December 18th, 2020: Stanek, Bowman, Velazquez, Warren, Miller, Winter Ball, MLB-MLBPA, Mailbag

Fun story I read this week: David Schoenfield looked at the biggest star traded away by each team. He went with Rickey Henderson for the Yankees, which is a fine pick, especially since Fred McGriff was traded as a prospect. Derek Jeter (+71.3) is the all-time leader in WAR among Yankees draft picks and Andy Pettitte (+60.7) is second. No. 3? McGriff at +52.6 WAR. The McGriff trade was quite the blunder. Let’s get to today’s snowy thoughts.

1. Hot stove updates. We got some rumors and activity this week, and not just Aaron Boone and Brian Cashman saying re-signing DJ LeMahieu is the Yankees’ top priority, which they both did. Cashman confirmed they’re waiting until the LeMahieu situation resolves before moving on to other business.

“Anything that’s come off the board prior to (Wednesday), for instance, came off the board because I’m willing to wait to hopefully find a way to navigate the negotiations successfully with DJ LeMahieu,” Cashman told Dan Martin earlier this week. “The atmosphere is good (with) the fact he wants to stay and we’d like to keep him, but that doesn’t guarantee anything because in free agency, anything can happen.”

Kinda sorta feels like LeMahieu is waiting (hoping) for another team to offer a guaranteed fifth year so he can leverage it against the Yankees. We’ll see. Let’s dive into the team’s other hot stove business.

Yankees interested in Stanek

The Yankees have interest in righty reliever Ryne Stanek, according to Bryan Hoch. The Marlins non-tendered him earlier this month. The Rays sent Stanek to Miami in the Nick Anderson trade last year and he had a 6.03 ERA (6.21 FIP) in 31.1 total innings with the Marlins. He was limited to nine games and 10 innings by a positive COVID-19 test in 2020.

We’ve seen Stanek plenty in recent years, most notably as an opener with the Rays. He had a 3.17 ERA (3.64 FIP) with 28.9% strikeouts and 9.6% walks with Tampa from 2018-19, making 56 “opens” and 48 relief appearances. Whichever team signs him will hope to get that Stanek and not the guy who threw a handful of poor innings with Miami under bizarre circumstances (traded at midseason, pandemic).

Stanek, 29, is a three-pitch pitcher, with upper-80s sliders and splitters complementing his mid-to-upper-90s fastball. The fastball spin rate is top notch. The slider and splitter spin rates not so much. Here’s the obligatory fastball/splitter overlay (GIF via Rob Friedman):

The numbers on Stanek’s splitter are outrageously good. Since 2018, opponents have hit .118 with a .235 SLG and a .156 xwOBA against the pitch. They’ve missed with 56.1% of their swings too. The league averages against splitters are a .209 AVG, .345 SLG, .262 xwOBA, and 35.2% whiffs-per-swing. Maybe he should throw it more than 17% of the time?

During YES Network broadcasts David Cone has said he thinks Stanek can start because he has three pitches, so maybe some team will give him a look in that role in Spring Training. It’s possible he won’t maintain that velocity through 5-6 innings, and maybe his control isn’t good enough to start, but there’s no harm in trying. If it doesn’t work, put him right back in the bullpen.

The Marlins non-tendered Stanek rather than pay him a projected $800,000 salary. That’s super cheap! Those 10 bad innings this summer must’ve really scared them. Also, Stanek will remain under team control as an arbitration-eligible player in 2022 and 2023, and he has one minor league option remaining as well. That’s some nice roster flexibility.

It can be instructive to look at the other teams interested in a player and both the Dodgers and Reds are in on Stanek, report Jorge Castillo and C. Trent Rosecrans. The Dodgers are the model organization for a big market team and the Reds are all-in on analytics (Driveline Baseball founder Kyle Boddy oversees their pitching development). Two teams that really know what they're doing with pitching having interest in Stanek is a good sign.

I looked at a few potential bullpen reclamation projects earlier this week and I should’ve included Stanek. He was very good in the not-too-distant past, he has power bat-missing stuff, he’s versatile enough to open, and he could be a multi-year pickup. If the Yankees can get Stanek for something in the neighborhood of his arbitration projection, sign me the hell up.

Yankees sign Bowman

Hark, a free agent signing. Bobby Nightengale reports the Yankees have signed righty Matt Bowman to a two-year minor league contract. It’s a two-year deal because Bowman had Tommy John surgery in September and will spend 2021 rehabbing. The contract is worth $900,000 at the big league level both years.

Bowman, 29, has a somewhat interesting backstory. He was Mike Ford’s rotation-mate at Princeton -- Ford was a very good two-way player in college (he was named Ivy League Player and Pitcher of the Year in 2013) -- and a 12th round pick of the Mets in 2012. The Cardinals picked Bowman in the 2015 Rule 5 Draft and the Reds claimed him on waivers in 2018.

In 181.1 MLB innings, Bowman owns a 4.02 ERA (3.67 FIP) with middling strikeout (19.3%) and walk (9.0%) rates, but a very good 56.6% ground ball rate. He’s been equally effective against righties (.288 wOBA) and lefties (also .288 wOBA). If you’ve never seen him pitch, there is some Tim Lincecum in Bowman’s delivery (video link):

“I tried it in college,” Bowman told Mark Saxon in 2016 about copying Lincecum’s delivery. “It didn’t work out that well. He’s a special athlete and those mechanics are very unique and a little taxing. There are elements that I think are kind of similar. It’s mostly like the lean back and being an undersized righty that most people think of when they connect us.”

Bowman came up through the minors as a starter but he’s been a reliever exclusively in the big leagues, and he’s thrown as many as six different pitches in his career. A four-seamer, a sinker, a slider, and a splitter have been the constants. Bowman has also toyed with a curveball the last few years, and he added a cutter last season*.

* I recommend David Laurila’s interview with Bowman about the cutter. He said he added it after hearing Roy Halladay learned his cutter from Mariano Rivera, which prompted him to watch old interviews and copy Halladay’s grip.

The four-seamer and sinker sit anywhere from 90-95 mph, the cutter right around 90 mph, and everything else is in the 80-83 mph range. Bowman gets nice and low spin rates on the splitter and sinker, which helps generate those ground balls, otherwise there isn’t much that jumps off the page. It’s a deep arsenal more than an impressive arsenal, if that makes sense.

Bowman did not pitch at all in 2020. His elbow started barking during Summer Camp, he spent a few weeks trying to rehab the injury, then it was determined he needed Tommy John surgery in September. In 2019, he changed his repertoire on the fly. Here’s his pitch usage by game in 2019, and it’s important to note he spent a few weeks in Triple-A in July and August.

After starting 2019 as a sinker/cutter pitcher who threw the occasional curveball and splitter, Bowman finished the season as a cutter/four-seamer guy who also threw splitters, sliders, and sinkers. He put the curveball in his pocket and reintroduced the slider, and scaled back on the sinker while emphasizing the four-seamer. The cutter and splitter were the only mainstays.

“The (Reds coaches) were very helpful in Spring Training making sure that I knew what my pitches can do and how to make corrections when things aren’t going well,” Bowman told Mark Schmetzer in July 2019. “I had a chance to refine that in Triple-A. It’s working out.”

In a fairly limited sample, the results were not terribly different after the adjustment. Bowman got strikeouts, swings and misses, and ground balls at the same rate before and after he changed his pitch selection, though he did cut his walk rate almost in half. Hard to know whether that’s a function of the new arsenal or just the randomness of a handful of innings.

Bowman has been serviceable to date but he still seems to be searching for what works best for him. I always wonder whether pitchers like this are throwing too many pitches. Focus on your two or three best pitches and scrap the rest, you know? The Yankees likely have some ideas in mind for Bowman, though they’ll have to wait until he’s done rehabbing. File him away for 2022.

Yankees sign Velazquez

According to Jon Heyman, the Yankees have signed utility man and Bronx native Andrew Velazquez to a minor league contract. I assume he received an invitation to Spring Training. Velazquez is well-traveled (Diamondbacks to Rays to Cleveland to Orioles in a series of minor trades and waiver claims since 2014) and has 68 games of MLB experience.

In 2020, the Fordham Prep graduate went 10-for-63 (.159) with four steals in six attempts and an American League leading four sacrifice bunts with O’s. Velazquez is a .260/.316/.415 (109 wRC+) hitter in 163 career Triple-A games. Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked him as the No. 18 prospect in Tampa’s stacked system prior to 2019. A snippet of their scouting report:

Velazquez has gone full circle as a player. He was an outfielder for most of his high school career before moving to shortstop. Now moving to center field has kick-started his career because he quickly established himself as an exceptional defender there. While Velazquez is an average defender at shortstop, he's at least a plus defender in center and there are scouts who say he's plus-plus. He's also a plus runner who uses that speed well on the basepaths. And he's a contact hitter from both sides of the plate. He projects to have below-average power with a contact-oriented approach … He doesn't hit enough to be a regular at any one spot, but his ability to play an excellent center field, second, shortstop or third base makes him a useful utilityman.

Velazquez, 26, started 19 games at short for the Orioles this past season and he also saw time at second base, and in left and center fields. He’s played every position other than first base, pitcher, and catcher in his brief MLB career (ditto in his much longer Triple-A career).

A switch-hitter who can play just about anywhere and play anywhere well is never a bad guy to have on a minor league deal (he has two minor league options remaining too). Velazquez may not hit much, but he gives the Yankees depth in center field and on the middle infield, two spots where they’re thin at the upper levels. I look forward to Velazquez inexplicably hitting .280/.340/.450 with +10 DRS next year.

Yankees re-sign Warren

Welcome back (again), Adam Warren. The Yankees have re-signed him to a minor league deal, according to Brendan Kuty. This is technically his fourth stint with the Yankees. They gave him a two-year minor league deal last offseason as he rehabbed from Tommy John surgery (similar to Bowman), then released him in July in a roster space move amid the pandemic.

At the time, Cashman said Warren’s rehab was going well and they would re-sign him in the offseason, and here we are. Warren had surgery in Sept. 2019 and Kuty says he’ll be good to go for Spring Training. We’ll see what he has in the tank then, and whether he can help the bullpen in some capacity. The return of the boringly reliable 2013-18 Adam Warren would be cool.

2. Free agent target: Brad Miller. Offensively, the Yankees lack two things right now: speed and a lefty presence. Neither is imperative but it would be nice to have both to diversify the attack. Without overhauling the roster, there’s not much the Yankees can do to improve their team speed. They’re a station-to-station offense. Not ideal but it’s fine.

Aaron Hicks is a switch-hitter and the only regular who swings from the left side. The only other lefty hitters on the 40-man roster are Estevan Florial, Mike Ford, Mike Tauchman, and Tyler Wade. None strike fear into the hearts of opposing pitchers. The lack of lefties is why the Yankees have interest in Kyle Schwarber (and maintain interest in Brett Gardner).

Among the non-Schwarber lefty bats sitting in free agency is utility man Brad Miller, who spent time in the organization in 2019. He started that year with Cleveland, got released after 13 games, then signed a minor league deal with the Yankees. Miller hit .294/.399/.596 (148 wRC+) in 41 games with Triple-A Scranton, then was traded to the Phillies for cash (I'm pretty sure he exercised an opt-out clause in his contract, leading to the trade).

Since that trade Miller has authored a .246/.346/.523 (128 wRC+) line with 19 homers in 301 big league plate appearances. That includes a .258/.355/.546 (135 wRC+) line against righties and a .232/.357/.451 (121 wRC+) overall line with the Cardinals in 2020. The 31-year-old is a high strikeout (26.9% in those 301 plate appearances) platoon bat, but he’s produced.

Beyond the surface stats these last two years, Miller has put up strong exit velocities and expected stats (.356 xwOBA) that back up his actual stats (.356 wOBA). He is not a lefty pull hitter, however. We’ve seen him visit the short porch and he will yank a ball to right field, but his swing is geared toward left field. His 2019-20 spray chart:

Lefties who don’t need the short porch to have offensive value are the best kind of lefties. Miller has been a comfortably above-average hitter (against righties, anyway) the last two years with that opposite field approach. In theory, he could maintain that approach and produce at a similar rate, and also benefit from a few extra short porch cheapies. In theory, anyway.

The downside with Miller is his defense, which is horrible. With the Cardinals last season, he played 32 games at DH and 18 games in the field (13 starts), most at third base. He’s played every position except pitcher and catcher in his career but is below-average everywhere. Miller is versatile in that he can play all over. He’s also bad everywhere, so how valuable in that versatility?

Assuming a 26-man roster, the Yankees have a bench spot to play with alongside their backup catcher (Kyle Higashioka?), backup infielder (Tyler Wade?), and backup outfielder (Mike Tauchman?). As long as you’re willing to live with the glove and pull him from games late, Miller could be a “tenth” man who plays regularly against righties at first, third, and DH (and is an emergency option pretty much everywhere else). It’s doable.

FanGraphs crowdsourcing projects a one-year deal worth $2M, exactly what Miller signed last offseason. I think there’s a decent chance Miller gives you the same production as Schwarber next year -- same offense and same crummy defense -- at a lower cost, and with a little extra versatility. The Yankees signed Miller in 2018. Their interest may linger.

3. Winter ball update. Winter leagues are up and running in the Dominican Republic, Mexico, Puerto Rico, and Venezuela. The Yankees have several players and prospects playing winter ball this year, so here’s the latest on the most notable.

Sanchez limited to DH

Ten games into his winter ball stint, Gary Sanchez is 11-for-33 (.333) with three doubles, two homers, six walks, and 12 strikeouts. He’s also been hit by a few pitches. Sanchez is not going to catch during his winter ball stint and I’m totally cool with that. No reason to put miles on his knees and legs. Just let Gary go hit and get himself right at the plate.

“He’s just DHing down there," Aaron Boone told Dan Martin earlier this week. “It was really Gary driving (the decision to play winter ball) after having a difficult season and struggling in a shortened season … To his credit, he got after it and got himself ready to go down there."

Luke Voit recently told Brendan Kuty that Sanchez spent a few weeks at the Tampa complex working with the hitting instructors after the season. “(Gary) was literally hitting for hours and hours at a time with both of our hitting coaches. He’s got something to prove. I think he’s changed some of his mechanics, working on his timing,” Voit said.

I’m glad Sanchez got after it after the season and I’m glad he’s doing well in winter ball so far. Ultimately, it means nothing. Sanchez had a disaster season in 2020 and his peaks and valleys are so extreme. When he’s going well, he’s an all-worlds hitter. When he’s bad, he’s abysmal. The winter ball showing is nice. What he does in MLB games is the only thing that matters.

“I don’t have a problem with (Sanchez playing)," Brian Cashman told Martin when asked about everyday players often being prohibited from winter ball. “... When the dust settles, hopefully he gets out of winter ball experience some feel-good from it and a snap back to what we’re used to seeing, which is a prolific hitter …  and continuing his defensive work.”

German still struggling

Domingo German threw four scoreless and hitless innings in his winter ball debut a few weeks ago. In four starts since, he’s allowed 13 runs on 17 hits and eight walks in 12.1 innings. He’s struck out 11 in those 12.1 innings. In his start earlier this week, German allowed four runs and got two outs, and needed 33 pitches to do it. Each start has been progressively worse.

“I think there’s a lot of value in (winter ball),” Boone told Martin earlier this week. “For him to get innings under his belt is really valuable. My hope is he can come in and impact us like he had obviously in ‘18 and ‘19, especially in ‘19 with the step he made. I’m hopeful and optimistic of that, but it’s something that’s months away from coming to fruition.”

The Yankees are already walking back Hal Steinbrenner’s comments intended to keep German at arm's length -- Cashman called German (and Luis Severino) a “No. 2 at worst” earlier this week -- and that’s not surprising. He’s cheap and at worst serviceable (sorry, I can’t get on board with German as a No. 2 right now), so he’ll be back in 2020. In what role? I’m unsure.

The winter ball stats are ugly but I wouldn’t sweat them too much. This is German's first game action in over a year, so the control issues (nine walks and four hit batsmen in 16.1 innings) aren’t the most surprising thing in the world. German is shaking off the rust now and that’s about it. No need to look any deeper than that. How he looks in Spring Training will be more telling.

“Obviously in Domingo’s case, having not pitched this year, to be able to go there and pitch and rack up some innings and just knock off some rust, if nothing else, will give him some momentum coming into Spring Training,” Boone told Randy Miller.

Andujar returns

Miguel Andujar is back in action after an unexplained 24-day, 19-game absence. Maybe he was hurt, maybe he stayed away because the league had a COVID-19 outbreak, maybe it was something else. Whatever the reason, Andujar returned to action this week, and he is 5-for-20 (.250) with one walk and one strikeout through five games.

Andujar has played two games at third base (both before his absence) and three games in left field. Here he is making a running catch earlier this week. I’m not sure where Andujar fits with the Yankees beyond “Giancarlo Stanton injury insurance,” but that is an important role, and it could lead to significant at-bats given the last few years. Hopefully Miggy stays on the field and can get a couple dozen more at-bats in winter ball before shutting it down for the offseason.

Garcia roughed up in latest start

Deivi Garcia is six innings into his 20-inning winter ball allotment and in those six innings (three starts) he’s allowed five runs on five hits and five walks. He’s struck out three. Last time out Garcia was tagged for three runs on three hits and two walks in 2.1 innings. He threw 42 pitches. The numbers aren’t good but I seriously don’t even care. Get those 20 innings in and don’t get hurt. That’s all I ask, Deivi. He could have a double-digit ERA for all I care as long as he does those two things.

Abreu continues to shine

Very nice winter ball showing for Albert Abreu thus far. He’s allowed two runs and six hits in four starts and 16.1 innings, striking out 19. The 10 walks are an eyesore, but Abreu’s always had control problems (career 11.1%), so they come with the territory. Last time out he struck out five and allowed three hits in six scoreless innings.

Here’s Abreu committing some Yankee on Yankee crime against Sanchez (GIF via Lucas A):

A good winter ball season isn’t going to win Abreu a bullpen spot but it’s certainly better than the alternative. He can build some confidence, continue to work on whatever he was working on at the alternate site, and hit the ground running when he reports to Spring Training. If nothing else, the innings are a positive after this lost season.

Abreu turned 25 in September and he is out of minor league options, so it’s MLB or waivers next year. I can’t see him clearing waivers. He’ll get claimed. Another season with a 28-man roster would help his cause considerably. Even with a 26-man roster, there’s room for Abreu as the last guy in the bullpen. Roster needs don’t always cooperate, but I hope the Yankees are able to give him an extended look in 2021.

Miscellany

Luis Medina is ballin’ out with Indios de Mayaguez in Puerto Rico. Two starts, seven scoreless innings, three hits, two walks, 15 strikeouts. He struck out nine in four innings last time out. Medina finished 2019 very strong (1.77 ERA, 2.02 FIP, 35.3 K%, 8.4 BB% in final 45.2 innings) and he spent 2020 at the alternate site. Picking up in 2021 where he left off in 2019 would be very exciting … Estevan Florial is 10-for-39 (.256) with a homer, seven walks, and 13 strikeouts through 15 games. He’s been fine. With the caveat that we don’t know exactly what was going on at the alternate site, I think Florial is the Yankees prospect most hurt by the canceled minor league season. Injuries limited him to 179 games from 2018-19 and he burned a minor league option year with basically zero games played in 2020 (he did play one MLB game, remember). Florial turned 23 last month and his only career game above High-A was that big league appearance last year. Kid needs to play and play a lot … So-so winter ball showing for Luis Gil thus far. He’s allowed four runs on eight hits and three walks in 5.2 innings with four strikeouts. Tigres del Licey were shut down for a bit with a COVID-19 outbreak, so Gil went two weeks between games at one point, and he hasn’t pitched since Dec. 1st. Not sure what that’s about.

4. MLB, MLBPA begin 2021 labor battle. The labor war over the 2021 season has begun, and it is a labor war. Any talk of health and safety being the primary concern is eyewash. The MLBPA wants to play a full season with full pay, and MLB doesn’t want to do that unless there is full attendance. That’s it. That’s all there is to this.

Earlier this week Bob Nightengale published some anonymous owner quotes saying the 2021 season won’t start on time, including one owner who said there is “zero chance” Spring Training will start as scheduled in February. Another owner said this:

"I don’t see a snowball’s chance in hell that spring training can start with protocols in place,’’ a National League owner told USA TODAY Sports on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the issue. “I think there will be significant pressure for players to get the vaccine first before they go to spring training, and if that has to be moved back to April and play 130 games, so be it.

“But to have 162 games, and start spring training at the normal time without players being vaccinated, that’s just crazy.

“Does Arizona and Florida, with their cases spiking, really want teams with about 125 people in each organization coming to town without vaccines?’’

I’ve heard through the grapevine that the master plan is pushing everything back about six weeks. Start Spring Training (or training camp, whatever it looks like) on or around April 1st, and begin a shortened season in mid-May. I dunno, just what I heard. Anyway, the MLBPA quickly responded to the owners. From Evan Drellich (subs. req’d):

“We’ve seen anonymous quotes attributed to club sources casting doubt on the start date and length of the season,” Bruce Meyer, the MLBPA’s senior director of collective bargaining and legal, said in a statement Tuesday. “To be clear, and as we’ve made clear to the league, players are planning on showing up for spring training on time for a full 162-game season as set forth in the collective bargaining agreement and the league’s previously issued schedule.”

MLB can not unilaterally change the length of the season, they need the MLBPA to agree, so we’re in for another prolonged and very public battle. MLB and the MLBPA established protocols that mostly worked and got them through the 2020 season -- there were some hiccups early but the last six weeks or so went well -- so the players don’t see a reason to shorten the season.

The 30 managers and general managers held conference calls earlier this week -- those were the media availability sessions that usually happen in-person at the Winter Meetings -- and, across the board, they said they expect Spring Training and the regular season to begin on time, though I suspect they were just parroting the company line rather than giving their true thoughts.

“We have the reporting dates and that’s what we’re told to get ready for,” Aaron Boone told Kristie Ackert. “I think we’re all sitting here with the experience of 2020, and where we’re still at in our world, and you can draw our own conclusions …  I’m hopeful (Spring Training) is on time and as we see these vaccines start to roll out that that’s a game changer in all this. So, I’m preparing in my mind and approaching my conversations with staff and players that we are on time. If we need to adjust that along the way we will.”

“I’ve been told nothing about our season starting late or compromised,” Brian Cashman added while speaking to Dan Martin. “We have a Spring Training schedule, report date, and a season. Until someone above me tells me otherwise, we’re planning to hit those marks.”

There is no doubt teams lost substantial revenue this year, and the general rule of thumb is they lost less than they say. We shouldn’t take anything ownership says about finances seriously. They have lied about how much money they make for decades. Also, when a team says they “lost” money, it’s often code for “we didn’t make as much as we’d like.”

“A lot of teams lost profits. Great profits,” Scott Boras told Bill Plunkett earlier this week. “But we know this: in operating the game and having baseball games teams make money ... Even without fans, we know that players playing baseball games makes money for MLB teams.”

Although vaccine distribution has begun, not everyone will have access to it come February, so MLB and the MLBPA will have to work together to establish protocols for Spring Training at the very least. If there’s one thing we’ve learned through this pandemic, it’s that a lot can change in a short period of time. It’s impossible to predict two weeks from now. Two months? Forget it.

We don’t know when ballparks will be allowed to reopen at full capacity, and we don’t know when players and personnel will get vaccinated (you can be sure MLB will try to skip the line, and they’ll probably succeed). In that sense, locking into terms about anything right now is foolish because conditions will be very different in a few weeks. The situation is fluid.

I have labor war fatigue and I’m not looking forward to a weeks-long (possibly months-long) squabble between MLB and the MLBPA. Knowing that things will only get worse when the Collective Bargaining Agreement expires next December isn’t helping matters. I wish MLB and the MLBPA could settle this behind closed doors, but that’s not how they operate. For now, the battle over 2021 has begun, and it is a long way from over.

5. Rapid fire thoughts. Aaron Boone clarified the Gio Urshela surgery timeline earlier this week. Boone told Jake Seiner the Yankees wanted Urshela to have the bone spur removed from his elbow right after the season, but Gio didn’t want to do that, which is his right. The Yankees can’t force a player to have surgery any more than your employer can force you to have surgery. Urshela went home to Colombia for a bit, changed his mind and decided to have surgery, then tested positive for COVID-19 and had to quarantine. That’s why he had surgery two weeks ago rather than in October … As expected, Clint Frazier, Gleyber Torres, and Luke Voit all qualified as Super Twos this offseason, reports Ken Rosenthal. They’ll go through arbitration four times instead of the usual three. Joel Sherman notes Frazier, at two years and 133 days of service time, was the last player in the league to qualify as a Super Two. He just made the cutoff. Lindsey Adler adds Miguel Andujar fell five days short of qualifying as Super Two, so not only did all the up and down this past season push Miggy’s free agency back, it cost him Super Two status as well. What a bummer. No wonder his agent is livid … And finally, a sign-stealing letter update: the appeal hearing was earlier this week. Yankees president Randy Levine, a trained lawyer, argued the team’s case and opened with, “Before I start, your honors, I can tell you, Columbia alumni, Lou Gehrig is looking down and he’s very happy that I have you guys as a bench today,” according to Evan Drellich (subs. req’d). I eye-rolled so hard I saw my brain. Anyway, Levine and MLB’s lawyer argued the team’s privacy would be violated by releasing the letter because they are not a party in the case, and the plaintiff’s lawyers softened their stance from “this letter shows the Yankees stole signs and MLB covered it up” to “the letter may indicate something else was going on,” which is quite a difference! Oral arguments are in and the next step is the court of appeals rendering a decision. That could take months, Drellich says.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Paul asks: We're all assuming the Yankees are planning on getting under the competitive balance threshold in 2021, but has there been any comment from any executive that indicates this? I know they don't necessarily have to, but there's still usually some acknowledgment...

No. The Yankees admitted they were trying to get under the $197M luxury tax threshold in 2018, but they’ve said nothing about next year’s payroll target this offseason. Well, no, that’s not true. Earlier this week Brian Cashman said he expects to have the highest payroll in the game next season, which is better than nothing.

“I'm aware of what my directives are,” Cashman told Brendan Kuty. “I feel confident that we will again have the highest payroll, regardless. Our commitment to always fielding a tremendous team will be intact.”

Earlier this offseason Hal Steinbrenner said “there’s no doubt we sustained significant losses this year, more so than any other team in baseball,” and Cashman said the pandemic and revenue losses are “clearly something that factors into how we approach the future.” That is their way of saying payroll will come down without actually saying it.

Because the luxury tax threshold represents the line where extra costs are incurred -- every $1 the team spends beyond $210M next year will really be $1.50 as a three-time offender -- it is a convenient point to limit payroll. The real target may be $200M or $205M or $190M. I dunno. And the Yankees might not know either. So much about next year is uncertain.

I’m hopeful the Yankees will spend right up to the $210M luxury tax threshold and I’d be ecstatic if they go over it. I do worry the real payroll limit is somewhere south of $210M, however. Teams will be conservative with their money. They’ll underspend and overprofit rather than risk stretching themselves too thin.

Alessandro asks: With DD taking over in Philly, maybe we can offer them Ottavino for their dreadful pen?

Brian Cashman and Dave Dombrowski are longtime trade partners, mostly because they are two of the longest tenured executives in the game. They hooked up for the Mike Lowell trade when Dombrowski was with the Marlins, as well as the Jeff Weaver, Gary Sheffield, Curtis Granderson, and Didi Gregorius trades when Dombrowski was with the Tigers.

You don’t hire Dombrowski to cut payroll or rebuild your farm system. His thing is spending money, trading prospects, and building winners. That’s what the Phillies need. They have the core of a contender, I believe, and they haven’t finished over .500 (or gone to the postseason) since 2011. They brought Dombrowski in to get over the hump.

Philadelphia’s bullpen was historically awful this year -- their bullpen’s 7.01 ERA was second worst in baseball history behind the 1930 Phillies (7.06 ERA), and yeah, short season and all, but that’s really bad -- and Adam Ottavino seems to have fallen out of favor with the Yankees. Maybe it’s more accurate to say Aaron Boone doesn’t really trust him. Either way, he’s probably available.

Ottavino for Vince Velasquez? There are days Velasquez looks like the best pitcher in the world and days you wonder how he ever got out of Double-A. Over the last four seasons he owns a 4.99 ERA (4.60 FIP) in 370 innings with a very good strikeout rate (25.2%) and not-so-good everything else (9.5% walks, 37.8% grounders, 1.51 HR/9).

The numbers are poor but Velasquez has an arm you can dream on. His fastball sits 93-97 mph with above-average spin, he throws both a slider and a curveball, and this past season he threw his changeup more than ever. It wasn’t all that effective, but he threw it more than ever because he’s trying to figure out a way to have success. The stuff is plenty good. Here’s video.

Velasquez has started and relieved and neither has worked -- he hasn’t shown the usual velocity spike in the bullpen, I should note -- and he was on the non-tender bubble earlier this month. The Phillies kept him and will pay him a projected $4M in 2021. My dumb trade proposal boils down to one year of Ottavino for one year of Velasquez and $5M in savings.

I think Ottavino is far more likely to post an above-average season in 2021 than Velasquez, and I wouldn’t trade Ottavino just to trade him. If the Yankees can get something of value for him, sure, go for it. Salary dumping him doesn’t appeal to me though, and I’m not sure Velasquez is enough to make it worthwhile. He’d be pitching inventory more than a difference-maker.

Cashman and Dombrowski have a good working relationship and the Phillies will surely look to improve their bullpen, so by all means, see what they’re willing to give up for Ottavino. If the goal is cutting payroll just to cut payroll -- how certain are we that the Yankees would reinvest Ottavino’s salary into the roster? -- then don’t bother. Get something real in return or keep him.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)