June 18th, 2021: Cole, Loaisiga, Frazier, Boone, Severino, Sticky Stuff, Ford, Mailbag

UPDATE: No update, I just didn't get the post email, so I'm sending another one out.

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For the first time in franchise history, the Yankees have turned multiple triple plays in a season. The first (video) was a traditional 5-4-3 triple play the baseball gods owed us after watching the offense bang into nonstop double plays. Last night’s (video) was a nontraditional 1-3-6-2-5-6 triple play the baseball gods owed us after watching nonstop baserunning stupidity this year. I guess we’re even now. The Yankees are on pace to go 86-76 with 94 games remaining. Let’s get to today’s thoughts.

1. Weekly observations. According to STATS, the Yankees just swept a road series despite trailing in the seventh inning or later in all three games for the first time in franchise history. Only the Angels (seven) have more wins when trailing after six innings than the Yankees (six) this season. Huh. Who knew? The Yankees are now 3-7 and have been outscored 55-38 in games when they have a chance to finish a sweep this season. Not good, but it could be worse. Anyway, some thoughts on the last few days as we await word on Gleyber Torres’ stiff back.

Cole’s new approach?

The foreign substance reckoning is upon us and Gerrit Cole is under the microscope. He was excellent against the Blue Jays the other night, holding them to two solo home runs in eight innings. His second to last pitch was a 101.5 mph fastball (his second fastest pitch ever) and his last pitch was a 94.6 mph changeup. A 94.6 mph changeup! What the hell?

Cole’s spin rates were down significantly. He was missing close to 200 rpm on his fastball and slider, and that’s in the sticky stuff range. If a guy is missing, say, 50-75 rpm in a start, that can be attributed to normal fluctuation. 200 rpm though? Nah, that’s enough to indicate he’s not using foreign substances. Here is Cole’s average spin rate by start (all pitches types together):

"It's so hard to grip the ball. For Pete's sake, it's part of the reason why almost every player on the field has had something -- regardless if they're a pitcher or not -- to help them control the ball,” Cole told Marly Rivera after the game, eliminating all pretense that he didn’t use sticky stuff in the past. “… I had a really tough time gripping the baseball tonight, especially early when it was windy. I don't really care to be inflammatory here, so I am just going to leave it at that."

One thing that stood out to me was Cole’s fastball location. He’s typically an elevated fastball guy (he uses his elite velocity and spin to throw the ball by hitters upstairs), yet Wednesday he pitched down in the zone with this fastball, particularly to lefties. Cole was even annoyed with home plate umpire CB Bucknor a few times when he didn’t get the call on fastballs at the knees.

Here are two heat maps. On the left are Cole’s fastball locations in his first 13 starts, and on the right are his fastball locations in his last start. It’s a big difference (full-size image).

It’s really easy to connect the dots here and say that, despite having elite velocity (his 97.8 mph average fastball Wednesday was eighth best in his 218 regular season starts), Cole was unable (or simply not comfortable enough) to throw his fastball up in the zone without its usual spin, and he didn’t have his usual spin because he wasn’t using sticky stuff.

Also, Cole threw a season-high 20 changeups Wednesday, and maybe he threw all those changeups because he could no longer use his curveball and slider the same way without sticky stuff. Then again, Cole threw 19 changeups in a start on two other occasions this season, so 20 changeups isn’t a big outlier. I don’t think the changeup usage tells us anything meaningful.

We’re still very early in the post-foreign substance era and we have to be careful not to make too much of the numbers. That applies to spin rates, pitch usage, offense around the league, etc. This is definitely a thing to watch though. Cole becoming a fastball at the knees/changeup pitcher would be quite the twist. And hey, as long as he gets outs, who cares how he does it?

"We're all just trying to play by the rules, play by what the commissioner's handed out going forward," Cole told Rivera. "Spin rate is not everything. You can still pitch well if you don't have a high spin rate."

Loaisiga’s strikeouts

Last night Jonathan Loaisiga did something he had not done since April 27th: he struck out multiple batters in a game. Prior to last night’s three-strikeout appearance, Loaisiga had struck out only four of the 33 batters he’d faced in June (12.2%), and only 11 of the last 80 batters he’d faced overall (13.8%). Hard to believe given his raw stuff.

A few weeks ago I noted Loaisiga has reinvented himself as a two-seamer/changeup pitcher after working primarily with a four-seamer and a curveball the last few years. At a time when everyone is pitching north-south, Loaisiga started going east-west, and it’s working for him. An upper-90s sinking two-seamer and an upper-80s changeup is a hell of a combination.

Not surprisingly, Loaisiga’s ground ball rate has jumped as a two-seamer/changeup pitcher. As his strikeout rate has dipped, his ground ball rate has risen to 64.0%, second highest in baseball among the 192 pitchers with at least 30 innings (Giants submariner Taylor Rogers has a 68.8% ground ball rate). Here’s a graph:

Huh. Trading strikeouts for grounders is working for Loaisiga, so stick with it. It just caught me off guard how much his strikeouts have dipped. Loaisiga is among the game’s best in average exit velocity (84.2 mph) and hard-hit rate (21.6%) allowed, so he’s getting a lot of weak ground balls, and those are the best ground balls. Loaisiga is damn near impossible to square up.

I prefer strikeouts to ground balls (who doesn’t?), and the ground ball approach makes me a tad nervous because the Yankees have a sketchy infield defense, but it’s working. I didn’t expect Loaisiga to become a ground ball guy when he was coming up through the minors and early in his MLB career. I thought he’d be a strikeout guy. This transformation has been something else.

Frazier’s role

Thanks to his hot bat, Miguel Andujar has taken over as the starting left fielder. He’s started 25 of the last 30 games in left, which means Clint Frazier has been stuck with spot start duty the last few weeks. Clint has started 18 of the last 30 games and only two of the last eight games. Considering he’s 4-for-23 (.174) in his last 10 games, it’s hard to say this is the wrong move.

“I think the most important thing that we’ve done as a team is just stick together,” Frazier told Kristie Ackert after his game-winning double Tuesday (video). “Because inside that clubhouse, everyone that is in there, that’s what matters. We’re in this together. We’re trying to go out there and win ballgames.”

Andujar’s (re)emergence and the fact the Yankees are unwilling to play Frazier in center means Clint is a man without a defined role. He hasn’t hit much lately or this year overall (.188/.305/.319 and 80 wRC+), so he really has no one to blame but himself. The opportunity was there to take the left field job earlier this season and he didn’t capitalize. It is what it is.

Where does that leave Frazier? Do the Yankees carry him as a righty platoon bat? And what happens if the Yankees bring in another center fielder? In that case, Frazier would fall into the seldom-used fifth outfielder’s role Mike Tauchman occupied earlier this year. The Yankees could send Clint to Triple-A. Keeping him as depth given the injury risk in the outfield would be smart.

More likely, Frazier is trade bait, I think. His value is way down, but he’s not valueless. Lots of teams would happily buy low on a 26-year-old former top prospect who is under team control through 2024. Frazier is making $2.1M in his first of four years of arbitration-eligibility as a Super Two, and that’s money that can perhaps be better allocated under the luxury tax plan.

Trade Clint at the deadline and the Yankees free up about $700,000 in spending room. Figure Justin Wilson will be moved to offset salary as well, and that’s another $850,000 or so. Do I think Brian Cashman wants to trade Frazier to clear salary for other moves? Absolutely not. Do I think he will trade Frazier to clear salary if necessary? Without a doubt.

It won’t be easy now that Andujar is taking his at-bats, but the best thing Frazier can do these next few weeks is hit. It helps the Yankees win and it makes him more appealing to other clubs, and it is the easiest way to get more at-bats. At this point though, change is inevitable and necessary, and Clint is one of the most easily movable players on the roster.

“I promise you, and I promise our fan base, we are doing everything in our power to right the ship,” Brian Cashman told Bryan Hoch earlier this week.

Boone’s vote of confidence

In terms of on-field moves, Boone just had his best series of the season. He managed with urgency -- Aroldis Chapman started to get loose last night after Zack Britton hit the leadoff batter, and it would’ve been Chapman’s third appearance in three days, something the Yankees try to avoid with all relievers -- and he went 3-for-3 with pinch-hitting decisions:

• Tuesday: Clint Frazier pinch-hit for Brett Gardner and ripped a go-ahead double.
• Wednesday: Gary Sanchez pinch-hit for Kyle Higashioka and hit a go-ahead homer.
• Thursday: Chris Gittens pinch-hit for Tyler Wade and singled in two-insurance runs.

Earlier this week Cashman gave Boone a vote of confidence and I don’t think it was a “dreaded” vote of confidence. At least not in Cashman’s mind. His bosses may see it differently. “All these comments are my comments. I can’t speak for anyone above me, because I obviously have bosses and they obviously have their own thought processes,” Cashman told Andy Martino.

“Losing invites scrutiny on us all. We are all in this together. We made this bed and we’re gonna sleep in it and make sure we find a way to fix this together,” Cashman told Dan Martin. “... We’ve got really good coaches that know what they’re doing, and I think we have a really good manager who knows what he’s doing. That doesn’t mean you’re gonna get the results you want. You’ve got to stay at it. We’re in this together and I’m trying to figure this thing out.”

When the projected powerhouse offense has been among the least productive in baseball, and they’re also the worst baserunning team in the game, it’s hard not to roll your eyes at the “we’ve got really good coaches that know what they’re doing” line. That said, Marcus Thames isn’t swinging a bat and Reggie Willits isn’t running the bases. Ultimately, it’s on the players.

The Yankees have not made an in-season coaching change since June 1990 and I don’t think they’ll start this year. Cashman definitely won’t and I don’t think Hal Steinbrenner will either. They’re more likely to neatly part ways with Boone & Co. when his contract expires after the season than they are to can folks now, and scramble for replacements. Firing coaches now would satisfy the fan base’s bloodlust, though I don’t think it would solve any actual problems.

“It is easy to throw somebody under the bus,” Cashman told Martin. “It’s not something I believe in. It doesn’t mean I’m not willing to make changes if I felt they were warranted, but I don’t feel they’re warranted. This is something we all believed in when we started, but I also know I have to attack this with some urgency.”

2. Severino delayed a month. All things considered, it could’ve been worse. Earlier this week the Yankees announced Luis Severino’s return from Tommy John surgery will be delayed about a month by a Grade 2 right groin strain. He suffered the injury during his second minor league rehab start last weekend, and it looked bad. Worse than a one month delay bad.

Here’s what Aaron Boone said about the injury, via Brendan Kuty:

“He’s in New York now,” Boone told reporters via Zoom. “He’s already actually up and doing some things as far as on the treadmill and doing things like that. We’re trying to keep him active probably will try to keep his arm going. Even this week a little bit he’ll probably start some like edge CT down and everything, but we’ll certainly probably hold his return back by about a month. We were hoping to obviously get him back by the end of this month. That’ll obviously be on hold as he has to you know get that right over the next couple of weeks.”

…

“I think it’s a little bit of just one of those things that can happen from time to time,” Boone said. “There’s nothing to my knowledge to this point that we’ve identified that mechanically he was out of whack. In fact, along the way one of the good things I think about Sevy’s rehab process over the last year and a half is he really is in tremendous shape and has gotten his body as strong and as efficient as he’s probably ever been. So at this point it seems like it was a little bit of just a freak thing that can happen in the heat of competition, but obviously it’s something that we’ll tap into and try and continue to evaluate and hopefully put him in the best position to be healthy moving forward.”

Boone said the Yankees hoped to get Severino back before the end of June. Assuming five days between rehab starts and a 15-pitch increase each time out, Severino could have returned with an 80-pitch limit next Thursday, June 24th, or with a 95-pitch limit the following Wednesday, June 30th. The Yankees are home both dates (vs. Royals and Angels, respectively). 

The Yankees and Severino will do what they can to keep his arm in shape the next few weeks (from what I understand, pitchers with lower body injuries will throw while sitting down to keep their arm loose), though I imagine they’ll be conservative this soon after Tommy John surgery. I guess what I’m saying is, a one-month delay strikes me as the best case scenario. We’ll see.

Since the cherry-picked date of May 29th, Yankees starters have a 5.82 ERA (4.28 FIP) in 17 games, and that ain’t great. The underlying numbers aren't awful, but the rotation hasn’t been as good as it was earlier this season, when it kept the Yankees afloat despite the offensive ineptitude. The pitching wasn’t going to be that good forever, though the downturn is unfortunately timed.

Mike King replaced Corey Kluber in the rotation and was keeping the seat warm for Severino. Now he’ll remain in the rotation a little longer. King has completed five innings once in his four starts and he’s yet to throw more than 69 pitches in a game, and it appears to be by design. The Yankees don’t want him going through the lineup a third time. They probably have to stretch him out a little more now just to avoid overworking the bullpen.

With Deivi Garcia struggling in Triple-A (8.10 ERA and 6.63 FIP), the Yankees have minimal rotation depth at the moment. Luis Gil was moved up to Triple-A earlier this week (2.64 ERA and 2.49 FIP in 30.2 Double-A innings) and he might be the No. 6 starter right now. Either Gil or, uh, Brody Koerner, a 27-year-old with 4.46 ERA (4.49 FIP) in 34.1 innings with the RailRiders.

Given the delay, does it make sense to bring Severino back as a reliever rather than spend all that time stretching him out to start? Get him built up to two innings and 40 pitches or so, then stick him in the bullpen. The Yankees could even continue building him up from there, though sticking with him as a two-inning reliever works too. They have to consider it, at least.

For now, the Yankees know Severino’s return is no longer imminent, and the rotation as is could use help. Even if it’s only a No. 5 innings guy to push King back into a swingman role, the depth is needed. Severino could’ve been a difference-maker. Now the Yankees have to figure out how to cover a bunch of innings the next few weeks. It’s not great.

3. The sticky stuff crackdown. MLB’s crackdown on foreign substances will begin in earnest this coming Monday. The Yankees have an off-day that day, so they’ll be able to sit back and watch the chaos unfold before diving into it Tuesday. MLB sent out a nine-page memo detailing all the new enforcement protocols earlier this week. Here’s the short version:

• Starting pitchers will be checked at least once per game and relievers will be checked at the end of an inning or when he leaves the game (whichever happens first). There will also be random checks initiated by the umpires.
• Pitchers who get caught will be suspended 10 days with pay, which is a punishment in line with past suspensions for foreign substances (many of those 10-gamers were reduced to eight games on appeal).
• Any other players or staffers who assist with sticky stuff are also subject to discipline. Teams have to play short-handed while the player serves his suspension (similar to suspensions for fighting, throwing at a hitter intentionally, etc.)
• Everything except rosin is considered a foreign substance. Even sunscreen. That’s because umpires aren’t trained to differentiate between substances, and MLB won’t ask them to do so on the field.

“I think everyone certainly understands,” Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch about the crackdown. “It’s pretty clear, what’s in the memo and what the expectations are going to be, and what the crackdown is going to be. In a lot of ways, we’ve been preparing ourselves for something like this. Now we have a road map and know that enforcement’s coming.”

I have a bunch to say about this and I’m not sure where to start, so I’m just going to ramble and see where it goes. First, I’m torn on the in-season crackdown. On one hand, playing the first two and a half months under one set of rules and the final three and half months under a different set of rules is illogical (technically it’s the same rules with a different level of enforcement).

On the other hand, if you have a problem and you know you have a problem, and you have the ability to fix it right away, then fix it. The players are going to be mad, but so be it. As much as MLB is culpable, we’re here because the players abused the rules. MLB gave them an inch (sunscreen or pine tar for better grip) and they took a mile (Spider Tack and similar substances to weaponize spin).

Ideally, MLB and the MLBPA would work together to solve the foreign substances problem in the offseason, giving everyone plenty of time to adjust and prepare. The best solution seems to be developing an approved substance, and punishing anyone who crosses the line. A sticky ball like they have in Japan would be great. Then you can ban foreign substances entirely and make this a black and white issue with no gray area.

"We've heard about a universal substance. I certainly think that's something to be discussed," Gerrit Cole told Marly Rivera earlier this week. "I read a statement from the commissioner's office that this isn't about blaming anybody. I hope that we can remember that as an industry and just keep the lines of communication open in regards to this, between all three parties -- umpires, players, and the league -- and move in the right direction going forward."

Second, the injury concern is real. Already one player is blaming an injury on the crackdown. Tyler Glasnow went down with a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament earlier this week and will attempt to avoid Tommy John surgery with rehab. He said he stopped using sunscreen and had to grip the ball tighter, which put stress on his elbow. From Jesse Rogers:

"I switched my fastball grip and my curveball grip," an animated Glasnow said on a videoconference with reporters. "I had to put my fastball deeper into my hand and grip it way harder. Instead of holding my curveball at the tip of my fingers, I had to dig it deeper into my hand.

…

"Do it in the offseason. Give us a chance to adjust to it. But I just threw 80 innings, then you tell me I can't use anything in the middle of the year. I have to change everything I've been doing the entire season. I'm telling you I truly believe that's why I got hurt."

Glasnow is a bit of a whiner (he insinuated the Blue Jays stole signs after they roughed him up last month), though there’s merit to the idea his injury is related to not using sticky stuff. Jimmy Buffi, a biomechanical engineer and former Dodgers front office analyst, says the muscles used to grip the ball also protect the UCL, and when they’re fatigued, the UCL is vulnerable.

At the same time, former Yankee and current Rangers player development staffer Brandon McCarthy says players have known this was coming for a while now, and it was on Glasnow to adjust and prepare. MLB originally sent out a memo saying it would crack down on foreign substances last spring, but the plan was put on hold because of the pandemic. This didn’t come out of nowhere.

Also, if foreign substances are allowing pitchers to make the ball behave in unnatural ways that would otherwise hurt them, then isn’t that even more reason to ban them? That makes them a textbook performance-enhancer. If Glasnow, who has a history of elbow problems, can’t throw 100 mph with a snapdragon curveball without sticky stuff, then too bad. Learn to pitch in a way that doesn’t hurt your elbow. That said, the injury risk is real if pitchers start changing the way they hold the ball. Injuries could happen.

“I am a little concerned of injuries, especially after talking to Tyler,” Cole told Rivera (Cole and Glasnow are both involved in the union and MLBPA leadership had a call earlier this week to discuss the crackdown). “I hope that we can apply some feel to the situation. I would encourage the commissioner's office to continue to talk with us, please, because we're the ones that throw the ball. They don't. And we're the experts in this situation.”

Third, I’m not sure what to think about the idea that no foreign substances will put hitters at risk. Hit by pitch rates are already the highest in history, and isn’t it at least possible they will go down as pitchers sacrifice a little stuff for location now that they don’t have perfect grips? The fear is real (no one wants to get hit and no one wants to hit someone). I’m just not 100% sold on a massive imminent spike in hit by pitches. I guess we’ll see.

And fourth, there is definitely a labor component to the sudden foreign substance crackdown. I don’t think MLB’s intention was to drive a wedge in the MLBPA, but they’re certainly not upset it happened either. You have a former MVP calling out a record contract holder, and hitters and pitchers taking shots at each other in the dugout. From Jeff Passan:

INSIDE THE DUGOUT of a National League team this week, a passive-aggressive internecine squabble broke out. When two veteran hitters returned to the dugout after striking out, each said, loud enough for everyone around them to hear, "Sticky stuff." The starting pitchers in the dugout, tired of hearing hitters blaming their failures on a foreign-substance boogeyman, mumbled: "Be better." The snit didn't lead to any further words or fisticuffs. It did serve as a tidy microcosm of the debate bifurcating Major League Baseball.

As MLB's crackdown on the use of foreign substances by pitchers nears its enforcement date and players adjust to the sea change it's already causing, a divide has emerged, according to dozens of conversations with personnel around the game in recent days. To suggest it's as simple as pro-tack vs. anti-tack simplifies an extraordinarily complicated situation, one that is dividing organizations, friends and people who otherwise are ideologically aligned.

“I think this falls on the PA, the Players Association,” Rich Hill told the Associated Press. “I think that this is where something should have been done. The Players Association had the opportunity to work with MLB, and MLB used their strong hand to put it on the players, and that’s unfortunate that this is what happened. I feel like they should have come together and settled this, and handled it like professionals.”

Blaming the MLBPA for not fixing this when MLB looked the other way for decades is misguided and counterproductive. The league tacitly allowed pitchers to use foreign substances, and you can’t expect the pitchers to stand up and say “no no no, this is wrong.” MLB is the adult who let the kids go crazy in the candy store, yet the players get their hand slapped.

The union in-fighting is a fringe benefit. The big win for MLB is essentially turning sticky stuff into a bargaining chip heading into Collective Bargaining Agreement negotiations. They can trade an approved substance for something else, and the MLBPA is dumb enough to see that as a win for them. Rob Manfred sucks, but he’s not stupid. MLB created leverage out of nowhere.

The crackdown on foreign substances is overdue and yes, this could have been handled better. This was never going to be an easy fix, though essentially changing the rules in the middle of June isn’t great. Hopefully injuries don’t spike, and hopefully MLB and the MLBPA are able to find common ground on a sensible solution over the winter. That’s the best case scenario. Given the recent history between the two parties, I'm sure it'll be messy.

(Former big leaguer Jerry Blevins had a good little Twitter thread about sticky stuff and problems with the baseball, so check that out.)

4. Ford traded to the Rays. So long, Mike Ford. The Yankees traded Ford to the Rays for cash and a player to be named later yesterday, the team announced. The Associated Press says the cash sum is $100,000. Ford was designated for assignment last weekend, when the Yankees needed a 40-man roster spot to activate Zack Britton off the 60-day injured list.

“He's a talented guy that I think can be a good hitter in this league," Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch about the trade. “This is obviously a different opportunity for him. Now he turns into someone we might have to face and try to get out. He's certainly talented and we've seen him go through some really good stretches with us, especially in 2019. He's still talented. It's just been a little bit of a struggle these last couple of years."

Ford, 28, hit .259/.350/.559 (134 wRC+) with 12 home runs in 163 plate appearances in 2019. In the two years since, he authored a .134/.250/.276 (48 wRC+) line with five homers in 156 plate appearances, and he was unable to seize the first base job during Luke Voit’s absence earlier this year. This is only the fourth ever Yankees-Rays trade. The other three:

• May 24th, 2006: Rays send random Yankee Nick Green to the Yankees for cash.
• April 2nd, 2016: Yankees send Carlos Corporan to the Rays for cash.
• Feb. 20th, 2018: As part of a three-team trade, Yankees send Nick Solak to the Rays and receive Brandon Drury from the Diamondbacks.

The trade tells us two things. One, the Rays wanted Ford bad enough that they were willing to make a trade to get him. They didn’t believe he’d get to him on waivers. And two, the Yankees expected to lose Ford on waivers, and took something in a trade rather than the nothing* they would have received had another team claimed him.

* “Nothing” is inaccurate. The claiming team sends the player’s former team a $50,000 waiver fee, though the cash value in these trades is usually a little more than that to make it worth his former team’s while. In this case, the Yankees netted an extra $50,000.

Similar to the Adam Ottavino trade, the Yankees surely explored all other potential landing spots before sending Ford to the Rays. They didn’t want to send Ottavino to an AL East rival, but that was their best option, so they did it. The same is presumably true with Ford. If the Yankees could have sent him to the Rockies or Pirates or wherever, they would have.

That said, even if there’s only a 1% chance Ford comes back to bite the Yankees while with the Rays, wouldn’t it better to just put him through waivers and take your chances? Worst case is he winds up with the Rays as a waiver claim anyway, and you’re out the little you received in the trade (an extra $50,000 and likely an inconsequential prospect as the player to be named).

Let’s do some waiver math. During the first 30 days of the season, the waiver order is the reverse order of the previous year’s overall standings. From the 31st day on, it’s the reverse order of the current year’s standings by league. So, Ford would have passed through the American League before being exposed to the National League on waivers.

The White Sox have the best record in the league and the Rays have the second best. The Yankees are one of the other 13 AL teams, so Ford would have been exposed to 12 other clubs before getting to the Rays, who presumably would have claimed him given the fact they were compelled to trade something (no matter how little) to make sure they got him.

Is the chance Ford goes to one of those other 12 teams rather than the Rays as a waiver claim worth the trade return? I think so. $50,000 is nothing to the Yankees and the player to be named later won’t be significant (they traded Mike Ford, not Babe Ruth). Two of those other 12 AL teams are the Blue Jays and Red Sox, so maybe Ford winds up wrapping homers around the Pesky Pole, but eh.

I’ve already wasted too many words on Ford. He’s not very good, and you could look at this as the Rays making themselves worse by acquiring a not good player. Also, their 40-man roster is overloaded (nine players on the 60-day injured list!), so Ford’s days are probably numbered. He could get the axe when they need a 40-man spot for Wander Franco later this summer.

Ford’s run with the Next Man Up 2019 Yankees was fun. He’s been extremely bad the last two years though (not just bad, bad bad), and lefty hitting first base only guys are a dime a dozen. This cements Chris Gittens as the up and down first baseman for the next year or two, then someone else will come along and replace Gittens. It is the circle of Quad-A life.

5. 2021 draft prospect: Eastern Illinois SS Trey Sweeney. The 2021 MLB Draft will take place during the All-Star break and J.J. Cooper (subs. req’d) reports MLB has informed teams the draft will be 20 rounds, the minimum number allowed under last year’s March agreement. The Yankees hold the No. 20 pick. Here is our 2021 draft prospect coverage archive.

Sweeney, 18, was not drafted out of high school, and he first put himself on the prospect map with a strong showing in the wood bat Prospect League in the summer of 2019: .354/.453/.524 with seven home runs and way more walks (36) than strikeouts (25) in 52 games. Sweeney put up a .351/.439/.456 line in 14 games prior to the pandemic last year.

This spring Sweeney hit .382/.522/.712 with 14 homers and nearly twice as many walks (46) as strikeouts (24) in 48 games. The Ohio Valley Conference isn’t exactly top competition, but the numbers jump out. Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranks Sweeney the No. 55 prospect in the draft class. MLB.com has him at No. 82. Here’s Sweeney against potential first rounder Jordan Wicks (my write-up) and here’s part of MLB.com’s scouting report:

Sweeney has a big leg kick and a hitch and a lot going on in his left-handed stroke, but he has outstanding hand-eye coordination and makes the timing work at the plate. He has good feel for the barrel, controls the strike zone and makes hard contact to all fields against lefties and righties, good velocity and tough offspeed pitches. His hitting ability, strength and bat speed should produce at least average power, perhaps more if he adds more loft to his swing.

Sweeney's below-average speed limits his effectiveness at shortstop and will necessitate a position change at the next level. He has reliable hands and solid strength but doesn't cover enough ground at short. He profiles well at third base, should be able to handle any corner infield or outfield position and may be playable at second base.

For what it’s worth, Kiley McDaniel (subs. req’d) says there is “simmering belief in the industry that (the rankings are) underselling” Sweeney, and Jonathan Mayo listed him as a prospect with helium. Also, Jim Callis hears the Yankees “might be the ceiling” for Sweeney, meaning he could be in the mix for the No. 20 pick, though he won’t come off the board earlier than that.

Sweeney is tall for a shortstop (listed at 6-foot-4 and 200 lbs.) and he did play some second and third bases in summer ball. Clearly though, he’s a bat-first prospect. It’s the “give me a guy with contact skills and plate discipline, and we’ll figure out the power and the position later” profile. Those players are increasingly popular as strikeout rates continue to soar.

The No. 20 pick seems like it would be a reach for Sweeney (it’s not a truly elite bat, and you can find more well-rounded players at that slot), though the No. 55 pick could be in play. That said, college middle infielders who have performed usually don’t stay on the board long. If not No. 20, then it might be not at all for the Yankees and Sweeney.

6. Rapid fire thoughts. Clarke Schmidt has thrown multiple bullpen sessions and is getting close to facing hitters, Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch. At this point, I wouldn’t bother stretching Schmidt out to start. There’s little reason to believe he can hold up in that role. Put him in the bullpen the rest of the season and see whether he can help the MLB team, then maybe give starting another try next year … Welcome back and so long, Ryan LaMarre. His hamstring is all better, and he was activated off the injured list earlier this week and outrighted to Triple-A Scranton, so he’s no longer on the 40-man roster. At some point either Corey Kluber or Luis Severino will come off the 60-day injured list to take that 40-man spot, unless the Yankees need to use it for someone else first … And finally, old buddy Masahiro Tanaka will pitch for Japan in the Olympics next month, according to Jason Coskrey. He’ll pair up with Tomoyuki Sugano atop the rotation. MLB is only allowing non-40-man roster players to participate in the Olympics, but Japan is shutting down Nippon Pro Baseball for two weeks and sending their best players. “I feel happy, but at the same time I feel the responsibility of wearing the Hinomaru again,” Tanaka said. He pitched in the 2008 Olympics as well as the 2009 and 2013 World Baseball Classics. Tanaka has a 2.90 ERA with 47 strikeouts and nine walks in nine starts and 59 innings this year. I miss that guy.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Brad asks: As we approach the trade deadline and the Yankees being very inactive the last couple of years at the deadline, what was the last major trade they made at the deadline? It seems the last 3-5 years the Yankees have been more aggressive during the offseason and only added smaller pieces during the season. Is it Sonny Gray? We gave up 3 decent prospects but all were injured (Kaprelian and Fowler) or running out of organizational favor (Mateo). My next question I might have answered in my last question but who is the “best” prospect that was traded during the year in the last 5 years? Sheffield was traded during the offseason but am I forgetting someone? A third question is do you think a better prospect will be traded at the deadline this year than your answer to the second question. Obviously all of this is opinion based and probably a waste of time but this has to be more exciting than actually watching the current product on the field.

I’m comfortable calling the Sonny Gray trade a “major trade.” He finished third in the Cy Young voting 19 months earlier, and he had two and a half years of team control remaining, so he wasn’t a rental. Dustin Fowler, James Kaprielian, and Jorge Mateo were all top 10-ish team prospects at the time too. Yep, that’s a major trade for me.

Zack Britton, Edwin Encarnacion, Jaime Garcia, J.A. Happ, and Lance Lynn were rentals. I’d call them “notable trades” rather than “major trades.” The Todd Frazier/Tommy Kahnle/David Robertson trade with the White Sox definitely qualifies as major. The Yankees brought in three big leaguers and traded away a very good prospect in Blake Rutherford.

I consider Justus Sheffield the best prospect the Yankees have traded away in recent years -- Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked him the No. 27 prospect in the game soon after the deal -- though that was an offseason trade. I’ll go with Rutherford as the best prospect the Yankees have traded at the deadline since this core emerged in 2017. Rather easily too.

Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked Rutherford the No. 36 prospect in the game not long before the trade. Fowler was No. 89 on that list, and neither Kaprielian nor Mateo made it. Dillon Tate (Britton trade) and Billy McKinney (Happ trade) were good but not great prospects at the time of their deals. I think the answer is clearly Rutherford here.

As for the final question, no, I do not expect the Yankees to trade a Rutherford caliber prospect at the deadline this year because Jasson Dominguez is their only Rutherford caliber prospect. The current version of Deivi Garcia (i.e. getting hit around at Triple-A) and Oswald Peraza aren’t at that level yet. I don’t see the Yankees doing anything that big at the deadline.

Julian asks: If it turns out Cole's success in 2018-19 was affected mightily from using sticky grip and his pitching takes a huge hit if he doesn't use it anymore, do the Yankees have a case for voiding the contract or some sort of lawsuit?

Nah. There’s nothing in the uniform player’s contract that allows teams to void contracts for rules violations. If the Yankees couldn’t void Alex Rodriguez’s contract after he admitted using performance-enhancing drugs (multiple times), they won’t be able to void a contract for foreign substances. They can try, but it’s hard to see this qualifying as a breach of contract.

Three things about this hypothetical. One, this is not a can of worms the Yankees want to open. They are almost certainly complicit. Everyone knew Gerrit Cole was using sticky stuff with the Astros, so, at best, the Yankees looked the other way. At worst, they encouraged it and enabled it by providing foreign substances to Cole and all their other pitchers (minor leaguers too).

Two, the Yankees voiding Cole’s contract after sticking with players through far more serious allegations (i.e. domestic violence) would be abhorrent. And three, I’m pretty sure I’d be done with the Yankees if they voided the contract of one of the like six likeable players on the team because it turns out the foreign substances crackdown makes the deal ~inefficient~. Just pack up the blog and ride into the sunset at that point.

Joe asks: Can we tackle the Judge & Sanchez upcoming FA contract situations? Crazy to think there is merit to all sides of this - sign em both/sign Judge only/sign Sanchez only/sign neither. Judge is scary as hell given he’s already 30 and injury prone. Stanton basically fills that spot. Sanchez is an enigma that you don’t want to be caught in a big contract with.

My guess is Gary Sanchez is a goner after next season, maybe sooner. A trade or non-tender this offseason can’t be ruled out. Quality catchers are scarce, but Sanchez has gone backwards the last few years, and he’ll be 30 in Year 1 of his free agent contract. The catcher aging curve is brutal, and I can see the Yankees walking away from Gary’s 30s.

Aaron Judge is a much more complicated case. He is the team’s best player, indisputably. He is the closest thing they’ve had to a face of the franchise player since Derek Jeter, and replacing him on the field would be damn near impossible. That all said, Judge will be 31 in Year 1 of his free agent contract, he has a long injury history, and who knows how he’ll age at that size?

Also, we have no idea what the next Collective Bargaining Agreement will look like. Will the luxury tax threshold increase? Will there be a salary cap? Will there be contract terms limits like the NBA and NHL? My guess is the next CBA will look a lot like the current CBA, only with slightly higher luxury tax thresholds. I don’t expect an overhaul of the sport’s economic system.

Unless Judge goes to the Yankees and is willing to take a sweetheart deal, I think the best thing to do is let next year play out, then worry about a contract when he becomes a free agent. The Yankees can win any bidding war, and it seems unlikely Judge can do anything between now and then that raises his earning potential in a significant way. Hard to be better than he’s been.

Chris asks: Are we at the point standings-wise where Cole should be getting the ball every 5th day, regardless of off days? If so, what other win-now strategy moves would you make to maximize each game’s chance of winning (i.e. increased usage for particular relievers, pushing Judge/Stanton to play everyday, etc.)?

I think so. The Yankees can play this by ear and urge Gerrit Cole to tell them when he thinks he could use an extra day, but yeah, every game is important now, and the more Cole starts (and the less Mike King and Jameson Taillon start), the more likely it is the Yankees win enough games to reach the postseason. It really is that simple.

Cole threw 91.2 innings last year, postseason included. He’s already thrown 89.2 innings this year, so he’s a start away from eclipsing last year’s workload. Shane Bieber has already thrown 90.2 innings this year after throwing 82 innings last year, and he went down with a shoulder strain earlier this week. Catastrophic injuries are the No. 1 concern, though I also worry about guys heading for little two-week breathers with sore shoulders as the workload climbs.

If Cole thinks he can handle it, then do it. And if the Yankees need to back off at some point, then do that too. Trusting players to be honest about their availability is tough (they all want to play, no matter how much it aches), but this is also something that can be monitored through velocity and spin rates and all that. The data can indicate when a player is fatigued.

As for other win-now strategies, I think the Yankees should put Miguel Andujar at first base and Clint Frazier in right until Luke Voit returns, which turns Chris Gittens and Rougned Odor into bench guys. I’d rather have Frazier in the lineup than either of those two. Aaron Judge in center field more often is another one, though that worries me given his aches and pains this year.

Also, play Giancarlo Stanton in the outfield. I mean, holy cow, what are we even doing here? One game (or even just six innings) in the outfield every now and then so Judge can get a turn at DH without losing a key bat isn’t the end of the world, is it? Maybe it is, but Stanton has been a DH exclusively since last year and he’s still getting hurt. I’m willing to try him in the outfield.

Gary Sanchez catching Cole is another possibility. He caught him for two innings the other night and the Earth didn’t fall off its axis, so it can be done. That said, Sanchez will need days off, and pairing Cole with Kyle Higashioka is fine. My preference would be to put Gary behind the plate as much as possible. Sitting out Cole’s starts isn’t the end of the world, I guess.

If the Yankees had another starter available, I’d say put Jameson Taillon in the bullpen, though they don’t, so I won’t. His secondary pitches and command are iffy, but the fastball is great and he’s typically very good the first through the order. The Yankees could always try starting again next year too. They don’t have a replacement starter though, so Taillon stays in the rotation.

Paul asks: When we see stats about how someone does against certain pitch types, how much is that really telling us? Isn't that type of stat ignoring the context of the rest of the pitch sequence?

Quantifying pitch sequencing is the next frontier. I’m certain teams are already working on it (if they haven’t cracked the code already), but us outsiders are in the dark. Baseball Prospectus has “tunnel pairs” on their player pages, which tell us how well two pitch types tunnel (i.e stay on the same plane) when thrown back-to-back, though it doesn’t tell us how well they perform (i.e. his changeup is more effective after a slider than a fastball, etc.).

So when I cite a stat like, say, opponents are hitting .230 with a .378 slugging percentage and a 36.4% swing and miss rate against Jordan Montgomery’s changeup, it’s incomplete information. How does Montgomery’s changeup perform when he throws it off a fastball compared to when he throws it off his curveball? That’s the sort of thing the public has yet to quantify. Maybe teams have the answer, but right now the exact value of pitch sequencing is the great unknown.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)