January 22nd, 2021: Blue Jays, Kluber, Moore, Prospects, Mailbag

Seven years ago today the Masahiro Tanaka race came to an end and he agreed to join the Yankees. That was a happy day. It was a long pursuit -- it wasn’t clear he would even be posted earlier that offseason -- and the Yankees paid him handsomely, and it was well worth it. It’s a damn shame they couldn’t get him a World Series ring. Tanaka deserved it. Maybe in 2021. Anyway, let’s get to today’s thoughts as Tim Anderson celebrates J.A. Happ joining a division rival.

1. Blue Jays sign Springer. This is what I get for saying the Blue Jays couldn’t find anyone to take their money earlier this week. In the three days since, Toronto has added Kirby Yates (one year, $5.5M) and George Springer (six years, $150M). Springer will get all the attention and understandably so, but I love that Yates signing. He was out of this world good from 2018-19 and having bone chips removed from his elbow last August doesn’t scare me. Not nearly as much as ligament or flexor issues would. One year and $5.5M? Sign me up.

(The Blue Jays were also close to signing Michael Brantley at one point, but that fell through. He returned to the Astros instead. That was after the Springer and Yates deals, which is a pretty good indication the Blue Jays aren’t done making moves.)

The Blue Jays were not lacking offense -- they hit .244/.325/.441 (108 wRC+) as a team last season -- but there’s nothing wrong with adding to a strength, and Springer gives them an impact veteran hitter with postseason chops who can take the pressure off the kids and maybe even help them take their games to the next level. This lineup, it scares me:

1. CF George Springer
2. 2B Cavan Biggio
3. SS Bo Bichette
4. LF Lourdes Gurriel Jr.*
5. DH Teoscar Hernandez
6. 3B Vlad Guerrero Jr.
7. 1B Rowdy Tellez
8. RF Randal Grichuk
9. C Danny Jansen

* Gurriel is one of the most underrated hitters in the game. He hit .308/.348/.534 (138 wRC+) last year and is a .287/.327/.508 (121 wRC+) hitter in 830 big league plate appearances. The guy turned only 27 in October and he’s owed $13.4M total from 2021-23, with one more year of arbitration eligibility remaining after that. Really good player who deserves more attention.

The Blue Jays finished one (1) game behind the Yankees during the wacky 60-game season a year ago and they’ve now made a big addition to their lineup and potentially a big addition to their bullpen. They’re essentially the Canadian version of the Yankees, no? Dynamite offense with a questionable rotation. Consider the rotation similarities:

• Each team has an undisputed, no doubt about it ace (Gerrit Cole and Hyun-Jin Ryu).
• Both teams are counting on a veteran bat-misser to have a bounceback season (Corey Kluber and Robbie Ray).
• Both teams have a touted prospect ready to assume a larger role (Deivi Garcia and Nate Pearson), plus other youngsters on the way (Clarke Schmidt, T.J. Zeuch, etc.).
• Would it really be that surprising if the Domingo German/Jordan Montgomery duo and the Tanner Roark/Ross Stripling duo have similar seasons in 2021?

Even with a healthy Yates, the Yankees have the edge in the bullpen (based on both the eye test and the projections), though the Yankees may salary dump Adam Ottavino at some point, and Toronto has an awful lot of hard-throwing youngsters to cycle through. Guys like Thomas Hatch and Patrick Murphy could be their Chad Green and Jonathan Loaisiga.

Point is, however big the gap was between the Yankees and Blue Jays, Toronto has closed it with the Springer (and Yates) signing. I don’t think they’ve closed the gap all the way yet, but they have closed it significantly. For what it’s worth, here’s what ZiPS says about the AL East in the wake of the Springer and Yates deals:

The objective projection system thinks the gap in talent is fairly large, though that is also based on rosy projections for Kluber and Luis Severino -- would you bet the over or under on their projected 232.2 innings and +4.6 WAR combined in 2021? -- and that makes me uncomfortable. Severino could be the x-factor here. A strong comeback could be the difference in the AL East race.

The Rays replaced Charlie Morton and Blake Snell with Michael Wacha, a considerable downgrade, though I would not dismiss them. I expect a three-team race this year, and right now, the Blue Jays are the only one of those three teams to upgrade their roster in a meaningful way. The 2021 Yankees are essentially the 2020 Yankees with Kluber replacing Masahiro Tanaka. I want them to improve the roster at some point to give them the best chance to win the AL East.

2. Kluber’s workload. In Corey Kluber, the Yankees signed a pitcher who was the game’s preeminent workhorse in the not-too-distant past. His 1,091.1 innings from 2014-18 were the second most in baseball -- Kluber was 7.1 innings behind Max Scherzer despite making four fewer starts -- and those five years he ranked 4th, 6th, 8th, 6th, and 3rd in innings pitched.

Those are regular season innings only. Kluber threw another 45.1 innings in the postseason those five years, including 34.1 innings in the 2016 postseason alone. It all works out to an average of 225.1 innings per season from 2014-18. That wasn’t that long ago, and yet the thought a pitcher could throw that many innings year after year feels crazy these days.

Kluber threw that many innings because he was outstanding, first and foremost (2.85 ERA and 2.83 FIP from 2014-18). He also threw that many innings because Cleveland manager Terry Francona is a bit old school, and he pushes his starters deeper into the game than just about every other manager in baseball. Some numbers:

Innings by starting pitchers (2014-18)
1. Nationals: 5,757.2
2. Cleveland: 5,746
3. Astros: 5,633
4. Mets: 5,631
5. Giants: 5,597

Batters faced third and fourth time through the order (2014-18)
1. White Sox: 6,834
2. Cleveland: 6,685
3. Nationals: 6,614
4. Mets: 6,495
5. Red Sox: 6,426

Kinda interesting three of the top five (and six of the top nine) teams on the innings by starting pitchers list are in the National League, no? National League starters typically average fewer innings than their American League counterparts only because they get pulled for pinch-hitters in close games. Interesting.

Anyway, injuries ranging from bad luck (comebacker broke his forearm) to annoying (abdominal strain) to worrisome (Grade II shoulder strain) have ended Kluber’s reign as a workhorse these last two years. He threw one inning last season and 35.1 innings the year before, and expecting him to get back to being a 200-inning workhorse in 2021 isn’t reasonable. It’s possible he does that, sure, but I wouldn’t count on it.

My guess is the Yankees don’t even want Kluber approaching 200 innings this season. When it comes to their starters’ workloads, they are firmly anti-Francona. They didn’t allow a starter to throw 100 pitches until their 20th game in 2018 and their 16th game in 2019. Some numbers during the Aaron Boone era:

Innings by starting pitchers (2018-20)
1. Cleveland: 2,273.2
2. Astros: 2,175.1
3. Nationals: 2,154
…
22. Yankees: 1,935.1

Batters faced third and fourth time through the order (2018-20)
1. Cleveland: 2,574
2. Nationals: 2,338
3. Rockies: 2,283
…
25. Yankees: 1,687

The Yankees are very happy to get five good innings from their starters, then turn it over to the bullpen. It helps when you have a great bullpen, which the Yankees have had the last few years and should have again in 2021. They try to avoid letting their starter go through the order three times and they like to give their guys an extra day of rest whenever possible. It’s what they do.

If Kluber is healthy and effective, the Yankees will want to keep him healthy and effective as long as possible, and I doubt letting him endure a Cleveland-esque workload will be part of the plan. Remember, in addition to the injuries the last two years, this is also a soon-to-be 35-year-old pitcher. Taking your foot off the gas is normal at this age.

The Yankees (and every other team as well) figure to handle their starters very carefully early this year just because they’re building back up after a bizarre 60-game season. Once everyone settles in, I think they’ll treat Kluber as a 5-6 inning pitcher, similar to Masahiro Tanaka the last few years. That doesn’t mean he won’t throw seven innings on occasion. Just not regularly.

Kluber offers quite a bit of upside, but after the last few years, it is completely reasonable to be skeptical about the Yankees’ ability to keep him healthy. Avoiding injuries is not their strong suit. They’re going to try though. Kluber offers upside and to reach that upside (and be at his best for October) he will have to be managed carefully. Safe to say his days as a workhorse are over.

3. Free agent target: Matt Moore. The Yankees have about $6M in breathing room under the $210M luxury tax threshold and they’re said to be seeking more pitching depth (as well as a reunion with Brett Gardner). Barring a cash-clearing trade, the Yankees don’t have much money to work with, so any pitching additions will have to be bargain bin (like Jhoulys Chacin).

Among the bargain bin free agent pitchers is southpaw Matt Moore, formerly of the Rays and most recently of the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks* in Japan. The 31-year-old is a Tommy John surgery cautionary tale. He had his elbow rebuilt in April 2014 and hasn’t been the same guy since. Moore had a 3.53 ERA (3.92 FIP) in 347 MLB innings before surgery. Since the surgery, it’s 5.13 ERA (4.58 FIP) in 547.2 MLB innings.

* Fukuoka is in the middle of an insane dynasty, by the way. They’ve won the last four Japan Series, six of the last seven Japan Series, and seven of the last 10 Japan Series. Wild.

A meniscus tear limited Moore to two starts with the 2019 Tigers (10 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 9 K), then last year he wound up overseas. He had more leg issues with Fukuoka, this time a calf problem, and in 13 starts during the pandemic shortened regular season he threw 78 innings with a 2.65 ERA and 28.1% strikeouts. That’s in a league with a 19.8% average strikeout rate.

Moore threw seven no-hit innings in his Japan Series start and, based on this video, his final pitch of that outing was a 95 mph fastball. His fastball averaged 93 mph and topped out around 96 mph from 2018-19, so velocity hasn’t really been an issue, but it’s good to know it’s still in there. Here’s more video. Looks like Moore still has some semblance of the curveball that once made him a tippy top prospect.

So far this offseason only one team, the Red Sox, has shown interest in Moore, and they’re run by Chaim Bloom, who overlapped with Moore in Tampa. Probably not a good sign that the only team interested in him is the team a) run by someone who has a long history with him, and b) that isn’t making much of an effort to improve what was one of the game’s worst rotations in 2020 (Matt Andriese and Martin Perez, really?).

In recent years several struggling MLB pitchers have returned to the big leagues after rebuilding value overseas. Here are a few and the contracts they signed upon their return:

• RHP Josh Lindblom (2020): 3 years, $9.125M
• LHP Joely Rodriguez (2020): 2 years, $5.5M
• RHP Merrill Kelly (2019): 2 years, $5.5M
• RHP Pierce Johnson (2020): 2 years, $5M
• RHP Colby Lewis (2010): 2 years, $5M
• RHP Chris Martin (2018): 2 years, $4M
• RHP Rafael Dolis (2020): 1 year, $1M

The Lewis signing holds up surprisingly well all these years later. Most pitchers who return to MLB after rebuilding value overseas received multiple years in the $2M to $3M per year range. That list is heavy on relievers though. Lindblom, Kelly, and Lewis are the only starting pitchers, which may factor into the asking price.

Moore is in a slightly different situation than those pitchers, however. Those seven guys had no MLB success whatsoever before they went overseas (combined -3.3 WAR). Moore has been a successful MLB pitcher in the past, enough to earn over $30M in player contracts and accrue over seven years of service time. This isn’t your standard comeback story.

What does that mean, exactly? Impossible to know. I’m just noting Moore may have different priorities than those guys, who presumably sought the maximum possible payday given their careers up to that point. Moore may be more willing to roll the dice on a one-year deal, setting himself up for an even larger payday next winter. I dunno, just thinking out loud.

Recent history suggests Moore is in line for $2M to $3M per year. Somewhere in that range. Given their limited luxury tax payroll space -- the Yankees are $6M under the threshold but they have to put some money aside for in-season injury call-ups and whatnot -- is that the best use of available money? A pitcher who hasn’t been an effective big leaguer since he had a league average season in 2016? I feel like the Yankees would answer that question with a no.

I’m intrigued by Moore because a) bat-missing lefties are always worth a look, b) his prospect pedigree is tantalizing even though it’s been nearly a decade since he was a prospect, and c) there’s that “mystery of the unknown” element when guys return from overseas. It’s easier to talk yourself into Moore contributing than, say, Mike Foltynewicz or Derek Holland because we haven’t seen him on an MLB mound in a while, and your mind can run wild.

Would Moore even sign with the Yankees? Who knows. The rotation may be unsettled behind Gerrit Cole, but there are teams with rotations that are even more unsettled, and Moore may seek out a team that offers a greater opportunity. I wouldn’t blame him. A minor league contract would be ideal. It may not be realistic though, in which case Moore may not be an option at all.

4. Baseball America’s top 100 prospects. Earlier this week Baseball America (subs. req’d) released their annual top 100 prospects list. The Padres placed an MLB high seven players on the list, including two of the top 11, which is ridiculous seeing how they’ve swung trades for Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, and Blake Snell within the last month. Good times in San Diego.

Rays shortstop Wander Franco tops the list for the second consecutive season and is only the fourth player to claim the No. 1 spot in back-to-back years, joining Andruw Jones (1996-97), Joe Mauer (2004-05), and Bryce Harper (2011-12). I'm surprised only four players have done it. Then again, the No. 1 prospect is usually someone close to MLB who gets called up in short order.

This year’s top 100 is very position player heavy -- there are only 35 pitchers on the list, fewest ever for Baseball America -- and it skews toward older prospects who played in MLB and/or at the alternate site last year. That makes sense given the lack of information about players who spent the season at home. Go where the information takes you.

The Yankees placed three prospects on the top 100 list and they are the three prospects you expect ranked in about the range you expect. Their rankings and blurbs:

33. OF Jasson Dominguez: “Dominguez is a mystery having barely played in years. His raw tools at last sight made him one of the game’s most promising young talents.”

55. RHP Deivi Garcia: “Garcia is a pretty unconventional prospect. He doesn't blow hitters away, but he's always figured out how to miss bats.”

64. RHP Clarke Schmidt: “Schmidt is a student of the game and has reshaped his arsenal to fit the trends of the modern pitcher.”

The write-ups include 20-80 scouting scale grades for the five tools and they have Dominguez with 60 hitting, fielding, and throwing, and 70 power and speed. Goodness. Dominguez and Royals SS Bobby Witt Jr., the No. 2 pick in the 2019 draft and No. 16 on the top 100, are the only players on the list to receive at least a 60 on all five tools. Across the board 60s (i.e. above-average on the 20-80 scale) or better is incredible.

(Baseball America conveniently compiled each top 100 prospect’s average tools grade and Dominguez leads the way at 64, tied with Braves OF Cristian Pache. Witt, Padres SS C.J. Abrams, Angels OF Jo Adell, Brewers OF Garrett Mitchell, Mariners OF Julio Rodriguez, and Orioles C Adley Rutschman are the only other players with at least a 60 average tools grade.)

In a separate piece, Baseball America (subs. req’d) listed 10 prospects who just missed the top 100. There are no Yankees among the 10 just misses, but that piece also lists every player who received at least one vote on a staffer’s personal top 150 list. Among them are RHP Luis Gil, RHP Yoendrys Gomez, RHP Luis Medina, and C Austin Wells. Medina was singled out as a potential breakout prospect for next season (subs. req’d), so that’s cool.

And finally, there were two Yankees-related questions in the top 100 chat (subs. req’d). The first a generic question about Medina (“Medina has the highest upside of any of the pitchers in the Yankees' system … he could be a monster”), the second about the difficulty of ranking Dominguez given his immense talent but lack of game action. The answer:

Dominguez is the toughest player to rank. It's all potential, but barely anyone has seen him play recently. I have a hard time suggesting he has a higher ceiling than Wander Franco or Adley Rutschman, just to name two of many. Those guys have exceptional talent and have shown they can handle high-quality pitching. Dominguez is more "wait-and-see" before we can make any declarative statements.

I’ll have my annual top 30 prospects list again this year -- as always, it will be posted the Friday before pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, so look for it three weeks from today (Feb. 12th) -- and I honestly have no idea where to start after a lost minor league season. We have some data on the guys who played in MLB last year, and that’s about it.

Three middle of the top 100 prospects is exactly what I expected, and with the exception of MLB ready (or near MLB ready) arms like Garcia and Schmidt, the strength of the farm system lies at the lower levels. The development of high upside teenagers like Dominguez, Kevin Alcantara, and Alex Vargas will determine whether this is a top tier farm system next year, or something much less.

(Baseball Prospectus also released their top 101 prospects list this week. Franco is again in the No. 1 spot. As for the Yankees, Garcia is No. 17, Dominguez is No. 59, and Schmidt is No. 96. I imagine that is the highest we’ll see Deivi on a top 100 list this prospect season.)

5. Rapid fire thoughts. A player on my list of possible targets who I never got around to writing about signed earlier this week: Wade Davis. He returned to the Royals on a minor league deal that will pay him $1.25M at the MLB level with another $1.125M in incentives. Davis, 35, allowed 10 runs in 4.1 innings around a shoulder issue with the Rockies last season and was horrible during his three years in Colorado (6.49 ERA and 4.73 FIP), but I was thinking a no risk minor league contract to see whether he could bounce back away from Coors Field. Davis had a Hall of Fame caliber peak from 2014-17 and I’m always willing to give guys like that a look on a non-roster deal. Can’t blame him for going back to an organization he knows well though. Alas … And finally, the Blue Jays are in the early stages of developing a plan to play 2021 home games at their newly renovated Spring Training park in Florida, reports Marc Topkin. They had to play home games at their Triple-A park in Buffalo last year because Canada’s COVID-19 protocols require all incoming international travelers to quarantine for 14 days upon their arrival, and they wouldn’t grant MLB (or the NBA or NHL) an exemption. Playing in Buffalo again is possible but not ideal because there is expected to be a Triple-A season this year, and also because the team already has all the equipment they need at their spring complex. The problem? Florida weather is yucky during the summer months (hot, humid, rainy), so if the Blue Jays can’t return to Toronto at some point early in the season, they’ll be stuck playing home games outdoors in that weather. The Yankees will play the Blue Jays on Opening Day in New York. Their first road series against the Blue Jays is a three-gamer from April 12th to 14th. (By the way, it’s only 363 feet to right-center at Toronto’s Spring Training park. It’ll make the short porch look like the Grand Canyon.)

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Julian asks: Assuming the Yankees don't free up payroll and don't go over the luxury tax, would you have rather signed Kluber for the $11 million or signed Jon Lester for the $5 million he got from the Nationals and have more money to spend elsewhere?

Corey Kluber. I think Lester is pretty much toast. You can count on him to take the ball every five days like clockwork -- Lester made at least 31 starts every year from 2008-19, then he made 12 during the shortened 2020 season -- but he’s not an effective pitcher at this point, and what good is an innings-eater when they aren’t quality innings?

Lester, now, 37, has gone from a 3.32 ERA (4.39 FIP) in 2018 to a 4.46 ERA (4.25 FIP) in 2019 to a 5.16 ERA (5.14 FIP) in 2020, and that was in the terrible Central region. (Baseball Prospectus' Deserved Runs Average stat adjusts for opponent quality and had Lester at 20% worse than league average last year.) He doesn’t crack 90 mph all that often these days and the underlying numbers are capital-B Bad.

I would not worry about Lester in New York at all. The guy has proven time and time again he can handle pressure situations and all that. I just don’t think he’s any good at this point in his career, and I certainly wouldn’t feel comfortable with him in tiny Yankee Stadium. Lester is far more likely to give you innings than Kluber, but I think Kluber is more likely to give you a league average season, nevermind an above-average season.

Also, the difference between the two pitchers is $6M for luxury tax purposes. What is that buying you? J.A. Happ just got one year and $8M, so the answer is not much. I don’t think that extra $6M isn’t going to move the needle. I worry about Kluber’s injury history and I want the Yankees to add a more reliable starter to the rotation. I don’t think Lester was the answer in the year 2020 though. His time as a possible rotation solution has come and gone.

Dan asks: Shouldn't the upcoming expiration of the CBA factor into the Yankees decisions concerning payroll and luxury tax? Since the CBA is going to expire, and many of the benefits of going under the threshold are spread out over multiple years, is there any actual guarantee that the new CBA will preserve the benefits that the Yankees would get if they went under this year?

There are benefits to getting under the luxury tax threshold beyond resetting the tax rate. Most notably, it entitles the team to a small revenue sharing rebate, though the revenue sharing program was suspended last year because of the pandemic, and Evan Drellich (subs. req’d) says it is likely to be suspended again in 2021. The rebate may be moot.

Also, avoiding the luxury tax changes free agent compensation. Here’s what the compensation system looks like for the Yankees as a team that pays into revenue sharing (the rules are a bit different for teams that receive revenue sharing):

PAID LUXURY TAX
Sign a qualified free agent: Forfeit second and fifth highest draft pick, plus $1M in international bonus money (this happened with Gerrit Cole)
Lose a qualified free agent: Receive a compensation pick after fourth round (would have happened if DJ LeMahieu left)

DID NOT PAY LUXURY TAX
Sign a qualified free agent: Forfeit second highest draft pick and $500,000 in international bonus money
Lose a qualified free agent: Receive a compensation pick after first round (contract worth $50M or more) or after third round (contract worth less than $50M)

The new Collective Bargaining Agreement could change the free agent compensation rules on the fly. That’s what happened during the 2011-12 offseason. The Phillies rushed to sign Jonathan Papelbon in early November and gave up a first round pick. Had they waited until the new CBA was agreed to and put in place in early December, they would have kept that pick and given up a lower selection. The rules changed in the middle of the offseason. (When the current CBA was agreed to in Dec. 2016, the new free agent compensation rules took effect the following offseason. I’d bet on that happening again, but who knows?)

I think eliminating the luxury tax entirely in the next CBA is a pipe dream. Best case scenario is upping the threshold considerably. Raising it to $250M in 2022 would be ideal, but I wouldn’t get my hopes up. There is no guarantee the other benefits remain, and yes, the Yankees should factor that into their decision-making. For all they know the things they are trying to attain will no longer exist in a few months, so why plan for them?

That said, there’s a pretty good chance those other benefits will remain in some form, because most of them have been in place since the luxury tax system was implemented. Also, getting under the luxury tax threshold will save the Yankees money in 2021. That benefit is guaranteed, and I suspect that is the primary motivation. The other stuff is secondary.

John asks: Looks like the farm is very pitching heavy. Excluding guys like Florial and Estrada who have had their cup of coffee, are there prospects that could actually make an impact this year in the field?

Only 13 of my top 30 prospects and 12 of MLB.com’s top 30 prospects are pitchers, so the farm system isn’t that pitching heavy at the moment. Much of that pitching is concentrated toward the top of the prospects rankings though (Deivi Garcia, Luis Gil, Luis Medina, Clarke Schmidt, etc.), which makes it feel pitching heavy.

I don’t see a single notable position player prospect who could help the Yankees in something more than an emergency call-up situation this coming season. Estevan Florial and Oswald Peraza are on the 40-man roster, so they could be summoned out of necessity, but it’s hard for me to see either sticking in 2021. They’ve played essentially zero games above Single-A.

If Josh Breaux’s defensive improvements are real, he could become an option behind the plate, though the defensive gains would have to be enormous, and he’d need three or four catchers to get hurt to get called up (get hurt in quick succession too, otherwise the Yankees would probably make a trade). I guess the same applies to catcher Donny Sands, who’s not really a prospect at this point, but at least has some High-A experience, unlike Breaux.

The “correct” answer to this question is almost certainly first baseman Chris Gittens, who re-signed with the Yankees as a minor league free agent in November. Gittens, 26, is technically a prospect because he hasn’t exceeded the MLB rookie limits, but he’s not a prospect in that he doesn’t figure to have much of a big league future at this point.

Gittens hit .281/.393/.500 (164 wRC+) with 23 home runs en route to being named Double-A Eastern League MVP in 2019. The Yankees did not invite him to the alternate site last season though, and the fact he re-signed so quickly suggests free agency wasn’t great. Mike Ford could lose his 40-man roster spot soon, and if the Yankees lose two of Luke Voit, DJ LeMahieu, and Miguel Andujar to injury, we could see Gittens at first base.

Most of the Yankees top position player prospects -- by “top” I mean top 30 caliber -- are lower minors kids. Of the 17 position players on my top 30 list, only two have played a game above High-A: Florial and Thairo Estrada, and Florial’s lone game above High-A was his brief MLB cup of coffee during that unusual season. Sorry, I don’t see any fun position player prospects coming in 2021. At least not anyone with real staying power.

Sam asks: Would you rather have Tyler Wade or Ronald Torreyes?

Wade. Torreyes was good for a BABIP-fueled hot streak every few weeks because he makes so much contact, and that’s about it. No speed, no power, never walks, meh defense. Torreyes has 293 more plate appearances and 676 more defensive innings than Wade in the big leagues, and yet:

• Homers: Wade 6, Torreyes 4
• Walks: Wade 32, Torreyes 23
• Barrels: Wade 6, Torreyes 4
• Exit Velocity: Wade 86.2 mph, Torreyes 82.6 mph
• Infield DRS: Wade +2, Torreyes -9 (Wade has been horrible in limited outfield time)

It comes down to the defense for me. I don’t expect either player to hit much -- for all his BABIPing, Torreyes hit .281/.308/.374 (82 wRC+) in pinstripes -- but I know Wade is going to play above average defense, plus you can leverage his speed in pinch-running situations. I like players with a clear carrying tool(s) and Wade has one in his glove. Torreyes doesn’t.

Torreyes is fun and likeable and easy to root for, and he did what the Yankees needed as the utility infielder from 2017-18. He lost his place in the organization when Gleyber Torres was called up -- the Yankees kept Neil Walker over Torreyes when Torres was called up -- and he’s spent most of the last two years in Triple-A (or at the alternate site) with two non-postseason teams (2019 Cubs and 2020 Phillies).

General rule of thumb: don’t get too attached to bench players. Success as a bench guy is fleeting. If he’s not good enough to force his way into a starting role, someone usually comes along and takes his job. It is the way of the baseball world, and chances are someone will come along and take Wade’s job soon. The circle of bench player life.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)