April 13th, 2021: 3-4-5 Hitters, First Base, Fifth Starter, Injuries

The season is 10 games old and six times the Yankees have allowed three runs or fewer. They've allowed four runs three times (twice in 10-inning games with the automatic runner at second) and 10 runs once. The Yankees are averaging 3.40 runs allowed per game even with the 10-5 loss last Friday, fourth fewest in baseball. The run prevention has been great in the early going. Too bad the offense hasn't held up its end of the bargain yet. The Yankees are on pace to go 81-81 with 152 games remaining. Let’s get to today’s thoughts.

1. Middle of the order struggles. 10 games into the season, what has gone right for the Yankees? Gerrit Cole, obviously. Aaron Judge has been great around his weird side issue. Gary Sanchez is having the strong start he needed. The bullpen has been outstanding other than one bad Nick Nelson appearance, with Aroldis Chapman in particular looking out of this world filthy (100% whiff rate on the splitter!).

What’s gone wrong for the Yankees? Eh, a little too much. Corey Kluber and Domingo German have thrown 13.1 innings in four starts combined. The infield defense has been shaky at best (and it’s not just Gleyber Torres). Clint Frazier is already getting benched because he had a bad series. Jay Bruce has been unplayable. The Yankees lead the league in double plays (11) and have had as many runners thrown out at the plate (five) as any other two teams combined (the O’s have three and no other team has more than two).

More than anything though, the offense has gone wrong for the Yankees. They had lots of traffic during the Rays series (34 baserunners in 28 innings) but The Big Hit mostly eluded them, and they wasted rallies in unexpected ways. Aaron Hicks is one of the toughest hitters to double up in the game (only seven double plays in over 1,000 plate appearances from 2018-20) so of course he hit into double plays in back-to-back games. Brett Gardner misread a wild pitch and got caught too far off third. DJ LeMahieu has already hit into as many double plays this year as he did all last year (three). This is the official screen grab of the 2021 Yankees (source):

As a team, the Yankees are hitting .232/.323/.369 (98 wRC+) this year, and the offense has a 76.2% strand rate. The league average is 72.2%. They haven’t hit for much power (only 11 homers in 10 games?) and the fact they’ve paired a .278 AVG with men on base with a .224 AVG with runners in scoring position is some kind of cruel joke. I’m not even mad. I’m amazed they’ve pulled that off. The middle of the order has been the single biggest culprit. Here’s where the 3-4-5 hitters rank so far this year:

• AVG: .158 (30th)
• OBP: .273 (27th)
• SLG: .237! (30th, Marlins are next lowest at .308)
• wRC+: 52 (30th)
• HR: 2 (28th)

Hicks (43 wRC+), Giancarlo Stanton (44 wRC+), and Torres (57 wRC+) have been the 3-4-5 hitters just about every game this year, and the 3-4-5 spots are hitting a combined .158/.273/.237 (52 wRC+). For reference, Sandy Leon hit .137/.296/.242 (58 wRC+) last year. The Yankees are getting Sandy Leon production from the middle of the lineup in the early going. Yuck.

“I think as a group, we've struggled a bit to catch our stride,” Aaron Boone told Corey Hersch over the weekend. “We're obviously going to hit, so it's just a matter of us collectively starting to string some good at-bats together as a group, and from there we'll take off. I know these guys are capable of doing that, but we have to start doing that together and making life difficult for the pitcher.”

The 3-4-5 hitters are hitting .158/.273/.237 (52 wRC+). The other six lineup spots are hitting .270/.349/.437 (122 wRC+). Quite the contrast. It’s tough to put runs on the board consistently when three of your best hitters are in a funk no matter where they are in the lineup, but especially so when they’re in the middle and you have LeMahieu (121 wRC+) and Judge (146 wRC+) setting the table consistently.

I understand wanting to drop Hicks from the No. 3 spot and that’s fine, but it doesn’t really solve anything. You’re just rearranging furniture while the walls cave in. And, if Hicks is being dropped for performance reasons, who gets elevated for performance reasons? Sanchez? Gio Urshela, who finally got things going over the weekend? Gardner with Frazier continuing to ride the bench? Those are the only options at this point.

The solution to the 3-4-5 hitters hitting .158/.273/.237 (52 wRC+) is not changing the 3-4-5 hitters, because those guys are still going to be in the lineup, and the Big Situation is still going to find them. You’ve watched baseball long enough. You know this works. The solution is either get those players performing up to their usual standards, or changing the personnel. That latter isn’t happening with Hicks, Stanton, and Torres. They’re staying in the lineup, as they should.

If Boone and the Yankees rearrange the lineup and put together a new 3-4-5 combination, fine. If it makes them feel better, whatever, but the impact will be minimal unless these guys start hitting. I know no one wants to hear it, but after two weeks, the best option is staying patient and letting them work through it. The season is 10 games old. 10. It’s so early.

It's so early Urshela was hitting .231/.259/.269 (48 wRC+) on Saturday and .323/.344/.484 (129 wRC+ on Sunday. The offense’s problems (not cashing in on rallies, runners getting thrown out at the plate, etc.) are the type of things that happen to every team throughout the season, and not a reason to make sweeping changes with core personnel. It’s too way early for that. Patience is no fun but it is necessary.

“You know you’re gonna take lumps, even when you’re a really good club,” Boone told Dan Martin over the weekend. “... If the guys we have, as talented as they are, are routinely going up there stringing together good at-bats, I promise you, the results are gonna be there. And somebody is gonna have to pay for the struggles of this first week.”

2. The first base problem. The season is not even two weeks old and I am already out of patience with Jay Bruce. He is not the reason the Yankees have started slowly, but he is a reason. It’s one thing when a core player like Giancarlo Stanton or Gleyber Torres starts slow. It’s another when a role player who wasn’t good the last three years continues to be not good for a fourth straight year.

Bruce was third on the Yankees in plate appearances through Saturday’s game and he is 3-for-27 (.111) on the season. He went 4-for-6 in his first three Grapefruit League games, which started the “he could make the team” conversation, then he went 3-for-28 (.107) to close out the spring. So, all told, Bruce has six hits in his last 55 at-bats (.109). Yuck.

The strikeouts are too high (31.3%) and the exit velocity is among the worst in baseball (83.1 mph). Bruce has put 17 balls in play and only two were over 95 mph. By all accounts he’s a great guy, and I don’t blame him for the shaky first base defense given the situation he was thrown into, but first base is pretty much the only place the Yankees can make an upgrade right now.

The Yankees say Luke Voit is expected to return sometime next month. Does that mean May 1st? May 15th? May 31st? Beats me. Figure another 4-6 weeks without him. What are the Yankees going to do at first base in the meantime? Here are their options, ranked in order of how likely I think it is to happen.

Stick with Bruce, but sprinkle in Odor

This is already happening. Bruce was out of the lineup Sunday and Monday with DJ LeMahieu at first and new addition Rougned Odor at second. I suspect Odor’s go-ahead single Sunday will buy him a longer look the next few days (weeks?), though I would not bet on Bruce being glued to the bench permanently. He’ll get a start soon, maybe even tomorrow night against righty Ross Stripling. This is a temporary solution and the easiest solution. When in doubt, bet on the path of least resistance. This is it.

"All (Odor's) at-bats were pretty competitive. I liked how he moved in the field and turned a nice double play. He’s gonna play and get opportunities. It’s a day-to-day thing," Aaron Boone told Dan Martin yesterday. "I feel like the at-bat quality has been there. He’s had hard-hit balls and like the energy he brings to the field every day and the hunger he’s playing the game with. He’s handled himself well at second base. He’s earned some opportunities.”

Move LeMahieu to first base full-time

Cut Bruce out of the picture without removing him from the roster. Turn him into a seldom-used bench player with LeMahieu and Odor at first and second full-time, respectively. This falls into the “why not? it can’t be worse” bucket of transactions. It’s not a great reason to make a move, though it does happen, and it feels like something that could happen at first base.

Under this plan Bruce could play late in blowouts and also fill-in after someone is lifted for a pinch-runner. He stays on the roster but is greatly de-emphasized and becomes the team’s No. 1 cheerleader, essentially. The Yankees like to keep everyone involved and use their entire roster, which is a complication. Not sure I buy treating Bruce as a dead roster spot as a thing they’d do just yet.

Go with Ford (or Gittens?)

Now we’re in “remove Bruce from the roster” territory and I’m not sure the Yankees are ready to go there yet. At least not until Voit (or Miguel Andujar?) returns. Mike Ford is next in line on the first base depth chart because he’s on the 40-man roster and because he’s likely a better player than Chris Gittens, Spring Training exit velocity be damned (Gittens’ big season was “Mike Ford in Triple-A” numbers in Double-A.)

Drop Bruce from the roster, bring Ford up, put him at first base, and hope he does what the Yankees hoped Bruce would do (wear out the short porch). If nothing else, Ford is an actual first baseman and would be a defensive upgrade over Bruce, not that he’s great in the field. Ford was pretty bad last year, though there were flashes with more consistently playing time in 2019. Maybe he can be that guy again? Added bonus here is less playing time for Odor, who is ripe for overexposure.

The other alternate site option is Derek Dietrich, who’s played a little first base in his career and has experience elsewhere. He has some pop and takes enough walks and gets hit by enough pitches to post respectable OBPs. Dietrich would’ve been on the Opening Day roster if the Yankees believed he was a better option than Bruce. Are two weeks changing their mind?

Make a trade

The Yankees traded for Odor five days into the season and it was their earliest in-season player-for-player trade since Tom Wilson for Marc Marini and Ryan Martindale four days into the 1996 season. Wilson had a few cups of coffee from 2001-04. The other two never reached MLB. The Eduardo Nunez for Miguel Sulbaran trade was made seven days into the 2014 season, and that about sums up the last quarter-century of the club’s April trade history.

Meaningful April trades are rare because every team is still trying to figure out what they have and are hesitant to give up depth. Most April trades are minor, or involve players like Nunez and Odor, who were designated for assignment when the Opening Day roster was set. Should the Yankees make another April trade, possible targets include:

Greg Bird, Rockies. I’m joking! Kinda. Bird went 11-for-45 (.244) in Spring Training and is now at Colorado’s alternate site. I could see the Yankees bringing him back because they’ve wanted Bird to make them look smart for years, so why stop trying now?

Adam Frazier and Colin Moran, Pirates. The Pirates would probably trade anyone not named Ke’Bryan Hayes at any moment. Just make an offer. Frazier fits best as a super utility player (who can’t play short) and Moran is a classic platoon corner bat. Both are making decent money ($4.3M for Frazier and $2.8M for Moran), which doesn’t fit with the luxury tax plan, and the Yankees would have to give up legitimate prospects to get either player. Also, Moran wouldn’t fit the roster once Voit returns. Frazier would still be useful though.

(The Pirates also have former Yankee Todd Frazier at the alternate site. Might not even need to trade for him. He might have an out in his contract that lets him leave if another team is willing to put him on their MLB roster. Then again, Frazier has been pretty bad the last few years and he couldn’t make the Pirates, sooo ...)

Niko Goodrum, Tigers. Had a nice little breakout in 2018 (101 wRC+) and has since settled in as a switch-hitting super utility guy who will make an out in 70% of his plate appearances and pop double-digit homers with enough at-bats. Goodrum does play just about every position, none particularly well, but versatility is nice. Tigers GM Al Avila is notoriously difficult to deal with (look how badly he overplayed his hand with Michael Fulmer and Matt Boyd), so he’ll probably want Deivi Garcia for Goodrum or something like that.

Ryan O’Hearn, Royals. The Carlos Santana signing pushed O’Hearn out of the picture in Kansas City. Just play Ford though. Seriously. O’Hearn is a very similar lefty hitting Quad-A first base masher. The Yankees don’t need to reinvent the wheel. They have their own O’Hearn.

Screw it, try Tauchman

The YOLO approach. Mike Tauchman has been taking ground balls at first base since Spring Training and he was going to play there in the final Grapefruit League game, but he fouled a pitch into his shin the day before and was out of the lineup. Tauchman played a little first base in summer ball during his college days. For all intents and purposes though, it’s a new position.

“(First base) was kind of in play before Luke’s injury and became more on the front-burner since,” Tauchman told Dan Martin two weeks ago. “I can only play four positions (as a lefty thrower), so I might as well play all four. If that’s something that can lead to a couple more at-bats, it’s something I want to do. So far, so good. We’ll see what happens.”

The Yankees once put Rob Refsnyder at first base after what amounted to an afternoon crash course. Alex Rodriguez, Gary Sheffield, and Vernon Wells all started games at first base as a Yankee late in their careers. We’ve seen the Yankees do the “we’ll put anyone at first base” thing and it wasn’t pretty. They don’t want to do it, but they will.

Putting Tauchman at first base makes no sense. He’s even less experienced at the position than Bruce, so chances are he’ll be a defensive downgrade, and it’s not like he’s a lock to be better at the plate either. Tauchman at first is one of those “it’s late in a blowout or someone got hurt and we’re in a bind” things. Not something you do on purpose to start a game.

Sign a free agent

I have this as the last possible outcome for two reasons. One, signing a free agent involves spending money, and the Yankees aren’t exceeding the $210M luxury tax threshold. With a trade, you can at least maneuver the money in such a way that it has minimal impact on the payroll. Case in point: Odor. He counts as $0 against the luxury tax thanks to fancy accounting.

And two, there aren’t many free agents available at this point and there are even fewer who are worth signing. Here are the top unsigned free agent position players by projected 2021 WAR:

1. C Tyler Flowers: +0.5 WAR
2. OF Yasiel Puig: +0.5 WAR
3. IF Jedd Gyorko: +0.2 WAR
4. 1B/OF Ryan Braun: +0.1 WAR
5. Several tied at +0.1 WAR

Puig is persona non grata and Braun is basically retired. Signing Flowers makes sense given the catching depth chart, though he doesn’t help the first base situation. Gyorko was good last year! He hit .248/.333/.504 (119 wRC+) with nine homers with the Brewers, yet they still declined his $4.5M club option. He’s now managing in the new MLB Draft League.

Anyway, signing a free agent to replace Bruce isn’t happening. There aren’t any appealing free agents and the Yankees aren’t cutting into their available luxury tax payroll space (about $4M right now) any more than they already have. They’re staying in-house or making a financially favorable trade. Whatever they do, first base has been a major problem in the early going, and waiting it out with Bruce (or Odor) doesn’t make as much sense as it does with other struggling Yankees.

3. The fifth starter situation. It took two starts for Domingo German to go from Spring Training Cy Young to the alternate site. He got roughed up in his first two starts and the homer problems that plagued him down the stretch in 2019, when he pitched to a 4.93 (5.66 FIP) with 2.57 HR/9 (23.6% HR/FB) in his final 87.2 innings, have returned. Four dingers in seven innings so far.

“He fills up the strike zone, which we love,” Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch. “He’s going to go after guys and really commands his pitches. It’s usually not a lot of free passes with him. You can certainly live with some solo shots here and there. Overall, I don’t feel like he’s far off from really dialing in a good one. I think (the homers) are just a product of filling up the strike zone as much as he does.”

The Yankees demoted German out of necessity because the back-to-back short starts over the weekend taxed the bullpen. The upcoming schedule (off-days Thursday and Monday) means the Yankees do not need a fifth starter again until next Saturday, though I don’t think that factored into the decision too much. If they needed their fifth starter again this Thursday or Friday, they still would have demoted German for a fresh reliever, and figured things out.

“I would expect, when his 10 days* are up, he’ll probably be inserted back into the middle of the rotation,” Boone told Dan Martin. “That’s the expectation right now. Truly, nothing has changed about where I view Domingo right now. I think he’s throwing the ball well, and I think he’ll have a really strong season for us.”

* MLB was supposed to change the 10-day rule to a 15-day rule for pitchers last year to curb bullpen shuttling, but didn’t because of the pandemic. I thought it happened this year, but I guess not. It is listed as 15 days on the official site, but that’s wrong. The Rays called up Trevor Richards after optioning Brent Honeywell yesterday, and Richards spent 11 days in the minors. It’s still the 10-day rule. It’s not the 15-day rule yet for whatever reason.

Deivi Garcia is on roughly the same schedule as German and the Yankees could easily insert him into the vacant rotation spot. I don’t think they want to do that though. Conor Foley says Deivi threw a 51-pitch simulated game at the alternate site Friday, which tells me the Yankees are holding back on his innings now so he can be available later, in August and September and (hopefully) October. I don’t think they will deviate from that plan unless absolutely necessary.

“(Workload) is something we're always focused on, probably a little more this year based on last year and some of the situations our starters are coming out of,” Boone told Lou DiPietro. “For example, I was just kind of playing around with a potential layout for the next three weeks. We'll have conversations, and best we can try to keep these guys in the loop about what their next start looks like, and then maybe two or three weeks ahead.”

Mike King is the other potential German replacement. He had that great six-inning relief outing last week, easily the best game of his MLB career, which put him in the conversation for a start, if nothing else. The Yankees usually don’t make decisions based on one or two start samples and I don’t think they’ll do it here. I think they’ll use the off-days to push German’s start back to next Saturday and reinsert him into the rotation, and call up King to replace Albert Abreu once King’s 10 days in the minors are up this Friday.

German has not pitched well in his first two starts (opponents are hitting .353/.389/.735 against him!) but it is also only two starts, and the guy barely pitched last year (16.1 winter ball innings in 2020). The Yankees will need all their arms to soak up innings this year, including German. The alt site demotion happened because the Yankees needed a fresh reliever and German’s performance made it easy. I don’t think it’s a permanent demotion or an open door for King or Garcia. I think German will be right back out there when that spot comes up next Saturday.

“Spring Training and the regular season are just different,” German told Hoch. “I do feel really good (physically). That’s how it goes, hitters make adjustments, then it is up to us as pitchers to make adjustments.”

4. 2021 draft prospect: Georgia HS RHP/SS Bubba Chandler. The 2021 MLB Draft will take place during the All-Star break and J.J. Cooper (subs. req’d) reports MLB has informed teams the draft will be 20 rounds, the minimum number allowed under last year’s March agreement. The Yankees hold the No. 20 pick. Here is our 2021 draft prospect coverage archive.

Chandler, 18 on draft day, is a legitimate quarterback prospect who is committed to play football and baseball at Clemson. If nothing else, that gives him plenty of negotiating leverage going into the draft. The rankings are split on him. Baseball America (subs. req’d) has Chandler the No. 19 prospect in the draft class while MLB.com has him way down at No. 69.

Here’s video of Chandler taking batting practice. I can’t find video of him pitching. Sorry. Here’s a snippet of MLB.com’s scouting report:

Chandler presently works with an 88-93 mph fastball, though his quick arm and very projectable 6-foot-3 frame portend plus velocity once he's physically mature. His secondary offerings all show the potential to become solid or better, starting with a mid-70s curveball with good depth. He also uses a slider and changeup, both of which arrive in the low 80s … Chandler is one of the more athletic pitchers in the 2021 high school class, which bodes well for his control and command, as do his clean arm action and delivery. He's also an intriguing prospect as a switch-hitting shortstop with solid power potential and speed.

Baseball America’s scouting report notes Chandler’s curveball has “above-average spin rates,” which is absolutely a thing that must be included in draft scouting reports in the year 2021. The consensus is Chandler’s future is brightest on the mound (over shortstop and football), though being able to hit and play the infield presents a nice fallback plan.

Chandler is a pure projection pitching prospect. He’s got good size and he’s a good athlete, so you’re expecting him to add velocity, sharpen his secondary pitches, and refine his command as he matures and focuses on pitching full-time. The Yankees have had success helping pitchers add velocity and sliders, and Chandler’s an athletic ball of clay for the player development staff.

The Yankees have a history with two-sport draft prospects but it is a distant history. The most notable example is random Yankee Drew Henson. There was also John Elway in the 1980s, and random Yankee Andrew Brackman in 2007. They went after the best athletes, though that all happened in the pre-bonus pool days. Back then teams could pay draftees whatever they wanted.

Chandler strikes me as the type of prospect the Yankees would target, though not in the first round. They’ve drafted two high school pitchers in the first round since Phil Hughes in 2004: Ty Hensley in 2012 and Ian Clarkin in 2013, and they were willing to roll the dice with Clarkin partly because they had three first round picks in 2013 (Eric Jagielo and Aaron Judge were the others). Hensley and Clarkin both got hurt, though Clarkin at least provided value as a trade chip (in the big Todd Frazier deal).

High school pitchers are increasingly unpopular these days because they’re so risky. The tippy top guys are still drafted very high. The others essentially have their development outsourced to colleges. The Yankees could target Chandler with their second round pick (No. 55 overall), but there are two potential problems. First and foremost, he may no longer be on the board. Duh.

And secondly, the Yankees may not be able to afford Chandler. If he’s still on the board when the No. 55 pick rolls around, it’s likely because he’s trying to leverage football into an above slot bonus. The Yankees have a $6.9M bonus pool this year ($7.3M if they max out overages), and that might not get it done. Not unless they cheap out at No. 20 and/or punt their other picks. Eh.

Players like Chandler (good but not elite prospect with leverage) tend to wind up in college, so while I think the Yankees would have interest after the first round, I have a hard time thinking it could work financially. Not unless Chandler is willing to walk away from football -- baseball is said to be his first love -- and take a slot bonus, or something close to it.

5. Remembering a random Yankee: Brandon McCarthy. This week’s random Yankee came by request and is a pitcher who had one of the best half-seasons in recent franchise history. Here’s the random Yankee archive. You can find links back to everyone we've covered there.

The White Sox selected McCarthy out of a Colorado junior college in the 17th round of the 2002 draft. He was taken one pick before Russell Martin, so that was a hell of a 17th round. McCarthy gradually climbed the minor league ladder with Chicago and made his MLB debut in May 2005. He spent most of 2006 in the bullpen and had a 4.39 ERA in 151.2 innings from 2005-06.

McCarthy was a popular trade target at the time because he was young (22) and huge (6-foot-8) and had power stuff. The White Sox finally got an offer they could live with in Dec. 2006, and sent McCarthy to the Rangers in a five-player trade. The trade boiled down to McCarthy for lefty pitching prospect John Danks.

"When I talked to (White Sox GM Kenny Williams), he said he got bowled over by a deal," McCarthy told Scott Merkin. "It was going to take something he really felt comfortable with to make it happen, and he felt comfortable with this one. It was weird to see it happen that fast. After two years of trade rumors, it finally happened, and I hadn't heard a rumor about this one at all."

Things went south for McCarthy almost immediately after the trade. He battled a shoulder issue throughout 2007 and had a 4.87 ERA in 101.2 innings. In 2008, McCarthy allowed 11 runs in 22 innings around an elbow issue. Shoulder trouble limited him to 97.1 innings (4.62 ERA) in 2009, and he had season-ending surgery that July. He missed all of 2010 while rehabbing.

The Rangers removed McCarthy from the 40-man roster in Nov. 2010 and he signed a one-year prove yourself contract worth $1M with the Athletics. He returned from shoulder surgery in 2011 and had the best season of his career, throwing 170.2 innings with a 3.32 ERA. McCarthy remade his mechanics during shoulder surgery rehab and ditched his four-seamer in favor of a two-seamer and cutter.

"I was a four-seam guy without a plus fastball,” McCarthy told Susan Slusser in Spring Training 2011. “I had a big curveball and (an okay) four-seam fastball, not a great combo in the Major Leagues. I kind of had to adjust."

McCarthy remained with the A’s as an arbitration-eligible player in 2012 and again pitched well, throwing 111 innings with a 3.24 ERA around a summer shoulder issue. His season came to an abrupt end on Sept. 5th, when he took a line drive to the head (video). McCarthy suffered an epidural hemorrhage and a skull fracture, and needed emergency surgery to relieve cranial pressure. Without a quick response, McCarthy’s injuries would’ve killed him.

"From the bottom of our hearts, (my wife) Amanda and I want to thank everyone who was involved in responding to and treating my injury. We could not have been in better hands," McCarthy said in a statement after being released from the hospital on Sept. 11th. "… Now we look forward to continuing the healing process, and returning to baseball and our normal lives in the weeks and months ahead. Go A's!"

The Diamondbacks signed McCarthy to a two-year contract worth $15.5M that offseason and, remarkably, he recovered in time for Spring Training. “I'm glad this one is out of the way so I don't have to hear about it anymore,” McCarthy told Bob Nightengale after making his Spring Training debut in 2013. He had a 4.53 ERA in 22 starts and 135 innings that season.

McCarthy started poorly in 2014 (5.01 ERA in 109.2 innings) and the D’Backs were a last place team that would go on to lose 98 games, so he became a trade candidate. The Yankees, despite their big offseason (Carlos Beltran, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brain McCann, Masahiro Tanaka), flirted with .500 pretty much all year in 2014, and they needed pitching help with Ivan Nova (elbow) and Michael Pineda (shoulder) hurt. (Tanaka went down with his elbow injury soon after the McCarthy trade)

On July 6th, three days after I wrote about him as a possible trade target, the Yankees landed McCarthy in a 1-for-1 trade with Arizona (RAB post). Vidal Nuno, who somehow made 14 (!) starts for the Yankees in 2014, went to the D’Backs in the trade. McCarthy, then 30, was an upgrade over Nuno and the Yankees were hoping to make a run at a postseason spot.

“Quality stuff. Pounds the strike zone. Lots of ground balls, which helps at our stadium … McCarthy was better than what we had, so we improve when we can,” Brian Cashman told Joel Sherman after the trade. The Yankees had a plan when they acquired McCarthy too. They wanted him to get back to throwing his cutter, a pitch the D'Backs de-emphasized.

“I feel like myself again. (The D’Backs) didn’t want me throwing it anymore. They wanted more sinkers away, but I feel like I need that pitch to be successful,” McCarthy said. “The Yankees came to me right away and said, ‘We need to bring the cutter back into play.’ They obviously looked back and saw, ‘When he’s good he was throwing cutters. When he’s not, he wasn’t.’ I was glad to hear it because I was going to tell them that anyway. It’s been frustrating because I felt like I’ve been throwing better this season than any other year.”

The Yankees were attracted to McCarthy because they thought he was better than his surface numbers indicated (5.01 ERA and 3.82 FIP), because they felt letting him throw the cutter would help, and because his velocity was up. Here’s a fun graph. The velocity spike happened in 2014:

McCarthy had an immediate impact. He allowed one earned run in each of his first three starts as a Yankee, and no more than two earned runs in seven of his first eight starts as a Yankee. His best start as a Yankee came on Aug. 21st, when he struck out eight in a four-hit shutout against an admittedly terrible Astros team (video).

“He's been really, really good,” then-manager Joe Girardi told the Associated Press. “We knew he was a better pitcher than his numbers indicated.”

The Yankees won McCarthy’s first five starts and had a 21-14 run in late July and early August, keeping them in the race. With Tanaka hurt and Hiroki Kuroda being merely good rather than great (3.71 ERA in 2014), McCarthy was the Yankees’ best starter down the stretch, including allowing four runs total in his first three September starts to help the Yankees remain relevant.

“It’s something else to add to your resume when you’re done, a story you can tell someone that they won’t care about later on. But in the meantime, it’s something cool,” McCarthy told David Waldstein after throwing an Immaculate Inning (nine pitches, three strikeouts) against the Rays on Sept. 17th (video). He is one of only six Yankees to throw an Immaculate Inning, joining Al Downing, Ron Guidry, Ivan Nova, A.J. Burnett, and Dellin Betances.

McCarthy’s time as a Yankee ended on a sour note. The Orioles punished him for five runs in 5.1 innings in Game 157, when the club’s postseason hopes were on life support. In 14 starts as a Yankee, McCarthy had a 2.89 ERA (3.22 FIP) with 82 strikeouts in 90.1 innings. In those 14 starts he …

• … allowed no more than one earned run six times.
• … allowed no more than two earned runs 10 times.
• … completed five innings all 14 times.
• … completed six innings 12 times.

McCarthy was very effective and a workhorse despite all the injuries earlier in his career. “I’d prefer to be anywhere where I’m wanted but this would be a hard place to turn down. It’s been a great time here … The way the organization goes about its business makes perfect sense to me. It’d be hard to find a better fit than here,” McCarthy said about possibly re-signing with the Yankees after the season.

Ultimately, a reunion didn’t happen. McCarthy was pushing for a four-year deal and the Yankees wouldn’t go there given his injury history, so they traded for Nathan Eovaldi to fill the rotation spot. McCarthy eventually got his payday. The Dodgers gave him four years and $48M, and it is still the second largest contract the Andrew Friedman regime has given to a free agent from another team, behind only A.J. Pollock’s four-year, $55M deal.

"There was nothing that didn't intrigue me about the Dodgers," McCarthy told Eric Stephen after signing with Los Angeles, adding he was familiar with Dodgers then-GM Farhan Zaidi from their time together with the Athletics. "I grew up 10 miles from the stadium. The Dodgers were what I knew, they were what I looked up to as a kid."

McCarthy spent three years with Los Angeles (he was part of their 2017 World Series losing team and he took the loss in Game 2 that year, the only postseason appearance of his career) before being traded to the Braves in the big Adrian Gonzalez, Matt Kemp, Scott Kazmir salary shuffle. McCarthy appeared in 48 games (44 starts) and threw 234.1 innings with a 4.65 ERA around injuries during the four-year contract.

McCarthy retired following the 2018 season and he goes down as one of the most successful pitching rentals in Yankees history, if not the most successful. Among players to make no more than 15 starts (with zero relief appearances) as the Yankee, McCarthy is the all-time leader in WAR (ignoring Gerrit Cole, who made his 15th start as a Yankee last night):

1. Brandon McCarthy: +1.6 WAR (14 starts in 2014)
2. Rich Beck: +0.7 WAR (3 starts in 1965)
3. Marty Bystrom: +0.3 WAR (15 starts from 1984-85)
4. Deivi Garcia: +0.2 WAR (6 starts in 2020)
5. Several tied with +0.1 WAR

Soon after his playing career ended, McCarthy joined the Rangers as a special assistant and is still with the club. He has a hands-on role in player development and helps their young pitchers implement whatever their analytics crew cooks up.

(Nuno had a 3.49 ERA in 98 innings in a year and a half with Arizona. He was traded to the Mariners for Mark Trumbo in 2015 and to the Dodgers for Carlos Ruiz in 2016. Nuno also spent time with the Orioles and Rays and has a 4.06 ERA in 377 big league innings. He’s been pitching in the Mexican League since 2019.)

6. Rapid fire thoughts. So long, Thairo Estrada. The Yankees traded Estrada to the Giants for cash over the weekend. San Francisco sent him to the alternate site. All told, Rougned Odor cost the Yankees three players: Estrada (designated for assignment to clear a 40-man roster spot) plus Antonio Cabello and Josh Stowers (traded to the Rangers). Three too many, if you ask me, but whatever. Hopefully Sunday’s go-ahead single is the start of Odor making me look stupid … Couple injury updates: Miguel Andujar (wrist) has started hitting off a tee and could graduate to full batting practice soon. “He’s probably -- if things continue to progress -- another week or so where he’s (taking batting practice). He’s starting to come out of the woods a little bit,” Aaron Boone told Brendan Kuty. I hope the Yankees have had Andujar getting familiar with first base these last few weeks. He doesn’t need his right (non-catching) wrist to take ground balls and throws over there. Clarke Schmidt (elbow) has not started throwing and received a cortisone injection after going for a second opinion yesterday. “They feel like hopefully this should solve the issue to get him over the final hump. We expect, if it does work in the next couple days, he should start throwing sometime later this week or next week,” Boone told Dan Martin. Schmidt was shut down 3-4 weeks seven weeks ago. I’m not expecting to see him on an MLB mound anytime soon. The Yankees should proceed under the assumption Schmidt will be a non-option all season, and treat anything he gives them as a bonus. Zack Britton (elbow) is doing well. His recovery is all about the incision. They’re not waiting for a muscle or ligament to heal or anything like that. Once the incision is healed, Britton will start throwing. Luke Voit (knee) is also doing well. He went for his two-week checkup yesterday and Boone told Marly Rivera that Voit is at least a week away from starting baseball activities. Once that happens, figure he’ll need 3-4 weeks to get back to game readiness … And finally, Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d) reports the trade deadline will be July 30th this year rather than July 31st. July 31st falls on a Saturday with a bunch of afternoon games, and the league doesn’t want teams scrambling and holding guys out of the lineup and things like that. MLB did something similar in 2016, when they pushed the deadline back a day to Aug. 1st because July 31st fell on a Sunday. Smart, sensible decision. It just means teams have one fewer day to make trades this year.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)