orioles: 11 out of 98 pitches (11%)
• Sept. 20th vs. Rangers: 8 out of 92 pitches (9%)

Cortes has dropped down more often his last three starts. Roughly twice as often as in his first nine starts. I thought he was dropping down more as I watched the games (that’s why I looked into this in the first place) and the numbers back it up. Always neat when that happens.

Anyway, I think the increase is a platoon thing. Cortes has thrown 74% of his drop down pitches to righties, and 62 of the 67 batters he’s faced in his last three starts have been righties (93%). For now, I don’t think the increase in drop downs is anything more than a function of the lineups he’s faced. We see what happens moving forward, but I think the increase is a matchup thing.

I’m not sure where I’m going with this. I thought Cortes was dropping down more often in his last few starts and he is, so hooray? Nestor’s very fun and I feel like there are endless things to write about him, especially now that he’s Actually Good. Good is good. Fun is good. Good and fun is the absolute best. Cortes is basically the lefty El Duque now. It’s awesome.

Bullpen Voltron

From now on we’ll have to withhold any criticism when the Yankees trade for a random reliever with bad numbers. They’ve proven to be very good at identifying these guys and getting them to level up. Here are the combined numbers for Clay Holmes (4.93 ERA with Pirates), Wandy Peralta (5.40 ERA with Giants), and Joely Rodriguez (5.93 ERA with Rangers) in pinstripes:

• IP: 76
• ERA: 2.76
• FIP: 3.22
• K%: 22.8%
• BB%: 7.2%
• GB%: 57.1%
• WPA: +1.20
• WAR: +2.0

That’s a full season’s workload and a notch below truly elite performance. All the Yankees gave up to get that Voltron reliever was Mike Tauchman, two guys on the 40-man roster bubble (Hoy Jun Park and Diego Castillo), plus whatever portion of the Joey Gallo trade package you want to ascribe to Rodriguez. When a pitcher with bad numbers joins the Yankees and stinks (like, say, Andrew Heaney), we can call them out. Otherwise we should take a wait and see approach. They've earned it.

Holmes in particular has been a revelation. The arm talent was evident in Pittsburgh. He always had that upper-90s sinker and promising breaking ball. But now he throws strikes apparently? A lot of them too. Holmes walked 25 batters in 42 innings with the Pirates. He’s walked one (one!) batter in 22.1 innings with the Yankees. Some numbers:

BB% with PIT: 13.2%
BB% with NYY: 1.2%

First pitch strike rate with PIT: 59.3%
First pitch strike rate with NYY: 64.2%

Three-ball count rate with PIT: 24.9%
Three-ball count rate with NYY: 16.0%

Sinker zone rate with PIT: 55.6%
Sinker zone rate with NYY: 59.0%

Turns out “you should throw more strikes with that 98 mph sinker” was good advice. Obviously it’s not that simple, but something changed with Holmes. I don’t know what, specifically, but something. Even in small samples, you don’t improve your strike-throwing ability that much without some sort of adjustment. The Yankees deserve a ton of credit here.

Bullpen construction is starting to change and we can see it with the Yankees. No longer does a guy with an upper-90s fastball and a slider stand out. That doesn’t mean guys like that can’t be valuable, but they’re becoming commonplace. They’re a dime a dozen, really. That’s why Shane Greene couldn’t get a job this winter. He has a track record, sure, but what’s really the difference between him and what teams have in Triple-A making the MLB minimum? Not a whole lot.

The focus now is more on variety and avoiding the barrel. Holmes brings a righty turbo sinker. Peralta endlessly spams hitters with changeups. He’s fearless with that pitch. We saw him throw five straight changeups to the reigning MVP with the bases loaded in Atlanta a few weeks ago. Rodriguez slings the ball from way out here …

… and just eats up lefties. They’re hitting .182/.274/.200 (.226 wOBA) against him with a 30.2% strikeout rate and an 80.6% ground ball rate. The three-batter minimum limits his usefulness a bit (righties are hitting .324/.368/.441 against him), but man, if you need a guy to get one out against a tough lefty, it’s hard to do better than Rodriguez.

“He’s a problem for lefties. He’s probably – of all our lefties down there -- he’s the one true left-on-left that we want that matchup any time it’s their best left-handed hitter,” Boone told Ryan Morik about Rodriguez earlier this week. “If we can get him in that situation, he’s got the stuff, and just his delivery that creates a real problem for left-handed hitters.”

A few weeks ago I noted the Yankees are emphasizing ground balls with their relievers, though I think the high ground ball rates are a byproduct and not the goal. The Yankees are getting away from that dime a dozen fastball/slider profile and instead looking for above-average movement, a single knockout pitch (like Peralta’s changeup or Holmes’ sinker), and variety. I won’t say no two relievers in the bullpen are alike (Holmes and Mike King are similar), but it’s close.

Aroldis Chapman and Chad Green have been better the last few times out, so maybe they’re turning things around. King has been great since returning, and now the Yankees have him and Severino (and Domingo German) available for multi-inning stints. Then there’s the Bullpen Voltron with a look and a style to fit all your medium-to-high leverage needs. The Yankees had a full blown bullpen crisis a few weeks ago. Now Boone has an abundance of options.

On the lineup

There are nine games remaining in the season and we’re just not going to see the best possible lineup at any point in those nine games, are we? The Yankees have strongly indicated that these last few weeks, when one regular was on the bench each day. Yesterday -- the day before an off-day! -- it was Anthony Rizzo and Gary Sanchez, though they did pinch-hit late.

To be fair, part of this complaint is rooted in the Yankees and myself likely disagreeing over what constitutes the best possible lineup. I think it’s this (we can quibble over the exact batting order, I’m more focused on the nine names):

1. 3B DJ LeMahieu
2. CF Aaron Judge
3. 1B Anthony Rizzo
4. RF Giancarlo Stanton
5. DH Luke Voit
6. LF Joey Gallo
7. 2B Gleyber Torres
8. C Gary Sanchez
9. SS Gio Urshela

The Yankees believe the best lineup includes Brett Gardner, who has started each of the last eight games and 20 of the last 24 games (!) while Voit has started only 11 of those 24 games, and only six of the last 15 games. If the front office weren’t onboard with this, it wouldn’t happen. In these must-win games, the Yankees think Gardner gives them a better chance to win than Voit.

I fundamentally disagree with that -- Gardner had a much-appreciated hot streak recently, but is now in a 3-for-24 (.125) skid while Voit has hit .240/.331/.510 (129 wRC+) since coming off the injured list -- but what I think doesn’t matter. I’m just an idiot with a blog and they’re the ones running a multi-billion dollar franchise. But also they’re 18th in runs per game and might miss the postseason? Maybe they’re wrong? It happens. Like, all the time.

I should note other teams do this too! The Blue Jays are in the same boat as the Yankees and they started Jarrod Dyson in center field the other day. That doesn’t make it okay though, does it? If the Yankees use Andrew Heaney in a high leverage spot, should the Blue Jays put Ross Stripling out there with the game on the line? No. Of course not.

Judge was the DH the last two games and Boone admitted to Martin that Judge is “banged up.” Okay, fine. It’s late September and the Yankees just wrapped up a 20 games in 20 days stretch -- Judge was the only player to start all 20 games (Stanton sat out the first game of the Mets series) -- so he’s worn down. I get that. The Yankees won the two games, so whatever.

With an off-day today and another off-day coming Monday, the Yankees have no reason not to play their best lineup all three games in Boston. The games are crucial and the rest is built-in. And when they go to Toronto next week, the best lineup should play all three games too, even on the turf. Those are postseason games. Lose them and you’ll be able to rest your players as much as you want starting the following week.

I don’t expect this to happen because the Yankees are already playing what they consider their best lineup. Kyle Higashioka will catch tomorrow because he is Cole’s personal catcher, and you wouldn’t want Cole to do something like give up seven runs in 5.2 innings. Gardner will be in left field at some point even though Voit is built for Fenway Park as a righty who can yank a ball to left field. It is what it is.

The Yankees are 10-15 since the 13-game winning streak and they’re scored no more than four runs 16 times in those 25 games. At no point in those 25 games have they put the nine names I listed above in the starting lineup together. Can we maybe try that? Because the bench player du jour approach hasn’t really worked. Nine games left. Playing the nine best players isn’t too much to ask.

2. The Red Sox series. The Yankees are in Fenway Park for three games this weekend and it has been a long, long time since these two teams played a September series of this magnitude. They haven’t always been in contention at the same time the last 20 years or so, and even then the Wild Card often meant both were likely to reach the postseason anyway.

Neither team is assured a postseason spot right now. The Yankees and Red Sox haven’t played a September series in which that was the case since 2000, and even that series predated New York’s 3-15 finish, which put the AL East title in question. At the time of that series the Yankees had a comfortable seven-game lead. We didn’t know they’d limp to the finish like they did.

Anyway, the Yankees are going to Boston this weekend. Here are the Wild Card standings following the relevant games on Thursday:

1. Red Sox: 88-65 (+2.0 GB)
2. Yankees: 86-67
3. Blue Jays: 85-68 (1.0 GB)
4. Mariners: 84-69 (2.0 GB)
5. Athletics: 82-71 (4.0 GB)

If the Yankees go 9-0 in their final nine games, they’ll host the Wild Card Game. It’s that simple. They’ll jump the Red Sox in the standings and we won’t need to sweat any tiebreaker scenarios. The Yankees will be the first Wild Card team outright should they win out, which of course is unlikely. Just being realistic here. Going 9-0 is hard.

“What’s comforting is we’re in control of things,’’ Aaron Boone told Dan Martin yesterday. “Regardless of what happened (Wednesday), we’re in control of things. It’s on us. It’s right in front of us. If we go out and play well, we’ll get to we’re we want to go. If we don’t, we go home. We don’t have to get help from anyone else.”

Go 9-0 and the Yankees will host the Wild Card Game. Go 7-2 and they might have to play a Game 163 tiebreaker just to get to the postseason. That’s how precarious things are right now. It’s possible for the Red Sox to finish 94-68 and the Blue Jays and Yankees to both finish 93-69, which would force the Yankees to go to Toronto to play a Game 163 tiebreaker for the second Wild Card spot. That’s how little wiggle room the Yankees have.

This is what you need to know about the Red Sox going into this weekend’s series. One, they’re on a seven-game winning streak and they’ve worn their hideous City Connect jerseys all seven games, so they will continue to wear them this weekend. The jerseys (photo via ESPN):

They look like a rejected UCLA jersey. I understand and appreciate the symbolism (they’re based on the Boston Marathon finish line) but man are they an eyesore. The Red Sox will wear those aggressively yellow get ups until their winning streak ends, which I hope is Friday.

Two, their bullpen is kind of a mess. Garrett Whitlock (pectoral) is on the injured list and won’t be eligible to return until next week. Matt Barnes has been horrible the last two months (with a three-week COVID absence mixed in), so much so that there’s speculation he'll be left off the postseason roster. Adam Ottavino, Garrett Richards, and Hansel Robles are their go-to high leverage options.

Three, the offense is out of its mind right now. The Red Sox have scored at least six runs in every game during the seven-game winning streak, and six times in those seven games they’ve scored at least seven runs. Granted, they were facing the Mariners and Orioles and Mets, but still. We know the Red Sox can hit. The wRC+ leaderboard since the cherry-picked date of Aug. 1st (min. 100 plate appearances):

1. Bryce Harper: .345/.469/.776 (212 wRC+)
2. Juan Soto: .366/.546/.621 (200 wRC+)
3. Bobby Dalbec: .319/.409/.731 (197 wRC+)

The bottom of Boston’s lineup was thin earlier this year and there’s still some soft landing spots down there, though Dalbec is no longer a pushover. You could feed him righty sliders all night and he’d chase and chase and chase. Now he’s showing more discipline, and he’s always had power. It’s not just Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers and J.D. Martinez anymore.

And four, it’s supposed to rain Friday. The internet tells me it’s going to start sometime around 8am ET and continue until after midnight. Decent chance the game gets banged* and they play a doubleheader either Saturday or Sunday. Either that, or they’re going to play through raindrops Friday, in which case Mother Nature could cut a Gerrit Cole start short.

* If the game is rained out, it would mean Cole will not be available to start Game 162 on short rest if that’s a win or go home situation. He would still be available for a Game 163 tiebreaker on short rest and the Wild Card Game on normal rest, however.

On paper, the Yankees have an extreme disadvantage with their schedule. They play the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Rays. The Red Sox play the Yankees, Orioles, and Nationals, and the Blue Jays play the Twins, Yankees, and Orioles. That’s rough. Can’t count on the O’s, Nats, and Twins to help (the Twins did beat the Blue Jays tonight, so who knows). The Yankees have to take care of business themselves.

Win two of three and the Yankees still exit the weekend trailing Boston by one game. They have to sweep to pull ahead. One game at a time though. This is the postseason right now and the games should be treated accordingly, especially with an off-day today and an off-day Monday. In 72 hours or so, we’ll have a pretty good idea whether the Yankees have a realistic shot at hosting the Wild Card Game.

“This is who we’re up against, fighting for the same thing,’’ Boone told Martin. “You should want it no other way. We’re gonna find out (who the best team is). When you’re fighting for a couple spots (among) a few teams, the fact you get to settle it mano a mano on the field, that’s the way it should be. Hopefully we get where we want to go by playing good baseball.”

3. Rapid fire thoughts. We have clarification on Mike King’s injury. The other day I speculated he might’ve had a fracture in his finger given how much time he missed, and man on the scene Conor Foley reached out to clear things up. When King was rehabbing with Triple-A Scranton, Foley learned he tore a ligament off the bone in his right middle finger, and initially tried to pitch through it (King played catch with it but did not appear in a game). The pain and swelling was too severe, so he had to be shut down. King eventually received a cortisone shot and is all good now. Maybe the healed ligament gave him superpowers given how he’s throwing the ball … Quick labor talk update: MLB and the MLBPA open their grievance hearing Monday, reports Ron Blum. The union filed a $500M grievance a few weeks ago claiming MLB did not act in good faith and play as many games as possible last season. The $500M equals about 20 games worth of player pay, indicating the union believes they could’ve played 80 games last year, which they probably could have. I have no idea which way this grievance will go, but it gets underway next week, all while the two sides continue Collective Bargaining Agreement talks behind the scenes. Definitely not looking forward to all the upcoming labor rumors and public bickering … And finally, by now I’m sure you’ve seen the Blue Jays vs. Rays scouting card controversy. I don’t have a problem with Kevin Kiermaier picking up the card. Any player in that spot, including a Blue Jay or Yankee, would’ve done the same. Don’t like it? Secure your card better. I bring this up only to use it as an excuse to say I am becoming increasingly in favor of no cards or video or anything during games. Do as much video work and preparation as you want before and after games. Go nuts. But, during a game, no access to video and no cards with scouting reports or sign sequences or defensive positioning or anything. Once the game begins, you’re on your own. Players will hate it and this will never happen, but that’s where I’m at right now. Let’s cut off in-game access to these tools and leave it up to the players and the players only.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Jon asks: If the Yankees ditch Sanchez next year who are the most likely replacements (Free agent, trade or internal?)

It’s not often a great (or even a good) catcher hits free agency because when a team gets its hands on a quality catcher, they usually don’t let him go. Quality is in short supply behind the plate. J.T. Realmuto last winter was an exception, not the rule. The Braves recently extended Travis d’Arnaud, so here is the upcoming free agent catcher class. Try not to gag:

Tucker Barnhart (31) — $7.5MM club option ($500K buyout)
Robinson Chirinos (37)
Yan Gomes (34)
Sandy Leon (33)
Jeff Mathis (39)
Roberto Perez (33) — $7MM club option ($450K buyout)
Manny Pina (34)
Buster Posey (35) — $22MM club option ($3MM buyout)
Wilson Ramos (34)
Austin Romine (33)
Kurt Suzuki (38)
Christian Vazquez (31) — $7MM club option ($250K buyout)
Mike Zunino (31) – $4MM club option ($1MM buyout)

I assume Vazquez and Zunino will have their options picked up, and I can’t see Posey leaving the Giants. My guess is they’ll tear up the option and work out a multi-year extension at a lower base salary before he even hits the market. Perez is a goner. The only question is whether the option is declined or Cleveland picks it up and trades him. I’d bet on the former.

Barnhart is probably the best of the bunch. He’s a classic no bat/all glove catcher and the $7.5M option is pricey. Rookie Tyler Stephenson has had a great year and is ready to take over as the No. 1 guy, and I don’t see the notoriously frugal Reds paying $7.5M for a backup catcher. I think they decline Barnhart’s option and he becomes the best available free agent backstop.

Three names immediately jump to mind as trade candidates: Willson Contreras, Carson Kelly, and Jacob Stallings. The Cubs are rebuilding, so Contreras is definitely available. He’s a slightly better version of Gary Sanchez as an offense-first guy with one year of control remaining. If you’re going to move on from Gary, trading for Contreras kinda defeats the purpose, no? Gary + prospects needed to trade to get Contreras > Contreras.

Stallings is an excellent defender and the bat is serviceable (.242/.328/.369 and 92 wRC+ the last two years) in full-time duty (i.e. he’s not a backup who will crater under a starter’s workload), plus he’s hit in the middle of the order. His 11.1% walk rate is not inflated by hitting eighth in front of the pitcher. Stallings turns 32 in December. Why keep him if you’re the Pirates? He won’t be part of the next contending Pirates team. Might as well trade him while you can.

As for Kelly, the Diamondbacks are extremely bad and my guy Daulton Varsho is having a fine year, and appears ready to take over as the starting catcher. Trading Kelly, who is three years away from free agency, to save a few bucks, add prospects, and clear the starting job for Varsho seems possible. He’s hit .236/.333/.429 (98 wRC+) since taking over as the starter in 2019 and is a solid defender (Kelly’s struggled bad since returning from a broken wrist a few weeks ago).

Other possible catcher trade targets include, uh, Mitch Garver? Ryan Jeffers falling on his face this year might force the Twins to keep Garver. The Padres seem willing to trade anyone, so I’ll list Austin Nola and Victor Caratini (and prospect Luis Campusano) here. Meh, meh, and meh. Contreras, Kelly, and Stallings are the obvious trade candidates. The rest of the market is really thin.

The only near-MLB-ready catcher in the system is Donny Sands, who had a breakout season and could land on the 40-man roster. There’s no way he can be counted on as the starter for a contending team in 2022 though. The state of catching around baseball is pretty sad right now. I hope the dump Gary crowd has something in mind I’m not seeing, because yeesh.

Larry asks: How about signing Freddie Freeman? Didn’t realize he was a FA until Petriello mentioned it on today’s Ballpark Dimensions pod. I’m assuming the Yanks won’t given (1) the whole wrong-side-of-30 thing; (2) general avoidance of handing out long-term deals for aging stars; and (3) the fact that they have Voit at 1B (and I like Voit!), but in a vacuum that lefty bat would be perfect for YS, no? While we’re spending the Yankees’ money, can we add Story while we’re at it?

Oh sure, Freeman would be perfect for the Yankees (and just about every team). He’s hitting .302/.392/.516 (138 wRC+) this year, which is not as good as his MVP season a year ago (186 wRC+), but is right in line with 2013-19 (142 wRC+). Freeman has power, he doesn’t strike out much, he hits lefties, he’s great defensively, and he’s a great clubhouse guy. The ideal pickup for first base.

Two problems though, as Larry noted. One, Freeman just turned 32, so he’s about to enter what figure to be his decline years. And two, it’s going to take a significant contract to sign him. Paul Goldschmidt’s five-year, $130M contract is the benchmark here (Goldschmidt signed his deal at the same age Freeman is now), though Freeman’s been better leading up to free agency, so I bet he gets more. Maybe five years and $150M?

I’ve said this a bunch of times in recent weeks: I don’t think the Yankees are all that interested in handing out another big money long-term deal this winter, which likely rules Freeman out. Also, I don’t think passing on a big money 32-year-old first baseman would be a bad thing. Freeman’s great! But you’re not getting 2013-21 Freeman, you’re getting 2022 and beyond Freeman, and decline is inevitable.

If the Yankees are going to hand out a big money contract this winter, they’d be much better off giving it to one of the shortstops (Corey Seager, Trevor Story, etc.), I think. Those guys fill a more pressing need and they’re several years younger than Freeman. You’re buying peak years with them whereas with Freeman you’re investing in (likely) decline years. Plus shortstop is a much tougher position to fill in general. You can do a lot worse than falling back on Luke Voit at first base.

Freeman is a Braves icon -- he’s in retired number territory now -- and I’m sure they will lock him up at some point. He’s made it pretty clear he wants to stay. An extension will likely happen, in which case we won’t have to argue about him come free agency time. In a vacuum, Freeman would be an amazing fit. In the real world, spending on a shortstop makes more sense.

Alec asks: Do you think the Cy Young voters will penalize Cole for being the face of the foreign substance breakdown? I know he’s been pretty much the same guy despite the crackdown, but do you think he gets penalized similarly to those who used performance enhancers?

Can’t rule anything out with awards voters these days. A lot of the time it seems like they look for reasons to not vote for a player rather than just finding reasons to vote for another player. Remember when Aaron Judge couldn’t win MVP because he wasn’t clutch? Like that.

Anyway, Gerrit Cole became the face of the sticky stuff crackdown because he’s a known user and the ace of the Yankees with a record contract. That puts a target on his back. Also, Cole’s primary Cy Young competition is Robbie Ray and Ray’s spin rates didn’t dip at all following the crackdown. Here’s the graph (note the scale on the y-axis, the peaks and valleys aren’t as big as they look):

Ray’s worst spin rate month was May at 2,198 rpm and his best is September at 2,235 rpm. It’s a difference of less than 40 rpm, which is nothing. That’s normal fluctuation, like a guy hitting .280 one month and .295 the next. The difference between Cole’s best (April) and worst (July) spin rate months is close to 200 rpm. That’s huge. That’s well within sticky stuff range.

Based on that, you can surmise Cole used foreign substances and Ray didn’t, and thus favor Ray for Cy Young. I don’t think that would be wrong either. The evidence suggests one guy used a performance-enhancing substance and the other didn’t. If their numbers are close and a voter uses sticky stuff as a tiebreaker to decide the award, that’s a-okay with me.

Cole’s clunker Sunday gave Ray a decent lead in the Cy Young race, I think. He leads the AL in innings, ERA, ERA+, WHIP, strikeouts, and WAR, and is top five in all the other important stuff too (FIP, strikeout rate, etc.). Cole is second in basically everything and isn’t far behind, though that dud Sunday hurt his candidacy, as will any voters who hold the sticky stuff against him.

Brian asks: Assuming the top 3 postseason starters are Cole, Monty and Nestor (still can’t believe I’m typing that with a straight face) who do you think will be the 4th starter? Taillon, Kluber or Bullpen game?

I’m not 100% sold on the Yankees starting Nestor Cortes in a postseason game. He deserves it, he’s pitched very well, but it’s one of those “I need to see it to believe it” things. The safe move is starting Corey Kluber in October because he’s the two-time Cy Young winner who threw a no-hitter earlier this year, blah blah blah yadda yadda yadda. Few would second guess that.

Jameson Taillon threw 51 pitches in his Triple-A rehab start Wednesday night and all went well, though the Yankees won’t be able to stretch him back out to 90+ pitches at this point. There just isn’t enough time remaining in the season. Maybe that means they’ll use Cortes and Taillon as once through the order guys, or maybe twice through if the offense gives them support?

I think Cortes should start a postseason game, though my guess is the Yankees would favor Kluber, partly because of his track record and partly because Cortes has shown the versatility to pitch in any role. It’s easier to move him to the bullpen. Assuming the Yankees don’t have to play a Game 163 tiebreaker, I could see the pitching breaking down like this:

• Tues., Oct 5th (Wild Card Game): Gerrit Cole
• Weds., Oct. 6th: off-day
• Thurs., Oct. 7th (ALDS Game 1): Jordan Montgomery
• Fri., Oct. 8th (ALDS Game 2): Corey Kluber
• Sat., Oct. 9th: off-day
• Sun., Oct. 10th (ALDS Game 3): Cole on normal rest
• Mon., Oct. 11th (ALDS Game 4): All hands on deck game with Cortes and Taillon the primary options (could be matchup based depending on the opposing lineup)
• Tues., Oct. 12th: off-day
• Weds., Oct. 13th (ALDS Game 5): Montgomery on extra rest or Kluber on normal rest depending how Games 1 and 2 go

The Yankees have done some weird things in the postseason, most notably using Deivi Garcia as an opener last year, so I’m not putting anything past them. My hunch -- and I emphasize this is only a hunch -- is Cole, Kluber, and Montgomery will be the top three postseason starters, then everyone else will be asked to fill in the gaps somehow. Now the Yankees just have to get to the postseason so we can actually worry about this.

Jack asks: There are two outs in a playoff game, bottom of the ninth inning, runners on second and third with the Yankees down by 1. Rank, in order, the Yankees starting lineup by who you most want to be up at bat.

This was easier to answer than I thought it would be when I first read the question. Everyone just kinda falls into place. Given the situation, all I need is a single, so a few of the “sorry dude, my power’s gone” guys on the roster have heightened value. Here’s how I’d rank ‘em:

1. Aaron Judge. The team’s best hitter. Pick anyone else here and you’re overthinking it.

2. Giancarlo Stanton. The team’s second best hitter. Also, Stanton’s been a high leverage beast this year (.333/.389/.521 and 148 wRC+). When all you need is a hit (any kind of hit), the No. 1 spot goes to the guy with the team’s highest batting average and the No. 2 spot goes to the guy with the team’s second highest batting average. Pretty simple.

3. DJ LeMahieu. Like I said, I only need a single, and LeMahieu’s the best bet to provide one given who’s on the board. Plus he’s taking plenty of walks this year, and the No. 1 priority here is not making an out. LeMahieu would’ve been the call for the No. 1 spot the last two years, but 2021 LeMahieu is not 2019-20 LeMahieu.

Also, here’s a weird one: Katie Sharp recently noted LeMahieu has a 153 OPS+ in losses and a 64 OPS+ in wins this year. Usually it’s the other way around, and broadcasters act like it’s some profound discovery that a player performs better when his team wins (might be some correlation there, guys). Yet LeMahieu has been a dud in wins and a world-beater in losses. I’m not drawing any conclusions from that. Just pointing out the weirdness. 2021, man.

4. Anthony Rizzo. The best bet for contact among the remaining players. If nothing else, Rizzo will give you a good at-bat, and he gives you a chance at a walk-off homer. I might have Rizzo one spot too low. I’m willing to hear arguments that he belongs ahead of LeMahieu.

5. Gleyber Torres. Did you know Torres is hitting .311 in high leverage situations this year? He’s not hitting for any power in those spots (.400 SLG), but I just need a single. He’s also a career .331 hitter in high leverage situations. Gleyber’s always had that clutch gene. I’m willing to hear arguments that he belongs ahead of Rizzo and even LeMahieu.

6. Joey Gallo. There are exploitable holes in his swing that make him a big strikeout risk, and I have to assume we’re facing the other team’s ace reliever in this situation. That said, Gallo is less likely to make an out than anyone else on the board at this point. Nothing wrong with taking the walk and passing the baton if it comes to that in this situation.

7. Gary Sanchez. Everything I said about Gallo applies to Sanchez, except Sanchez is more likely to be at the platoon disadvantage because there are more righties than lefties in baseball. Did you know Gary is running an 11.8% walk rate this year? Or that he’s hitting .290/.421/.645 (172 wRC+) in high leverage situations? True story.

8. Gio Urshela. Love Gio, but I’m pretty sure he’d swing at a pitch to the backstop right now.

?. TBA. Who’s playing, Brett Gardner or Luke Voit? Knowing Aaron Boone, it would probably be Gardner. He can’t seem to help himself. I’d rank Gardner ninth behind Urshela and Voit seventh between Gallo and Sanchez. Compared to Voit, Gallo is less likely to make an out, and Sanchez is less likely to get the base hit I need.

UPDATE: I just realized first base is open in this scenario, so we're looking for the player who is good enough to get the big hit but not good enough to get intentionally walked. I'd say Gleyber. The on-deck batter will influence the decision, but assuming a neutral on-deck hitter, I think Judge, Stanton, and Rizzo definitely get walked. LeMahieu most likely just based on his last two seasons. Torres hits that sweet spot of "you're not going to pitch around him entirely, but he can still beat you." My bad for misunderstanding the question.

Matt asks: Has there ever been a division with 4 teams above 90 wins? Right now four AL East teams are above 80 wins and 90 seems possible for all of them.

Yes with a catch. Divisional play began in 1969 and since then only one division has had four 90-win teams: AL East in 1978. The AL East standings that year:

1. Yankees: 100-63 (won a Game 163 tiebreaker, the Bucky Dent game)
2. Red Sox: 99-64 (1.0 GB) (lost the Bucky Dent game)
3. Brewers: 93-69 (6.5 GB)
4. Orioles: 90-71 (9.0 GB)
5. Tigers: 86-76 (13.5 GB)
6. Cleveland: 69-90 (29.0 GB)
7. Blue Jays: 59-102 (40.0 GB)

Back then there were two seven-team divisions in the AL and two six-team divisions in the NL, and more teams per division equals more opportunities for 90-win clubs. Every few years we get three 90-win teams in the same division (most recently the 2018 AL East), but four 90-win teams has only happened once, and never in the five teams per division (or Wild Card) era.

The Rays have already won 90 games and the Blue Jays, Red Sox, and Yankees are all on pace to win 90 games. The Yankees play six of their final nine games against the Blue Jays and Red Sox though, so these teams are going to take wins away from each other. Four 90-win teams is mathematically possible, though getting there is a little convoluted given the schedule.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)