July 9th, 2021: Urshela, German, Bullpen, King, Minors, Mailbag

Tonight the Yankees begin what could be a season-defining stretch. Three games in Houston, four games against the Red Sox, two games against the Phillies, four games in Boston, then three games in Tampa. That’s 14 games against the best the American League has to offer (plus two against the Phillies). We should know, with a great deal of certainty, whether the Yankees have a real chance to contend this year after those 14 games (the last of which is the day before the trade deadline, conveniently enough). The Yankees are on pace to go 83-79 with 76 games remaining. To today’s thoughts.

1. Weekly observations. The Yankees went to Seattle and said “we may suck this season, but dammit we’re not going to finish behind the Mariners!” They beat up on lefty starters in the first two games, then got shut down by a series of hard-throwing righties in the third game. The season in a nutshell. The Yankees are 3-8 and have been outscored 59-38 when going for a sweep this year. Some thoughts on the last few days.

Gio’s strikeouts

Here’s a weird one: Gio Urshela has a higher strikeout rate (25.6%) than Aaron Judge (25.2%) this season. Part of that is Judge being more aggressive early in the count and improving his contact rate, but mostly it’s Urshela swinging and missing more often. He went from 10.7% swings and misses from 2019-20 to 12.6% in 2021. A graph:

Urshela has 77 strikeouts in 301 plate appearances this year. He struck out 87 times in 476 plate appearances in 2019. Here are the largest strikeout rate increases from last season (min. 150 plate appearances in 2020 and 2021):

1. Kyle Seager, Mariners: +13.1%
2. Brandon Belt, Giants: +12.2%
3. Gio Urshela, Yankees: +11.2%
4. Jackie Bradley Jr., Brewers: +8.6%
5. Anthony Santander, Orioles: +8.5%

Gio hasn’t been bad this year. He hasn’t been great (.269/.309/.441 and 105 wRC+) but he hasn’t been bad. I wish he were doing what he did the last two years (.310/.358/.523 and 132 wRC+), though this year’s performance is not what is holding the Yankees back. Urshela would be better with the rocket ball, I imagine.

The righty heavy lineup worked well the last few years because the Yankees had variety within all those righties. Judge, Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton, and Luke Voit are the big power hitters with swing and miss tendencies. Urshela, DJ LeMahieu, and Gleyber Torres provided balance as high contact guys who spray the ball all around. Not ideal, but it worked.

Now Urshela has joined the ranks of the high strikeout guys, LeMahieu is having a down year (though he’s been much better of late), and Gleyber’s slugging percentage is a few days away from starting with a 2 (currently .303). The Yankees have climbed to 21st in runs per game (4.16), which is better than it was a few weeks ago, but still disappointing.

Urshela isn’t chasing out of the zone more often and he’s not being pitched all that differently. He’s just missing with more swings. Anecdotally, there are times Gio seems to sell out for power (perhaps because the deadened ball isn’t carrying like it did the last few years?) and getting long with his swing, like this (video link):

Not quite middle-middle, but 90 mph and hittable, and Urshela swung through it like it was 98 mph. Even stumbled over a bit too. We saw Gio take a lot of funky swings the last two years, usually on pitches down that he golfed into the outfield for base hits. Lately though, the swings have been coming up empty more often than they once did, and the strikeouts are piling up.

Of all the potential things that could go wrong with the offense, I didn’t have “Urshela will have a higher strikeout rate than Judge” on my list coming into the season. As a late bloomer with a short track record, a strikeout rate spike like this can’t be dismissed as randomness, though I’m not worried yet. It’s not like Gio’s been bad. Hopefully he gets the strikeouts under control soon and gets back to being the high contact guy who gives the lineup a different look.

German’s spot

I wonder if, in a weird way, the emergency root canal and three-run home run kept Domingo German on the active roster. Not that German was in danger of being released or anything, but I could’ve seen a scenario in which he started Wednesday as scheduled, then was sent to the taxi squad in favor of an extra bullpen arm the next few days. Like this:

• Wednesday: German starts
• Thursday: German sent down, extra reliever called up
• Thursday to Sunday: Nine-man bullpen
• Monday to Wednesday: All-Star break
• Thursday to Saturday: Still a nine-man bullpen
• Sunday: German returns after 10-day rule to make his start

(The Yankees could even push German’s return back to Saturday, July 24th, the first time they need a fifth starter after the All-Star break. He could make a Triple-A start in the interim to stay sharp, and the Yankees would have an extra roster spot to play with.)

Use the All-Star break to buy an extra reliever for six games without German missing a start, basically. I’m not sure who that extra reliever could’ve been because Albert Abreu and Brooks Kriske are still subject to the 10-day rule, but that’s small beans. The Yankees could’ve made a roster move to get an extra arm.

But, because German had the root canal and couldn’t make a normal start Wednesday, and because he gave up the three-run homer and forced Aaron Boone to go to his high-leverage relievers in the late innings (rather than finish the game himself and run up his pitch count), German threw only three innings and 47 pitches. He’ll be available to pitch again as soon as tomorrow, and he’ll definitely be available Sunday.

Had German made a normal 100-ish pitch start, he would’ve been out of action the rest of the weekend, so optioning him down for an extra reliever would’ve made sense. Instead, German is essentially the extra reliever himself. Good timing on a root canal and homer, I guess. Domingo has allowed 21 runs in his last 18.1 innings. He needs to get it together.

State of the bullpen

The bullpen is not in great shape at the moment, eh? Darren O’Day went back on the injured list with what Boone called a “significant” hamstring strain earlier this week, Zack Britton is still out with his hamstring injury, and Mike King went down with a finger injury yesterday (he jammed it in the weight room and fortunately there’s no fracture). Aroldis Chapman and Justin Wilson remain unusable in high-leverage situations as well.

These are Boone’s current bullpen options:

• Trusted implicitly: Chad Green and Jonathan Loaisiga
• The second tier: Lucas Luetge and I guess Luis Cessa?
• Currently broken: Aroldis Chapman and Justin Wilson
• Wandy Peralta: Wandy Peralta
• Emergency guy: Nick Nelson
• Basically a starter: Nestor Cortes

Not great! Green and Loaisiga are monsters and more than capable of handling high-leverage situations while Chapman (and Wilson) sorts himself out and Britton (and O’Day) is on the mend. Hopefully Britton returns soon (he faced hitters yesterday) and can lighten the load on those two. Green and Loaisiga have gone above and beyond this year.

Thanks largely to Chapman’s recent meltdowns, the bullpen owns a -1.14 win probability added since June 1st. Only the very bad Diamondbacks (-3.65), Phillies (-2.51), Rangers (-1.68), and Royals (-1.44) have had worse bullpens during that time. The bullpen has been a strength of this team for so long. It’s not quite in crisis mode right now, but it’s closer than I’d like.

The All-Star break is three days away, so once the Yankees get through the weekend, they’ll be able to regroup and reset. Getting through the weekend in Houston won’t be easy -- the Astros are hitting .272/.347/.442 (121 wRC+) as a team this year -- but that’s baseball. Even the best bullpens hit a rough patch. The Yankees are kinda in one right now.

King gets an opener, kinda

In a roundabout way, King was paired as an opener last weekend. Jordan Montgomery started Saturday’s game, then gave way to Luetge and Wilson. King took over in the sixth inning and struck out nine in four scoreless innings. Some overly simplistic 2021 numbers:

• King in the first inning: 15.00 ERA (10.50 FIP) with .555 wOBA allowed in 6 IP
• King in all other innings: 2.13 ERA (3.22 FIP) with .274 wOBA allowed in 42.1 IP

Hmmm. HMMM. Those first inning numbers could’ve been a lot worse too had the Yankees not turned a triple play behind King in Buffalo, but I guess that’s what teammates are for. Point is, get King away from the top of the lineup just one time, and it can make a huge difference in his overall performance (it would make a huge difference in everyone’s performance, really).

“I felt like I’m at my best when I’m super aggressive and almost angry,” King told Betelhem Ashame following Saturday’s outing. “(That situation) got me a little fired up, or at least got my adrenaline going. And then, also, I preferred being a starter, so when I do get sent back to the ‘pen, it kind of lit a little fire under me. I felt like I had a little more motivation to go out there and prove myself.”

The Yankees insist they’re trying to make a run to the postseason, and as long as they’re doing that, they owe it to themselves to put the team in the best position to win. Giving King an opener and letting him pitch angry as the bulk guy out of the bullpen is a step in that direction. I know he’s only made six true starts, but do we really need to see more of him in the first inning?

There is a time and a place to let a young pitcher take his lumps in the first inning and learn how to get outs against the top of the lineup. This is not that time. The Yankees have dug themselves a pretty big hole in the standings and need to do what they can to win every game. Should they fall out of it entirely, then they can let King go through those first inning growing pains.

A Cortes/King tandem starter arrangement intrigues me. Neither seems like a great bet to work as a full-fledged starter on his own, but pair them together, and you’re throwing two different styles (Nestor’s funky leftyness and King’s harder righty stuff) at opponents, and maybe they can get you through the lineup three times effectively. Would be cool.

Either way, Saturday’s dominant relief outing -- and he was truly dominant -- was just another reminder King is most effective when someone makes his life easier by going through the top of the lineup one time. With every game so important now, the Yankees should continue this. They can always reevaluate later in the season, but right now, King and an opener is the way to go.

“I still think it’s fluid and flexible with him moving forward depending on matchups and things like that, what our needs are during the week as far as from a bullpen standpoint,” Boone told Ashame about King’s role. “So it could still be starting at times. It could be coming in for length at times. It could even be an important inning that pops up that we need him. So I do feel like he’s capable of filling a lot of different roles for us.”

2. Minor league thoughts. Bad news: Triple-A Scranton lost a series earlier this week. It was their first series loss of the season. Bound to happen at some point. The affiliates are a combined 150-73 (.673), which is the best record among the 30 organizations by a wide margin. Here are a few quick prospect thoughts.

Dominguez update

Real quick Jasson Dominguez update. The 18-year-old wunderkind is 2-for-15 with six walks and six strikeouts in six games. He’s also been hit by a pitch, giving him a cool .133/.409/.133 batting line. Seems like everyone in the Florida Complex League except Ryder Green is hitting .100-something. Missing a year of development as a teenager can’t be easy.

Dominguez is headed to the Futures Game this weekend, then once he gets back next week, hopefully he’ll settle in and go on a nice run. He’s not striking out like crazy or anything, and I won’t sweat two weeks either way, good or bad. It won’t be long before we get the “Dominguez is overrated!” commentary though. That’s inevitable in the hot take era.

(This is not my cup of tea, but Dominguez is doing an Instagram takeover thing with MLB on Saturday, if you want to check that out.)

On Amburgey

Like so many Yankees minor leaguers this year, Trey Amburgey is having a monster season, hitting .317/.393/.583 (153 wRC+) with six homers in 32 Triple-A games. He’s currently riding a Scranton franchise record 40-game on-base streak, and (random Yankee) Erik Kratz has been talking him up on social media all season. He’s kinda obsessive about it.

Given Amburgey’s performance, and the fact the Yankees have gotten basically nothing from left and center field …

• Left fielders: .235/.302/.358 (83 wRC+)
• Center fielders: .178/.286/.310 (69 wRC+)

… the calls to call him up are growing louder. That’s the way it is when a guy puts up numbers in Triple-A. It happened with Chris Gittens earlier this year, Mike Ford before him, and countless others before them.

Hoy Jun Park has my attention because he’s a middle infielder with good defensive chops and a history of strong plate discipline who may or may not be unlocking power. I don’t feel the same way about Amburgey. He’s an organizational depth piece on the light side of the platoon at non-premium positions. I view him as an emergency MLB option and nothing more.

Let’s run through the facts. One, Amburgey is repeating Triple-A. He hit .274/.329/.494 (106 wRC+) with 22 homers in 510 plate appearances at the level in 2019. Repeat a level and your numbers should improve. Two, Amburgey was not at the alternate site last season, so he is essentially coming back from a year away. Credit to him for not missing a beat.

Three, they’re still using the 2020 rocket ball in Triple-A, which is inflating offense. That’s a really important piece of context for every player, hitter or pitcher. Four, injuries have thinned pitching staffs considerably, so much so that MLB clubs have already signed a record number of players out of independent leagues just to fill out rosters, according to J.J. Cooper (subs. req’d). The talent pool isn't great.

Five, Amburgey is a righty hitter and an extreme pull hitter. His 48.6% pull rate since 2018 is 28th highest among the 287 hitters with at least 750 plate appearances at Double-A and Triple-A. His career hit heat map:

A righty who pulls the ball a ton and doesn't have top of the line power is not a particularly good fit for Yankee Stadium, and he’s also on the soft side of the platoon. Amburgey being as productive as he’s been while being at the platoon disadvantage so often is a credit to him. For the Yankees though, Amburgey is exactly what they already have in their lineup many times over. That works against him.

And six, Amburgey isn’t a center fielder, or at least the Yankees don’t see him as a center fielder. He’s played the position sparingly throughout his career and not at all this season. Greg Allen, Socrates Brito, and Ryan LaMarre have gotten center field reps with the RailRiders, but not Amburgey. If he could play center, he would have done it over those guys.

Add it all up and you have a 26-year-old having a big year with the rocket ball against depleted pitching staffs while repeating Triple-A, and he’s doing it as a righty hitting corner fielder, which is pretty much the last thing the Yankees need. The Yankees need lefty hitters and they need someone who can play center. Tim Locastro is a righty, but he’s a legit center fielder and fills a need. Amburgey doesn’t.

Replacing Miguel Andujar with Amburgey has zero appeal to me. Andujar’s hit .279/.315/.443 (107 wRC+) since taking over as the left fielder last month, he’s younger than Amburgey (by six months), and we’ve seen him be a really productive big league hitter. Andujar wasn’t in Triple-A long earlier this year, but he put up Amburgey numbers during his time there. Just play him.

Amburgey has been passed over in multiple Rule 5 Drafts, including immediately after his strong 2019 season in Triple-A, and righty hitting corner outfielders are not difficult to find. There’s a guy like this in most organizations. Once in a while one of these players breaks through and is a late bloomer like Mark Canha or Mike Yastrzemski, but it’s rare. You can’t giving every single player a chance hoping to find that guy.

Roster fatigue is a real thing. We’re sick of seeing the same players and want the shiny new toy. I don’t see Amburgey as a fit though. If he were a lefty or could play center, sure, try him, but he doesn’t. Park intrigues me, but I see Amburgey as a Quad-A guy I won’t lose sleep over keeping in Triple-A. I think the Yankees have their best outfielders in MLB already.

Ridings moved to Triple-A

The Yankees signed 6-foot-8 righty Stephen Ridings as a minor league free agent over the winter. The Cubs drafted him in the eighth round in 2016 and he was pretty bad from 2017-19: 5.02 ERA (4.42 FIP) with 31.5% strikeouts and 12.8% walks in 113 innings at mostly rookie ball, but also some Low-A.

This year Ridings, 25, allowed two runs (one earned) in 19 innings with Double-A Somerset before being moved up to Triple-A Scranton earlier this week. He struck out 30 and walked two in those 19 innings. His Triple-A debut didn’t go well (two runs on three hits in one inning), but it was one appearance. The Double-A numbers are great.

Ridings is basically a fastball-only reliever and he sits 99-101 mph. Here’s some video. A few weeks ago Somerset pitching coach Daniel Moskos spoke to Mike Ashmore about Ridings (and other Patriots pitchers). Here’s what he said about the big righty:

“You saw him sitting 98-100, and yet guys are fouling balls off and fouling balls off and not blown away by them and eventually putting a ball in play and getting out, but it taking 10-11 pitches. You fast forward, and kudos to him, he’s worked really hard on implementing (a breaking ball) and at least making sure he’s working it in … You have to use something to slow them down so that you can speed them back up. That’s kind of the development for him in learning how to pitch. It’s not always hard, hard, hard. Every fastball that you throw speeds that batter up a little bit. He gets a little bit more on time and a little bit more on time. Eventually, he’s going to be on time, no matter how hard you’re throwing. That’s why you’re seeing fastball usage go down, it’s a straighter pitch and it stays on plane. If you ask any hitter, usually, what pitch they want to hit, their answer is going to be the fastball. If you can set that up and make it a better pitch just by mixing in a couple sliders here and there, it goes a long way for the effectiveness of that fastball.”

Throwing 100 mph no longer equals free passage to the big leagues. You can survive and even thrive as a fastball-only guy (Chad Green did it for several years), but it’s not easy, and the best way to have success with that 100 mph heater is to pair it with a respectable breaking ball. It doesn’t have to be a wipeout slider or anything. Just something hitters have to respect.

It’s sorta amazing how guys who throw 100 mph are basically a dime a dozen now. It wasn’t too long ago that they were rare and would always get a look in the big leagues. Ridings has been great this year, though triple digits will overwhelm most minor leaguers, and he’s going to need something else before becoming an MLB option for the Yankees. He’s worth keeping an eye on, though he’s probably not as good as the numbers suggest.

On Tampa’s offense

Not a whole lot to say here, I just want to note Low-A Tampa is hitting .278/.403/485 as a team this year. As a team! The Tarpons scored 21 runs in a seven-inning game yesterday and have scored 413  runs on the season. The next highest scoring team in the league has 332 runs, and the next best slugging percentage in the league is .385. Pretty crazy, huh?

Tampa has the oldest position player group in the league, so they have their thumb on the scale a bit, but geez. They’re the 1927 Yankees of Low-A ball. Austin Wells is hitting .278/.402/.494 (142 wRC+) and he’s been no better than their fifth best hitter. Some others:

• OF Pat DeMarco: .294/.411/.503 (149 wRC+)
• OF Elijah Dunham: .276/.441/.500 (160 wRC+)
• 2B Trevor Hauver: .303/.461/.503 (165 wRC+)
• SS Anthony Volpe: .312/.458/.629 (187 wRC+)

340 players have at least 200 plate appearances in the minors this year and Volpe is fourth in OBP, third in SLG, and first in wRC+ (by nine points!). After the Yankees drafted him, I had people telling me he was an Alex Bregman clone and that he would’ve been the No. 1 pick in 2022 had he gone to school and I didn’t buy it for a second, yet here we are. It's only been half a season, but what a year he's having.

Anyway, Hauver and Volpe were recent high draft picks, DeMarco was a 17th round pick in 2019, and Dunham signed as an undrafted free agent last year. Up and down the lineup, everyone is hitting with Tampa. It’s only half a season, but I’ve never seen an affiliate with this dominant an offense in all my years following the minors. They are something else.

3. 2021 draft prospect: California HS SS Max Muncy. The 2021 MLB Draft begins Sunday and J.J. Cooper (subs. req’d) reports MLB has informed teams the draft will be 20 rounds, the minimum number allowed under last year’s March agreement. The Yankees hold the No. 20 pick. Here is our 2021 draft prospect coverage archive.

First things first: no, this Max Muncy is not related to that Max Muncy, though they were both born Aug. 25th. Freaky. MLB.com ranks this Max Muncy the No. 38 prospect in the draft class and Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranks him at No. 52. Here’s video and here’s a snippet of MLB.com’s scouting report:

(He) is a high-energy player who gets high marks for his desire to constantly work to get better. Muncy has the chance to be an average hitter with perhaps above-average power when all is said and done. He has the ability to use that power to all fields. He can get too big and his overall approach still needs work, leading to some swing and miss, but the future impact is definitely there.

An average runner with a solid arm, Muncy would undoubtedly head out as a shortstop and would play there for Arkansas should he go on to college, but he could end up sliding over to third or second eventually. Those who believe in him might see a Dansby Swanson type, with a bit more power and a touch less hitability, with an offensive ceiling of someone like Ian Kinsler.

I understand why it happens but I hate putting big league comps on draft prospects. Kinsler hit .275/.355/.469 (115 wRC+) and averaged 26 homers and 29 steals per 162 games during his six years of team control! If that’s the comp you’re comfortable dropping on a player, he should be a top 10 pick. Sign me the hell up for the Yankees drafting a Kinsler type.

Anyway, Baseball America’s scouting report says Muncy “studies opposing pitchers, has a mature approach and is rarely overmatched.” They also say he “tinkered with his stance and swing early this season and struggled, getting disconnected between his upper and lower halves and showing a long swing that was late to velocity,” before correcting it late in the spring.

Had he not tinkered with his swing, Muncy would likely be considered a no-doubt first round pick right now. Instead, he’s seen as more of a possible late first rounder or second rounder. There are questions about his defense and long-term position, but it sounds like Muncy can really hit, and is a high-energy player who studies the game. Those intangibles are an obvious plus.

The whole “scouting director Damon Oppenheimer favors SoCal prospects” thing is outdated at this point (the last SoCal prospect the Yankees drafted in the top five rounds was Matt Sauer in 2017), though the “the Yankees prioritize good makeup” thing is very real, so Muncy fits in that regard. The No. 20 pick might be a reach, but he can hit and he checks the intangibles box.

(The draft begins Sunday night and I don’t have much to say about the Yankees heading into it. They’ve skewed toward position players early in the last few drafts but have mostly been linked to pitchers the last few weeks. In the old RAB days, I’d root for the Yankees to pick someone I already profiled so I could copy and paste. Now? Eh, whatever. The joys of no longer having to rush to post content. My bold prediction for No. 20: Anthony Solometo. No reason, just a guess. Might as well add him to Seigler and Volpe and corner the market on Tonys.)

4. Rapid fire thoughts. Split admission doubleheaders with seven-inning games is straight garbage. The Yankees did it following the rainout against the Mets last weekend (on the Fourth of July, no less) and teams all around the league are doing it. You paid to attend a nine-inning game? Too bad, you have to come back on this date and you’ll only get seven innings. What a sham. Seven-inning doubleheader games were necessary when so many games were canceled during the pandemic. This year should be the last time we ever see them though, and if teams are going to play split admission doubleheaders rather than single admission, they should be nine-inning games. The entire point of seven-inning games was to limit time at the ballpark! Now MLB is keeping their players and personnel at the park all day. I swear, this sport seems to do everything in its power to be fan unfriendly … It’s time for Yankees broadcasters to go back out on the road. Other networks are doing it (the ESPN crew was at Yankee Stadium this past Sunday) and there’s no reason the Yankees shouldn’t either. Everyone is doing their best working remotely (John Sterling called a home run off a replay thinking it was live action earlier this week), but the broadcast quality is so much better when the announcers are at the ballpark. They can talk to the players to get insights and anecdotes before the game, and call the action in front of them. Remote broadcasting was necessary during the height of the pandemic and that is no longer the case. Now networks are just doing it to save money. Every MLB ballpark is back to 100% capacity. YES Network announcers and John and Suzyn should be back on the road in the second half. It’s time ... And finally, longtime RAB readers will remember lefty Dan Camarena, who spent parts of eight seasons in the system after the Yankees drafted him in the 20th round in 2011. He spent one day on the MLB roster as an emergency long man in 2019, but didn't get into a game. Camarena, a San Diego native, is currently with the Padres as an emergency long man and he hit a grand freaking slam against Max Scherzer last night. Here's the video. That is truly incredible. You follow these guys through box scores all those years and most don't pan out, but when one of them does something amazing like that, it's so awesome. What a moment for Camarena (you can see his father in tears at the 0:23 mark of the video, and also former Yankees prospect Jorge Mateo waiting to give him a hug in the dugout, they were teammates at several stops over the years). 

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Tom asks: Purely hypothetical obviously and MTPS, but in the realm of Aaron Judge trades: how would Nolan Gorman and Matthew Liberatore fit? Both appear to be on the cusp of big league ready and are consensus top-50 MLB prospects. Would this be a good return for Judge in your view? Would this be a drastic overpay by the Cardinals?

Jeff asks: OK, I'll be that guy. What's a realistic package for Judge and which teams could you see as a landing spot for him?

Might as well lump these two questions (and all the other Judge trade questions) together. As I said the other day, I am against trading Judge because the Yankees should (and are going to) try to contend in 2022, and trading him makes that much more difficult. There’s no reason not to listen to offers. I just have a hard time believing a worthwhile package would be offered.

Tom’s Gorman and Liberatore proposal would get my attention. They are both top 50 prospects according to Baseball America (subs. req’d) and top 30 prospects according to MLB.com, they’re both currently in Triple-A and could plausibly help next year (if not later this year), and they both fill organizational needs. You’re not waiting two or three years for these kids.

Gorman is a natural third baseman who is learning second base because the Cardinals traded for Nolan Arenado. He’s a lefty hitter with big power and gosh, the Yankees need one of those. Liberatore is a lefty starter with four pitches (including a knockout curveball) and control. I’m not sure he can be a true No. 1, but the upside is considerable. That package gets my attention.

The bad trade value site says Gorman and Liberatore for Judge is in the ballpark, but the Cardinals would need to kick in a little more (full-size image):

I’m not sure the Cardinals would give up their top two prospects for 1.5 years of a player, even a great one like Judge. They’re not going to the postseason this year, so that 0.5 year is wasted. Also, the outfield isn’t a huge priority. Dylan Carlson, Harrison Bader, and Tyler O’Neill are one of those “not great but not bad enough to replace either” outfields.

What’s a realistic (not what I’d take, what’s realistic given the current market) trade package for Judge? You’re trading two postseason runs of an elite player and, needless to say, guys like that don’t get moved often. Here are some potential trade reference points:

• Starling Marte: Traded for two top five team prospects (Brennan Malone and Liover Peguero).
• Tommy Pham: Traded with a top 20 team prospect (Jake Cronenworth) for four years of an MLB player (Hunter Renfroe), a global top 100 prospect (Xavier Edwards), and a non-top-30 team prospect (Esteban Quiroz).
• J.T. Realmuto: Traded for five years of an MLB player (Jorge Alfaro), a top 25 global prospect (Sixto Sanchez), and a top 25 team prospect (Will Stewart).

The Realmuto trade seems most relevant to me. He was a truly elite player whereas Marte and Pham fall into the “really good players” category. Also, the Cronenworth component complicates the Pham trade as a reference point. It seems the Rays really underrated that guy. Cronenworth is a hell of a player. Nice get by the Padres.

Using the Realmuto trade as framework, the Yankees could reasonably ask for a good but not great young MLB player (like Alfaro) and a top 100 prospect (like Sixto), plus a third piece, in return for Judge. Judge would help just about any contender, so here are some hypotheticals based on the Realmuto framework:

• Angels: LHP Jose Suarez and OF Brandon Marsh
• Astros: OF Myles Straw and RHP Forrest Whitley
• Dodgers: UTIL Zach McKinstry and C Keibert Ruiz
• Giants: OF Steven Duggar and C Joey Bart
• Nationals: OF Victor Robles and RHP Cade Cavalli
• White Sox: 2B Nick Madrigal and RHP Jared Kelly

Reminder: My trade proposal sucks. McKinstry and Ruiz (No. 41 on MLB.com’s top 100 prospects) is interesting. A lefty hitter who can play all over and a switch-hitting catcher. I’m not sure the Dodgers would go for it given their stacked outfield, but it’s interesting enough. I could see Nationals GM Mike Rizzo parting with Robles and Cavalli to get a guy like Judge. Rizzo’s a big game hunter.

If you buy into Duggar’s breakout (.299/.375/.510 and 141 wRC+ this year), he would be a solid needs-filling target as a lefty hitting center fielder. Whitley is a big name but he’s been hurt nonstop for four years now (currently rehabbing from Tommy John surgery), and I’m pretty much over the “this guy could be good if he stays healthy” profile. I’m not trading Judge for that.

Based on the Realmuto framework, the originally suggested Gorman and Liberatore package would be a good get. Would the Cardinals do it? Would it be worth it for the Yankees? Dunno and dunno. From the looks of things, Judge could fetch two young players and a third piece should the Yankees do the unthinkable and trade their best player since Robbie Cano.

Geoffrey asks: What's up with Tim Locastro playing left with Gardner in center? All we've heard is how fast he is, but then they put the 37-year-old in center? Is Locastro not actually a very good fielder or something?

I don’t get it either. Fast doesn’t automatically equal good defensively, though Locastro looks pretty good in the outfield to me. Granted, he’s played like three games as a Yankee, but they wouldn’t have traded for him if they didn’t consider him a good defender. As fast as Locastro is, he doesn’t do enough other stuff to be a weak defender and stay on the roster.

Locastro has fewer than 1,000 career defensive innings at the MLB level and they’re spread out pretty evenly across the three outfield positions. Depending on your metric of choice, he’s either below-average (-5 DRS) or roughly average (-1 UZR) or above-average (+3 OAA) in center in the small sample. As for his true ability, your guess is as good as mine.

Brett Gardner says he’s more comfortable in center than in left, so maybe that’s all it is? If Locastro is comfortable in left, put Gardner where he’s most comfortable, and maximize the defense that way. The Yankees often did this with Mike Tauchman too (Tauchman in left and Gardner in center), so I’m going to assume they consider Gardner their best current option in center.

Lucky asks: Any chance we see Adam Warren this season?

Unlikely at this point, unless the Yankees gut their bullpen at the deadline and call him up just to help them get through the rest of the season. He has a 3.08  ERA in 26.1 innings with Triple-A Scranton but walks (15.7%) have been a real problem, which isn’t surprising in his first year back from Tommy John surgery. Control is usually the last thing to come back.

The RailRiders have been using Warren as their jack of all trades guy. Some multi-inning relief outings, some short bursts in late-inning situations, and two spot starts. In his last 12 games Warren has 17 walks and only 17 strikeouts in 21.1 innings, which ain’t good. Supposedly he’s been mostly 89-91 mph with the fastball too. Warren was never a big velocity guy, but that’s low.

Warren is a personal favorite and I’d love to see him come up and have success with the Yankees again. I’m not sure the guy we’ve seen at Triple-A this year can do that right now though. Maybe in a few weeks as he gets further away from elbow reconstruction, or maybe even next year? Not sure Warren is anything more than an up-and-down emergency arm now.

Anthony asks: Did the Padres ruin Luis Torrens' career or at least stunt his development by taking him in the Rule 5 and not giving him back?

The Padres carried three -- three! -- Rule 5 Draft picks on their MLB roster in 2017. It was one of the most aggressive tanking acts we’ll ever see. We’ll get to Torrens in a second. Here’s what the other two Rule 5 Draft picks did and are up to:

• RHP Miguel Diaz: Jumped from Low-A to MLB and allowed 35 runs in 41.2 innings. Since then he’s been an up-and-down depth arm (5.52 ERA and 5.42 FIP in 91.1 MLB innings) who’s been on and off the 40-man roster.
• UTIL Allen Cordoba: Jumped from rookie ball to MLB and hit .208/.282/.297 (55 wRC+) in 227 plate appearances. He hasn’t been back to the big leagues since and is no longer on the 40-man roster. Cordoba currently has a 101 wRC+ in Double-A.

Torrens played only 162 minor league games before being a Rule 5 Draft pick (he missed 2015 with shoulder surgery) and put up a .163/.243/.203 (17 wRC+) line in 139 plate appearances as San Diego’s backup catcher in 2017. He rated poorly as a pitch-framer and defensively overall. Torrens was in way over his head.

The Padres sent Torrens to High-A in 2018 (94 wRC+) and Double-A in 2019 (142 wRC+), and it looked like he was getting on track. As an up-and-down depth catcher the last two years, he’s hit .225/.291/.421 (97 wRC+) in 231 plate appearances, though he has nine homers this year. Torrens still rates as a poor defender, however. The Padres traded him to the Mariners in the Austin Nola deal last year.

We’ll never definitively know whether being in the big leagues as a woefully unprepared Rule 5 Draft pick ruined Torrens, though it’s hard for me to believe it didn’t hurt him at all. He missed his entire age 19 season with the shoulder injury and basically sat on the sidelines his entire age 21 season as a Rule 5 Draft pick. That’s a lot of lost reps and development time.

It’s also entirely possible Torrens would never have made it to the show had he not been a Rule 5 Draft pick, in which case he came out ahead given the 2+ years of service time and big league salary he’s accrued. Torrens turns only 25 in May and catchers are often slow to develop, so he could still be a late bloomer. Right now though, he looks like a non-factor.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)