January 19th, 2021: Musgrove, Castillo, Tanaka, Gardner, Kluber, Arbitration Signings, Payroll, Ottavino

Pitchers and catchers are due to report to Tampa for Spring Training four weeks from yesterday. We’re inside a month, people. Hopefully the pandemic cooperates and MLB and the MLBPA put their differences aside and begin Spring Training and the regular season on time. Here’s what I wrote about the Corey Kluber and DJ LeMahieu signings, and here are today’s thoughts.

1. Hot stove rumblings. The Corey Kluber and DJ LeMahieu signings are not yet official (I have no idea when that will happen) and whenever they do become official, the Yankees will have to make two 40-man roster moves. One way or another, more moves are coming. Here’s the latest Yankees-related hot stove chatter.

Padres acquire Musgrove in three-team trade

Another one of my favorite trade targets is heading elsewhere. Last night the Padres acquired San Diego native Joe Musgrove, a key piece of my Offseason Plan, in a three-team trade with the Pirates and Mets. It’s a seven-player trade with the Padres getting Musgrove, the Mets getting Joey Lucchesi, and the Pirates getting five prospects.

San Diego added Yu Darvish and Blake Snell last month, and adding Musgrove leads me to believe Dinelson Lamet’s elbow is about to explode. He has a long injury history and a biceps issue ended his 2020 season early. Mike Clevinger had a similar biceps injury turn into Tommy John surgery recently, which I guess is the worry with Lamet.

Anyway, the three-team aspect complicates things, but the Pirates received five players for Musgrove, and here are their Yankees equivalents:

• RHP David Bednar: Brooks Kriske (I once mentioned Bednar as a trade target)
• LHP Omar Cruz: Yoendrys Gomez, but left-handed
• OF Hudson Head: Kevin Alcantara
• RHP Drake Fellows: Jake Agnos, but right-handed (Agnos was a Not Top 30 Prospect)
• C/OF Endy Rodriguez: Everson Pereira, but toying with catcher

Obviously it’s not as simple as “these guys are like those guys and the Yankees should’ve made that trade,” but yeah, I’d have done that in a heartbeat. Once again the Pirates took a package built around very young low minors prospects, and that is exactly the kind of trade the Yankees should make given their window of contention. Trade teenagers for MLB help all day, every day.

Musgrove is owed $4.45M next season and would’ve fit nicely under the $210M luxury tax threshold. Barring a surprise, the five best starting pitchers who could be traded this offseason have been traded (Darvish, Musgrove, Snell, Carlos Carrasco, Lance Lynn), so I’m not sure where the Yankees can turn to add quality innings to the rotation without spending real money on a free agent.

(The Padres traded for Darvish, Musgrove, and Snell and still have seven players on Baseball America's 2021 top 100 prospects list, the most of any team. It is insane they added three very good pitchers without gutting the top of their farm system. I am jealous of the Padres. THE PADRES.)

Yankees asked about Castillo, trade not likely

It was a busy weekend on the Luis Castillo trade rumor circuit. First, Jim Bowden (audio link) reported the Yankees have asked the Reds about their ace right-hander, though the talks were earlier this offseason. “I understand there hasn’t been recent talks, but they’ve been involved in talks with the Reds regarding him,” Bowden said.

Soon thereafter reports from the Dominican Republic said a trade had been agreed to, with Clint Frazier and Miguel Andujar the primary pieces going to Cincinnati. Jeff Passan quickly shot that down. So did Reds president of baseball operations Nick Krall. The fake trade rumor spread and forced Krall to release a statement. From Mark Sheldon:

“[The rumors] are completely false,” Krall texted. “We intend to have [Castillo] as a member of our rotation for 2021.”

And finally, Jon Heyman backed up Bowden’s report and said yes, the Yankees have talked to the Reds about Castillo, but Cincinnati asked for Gleyber Torres, and that was that. Asking for Torres is not unreasonable! Three years of an ace starter for four years of an All-Star middle infielder? Not saying the Yankees should do it, but the Reds weren’t wrong to ask.

Here’s what I wrote about Castillo last month. He’s excellent, young, affordable, and under control long-term. Of course the asking price will be high. I love Frazier and Deivi Garcia, but I would absolutely put them on the table for Castillo. Castillo is essentially Deivi’s best case scenario, and it shouldn’t be too difficult to drum up a new left fielder.

Alas, it sounds like Castillo is staying put -- Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d) says the Reds are more likely to trade Sonny Gray, and there’s basically no chance the Yankees bring him back -- so this was all a bunch of rumormongering for nothing. The Yankees checked in because you always have to check in on guys like Castillo, but it doesn't sound like anything will come from it.

Yankees remain in contact with Tanaka

The Yankees are still in contact with Masahiro Tanaka, reports Heyman. Andy Martino says Tanaka is seeking a one-year deal in the $15M to $20M range, which, if he gets it, good for him. Seems a little rich to me. Tanaka has not shot down rumors that he could return to Japan next year. Unless the Yankees clear money or exceed the $210M luxury tax threshold, I’m not sure how they can make this work. Tanaka would have to take an enormous discount.

Rosenthal (subs. req’d) recently reported the Padres were “doing background work” on Tanaka, which a) presumably doesn’t matter after the Musgrove trade, and b) would have been an ideal post-Yankees landing spot for Tanaka. The Padres are a World Series contender and they have a few familiar faces, including pitching coach Larry Rothschild and former (current?) offseason workout buddy Yu Darvish.

There are legitimate baseball reasons to move on from Tanaka. Specifically, he lost his splitter at some point in 2019, and still hasn’t been able to get it back. That’s while being a super smart and self-aware pitcher, and working with two different pitching coaches. That Tanaka has been a league average starter the last two years (104 ERA+) without the splitter is a testament to his pitching know-how, his command, and his slider.

I want the Yankees to bring in another starter, ideally a reliable innings guy, and Tanaka is one at this point in his career. For all the concerns about The Elbow™, he averaged 30 starts a year from 2016-19, and he’s passed every “can he handle New York?” test you could throw at him. If Tanaka leaves, I’d understand, but damn would I miss him.

Yankees still want pitching depth, Gardner

Even after signing Kluber and LeMahieu, the Yankees want to add pitching depth and find a way to re-sign Brett Gardner, reports Buster Olney (subs. req’d). Olney speculates the pitching depth could be a third tier starter or a reliever. What qualifies as a third tier starter? Beats me. I’d say someone like Jhoulys Chacin, who the Yankees brought in on a minor league deal last week.

As for Gardner, I am of the belief he will be back, even if he has to take a huge discount to make it happen. He doesn’t want to leave -- “I expect to be playing next year. Hopefully it's here,” he said last year -- and he would fill the fourth outfielder’s spot well given his lefty bat and ability to play center field. Gardner had a 110 wRC+ overall and a 124 wRC+ against righties last year. I’d rather have him as the fourth outfielder than Greg Allen or Mike Tauchman, personally.

I dug into the 2021 payroll situation a little later in this post. The short version is the Yankees are about $6M short of the $210M luxury tax threshold, which ain’t much, especially since they have to put something aside for injury call-ups and whatnot. Another Chacin type on a minor league deal (Matt Shoemaker?) and Gardner at a discount may be all that’s left this winter. We’ll see.

Yankees never made counteroffer for Lindor

Another nugget from Olney (subs. req’d). He confirms the Yankees did inquire about Francisco Lindor before he was traded to the Mets, but says they never made a counteroffer after hearing what Cleveland told them it would take to get a deal done. The Yankees essentially checked in out of due diligence, then continued full speed ahead with LeMahieu.

I am very happy with the LeMahieu re-signing, especially since he comes with a relatively low luxury tax hit, but damn yo, not even gonna make a counteroffer for Lindor? Cleveland surely had a huge opening ask -- it’s FRANCISCO LINDOR and the opening ask is always huge -- and you’re not even gonna try to talk them down a bit? Gah. I wish the Yankees would’ve tried a little harder to find a match for Lindor. Oh well. LeMahieu’s a fine consolation prize.

Kluber took less money to join Yankees

Welcome to the “took less money to join the Yankees” club, Corey Kluber. Martino reports the Yankees did not have the biggest offer on the table, and multiple teams offered eight figures. Martino says Kluber’s decision came down wanting to be a Yankee, and his familiarity with Eric Cressey, who runs the team’s strength and condition department and also owns the facility where Kluber trains in the offseason (and held his showcase).

The Blue Jays (per Ben Nicholson-Smith), Red Sox (per Alex Speier), and Twins (per Darren Wolfson) were among the teams to either make Kluber an offer, or show serious interest in signing him following last week’s showcase. I’m sure there were others. For what it’s worth, former Yankee Richard Bleier, who also trains at Cressey’s facility, told Brendan Kuty that Kluber has looked “extremely impressive” during his workouts, so there you go.

Other players who passed up something to join (or stay with) the Yankees include Zack Britton (other teams wanted him to close), J.A. Happ (at least one team offered three guaranteed years), Chase Headley (Athletics offered more money), and Andrew Miller (Astros offered more money). You’re doing something right when guys keep taking less to join your team. Players want to play in the Bronx and Kluber’s the latest to make a concession to make it happen.

2. Arbitration signings. Friday’s arbitration filing deadline came and went with no drama for the Yankees. They signed their eight arbitration-eligible players and won’t have a hearing for the fourth straight year and 12th time in the last 13 years. Only 13 players did not sign prior to the deadline, most notably Walker Buehler, Carlos Correa, Jack Flaherty, and Shohei Ohtani.

The Yankees announced the eight signings as non-guaranteed one-year contracts, which is standard for pre-arbitration and arbitration-eligible players. Non-guaranteed just means the player can be released in Spring Training and paid only a portion of his salary (either 30 days or 45 days termination pay depending on the timing) rather than his entire salary. The last time the Yankees released a player on a non-guaranteed contract in Spring Training was Chad Gaudin in 2010.

Across the league, arbitration salaries most closely aligned with MLBTR’s Method 2 projection. I had been referencing their Method 3 projection the last few weeks, but Method 2 was closest to reality. Here’s a quick refresher on their three methods:

• Method 1: Applies model directly with actual statistics from this 60-game season.
• Method 2: Extrapolates all counting stats to would-be 162-game totals. One home run becomes 2.7 home runs.
• Method 3: For non-first-time eligibles, finds the raise they’d get in a 162-game season, then gives them 37% of that raise.

Luke Voit hit an MLB leading 22 home runs in 60 games last year. That extrapolates out to 59 homers in a 162-game season. Must’ve been nice taking that into arbitration. Anyway, here are the arbitration salaries, via the Associated Press:

Those eight players combined to make $19.9976M in full season salary last year and they’ll combine to make nearly double that this year. Voit has the largest discrepancy between his projected salary and arbitration salary, though the combined final tally more or less matches up with the projections. It’s within the model’s margin of error (for the umpteenth straight year).

Voit’s salary as a first time eligible Super Two player is significant. It is the sixth highest salary ever for a player at that service time level, regardless of position:

1. Cody Bellinger: $11.5M in 2020 (had an MVP and Rookie of the Year)
2. Kris Bryant: $10.85M in 2018 (had an MVP and Rookie of the Year)
3. Buster Posey: $8M in 2013 (had an MVP and Rookie of the Year)
4. John Axford: $5M in 2013 (had Cy Young and MVP votes, and saves pay)
5. Nolan Arenado: $5M in 2016 (MVP votes, Gold Gloves, insane counting stats)
6. Luke Voit: $4.7M in 2021 (MVP votes, home run title)

There’s a big disconnect between how arbitration pays first base only sluggers and how teams value them. They’re generally unwilling to pay for anyone who isn’t among the best of the best. Chris Carter was non-tendered after leading the league in home runs in 2016. Justin Bour, C.J. Cron, and Renato Nunez were all non-tendered after productive seasons in recent years.

Voit is currently among the best of the best. He was great last year and has been great as a Yankee overall (.279/.372/.543 and 144 wRC+). He also turns 30 next month, and he has another three years of arbitration remaining. With such a high 2021 salary, Voit will be in the non-tender crosshairs as soon as his production slips. Hopefully that doesn’t happen anytime soon.

Judge’s injuries have taken a big bite out of his earning potential. Last year’s $8.5M salary was the seventh highest ever for a first time eligible player. This year’s $10.175M salary is no better than the 16th highest for a second time eligible player, and is behind guys like Khris Davis ($10.5M), Hunter Pence ($10.4M), and Chris Davis ($10.35M). Those injuries will cost you.

As best I can tell, Gleyber’s $4M salary is the third highest ever for an infielder in his first year of eligibility as a Super Two, behind only Arenado ($5M in 2016) and Josh Donaldson ($4.3M in 2015), and ahead of Trea Turner ($3.75M in 2019). Arenado took those insane counting stats and a bunch of MVP votes into arbitration. Donaldson had MVP votes too (but not yet his MVP).

Even with his disaster 2020 season, Sanchez’s $6.35M salary is the second highest ever for a second year eligible catcher, behind only Matt Wieters ($7.7M in 2014). At $5M, Gary also had the second highest salary for a first time eligible catcher last year. He was behind Posey ($8M), who signed his extension later that year and took himself out of the arbitration process.

Green’s salary is sneaky high given his role. His $2.15M salary is among the five highest I can find for non-closer relievers in their second year of eligibility, not counting Super Twos. Good for Chad. He’s earned it. Frazier’s, Montgomery’s, and Urshela’s salaries are in line with players at their service time level rather than among the highest ever. And with that, arbitration business is complete and the Yankees (and we) can move on to other things.

3. 2021 payroll update. Arbitration salaries are in and so are the DJ LeMahieu and Corey Kluber contracts. They aren’t official yet, but they will be soon, and we have enough information now to check in on next year’s payroll situation. The Yankees all but confirmed they will stay under the $210M luxury tax threshold with LeMahieu’s contract structure, so here’s what the luxury tax payroll looks like with Spring Training about a month away.

Guaranteed Contracts ($143.467M)

• Gerrit Cole: $36M
• Giancarlo Stanton: $22M
• Aroldis Chapman: $17.467M
• DJ LeMahieu: $15M
• Zack Britton: $13M
• Corey Kluber: $11M
• Luis Severino: $10M
• Aaron Hicks: $10M
• Adam Ottavino: $9M

The Yankees have nine guaranteed contracts but only eight of those players will be on the Opening Day roster. Severino is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and is expected back at midseason. He still counts against the luxury tax payroll, of course, but he won’t play for a while and someone needs to take his place on the roster, and that player will also count against the luxury tax payroll. Bit of a double whammy there. 68.3% of the $210M payroll is going to 30.8% of the 26-man roster.

Arbitration-Eligibles ($37.9M)

Earlier in this post we covered the eight players the Yankees signed prior to last week’s filing deadline, so we don’t need to spend too much time here. Those eight players combine for $36.255M next year. Add in the pre-tender deals for Luis Cessa ($1.05M) and Ben Heller ($625,000) and we’re at $37.9M for 10 arbitration-eligible players. All together, we’re up to $181.367M for 19 players but only 18 roster spots because of Severino. Onward.

Miscellaneous (estimated $22.5M)

• Dead money: None!
• Pre-arbitration-eligibles (8 players to fill out 26-man roster): $5M (estimated)
• Rest of 40-man roster (14 players): $2M (estimated)
• Benefits: $15.5M (estimated)

First time in a long time the Yankees aren’t paying someone to play elsewhere or sit at home. More accurately, it’s the first time in a long time the Yankees don’t have a charge against the luxury tax for a player who is playing elsewhere or sitting at home. They didn’t actually pay Jacoby Ellsbury last season, but his $21.86M luxury tax hit was still on the books.

Assuming a normal 26-man roster rather than an expanded 28-man roster, the Yankees will need eight pre-arbitration-eligible players to fill out the roster around the guys with guaranteed contracts and arbitration-eligibles. The identities of those eight pre-arbitration-eligible players are irrelevant for our purposes. They’ll all make something close to the league minimum and we’re only worried about their luxury tax hit. How much is more important than who.

Every team contributes an equal amount to the player benefits package (why it counts against the luxury tax, I will never understand), so add it all up, and the Yankees are at $203.867M for the entire roster. That leaves $6.133M in wiggle room. In 2018, the year I obsessively tracked the luxury tax payroll, the Yankees spent $2.3M on injury call-ups, so keep that in mind. That $6.133M in wiggle room really isn’t $6.133M. The $203.867M covers this roster (asterisk means the player is out of minor league options and must pass through waivers to go to Triple-A):

The pre-arbitration-eligibles are interchangeable. Could be Estrada over Wade on the bench, or King over Garcia in the rotation, whatever. They’re all going to make something close to the league minimum and that’s all that matters for this exercise. Also, the LeMahieu and Kluber signings are not yet official, so I have 42 40-man roster players listed. Moves are coming.

Anyway, the roster looks a heck of a lot better than it did three weeks. There’s still room for improvement though. As much as I love Deivi, I’d like to bump him down to No. 6 on the rotation depth chart, allowing him to start the season in Triple-A and carefully build up his innings in games that don’t matter. Hard to build him up in competitive big league games, you know?

If the Yankees are going to do anything (add a starter, add a reliever, re-sign Brett Gardner, etc.) between now and Opening Day, it’ll be something cheap. That $6.133M isn’t much at all. If the Yankees are going to make a trade to clear salary, Ottavino is an obvious candidate to go, and the Yankees would likely have to attach a sweetener (i.e. a prospect) to make it happen.

Maybe the Yankees are laying in the weeds and secretly willing to exceed the $210M luxury tax threshold, or maybe they’ll shift gears and decide to go over the threshold because many quality free agents are available and there are bargains to be had. Would be cool. I’m not counting on it though. With LeMahieu and Kluber signed, and all the arbitration cases settled, the Yankees have a touch more than $6M to spend under the $210M threshold. Not much. Not at all.

4. Potential Ottavino trade partners. As noted, the Yankees have a little more than $6M in breathing room under the $210M luxury tax threshold, and it’s really less than that when you factor in the money they have to set aside for in-season call-ups. Unless ownership does a 180 and approves a higher payroll, the Yankees are pretty close to tapped out.

The options to clear payroll are limited. Trading Gary Sanchez or Luke Voit would clear some money but not a ton, and doing that would only create another hole on the roster. Ditto trading Aaron Hicks. The most obvious trade candidate is Adam Ottavino, a reliever who will count as $9M against the luxury tax next year. He’d be easier to replace than Hicks, Sanchez, or Voit.

The disaster outing in Buffalo on Sept. 7th* really skewed Ottavino’s surface numbers last season …

• 2020 overall: 5.89 ERA (3.52 FIP) in 18.1 innings
• 2020 without Buffalo disaster: 2.95 ERA (2.32 FIP) in the same 18.1 innings

… though his strikeout (31.3% to 29.4%), swing-and-miss (11.2% to 9.1%), and exit velocity (85.3 mph to 90.6 mph) rates all took steps back from 2019 to 2020. Small sample and all that, yeah, but it happened, like the disaster in Buffalo, and it all counts.

* Ottavino and Chad Green threw 58 pitches combined during that 10-run inning and got just one swing and miss. That is … unusual. Methinks the Blue Jays had their signs, either legally or illegally. Ottavino and Green miss way too many bats in general to get just one whiff on 58 total pitches. Whatever.

Also, Aaron Boone clearly did not trust Ottavino in the postseason. He appeared in just one postseason game (three batters faced) despite the lack of off-days. Even Nick Nelson managed to get into two postseason games. A year ago Ottavino was a bullpen force. Now we’re talking about salary dumping him because he had 18.1 bad regular season innings and the manager doesn’t trust him. Relievers, man.

Ottavino carries a $9M luxury tax hit but he’s still owed $11M in real dollars. He has an $8M salary in 2021 and will receive a $3M signing bonus payment on Jan. 1st, 2022. Even if the Yankees attached a sweeter to Ottavino to facilitate a trade, they may have to eat some money to make it all work, which will impact exactly how much luxury tax hit they shed. It’s complicated and annoying. We’ll worry about the math if a trade happens.

I don’t love the idea of salary dumping Ottavino -- as bad as he was last season, he was even worse over a longer period of time in 2017, and he self-corrected that offseason -- but unless the Yankees are willing to exceed the luxury tax threshold, trading him is the easiest way to open up payroll. I know the Yankees have been exploring an Ottavino trade this offseason, though my sense is it was typical “we listen on everyone” stuff. Maybe it’ll pick up now.

Which teams could have interest in an Ottavino-plus-sweeter trade? Payrolls are coming down around the league and, even with several top relievers signing in recent days (Archie Bradley, Liam Hendriks, Blake Treinen, etc.), finding a team willing to take on that money won’t be easy. The sweetener may have to be pretty sweet. The sweetener also means we’re not necessarily limited to contenders. Here are a few teams that stand out as potential Ottavino suitors.

Atlanta Braves

2020 full season payroll: $158.0M
Projected 2021 payroll: $118.0M
2021 bullpen projection: +3.1 WAR (9th in MLB)

The Braves acted quickly to sign Charlie Morton and Drew Smyly early this offseason, and they’ve been quiet since. They shed several significant salary commitments after the season (Cole Hamels, Mark Melancon, Marcell Ozuna, etc.), hence all the payroll space, though they still need an outfielder and possibly another reliever. In 2015, they ate the $10M remaining on Bronson Arroyo’s contract to get Touki Toussaint, so they’ve done the “eat money to get a prospect” thing before. Melancon, Shane Greene, and Darren O’Day are all free agents, so there’s room in the bullpen for Ottavino. Atlanta is a real possibility.

Chicago Cubs

2020 full season payroll: $189.7M
Projected 2021 payroll: $133.2M
2021 bullpen projection: +1.2 WAR (24th in MLB)

Owner Tom Ricketts has made it clear payroll will come down this season. The Yu Darvish salary dump and Kyle Schwarber non-tender, and ongoing Kris Bryant and Willson Contreras trade rumors, confirm that. The Cubs can definitely use another reliever. I’m just not sold on them taking on a $9M reliever, no matter how sweet the sweetener.

Chicago White Sox

2020 full season payroll: $128.2M
Projected 2021 payroll: $125.7M
2021 bullpen projection: +4.1 WAR (2nd in MLB)

For all their headline-grabbing activity, the White Sox have remained payroll neutral because Lance Lynn’s contract is so cheap and because they shed pricey commitments to Alex Colome, Edwin Encarnacion, and Kelvin Herrera after the season. Their bullpen is stacked as things stand, and they don’t need an Ottavino. Of course, there’s no such thing as too much pitching, and getting a prospect out of the deal is appealing. I have them as a maybe. The White Sox are making an effort to improve this offseason, though owner Jerry Reinsdorf is a well-established payroll hawk and I’m not sold on them taking on more dollars.

Los Angeles Angels

2020 full season payroll: $184.0M
Projected 2021 payroll: $165.4M
2021 bullpen projection: +2.9 WAR (10th in MLB)

At some point the Angels are going to do something to address their rotation, right? New GM Perry Minasian recently told Jeff Fletcher he intends to upgrade the rotation, and while Angels fans are probably dreaming about hometown guy Trevor Bauer, I’m expecting them to sign, like, J.A. Happ and Chris Archer, because that’s how the Halos have built their team around Mike Trout the last decade. Anyway, the Angels already added one reliever in a salary dump this offseason when they took on Raisel Iglesias and his $9.125M salary. Would they do it again with Ottavino? What if he comes with, say, Mike King to give them another MLB rotation option? I think Minasian has already taken his salary dump reliever shot with Iglesias. I consider them a maybe and nothing more.

Los Angeles Dodgers

2020 full season payroll: $222.1M
Projected 2021 payroll: $203.4M
2021 bullpen projection: +3.4 WAR (6th in MLB)

There are rumblings the Dodgers want to duck under the $210M luxury tax threshold next year, so they don’t have much money to spend (their projected luxury tax payroll is $204.4M, the $203.4M above is real dollars payroll). Los Angeles has re-signed Treinen and signed Tommy Kahnle with an eye toward 2022, which leads me to believe they’re done with their bullpen. They still need to re-sign or replace Justin Turner at third base and possibly Joc Pederson in the outfield, so they will focus their dollars there. I don’t think there’s a match here.

New York Mets

2020 full season payroll: $181.9M
Projected 2021 payroll: $180.4M
2021 bullpen projection: +3.6 WAR (4th in MLB)

The Yankees salary dumping a good player on the Mets -- the Mets! -- would be high comedy. The Mets are said to be in the mix for Brad Hand, so they’re still looking to add to their bullpen, and if that falls through, maybe they’d have interest in Ottavino. The Yankees and Mets have come close on a few trades in recent years (Jay Bruce and Neil Walker in 2017, Zack Wheeler in 2019) only to have something (usually the Wilpons) derail it at the last moment. Could they actually complete a trade now that Steve Cohen’s in charge? Possibly. I gotta say though, I’ll need to see the Yankees salary dump a player on the Mets to believe it. That just seems like a thing that won’t happen at this point in time.

Oakland Athletics

2020 full season payroll: $95.5M
Projected 2021 payroll: $73.4M
2021 bullpen projection: +1.3 WAR (23rd in MLB)

A long shot. The A’s are said to be slashing payroll -- they’ve done nothing but make two Rule 5 Draft picks this offseason -- and they’ve been fully phased out of the revenue sharing program, so they can’t count on that money in the future. I mention them here for two reasons. One, they’re going to lose half their bullpen to free agency (Hendriks, T.J. McFarland, Yusmeiro Petit, Joakim Soria), and two, they have a recent history of acquiring expensive relievers with one year remaining on their contracts (Tyler Clippard, Jim Johnson, etc.). A long shot but still a shot.

Philadelphia Phillies

2020 full season payroll: $182.4M
Projected 2021 payroll: $137.0M
2021 bullpen projection: +2.4 WAR (14th in MLB)

Philadelphia’s bullpen was historically awful in 2020. Their 7.06 ERA was the second worst bullpen ERA in baseball history, better than only the 1930 Phillies (8.01 ERA). 60-game season or not, that is terrible. The Phillies have already brought in Bradley and Jose Alvarado this winter, and Dave Dombrowski said they’re still looking for more bullpen help earlier this week. You don’t hire Dombrowski to run your baseball operations unless you’re willing to spend money or trade prospects. They surely have a big chunk of money set aside for J.T. Realmuto, but, even then, the Phillies appear to have enough payroll room to afford a pricey reliever. Between Philadelphia’s payroll situation and bullpen desperation, this might be the Yankees’ best chance to unload Ottavino without a sweetener (and maybe even get a real prospect in return).

San Diego Padres

2020 full season payroll: $151.5M
Projected 2021 payroll: $163.4M (includes last night's Joe Musgrove trade)
2021 bullpen projection: +4.0 WAR (3rd in MLB)

The Padres -- the PADRES -- upping payroll in the middle of a pandemic tells you all you need to know about owners crying poor this offseason. They think we’re all stupid. San Diego has more good relievers than roster spots, so much so that Kevin Acee says they’re not among the finalists for Kirby Yates and Trevor Rosenthal, two very good relievers they know very well. I included the Padres here because they’ve been extremely active and have an appetite to get better. I’m not sure I see a fit for Ottavino though.

San Francisco Giants

2020 full season payroll: $162.0M
Projected 2021 payroll: $142.0M
2021 bullpen projection: +1.0 WAR (27th in MLB)

They may not have been the biggest names or the sexiest moves, but the Giants have been as active as any team this offseason. They signed John Brebbia, Curt Casali, Anthony DeSclafani, Matt Wisler, and Alex Wood to Major League contracts, and also retained Kevin Gausman with the qualifying offer. The bullpen is really bad and president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi did the “eat money to get a prospect” thing when he took on Zack Cozart’s $12.2M salary to get Will Wilson last offseason. Squint your eyes and you can see the Giants in the Wild Card race this coming season, especially if there’s an expanded postseason. They strike me as a clear fit for an Ottavino salary dump.

Toronto Blue Jays

2020 full season payroll: $112.3M
Projected 2021 payroll: $81.2M (includes last night's Tyler Chatwood signing)
2021 bullpen projection: +1.7 WAR (20th in MLB)

The Blue Jays are having trouble finding people to take their money, huh? They re-signed Robbie Ray in the very first transaction of the offseason and did nothing other than be the runner-up for a bunch of guys between that and signing Chatwood last night. Reports indicate they were the runner-up for Gausman, Hendriks, Ha-Seong Kim, DJ LeMahieu, and Francisco Lindor. Ouch. Toronto has money to spend now that Chase Anderson, Ken Giles, Travis Shaw, and Matt Shoemaker are off the books, and the Happ trade shows the Yankees and Blue Jays aren’t opposed to an intradivision trade. The competitive landscape has changed since then though. The Blue Jays stunk at the 2018 trade deadline. Now they’re a direct competitor. They could use an Ottavino but I would bet against a trade given the whole AL East rival thing.

Washington Nationals

2020 full season payroll: $176.8M
Projected 2021 payroll: $169.3M (includes last night’s Jon Lester signing)
2021 bullpen projection: +2.2 WAR (15th in MLB)

Do the Nationals ever not need bullpen help? The Schwarber and Josh Bell (and Lester) pickups show Washington is going for it, as they should, and they have a clear need for another late-inning reliever. There have been rumblings the Nationals will trim payroll a bit next year, and, if true, there doesn’t appear to be enough room to bring in Ottavino. Maybe the Yankees could change their mind with a significant enough sweetener? How good a prospect do you want to give away to unload a mere $9M, really? The Nationals are an on-field fit for Ottavino. Ottavino may not be a payroll fit for the Nationals.

5. Remembering a random Yankee: Jonathan Albaladejo. By request, this week’s random Yankee is a player who came over in one of Brian Cashman’s worst trades. Here's the random Yankee archive. You can find links back to everyone we've covered there. I have a pretty long backlog of random Yankees, but keep sending in your requests and I’ll add them to the queue.

Albaladejo was drafted twice, first by the Giants out of high school (34th round in 2000) and then by the Pirates out of junior college (19th round in 2001). He went from starter to reliever and spun his wheels in Pittsburgh’s system -- Albaladejo spent two years in rookie ball and two years in High-A, and made it to Double-A for only 18 games -- before being released in April 2007.

“I went two weeks without throwing the ball. I thought I was better, so I asked for my release,” Albaladejo told George King about the end of his tenure with the Pirates. “After one week I was scared. Nobody called. I had an offer in Mexico. I was supposed to go on a Friday and Washington called on Thursday.”

The Nationals signed Albaladejo, then 24, a week later, and four months later he was in the big leagues. Albaladejo tore up Double-A and Triple-A (2.97 ERA and 56 strikeouts in 60.2 innings) and was dynamite as a Sept. call-up: 14.1 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 12 K in 14 games. The Nationals were bad and rebuilding, and it looked like they found themselves a solid young reliever.

The Yankees took notice. They sent Tyler Clippard, who allowed 19 runs in 27 innings during his MLB debut in 2007, to Washington for Albaladejo in a 1-for-1 trade during the 2007 Winter Meetings. Clippard had prospect pedigree and the rebuilding Nationals rolled the dice. Albaladejo looked like an effective reliever and the win-now Yankees wanted to bolster their bullpen.

"He's a big, strong, imposing guy. 6-foot-5," Brian Cashman told the Associated Press after the trade. "If he replicates what he did last season, then he will be an interesting character for us."

Clippard went up and down in 2008 before breaking out as a reliever in 2009, and he’s still in the big leagues. He had a 2.77 ERA with 26 strikeouts in 26 innings for the Twins last year. Cashman readily admits this is one of his worst trades, and he's said the mistake was not seeing what Clippard could do in relief before giving up on him.

“We thought that he had a pretty complicated delivery. We felt it was going to stay complicated. We had some questions there,” Cashman told Adam Kilgore about Clippard in 2011. “... I certainly didn’t see this coming. I’m happy for him. He’s a good kid.”

Albaladejo made the 2008 Opening Day roster and he was surprisingly good early that season. He allowed six runs in 13.2 innings, with four of those runs coming in a 1.2-inning outing against the Tigers on May 1st. Albaladejo threw 2.2 scoreless innings on April 4th, two scoreless innings on April 25th, and 2.1 scoreless innings on May 9th. He was a serviceable low-leverage arm.

An elbow sprain effectively ended Albaladejo’s season in mid-May. He avoided surgery and made a handful of minor league rehab appearances late in the year, but he didn’t make it back to the big leagues. The Yankees missed the postseason for the first time since 1993 that year. September would’ve been a good time to see what Albaladejo could do. Alas.

“It's more than two weeks, but we don't think it's a real extended period,” then-manager Joe Girardi told Kat O’Brien after Albaladejo got hurt. (Look at that. The Yankees have been doing the “minor injury becomes a major injury” thing since 2008.)

Albaladejo again made the Opening Day roster in 2009 and he holds the distinction of being the first reliever the World Series champion Yankees used that season. He came out of the bullpen to replace CC Sabathia on Opening Day. Albaladejo pitched in the second game of the season as well, so he was also the first pitcher to appear in two games for the 2009 Yankees. That’s … something?

Early on that year Albaladejo was essentially Chien-Ming Wang’s caddy. Wang was terrible (46 runs in 42 innings) and hurt that year, and whenever he was bounced from a start early, Albaladejo was often brought in to chew up innings. He pitched nine times in 21 team games in April, and allowed 10 runs in 11 innings. Opponents hit .314/.383/.634 against him. Ouch.

After pitching nine times in the first 21 team games, Albaladejo appeared in only 13 of the next 78 team games as the last guy in the bullpen (with a brief Triple-A stint mixed in). He allowed an earned run in only two of those 13 games, and at one point he struck out 12 batters in an 11.2-inning span. Not bad for a guy who struck out five batters in his previous 14 innings.

Albaladejo lost his bullpen spot for good in mid-July, when the Yankees gave Mark Melancon a look. He spent most of the rest of the season in Triple-A (eight runs in 37 innings), returned as a Sept. call-up, then was left off the postseason roster. In 34.1 innings with the big league team in 2009, Albaladejo allowed 23 runs and a .306/.382/.522 opponent’s batting line. That was good enough to get him a World Series ring.

While Clippard was establishing himself as an All-Star reliever in Washington, the Yankees determined Albaladejo was not part of their future. He reinvented himself as a four-seam fastball guy in 2010 and was dynamite in Triple-A -- Albaladejo had a 1.42 ERA with 82 strikeouts in 63.1 innings, and set a new International League record with 43 saves -- yet only appeared in 10 games with the big league team (eight in mop-up duty as a Sept. call-up).

“I’m telling you, I was more excited here than for my first game in the big leagues,” Albaladejo told Tim Bontemps about closing out the 2010 Triple-A All-Star Game. “It was a save situation, an All-Star Game. In my first big league game, I came in the fourth inning, and I don’t even remember what the score was. It was pretty special.”

Three years after the trade Albaladejo had a 4.70 ERA (5.21 FIP) in 59.1 innings as a Yankee. It added up to -0.3 WAR (Clippard put up +3.1 WAR those three years despite spending 2008 almost entirely in the minors). 220 pitchers have thrown at least 50 innings as a Yankee, and only seven have a lower average Leverage Index than Albaladejo, meaning he rarely pitched in important situations.

1. Randy Choate, 2000-03: 0.44 average Leverage Index
2. Jimmy Jones, 1989-90: 0.46
3. Mark Hutton, 1993-96: 0.50
4. Sergio Mitre, 2009-10: 0.51
5. Bryan Mitchell, 2014-17: 0.54
6. Sean Henn, 2005-07: 0.58
7. Joe Ausanio, 1994-95: 0.60
8. Jonathan Albaladejo, 2008-10: 0.62 (tied with Chris Capuano and David Hale)

Albaladejo was 28 years with limited MLB success when the 2010 season ended. He was at a career crossroads. The Yankees were ready to move on and give the 40-man roster spot to someone else, so they worked out an agreement to send him to the Yomiuri Giants in Japan. Yomiuri gave Albaladejo a one-year contract worth $950,000.

“The Yankees recommended him to us,” Giants representative Hidetoshi Kiyotake told the Kyodo News at the time. “ … We envision him as a reliever, but he could start. His role will all depend on the situation of the team.”

Albaladejo was very good with Yomiuri in 2011, throwing 51.1 innings with a 2.45 ERA and 44 strikeouts. He parlayed his success into a one-year contract with the Diamondbacks and made it back to the big leagues in 2012, but only briefly. He allowed three runs in three innings with Arizona and spent most of the season in Triple-A.

Those three appearances with the 2012 D’Backs were Albaladejo’s last games as a big leaguer. From there, he bounced to the Marlins in 2013 to the Mexican League from 2014-16 to the Mets in 2017 to independent ball from 2018-19. At age 36, Albaladejo had a 4.77 ERA in 19 starts and 109.1 innings as a player/coach with the independent Lancaster Barnstormers in 2019.

“Alby is a veteran who is a workhorse for us. He is a leader in the rotation as well as the clubhouse,” manager Ross Peeples said after signing Albaladejo in 2019. “Having him in the Barn is very helpful for us with his leadership, knowledge of the game, and professionalism.”

Albaladejo’s playing career came to an end last year, either because he voluntarily called it quits or because of the pandemic. He joined the independent Empire Baseball League as a pitching instructor and recruiter last August.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)