January 15th, 2021: LeMahieu, Arbitration, International Free Agency, Hendriks, Kluber, Mailbag

David Laurila has a great interview with certified pitching nerd Clarke Schmidt. Among other things, Schmidt discussed the origins of his ultra-high-spin curveball -- it has slider velocity but it’s a curveball -- and how the differences between the Major League ball and minor league ball led to him throwing more two-seamers than four-seamers. Also, Schmidt spoke to Bryan Hoch about his time in MLB’s Rookie Development Program earlier this month. Real interesting stuff. Check it out. Now let’s get to today’s thoughts.

1. Yankees, LeMahieu finalizing deal. At long last, the Yankees and DJ LeMahieu are nearing a new contract. Jon Morosi says it could be done as soon as today and Jim Bowden says it will be longer than four years, which surprises me a bit. That suggests it's one of those "we'll give you the extra year in exchange for a lower average annual salary" luxury tax friendly deals.

Once it was reported LeMahieu was growing frustrated with the pace of negotiations, I had a feeling an agreement wasn't too far away. That was a pretty transparent player-side leak to round up final offers and get things over with. A reunion always felt inevitable to me. It's too good a fit for both sides. I just didn't expect it to take this long.

I'm planning a full LeMahieu post once the deal is official. For now I just want to say two things. First, the Yankees can now shift their focus to improving the team, because right now the 2021 Yankees are essentially the 2020 Yankees minus Masahiro Tanaka and J.A. Happ. They need at least one starter, preferably two, and a bullpen arm wouldn't hurt either.

And second, with LeMahieu now out of the way, the Yankees could move quickly on to other matters. In Jan. 2019 the Yankees signed LeMahieu, Zack Britton, and Adam Ottavino, and traded Sonny Gray, in a span of 13 days. Conditions (i.e. so many needs and so many unsigned free agents) seem ripe for a similar transactions spree, though perhaps not deals of that magnitude.

I'm curious to see the contract terms -- I was going to guess four years and $88M before I saw Bowden's report -- but I'm mostly just happy this is finally out of the way, and the Yankees can move on to other business. They missed out on some pretty great opportunities while waiting out LeMahieu (Yu Darvish salary dump, most notably). There's no good reason to miss out on anything now. 

UPDATE: Jeff Passan says it's a six-year deal worth $90M. Six years! The Yankees clearly went long to keep the average annual value down. LeMahieu's luxury tax number will be $15M through the life of the contract rather than the $20M+ I think we all were expecting. 

2. Arbitration filing deadline. Today is the deadline for teams and their arbitration-eligible players to submit salary figures for 2021. The player files what he believes he should be paid and the team files what they believe he should be paid. If they go to a hearing, each side will state their case and the three-person panel will pick either the salary the player filed or the salary the team filed. Nothing in between.

There has been an uptick in arbitration hearings in recent years -- there were 21 total from 2014-16 and then there were 22 in 2018 alone (22 from 2019-20) -- possibly because players are more willing to challenge teams at a time when spending is being scaled back. Big name players like Trevor Bauer, Carlos Correa, Josh Hader, and J.T. Realmuto have gone to hearings the last few years. Gerrit Cole took the Astros to a hearing in 2019 (and won).

The Yankees have not been to a hearing since beating Dellin Betances in 2017, and before that since beating Chien-Ming Wang in 2008. Luis Severino signed his extension minutes before his hearing two years ago -- they agreed to the deal literally outside the hearing room -- though the Yankees usually avoid hearings. Most players do. Most will sign before today’s 1pm ET deadline.

The Yankees came into the offseason with 12 arbitration-eligible players. Tommy Kahnle was released (technically he elected free agency after being outrighted) and Jonathan Holder was non-tendered, then Luis Cessa and Ben Heller agreed to pre-tender deals, so the Yankees are down to eight unsigned arbitration-eligible players. The eight and their salary projections:

Gleyber’s projected salary strikes me as a little low. He’s going into arbitration with two All-Star Game selections, a handful of MVP votes, 65 homers, and +6.6 WAR. Didi Gregorius, another Super Two middle infielder, received $2.425M in his first year of arbitration despite no All-Star Games, no MVP votes, 22 homers, and +5.8 WAR. All that extra stuff (plus four years worth of inflation) only equals an extra $75,000? Eh. I guess we’ll see.

Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel report MLB and the MLBPA agreed the “arbitration system will be adjusted to consider lessened counting statistics because of the shorter season” as part of the March agreement, though I have no idea how that will happen. Voit led MLB in home runs last year. He wants counting stats to count as much as possible. (Keep in mind the unusual season threw a wrench into arbitration projections. Take them with a grain of salt.)

Nearly every team is a “file and trial” team these days, meaning once the filing deadline passes, the team cuts off negotiations and goes to an arbitration hearing. Arbitration hearings are not a pleasant experience -- the team details the player’s shortcomings in an effort to keep his salary down -- so file and trial is a way to put pressure on the player to sign quickly.

If the Yankees are a file and trial team, it’s a relatively new development. Two years ago they filed salary figures with Severino, then agreed to the extension right before the hearing, so obviously they were still willing to negotiate. Last year they signed all their players prior to the filing deadline. Based on Severino, if the Yankees are a file and trial team, they adopted that approach within the last year or so.

The Yankees are fair with arbitration salaries. Last year they gave Judge the seventh highest salary ever for a first time arbitration-eligible player and Sanchez the second highest ever for a first time eligible catcher, behind only Buster Posey, who had an MVP. With Severino, the Yankees filed what would’ve been the highest salary ever for a first year Super Two pitcher and the second highest for a first year eligible pitcher period, behind only Dallas Keuchel, who had a Cy Young award. The Yankees usually don’t nickel and dime players.

My not-so-bold prediction is the Yankees get all their arbitration-eligible players signed prior to the deadline today, and I say that only because the vast majority of players will sign today. No one actually wants to go to a hearing. If it happens, it happens, but the Yankees tend to be fair, and I don’t think many people on either side are interested in going to a hearing and defending their number under these unusual circumstances.

3. 2021 international signing period opens. The international signing period opens today and it’s an important date for the Yankees. They lean on international free agency to build their farm system because they rarely have high draft picks. The Yankees do well with big money signings (Jasson Dominguez, Gary Sanchez, etc.) and smaller under the radar deals (Thairo Estrada, Deivi Garcia, etc.) alike. Seven of my top 10 prospects were signed internationally. Let’s preview the signing period, shall we?

Bonus pool and new rules

MLB and the MLBPA agreed to several rule changes last March to help navigate the pandemic, including changes to international free agency. Two big rule changes on that front:

• The signing period will run from Jan. 15th to Dec. 15th, 2021 rather than July 2nd, 2020 to June 25th, 2021. The players signing today are the players who would have signed last July 2nd. (Next year’s signing period will also run from Jan. 15th to Dec. 15th.)
• Bonus pool space can not be traded. Your bonus pool is your bonus pool this year (and next year too). The Yankees traded for the maximum allowed every year since the bonus pool system was put in place.

MLB does nothing by accident. Confining the signing period to a single calendar year is a step toward an international draft, something the owners have wanted for years because it’ll keep costs down. The MLBPA is more than willing to negotiate away the rights of amateurs, so bet on the upcoming Collective Bargaining Agreement including an international draft.

As Matt Eddy notes, pushing the signing period back means players will gain an extra year of Rule 5 Draft exemption. Players who signed last July 2nd would have been Rule 5 Draft eligible following the 2024 season. Now they won’t be Rule 5 Draft eligible until after 2025 because of the late signing date. That means an extra year to develop before having to be added to the 40-man roster, and it puts international players on a similar roster timeline as high school draftees.

The Yankees have a $4,232,700 bonus pool this year, according to Ben Badler (subs. req’d). They forfeited $1M in pool money to sign Gerrit Cole and, as noted, they can not trade to add more space. The bonus pool is a hard cap, so the Yankees can spend $4,232,700 and not a penny more (well, that’s not true, because bonuses $10,000 and under do not count against the pool).

Expected signings

The Yankees have been connected to Dominican shortstop Hans Montero since early last year and he is expected to be their most significant signing. MLB.com does not rank Montero among their top 30 international prospects. Badler (subs. req’d) ranks him 23rd, though his rankings are in order of expected bonus, not talent. Here’s Badler’s write-up:

The Yankees landed the top international prospect in the 2019 class, signing Dominican center fielder Jasson Dominguez for $5.1 million. This year they're going to spread their bonus pool space around more, with Montero likely their top target. Montero projects to stay at shortstop, with soft hands, a strong arm and above-average speed. He has a short righthanded swing with a line-drive approach and gap power.

For what it’s worth, two years ago Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel wrote Montero was in the “top tier” of players this signing period, which had “little consensus on the top prospect” at the time. Here’s some video of Montero, who turned 17 in December.

In a separate piece Badler (subs. req’d) says the Yankees are also expected to sign Dominican outfielder Fidel Montero (no relation to Hans), who he says boasts “impressive raw tools (but) shows up-and-down game performance.” Here’s video of Fidel, who doesn’t rank among MLB.com’s top 30 prospects nor Badler’s top 50 expected bonuses (subs. req’d).

Badler (subs. req’d) adds the Yankees are also expected to sign Dominican outfielder Ramiro Altagracia and Venezuelan shortstop Kleiner Delgado, neither of whom rank among MLB.com’s top 30 prospects nor Badler’s top 50 expected bonuses (subs. req’d). I can’t find scouting information on either player. Sorry. I know Delgado is a switch-hitter. That’s about it.

For what it’s worth, Altagracia was originally expected to sign with the Nationals for about $500,000. Now he’s signing with the Yankees. That doesn’t necessarily mean they are giving him more than $500,000 though. Let me explain ...

What about Galiz and Basallo?

Last March we heard the Yankees were expected to sign Dominican catcher Samuel Basallo and Venezuelan catcher Jesus Galiz in addition to (Hans) Montero. They were going to be their top three international signings. That is no longer the case. Badler (subs. req’d) says Basallo is signing with the Orioles for $1.5M, and Galiz is signing with the Dodgers for “about half as much money as he was expected to get from the Yankees.”

What happened? The pandemic. These international deals are agreed to months in advance (often years in advance), and once bonus pool trades were prohibited, the Yankees ran out of money. They were planning to trade for bonus pool space to afford Basallo and Galiz, and suddenly that was no longer an option. That’s why Galiz, MLB.com’s No. 7 prospect, is only getting half his original bonus. That’s all the Dodgers can afford, and it’s very likely that’s the most any team could afford. Teams were capped out and Galiz took what he could get.

That’s also why Altagracia will not necessarily receive more from the Yankees than the $500,000 or so he originally agreed to with the Nationals. Washington presumably backed out of the deal once trades were prohibited, and the kid took the best offer available. We’ll find out his bonus eventually. Long story short, the pandemic and subsequent rule changes derailed a lot of contract agreements, including the Yankees’ deals with Basallo and Galiz. Bummer.

The two Monteros, Altagracia, and Delgado are the only known prospects expected to sign with the Yankees at this point, and it’s possible (Hans) Montero will be the only player the Yankees give seven figures. There will be more signings than those four -- it’ll be months before we get a full accounting of the signing period activity -- but they’re the most notable. Forfeiting $1M to sign Cole (well worth it, obviously) and the inability to trade for more bonus pool space means this is going to be a lighter than usual signing period for the Yankees. So it goes.

4. The Hendriks contract and the Yankees. Earlier this week the up and coming White Sox signed closer Liam Hendriks. On paper, I think Chicago is the most complete team in the American League. That doesn’t necessarily mean they’re the best team or they’ll be the most complete team when Spring Training rolls around. They just don’t have a glaring need like the Yankees (rotation), Astros (outfield), Twins (outfield, rotation), and other American League contenders do at the moment.

The Yankees were never connected to Hendriks this offseason and that was not surprising in the least. Spending big on another reliever was never going to happen (they owe Zack Britton, Aroldis Chapman, and Adam Ottavino a combined $38M in 2021). Any reliever signing will be a smaller deal. This signing makes the White Sox more formidable and the Yankees may have to go through them to get to the World Series, which is about the only way this deal impacts them. Otherwise, whatever.

Anyway, the Hendriks contract has a unique structure, and this is a copycat league, so it’s only a matter of time until other free agents sign similar contracts. Case in point: Yusei Kikuchi. The Mariners gave him a three-year contract with a multi-year club option or a one-year player option. It was the first deal of its kind. Just 10 days later the Yankees gave Britton a two-year contract with a multi-year club option and a one-year player option. The Hendriks structure will catch on eventually.

The Hendriks deal includes three years and $54M in guaranteed money with a fourth year club option. Here is the salary structure (via Bob Nightengale):

• 2021: $11M
• 2022: $13M
• 2023: $14M
• 2024: $15M club option or $15M buyout payable over 10 years

From 2021-23, it’s three years and $39M, which is Britton’s contract had the club option been declined and the player option exercised (it’s also what the Braves gave Will Smith last winter). If Hendriks is still great come 2024, the club option will be picked up. If not, he’ll still get the $15M, though the White Sox will be able to spread it out across 10 years to ease the pain.

The White Sox are not particularly close to the $210M luxury tax threshold (Cot’s has their projected 2021 luxury tax payroll at $162.7M) and they’re unlikely to get close to it in 2022 or 2023 because all their core players except Lucas Giolito are locked up to long-term deals. Their luxury tax numbers are established for the foreseeable future. Payroll is pretty well set.

For luxury tax purposes, buyouts are guaranteed money and club options are not guaranteed years, so the Hendriks deal is $54M across three years, or $18M per year. Chicago doesn’t care that his luxury tax hit is higher than his salary every year from 2021-23 given their payroll situation. For them, the luxury tax is irrelevant. They only care about real dollars.

Because the buyout is spread across 10 years, MLB and the MLBPA will calculate the present day value of the contract somewhere south of $54M. For argument’s sake, let’s say the present day value is $17.5M a year rather than $18M. This would be the luxury tax situation:

• 2021: $17.5M
• 2022: $17.5M
• 2023: $17.5M
• 2024 if club option is declined: $0 because buyout was taxed from 2021-23
• 2024 if club option is exercised: $56M minus 2021-23 to “catch up” on buyout deferrals ($1.5M in our example)

There isn’t a good way to use the Hendriks contract to manipulate the luxury tax. The deferred buyout payment will knock down the present day value and thus the average annual value a tad, though not a game-changing amount*. The structure is great for real dollars. It’s a way to guarantee the player more money while being able to spread some of it out if he’s a dud in a few years.

* Max Scherzer’s contract includes an insane $105M in deferrals, and it knocked his luxury tax hit down from $30M to $28.7M. Lotsa deferrals for not much extra luxury tax wiggle room.

Look at 2024 in our luxury tax hypothetical though. If Hendriks is still great, he’ll be paid $15M that year, but only have a $1.5M (!) luxury tax hit. That sure would appeal to the Yankees, wouldn’t it? Granted, the White Sox still may be great come 2024, in which case prying Hendriks loose may not be possible. But, if he becomes available, he’s extremely luxury tax friendly in 2024.

Hendriks could also appeal to the Yankees even if he’s a dud come 2024. The Yankees could take on his buyout to get something else. Give me that good player and I’ll absorb the $15M you owe Hendriks the next 10 years. That kinda thing. We’ve seen teams eat significant dollars to get young players before. There's precedent (the Braves absorbed $10M owed to Bronson Arroyo to get Touki Toussaint, for example). Eating $15M across 10 years is a drop in the bucket to the Yankees, especially since it would come with a $0 luxury tax hit.

It is possible (likely) I am missing something with the Hendriks contract and there is a way the Yankees can use a multi-year buyout to meaningfully improve their luxury tax situation. Supposedly MLB is vigilant with luxury tax matters though, and anything that looks like luxury tax circumvention will get flagged, and they won’t approve the contract. The Yankees could go the Hendriks route to make the real dollars work better. The luxury tax though? Not really.

Props to the White Sox for coming up with a creative way to structure the contract, and congrats to Hendriks for cashing in big. In terms of guaranteed dollars, it is the fourth largest reliever contract in history behind Chapman ($86M), Kenley Jansen ($80M), and Mark Melancon ($62M). Not bad for a guy who has been designated for assignment four times in his career, including as recently as June 2018. I’m sure we’ll see similar buyout structures moving forward.

5. The latest on 2021. News regarding the 2021 season is beginning to trickle in. Last week we heard the Double-A and Single-A seasons will be delayed -- those players will report to Spring Training after MLB and Triple-A players break camp -- and earlier this week it was reported commissioner Rob Manfred recently told the 30 owners “they should be preparing for Spring Training to start on time in February and to plan on a full 162-game season being played.”

That’s all we know right now. Spring Training is roughly a month away and pretty soon MLB and the MLBPA are going to have to hammer out plans and protocols for the season. Things have to be fluid because of the pandemic, but they can’t kick the can down the road much further. Here is the latest on the return to play plan for 2021.

TV networks dictating postseason schedule

According to Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d), some owners would like to delay the season and play a full 162-game season from May through October, then play the postseason at warm weather neutral sites in November. The problem? The television networks want the postseason on the usual October schedule. Sports overlap caused by the pandemic last year hurt ad sales and sponsorships, Rosenthal says.

You may remember that last year the MLBPA proposed extending the regular season into October and playing the postseason in November, but MLB shot that down, citing concerns about another pandemic wave in the fall. Now that vaccine distribution has begun, MLB would like to delay the season to play as many games with fans in the stands as possible. That’s not unreasonable. Ultimately, there’s too much money on the line to risk upsetting the networks.

Barring a barrage of postponements (not impossible during a pandemic), expect the postseason to be played as usual in October. With the players reportedly unwilling to accept another round of pay reductions, it’s better to start a 162-game season in April than a shorter season in May. That way the owners don’t miss out on a month of television money.

MLB issues memo regarding fans

A limited number of fans were allowed to attend the NLCS and World Series at Globe Life Field last year, and we’re going to see fans in the stands again this year. When and how many is up to the pandemic and local health officials.

To that end, MLB recently issued a memo -- appropriately titled the “minimum health and safety standards” -- setting guidelines for fans to attend Spring Training games, according to Bob Nightengale and Bill Shaikin. No fans will be allowed to attend spring workouts and a limited number of game tickets will be sold.

The memo says MLB will not require fans to provide proof of vaccination or a negative test to be allowed into the ballpark, and there won’t even be temperature checks. Teams can set their own policies (and local health officials will dictate things), but MLB is not requiring any of that. Here’s part of MLB’s memo:

“Mass testing of this kind is not practical with the existing rapid testing options and testing is of limited ability when done days in advance of an event. Clubs retain discretion in this area and may choose to require fans -- or a subset of fans, such as suite holders -- to test, but barring any major advancement in testing technology, the commissioner’s office will not mandate any form of testing for fans.”

…

“MLB’s guidance on fan attendance may change in the coming weeks as circumstances change, and may also be modified later as the season progresses and conditions improve.”

Unless you’re going to rapid test people immediately prior to entering the ballpark, a negative test is not particularly helpful. Temperature checks are useful but hardly foolproof. Requiring proof of vaccination would be the safest way to allow fans to attend games, but that’s just not going to happen. Will you spend money? That’s the test MLB cares about most.

MLB’s memo lays out guidelines for seating (pods), masks (wear ‘em), concession lines (spaced out), and a buffer between fans and the field of play (at least six feet). That’s good. Realistically, there are only so many ways to minimize risk at the ballpark during a pandemic. The stuff MLB is doing is the bare minimum. Teams must come up with their own policies in accordance with local health officials, then submit it for MLB’s approval.

My guess -- and I emphasize this is only a guess based on no inside information -- is a limited number of fans will be allowed into Yankee Stadium by time Opening Day rolls around. We’re in month 10 of this thing now and things are worse than ever, but vaccine distribution is underway, and it should improve once the new administration takes over. I am optimistic (perhaps foolishly) things will improve enough to allow some fans into the ballpark by April. We’ll see.

MLB will not jump the line for vaccines

According to Evan Drellich (subs. req’d), MLB says it will not secure vaccinations for players until health officials deem it appropriate. The NBA made a similar statement last month and so did the NHL, but only after a report surfaced saying the league was looking to purchase vaccines privately (that didn’t go over well).

Here is MLB’s statement on vaccines, via Drellich:

“Like the NBA, Major League Baseball and its clubs will work with public health authorities on issues related to the availability and timing of vaccinations for players and other employees,” MLB said in a statement to The Athletic. “Vaccinations will only be made available to players when public health officials deem it appropriate.”

The majority of MLB players are young and healthy, putting them pretty far down the vaccine priority list. There is going to be backlash no matter what. There’s always going to be that “why are low-risk athletes getting it before regular people?” argument. I get it. Athletes have access to world class health care and guaranteed contracts. The average Joe does not.

That said, MLB players are going to be traveling around the country all summer, and it’s not just about them. It’s about all the people they interact with. Friends and family, stadium workers, flight crew, hotel staff, so on and so forth. That much travel makes athletes a potential conduit for spreading the virus, so vaccinating them early-ish to reduce that risk is sensible.

I don’t envy MLB here. There’s basically no way to get players vaccinated* without some sort of public backlash, and I don’t know the best way to go about this. I feel like the major sports leagues will spend the next few weeks waiting for someone to take the plunge and get their players vaccinated so everyone else can follow suit. Everyone wants to do it, but no one wants to be first.

* Real talk: A not insignificant number of players are not even going to get vaccinated given the sport’s political leanings, and the MLBPA would never agree to mandated vaccinations.

What about rule changes?

No official word on anything yet but you have to think some of last year’s rule changes will stick around to help navigate the season. To wit:

• Seven-inning doubleheaders. They’re still going to play games during a pandemic, so there are going to be postponements. A lot of them. These will be a necessity.
• Extra innings rule. Same deal as last year. It’s a pandemic and you want to speed games up as much as possible. No need for long extra-inning games in 2021.
• Universal DH. It’s bad enough pitchers will have to get built back up after a truncated season. We don’t need to increase injury risk by forcing them to hit.

It might be a little too late in the game for this, but regional play wouldn’t be a bad idea to reduce travel. Maybe regional play in the first half, then open up the schedule and send teams to other divisions in the second half, when conditions improve? I’m not sure how feasible drawing up a new 162-game schedule is at this point. If it’s possible, I say do it.

MLB can probably get away with 26-man rosters rather than 28-man rosters -- I am pro-bigger rosters but those two extra players didn’t play much last year (Erik Kratz, Ben Heller, etc.) -- especially if teams are allowed to bring a taxi squad on the road again, which they absolutely should. I’d rather have too many players than not enough. 28-man rosters in April, then cut back to 26 in May? That was kinda sorta the plan last year, remember.

MLB is going to fight tooth and nail for an expanded postseason field -- they already sold the broadcast rights to the Wild Card Series -- and, generally speaking, I am against it during a 162-game season. An expanded postseason waters down the six-month regular season, and this season will be long enough to separate the pretenders from the contenders. An expanded postseason made sense during that short season last year. With a normal schedule? Nah.

I realize I am fighting a losing battle here. MLB will get its way and get an expanded postseason field this season and likely permanently. Hopefully the MLBPA gets a big enough cut to make it worthwhile on their end. I don’t like it, but what I like doesn’t matter. Sixteen teams is entirely too many. Maybe they’ll settle on 14? Whatever it is, bet on an expanded postseason field again in 2021, with seven-inning doubleheaders and the extra innings rules and other rule changes.

6. Rapid fire thoughts. Corey Kluber held a showcase earlier this week and Jeff Passan says upwards of 25 teams were in attendance, including the Yankees according to Joel Sherman. The showcase was held at Eric Cressey’s facility in Florida, where Kluber trains in the offseason, and the Yankees handed Cressey the reins to their strength and conditioning department last year. Between Cressey and pitching coach Matt Blake, who overlapped with Kluber in Cleveland, the Yankees may have some extra insight into the two-time Cy Young winner. A shoulder injury limited Kluber, 35 in April, to one inning last year. I like him best among the various reclamation project free agents (Chris Archer, James Paxton, etc.), though I really don’t want the Yankees to sign Kluber and only Kluber. Ideally, he’d be the second signing behind a starter you can more reliably expect to take the ball every five days (like Masahiro Tanaka). Reclamation projects are a fun idea until you need them to be good. Anyway, Buster Olney says Kluber could sign as soon as this weekend … Theo Epstein has joined the commissioner’s office as a “consultant regarding on-field matters,” MLB announced yesterday. Here’s the press release. Hopefully Epstein’s job will be bonking commissioner Rob Manfred on the head every time he’s getting ready to say something stupid, because for a smart guy, Manfred says a lot of stupid things. Baseball needs someone with clout who can step in and say “hey, guys, this is a bad idea and will hurt the sport.” Hopefully Epstein will be that guy … And finally, Brendan Kuty reports the Yankees and New York City officials are finalizing plans to use Yankee Stadium as a COVID-19 vaccination site. The Dodgers, Mets, Padres, Pirates, and Red Sox are among the teams doing the same with their ballparks. If you’re in New York and eligible to receive the vaccine, here’s where you can find a location and schedule an appointment. For folks who are not yet eligible, supposedly there will soon be a way to schedule an appointment for your vaccination phase in advance, but I haven’t seen it yet.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Richard asks: With the signing of Greg Allen, the Yankees now have a full 40-man roster. With their next signing (LeMahieu please), the Yankees will have to remove someone from the roster. How would you rank the most likely players to be cut from the roster? Also, do you think the contract signings of Cessa and Heller in December will reduce the likelihood of them being cut from the 40-man roster?

To start with the last question, yes, I think Luis Cessa and Ben Heller getting pre-tender deals reduces the likelihood they are among the first 40-man roster cuts, though it doesn’t make them immune. Cessa is a perfectly cromulent long man, so he’s safer than Heller, who has been hurt a ton and still hasn’t carved out an MLB role.

Looking over the 40-man roster, I think the Yankees are far more likely to clear space via trade than putting someone on waivers. They’ve done the “my 40-man player for your non-40-man player” thing several times: Chance Adams for Cristian Perez, Joe Harvey for Alfredo Garcia, Tim Locastro for Ronald Roman, Jake Cave for Luis Gil, etc. I’d bet on it happening again.

My guess is the 40-man chopping block currently looks like this:

1. Mike Ford (bad last year and it’s an easy role to fill)
2. Albert Abreu (out of options and not a lock for the MLB roster)
3. Ben Heller (long injury history and still no MLB role)
4. Greg Allen (would they really cut the new guy?)
5. Brooks Kriske (up and down relievers are never safe)

I don’t think Ford has much trade value. Similar players like Matt Adams, Logan Morrison, and Renato Nunez are available seemingly at all times, and surprisingly few teams need a first baseman. The Rockies, maybe Cleveland, and that’s about it. Ford could get claimed on waivers and stashed in Triple-A as a depth piece, but I don’t think he’s bringing back anything worthwhile in a trade. The other four players have some trade value, I think.

The Yankees have a few too many 40-man spots tied up in good but not great prospects who, realistically, are nothing more than emergency call-up options in 2021. Roansy Contreras, Estevan Florial, Yoendrys Gomez, Oswald Peraza, Alex Vizcaino, and Miguel Yajure fit into that group. At some point the Yankees are going to need to consolidate and trade two or three of these guys for one player. It’s easier said than done, but it is necessary. Roster spots are a finite resource and too many are tied up in players who won’t help the Yankees next year.

Scott asks: Jim Bowden from the Athletic put together a list of the most underrated prospects for each team and listed Anthony Volpe for the Yankees. The description is glowing saying he can flat out hit, above average defense, and that he has a chance as being a long term SS for the Yankees. Bowden mentions that he called around to front offices to research this article, so I suppose it could be the Yankees front office playing him up, but I wanted to see if you had heard anything similar from other places? Obviously we haven’t seen him play much due to the canceled season and I think he had mono or was hurt, but thought it was worth exploring in light of this glowing review.

Here is Bowden’s article (subs. req’d). It is certainly the most glowing report on Volpe I’ve seen. Here’s a snippet:

Volpe can flat-out hit with a short, compact swing, loud sweet-spot contact, above-average exit velocity and the ability to hit line drives from foul pole to foul pole. He can hit high velocity, breaking balls and off-speed pitches as well as any teenager in the minor leagues. Defensively, he’s an above-average defender with plus range to both sides, soft hands, good first-step quickness and an average quick-release arm from the hole. He’s an above-average base runner and has a chance to be the next long-term shortstop for the Yankees.

Volpe, 20 in April, hit .215/.349/.355 (102 wRC+) with two homers and six steals in 34 games with Rookie Pulaski following the 2019 draft. His season ended early because he contracted mono, then he spent last year working out at home. How did that go? No idea, though Baseball Prospectus’ recent write-up (subs. req’d) says “we’ve heard that Volpe is training well in the tri-state area.” Alrighty.

I talked to a few people who either saw Volpe in 2019 or know someone who saw Volpe in 2019, and the consensus is he’s a player who grows on you the more you watch him. He’s good at everything, he put up big exit velocities in showcase events and is stronger than you’d think given his size (listed at 5-foot-11 and 180 lbs.), and he carries himself like a pro. There is across the board praise for his work ethic and coachability, and how he interacts with teammates.

From what I gather, most agree Volpe has a good enough approach and enough pop and barrel-to-ball ability to be a productive hitter. Does that mean .270 with 15 homers or .300 with 25 homers? I’d bet on the former, but who knows. There seems to be a split on Volpe’s defense. Some (like Bowden) see a no-doubt shortstop. Others see a player better suited for second base. The Yankees are going to keep him at short until his glove necessitates a move.

Now that the short season leagues have been eliminated, I think the Yankees will hold Volpe back in Extended Spring Training to begin 2021, then send him to Low-A Tampa for half-a-season or so. I’m eager to see what he does this year and get some new intel on him. He’s talented but a bit divisive, and the fact he hasn’t played much the last two seasons hasn’t helped matters. Volpe’s a bit of a mystery. I don’t think many are as high on him as Bowden, but he has plenty of fans within the game.

Brian asks: MLB Network just did their annual Top 10 Catchers Right Now. None of the objective list, Dave Valle, Mike Petriello, Sarah Langs, or Vince Gennaro had Gary Sanchez on their list or even mentioned him as "just missed". Am I wrong for thinking he could easily be a top C in the game just like that again? This whole offseason everyone has made it seem like he's toast.

No, you’re not wrong, and I also don’t think it’s unreasonable to leave Sanchez outside the top 10 catchers after last year. He was that bad. The only catchers I am comfortable projecting to outperform Gary in 2021 are Yasmani Grandal, J.T. Realmuto, and Will Smith. Others could outperform him as well (Willson Contreras, Sean Murphy, Sal Perez, etc.), but those are the only three I am 100% confident will do it.

Sanchez’s defensive reputation will never change -- it doesn’t matter what the numbers say, he will be known as a poor defender the rest of his career and his offense will always come with a “yeah, but …” -- and he has a lot to prove at the plate after last season. Gary is talented and he works hard. It’s not often you combine those two things and wind up with multiple seasons of poor performance. As long as he’s healthy, I’m betting on Sanchez rebounding in 2021. These top 10 player rankings are meaningless in the grand scheme of things anyway. They’re just something to pass the time in the offseason.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)