March 26th, 2021: Roster Decisions, Garcia, Kluber, Tauchman, Most Important Yankees, Mailbag

At this time next week the Yankees will either be 1-0 and on their way to a World Series title, or 0-1 and the season will already be lost. Lots at stake on Opening Day. Spring Training is almost over and meaningful baseball is right around the corner. Thank goodness. Hopefully no one steps on a banana peel and gets hurt between now and then. Here is the final link to the Grapefruit League television broadcast schedule, and here are today’s thoughts.

1. Latest roster news. It’s almost time to set the Opening Day roster. Officially, the roster does not have to be filed with MLB until the morning of Opening Day, but teams will have everything in place when they break camp, so everyone knows who is going where. We should know the Opening Day roster (and at least have an idea of the alternate site roster) come Tuesday’s post. Here’s the latest on the roster machinations.

Opt out decisions

Thursday was the deadline for Article XX-B free agents (six-plus years of service time and on a minor league contract) to use their opt outs. More accurately, it was the deadline to inform the team they’re using their opt out*, and the team now had 48 hours to respond, either by putting the player on the 40-man roster or releasing him.

* If the player does not use the opt out and the team keeps him, they have to pay a $100,000 retention bonus, and he gets a June 1st opt out. Teams get around the bonus by releasing the player and re-signing him to a new minor league contract though. Another loophole the MLBPA must fix in the next Collective Bargaining Agreement.

The Yankees have five Article XX-B free agents in camp: Jay Bruce, Jhoulys Chacin, Robinson Chirinos, Derek Dietrich, and Adam Warren. We’ve heard nothing official about their opts out, though Aaron Boone strongly indicated Bruce used his. Thursday afternoon Boone said Bruce is being held out of workouts the next 48 hours as he awaits clarity on his roster status, so yeah.

“I think he’s going to stay away until we make a decision,” Boone told Brendan Kuty. “(We’re) trying to get different points of view and (have) everyone weigh in on different things before we make a final decision.”

There have been no indications about the other opt out decisions. My guess is Chirinos (wrist) and Warren (shoulder) did not use theirs given their injuries. Rolling the dice and looking for a job as an injured 30-something seems like a bad idea. My guess is Dietrich used his and will get an MLB job elsewhere. Chacin? No idea. Could see it going either way.

The Yankees figure to take the maximum 48 hours to make their decision just in case there’s an injury between now and then, creating an opening for Bruce. I’m sure they’ll gauge the trade market for Mike Tauchman during that time (Andy Martino says as many as eight teams have interest), and figure out the best course of action.

Eloy Jimenez blew out a pectoral trying to rob a home run the other day and will miss 5-6 months, and the White Sox have little depth behind their starters, so they could have interest in Bruce or Tauchman. The Cardinals lost Harrison Bader to an elbow injury, so they’re another possibility. We’ll find out which way the Yankees go tomorrow. For now, everything is in limbo.

Wilson’s injury

Justin Wilson had an MRI on his tight shoulder and the Yankees say it revealed “nothing actionable,” which I guess means he doesn’t need surgery. He’ll receive treatment and resume a throwing program in the coming days. Good news? Good news. Good news has become bad news a bunch of times in recent years though, so I’m not going to exhale just yet.

“The answer is, ‘I don’t know,’” Boone told Dan Martin when asked whether Wilson will be ready for Opening Day. “I feel like we got pretty good news on the MRI. We’ll see where we are in a couple days as things unfold.”

I’d bet on Wilson starting the year on the injured list. Opening Day is six days away and he’s still a few days from starting a throwing program. There’s not enough time for Wilson to get back on a mound, get comfortable, and convince the Yankees he’s ready to get big leaguers out. Let him start the year on the injured list and build up properly rather than rush him back.

Latest cuts

The Yankees reassigned Kyle Barraclough, Socrates Brito, Ryan LaMarre, and (the injured) Asher Wojciechowski to minor league camp Wednesday. All four have MLB time but not enough service time to opt out of their contracts before Opening Day, so they’re all good bets to go to the alternate site and serve as MLB depth options in April.

There are now 37 healthy players remaining in big league camp. Domingo German is the odds-on favorite to be the No. 5 starter, so the only remaining questions are the final bench spot and the last three bullpen spots. Here’s the updated roster situation:

The last bench spot could go either way. If the Yankees get a good trade offer for Tauchman, they could deal him and stick with Bruce (or Dietrich). If no trade comes together, then I could see them letting Bruce (and Dietrich) walk, and sticking with Tauchman. I think those last three bullpen spots have King, Luetge, and Nelson written all over them.

2. Grapefruit League observations. Before we get to today’s Grapefruit League observations, let me note I wrote a blurb about Aaron Judge not hitting a home run this spring and me not being worried about it, only to have him hit a home run Thursday night (video). Figures. The post is in the content graveyard, so check it out there. Now to the latest observations.

Deivi’s bad start

If the Yankees are using Spring Training performance to decide the No. 5 starter’s spot, Deivi Garcia finally gave them the clunker they needed to go with Domingo German. Garcia got hit around by the Blue Jays earlier this week (3 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 2 K) and wasn’t sharp at all. His location was poor and his velocity was down. The fastball numbers:

• March 4th: 92.2 mph average and 94.0 mph max
• March 9th: 92.6 mph and 95.4 mph
• March 14th: 92.6 mph and 94.5 mph
• March 19th: 93.6 mph and 95.4 mph
• March 24th: 91.8 mph and 94.5 mph

The top end velocity was where it needs to be, so this isn’t a Justin Wilson situation where Garcia’s velocity was down 2-3 mph across the board. Hopefully it’s just a late March dead arm phase and Deivi is back to where he needs to be next time out. (For what it’s worth, Deivi told Dan Martin he feels “fine,” and the Yankees have given no indication he’s hurt.)

“I thought his stuff was alright, but just not that crisp finish that we've seen where there’s bite on the breaking ball or he locates it properly,” Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch after Garcia’s poor start against the Blue Jays. “I do feel like he’s in a pretty good spot. He just lacked that consistency with his pitches today.”

Garcia’s velocity was down and he was wild too, most notably missing way above the zone with his fastball, and to his gloveside with everything else. I saw someone mention Deivi moved back to the third base side of the rubber, though that’s not the case. I went back and rewatched the game, and Garcia was on the first base side throughout.

The Yankees moved Garcia from the third base side of the rubber to the first base side at the alternate site last year and his control improved considerably. He’s still on the first base side. Nothing’s changed. I feel like the clunker against the Blue Jays was just a bad day and not a worrisome trend. If his velocity is down again next time out, then alarm bells will go off.

The poor start almost certainly closed the book on the No. 5 starter’s race, however. I thought German was in the lead coming into Spring Training, and it wasn’t until the final week of Grapefruit League games that Garcia made it easy for the Yankees. Either way, they’re going to need both guys. No team gets through a season with only five starters.

“In a way, it can be like an internal battle,” Garcia told Hoch. “You're trying to make the adjustments. You're not getting to where you want as far as executing and pitching. But at the same time, you have to understand that outings like this will happen. It’s important to keep trying.”

Kluber still searching for command

I’ve gone from “I hope Corey Kluber stays healthy” to “I hope Corey Kluber finds his command,” because it hasn’t been good his last two Grapefruit League starts. Earlier this week he walked three Tigers in 3.2 innings -- Detroit had their A lineup on the field and they were the hardest to walk team in baseball in 2020 -- and threw only 39 of 71 pitches for strikes.

“I just had a hard time today getting comfortable on the mound,” Kluber told Greg Joyce. “I didn’t probably do as good of a job as I would have liked to making that adjustment, figuring out what it is that felt a little bit off. I searched for it a little bit out there, sprayed it around a little bit more than I would have liked to. But ultimately had to work through a couple lengthy innings, minimize damage, kind of made pitches when I needed to for the most part.”

Here are Kluber’s pitch locations against the Tigers. He was all over the place, and the plot doesn’t show how much the catcher had to move his glove even on pitches in the zone or on the corners. Kluber didn’t hit his target very much that day.

“I've kind of gone through a normal progression to this point, as far as building up,” Kluber told Hoch following that start. “I would have liked to have commanded a little bit better today, but as far as physically and the progression of pitch count, I got the work in that I needed to, which is good.”

The good news is Kluber feels good physically. He’s a veteran dude who knows exactly what he needs to do to get ready for the season, so if he feels good about his progression, who am I to complain? The bad news is the obvious lack of command. Kluber can’t seem to get the ball where he wants it, and with only one spring start remaining, he doesn’t have much time to fix it.

Kluber’s had a weird schedule the last few weeks. He’s twice had to throw simulated games because his turn fell on an off-day (the only two off-days of the spring, go figure), so he’s only made three Grapefruit League starts. In those three starts his sinker and cutter velocity was more or less where it was in 2019, but down from 2018.

I’m not worried about a soon-to-be 35-year-old pitcher losing velocity between 2018 and 2021. Velocity loss is normal at this age and with Kluber’s career workload (and injuries), and he was never a hard-throwing blow-you-away type anyway. Kluber’s been a low-to-mid-90s guy who succeeds with wipeout breaking balls, and by avoiding the barrel with cutters and sinkers.

Kluber has also succeeded with really good command, historically. He was difficult to square up because he lived on the corners, and we’re still waiting to see that guy. Maybe Kluber just needs more time to get back to normal after throwing 36.2 innings the last two years? I hope that’s the case. I’d feel a lot better about him if we see better location in his final spring start.

Tauchman’s pop

Mike Tauchman has been Jay Bruce’s opposite this spring. Bruce started well and cooled down, and Tauchman started poorly and has since gotten hot. He went 3-for-15 (.200) with a homer in his first six games and is 4-for-11 (.364) with two homers in four games since. This is all so ridiculous, isn’t it? We’re talking about 15 at-bat samples in March. I hate Spring Training.

What is notable is Tauchman’s increased exit velocity. He’s put 15 balls in play in Statcast parks this spring and six have had 95+ mph exit velocity, or 40%. Last year it was 24% (39% in 2019). Tauchman even hit a homer against a 96 mph fastball the other day (video). He’s hit one homer against a 96+ mph pitch in his regular season career. Last season Tauchman swung at a 96+ mph pitch 23 times. The breakdown:

• 11 foul balls
• 8 whiffs
• 2 line outs (97.6 mph and 60.3 mph exit velocities)
• 1 ground out (94.3 mph exit velocity)
• 1 pop up

On fly balls and line drives, Tauchman had a 91.4 mph average exit velocity in 2019, which was below the league average (92.8 mph). Last year that was down to 86.2 mph (!). Tauchman did not hit the ball with authority at all last season. In the small sample size of Spring Training, he has a 95.8 mph average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives. Hmmm.

Tauchman struggled against velocity in 2019 and really struggled against velocity in 2020. Early on in camp he said he played through a shoulder injury last year (a shoulder injury he hid from the Yankees), and I never know what to make of stuff like that. Spring Training nonsense or a legitimate injury? We hear lots of stories like that this time of year.

"Ultimately, I felt as though I could play," Tauchman told Hoch. "There was a large part of the season where I didn't feel like myself. It was difficult for me to take the swings that I wanted to take. Whether it was consciously or subconsciously, I found a way that I felt like I could swing and get through games, and I developed some bad swing patterns. I feel like I'm in a lot better position to have success this year."

The exit velocity supports the shoulder injury. The things Tauchman was unable to do last year (hit the ball hard, catch up to velocity) are consistent with a shoulder injury. It’s tough to take your A swing when your shoulder is barking. I need way more than a couple dozen Spring Training at-bats to buy into Tauchman, though the early data is promising.

Shoulder injury or no shoulder injury, Tauchman has hit the ball harder this spring than last year, and he has done damage against a 96+ mph fastball, which he didn’t do last year. Exit velocity is not something you can fake either. You can fake being a .300 hitter for a few weeks, but you aren’t going to randomly hit a ball 100 mph. It’s either in you or it’s not, like a 100 mph fastball.

Those six weeks in July and August 2019 were probably the best six weeks of Tauchman’s life. I wouldn’t expect him to ever do that over an extended period of time. The real Tauchman is probably somewhere between 2019 and 2020, and that guy’s a good fourth outfielder. We’ll see how the Jay Bruce situation plays out. Tauchman’s at least made the decision difficult.

3. Most important Yankees in 2021. The Yankees are the best team in baseball outside the NL West, at least on paper. FanGraphs projects them at 95.1 wins, behind only the Dodgers (99.4) and Padres (95.4). PECOTA has them behind only the Dodgers (103.5 vs. 98.5). Very good team projects to be very good. News at 11.

As with every team, some members of the Yankees are more important to the team’s success than others. Here are the five players I consider most important to the 2021 Yankees.

1. Gerrit Cole

An obvious No. 1. The Yankees went upside over reliability this offseason, which is a great idea, but also a risky approach to building a roster. Corey Kluber and especially Jameson Taillon have looked good this spring, but 162 games is a looong season, and the Yankees aren’t going to work them too hard. The kids (Deivi Garcia, etc.) will have workload limits too.

Simply put, the Yankees need Cole to give them a mental break every five days. Go out, win a game, and eat some innings. This is not quite a CC Sabathia in 2011 situation, when Sabathia had a prop up a rotation that included zombie Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia (and an unproven Ivan Nova). The Yankees asked a lot of Sabathia that year.

This is more like Mike Mussina in 2004. Offseason pickups Kevin Brown and Javy Vazquez had upside but also risk (Brown’s age, Vazquez’s transition from the National League), and the Yankees leaned on Mussina to give them peace of mind every five days. Go out and pitch well, and let me not stress out about going to the bullpen. Know what I mean?

The Yankees need Cole to chew up innings in the regular season and be a dominant ace in the postseason. The latter is more important than the former, but you have to get through the regular season before you can worry about October. Bottom line, it’s really hard for me to see the Yankees getting where they want to go with Cole being something less than amazing.

2. Gary Sanchez

Sanchez had a disaster 2020 and the Yankees survived. That does not mean they can do it again in 2021. For starters, the Yankees barely survived Sanchez’s bad season. They would not have made the postseason under the 10-team format and they needed the Orioles to beat the Blue Jays on the final day of the season to avoid being the No. 8 seed, and they went 17-21 in their final 38 games. The Yankees survived Gary’s bad year. They didn’t thrive.

Secondly, papering over an important player having two crummy months is much different than having to cover a bad 162-game season. There’s no reason to believe Kyle Higashioka can hold up under a starter’s workload (he visits the injured list every year even as a part-timer) and the catching depth chart behind him in really thin:

1. Gary Sanchez
2. Kyle Higashioka
3. Robinson Chirinos (out several weeks with a broken wrist)
4. Rob Brantly (there’s a reason he’s played only 29 MLB games the last seven years)
5. Max McDowell (has never played above Double-A)

It’s sort of amazing a team with championship aspirations didn’t do more to improve its depth at a demanding position with a ton of inherent injury risk. Sanchez is coming off a disaster season. The Yankees really couldn’t do more to protect themselves behind the plate? I guess we’re gonna hope Brantly is the catcher version of Gio Urshela if called upon.

I see it this way: Good Sanchez is arguably the best catcher in baseball, and the drop off from Good Sanchez to Bad Sanchez, or Good Stanton to Higashioka (or Brantly), is enormous. We’re talking 4-5 wins, potentially, maybe more, and that could be the difference in the division race. The Yankees’ internal replacement level behind the plate isn’t especially high.

Since this core emerged in 2017, the Yankees have had their best seasons when Sanchez had his best seasons (2017 and 2019). That’s not a coincidence. When he’s right, the Yankees have the advantage behind the plate in nearly every game they play. When he’s not (or when he’s hurt), the Yankees are going to be scrambling at catcher. I’d like to avoid that.

3. DJ LeMahieu

On paper, the Yankees have a powerhouse lineup that should rank among the highest scoring offenses in the game. It is not without questions though. Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are perpetual injury risks, and Sanchez and Gleyber Torres are coming off disappointing seasons. Aaron Hicks kinda sorta fits into both the injury risk and disappointing season categories.

LeMahieu and Luke Voit are the only regulars who are going into the season without any real questions. Even Gio Urshela is coming back from elbow surgery, and Clint Frazier has no track record as a full-time player. You can count on LeMahieu and Voit to stay on the field and put up numbers as much as you can any player in the game at this point.

To me, LeMahieu is more important than Voit because he’s the better all-around player. That’s all there is to it. LeMahieu is not making MVP money (he will be the 72nd highest paid player and the 24th highest paid infielder in baseball this year), but he has performed at that level, and it would be easier to trade for a replacement first baseman than a replacement middle infielder.

In a way, LeMahieu is the position player version of Cole. The Yankees will spend enough time crossing their fingers that Judge and Stanton stay healthy, and that Sanchez rebounds. They don’t want to sweat anything with LeMahieu. Go out, play everyday, and produce. Everyone calls him The Machine, right? Go be one of those “set it and forget it” slow cookers.

4. Aaron Judge

I expected Judge to be higher when I started this exercise! Ultimately, I think the Yankees are much better equipped to deal with an injured or underperforming outfielder than an injured or underperforming catcher or middle infielder, which knocked Judge down a few pegs.

That isn’t to say Judge is unimportant. When he’s healthy and right, he’s one of the best players in the sport, and he’s a game-changing offensive force. Is there a better 1-2 lineup punch than LeMahieu and healthy Judge? Mookie Betts and Corey Seager are right there, ditto Ronald Acuna and Freddie Freeman if the Braves commit to Freeman as the No. 2 hitter, and that’s about it. Those two drive the offense.

I can’t explain it and there’s no numbers to back this sort of thing up, but the Yankees have a different feel when Judge is in the lineup. He’s kind of a boring and humble guy, yet he brings a certain swagger and confidence to the team. When Judge is hurt, it feels like the Yankees are in survival mode. When he’s in the lineup, it feels like they’re on top of the world.

Should Judge miss time again, it would really stink, though the Yankees could plug Brett Gardner into the lineup against righties and not suffer too much. No one wants that though. With all due respect to LeMahieu, I think Judge is still the club’s best player, the one capable of carrying the team on his back for months at a time. The Yankees are a very different team without him.

5. Aroldis Chapman

Here’s a dirty little secret: you don’t need a lockdown closer to be a championship contender these days. The last four World Series winners had bullpen or closer questions all season long, yet they found a way. Hell, three of the last four and four of the last seven World Series were closed out by a starter who came out of the bullpen. It’s not easy, but you can navigate a shaky bullpen.

That said, having a lockdown closer makes life a lot easier. When you know who’s getting those final three outs (and sometimes the final 5-6 outs in the postseason), it gives the manager more options in the first eight innings, and everyone else in the bullpen falls into place. You don’t need an ace closer to win, but not having one can derail your season quickly.

The Yankees have already lost Zack Britton and Justin Wilson to injury and who knows when they’ll return, or how long it’ll take to get back to 100% effectiveness. Without them, the Yankees will lean on Chad Green, whose extreme fastball approach is prone to homer-riddled slumps, and Darren O’Day, who is 38 and has had injury problems the last few years.

Given the current state of the bullpen, Chapman being something less than reliable in the ninth inning would create a lot of problems. The Yankees and Aaron Boone are already going to be juggling things in innings 6-8, maybe even earlier than that. They don’t want to have to sweat the ninth inning too. An effective Chapman makes life easier on everyone.

Backbreaking postseason homers aside, Chapman remains an elite reliever -- did you know he struck out 22 of the 45 batters he faced last year? -- and he’s shown he can adapt with age, first by adding a slider and again by adding this new splitter. Other great closers of this era, like Craig Kimbrel and Kenley Jansen, have seen their performance slip. Not Chapman.

Had Britton and Wilson been healthy (or even just Britton), I don’t think I’d have Chapman in the top five here. I’d feel better about the bullpen depth and the team’s ability to weather the storm. Now though, Britton and Wilson will be non-factors for who knows how long. Chapman having a poor year (or even a poor start to the year) would send the bullpen into panic mode.

Don’t sleep on: Jordan Montgomery

I mean it. Don’t sleep on him. It’s probably really uncomfortable. In all seriousness, Montgomery is probably the second best bet for innings behind Cole at this point, and that’s pretty important. The Yankees are going to have to navigate workloads and injury concerns three times each turn through the rotation. Having to do it a fourth day would be a nightmare.

Montgomery is far enough removed from Tommy John surgery that he doesn’t need to be handled with kid gloves (that doesn’t mean the Yankees will run him into the ground, of course), and having another starter you can count on for six-ish innings every five days eases the burden on the bullpen, and on the other starters as well. Montgomery is 28 and three years away from free agency. It’s time to make the jump from interesting youngster to rotation pillar.

4. Rapid fire thoughts. According to Eric Longenhagen, the Yankees are among the teams opening Double-A/Single-A Spring Training and the alternate site to scouts. I think (but am not 100% certain) that if you don’t allow scouts, you can’t scout anyone else. The Yankees opted out of the alternate site data and video sharing program last year because their information was better than many other teams (some were in parks without Trackman), and they didn’t want to give away the store. Now they’re free to scout everyone and everyone can scout them, which will help come trade deadline time … As expected, righty Garrett Whitlock has made the Red Sox's Opening Day roster, reports Pete Abraham. Boston took Whitlock from the Yankees in the Rule 5 Draft. The 24-year-old has not pitched in an official game since July 2019 because of Tommy John surgery, but he's had a good spring (9 IP, 8 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 12 K), and if you can name three Red Sox relievers other than Matt Barnes and Adam Ottavino, you're doing better than me ... MLB is cracking down on foreign substances. They were planning to do it last season, but the pandemic got in the way. Here’s everything you need to know. Long story short, MLB will use Statcast to track spin rates and test balls for foreign substances, and they can discipline players even after the fact. I’m curious to see how this goes. Foreign substances are explicitly against the rules, but MLB left enforcement up to the teams for decades, and no one calls anyone on it because everyone is doing it. Now MLB is taking over. Hmmm. MLB is pretty good at unintended consequences and I can see this creating headaches … You think the Yankees have had it bad with injuries this spring? The Blue Jays, who will be in the Bronx on Opening Day, got slammed earlier this week. A recap of their injuries:

• Cavan Biggio jammed his pinky receiving a throw.
• Robbie Ray fell down the stairs carrying his kid and bruised his pitching elbow.
• George Springer has a Grade II oblique strain.
• Kirby Yates had his second career Tommy John surgery.

That’s in addition to top prospect Nate Pearson straining and then reaggravating his groin, and bullpen hopefuls Thomas Hatch (elbow) and Patrick Murphy (shoulder) going down earlier in camp. Biggio is day-to-day and my guess is we’ll see him in the lineup on Opening Day. Yates is obviously done for the year, and while the Blue Jays are hopeful Ray and Springer can avoid the injured list, I’m not sure it’s likely. Grade II oblique strains don’t heal overnight. Toronto is really good and they’re going to be a headache all year, though I’m not sure they have the depth to overcome injuries the way the Yankees have the last few years … The Yankees announced 21 games will be available to stream in-market on Amazon Prime Video this season. This is another thing that was supposed to happen last year, but didn’t because of the pandemic. All 21 games are WPIX games and will still be broadcast on WPIX. Now you’ll have another option to watch those games. Between this and the YES Network recently launching its own app with streaming capabilities, we have more ways to watch the Yankees, and that’s a good thing. The best way to grow the game is to make it more accessible. Now get rid of those pesky blackouts, MLB … Last but certainly not least, former Yankees infielder Dr. Bobby Brown passed away earlier this week. He was 96 and the last living member of the 1947 World Series championship team. “Few people who have worn the pinstripes have lived such an accomplished, fulfilled, and wide-ranging life as Dr. Brown, who was beloved by our organization for his warmth, kindness and character,” Hal Steinbrenner said in a statement. Dr. Brown was a regular at Old Timers’ Day and I’ll remember his adorably hiked up pants:

Dr. Brown lived a truly remarkable life. He played eight seasons in the big leagues from 1946-54, all with the Yankees, winning four World Series rings. He also served in the Korean War (1953), worked as a cardiologist (1955-74, 1976-83), was team president of the Texas Rangers (1975), and president of the American League (1984-94). Rest in peace, Dr. Brown.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Jon asks (short version): We’ve had a lot of coverage about the rotation except Jordan Montgomery. I wonder if you could tell us a little bit about him - how he's looked, how his return from injury is going, etc., because it seems as if he's doing quite well - but one could also forget he's in the starting rotation sometimes.

We haven’t seen Montgomery much this spring. He’s made three Grapefruit League starts and thrown two simulated games (including one in Phillies camp Wednesday), and two of the three starts weren’t televised. The numbers are good (10 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 7 K) and last time out Montgomery held something very close to Toronto’s A lineup hitless across five innings.

“It gives me a lot of confidence,” Montgomery told Dan Martin following that game. “That was their lineup. They have a lot of good hitters up and down it, and I felt pretty in control the whole outing. I felt comfortable throwing everything.”

Continuing with the “we haven’t seen him much” trend, one of Montgomery’s starts was in a ballpark without Statcast, so we only have data on two of his three Grapefruit League outings. Here’s the fastball velocity:

• March 7th: 91.6 mph average and 94.2 mph max
• March 17th: 92.2 mph and 94.5 mph

Right in line with last year. Same deal with his changeup, curveball, and cutter. The velocity and spin and all that is right where it needs to be. We haven’t seen Montgomery much this spring, so to some extent it’s been out of sight, out of mind. But also, no news is good news, right? Here’s something interesting Montgomery said about his mechanics last week:

“(I have) a little more faith in my arm, so I can kind of whip it through. I’m not tensing up,” Montgomery told Martin, referring to getting further away from Tommy John surgery. “It gets to a point where you’re back to normal and you just go through your delivery and throw the ball. I think I’m starting to get back there.”

Montgomery had his Tommy John surgery in June 2018 and he is just now, in Spring Training 2021, “starting to get back there.” Pretty crazy, no? It can take a while for a pitcher to feel like himself after elbow reconstruction. This will be Montgomery’s first normal season since 2017. He got hurt in 2018, came back late in 2019, then there was the pandemic in 2020. The guy finally has a chance to catch his breath and just pitch. Could be a big year for him.

Julian asks: With Hicks walking more than getting hits and LeMahieu putting the ball in play more, would the Yankees benefit if they switched and Hicks led off with LeMahieu batting third?

It’s a discussion worth having, for sure. Aaron Hicks didn’t hit for much power last year and DJ LeMahieu is a god with runners on base (155 wRC+ with men on as a Yankee), so if you think Hicks’ power is gone for good, using him to set the table and LeMahieu to drive in runs makes sense. (I’m not ready to say Hicks’ power is gone for good. Let’s see what happens in 2021.)

The logic was similar when the Yankees flipped Derek Jeter and Johnny Damon in the 1-2 spots in 2009. Both got on base plenty, but one had more power and run production potential than the other, so put that guy in position to drive in runs. The Yankees did and it worked as well as anyone could’ve hoped. Flipping Hicks and LeMahieu would be the same basic idea.

The upside is LeMahieu drives in more runs as the No. 3 hitter than Hicks because he hits for a higher average, and hits are better than walks. The downside is LeMahieu would get fewer plate appearances (the Yankees’ No. 3 spot had 33 fewer plate appearances than the No. 1 spot in 2019), and the best hitters should bat the most times. We can all agree on that, right?

Also, Hicks leading off means you’d have eight righties in a row, including through the 2-6 portion of the lineup, where the Yankees are most dangerous. I wouldn’t overthink it though. No matter where Hicks is in the lineup, the next eight hitters will be righties. Does it really matter if they’re 2-9 or the wraparound 4-5-6-7-8-9-1-2 portion of the lineup? I don’t think so.

I guess another negative is Hicks sees more pitches than LeMahieu -- Hicks has averaged 4.23 pitches per plate appearance the last four years, LeMahieu only 3.82 -- and seeing pitches is a good leadoff hitter trait. It lets everyone else see what the pitcher has that day, etc. (How true is that? How much can you tell from the dugout or the on deck circle? I’ve always wondered.)

We can run numbers on this. Using the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis Tool and 2021 ZiPS projections, here’s what we get for the two lineups:

• LeMahieu first, Hicks third: 5.68 runs per game
• Hicks first, LeMahieu third: 5.69 runs per game

No difference. This certainly isn’t the be-all, end-all, though it’s good to have some numbers. I’d argue the Lineup Tool underrates LeMahieu because the model is based on OBP and SLG, and much of LeMahieu’s value is tied up in his batting average. Walks are great, but the next runner I see score from second on a walk will be the first.

I’m a “give your best players the most at-bats” simpleton, so I say stick with LeMahieu in the leadoff spot. If Hicks regains his 2017-19 power (31 homers per 162 games) as he gets further away from Tommy John surgery, great. If not, well, then we can talk more about flipping them. For now, I stick with the status quo. LeMahieu leading off is working well.

Andrew asks: With the caveat that Spring Training stats are meaningless, are home runs a problem for Cole? 3 HR in 12 innings pitched plus he seemed to have an issue with them in 2020. It’s not a capital P problem but it’s something that’s caught my eye. Are you concerned?

I think it’s clear Gerrit Cole is a home run prone pitcher. Even in 2019, the year he was out of this world good with the Astros, he allowed 29 homers in 212.1 innings (1.23 HR/9 and 16.9% HR/FB). Last year’s home run rate was even worse (1.73 HR/9 and 18.7% HR/FB), though it was a weird short season, so I wouldn’t sweat the year-to-year increase too much.

Craig Edwards wrote about Justin Verlander’s home run problem in 2019 and it all applies to Cole as well, because they’re similar pitchers. Long story short, Verlander pitches in parts of the strike zone that tend to lead to homers (fastballs up, breaking balls over the plate, etc.), but he gets away with it more than most because his stuff is so good. Cole is the same way.

That upper-90s fastball at the top of the zone is a great swing-and-miss pitch. Miss down just a tad though, and it’s in the wheelhouse. Cole (and Verlander) are so good at limiting baserunners overall that being homer prone isn’t the end of the world. Last year 10 of the 14 home runs Cole allowed were solos, and the other four were two-run shots. You can survive that.

What happens when Cole begins to lose stuff with age? Either he makes an adjustment or he becomes more homer prone. We can worry about that when the time comes, and based on Spring Training, Cole’s stuff is as good as ever. I’m not overly concerned about the homers. I accept this is who Cole is, and I just hope he can limit them to solo homers.

Bob asks: What would you think about a Yankee reunion with Jorge Mateo? He is out of options at San Diego and would seem to be a better offensive/lesser defensive/equal or better versatility version of Tyler Wade.

It looks like Mateo is going to make the Padres. He’s hit well this spring (.333/.436/.467) and he’s played five different positions (second, short, all three outfield spots), and he has the third most plate appearances of any player in Spring Training. If nothing else, San Diego is giving him a real long look before making a decision about his place on the roster.

I should note Padres GM A.J. Preller has been after Mateo a while now. He tried to sign him as an amateur when he was the Rangers international scouting director, and he tried to trade for him several times, mostly notably when the Yankees and Padres were discussing Craig Kimbrel in 2015. Preller finally got Mateo in a minor trade with the Athletics last June.

Mateo, 25, hit .289/.330/.504 with the rocket ball in an extreme offensive environment in 119 Triple-A games in 2019. How extreme? The Las Vegas Aviators hit .298/.371/.531 as a team that year. Mateo hit .289/.330/.504 and was a below average hitter on his own team. Crazy. Here’s what Baseball America (subs. req’d) wrote about him this spring:

Mateo is one of the fastest players in baseball. He's capable of stealing a base at any time and can score on shallow balls in play that others can't. Mateo's offensive value derives almost entirely from his plus-plus grade speed. He has shown flashes of a quick, direct swing, but overall he's a bottom of the scale hitter who is tentative against velocity and doesn't recognize spin. He does have some gap power when he connects. Mateo came up as a shortstop but is better in the outfield, where he covers a lot of ground and his plus arm is less encumbered by iffy accuracy … Mateo is purely a pinch-runner and defensive replacement, but he can create runs and add value at the bottom of a roster.

That’s pretty similar to the scouting report on Wade, no? Mateo is faster, but Wade is plenty fast himself, and he’ll take a walk (career 9.2% in MLB compared to Mateo’s career 7.3% walk rate in the minors) and is a no-doubt shortstop defensively. Given the current roster, I think the Yankees need a reliable shortstop on the bench more than a shaky shortstop/good outfielder.

The Padres gave up a top 20-ish team prospect (outfielder Junior Perez) to get Mateo last year, and if the Yankees can get him for something similar now (Ryder Green?), then sure, go for it. Mateo is young and he has talent, and the Yankees could stash Wade at the alternate site and see how Mateo handles the backup infielder’s role. If it works, great. If not, bring Wade back.

Like I said though, it appears Mateo has a spot as the last guy on San Diego’s bench. And to be perfectly honest, I’m not sure we’d even consider him as a possible addition if he were, say, a former Royals prospect rather than a former Yankees prospect. For whatever reason it’s easy to dream on guys coming back to the organization and reaching their ceiling.

Andy asks: Maybe I missed it but what happened with Jacoby Ellsbury’s contract? Who won or lost out? If the Yanks lost that would have increased their payroll and what they owed for that last year, correct? Just curious!

Still no resolution as far as I know, and it’ll probably be a while until this is put to bed. The Kris Bryant service time grievance was filed during the 2015-16 offseason and was heard just last winter. The MLBPA filed a grievance in 2018 over the Athletics, Marlins, Pirates, and Rays not spending revenue sharing money, and that’s still pending.

If Ellsbury wins the grievance, he’ll be paid the $26M the Yankees withheld last season ($21M salary plus $5M buyout of his 2021 option). If the Yankees win, they don’t have to pay him. The outcome will have no impact on the luxury tax. Because they released him, Ellsbury still counted against the luxury tax payroll last year. There’s no impact in 2021 (or beyond). Only real dollars are on the line here, not luxury tax payroll space.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)