August 10th, 2021: Torres, Rizzo, Lineup, Bullpen, Gil, Ridings, Heaney, Severino, Chapman, Draft

Going 9-2 against the Marlins, Orioles, Mariners, and Royals (with two more games to play in Kansas City) is what the Yankees needed to do these last 11 days, but geez, I wish they’d win games convincingly once in a while rather than scratch and claw for everything. The Yankees are on pace to go 90-72 with 50 games remaining. To today’s thoughts.

1. Torres to the injured list. The Yankees stole 20 bases (fewest in MLB) in 25 attempts (also the fewest in MLB) in the first half. They’ve stolen 20 bases (most in MLB) in 23 attempts (also the most in MLB) in the second half. The newfound emphasis on speed has come at a cost: Gleyber Torres hurt his thumb sliding into second on a stolen base Sunday.

Specifically, Torres suffered a left thumb sprain, and Aaron Boone said he expects him to miss 10-20 days. Boone also admitted Torres hasn’t seen the specialist yet. Why he said 10-20 days before Gleyber saw the specialist, I have no idea, but he did. Torres will miss at least 10 days and it could be closer to three weeks, meaning he’ll return right as rosters expand on Sept. 1st.

“I would say we got good news,” Boone told Bryan Hoch about Gleyber’s injury. “I think we were concerned that it was going to be more serious. The initial thought is 10-20 days, but realistically, we’ll have a better idea in the next couple of days … I think we were kind of expecting the worst.”

The Yankees currently have an MLB leading 20 (!) players on the injured list (five COVID and 15 injuries), and they’ve used the injured list a franchise record 41 times this year (15 times since the All-Star break!). The Yankees have most of a contending roster on the shelf (someone did the math and this is a projected +35 WAR roster):

C Gary Sanchez (COVID)
1B Anthony Rizzo (COVID, more on him in a bit)
2B Gleyber Torres (thumb)
SS Gio Urshela (hamstring)
3B Miguel Andujar (wrist)
LF Clint Frazier (vision)
CF Aaron Hicks (wrist)
RF Trey Amburgey (hamstring)
DH Chris Gittens (ankle)
Bench Tim Locastro (knee)

SP Gerrit Cole (COVID)
SP Luis Severino (elbow)
SP Corey Kluber (shoulder)
SP Jordan Montgomery (COVID)
SP Domingo German (shoulder)

CL Aroldis Chapman (elbow, more on him in a bit too)
RP Darren O’Day (hamstring)
RP Mike King (finger)
RP Clarke Schmidt (elbow)
RP Yoendrys Gomez (COVID, he’s on the MLB list to clear a 40-man spot)

Torres has not been good this year overall (.253/.328/.351 and 92 wRC+), though he had three hits before the injury Sunday, and was hitting .300/.337/.500 (125 wRC+) in 22 games since the All-Star break. You had to squint your eyes a bit, but there were signs Gleyber was turning a corner. Now he’ll have to hit pause on his season at an inopportune time.

To replace Torres the Yankees called up utility man (and Bronx native) Andrew Velazquez, who was hitting .283/.367/.471 (124 wRC+) in Triple-A overall and .307/.386/.531 (144 wRC+) since June 1st. He was also 26-for-29 stealing bases, so if you’re a fan of the Green Light Yankees, he’s up your alley. Velazquez can play just about anywhere too, which is nice.

Urshela suffered a setback over the weekend and won’t be activated when eligible tomorrow. He didn’t travel with the team, so it seems the earliest he will return is when the Yankees return home next week. Whenever Urshela does come back, he should play short. The Yankees are in a heated postseason race and they shouldn’t play Tyler Wade everyday.

Until then, the Yankees have to roll with Wade and Velasquez, neither of which is ideal. The defense will be improved, which is nice, though the Yankees are already pretty good at run prevention. They badly need to get better at run creation and replacing Torres, even the 2021 version, with Wade and Velasquez is a considerable downgrade. It is what it is though.

The Yankees are battling two other teams (maybe three) for one postseason spot and the injuries are really piling up. They’re shorthanded on the infield, the rotation is decimated, and they’re on Plan B at too many positions. This group has overcome similar injury deluges in the past, so we know they can do it, but damn yo. Can we get a break? Even for just a little bit?

“Even though we have a lot of really important key players down, we also have a lot of players that are capable of going out and playing at a very high level and winning games,” Boone told Hoch. “That is solely the focus.”

2. Weekend observations. After Sunday, the Yankees are 5-11 while being outscored 89-54 when they have a chance to sweep this year. They have a -33 run differential when they have a chance to sweep and a +50 run differential in all other games. Pretty annoying! The Yankees have to start closing out these sweeps to move up the standings. They went 3-1 against the Mariners and lost ground in the Wild Card race. Some thoughts on the last few days.

Rizzo to the COVID-19 list

Over the weekend Anthony Rizzo became the latest Yankee to test positive for COVID. Rizzo is not vaccinated -- “(I am) taking some more time to see the data,” he said in June -- so he has to quarantine at least 10 days. Also, Rizzo is a cancer survivor and thus at risk of experiencing a more severe illness, so for his sake I hope his symptoms aren’t too bad.

“We gotta roll. Of course concerned, but we’ll continue to do the best we can with it and try to navigate it and deal with it,” Aaron Boone told Greg Joyce. “... He’s obviously been terrific for us in every way. (He’s) obviously a little bummed out, but hopefully a chance to get rested up and well and be back hopefully sooner rather than later and back to impacting us.”

While I generally have no sympathy for those who choose not to get vaccinated, Rizzo had Hodgkin lymphoma in 2008 and underwent chemotherapy, and from what I understand there are slightly different vaccine guidelines for people in remission from blood cancer. “Taking some more time to see the data,” isn’t complete nonsense from someone in Rizzo’s position.

Anyway, it’s a good thing the Yankees kept Luke Voit, eh? These things always sort themselves out. I’m sure the Yankees would have liked Voit to get more than three minor league rehab games, but Rizzo’s absence forced their hand. The lineup is more imbalanced with another high-strikeout righty now, and the defense is worse too. So it goes.

Rizzo is the 12th Yankee to go on the COVID list this year (and fourth in the last 10 days) and there’s a chance more positive tests will continue to trickle in, because that’s just the way the virus works. Hopefully Rizzo gets healthy quickly, hopefully Voit hits, and hopefully no one else gets sick. I am exhausted. So ready for all of this to be over.

“I think in a lot of cases, we already are being more careful,” Boone told Joyce when asked about the Yankees possibly tightening up their protocols. “But yeah, those’ll be conversations that we have to make sure we’re not doing anything that’s too outgoing. Without being restrictive, making sure that we’re taking care of ourselves.”

The new-look lineup

The season-long offensive malaise continues (the Yankees scored eight runs last night thanks to the extra innings rule and also grounders hitting second base and the shortstop in the jaw) and the Yankees have a lot of players on the injured list, so last night Boone sent out this new-look lineup in the series opener against the Royals:

1. CF Brett Gardner
2. DH Giancarlo Stanton
3. RF Aaron Judge
4. LF Joey Gallo
5. 2B DJ LeMahieu
6. 1B Luke Voit
7. SS Andrew Velazquez
8. 3B Tyler Wade
9. C Kyle Higashioka

LeMahieu went into last night’s game hitting .250/.307/.325 (77 wRC+) since the All-Star break and that just won’t play in the leadoff spot. He hasn’t homered in 34 games now and he seems to have lost the ability to drive the baseball. Dropping him in the lineup is a-okay with me, at least at full health. When Gardner is the leadoff alternative though? Yeesh.

Anyway, Boone said he dropped LeMahieu to spread out the lefty hitters. Whether Boone realizes it or not, dropping LeMahieu into the middle of the lineup is smart because it splits up all those high strikeout hitters while Rizzo and Torres, two of the team’s best contact guys, are on the shelf. Here is yesterday’s lineup by season strikeout rate:

1. 22.8%
2. 27.6%
3. 25.9%
4. 33.0%
5. 15.0%
6. 29.8%
7. 27.4% in Triple-A
8. 23.1%
9. 26.1%

Replace Velasquez with Rougned Odor and that 27.4% in Triple-A becomes 24.7% in the big leagues, which is a significant improvement. It’s one man in a nine-man lineup though. Bat LeMahieu leadoff and Odor sixth, and Gardner seventh or lower, and you’re looking at a combined 28.3% strikeout rate in the 2-6 spots. That’s just too much.

Even with LeMahieu swinging a low-impact bat this year, you can’t put that many high strikeout hitters in a row, especially when all but one of them is a righty. That’s a big ol’ lane for the opposing manager to go to his ace righty reliever. LeMahieu gives you the best chance to avoid seeing a rally die without a ball being put in play*.

* LeMahieu came up with runners on the corners and one out in the seventh inning last night and hit a weak tapper back to the mound. Judge was maybe safe on the play at the plate (I didn’t see evidence he was clearly safe) and he would’ve been safe had he slid around the tag rather than directly into it. Anyway, in that spot, you need contact and LeMahieu is far and away the best bet to get you contact when the heavy hitters build a rally.

With contact, quality matters. It’s not only about quantity. I feel like the Yankees have swung the pendulum too far in one direction though. They’re loaded with exit velocity monsters, but they also have a lot of high strikeout guys, and they doubled down on that with Gallo. LeMahieu in the middle of the lineup at least changes the look a bit. Sometimes you just need someone to put the ball in play in the middle of a rally and he can do it. I like him in the middle of the order given the available personnel right now.

The bullpen game

With Gerrit Cole and Jordan Montgomery on the COVID list, and Domingo German nursing an achy shoulder (and Deivi Garcia unusable), the Yankees were forced to go with a bullpen game Friday. Every bullpen game has disaster potential -- use that many guys and chances are one of them just won’t have it that day -- but the bullpen turned in a masterpiece:

Two runs (one unearned because of the extra innings rule) across 11 innings. The “starter” just missed three weeks with COVID, three of those guys were not on the roster two weeks ago, and the winning pitcher has ridden the shuttle all year (it was Albert Abreu’s first MLB win). It took a village Friday night and those dudes delivered.

“They answered the call,” Boone told Bill Ladson. “A lot of them (were) in different situations, coming in at different times in the game. Everyone did their job and stepped up and executed. The Mariners are a good lineup that can hurt you in a lot of ways. (The bullpen) was able to navigate it to keep them at one run through nine innings.”

Credit where it’s due: Boone managed the game very well. That hasn’t always been the case this year (and the last three years). I thought Boone found the proper “lane” for each reliever in the first 6+ innings, until he could give the ball to his usual high leverage guys. Shoutout to Kyle Higashioka too. Catching nine different pitchers couldn’t have been easy.

“He’s a big story in this,” Boone told Joyce about Higashioka. “To be able to be ready with the game plan and execute it, his receiving was tremendous. He always is, but it was especially noticeable tonight.”

The Yankees did not use a bulk reliever -- I reckon Brody Koerner would’ve been asked to chew up a few innings had the game gotten out of hand (good or bad) -- and the short outings served two purposes. One, no Mariners hitter saw the same pitcher twice. Every at-bat was a new look and the Rays have shown us how effective that can be the last few years.

And two, the short outings meant several relievers were available again Saturday. Zack Britton and Chad Green weren’t because they pitched Thursday as well, but Jonathan Loaisiga was available to close Saturday, and other guys (Clay Holmes, Lucas Luetge, Joely Rodriguez, etc.) were all available as well. No one maxed out Friday and it helped the Yankees win Saturday.

Friday was the first time ever the Yankees used nine pitchers in a game outside the September roster expansion period, and also the first time in franchise history in which no pitcher threw at least two full innings in a game. Also, they’re the first team in baseball history to win an extra innings game without at least one pitcher throwing two full innings. It was a weird one.

It worked well Friday and the Yankees will do it again tomorrow, but I don’t want bullpen games to become a regular thing. They’re taxing and Friday was basically the best possible outcome. I don’t think you can expect similar results again and again. The Yankees need their horses back and they’ll get them back soon. For now, the bullpen game worked great Friday, and they’ll do it again tomorrow out of necessity. I hope they remain an emergency option only otherwise.

Gil and Ridings

The COVID absences have come with silver linings: Luis Gil and Stephen Ridings. Gil was very good again Sunday, striking out eight in five shutout innings against the Mariners. He had to work a little harder in that game than he did in his MLB debut last week, but the fastball and slider looked great, and the changeup was promising. Only two walks too.

“Today, he wasn’t as sharp as he was his first time out,” Boone told Ladson. “His first time out, when he went six, he had great command. Today, he was a little more scattered, but he made a lot of important pitches. That was encouraging to see. When he wasn’t at his most dominant, you still see the swing and miss that he has. The stuff is still there. He made pitches when he had to.”

Ridings, aka Ginger Dellin, struck out three in a scoreless seventh inning in a scoreless game Sunday. It was his third MLB appearance and he’s already working his way into the Circle of Trust™*, and why not? He’s nasty. Imagine if Ridings came up with the Rays? There’d be a “The Best Reliever You Never Heard Of” article with 17 GIFs on FanGraphs.

* Ridings has never pitched on back-to-back days in his pro career. I assume that, plus the weirdness of the extra innings rule, are why he didn’t pitch last night (and didn’t warm up until all the veteran guys had gotten into the game). Ridings has been great, but I don’t think it’s unreasonable to stick with the veterans in the late innings of a close game two weeks into the kid’s MLB career.

“What kind of substitute teacher throws 100?” Higashioka jokingly told Joyce about Ridings over the weekend.

(Mystery solved: Ridings worked as a substitute chemistry teacher in Florida over the winter and worked out at Eric Cressey’s facility, and apparently Cressey recommended him to the Yankees. That’s how they found Ridings and signed him.)

Gil was sent back to Triple-A after Sunday’s start but that’s just a roster manipulation thing. He was up as a COVID replacement (for Rizzo, so I guess good timing) and the 10-day rule doesn’t apply to COVID replacements. Gil will be called back up to make his next start in five days. The Yankees bought an extra roster spot for a few days.

With Gil, I could understand sending him to Triple-A once Cole and Montgomery return. He’s only 23 and a little rough around the edges. There’s development that still needs to take place there. Ridings? He turns 26 next week and he’s a short reliever. There’s no reason to make a guy like that waste bullets in the minors, so keep him up in the bullpen.

Roster status will work against Ridings, however. He’s a COVID replacement and thus can be removed from the 40-man roster without going through waivers. The Yankees will need those 40-man spots soon, and why lose someone when you can stash Ridings in Triple-A and keep everyone? Sending him down is the easy move even though I think he should stay.

With Aroldis Chapman now on the injured list (more on that in a bit), this should be the bullpen for the time being:

• High leverage: LHP Zack Britton, RHP Chad Green, RHP Jonathan Loaisiga
• Middle: RHP Clay Holmes, LHP Lucas Luetge, LHP Wandy Peralta, LHP Joely Rodriguez, RHP Stephen Ridings
• Up and down: RHP Albert Abreu, RHP Brooks Kriske, RHP Nick Nelson (and I guess RHP Brody Koerner)

What happens when Chapman and the COVID guys return? Figure it out when the time comes. Chances are someone will get hurt between now and then and solve the problem (“problem”) for the Yankees. If not, then Ridings will go back to Triple-A, and rejoin the 40-man roster in the offseason. For now, he (and Gil) have been very impressive. Much-needed shots in the arm.

The two sides of Heaney

Andrew Heaney’s first two starts as a Yankee have not been good. Eight runs (including five homers!) in 10 innings against two below-average offenses (Orioles and Mariners). He’s the lefty version of the Yankees version of Sonny Gray, meaning not very good and also difficult to watch because he nibbles so much. Some numbers:

• Pitches per plate appearance: 4.24 (most in MLB)
• Three-ball count rate: 22.7% of plate appearances (7th highest in MLB)
• Zone rate: 48.9% (12th lowest in MLB)

Heaney’s 40-pitch second inning Saturday was the longest inning by a single Yankees pitcher this season. He allowed four runs in the first two innings and allowed six of the first 10 batters he faced to reach base. Then Heaney settled down and retired 13 of the final 15 batters he faced, including six via strikeout. He was very, very bad, then very, very good.

“Obviously, after the first two innings, I probably put a scare into everybody, probably into Boone,” Heaney told Joyce after the game. “Everybody in the bullpen probably scrambling a little bit, trying to figure out how to get through this game. The first two innings were terrible. I don’t want that to be any indication of what I can do here.”

Heaney threw 59 pitches in the first two innings and only 50 pitches in his final four innings. His location improved -- Heaney was more aggressive in general, and I’m sure there’s a confidence component to that -- specifically with his breaking ball. He hung a few early and got hurt. After the second though, Heaney was able to back foot it to righties consistently (full-size image):

Maybe something clicked those last four innings and Heaney will be effective moving forward? That would be ideal. We’ve also seen enough Heaney types (talented, enigmatic, not as good as he should be, etc.) come through to know better than to get excited about four innings. It’s not often these guys get “fixed.” They just have periods of competence.

The Yankees have an entire rotation on the injured list, so even if they wanted to take Heaney out of the rotation, they couldn't. He’ll start every fifth day until better options come along (and maybe even after that too). It would be swell if something truly did click in those last four innings Saturday and Heaney is effective the rest of the season. Given the track record, I’m not expecting it.

Severino’s rehab start

Luis Severino is closer to rejoining the Yankees than he has been at any point since having Tommy John surgery last March. Severino retired all 12 batters he faced in his latest rehab start Sunday (his second rehab start since the groin injury), and he threw 36 of 48 pitches for strikes (75%). Here's video of Severino's five strikeouts.

“It was a big improvement from the last start,” Double-A Somerset manager Julio Mosquera told Randy Miller. “He was finding the rhythm and his pitches were a little bit sharper. It was impressive to see him out competing. He set the tone and our boys really enjoyed watching him go about his business the way he attacked hitters and mixed his pitches.”

Severino contributed to a combined no-hitter, I should note. Righties Shawn Semple (five strikeouts in four innings) and Ron Marinaccio (one strikeout in one inning) threw the final five innings. They lost the perfect game on a one-out walk in the ninth. Alas. It is the first no-hitter in Somerset Patriots history, including their time as an independent team (1998-20).

Severino was reportedly 92-96 mph with his fastball, which is below his usual velocity but about where you’d expect him to be post-Tommy John surgery. Throwing so many strikes is more exciting than the velocity is worrisome. Control is usually the last thing to return following elbow reconstruction yet Severino was able to pound the zone.

“(I) saw a guy who was completely locked in. A guy who is not far away from being ready to pitch in Yankee Stadium,” Somerset pitching coach Daniel Moskos told Miller. “You saw that confidence that he has and the stuff was just electric. He was throwing the ball exactly where he needed to and where he wanted to and showed us why he’s the special talent that he is.”

Last week Boone said Severino will make two more rehab starts, then the Yankees will see where he’s at and determine the next step. One of the two rehab starts is in the books, and I imagine Severino will move up to Triple-A Scranton for his next rehab start to face better competition (Scranton and Somerset are both home this week, so travel is a non-issue).

“Get him built up more and then we’ll probably have a decision in front of us, whether he takes another (rehab start) or at that point is with us. He’s certainly getting close,” Boone told Dan Martin yesterday.

After throwing 48 pitches Sunday, I would expect Severino to throw 60 pitches or so in his next rehab start, then roughly 75 pitches the start after that. Unless he completely unravels in his next rehab start, it’ll be time to get Severino to the big leagues, I think. There is only so much season left and he seems healthy. An updated potential schedule:

• Saturday, Aug. 14th: Triple-A Scranton vs. Lehigh Valley (60 pitches?)
• Friday, Aug. 20th: Yankees vs. Twins (75 pitches?)
• Thursday, Aug. 26th: Yankees at Athletics (90 pitches?)

That gives Severino an extra day of rest between each start. Aug. 20th would be a nice Yankee Stadium welcome home game for Severino, and also a soft landing spot against a bad Twins team in his first game back. Also, the Yankees have an off-day on Wednesday, Aug. 25th, so the extra day of rest is built into the schedule. No jumping through hoops required.

It’s been a (very) long road and we can see the light at the end of the tunnel. I don’t know what to expect from Severino when he returns only because I don’t know what to expect from any pitcher so soon after Tommy John surgery, but gosh, it’s real easy to dream on him coming back and making a difference. Severino riding in on his horse to push the Yankees over the top and into the postseason would be rad as hell.

3. Chapman to the injured list. As part of the weekend injury bug, Aroldis Chapman landed on the 10-day injured list with elbow inflammation. An MRI revealed no structural damage and the Yankees, a team that perpetually downplays injuries, say Chapman could return as soon as his 10 days are up.

“It’s going to be a few days of no throwing. He should be able to ramp up from there,” Aaron Boone told Bill Ladson over the weekend. “I’m hopeful that on that 10th day, he is activated. It's just a little bit of inflammation.”

Chapman had been trending in the right direction the last few times out but he definitely wasn’t all the way back to where he was earlier this year. His last outing before going on the injured list was a grind. One hit, one walk, five three-ball counts to six batters, more balls (16) than strikes (14). A better lineup might’ve put a crooked number on the board.

The thing is, Chapman occasionally has outings like that even when he’s at the top of his game, so it was impossible to tell his elbow was bothering him. Chapman has never had any elbow problems in his career. He’s had a few minor shoulder issues over the years, but this is the first time his elbow is barking. That’s not good. Fingers crossed that it truly is minor.

In the meantime the Yankees will use Zack Britton as their closer because that’s what they do whenever Chapman is unavailable. Plus Boone gave it away when he used Lucas Luetge over Britton against the top of the lineup in the eighth inning of a scoreless game Sunday (that situation is begging for your best available reliever), and then when Britton came in for the save last night.

“It depends on any given night. They are all guys I feel (can close),” Boone told Ladson over the weekend when asked about Britton, Chad Green, and Jonathan Loaisiga potentially closing games during Chapman’s absence. “(Albert) Abreu closed it out last night. All hands on deck.”

Britton is kinda sorta rounding into form. He did blow the save last night, though he seems to be moving in the right direction. Britton was essentially going through Spring Training when he first came back (the second time) and is starting to get his legs under him. A walk, a steal, and a ground ball single to blow a save doesn’t worry me as much as getting hit around or completely losing the zone.

The Yankees play nothing but close games and they lean on their bullpen a ton, so losing Chapman, even when he was less than at his very best, is a blow. It’s one fewer high leverage option and it’ll push someone somewhere along the line into important situations they otherwise wouldn’t see, like Luetge in the eighth inning Sunday.

Not much more you can do other than hope it truly is a minor injury and Chapman won’t miss much time. Chapman is the better player, but in a weird way, I think the Yankees will miss him less than they miss Gleyber Torres because they have better replacement options*, and because the offense has underperformed all season as it is.

* Yes, I know that sounds ridiculous after the Yankees became the first team in baseball history to blow a lead in the seventh, eighth, ninth, and tenth innings last night. That’s an outlier game though. By and large, I’m confident in the bullpen. At least more confident than I am in the offense.

4. 2021 draft signing recap. The draft signing deadline flew under the radar because it was two days after the trade deadline, and I want to put a bow on the draft season. Here are all the Yankees’ picks, here’s my draft recap, and here’s the final bonus pool tally:

The Yankees also signed their 12th (Dartmouth C Ben Rice), 15th (VCU RHP Danny Watson), 16th (Florida JuCo RHP Cole Ayers), 17th (Indiana OF Grant Richardson), and 18th (Penn State RHP Bailey Dees) round selections. Those guys all received $125,000 or less, which is slot value for picks after the 10th round and has no impact on the bonus pool.

The two players the Yankees did not sign: Vanderbilt C Dominic Keegan (19th) and New Jersey HS RHP Sean Hard (20th). Keegan announced he was going to school on draft day. I thought the Yankees would be able to sign Hard once I saw they had about $126,000 remaining under the 5% overage. Add in the $125,000 slot and that’s roughly $250,000 they could offer.

None of this happens by accident, and once all the signings rolled it and we saw the Yankees had about $250,000 to spend and only Hard to sign, I assumed it was because he indicated he would sign for that number. I guess not. Hard made the announcement himself on Twitter that he would not sign and instead follow through on his commitment to Boston College. Bummer.

In the end, the Yankees exceeded their bonus pool by $221,100 this year, but they still fell a little more than $126,000 short of the 5% overage. This is the furthest short of the 5% overage they have ever fallen in the bonus pool era (2012 to present). Once Hard declined to sign, there was nowhere to spend that leftover $126,000 or so. Everyone else (except Keegan) had signed already.

Now that that’s in the books, I wanted to look at the draft class in a different way. Teams sign players to above and below-slot bonuses for different reasons. Rather than focus on the slot where the player was selected, let’s look at the slot the player was paid. Here are the numbers:

Is it clear what I did there? Sweeney was the No. 20 pick but the Yankees paid him a bonus that was slotted for No. 22. Selvidge was the No. 92 pick yet he received a bonus equivalent to slot for the No. 49 pick. So on and so forth.

All told, the Yankees paid out eight underslot bonuses and only five overslot bonuses, though scale matters. Four underslot bonuses were small (difference of no more than nine picks) and the average overslot bonus was an 85-pick increase. Ignore Messinger and Hermann and it’s still a 41-pick increase. That’s more than a full round gained with three overslot bonuses.

The Yankees held two of the top 64 picks but gave out three top 64 bonuses. Bonus is a decent proxy for talent, so we can argue the Yankees turned those underslot bonuses in the late rounds (picks with very low expected value) into an additional top 64 talent. The Yankees “moved back” slightly with Sweeney and Beck, then “moved up” big with Selvidge (and Fitts).

I’m not really sure where I’m going with this, but I was curious to see the slot equivalents of the bonuses the Yankees handed out, and I figured I’d present it here. Turning below slot bonuses in the late rounds, those picks you’re not expecting much from to start with, into another top talent up high is smart business. Teams have been doing it for years.

5. Remembering a random Yankee: Dustin Moseley. By request, this week’s random Yankee is a pitcher who had a signature postseason moment in pinstripes. Here’s the random Yankee archive. You can find links back to everyone we've covered there.

Born and raised in Arkansas, the Reds drafted Moseley out of high school with the No. 34 pick in the 2000 draft. He was a good but not great prospect coming up through the minors, and with Cincinnati looking to add a veteran starter during the 2004-05 offseason, they sent Moseley to the Angels for righty Ramon Ortiz at the Winter Meetings.

"We have been pursuing Mr. Ortiz for months," Reds then-GM Dan O'Brien told the Associated Press after the trade. “We sensed he might be available at some point. His success has been as a starting pitcher, accumulating 200 innings and putting up double-digit wins for a successive number of years.”

Moseley was a week away from his 23rd birthday at the time of the trade and he pitched to a 3.86 ERA in 119 innings split between Double-A and Triple-A in 2004. Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked him the No. 15 prospect in Anaheim’s system after the trade, and their scouting report said his “pitching savvy has allowed him to rise quickly through the minors.”

The 2005 (5.03 ERA) and 2006 (4.69 ERA) seasons didn’t go well in Triple-A, though Moseley was still called up to make his MLB debut in July 2006 because the Angels were dealing with injuries. He allowed four runs in five innings in a spot start against Cleveland on July 17th, and finished the year with 11 runs allowed in 11 big league innings.

Moseley spent 2007-09 as an up-and-down swingman with the Angels, throwing 157 innings with a 5.16 ERA in 21 starts and 40 relief appearances. He needed surgery to treat an elbow nerve issue after 2007, and he had season-ending hip surgery in April 2009. The Angels non-tendered Moseley after 2009 and the Yankees signed him to a minor league deal in Feb. 2010.

Because he was coming off hip surgery, Moseley was never really a serious Opening Day roster candidate (he threw only 6.1 innings in Spring Training), and he started 2010 in Triple-A. In 12 starts with Scranton, Moseley pitched to a 4.21 ERA with a stellar 63.1% ground ball rate in 72.2 innings. He wasn’t dominant, but he was solid, and a nice depth piece.

Moseley, then 28, triggered an opt-out in his contract on July 1st, giving the Yankees 48 hours to either add him to the MLB roster, or release him. They opted to call him up (the not yet established Boone Logan was sent down) and keep him around as a long reliever. Phil Hughes was going to have an innings limit that year, and Javy Vazquez was just bad. The Yankees needed the depth.

“I knew he had Major League opportunities waiting,” Brian Cashman told Conor Orr after Moseley was added to the roster. “We’ll continue to evaluate everybody here and we’ve got guys coming back from the DL -- (Al) Aceves at some point and Sergio Mitre -- and we’ll keep evaluating everybody against each other and hopefully if everyone can stay we’ll pick the right ones to keep as we move forward.”

Moseley made his Yankees debut one day later with two mop up innings in a blowout win over the Blue Jays. He made four relief appearances in July, the third of which was very bad (four runs in three innings against the Rays) and the fourth of which was very good (4.2 scoreless innings against the Royals). On July 29th, Moseley replaced the struggling Mitre in the rotation.

“It’s been a long road these last couple years,” Moseley told Ben Shpigel after holding Cleveland to one run in six innings in his first start as a Yankee. “To go out there and keep the team in the game and eventually get a win worked out real good.”

Moseley remained in the rotation in August and wasn’t good (5.67 ERA in six starts), though he did have a “signature moment” start. On Aug. 8th, Moseley held the Red Sox to two runs in 6.1 innings in a blowout win on Sunday Night Baseball (video). He struck out five and got another 13 outs on the ground. The sinker was working that night.

“You can’t dream anything better,” Moseley told Thomas Kaplan after the game. “I got a lot of people back home in Arkansas watching the ballgame, and they don’t get to see a lot of games. Knowing it was going to be on ESPN, I think my wife sent a mass text to everybody that we knew.”

Moseley made two starts (including Game 162 after the Yankees clinched everything) and three relief appearances in September, and finished the season with a 4.96 ERA (87 ERA+) in 65.1 innings spread across nine starts and seven relief appearances. He walked (9.7%) nearly as many hitters as he struck out (11.9%), though the 49.1% ground ball rate was solid.

The Yankees carried Moseley on their postseason roster in 2010 and he only pitched once that October, and it was a memorable performance. He entered Game 1 of the ALCS with the Yankees down 5-0 to the Rangers in the sixth, then struck out four in two scoreless innings. The offense rallied to take the lead in the eighth and Moseley picked up the win. Here’s video of Moseley’s outing and here’s video of the rally.

"It's a cool little present for her," Moseley told Anthony McCarron following the win, which came on his wife’s birthday.

Alas, the Yankees went on to lose the ALCS, and the great Game 1 performance wasn’t enough to save Moseley’s roster spot. The Yankees non-tendered him after the season rather than give him a raise through arbitration. I remember two things about Moseley’s stint in pinstripes. The first is ALCS Game 1. The second is this Associated Press photo:

A great, very dramatic photo for … Dustin Moseley? The photo is from Moseley’s start against the Tigers on Aug. 18th (four runs in five innings). Not sure why that photo stuck with me, but it did. I remember that and I remember the ALCS Game 1 performance.

After being non-tendered by the Yankees, Moseley hooked on with the Padres and signed a one-year deal worth $900,000. He pitched well in San Diego in 2011 (3.30 ERA in 120 innings) and I distinctly remember “the stupid Yankees should’ve kept Moseley!” cries while the Yankees trotted A.J. Burnett, Bartolo Colon, and Freddy Garcia out there.

Moseley’s 2011 season (and effectively his career) came to an end in July, when he dislocated his left shoulder taking a swing. He had surgery a few weeks later, and in April 2012, Moseley suffered extensive damage to his right shoulder in his first start of the year. He had surgery and attempted a comeback with the Marlins in 2014 (33 minor league innings) and that was it. Moseley was done at age 32.

6. Rapid fire thoughts. Got a few post-trade deadline nuggets. First, Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d) says the Yankees originally planned to trade for Trevor Story, and move Gleyber Torres to second base and DJ LeMahieu to first. They couldn’t find common ground with the Rockies, and only then did they shift gears to Anthony Rizzo. Down year aside, Story’s really good, but Rizzo better fits what the Yankees needed at the deadline, namely a lefty bat who doesn’t strike out a ton. He’s a defensive upgrade too. Second, Jeff Passan says outfielder Kevin Alcantara was the key to the Rizzo deal for the Cubs. He’s the guy they wanted. Similar to the Yu Darvish trade, Chicago wanted a high-upside teenager in rookie ball. A player with star tools who has not yet broken out. Alcantara has a chance to be really good, but he’s also years away from the big leagues, so he’s an easy guy to give up when you’re trying to win in the short-term. And third, Andy Martino says the Yankees “nearly had three separate deals” in place involving Luke Voit, and at one point it appeared he was heading elsewhere before the other team backed out of the trade. Usually a team is just trying to cover its butt with these “we almost made this trade” stories, though that doesn’t really apply here. Voit may be an imperfect fit for the roster when Rizzo is healthy, but the Yankees shouldn’t have traded him just to trade him. If they could get something good back, sure. Otherwise keep him, because Rizzo (or someone else) might get hurt, and you’ll be happy to have the extra bat … And finally, Japan defeated USA to win the Olympic gold medal in baseball over the weekend (Masahiro Tanaka is very proud). They used the Japanese sticky ball during the tournament and Team USA’s players loved ‘em, apparently. “They need this ball over in America. It is amazing. It’s perfect. It is -- I can’t say this enough -- the best baseball I’ve ever touched,” Joe Ryan, who went from the Rays to the Twins in the Nelson Cruz trade, told Jorge Castillo and Dylan Hernandez. Veteran Scott Kazmir also vouched for it, and hitters like the sticky ball too, because they’re whiter than the MLB baseball and easier to see. Seems like a win-win. Using the sticky ball here would be ideal, though apparently there’s a processing issue. The sticky ball is made with cowhide prepared in Japanese tanneries, and differences in the water mean the same process results in a slightly different baseball in different places. The balls produced with the same method in China and Taiwan come out differently, for example. My amateur opinion: it’s 2021. Figure it out. Using a sticky ball and banning all foreign substances is the easiest and most straightforward solution to MLB’s foreign substance problem.

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