Thoughts after the Yankees sign DJ LeMahieu and Corey Kluber

Look, he already shaved. (AP)

The Yankees finally joined the offseason yesterday. In the span of 14 hours the Yankees agreed to re-sign DJ LeMahieu and sign Corey Kluber. LeMahieu received six years and $90M. Kluber gets a one-year deal worth $11M, according to Mark Feinsand, though Jack Curry says they’re still working on the structure (signing bonus? incentives?). Can’t say I expected LeMahieu to be only the second most stoic player the Yankees signed yesterday, but here we are. Let’s break it all down.

1. LeMahieu’s contract. Six years is a bit shocking. $90M? Not so much. That’s more or less what I expected LeMahieu to get, only across four years, not six. Ken Rosenthal reports LeMahieu, 32, wanted $90M, which was reasonable seeing how the then-34-year-old Josh Donaldson received $92M across four years last offseason. To get $90M from the Yankees, LeMahieu had to stretch it out across six years to lower the luxury tax hit.

Look at it this way: LeMahieu signed a four-year contract worth $90M, with two years tacked on to reduce the luxury tax hit. If LeMahieu can still contribute in years five and six, even as a utility guy, great! If not, then the Yankees have shown us with Jacoby Ellsbury and Alex Rodriguez that they will eat money to move on from aging and unproductive players (A-Rod moreso than Ellsbury given the grievance and behind-the-scenes medical stuff with Ellsbury).

I haven’t seen the contract structure anywhere but, knowing the Yankees, I’m willing to bet it’s a straight $15M per year, or something very close to it. Paying the majority of the $90M the first four years with lower salaries the last two years would be flagged as luxury tax circumvention, and MLB frowns on that. We’ll see the contract structure soon. The Yankees usually keep these things simple, so I’d bet on $15M or thereabouts in salary all six years.

There was give and take on both sides. The Yankees committed to LeMahieu deep into his 30s, which is always risky, and LeMahieu gave up the chance to test free agency one last time. Justin Turner is 36 right now. Had he signed a four-year deal and played well, LeMahieu likely had a Turner contract (whatever that ends up being) coming to him. He gave up a chance to maximize his earning potential. This figures to be the last player contract LeMahieu signs.

It sounds like no other team was close -- Jon Heyman says the Blue Jays offered four years and $76M, which was not an especially competitive offer -- and there’s definitely a “we’re paying you for what you’ve done and not what we expect you to do” element to this contract, and that’s fine. The Yankees are a win-now team and they retained an impact player. If they have to deal with a bad year or two at the end of the contract, so be it. That’s the cost of business.

The next two years are crucial. They’re the last two years of Aaron Judge’s and Gary Sanchez’s (and Chad Green’s) team control and they may be the last two years of LeMahieu’s and Gerrit Cole’s and Giancarlo Stanton’s (and Aroldis Chapman’s) prime. Anything that allows the Yankees to maximize the present is welcome, and LeMahieu does that with his performance and luxury tax friendly contract.

I see the deal as a win-win. The Yankees get a great low-maintenance player at a very friendly luxury tax number, and the compromise is signing him deeper into his 30s than they probably wanted. LeMahieu gets $90M in the middle of a pandemic and he’ll stay with a World Series contender and a first rate organization, and the compromise is passing up a shot at one last free agent deal in his mid-30s. A reunion made too much sense not to happen. It works for everyone.

2. Kluber’s contract. LeMahieu got shocking years and not-so-shocking dollars. Kluber got shocking dollars and not-so-shocking years. He was always going to sign a one-year “prove yourself” contract as a soon-to-be 35-year-old coming off two injury shortened years, but $11M? That’s a pricey reclamation project. I thought he’d get about $6M guaranteed with incentives that could push the total value to $12M or so. Instead, $11M guaranteed. Good for him.

(MLBTR and FanGraphs crowdsourcing each pegged Kluber for a one-year deal worth $12M, so between that and what the Yankees agreed to pay him, I misread the market. The dollars are shocking to me, not the people who know what they’re talking about.)

To be clear, I don’t care that the Yankees gave Kluber more than I thought he’d get. As far as I’m concerned the Yankees should outspend every other team every year from now until the end of time. Such are the advantages afforded to them by their market and popularity. It’s just that if you’d have told me the Yankees would spend $11M on a starter this offseason, I would’ve assumed it was Masahiro Tanaka, not a reclamation project.

The $11M price tag tells us the Yankees believe Kluber is healthy and can get back to being a good big league starter. Maybe not an ace -- the Yankees would happily take the Terminator version of Kluber, of course -- but a good pitcher who belongs in a contender’s rotation. I don’t think they would’ve thrown $11M at any pitcher if they had serious concerns about his health. That’s just now they operate, even when they’re not sticking to a tight budget.

There’s no doubt Eric Cressey, who oversees the team’s strength and conditioning department and owns the facility where Kluber trains (and did his shoulder rehab), and pitching coach Matt Blake, who overlapped with Kluber in Cleveland, had input into the signing. They vouched for him, signed off on the shoulder and his mentality and all that. This wasn’t a simple “we watched his showcase and liked what we saw” signing. The Yankees were able to dig deeper thanks to their personnel.

I don’t fully buy into the “there’s no such thing as a bad one-year contract” axiom because a guy on a one-year deal can really hurt you on the field. Examples: Chan Ho Park and Randy Winn. Those guys stunk as Yankees and actively hurt the team. A one-year deal is easy to back out of though, and there’s no long-term risk. If Kluber doesn’t work out, the Yankees can pull the plug, hopefully before he cuts into their AL East odds too much.

If it does work though, goodness, there’s significant upside. Kluber had a 2.89 ERA (3.12 FIP) in 215 innings in 2018, his last fully healthy season. Getting even 75% of that guy would be a huge boost. Even 150 league average innings would be valuable given the state of the rotation. One year and $11M is a worthwhile roll of the dice. I worry Kluber will be their only pitching addition, but that’s a Yankees problem, not a Kluber problem. He was my preferred reclamation project target.

(An added bonus to whatever Kluber gives the Yankees on the field is the young pitchers getting to pick his brain. Clarke Schmidt in particular because he’s similar to Kluber as a two-seamer/breaking ball guy. You can do a lot worse than having Gerrit Cole and Corey Kluber mentoring your young pitchers.)

3. Quick payroll update. The Yankees came into the offseason with about $30M to spend under the $210M luxury tax threshold -- the structure of LeMahieu’s contract all but confirms the Yankees plan to get under the $210M threshold -- and my back of the envelope math now has them about $7M under the threshold after the LeMahieu and Kluber deals, and yesterday’s arbitration signings. (I’ll have a more detailed payroll breakdown next week.)

$7M is not much. Running a $210M-ish payroll this coming season puts the Yankees about $55M -- $55M! -- under last year’s full season luxury tax payroll, but that’s the way it be. I don’t like it and there’s nothing I can do about it. Four weeks until Spring Training and roughly $7M to spend on the rest of roster. Let’s do this.

4. Next order of business. How important was re-signing LeMahieu? Prior to the deal, the projections at FanGraphs had the Yankees with the third worst second base situation in MLB. With LeMahieu, it’s third best. The Yankees are now top 11 at every position except third base (18th) and left field (also 18th). Hooray for lineup depth.

The Yankees wasted no time moving on to the rotation after locking up LeMahieu -- I mentioned yesterday I had a feeling the Yankees would act quickly -- and I don’t think they’re done with the MLB roster despite the limited luxury tax payroll space. The updated offseason to-do list:

1. Add another starter (preferably one who carries less risk)
2. Add a third catcher
3. Add a bullpen arm
4. Add general depth (middle infielder for Triple-A, etc.)

Am I crazy for thinking adding a third catcher is really important? I don’t think so. Not after Gary Sanchez’s disaster season and not with no upper level catching depth. The Yankees don’t just need a third catcher. They need both a starting catcher and a backup catcher for Triple-A and Double-A. The organizational catching depth chart is that thin right now.

With approximately $7M to spend under the $210M luxury tax threshold, the Yankees almost certainly will not re-sign Masahiro Tanaka, at least not without moving someone out (Adam Ottavino?). Tanaka is forever cool with me and I will miss him dearly, though I'm not completely opposed to letting him walk, mostly because his splitter vanished two years ago and that worries me. That $7M doesn’t leave much room for another starter, but you know who the Yankees could afford with that? Luis Castillo or Joe Musgrove. They signed for $4.2M and $4.45M, respectively, prior to yesterday's arbitration filing deadline. I’d happily take either.

Where does this leave Brett Gardner? What about a bullpen arm? I will believe Gardner will be a Not Yankee when I see him in a different uniform, but this is certainly the closest the Yankees have come to moving on from Brett basically ever. There’s enough payroll room remaining to re-sign him, but other needs exist, and the Yankees just added a speedy defense first outfielder (Greg Allen). Gardner is better than Allen. The Yankees also aren't desperate for a fourth (or even fifth) outfielder.

Keep in mind the Yankees will need to set some payroll room aside for in-season call-ups (a 28-man roster would throw a wrench into things too) as well as the trade deadline. I suppose they could worry about the deadline when it comes. After all, if the Yankees get the help they need now, they are less likely to need to make a trade at the deadline. Either way, they can’t spend right up to $210M on Opening Day. There has to be a little wiggle room.

Getting LeMahieu at $15M a year against the luxury tax is a massive win for the Yankees and their ongoing pursuit of austerity. It looked like he would come in around $20M to $25M for much of the offseason. The savings are significant and allow the Yankees to be more aggressive as they search for pitching (and whatever else). Any ugliness toward the end of the contract will be well worth it given the MVP caliber production he can give them in the short-term.

5. LeMahieu’s aging curve. Sign a player into his age 37 season and there’s going to be risk. That’s just the way it is in this sport. LeMahieu may age better than most thanks to his unique blend of elite contact ability and elite exit velocity though. He’s a 90/90 club guy and it’s not a one-year thing. The last five seasons:

• 2016: 91.8% in-zone contact rate and 91.7 mph average exit velocity
• 2017: 90.7% and 89.2 mph
• 2018: 93.2% and 91.3 mph
• 2019: 89.4% and 91.9 mph
• 2020: 92.9% and 91.3 mph
  (MLB average: 83.7% and 88.0 mph)

LeMahieu combines slap hitter contact rates with power hitter exit velocities, and the result has been MVP caliber production, especially in tiny Yankee Stadium. The ability to hit the ball hard and hit the ball often should serve him well as he ages. If the contact slips, the production should still be there through the power. And if the power slips, the production should still be there through the contact. If both slip, then so be it. That’s baseball.

The middle infield is young man’s territory. Only four players age 32 or older have played 200+  games on the middle infield the last four seasons: Robinson Cano, Brandon Crawford, Ian Kinsler, and Jed Lowrie. LeMahieu turns 33 in July and I’m certain the Yankees are entering this contract with the understanding he’ll likely have to move to first base at some point, and that’s fine. Focus on the short-term, win now, and worry about later later.

LeMahieu has already shown he can play first base and play it well, and the same goes for third base. Remember when the Yankees first signed LeMahieu and said they would move him around, and everyone freaked out about the career second baseman having to learn new positions, and then he looked like he’d been playing first and third his entire career? Yeah. I reckon LeMahieu will make it work defensively wherever he winds up in a few years.

For what it’s worth, here’s what ZiPS spits out for LeMahieu the next six years:

Projection systems are inherently conservative and +13 WAR the next four years is great. That’s well worth $90M, especially for a team trying to maximize its championship window. And there’s a chance LeMahieu outperforms that projection given his last two seasons. If nothing else, ZiPS loves the deal. That beats the alternative.

LeMahieu is similar to Alex Rodriguez in that it feels like he was put on Earth to play baseball and nothing else. He’s super instinctual, he’s a great athlete, and he has a unique offensive skill set in his contact ability and hard-hit rates. As long as he stays healthy, the total package should allow him to have value deep into his 30s. There’s risk. It’s unavoidable, but LeMahieu strikes me as less risky than most players his age and with contracts this long.

6. Vote of confidence for Torres. Giving LeMahieu a six-year contract is a pretty strong vote of confidence in Gleyber Torres at shortstop. Gleyber’s defensive issues at short last year are well-known, and giving LeMahieu a six-year contract to play second base tells us the Yankees believe Torres can handle short the next four years (until he becomes a free agent).

At the same time, LeMahieu’s versatility gives the Yankees an out. He can play first base and he can play third base. Should Gleyber continue to struggle at shortstop and a shift back to second becomes necessary in a year or two (or three), the Yankees can move people around and make it work. Give the Yankees a truth serum and they’d tell you they want LeMahieu at second and Torres at short at least the next four years. That’s the best case scenario.

If the Yankees were that concerned about Gleyber at short, this offseason would have been the perfect time to make a move. They could have put him back at second and pursued Francisco Lindor, or gone with a stopgap shortstop (Andrelton Simmons?) and prepared to spend big on next year’s free agent shortstop class (Lindor, Javy Baez, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Trevor Story).

The Yankees did not do that. They brought LeMahieu back and thus committed to Gleyber at shortstop for at least another year, possibly longer than that since the LeMahieu deal makes it less likely they spend on one of those shortstops next offseason. Could they still sign one of those shortstops next year? Sure, but another huge dollar deal would surprise me.

Bottom line: a team worried about its shortstop’s defense doesn’t go long-term with a free agent who locks that player in at short. The Yankees insist they are comfortable with Torres at short and believe he can improve -- Brian Cashman noted Gleyber wasn’t in the best shape after the shutdown -- and they put their money where their mouth is with the LeMahieu deal. Torres is the shortstop now. No questions asked.

7. The righty leaning lineup. LeMahieu’s return means the lineup will remain very right-handed. Aaron Hicks is the Yankees’ only lefty hitter of note and he’s a switch-hitter. The regular lineup figures to look something like this:

1. 2B DJ LeMahieu
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. CF Aaron Hicks
4. DH Giancarlo Stanton
5. 1B Luke Voit
6. SS Gleyber Torres
7. 3B Gio Urshela
8. LF Clint Frazier
9. C Gary Sanchez

Maybe it’s Voit third and Hicks fifth, but that’s pretty much it. You’re not going to see LeMahieu hitting sixth or Judge hitting fourth or something. There are eight -- eight! -- righties in that lineup and five of them had at least a 25% strikeout rate the last two years (Frazier, Judge, Sanchez, Stanton, Voit). That’s a few too many similar hitters for my liking.

I’ll live with it because those are five really good hitters -- those dudes hit .287/.356/.577 (~127 wRC+) in over 2,400 plate appearances combined the last two years -- but they are five similar strikeout heavy righties, and we’ve seen how that can be a problem against certain pitchers or pitching staffs. The Astros and Rays threw hard-throwing righty after hard-throwing righty at the Yankees the last two postseasons and exposed that weakness.

LeMahieu is unlike those five because he makes so much contact, but he is another righty hitter, and now the Yankees have one fewer spot to insert a lefty to balance the lineup. They could trade Frazier and add a lefty outfielder (or keep Frazier and platoon him), or maybe trade Gary and add a lefty hitting catcher (who, exactly? Alex Avila? Jason Castro? yuck), but that’s really it. There aren’t many ways to add a lefty to the lineup without shaking up the core.

As much as one man can represent a doubling down, the Yankees doubled down on the righty heavy lineup with the LeMahieu deal. It’s a risky strategy to some extent, we’ve seen how that lineup can be exposed in a single game or a short postseason series, but given those names, I’m not sure it’s a bad strategy. We’re not talking about run of the mill righties here. I would’ve liked the Yankees to add a lefty bat somewhere this offseason. I’d rather they retain LeMahieu.

8. Kluber’s injuries. Three separate injuries limited Kluber to 35.2 innings in 2019 and one inning in 2020. The injuries were very different. To recap:

• A comebacker broke his forearm in May 2019 (video).
• Suffered an abdominal strain during a minor league rehab outing in Aug. 2019.
• Suffered a Grade 2 teres strain in his 2020 debut on July 26th.

The comebacker is just bad luck. There’s no long-term worry there. The abdominal strain is not something I’m sweating either. Sometimes you pull a muscle. Kluber has no history of muscle pulls -- this dude averaged 225.3 innings a year from 2014-18 (postseason included) -- and I don’t have a reason to believe sore obliques will be a nagging problem.

The shoulder strain though? That’s not something we can chalk up to baseball being baseball. It was a significant strain, and anytime a pitcher Kluber’s age and with that many miles on his arm suffers a shoulder problem, it’s worrisome. The shutdown and weird ramp up period absolutely may have contributed to the injury (Kluber was hardly the only pitcher to get hurt soon after Summer Camp). However it happened, it happened, and it’s a red flag.

This is where the Yankees leaned on Cressey, I’m sure. Kluber rehabbed at his facility, and even if he didn’t rehab with Cressey directly, the Yankees had access to information about his rehab. More information than other teams, presumably. Jeff Passan says Kluber sat 88-90 mph during his showcase earlier this week and that’s about where I’d expect him to be in mid-January. Kluber’s not a big velocity guy. He’s been in the 91-93 mph range for years now …

… and give him a proper build up in Spring Training, and I think the 91-93s will be there. Kluber needs his command and breaking ball more than he needs velocity (that isn’t to say velocity is unimportant). As long as the shoulder injury and age don’t completely take away his command, and his ball is still moving like this (video link) ….

... Kluber should have what he needs to get outs. Enough to meet his 114 ERA+ and +2.2 WAR ZiPS projection would be rad. I’m more worried about health and staying on the field than I am effectiveness, really, and perhaps that’s foolish of me. The current rotation depth chart:

1. RHP Gerrit Cole
2. RHP Luis Severino (expected back at midseason)
3. RHP Corey Kluber
4. LHP Jordan Montgomery
5. RHP Domingo German
6. RHP Deivi Garcia
7. RHP Clarke Schmidt
8. RHP Mike King
9. RHP Jhoulys Chacin (non-roster)

The Yankees aren’t shying away from risk behind Cole. That’s for sure. Risk and upside. If that group works out, it could be spectacular. If it doesn’t, well, I don’t want to think about that right now.

There are still lots of pitchers sitting in free agency. Lots of pitchers willing to sign for $11M. The Yankees must be very comfortable with whatever they know about Kluber’s shoulder to take the plunge. This isn’t a Bartolo Colon/Freddy Garcia situation, where the Yankees signed them because they were the only guys on the board. They had their pick of pitchers and they went with Kluber, and showed a ton of faith in Cressey (and Blake) in the process.

9. 40-man moves. The Yankees have a full 40-man roster at the moment and will need to open spots to accommodate LeMahieu and Kluber when their signings become official. I answered a conveniently timed mailbag question about the 40-man chopping block yesterday, and here’s what I think it looks like:

1. Mike Ford (bad last year and it’s an easy role to fill)
2. Albert Abreu (out of options and not a lock for the MLB roster)
3. Ben Heller (long injury history and still no MLB role)
4. Greg Allen (would they really cut the new guy?)
5. Brooks Kriske (up and down relievers are never safe)

As I said yesterday, I think the Yankees are more likely to clear space with a “my 40-man player for your non-40-man player” trade(s) than they are to put guys on waivers. The dream scenario would be packaging three or four prospects for Luis Castillo and Joe Musgrove, killing two birds (add a good pitcher, clear 40-man space) with one stone. I’m not going to hold my breath.

Another possibility is an Adam Ottavino trade. Ottavino plus a sweetener to get out from his under his $9M luxury tax hit and clear two 40-man roster spots (similar to the Chase Headley and Bryan Mitchell for nothing in particular trade). The top free agent relievers are starting to sign (Archie Bradley, Liam Hendriks, Blake Treinen, etc.) and there could be a market for Ottavino, especially if he comes with a young player like, say, Abreu or Roansy Contreras.

The Giants immediately jumped to mind as a potential Ottavino trade partner. Consider:

• Their bullpen stinks. FanGraphs projections have it 27th in MLB.
• It’s not crazy to think they can be in the Wild Card race next year, especially with an expanded postseason field (they tied the Brewers for the No. 8 spot last year, but Milwaukee held the tiebreaker).
• They’ve been among the more active teams this offseason, signing John Brebbia, Curt Casali, Anthony DeSclafani, Matt Wisler, and Alex Wood. They also tendered Kevin Gausman the qualifying offer, so money doesn’t seem to be an issue.
• They’ve done the “take on money to get a prospect” thing before. In Dec. 2019 they ate the $12.2M owed to Zack Cozart to get Will Wilson, the No. 15 pick in the 2019 draft, from the Angels.

The Yankees would have to replace Ottavino in the bullpen, but between the $7M or so in payroll space they have right now and his $9M disappearing, they’d have more than enough to do that. Heck, that may give them enough payroll space to re-sign Masahiro Tanaka and Brett Gardner, and bring in a reliever too. Hmmm. HMMM.

One way or another, two 40-man roster moves are coming to accommodate LeMahieu and Kluber, and I think a consolidation trade is possible. It would surprise me to see Ford and Heller, or Allen and Kriske, or whoever and whoever, simply placed on waivers. (For what it’s worth, the Yankees sent Kriske to MLB’s Rookie Development Program along with Clarke Schmidt earlier this month. That may indicate they have plans for him. Plans that don’t include dropping him from the roster before he unpacks his bags.)

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)