Thoughts after the Yankees acquire Jameson Taillon

Two former Pirates in the rotation is better than one. (Getty)

The Yankees have brought in another boom or bust starter. Sunday afternoon the Yankees announced they have acquired righty Jameson Taillon in a five-player trade with the Pirates. Righties Roansy Contreras and Miguel Yajure, infielder Maikol Escotto, and outfielder Canaan Smith are the four prospects going to Pittsburgh. Let’s break it all down, shall we?

1. Quick reaction. Big fan. Taillon is risky because he’s coming back from his second Tommy John surgery, but is the type of trade the Yankees have to make given their current situation and championship window. They gave up four good but not great prospects, none of whom they will miss in the short-term, for a potential impact starter who steps right into the rotation. No-brainer.

(I answered a mailbag question about Taillon back in October and the Yankees reportedly had interest in him in December, and now they’ve traded for him in January. I guess that means a long-term extension is coming in February? I wouldn’t hold my breath.)

2. Taillon’s rehab. The big question: is Taillon healthy? Yes, apparently. Or, he’s working on it. One of the two. Taillon had Tommy John surgery in May 2019 -- coincidentally, he tore his elbow ligament the same day the line drive broke Corey Kluber’s forearm -- and the Pirates were so cautious with him that last spring they told him he wouldn’t pitch in 2020 no matter what.

“I’d be lying if I said I hadn’t thought about (pitching in 2020), but they’ve shut me down pretty quickly,” Taillon told Adam Berry last March. “... The thinking here, long-term, is that we don’t want to risk shortening my offseason and cutting into my offseason rehab, therapy, throwing, all that. I’ve thought about it, but I get shut down pretty quickly every time I bring it up.”

Taillon has chronicled his rehab on social media. He threw to hitters on Sept. 10th, he started to ramp up the intensity of his offseason throwing program on Dec. 14th, and he threw his third bullpen session on Jan. 15th. Back in November, Pirates GM Ben Cherington said Taillon was on track to be ready for Spring Training and Opening Day, so it seems everything is going well.

"There's no reason he won't be ready for Opening Day," Cherington told MLB Network Radio (audio link). "He was probably champing at the bit to pitch at the end of this year. We didn't do that ... but he was facing hitters at the end of the year, you know, throwing live BPs."

Historically, the second Tommy John surgery carries more risk than the first. Chris Capuano is believed to be the all-time leader with 718 MLB innings after a second elbow reconstruction. Joakim Soria is up to 410.1 innings since his second surgery. Daniel Hudson is up to 332 innings and Nathan Eovaldi is up to 227 innings. A lot -- a LOT -- of guys don’t make it that far.

That said, teams seem less afraid of two-time Tommy John surgery guys these days. The Red Sox gave Eovaldi four years and $68M after his second elbow reconstruction. The Padres gave Mike Clevinger a two-year, $11.5M extension and announced his second Tommy John surgery in the same press release. Soria keeps getting work too. Now the Yankees traded for Taillon.

"I understand the people who have had two Tommy Johns and the history of it. There's not a huge success rate … but there's also not a ton of data," Taillon told Jason Mackey last year. "I legitimately feel healthier than I've ever felt in pro ball right now. So, what if my problem is fixed, my mechanics are way better, and now I'm actually meant to be a starter? I guess we'll see."

By all accounts Taillon’s rehab has gone well and he’s healthy, and he’ll be ready to go for the start of the season. I’d bet on the Yankees bringing him along slowly in camp and early in the regular season, but this isn’t a Luis Severino situation, where he’s still months away. Taillon is 20 months into his rehab now and so far, so good. Fingers crossed.

3. Taillon’s adjustments. In an effort to stay healthy Taillon has reworked his mechanics during his Tommy John surgery rehab. Specifically, he’s shortened up his arm action, and now has the chicken wing delivery that is becoming popular. Joe Kelly and Lucas Giolito brought it into the mainstream. Joe Musgrove, Taijuan Walker, and others have since adopted it.

It’s been a while since Taillon was last on a big league mound, so here’s the best before and after GIF I can put together. That’s 2019 on the left and 2020 on the right (GIF link):

Taillon’s arm action used to be very long in the back. He’d straighten his arm out, drop it all the way down, take the scenic route back up, then explode toward the plate. His arm action now is much shorter and quicker. Look where his arm is when his front foot lands:

“One of these throwing motions used to feel really natural (which is scary), and one currently has become really natural through lots of intentional/focused work,” Taillon wrote in November. “Crazy to take a step back and look at every once in a while!”

In the past, Taillon was still showing his number to the lefty hitter when his foot landed. His arm had to catch up with the rest of his body, basically. Now everything is more in sync. Taillon studied his mechanics and made adjustments he believes will keep him healthy.

“I got a little bit longer with my arm path (before surgery),” Taillon told Mackey in September. “But thankfully I’ve been able to recognize it, make the adjustment, and bring it back.”

In an interview with MLB Network in November (audio link), Cherington added: "He's made some actual changes in his arm patterning and his delivery. (He) really studied the way his own body and arm are moving to try and figure out 'where am I putting stress on joints that maybe I shouldn't be.'"

Beyond the potential health benefits, Taillon says the new delivery has sharpened his slider, which behaved more like a cutter in the past -- “I love the way it’s spinning. It’s more of a true slider,” he told Mackey -- and he hasn’t lost any velocity. “(My fastball is) harder in bullpens than it was before surgery. Been really pleased with that,” Taillon told Mackey.

I’ve been doing this long enough to know not every adjustment will be the big breakthrough or keep the player healthy or whatever. Most adjustments don’t lead to anything, I’d say. Let’s see what Taillon looks like when he gets to Spring Training and starts doing more than throwing in the bullpen, and how he holds up when he gets into an every five days routine.

If nothing else, it’s encouraging Taillon has the aptitude to make significant adjustments. He’s thoughtful enough and motivated enough to look at his mechanics and make changes, which isn’t always easy. Reworking an arm action is not something pitchers do lightly. Hopefully it works. Would be cool if it does. If not, it won’t be for a lack of effort.

4. How good is he, exactly? Very good! Taillon pitched at a near ace level in his last healthy season. He threw 191 innings with a 3.20 ERA (3.46 FIP) in 2018, albeit with middling strikeout (22.8%), walk (5.9%), and ground ball (46.2%) rates. Baseball Prospectus’ Deserved Runs Average stat says Taillon was 24% better than average once adjusted for opponent quality.

In 466 career big league innings the 29-year-old Taillon owns a 3.67 ERA (3.55 FIP). Here are the underlying numbers on Taillon’s 2018 season. They good:

Of course, that was three years and one major elbow surgery ago, and who knows what Taillon will look like come 2021? All indications are his stuff has returned post-elbow surgery. Still, until you see him on a big league mound and against hitters trying to do damage, we just don’t know.

Taillon worked with two mid-90s fastballs (four-seamer and sinker), an upper-80s slider, and a low-80s curveball prior to his most recent Tommy John surgery. He’d also throw the occasional low-80s changeup. Here’s a very fun curveball and slider montage. You can see what Taillon was referring to when he said his slider was cutter-ish.

Under former pitching coach Ray Searage, the Pirates employed a very old school “pound the bottom of the zone” approach that worked for some (A.J. Burnett, Francisco Liriano, etc.) but not so much for others (Gerrit Cole, Charlie Morton, etc.). Searage was let go last offseason, and new pitching coach Oscar Marin is a new school guy who leans on analytics.

Marin helped Musgrove adopt a north-south pitching style and the result was a career high (by frickin’ far) 33.1% strikeout rate. Taillon had success with the “pitch down in the zone” approach but his arsenal suggests he could benefit from a north-south approach. Specifically, more elevated four-seamers, fewer sinkers, and more breaking balls in general.

Here’s where Taillon got his swings and misses with his fastballs from 2017-19. The four-seam fastball is on the left and the sinker is on the right (full size image):

Lots and lots of whiffs on elevated four-seamers but not so many on sinkers at the knees, and yet the organizational philosophy was pitch down at the knees. Taillon had above-average velocity and spin on his four-seamer prior to his injury in 2019, though it was not being used in the most effective way. I reckon the Yankees have some adjustments in mind for Taillon.

To be fair, Marin and the Pirates may have been planning to turn Taillon into an elevated fastball guy as well. Marin just never got to work with him outside a rehab setting. The Taillon we last saw in 2018 (and briefly in 2019) was really good. Sinkers at the knees worked. There may still be another level in there though, and I have no doubt the Yankees will try to unlock it.

“A guy who’s really good down in the zone will get a lot of ground balls and have good pitch efficiency,” Taillon told Rob Biertempfel (subs. req’d) in 2018. “If you have a big fastball and it plays up in the zone, that’s when the sexy swing and misses come.”

5. The risky rotation. At the end of last season, it was easy to look at the rotation and conclude the Yankees needed a reliable innings eater or two. I know I felt that way. The rotation was Cole, who is awesome, and a bunch of question marks. Surely a team with World Series aspirations wouldn’t go into next season with so much uncertainty, right?

Wrong. The Yankees doubled down on rotation risk with Taillon and Kluber, two pitchers coming back from major arm injuries. They also doubled down on upside. Kluber and Taillon were outstanding the last time they were healthy. Not good or even above-average. They were excellent. Front line starters on contending teams. That’s the upside.

After the last few years it is in no way unreasonable to be skeptical about the Yankees’ ability to keep players healthy. They very obviously do not see it that way, however. They targeted Kluber because strength and conditioning guru Eric Cressey oversaw his rehab and vouched for him. They had more information on his rehab than any other team and were comfortable with him.

With Taillon, the Yankees leaned on Cole, who calls Taillon his “best friend” and lived with him when they were in the minors. The Yankees don’t employ the person who oversaw Taillon’s rehab, but they have the next best thing. Cole likely knew more about Taillon’s rehab as any person outside the Pirates organization, so the Yankees consulted him.

“I told them, if you are going to bet on somebody, if you are going to go to battle with someone, that Jameson is the guy you want next to you,” Cole told Joel Sherman. “He is not fazed. He always makes people around him better. He is one of the most resilient people I have ever known … He will put himself in a good position to adapt to all things because he is a pro.”

Teams consult with their players about possible transactions all the time (how will your former teammate fit into the clubhouse, etc.) and these things always make me nervous because you don’t know whether the player is being honest and objective, or simply talking up his buddy. How I feel is irrelevant. Cole is the franchise pitcher. If he vouches for someone, that’s good enough for the Yankees.

What we do know is Taillon is resilient. He’s a cancer survivor and he’s wrapping up his second Tommy John surgery rehab in less than a decade. You don’t do that unless you’re determined and tough-minded. Former teammates like Musgrove and David Freese have chimed in and praised Taillon as a person since the trade. By all accounts he’s a good dude and a hard worker.

Being a good guy doesn’t keep you on the field though, and the fact of the matter is the Yankees are going to rely on a rotation that could fall apart physically in a weekend. Consider:

1. RHP Gerrit Cole (amazing)
2. RHP Luis Severino (rehabbing from Tommy John surgery)
3. RHP Corey Kluber (rehabbing from a Grade II shoulder strain)
4. RHP Jameson Taillon (rehabbing from his second Tommy John surgery)
5. LHP Jordan Montgomery (has thrown 48 innings since Tommy John surgery)
6. RHP Domingo German (did not pitch in 2020 because of suspension)

Eh. Ehhhh. I like that Deivi Garcia and Clarke Schmidt have been bumped out of the Opening Day rotation -- that allows the Yankees to better control their workloads in Triple-A early in the season, and I’d rather the kids be Plan B than Plan A -- and Jhoulys Chacin is about as good as it gets when it comes to veteran starters on minor league contracts. Still, that’s a lot of questionable arms.

The Yankees could have played it safe with Masahiro Tanaka, who is a steady source of innings and a known commodity in New York, and no one would’ve second guessed it. They could have targeted durable (but lower upside) free agents like, say, Rick Porcello or Jose Quintana. A trade for Lance Lynn would’ve brought durability and upside, but cost a pretty penny.

Instead, the Yankees are showing faith in their training and medical people, and placing their trust in Cressey (about Kluber) and Cole (about Taillon). And you know what? It could blow up on them spectacularly. It’s possible. You know what else though? If it works, the Yankees will steamroll the AL East and possibly the rest of the American League. The upside is that good.

The Yankees have given themselves three bites at the apple. If Kluber, Severino, and Taillon are healthy and productive, they’ll be unstoppable. If two of the three are healthy, they’ll probably be the best team in the league. And if only one of three is healthy, they’ll still be formidable. The Yankees gave themselves several options. Several options who can be true difference-makers.

I would have preferred Musgrove because I think he’s a better bet to stay healthy with similar upside. I would still like the Yankees to add someone you can count on for innings. The Yankees clearly feel differently though. They’re comfortable stockpiling high-upside options and trying to keep them on the field. It’s a bold strategy, for sure, and I won’t call it wrong. They’re rolling the dice, but they're rolling the dice on the right players. Players who can be part of a championship rotation.

“Going from where the Pirates are at to Yankees, where all that matters is winning every single year, that’s really exciting,” Taillon told Biertempfel (subs. req’d) after the trade. “But it’s definitely bittersweet. I feel so connected to Pittsburgh, and I think I will be forever.”

6. Quick payroll update. When I ran the numbers last week, the Yankees had approximately $6.133M in wiggle room under the $210M luxury tax threshold. The Pirates signed Taillon, an arbitration-eligible player, to a one-year deal worth $2.25M earlier this month. Add in Taillon and subtract out the placeholder pre-arbitration-eligible player he replaces, and we’re at $4.508M in breathing room. Let’s call it $4.5M.

That’s enough to do, well, pretty much nothing. That’s more or less what the Yankees will need to set aside for in-season call-ups and the trade deadline. The Yankees reportedly want to bring back Brett Gardner and there’s only three ways it works:

• Gardner takes a discount (as in something close to the league minimum).
• The Yankees say screw it and go over the $210M luxury tax threshold.
• The Yankees trade someone to clear money (hello, Adam Ottavino).

Sherman says the Yankees have been looking to unload Ottavino’s salary and the bet here is they will find a taker (and likely attach a prospect to make it happen), clear some payroll, bring back Gardner and maybe sign a cheap reliever, and call it an offseason. Tanaka’s time as a Yankee is almost certainly over and that’s a bummer, though I understand. I don’t think the door is closed on Gardner yet.

(Taillon will make $2.25M in 2021 and remain under team control as an arbitration-eligible player in 2022. He’s a two-year pickup.)

7. Quick 40-man roster update. The Yankees now have an open 40-man roster spot. They traded two 40-man players (Contreras and Yajure) for one 40-man player (Taillon), so there you go. One open spot, and it’ll go to either Kluber or DJ LeMahieu soon. The Yankees will then have to open a 40-man roster spot for the other guy. Mike Ford seems most likely to go, but we’ll see. An Ottavino salary dump trade could change the equation.

8. The prospect package. I’m a bit surprised the Pirates traded Taillon now, after 18 months of rehab and without seeing him back on a big league mound. I thought they’d take him into the regular season and let him rebuild value rather than sell low following his second Tommy John surgery. His value was down and it shows in the package.

I understand it though. There’s no guarantee Taillon will rebuild value (or even stay healthy) and the “hold onto him and hope to get more later” thing has worked disastrously for the Pirates the last few seasons. A forearm strain sabotaged Keone Kela prior to the deadline last year and the year before the Felipe Vazquez situation played out. Move him now while you can.

Anyway, the Yankees gave up four prospects, none of whom rank among their very best prospects. Here’s where I ranked these guys on my 2020 preseason top 30 prospects list:

4. RHP Roansy Contreras
16. RHP Miguel Yajure
29. OF Canaan Smith
NR. IF Maikol Escotto (he was a not top 30 prospect)

In their midseason update, Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked Contreras, Yajure, and Smith the No. 9, 12, and 18 prospects in the system, respectively (Escotto was unranked).

I’ve started to piece together my 2021 top 30 list and I had Contreras at No. 9, Yajure at No. 15, and Smith at No. 28 (Escotto was unranked again), though that was not final. I move guys around constantly before settling on a final order a few days before publishing. That is where I had those guys though. Legitimate prospects but not among the system’s best.

The Pirates targeted very young players in the low minors in all their recent trades and they did that again here. Yajure picked up seven innings of MLB experience last year and would benefit from Triple-A time, and he’s the most MLB ready of the bunch. Contreras and Smith have never played above Low-A and Escotto never above the Dominican Summer League. They’re babies.

I’m a Contreras fan -- I dropped him from No. 4 to No. 9 (tentatively) mostly because he spent last year at home while others ranked around him were at the alternate site -- and think he can be a mid-rotation starter or better in time. “In time” are the key words there. I think he can be a mid-rotation starter but not in 2021 and probably not in 2022 either. Maybe 2023? That’s the best case scenario, probably.

Smith is a bat-only corner outfielder who was going to be on the 40-man roster bubble next offseason, and like Contreras, he was not going to help the Yankees in 2021 and likely not in 2022 either. Escotto has the highest upside of the group -- he was getting rave reviews at this time last year -- but has not played a single game on U.S. soil. He’s 18! He’s essentially a high school senior. Getting from where he is now to the big leagues is a long, long journey.

In a perfect world Yajure would’ve spent 2021 at Triple-A and continued to develop as a starting pitcher, though carving out a bullpen role was not out of the question. That was the short-term upside of this group. Yajure contributing as a reliever and nothing else for a year or two. There was no realistic scenario in which the other three players helped anytime soon.

(Yajure had a few big league innings last season but otherwise spend the year at the alternate site. Contreras, Escotto, and Smith didn't even do that, and the Yankees didn't hold a fall Instructional League, so no one saw these guys play last year. The Pirates traded for them based on pre-2020 reports, basically.)

These are four very easy prospects to trade. The emergence of Alex Vizcaino and the Luises (Gil and Medina) made Contreras and Yajure expendable. Smith’s lack of a long-term defensive home made moving him an easy decision. Escotto is super talented but also so far away from the big leagues that he’s not worth sweating. And besides, others like Kevin Alcantara, Jasson Dominguez, and Alex Vargas are just as young and offer just as much upside.

You can’t keep all your prospects. Eventually you have to consolidate talent and the Yankees did that with the Taillon trade, turning four good but not cornerstone type prospects into MLB help. MLB help in the middle of a championship window at that. These next two years are important. They will be this core’s best (last?) chance to win a title, and this trade greatly improves the Yankees’ chances of bringing home a ring in those two years.

"I told Gerrit, ‘Dude, I want to run it back with you now. I’m at a different place in my life. You’re at a different place in your life. We never got that full chance to do it together.’ We now have that chance,” Taillon told Berry.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)