September 17th, 2021: Gardner, Torres, Green, Chapman, Cole, Mailbag

The Yankees lost eight games to the Orioles this season. The other three AL East teams have lost 10 games to the Orioles combined. If the Yankees miss the postseason, I’m not sure losing eight times to the O’s will be the No. 1 reason (all those coughed up four-run leads in the late innings top the list for me), but it’ll be up there. Awful, awful loss yesterday. To today’s thoughts.

1. Winning season streak lives on. The winning season streak is alive and well. The Yankees won their 82nd game Wednesday night, clinching their 29th consecutive winning season. Their last losing season was 1992, when they went 76-86. This is the second longest consecutive winning season streak in baseball history. The leaderboard (via James Smyth):

1. 1926-64 Yankees: 39 seasons
2. 1993-present Yankees: 29 seasons
3. 1967-82 Orioles: 18 seasons
4. 1951-67 White Sox: 17 seasons
5. 1967-82 Red Sox: 16 seasons

The current streak is the second longest in baseball history and the third longest in the history of the four major North American sports. The NHL’s Montreal Canadiens sneak into the No. 2 spot with 32 straight winning seasons from 1952-83. The second longest active streak in the four major sports belongs to the NHL’s Pittsburgh Penguins at 15 straight winning seasons.

There are countless Yankees fans who’ve never seen a losing season. I mean people who were born early in the streak, went through their entire childhoods, became adults, and brought other Yankees fans into the world. The worst season those people have seen is 84 wins (the Yankees played at an 89-win pace last year). When that’s as bad as it gets, you have it pretty good.

Living through a bad season as a baseball fan is way different than living through a bad season in other sports because they play every day and the season is so damn long. Knowing your team is out of it in June or July sucks. Imagine going into a season knowing your team won’t be competitive? Now imagine doing that for multiple years in a row during a tank job? Oof.

As much as I complain about the Yankees -- let’s be real, the 2021 Yankees have earned a lot of complaining -- I make sure to note the winning season streak every year because a) it’s a cool thing, and b) I appreciate the Yankees never being truly bad. Being a baseball fan is a big commitment and having that commitment rewarded with a winning record is not insignificant to me.

It shouldn’t be too much to ask that your team make an effort to compete each year, but it apparently is these days. We can quibble with their methods (luxury tax plan, sign this guy over that guy, etc.), but the Yankees try to compete every single season. Fans of other teams should be so lucky. Long live the winning season streak. I look forward to doing this again in 2022.

2. Weekday observations. It was only a matter of time until Joey Gallo got hot. He’s too good. Gallo has done deep in three straight starts and four of his last five starts. Katie Sharp notes he is the fifth player to hit 35+ homers in a season split between two American League teams. Two of the other four won the World Series with the Yankees (1996 Cecil Fielder and 2000 David Justice), so hopefully Joey joins the club. A few thoughts on the last few games.

The Gardy Party rages on

Earlier in his career Brett Gardner had a tendency to put together productive first halves, then crater in the second half. The prevailing theory was he wore himself down with his hard-nosed play. The last few years though, Gardner has done the opposite. He started slow then finished strong, and made himself tough to take out of the lineup down the stretch.

• 2019: 109 wRC+ first half and 123 wRC+ second half
• 2020: 79 wRC+ first half and 132 wRC+ second half (shortened season)
• 2021: 75 wRC+ first half and 119 wRC+ second half

“Obviously you don't want to be in a situation where it's the last inning and you're down a run or two,” Gardner told Savannah McCann following his game-winning two-run single Wednesday. “You want to be up there with the game on the line. I feel like I've been having pretty good at-bats recently and seeing the ball well.”

Gardner has a 119 wRC+ in the second half and he’s been even better lately, going 11-for-35 (.314) with two doubles, two homers, and a triple in his last 10 games. Five extra-base hits in his last 10 games after having only five in his previous 37 games. Also, the at-bat quality is still there. Even at his worst, Gardner can still grind out an at-bat with the best of ‘em.

The recent hot streak has helped the Yankees win games, first and foremost, and it also makes it easier to swallow Luke Voit spending so much time on the bench in a postseason race. I still think Voit should play everyday, but it’s not like Gardner isn’t producing. He’s hitting, he’s getting big hits, and he still plays strong defense. The Gardy Party isn't over yet.

“That’s the guy you want up,” Tyler Wade told Todd Karpovich about Gardner’s game-winning single Wednesday. “He’s been in those situations all the time for 10 or 11 years. His heart beats really slow and he knows exactly what he needs to do and he came through tonight.”

Oh Gleyber

Gleyber Torres is both 8-for-27 (.297) in his last seven games and a total mess. His defensive problems have transferred over to second base and they’re clearly weighing on him. Gleyber’s body language tells us his confidence is shot. To his credit, he hasn’t taken his defensive issues to the plate. His at-bats have been good. But yeah, his glove is a bigger problem than ever.

“Initially, (the runner) kinda freezing on him a little bit just threw him off,” Aaron Boone told Zach Braziller about Gleyber not throwing to second base on a potential double play ball in the eighth inning Wednesday (video). “Obviously it was a play he should’ve ended up going to second. He had the time, but ended up taking the out at first.”

Cedric Mullins is one of the fastest runners in the game, but even with the bobble, Gleyber had plenty of time to throw to second and start the double play. At worst, he could’ve gotten the force out at second and kept the tying run out of scoring position, and the play at first would’ve been bang-bang. It was probably a double play though. Look where Mullins was when the ball got to Torres:

On Tuesday, Gleyber booted a routine double play ground ball (video), then recovered to turn a more difficult grounder into a double play on the next batter (video). He was removed later in the game and it appeared to be a defensive move, but Boone said he pulled Torres for not running out a ground ball in the eighth inning without actually saying it.

“I talked to him after the game last night and we’ll kind of leave it at that,” Boone told Braziller following Tuesday’s game. “(Replacing him defensively is) not something that I’m planning on doing necessarily. There were things that came up in the game last night, that I felt it was necessary to get him out of there.”

At this point the Yankees should pull Torres for defense in close games. There’s something to be said for sticking with your players and showing confidence in them, but a postseason race with less than three weeks to go in the regular season is not the time to do it. The Yankees need their best team on the field at all times and that doesn’t include Gleyber in the late innings.

The best defensive alignment probably has Wade at short, DJ LeMahieu at second, and Gio Urshela at third. There’s a case to be made for replacing Torres with Rougned Odor in the late innings and leaving Wade available to pinch-run, but do that and you’re sacrificing defense (at short and third) for a pinch-running situation that may never come. I dunno.

Gleyber’s confidence in the field appears shot, and even if it’s not, his defense has been so bad lately that it wouldn’t matter even if he were the most confident player in the world. Torres owns a .286/.334/.444 (108 wRC+) line in his last 37 games. That’s not 2018-19 Torres but it’s good, so get him his three or four at-bats, then pull him for defense late. It’s an obvious move now.

“I feel like he’s responded to some adversity within the game,” Boone told Greg Joyce yesterday. “That’s been important to see. I continue to say, if we can get him going like we know he’s capable of, he’s a real difference-maker for us. So anything’s possible here moving forward with how we align things, but feel like it’s important to try to get him going too.”

Oh Greenie

Three straight appearances with a homer and six homers in the last 13 appearances for Chad Green. Five of the six allowed the other team to either tie the game or take the lead in the late innings, which is a function of Green’s role. He’s a high leverage guy who pitches almost exclusively in close games. That’s been his role for five years now.

I said this the other day and it’s still true: I think Green is worn down. He’s one out away from tying his career high in innings and a) there’s still 15 games to play, and b) this is after a short season a year ago. Green ranks top 15 in leverage index (i.e. a lot of stressful situations) and is fourth among all relievers in pitches thrown this season:

1. Bryan Shaw, Cleveland: 1,233 pitches
2. Chris Stratton, Pirates: 1,231 pitches
3. Duane Underwood Jr., Pirates: 1,177 pitches
4. Chad Green, Yankees: 1,173 pitches
5. Steve Cishek, Angels: 1,138 pitches

Green’s velocity is fine. His average fastball velocity has actually increased each of the last three months and is a season best 96.1 mph in September. Green’s vertical release point is steadily dropping, however, and a lower arm slot is a potential indicator of fatigue.

“I’ve used him a ton, and probably unfairly a little bit to him where he’s always the guy that carries that high leverage workload when we’re staying away (from other guys),” Boone told Gary Phillips prior to Tuesday’s game. “Obviously, we try to protect him as much as we can, but the reality is we've leaned on him a ton. I still feel like he's one of the outstanding relievers in this sport and I feel like he’s actually throwing the ball like that.”

What does Boone do the day after essentially admitting Green is overworked? He asks him to get five outs with a one-run lead. Green’s 25th and final pitch sailed into the left field seats for a go-ahead two-run home run Wednesday. Fortunately the offense picked Green up, but it was another homer that flipped the game. After the game, Boone again called it unfair that Green is used so much (if only there were something he could do about it).

“Obviously, he’s been leaned on a lot, probably even a little unfairly and there’s some of that,” Boone told Braziller following Wednesday’s game. “We’ll try to get him days here when we can to keep him fresh. But he’s going to be a guy we go to in big spots moving forward and he’s going to deliver.”

The Yankees stuck with Aroldis Chapman as their closer despite all his issues earlier this year and it seems they’re going to stick with Green as their top setup man despite his homer issues because that’s how they drew it up and that’s how it’s supposed to work. It is obviously not working though. We’ve seen enough back-breaking homers to know that.

This is where Boone has to actually (gasp!) manage. He can’t continue to default to Green in the seventh or eighth inning because those are his innings. He’s too much of a liability. Clay Holmes and Wandy Peralta (and Albert Abreu and Joely Rodriguez) should handle those spots for the time being. They’re the best pitchers for the job right now.

As I said in the Torres section, there’s something to be said for showing confidence in your players, but a late season postseason race is not the time to do it. The games are too important. Green has been one of the best relievers in baseball the last five years. He isn’t that guy right now though. He needs to be de-emphasized as the Yankees fight for a Wild Card spot.

The return of Chapman’s splitter

Aroldis Chapman’s splitter has made a triumphant return. He used the pitch to great effectiveness early in the season, scaled back on it during the summer months, and is back to throwing it a bunch. Chapman pitched three straight days and four times in five days recently, and threw 10 splitters among 53 pitches, or 19%. That’s way up from midseason.

My working theory: Chapman’s cracked fingernail earlier this year was a bigger issue than the Yankees let on (that would fit with their tendency to downplay injuries), and he had to scale back on the splitter because he couldn’t throw it properly. Now the fingernail has healed (or healed enough) and Chapman can throw it again. Maybe? I dunno, just a guess.

Those 10 splitters in Chapman’s last four appearances generated seven swings and six misses. Even with his midseason awfulness, the splitter has an insane -- insane -- 67.4% whiff rate. The league average for splitters is 37.3%. It is truly one of the most dominant pitches in the sport, at least when Chapman actually throws it (and his fingernail theoretically isn’t an issue).

Chapman looked great in Baltimore, the best he’s looked in weeks, but it was also five batters and the Orioles, so who knows. The increase in splitter usage is happening though. That’s real. The pitch is back. It doesn’t solve his fastball command problem or his hanging slider problem, but the splitter does give Chapman another (high quality) weapon, and that’s not nothing.

Odor’s roster spot

It’s time to discuss Rougned Odor’s roster spot. He pinch-hit twice during the Mets series (in a National League park), hasn’t started any of the last eight games, and is in a 2-for-39 (.051) with 18 strikeouts skid. Since Aug. 1st, Odor is hitting .137/.255/.253 (41 wRC+) in 110 plate appearances. He’s been terrible and the Yankees are right to not play him during a postseason race.

Andrew Velazquez is almost certainly the better use of a roster spot at this point. Neither guy will hit much, but Velazquez is better at everything else. He’s better defensively, he’s more versatile, and he’s faster. The Yankees could use him as a defensive replacement all over the infield or as a pinch-runner. I’m not quite sure what Odor brings to the table*.

* Odor is a great energy guy who is clearly invested in the success of his teammates. That’s great. It’s also not a good enough reason to keep him on the roster. Release him and make a coach if he's that important in the dugout. Plus Velazquez is a pretty high energy too.

There are two problems here. One, the 10-day rule means Velazquez is not eligible to rejoin the Yankees until next Wednesday. This is not a move the Yankees can make now. And two, Odor carries a $0 luxury tax hit, and clearly the Yankees value that. 12 days worth of Velazquez’s league minimum-ish salary shouldn’t derail the luxury tax plan, but why would the Yankees risk it this late in the season?

I’m willing to hear arguments that Odor in MLB and Velazquez in Triple-A is the best plan from a “preserve depth” standpoint. I’d counter by saying there are fewer than three weeks remaining in the season, reducing the odds you need that depth, and the Yankees are in a postseason race and should field their best, most functional roster. I think that includes Velazquez, not Odor.

The fact Velazquez can not be called up for another few days means this is a non-issue (the Yankees could dump Odor and call up Estevan Florial or another arm until Velazquez is eligible, but I don’t see it), and frankly, they’ve stuck with Odor this long, so I don’t see them making a change now. I’m just not sure what he offers other than good vibes.

3. Cole’s schedule. Gerrit Cole returned from his hamstring tightness Tuesday night and was just okay. He needed 108 pitches to get through five (scoreless) innings against a bad Orioles lineup, and he walked three for only the third time this year. Cole’s stuff was plenty good (he hit 100.5 mph, his sixth fastest pitch of the season) but his command was rough.

“It felt pretty good,” Cole told Todd Karpovich about his hamstring. “It was a little tough to move around with the wrap on there, but the leg responded very well.”

As long as Cole is healthy, he’ll be fine. Tuesday was a grind but it was also his first start back from an injury, and he had a longer layoff than usual. I’m not worried. Cole is literally the last player on the roster I’m worried about. Would’ve been nice if his return start went better, but he looked healthy and the Yankees won, and that’s really all that matters to me.

Looking ahead, Cole has three regular season starts remaining, and he’s currently lined up to start the Wild Card Game with an extra day of rest or a Game 163 tiebreaker on normal rest. Those would both be win or go home games and Cole is lined up for both, so the Yankees can’t mess with his schedule at all. He starts every fifth day (not every fifth game, every fifth day) from here on out, no questions asked.

The Yankees have 15 games remaining, so let’s lay out the potential pitching schedule. Here’s how things could shake out these last two weeks and two days (days of rest in parenthesis):

• Fri., Sept. 17th vs. Cleveland: Corey Kluber (4) (announced)
• Sat., Sept. 18th vs. Cleveland: Luis Gil (4) (announced)
• Sun., Sept. 19th vs. Cleveland: Gerrit Cole (4) (announced)
• Mon., Sept. 20th vs. Rangers: Nestor Cortes (4)
• Tues., Sept. 21st vs. Rangers: Jordan Montgomery (4)
• Weds., Sept. 22nd vs. Rangers: Kluber (4)
• Thursday, Sept. 23rd: off!
• Fri., Sept. 24th at Red Sox: Cole (4, skip Gil)
• Sat., Sept. 25th at Red Sox: Cortes (4)
• Sun., Sept. 26th at Red Sox: Montgomery (4)
• Mon., Sept. 27th: off!
• Tues., Sept. 28th at Blue Jays: Kluber (4)
• Weds., Sept. 29th at Blue Jays: Cole (4)
• Thurs., Sept. 30th at Blue Jays: Cortes (4)
• Fri., Oct. 1st vs. Rays: Montgomery (4)
• Sat., Oct. 2nd vs. Rays: Gil (13, latest the Yankees could push their fifth starter back)
• Sun., Oct. 3rd vs. Rays: Kluber (4)
• Mon., Oct. 4th: off! (or a Game 163 tiebreaker with Cole on 4 days rest)
• Tues., Oct. 5th: Wild Card Game (Cole on 5 days rest or Cortes on 4 days rest)

The Yankees wanted to use Gil as a spot sixth starter during this 20 games in 20 days stretch to give everyone extra rest, but they lost that luxury when Cole and Jameson Taillon got hurt, and the Wild Card race tightened up. Every game is so important now that voluntarily using a lesser pitcher to give everyone rest is a non-option. It’s crunch time. No more extra rest.

Given the standings, that Fenway Park series next week will be very important, and the Yankees currently have their three best pitchers lined up to start that series, so hooray for that. I don’t see them altering their pitching schedule over the next week with that series on the horizon. Those three games against the Red Sox could very well decide a Wild Card spot (I'm of the belief the Blue Jays are going to run away with the first Wild Card spot in short order, but we'll see).

If the Yankees get stuck playing a Game 163 tiebreaker, Cole would start on normal rest, then the Yankees would have to start Cortes on normal rest in the Wild Card Game. And hey, that’s probably the right call given how well Nestor has pitched. The only other options would be Montgomery on short rest or a bullpen game, neither of which is appealing.

Whether does Taillon fit when he returns? Beats me. He threw a bullpen session earlier this week, so it seems the ankle is doing better. He would step into Gil’s rotation spot, I assume. The only questions are when exactly does he do that, and how does it alter the rotation schedule? Again, the Yankees can’t change Cole’s schedule. Not unless they don’t want him lined up for the Wild Card Game or a potential Game 163. Worry about this when Taillon’s ready to return.

I am sure of one thing: Cole will start on Sept. 19th, 24th, and 29th as laid out above. How the Yankees fill in the gaps around him (especially once Taillon returns) is a little more up in the air, though the Yankees won’t do something that takes Cole off schedule for the Wild Card Game or a Game 163 tiebreaker. He’s locked into starting every fifth day the rest of the season.

4. Postseason math. The regular season ends in two weeks and two days, and right now we’re all scoreboard watching multiple teams every night. The Blue Jays and Red Sox are the primary Wild Card competition. The Athletics and Mariners are still alive, though they have slipped back a bit. It’s essentially a three-team race now. With that in mind, let’s do some postseason math and look at some postseason scenarios, shall we?

Wild Card race

As noted, the Wild Card race is down to three teams (Blue Jays, Red Sox, Yankees) with two others kinda sorta maybe hanging around (Athletics and Mariners). For posterity, here are the Wild Card standings as of Friday morning:

1. Blue Jays: 82-64
2. Red Sox: 83-65 (trail by .001 percentage points)
3. Yankees: 82-65 (0.5 GB)
4. Athletics: 79-67 (3 GB)
5. Mariners: 78-68 (4 GB)

That loss yesterday put a huge dent in the ol’ postseason odds. It put the Yankees behind the Blue Jays and Red Sox in the standings, and also knocked a game against the league’s worst team off the schedule. Their postseason odds dropped nearly 10 percentage points with that one loss. That’s brutal. Look at this:

Current records and projections suggest it will take 92 wins to make the postseason, in which case the Yankees need to go at least 10-5 in their final 15 games. The Yankees have five series remaining and need to take two of three in each to have a chance, and will probably need to mix in a sweep somewhere just to be safe. They’ve made life very difficult on themselves.

The remaining schedules

On paper, the Yankees are at a disadvantage. They play Cleveland this weekend, then get three games against the Rangers next week. After that, the Yankees close out the season with nine games against the Blue Jays (in Toronto), Red Sox (in Boston), and Rays (in the Bronx). That’s a rough finish. No one said this would be easy though.

The Blue Jays, meanwhile, still have two (!) series remaining with the Twins plus one more with the Orioles. The Yankees are the only winning team the Red Sox will see the rest of the season. Otherwise they’ll see the Mets, Nationals, and Orioles (twice). While the Yankees play the Rays the final weekend, the Blue Jays get the O’s and the Red Sox get the Nats. Groan.

Any team can beat any other team on any given night in this game. A favorable schedule doesn’t equal guaranteed wins. Need I remind you the Yankees recently lost series to the Angels, Orioles, and Mets? Still, give me a choice and I’d rather play the Twins and Orioles and Nationals a bunch than close out the season against the Blue Jays, Red Sox, and Rays.

(After this weekend the Athletics will play only the Astros and Mariners the rest of the season, and the Mariners will play only the Angels and Athletics. Advantage Seattle.)

Tiebreaker scenarios

The Yankees are one of five teams fighting for the two Wild Card spots and we already know their home field advantage tiebreaker scenarios. They’re based on head-to-head record and the season series have all been decided:

• vs. Athletics: Yankees win 4-3
• vs. Blue Jays: Blue Jays win 10-6 (still three games remaining)
• vs. Mariners: Yankees win 5-2
• vs. Red Sox: Red Sox win 10-6 (still three games remaining)

The upcoming Blue Jays and Red Sox series will be very supremely important for the Wild Card race overall. For home field advantage, they’re meaningless. The Yankees have already lost the season series to those two teams. They hold the home field advantage tiebreaker over the two AL West teams but not the two AL East teams. Bummer.

The home field advantage tiebreaker only matters if the Yankees finish with the same record as another team, which is possible given how close everyone is bunched together in the standings. If the Yankees and another team tie for the second Wild Card spot, they would play a Game 163 tiebreaker at the ballpark of whichever team won the season series.

If the Yankees and another team finish with identical records for the two Wild Card spots (i.e. they’re both making the Wild Card Game), there is no tiebreaker game. They’ll just play the Wild Card Game at the ballpark of whichever team won the season series. Got that? These are the only two scenarios in which the home field advantage tiebreaker matters.

So, long story short, the Yankees need to finish ahead of the Blue Jays and Red Sox to host the Wild Card Game (or a Game 163 tiebreaker) against those clubs. They can settle for a tie with the A’s or Mariners, who of course are further back in the race.

What about a three-team tie?

We’re overdue for tiebreaker chaos. There were two Game 163 tiebreakers to decide the NL Central and NL West in 2018, but the losers of those games made the postseason as the Wild Card teams, lowering the stakes. It’s been a while since we had a winner-take-all Game 163 (the last was Rays vs. Rangers for the second Wild Card spot in 2013).

Given how bunched together the Blue Jays, Red Sox, and Yankees are in the standings, a three-team tie is possible. Three teams for two Wild Card spots is a little less exciting than three teams for one Wild Card spot, but beggars can’t be choosers. I am pro-baseball chaos and a three-team tie would qualify as chaos.

What happens in the event of a three-team tie? Well, I looked at the process for a three-team tie for two Wild Card spots at CBS a few years ago, so I’ll refer you to that. Here’s what happens if there’s a three-team tie for one Wild Card spot.:

• The three clubs are designated Club A, Club B, and Club C using a long cookbook formula based on head-to-head records, run differential, etc.
• Club A hosts Club B and the loser goes home.
• The winner hosts Club C to determine the Wild Card spot.

Even though you have to go on the road, you want to be Club C in that scenario because you only need to win one game to get a Wild Card spot. Clubs A and B both need to win two games to get the Wild Card spot. A massive three-team tie sounds like it would be a blast if any teams other than the Yankees were involved. The Yankees being involved might kill me.

(For those who skip my CBS article, here’s the short version of a three-team tie for the two Wild Card spots: Club A hosts Club B and the winner gets one Wild Card Spot. The loser then plays Club C to decide the other Wild Card spot.)

What about the AL East?

The Yankees are nine games behind the Rays with 15 games remaining. Mathematically, they are still alive in the AL East race. FanGraphs puts their division title odds at 0.2%, so it’s an extreme long shot, but it is possible. Tampa is 7-8 in their last 15 games. Too bad the Yankees fell flat after the 13-game winning streak. This could’ve been more interesting.

Because the Yankees and Rays close out the regular season with three games in the Bronx, the best chance at the AL East title involves going into that series three games back. The Yankees would control their own destiny in that case. They could sweep those last three games, then force a Game 163 tiebreaker to decide the AL East title. (The Yankees would win the season series in that scenario and host the Game 163 tiebreaker).

Here’s what the Yankees need to do in the 12 games between now and then to pull to within three games going into that final series:

• Rays go 0-12: Yankees go 6-6
• Rays go 1-11: Yankees go 7-5
• Rays go 2-10: Yankees go 8-4
• Rays go 3-9: Yankees go 9-3
• Rays go 4-8: Yankees go 10-2
• Rays go 5-7: Yankees go 11-1
• Rays go 6-6: Yankees go 12-0
• Rays go 7-5 or better: Yankees eliminated from AL East race

In all likelihood the Rays will clinch the AL East title long before that final series while the Yankees are still fighting for a postseason spot. You know Tampa would consider it a privilege to keep the Yankees out of the postseason. I wouldn’t count on them taking their foot off the gas leading up to October. They’ll play that final series tough.

5. Rapid fire thoughts. Two notable injury updates. First, Jonathan Loaisiga (shoulder) is expected to begin a throwing program today. That likely means play catch. It’s only Step 1 but it is an important step in the road back. Loaisiga would then have to throw a bullpen session and maybe a simulated game before rejoining the Yankees. Not sure there’s enough time for a full blown minor league rehab assignment. And second, Luis Severino (shoulder) will throw a two-inning simulated game today. If that goes well, he could begin a rehab assignment next week. Given the whole Tommy John surgery thing and now two setbacks, I can’t imagine the Yankees would rush Severino back, though they’re running out of time to get him back in any capacity. Severino returning as a short reliever to save the bullpen the final 7-10 days of the season would be neat … So long, Brooks Kriske. He was designated for assignment earlier this week to clear a 40-man roster spot for the return of Sal Romano, and the Orioles claimed him on waivers. Kriske in parts of two seasons with the Yankees: 11.1 IP, 15 H, 20 R, 19 ER, 13 BB, 15 K, 6 HR, 7 WP. The guy filled up the box score, if nothing else. Kriske should get more of an opportunity with the O’s than he will with the Yankees, so it’s a good move for him … And finally, the Mariners will host the 2023 All-Star Game. Seattle last hosted it in 2001, so a 22-year wait. Three of the next five All-Star Games are accounted for:

• 2022: Dodger Stadium (they were supposed to host it last year)
• 2023: T-Mobile Park
• 2024: open!
• 2025: open!
• 2026: Citizens Bank Park (to coincide with the 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence)

I’m pretty sure I’ve said this before but I’ll say it again: I think the Yankees are on the docket to host an All-Star Game at some point in the back half of the decade, likely closer to 2030 than 2027. The Cubs (last hosted in 1990), Blue Jays (last hosted in 1991), and Rangers (new park) all figure to get All-Star Games soon, ditto the Braves (lost the 2021 game) once MLB feels the heat has died down. The Athletics (last hosted in 1987) and Rays (never hosted) will have to wait until they get new ballparks, it seems. The Yankees last hosted the All-Star Game in 2008, the final year of the old Yankee Stadium. A 20-ish year wait is not unprecedented (look at the Mariners) plus the new Yankee Stadium has yet to host. I think it’ll happen within a decade.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Joseph asks: Would Jose Ramirez be a potential off-season target? Indians seem like they’re in the middle ground of contending/blowing it up but what would he realistically cost?

Ramirez would be atop my list of offseason trade targets (among players who might actually become available). He’s pretty much exactly what the Yankees need as a low strikeout switch-hitter with 30-homer power and well-above-average third base defense. Gio Urshela is cool and all, but Ramirez is a demonstrably better player. And he’s only 28 too.

Cleveland has a long history of trading their best players (Trevor Bauer, Mike Clevinger, Corey Kluber, Francisco Lindor, etc.) before they reach free agency and Ramirez has another two years remaining on his ultra-affordable contract. His club options for 2022 and 2023 are worth $11M and $13M, respectively. Ramirez is a steal at those salaries, yet also expensive for Cleveland.

To their credit, Cleveland never tears it down and rebuilds. They try to win every year, and the AL Central is so weak that keeping Ramirez and trying to make a run in 2022 isn’t crazy. That said, the same was true with Lindor last year, and they traded him. Players of Ramirez’s caliber don’t get traded two years prior to free agency often. I see two possible trade benchmarks:

• Marcell Ozuna: Traded for a top 75 global prospect (Sandy Alcantara), two top 10 team prospects (Zac Gallen and Magneuris Sierra), and a non-top-30 team prospect (Daniel Castano).
• J.T. Realmuto: Traded for five years of a young MLB player (Jorge Alfaro), a top 20 global prospect (Sixto Sanchez), a top 30 team prospect (Will Stewart), and $250,000 in international bonus money.

Ozuna and Realmuto were both star players two years away from free agency and both fetched four-player packages (if we consider the international bonus money the equivalent to a non-top-30 team prospect). Like those two, Ramirez is a star player two years away from free agency. I’d argue he’s better than those two, but we’re in the ballpark, I think.

One thing to keep in mind: Cleveland tends to go quantity over quality with their trades. They did it with Bauer, Clevinger, and Lindor. There was no top tier prospect or stud young big leaguer in those trades, though Cleveland wound up with 3-4 (or more) good pieces for each. It’s similar to what the Rangers did with Joey Gallo. Several good prospects over one or two top prospects.

If Cleveland looks to do the quantity over quality thing again, it could be ideal for the Yankees since they are apparently loath to trade their very best prospects (Jasson Dominguez, Oswald Peraza, and Anthony Volpe), but are willing to gut the middle of their farm system. For a guy like Ramirez, I think you have to be willing to discuss Peraza. Peraza can’t be a dealbreaker.

Hell, at this point don’t the Yankees have to put Gleyber Torres on the table? It would be three years of Torres for two of Ramirez, and I’d happily trade one fewer year of team control for what should be a massive upgrade in performance. Cleveland did take Amed Rosario, who was similar to Torres as a fading former top prospect with three years of control, in the Lindor deal.

Does Torres or Peraza, Luis Gil, and two others from the middle of the farm system (Everson Pereira, Ken Waldichuk, Austin Wells, etc.) work for Ramirez? There’s no slam dunk future cornerstone there, but there’s a lot of good (potentially very good players), and those are the guys Cleveland has targeted in the recent past. Feels light to me though.

At a minimum, the Yankees have to call and ask about Ramirez this winter. He’s approaching the point where Cleveland trades their top guys, and the Yankees need an entirely new infield, it seems. Ramirez is excellent and affordable, and the Yankees should always get involved when players like that become available.

John asks: Had a player comp I wanted to run by you to get your thoughts. Minus some horrible off the field actions, is there a chance that Gleyber follows the career arc of Starlin Castro? Tons of prospect shine, early impact with the bat and then leveling off to a league average bat with below average defense up the middle that forced a move away from SS. He never quite seemed to live up to the early hype he created for himself but still turned in about a decade of dependably 100ish ops+. Obviously this would be a huge disappointment if we thought this was a possibility two years ago, but with what he has shown of late does this seem fair?

Given what we know now, yeah, the Starlin Castro career arc does seem possible for Gleyber Torres. Castro arrived at age 20 (one year younger than Torres) and wasn’t as productive as Torres in his first two seasons, but there are similarities.

Castro years 1-2: .304/.343/.422 (104 wRC+)
Castro year 3: .283/.323/.430 (100 wRC+)
Castro year 4: .245/.284/.347 (74 wRC+)

Torres years 1-2: .275/.338/.511 (123 wRC+)
Torres year 3: .243/.356/.369 (106 wRC+)
Torres year 4: .252/.325/.349 (88 wRC+)

Years 1-2 were real good and reasons to be excited about a recent top prospect in his early 20s. Year 3 was “okay, he’s struggling a bit, but sometimes players have down years.” Then Year 4 it was what the hell? This guy is playing his way out of town.

In Starlin’s case, he never really developed power, and his ultra-aggressive approach caught up to him. Pitchers kept feeding him breaking balls off the plate and he kept chasing. He was still doing it when he was a Yankee, seven years into his career. Torres is a disciplined hitter. He’s just lost the ability to drive the ball. I have no idea what happened.

Castro had what proved to be a career year in Year 5 (.292/.339/.438 and 117 wRC+), then he settled in as a consistent league average-ish hitter. He stayed at shortstop until his seventh year in the big leagues. Torres has already moved off short in Year 4. Not a perfect match but there are definitely some parallels here. No doubt.

One key difference: the Cubs stunk when Castro came up. He came up in 2010 and was supposed to be the savior, though Chicago didn’t return to the postseason until 2015. They were tanking and could afford to remain patient. Torres jumped right into the lineup for a team with its eyes on the World Series. It’s tougher for the team to remain patient in that scenario.

I’m not sure what will happen with Gleyber this offseason. Selling low on him would feel like a mistake -- he’s still 24! -- but it also feels like he would benefit from a change of scenery. I say keep him and hope a new coaching staff (if the Yankees get one) can get him back to where he was in 2018 and 2019. That said, I’d certainly listen to trade offers. No reason not to now.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)