December 1st, 2020: Non-Tender Deadline, Scherzer, Pitching Market, Winter Ball

Did y’all have a good Thanksgiving? Hope so. I’m out of leftovers already but I did put up my Christmas tree this weekend, which is definitely a record. I've never had it up this early. I had nothing better to do Saturday and figured I might as well get it out of the way. Anyway, here are today’s thoughts.

1. Non-tender deadline. The non-tender deadline is 8pm ET tomorrow and in the interest of self-promotion, allow me to point you to this non-tender preview I did at CBS. The biggest non-tender decision for each team, basically. You don’t have to read it. Just click the link and leave the tab open a few minutes. Maybe scroll to the bottom too. Thanks.

In all seriousness, the non-tender deadline figures to be fairly uneventful for the Yankees. Any talk the Yankees will non-tender Gary Sanchez is just speculation to fill column inches -- with a $5M-ish projected salary, it would be crazy to non-tender him no matter how bad he was during the 60-game season -- and they don’t have any other big name non-tender candidates.

Non-tendering Domingo German after his domestic violence suspension and lost 2020 season sounds plausible but I don’t buy it no matter what Hal Steinbrenner says. If they’re that appalled, they could have released him these last few weeks without penalty. No need to wait until the non-tender deadline. The Yankees need pitching and German is cheap and serviceable (or better). He’s staying.

The most likely non-tender candidates are lower profile relievers: Luis Cessa (projected $1.1M), Ben Heller ($700,000), and Jonathan Holder ($900,000). I’ve mentioned Heller as a non-tender candidate plenty the last few weeks. As an unestablished 29-year-old with a long injury history, non-tendering him and trying to re-sign him to a minor league deal is an obvious move.

Given the expected wave of non-tenders -- my hunch is there will be more non-tenders than usual this year but it won’t be as bad as feared -- teams may leverage tomorrow’s deadline into club friendly deals. Either take this lower than projected salary or we’ll non-tender you and you’ll have to look for work in a flooded free agent market. That kinda thing.

Let’s take Holder, for example. He had a $750,000 full season salary this past season and threw 21.2 innings with a 4.98 ERA and nearly as many walks (11) as strikeouts (14), and over the last two years he has a 5.86 ERA (4.71 FIP). Would he really hold his ground and risk a non-tender if the Yankees offer him something like $800,000 rather than his $900,000 projection?

Front offices are ruthless and they will absolutely try to leverage tomorrow’s deadline into these “pre-tender” deals that save the team a few bucks by preying on the players’ fear of being out of work this winter. They might even leverage the deadline into pay cuts in some instances. Mostly though, I think they’ll focus on smaller than expected raises. Pay cuts would be a hard sell in the vast majority of cases.

I expect tomorrow’s non-tender deadline to be fairly uneventful for the Yankees. They’ll probably use it to get Heller off the 40-man roster without exposing him to waivers, maybe Mike Ford and Brooks Kriske as well, and that’s about it. If the Yankees are busier than usual, it’ll likely be because they strong-arm players into “pre-tender” deals with smaller raises than projected.

2. Scherzer as a trade target. Is it time for the Nationals to consider trading Max Scherzer? I’m planning to put together a “the cases for and against” style post at CBS about a Scherzer trade at some point and the case for breaks down like this:

• The Nationals are sneaky bad. They went 26-34 in 2020 and are a projected middle of the pack team in 2021 with so much value tied up in right field (Juan Soto), shortstop (Trea Turner), and the rotation (Scherzer, Patrick Corbin, Steven Strasburg).
• Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked their farm system 28th in the game following the 2021 draft, and there’s no immediate help on the horizon. They have a top heavy MLB roster and lack depth. They’re a key injury or two away from 90 losses.
• The free agent pitching market is thin and Scherzer, with one year remaining on his deal, would bring back a significant haul. Put an ace on the trade market and conditions are ripe for a bidding war among contenders.

I don’t believe the Nationals will seriously consider trade offers for Scherzer this offseason. They seem far more likely to extend him than trade him. Washington is still a win-now team -- they’ve already been connected to DJ LeMahieu and Kris Bryant this offseason -- and trading Scherzer is the opposite of a win-now move. Any trade chatter is just fantasy.

Squint your eyes and you can see the merit to trading Scherzer, however, and seeing how this is a Yankees blog and we all like to rosterbate, I wanted to talk out the possibility of a Scherzer to the Yankees trade, no matter how remote the chances. Let’s dig in.

Is he still good?

Well, yes, duh, though he did just have his worst season in quite some time. Scherzer, 36, had a 3.74 ERA (3.46 FIP) with 31.2% strikeouts and 7.8% walks in 67.1 innings in 2020. He was very good, clearly, though that is his highest ERA since 2012, his highest FIP since 2011, his lowest strikeout rate since 2016, and his highest walk rate since 2010. Also, his 1.34 HR/9 was his highest since 2011. A very good year overall but a down year by Scherzer’s standards.

At age 36, age-related decline is always a concern, though this was an unusual season, and Scherzer did play through nagging hamstring and neck issues. The hamstring issue is whatever. It happens. The neck trouble is more worrisome because it has given him problems for a few years now, including forcing him to miss Game 5 of the 2019 World Series. Scherzer’s arm is perfectly healthy -- he’s been remarkably durable -- but bad necks can be just as debilitating.

Scherzer’s velocity has been trending down in recent years, which is perfectly normal given his age and career workload (nearly 2,500 big league innings). He still sits in the mid-90s though, and his slider and changeup are among the best secondary pitches in the sport. Scherzer did not limit hard contact as well in 2020 as in the past …

… though it’s impossible to know how much the hamstring and neck problems (and the unusual season) contributed to that. It’s entirely possible Scherzer is slipping into his decline phase and his days as one of the game’s elite starters is over. It’s also possible 2020 was just a blip on the radar, with the weirdness of the season compounded by some injury problems.

Scherzer is an all-time bulldog -- I have no worries about him in pressure situations or in the clubhouse, anything like that -- and his red flags are more health-related than skills-related. He’s starting from such a high baseline that even with some decline in 2021, he could still rank among the game’s best starters. Of course, CC Sabathia went from a 3.38 ERA in 2012 to a 4.78 ERA in 2013, so things can fall apart quickly. I think the upside is easily worth the risk.

Contract status

Scherzer has one year and $120M remaining on his contract. For real. The Nationals include heavy deferrals in just about all their free agent contracts and Scherzer’s deal is no different. As someone who covers the Yankees, I’m thankful their contracts are straightforward and easy to analyze. No deferrals or crazy escalators to worry about.

Anyway, Scherzer’s contract is complex and I’m not even sure where to start, so I guess I’ll just lay it out in the simplest terms:

• 2021: $35M salary deferred without interest, will receive $15M signing bonus payment
• 2022-28: $15M a year in deferred salary payments ($105M total)
• $28,689,376 luxury tax hit

Scherzer’s contract is seven years and $210M, which is $30M annually, but the deferrals lowered the present day value to $191,409,858 and thus lowered his luxury tax hit a tad. More important than the luxury tax hit is the actual money. Scherzer is owed only $15M in real dollars in 2021 and that’s appealing given cash flow issues during the pandemic. That’s a little more than Drew Smyly money.

It’s important to note only salary is prorated, not signing bonuses, so Scherzer will get his $15M next year no matter how many games are played. Even if COVID-19 forces the entire 2021 season to be canceled, Scherzer has $15M coming to him. I have no idea what prorating salary would do to the deferrals in his contract and I am thankful that is not my problem right now.

Trade for Scherzer and you have to work out the money with the Nationals, and it’s complicated. Am I paying his $15M signing bonus next year? Okay, but am I also responsible for the $35M in deferred salary as well? And when do I have to pay that? Is it spread out evenly from 2022-28 or concentrated in specific years? A trade involves one year of Scherzer but potentially several years of money.

Would he accept a trade?

Scherzer has 5-and-10 no-trade protection and is in complete control of his situation. His legacy is secure -- I’d vote for him for the Hall of Fame but getting to 200 wins (he has 175) and 3,000 strikeouts (2,784) would help with some voters -- and he may not want to relocate and have to ingrain himself with a new team at this point in his career. I wouldn’t blame him for wanting to stay, no matter how shaky things look for the 2021 Nationals.

That said, perhaps the Nationals have indicated they will not re-sign Scherzer next offseason, so he knows a relocation is coming anyway. Also, baseball players are competitors, and even with three Cy Youngs and a World Series ring, I doubt Scherzer is satisfied. He wants another ring, another Cy Young, and more glory. If he doesn’t believe the Nationals can provide that, he may welcome a trade this offseason. Wouldn’t be the first player to go that route.

The 5-and-10 rights also give Scherzer the leverage to demand something in exchange for accepting a trade, such as a contract extension. Justin Verlander’s recent extension (two years and $66M) is an obvious reference point. Verlander signed his extension at the same age Scherzer is now and they’re similar “best of their generation” type pitchers. It fits perfectly.

Ultimately, we don’t know whether Scherzer would welcome a trade, though the Yankees are probably among the teams he’d strongly consider waiving his no-trade clause to join. They’d give him a chance to win and he wouldn’t have to come in and be The Guy. Gerrit Cole already wears that crown. Demanding an extension would be smart business. Nothing more.

What would it take?

When I wrote about Lance Lynn as a trade target, I noted impact pitchers are rarely traded one year prior to free agency. They’re usually traded with multiple years of control or as rentals at the deadline. Trading one full season of a high-end starter basically never happens and that’s where Scherzer is at, kinda. Demanding an extension would change the calculus. Or would it?

Let’s assume Scherzer wants a two-year extension in exchange for waiving his no-trade clause. In that case, are you trading for three years of him, or are you trading for one year of him and giving him the extension in a separate transaction? It matters! Why would I give the Nationals a greater return when they played no role in the extension? Washington is entitled to one year of Scherzer, not three. They’re trading me one year and I’m paying for the other two.

The Nationals won’t see it that way, of course. They’ll want a return commensurate with three years of Scherzer, whatever that is, rather than one. That could be a dealbreaker. The money could be a dealbreaker. His 5-and-10 rights could be a dealbreaker. There are so many hoops to jump through to make this happen that a trade is very unlikely, but I’ve said that already.

The Baseball Trade Values site says Mike Tauchman would be an overpay for Scherzer and lol at that. (If it takes one guy four years to produce roughly the same surplus value as one year of the other guy, the other guy is way more valuable.) Here are the rental trade benchmarks I noted in the Lynn post. This is what it’s taken to get one postseason run of an impact starting pitcher in recent years:

• Johnny Cueto: Traded for a top 60 global prospect (Brandon Finnegan) and two top 20 organizational prospects (John Lamb and Cody Reed).
• Yu Darvish: Traded for a top 100 global prospect (Willie Calhoun) and two top 30 organizational prospects (A.J. Alexy and Brendan Davis).
• David Price: Traded for a top 20 global prospect (Daniel Norris) and two top 30 organizational prospects (Matt Boyd and Jairo Labourt).

With their other core players (Corbin, Soto, Strasburg, Turner) in their primes, trading Scherzer for MLB ready pieces makes more sense than trading him for prospects. Trade Scherzer for prospects and you might as well tear it all down. Trade him for MLB help and you can win again soon, and hey, maybe that includes re-signing Scherzer next winter. He may decide to be mercenary for a year, then return to Washington. I’d respect it.

Are three years of Jordan Montgomery and four years of Clint Frazier too much to give up for one (but possibly three) years of Scherzer? It certainly is from a surplus value perspective and it probably is from a more nuanced real world perspective. Scherzer is better than Montgomery, and as much as I love Frazier, he can be replaced in free agency. The Yankees are trying to win a World Series and Cole-Scherzer in October is far more formidable than Cole-Montgomery.

Based on those rental trades above, a prospect trade for Scherzer would likely have to be built around Deivi Garcia or Clarke Schmidt, and include two other strong secondary pieces. If you’re the Yankees, the goal is to add Scherzer to what you have already, not subtract from the MLB roster to get him, but I’m not sure that’s possible. A prospect trade is much more preferable.

Does it make sense?

In a vacuum, yes, of course. Scherzer would improve the odds of a World Series title in 2021 considerably, and that’s the ultimate goal. This is not a vacuum though and there are so many logistics to work out. The money, his no-trade protection, the trade package, etc. It simply may be too much to iron out. With this free agent market though, I think you have to at least call Washington and see what’s what. Difference-making pitchers are in short supply and it never hurts to ask. Nationals GM Mike Rizzo won’t be insulted. He knows the deal.

Scherzer was mentioned in trade rumors last year, when the Nationals started slowly, though that always seemed like speculation more than legitimate “they may move him” reports. As I said earlier, I think it’s far more likely the Nationals extend Scherzer than trade him, but the stars are aligned in such a way that a trade is plausible. The team is mediocre and the market lacks quality starters. If Washington puts him out there, the Yankees must check in.

3. One-year free agent pitchers. Pop quiz hotshot: prior to Gerrit Cole, when was the last time the Yankees signed a free agent starting pitcher from another team to a multi-year contract? I’ll give you a moment to think about it.

…

…

Give up?

…

It was Masahiro Tanaka in 2014, and before him it was CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett in 2009. The Yankees did give J.A. Happ two years, but that was after he spent a few weeks with them as a rental, so they were familiar with him. They have traded for starters with multiple years of control (Nate Eovaldi, Sonny Gray, James Paxton, Michael Pineda, etc.), but players in their team control years work on a series of one-year contracts, reducing risk.

When it comes to free agent starters the Yankees have no experience with -- you could argue they had experience with Cole given their draft history -- they stick to one-year deals unless it’s the best of the best, like Cole and Tanaka and Sabathia. Coincidence or intentional? I think it’s the former* but it’s kinda interesting we’re going on more than a decade of the Yankees limiting free agent starting pitcher** contracts to one year unless they’re getting a stud or they know the guy firsthand.

* The Yankees have certainly been connected to many free agent starters who wound up with multi-year contracts with other teams over the years (Patrick Corbin, Jeff Samardzija, Ervin Santana, etc.), but those rumors haven’t turned into signings. It’s a pattern.

** This strategy extends to relievers to some degree as well. Aroldis Chapman and Adam Ottavino are only free agent relievers from other teams to get a multi-year contract from the Yankees since Andrew Miller in 2014, and Chapman was basically a re-signing given his time with the Yankees before the trade in 2016.

It’s easy to argue for and against this strategy. At a time when the luxury tax threshold functions as a salary cap, teams get themselves into trouble when they overpay for mediocrity, not when they pay stars, and a 30-something mid-rotation starter usually doesn’t pitch like a mid-rotation starter for the duration of his contract. The Burnetts and Samardzijas can turn into an expensive problem real quick (see: Burnett and Samardzija).

That said, ignoring a big chunk of the market limits your options, and those mid-rotation starters can help you win before the bad years set in. That’s what happened with the Yankees and Burnett, the Giants and Tim Hudson and Jake Peavy, so on and so forth. It’s easier to live with the pain later when you get the reward upfront. The alternative (trading for controllable arms) is a fine idea, but the Yankees haven’t knocked it out of the park in that department.

I’m pretty confident the Yankees would go multiple years to re-sign Tanaka. Not at any dollar amount, obviously, but multiple years. Aside from him, I’m not sure they’d go more than one year for any free agent starter, including Trevor Bauer. I don’t see them spending $25M+ on any free agent and that’s what it’ll take to get Bauer, multiple years or otherwise.

Here are the free agent starters MLBTR and FanGraphs crowdsourcing both project to receive one-year contracts this winter (using both so we have something of a consensus):

• RHP Corey Kluber: +2.6 WAR in 2021 (projected)
• RHP Chris Archer: +1.9 WAR in 2021
• RHP Adam Wainwright: +1.3 WAR in 2021
• RHP Anthony DeSclafani: +1.0 WAR in 2021
• LHP Jon Lester: +0.7 WAR in 2021

Not great! There is merit to signing Kluber, though he can’t be the signing. The Yankees need to add a stabilizer to the rotation, then they can roll the dice on a bounceback candidate like Kluber or Archer or Paxton. DeSclafani was an analytics darling once upon a time, though he’s been hurt a bunch. Archer is coming back from Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery and Lester and Wainwright are long in the tooth.

Could the Yankees convince, say, Jake Odorizzi to take one year? I doubt it. He misread the market and accepted the qualifying offer last offseason, so I imagine he’s looking to cash in as much as possible this winter. Rick Porcello? Jose Quintana? Garrett Richards? Do any of those guys sound appealing, even on a one-year deal? Not really.

I guess this is a very long way of saying that, unless the Yankees are suddenly okay with giving multi-year contracts to mid-range free agent starters, they’re probably going to venture into the trade market to address their rotation. The Eovaldi and Pineda trades came out of nowhere -- there were no rumors at all -- and Paxton a little less so. I think we’re in for another move like that given the free agent market and the team’s tendencies.

4. Winter ball update. The winter ball season is a few weeks old and there have been some important developments in recent days. First and foremost, the Dominican Winter League experienced a COVID-19 outbreak that shut down part of the league. Tigres del Licey had 13 players test positive and Gigantes del Cibao had 10 players test positive, according to Hector Gomez. Both teams resumed play last night after shutting down on Nov. 19th.

There are no Yankees players on Gigantes del Cibao but Albert Abreu and Luis Gil are on Tigres del Licey, and there’s no word whether they’re among the 13 players who tested positive. I suspect we won’t learn who tested positive unless the players tell us themselves. Abreu and Gil appeared in one game each -- Tigres del Licey has only played three games -- before the team had to hit pause on their season. If we get an update on them at some point, I’ll pass it along.

Second, Deivi Garcia has joined Tigres del Licey and will make his debut today, according to Sussy Jimenez. The Yankees have cleared him to throw 20 innings, so figure 4-5 starts. I guess that’s positive news for the team’s COVID-19 outbreak? Anyway, 20 innings isn’t much but a) I’m guessing the Yankees want to make sure he gets enough rest before Spring Training, and b) it’s better than nothing. Garcia turned 21 in May and he threw only 35.1 non-alternate site innings this year. He needs the work. He needs to develop.

Third, Gary Sanchez has joined Toros del Este, the team announced. He's going to make his debut Friday. Not coincidentally, that is after the non-tender deadline. Gotta look out for No. 1 and the last thing Gary needs is to suffer a serious injury and give the Yankees a reason to cut him loose before the deadline tomorrow. I'm not sure how long Sanchez will remain with the team, but however long his winter ball stint will be, it begins Friday.

Fourth, Miguel Andujar is 2-for-11 (.182) through three games with Toros del Este and he has not played since Nov. 20th. He’s only missed six games -- they’ve had a few rainouts and also games postponed because of the COVID-19 outbreaks -- but something’s up. The DWL is very competitive and they’ll bench anyone who isn’t producing, but three games is a real quick hook. Andujar might be hurt, or maybe he went home when the outbreaks hit (Rays first base prospect Nate Lowe went home after a week because of the outbreaks, so it’s not unheard of).

Fifth, Domingo German has made three starts with Toros del Este. The first was great, the second was good, and the third was a clunker. The numbers:

• Nov. 16th: 4 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 7 K (part of a combined no-hitter)
• Nov. 24th: 5 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 1 K
• Nov. 29th: 4.2 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 4 K

“He started (the combined no-hitter) and he went four innings and he looked great. He’s throwing the ball really, really well. Sharp breaking ball, good fastball (96-97 mph). He looks really good,” Toros del Este pitching coach (and former Mets pitching coach) Phil Regan told Tim Healey, which is all we have on Domingo’s performance other than the stats.

I wouldn’t sweat the performance too much, honestly. These are German’s first competitive games in over a calendar year and there’s bound to be some rust to shake off. That he’s come out looking competent rather than wild or with flat stuff is good news. I don’t know what the future holds for German with the Yankees. Even if they do cut him loose, he wants to impress in winter ball, and he seems to be doing that.

And sixth, a few other Yankees are playing winter ball, including Estevan Florial. He is 2-for-4 with a double and three walks through two games with Leones del Escogido in the DWL. Pablo Olivares is 1-for-11 (.091) with six strikeouts through three games with Aguilas de Zulia in Venezuela. Oswald Peraza, who was just added to the 40-man roster, is on the Cardenales de Lara roster in the Venezuelan Winter League, but has not played.

Winter ball in Puerto Rico has not yet started and I’m not sure whether they’re going to play this year. The Mexican Pacific League season has begun but is currently on pause because of a COVID-19 outbreak. Non-prospect infielder Luis Santos is the only Yankees player in the league. Abreu, Andujar, Florial, Garcia, German, Gil, and Sanchez are the important names to know this winter ball season. Peraza too, if he plays.

5. Remembering a random Yankee: Denny Neagle. By request, this week’s random Yankee is a lefty pitcher who was brought in to help the Yankees win the World Series and I guess he kinda did that? Here's the random Yankee archive. You can find links back to everyone we've covered there.

Neagle started his big league career with the Twins in 1991 -- his MLB debut was cut short by a liner to his pitching arm -- but he didn’t stay there long. Minnesota sent him to the Pirates for John Smiley in March 1992, and four years later Pittsburgh traded him to the Braves for a package that included Jason Schmidt. Neagle lost to the Yankees in the 1996 World Series -- he allowed three runs (two earned) in five innings in the Game 4 loss (the Jim Leyritz game) -- though he won 20 games and finished third in the Cy Young voting in 1997.

Atlanta traded Neagle to the Reds in a deal that sent Bret Boone and Mike Remlinger the other way in Nov. 1998. From 1995-99, Neagle pitched to a 3.46 ERA (124 ERA+) and averaged just under 200 innings per season. He was an effective workhorse starter who went to two All-Star Games (1995 and 1998) and had postseason success (3.09 ERA in 35 innings from 1992-98).

The 2000 season was more of the same. Neagle started every fifth day like clockwork and took a 3.86 ERA into July. Cincinnati was 7.5 games out of a postseason spot with five teams ahead of them in the standings on July 1st, and once Neagle rejected a three-year extension worth a reported $18M, the Reds put him on the trade market. He was arguably the top starter available.

“No one wants to lose their No. 1 starter,” Reds then-GM Jim Bowden told Christian Ewell. “But we have to do the best we can within our market size to put a competitive team on the field. We’re concerned with the reaction, but trading Denny doesn’t mean we don’t want to win between now and (2003).”

Roger Clemens and Orlando Hernandez (and Ramiro Mendoza) missed time with injuries in the first half of the season and the Yankees were giving spot starts to journeyman Jason Grimsley and rookie Jake Westbrook. On July 12th, nearly three weeks before the trade deadline, they outbid the Braves, Diamondbacks, Mets, and White Sox to get Neagle in a six-player trade.

• Yankees get: Neagle, OF Mike Frank
• Reds get: 3B Drew Henson, OF Jackson Melian, RHP Brian Reith, LHP Ed Yarnall

Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked Melian and Henson the No. 72 and No. 100 prospects in the game, respectively, prior to the 1999 season, though their star was dimming. Reith was in High-A at the time and Yarnall (a random Yankee himself) bombed in his rotation audition. The Yankees gave up nothing off their MLB roster to get Neagle.

“We have a chance to three-peat. At least a chance to try to make that happen. Now's the time to make a stand and go for it,” Brian Cashman told the Associated Press after the trade. That came two weeks after the Yankees traded for David Justice and nine days before they traded for random Yankee Glenallen Hill. All their chips were in the middle of the table.

Neagle’s stint in pinstripes started well. Very well, in fact. He allowed one run in eight innings against the Phillies in his Yankees debut, and five days later he allowed one run in a complete game win over the (Devil) Rays. Things went downhill from there. The Angels tagged Neagle for six runs in 1.2 innings on Aug. 12th, then he gave up five runs in back-to-back starts against the Rangers and Athletics on Aug. 22nd and 27th.

“In a nutshell, I stunk,” Neagle told George King during the rough stretch as speculation that the longtime NL pitcher couldn’t adjust to the DH league swirled. “I couldn’t get comfortable. I felt foreign on the mound. I knew what I was doing wrong. I was overcompensating for the mistakes I made my last start.”

Neagle pitched to a 7.52 ERA in September -- opponents hit .302/.352/.500 against him that month -- which is pretty wild considering he allowed three earned runs in 15.2 innings in back-to-back starts against the Royals and Blue Jays in the middle of the month. When the regular season ended, Neagle had a 5.81 ERA (83 ERA+) in 91.1 innings with the Yankees. They went 8-7 in his 15 starts, including 5-7 in his final 12 starts.

The Yankees needed the full five games to beat the Athletics in the ALDS that year and Neagle did not appear in the series. They opted to start Clemens on short rest in Game 4 rather than give the ball to Neagle (Andy Pettitte started Game 5 on normal rest). Because the ALDS went the distance, the Yankees had to start Neagle in Game 1 of the ALCS against the Mariners. He was the only pitcher not on short rest.

Neagle pitched well in Game 1, holding an offense that scored 907 runs in the regular season to two runs in 5.2 innings. The Yankees lost the game 2-0, however. Neagle started Game 5 and did not pitch well, surrendering three runs in 4.1 innings. The Yankees lost that game 6-2 but did win the series in six games. They went 4-0 and outscored the Mariners 29-10 in the four games Neagle didn’t start.

After Game 5, Joe Torre criticized Neagle for not being aggressive enough, which Neagle called a “garbage assessment,” according to Kevin Kernan. “That’s a real bad perception of the way I pitched. Two runs in two games (for the offense), it’s tough to win with that. The last time I looked, I did my job,” he added.

Similar to Kenny Rogers in 1996, the Yankees had little choice but to continue starting Neagle in the postseason. Their only other option was David Cone, who had a 6.91 ERA during the regular season and was nearing the end of the line -- he threw one mop-up inning in the ALDS and ALCS combined -- so Neagle got the ball again in the Subway Series. He started Game 4 against the Mets.

Game 4 started well enough. The Yankees scored a run in the first, a run in the second, and a run in the third to build an early 3-0 lead. Neagle gave most of it back on Mike Piazza’s two-run homer in the bottom of the third (video). He would not face Piazza a third time. After two quick outs to begin the fifth, Torre pulled Neagle with Piazza due up and the Yankees nursing the 3-2 lead. He’d thrown 73 pitches and this was long before the third time through the order penalty was mainstream. Neagle was out away from qualifying for the win.

''I thought I was pitching well enough to still be in the game,'' Neagle, who put six men on base in the first four innings, told Joe Lapointe following the game. ''I was disappointed. I didn't even know (Torre) was coming out until I turned around to get the ball back. I really did think he was going to talk about the situation.''

“When you’re managing during the season, you’re doing things to help you in the long run,” Torre told Kernan after the game. “When you get in a short series, you’re doing things today and for today.”

Torre pulled Neagle and went to Cone, who pitched poorly during the regular season but had the manager’s trust thanks to past success. Cone needed five pitches to get Piazza to pop up to end the inning. Neagle and Cone both threw their final pitches as a Yankee that inning. Here’s the entire sequence. The Yankees went on to win Game 4 by that 3-2 score, then they clinched the three-peat in Game 5.

The Yankees supposedly had interest in retaining Neagle immediately after the trade -- “(The Yankees) indicated they gave up good players and would like Denny long-term,” agent Barry Meister told Buster Olney following the trade -- but that interest apparently waned. They focused on Mike Mussina in free agency, understandably, and Neagle landed with the Rockies on a five-year contract worth $51M.

Neagle’s time in Colorado was a disaster. He had a 5.57 ERA in 370.1 innings from 2001-03 before needing elbow and shoulder surgeries. Neagle was ticketed for soliciting a prostitute in Nov. 2004 and the Rockies used it to void the final year of his contract under language in the universal player contract requiring players to “conform his personal conduct to the standards of good citizenship and good sportsmanship." (Neagle filed a grievance and the two sides later settled.)

Neagle made his final MLB appearance in July 2003 and finished his career with 124-92 record and a 4.24 ERA (105 ERA+) in 1,890.1 innings spanning 13 seasons. He won his only World Series with the Yankees in 2000 and was worth +0.3 WAR in pinstripes. Henson, Melian, Reith, and Yarnall combined for -1.3 WAR with the Reds, all by Reith. The others never suited up for Cincinnati. (Frank never played for the Yankees. He spent a year and a half in Triple-A, then left as a minor league free agent. He was out of baseball by 2003.)

6. Rapid fire thoughts. The Field of Dreams Game is back on. MLB announced the Yankees and White Sox are tentatively scheduled to play the event at the temporary (and already built) 8,000-seat ballpark in Iowa on Thursday, Aug. 12th of next season. They were supposed to play the game on Aug. 13th this year before the pandemic. The Yankees will be in Kansas City the day before the Field of Dreams Game, and the day after is an off-day, so the travel won’t be too bad. As someone who loves baseball games in usual places, I’m looking forward to it. Hopefully the Field of Dreams Game can actually be played next year … Korean shortstop Ha-Seong Kim (my write-up) and Japanese righty Kohei Arihara (my write-up) have been posted, report Jee-Ho Yoo and Jason Coskrey. Kim’s 30-day negotiating window closes on Dec. 25th, Arihara’s on Dec. 27th. Coskrey says Japanese righty Tomoyuki Sugano (my write-up) is still deciding whether to come to MLB but the Yomiuri Giants will post him if he requests it, and Yoo says the NC Dinos in Korea will post slugger Sung-Bum Na at some point, though he’s a DH type and I don’t think the Yankees will venture into that market. It’s a little early in the game and there haven’t been many rumors involving these players, Yankees or otherwise. For the Yankees, Sugano is the real prize as a projected mid-rotation starter with a chance to be more. He’d give a thin free agent pitching market a nice boost … And finally, rumblings that the Blue Jays want a new ballpark have begun, and once those start, they usually don’t end until the team gets a new stadium. Rogers Communications, the company that owns the team and their current ballpark, is looking into a plan to demolish Rogers Centre and build a new stadium on the same site. Most likely, they would build the new ballpark adjacent to the current building, then demolish Rogers Centre and turn it into retail and condos and whatnot, similar to what happened in St. Louis. Rogers Centre opened in 1989 -- it is the seventh oldest ballpark in baseball -- and, having been there a few times, I can tell you it is forgettable. It’s a perfectly functional facility to host sporting events that is otherwise drab and nondescript. It’ll be a few years until the Blue Jays get their new park but this is tangentially Yankees-related seeing how they’re division rivals, so I figured I’d mention it.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)