November 17th, 2020: ZiPS, Rule 5 Draft, Lindor, Hill

The Dominican Winter League season began Sunday and Domingo German struck out seven in the first four innings of a combined no-hitter in his first game action in over a year last night (Sunday’s game was postponed due to wet grounds). Here's some video. Miguel Andujar went 0-for-4 with a walk in that game. I'd link you to the box score but MLB.com is still neglecting their winter leagues page. Luis Gil allowed two runs in three innings in his outing Sunday. Here’s Gil striking out Mariners top prospect Julio Rodriguez. Yay baseball. You can watch all DWL games right here for $15. Now here are today’s thoughts.

(Sorry today’s post is shorter than usual, something came up yesterday and I couldn’t get to the last few things I wanted to add.)

1. 2021 ZiPS projections. Projections season has arrived and Dan Szymborski released his 2021 Yankees ZiPS projections late last week. On one hand, it’s a bummer they came out so early because they don’t include any new offseason additions. On the other hand, the early release allows us to take stock of what the Yankees have right now, before making any moves.

Anyway, here’s the obligatory “projections are not predictions, they are an attempt to estimate true talent level” reminder. ZiPS knows 2020 was a 60-game season with no minors, but still, we have to take this year’s projections with the biggest grain of salt ever. Here is the 2021 WAR projections graph:

A few thoughts on the projections. One, ZiPS is awfully optimistic about Luis Severino. He’s expected to return from Tommy John surgery at midseason -- ZiPS projects 113.2 innings, so a little more than a half-season’s workload -- and +2.2 WAR indicates zero hiccups. I don’t think that’s realistic. You have to expect some bumps in the road post-elbow reconstruction. I’d be thrilled with +1 WAR from Severino in 2021. +2.2 WAR is pretty much the best case scenario.

Two, Giancarlo Stanton at +3.5 WAR strikes me as optimistic as well, even with good health. The Yankees have made it clear they intend to treat Stanton as a full-time DH because of the injuries and +3.5 WAR as a DH is a ton. There have only been 43 instances of a full-time DH reaching +3.5 WAR in a single season in baseball history, and 14 of the 43 belong to Edgar Martinez and David Ortiz. That said, Stanton always mashes when he’s on the field …

… so he is absolutely the type of hitter who could put together a +3.5 WAR season at DH. At this point though, I think you have to assume Giancarlo will miss time with injury, which will cut into his production. You hope he doesn’t miss much time and can play, say, 130-140 games, but the last two seasons are reasons to be skeptical. When he’s healthy, Stanton is always great. He just hasn’t been healthy enough the last two years.

Three, ZiPS absolutely loves Gleyber Torres -- the system projected 40+ homers a year every year from 2020-24 before the pandemic -- and it still loves him despite his mediocre 2020. The system projects him with a 136 OPS+ next season, on par with Stanton (138 OPS+) and Aaron Judge (139 OPS+). The strikeout and swing-and-miss rates keep improving ...

• 2018: 25.5% strikeouts and 14.0% swinging strikes
• 2019: 21.4% strikeouts and 13.2% swinging strikes
• 2020: 17.5% strikeouts and 10.6% swinging strikes

… and the power is still in there, even if it didn’t show during this weird season. Gleyber is on the cusp of stardom. I mean, he’s already a two-time All-Star, but I mean no doubt about it stardom. ZiPS “isn’t programmed to go nuts about great (or awful) 2020 performances” and I wouldn't overreact to the defensive issues or lack of power. Torres is a stud.

Four, the rotation depth is pretty sketchy, not that we needed ZiPS to tell us that. Severino at +2.2 WAR? Mike King at +1.9 WAR? Jordan Montgomery at +2.8 WAR is at least within the realm of possibility but I’d bet the under. ZiPS has always loved Deivi Garcia, even during his prospect days, though that +2.3 WAR projection is still at the top end of what I’d expect next year given the likely workload limits (and growing pains). Gerrit Cole is the truth. The rest of the current rotation? Eh. When Montgomery is your second best bet, you need help. (Also, that second base projection. Yeesh.)

Five, ZiPS is now fully buying into Luke Voit. It projected a 116 OPS+ in 2019 and a 122 OPS+ in 2020. It’s a 134 OPS+ in 2021. By ZiPS standards, that’s an elite hitter. The system believes in the power increase -- Voit hit 22 homers in 234 plate appearances in 2020 after hitting 21 in 510 plate appearances in 2019 (due in part to the sports hernia) -- more than it worries about the decline in walk rate (13.9% in 2019 to 7.3% in 2020). I’d trade that walk rate decline for that home run rate increase eight days a week and twice on Sundays.

Six, here are the top projected strikeout rates in the organization (so not including Tommy Kahnle, who is listed with the Yankees ZiPS but is an unsigned free agent):

1. Aroldis Chapman: 40.8%
2. Chad Green: 34.5%
3. Gerrit Cole: 33.4%
4. Adam Ottavino: 32.3%

No surprises there. Ottavino, even during his poor 2020 that was really a perfectly fine 2020 with one disaster outing skewing the final numbers, had a 29.4% strikeout rate. Getting back over 30% is possible if not likely. Now to see who ranks fifth ...

5. Addison Russ: 28.8%

Huh. Russ came over in the David Hale trade and spent the summer at the alternate site. ZiPS has always been a fan and that projected strikeout rate is not out of line with his career rate (32.0% in the minors). Russ is Rule 5 Draft eligible this offseason and unless he completely bombed in Scranton after the trade, I think he’s going on the 40-man roster, and will be an up-and-down bullpen arm next year. Getting a useful depth piece for Hale would be neat.

And seven, I like to use ZiPS as a measure of depth at three levels: +1 WAR (serviceable player), +2 WAR (league average player), and +4 WAR (comfortably above-average player). Here’s how many players the Yankees have had at those levels the last few years (this includes players in the organization only, so the Yankees don’t get credit for DJ LeMahieu, James Paxton, etc. even though they’re included on their ZiPS page as unsigned free agents):

Better than I expected seeing how the offseason is three weeks old and nothing has happened yet. Last year’s ZiPS came out in mid January, after the Yankees made their major offseason moves (Cole), and two years ago they came out in mid February, after the Yankees went on their January free agent spree (LeMahieu, Ottavino, Zack Britton, etc.). Starting the winter with 19 +1 WAR players already in-house is pretty good.

(Those 27 +1 WAR players in 2018 are an outlier. I’ve been keeping tabs on this a few years now and I’ve never seen another team with 27 +1 WAR players. The 2019 Dodgers came closest with 24. The deepest teams are typically in the 20-22 range each year.)

Of course, projections are going to be less reliable than usual next year because of the short season and the lack of a minor league season, and I’ve already noted that a few projections seem overly optimistic to me (King, Severino, etc.). I’m not sure there’s really 19 true talent +1 WAR players in the organization right now. In what figures to be a depressed free agent market, the Yankees would do well to load up on high-end non-roster invitees.

2. The Padres and the Rule 5 Draft protection deadline. Friday is the deadline to set the 40-man roster for the Rule 5 Draft. Here’s what I wrote about the Rule 5 Draft last month. Long story short, I expect the Yankees to add Roansy Contreras, Yoendrys Gomez, Oswaldo Peraza, Addison Russ, and Alex Vizcaino to the 40-man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft. (They currently have four open 40-man spots with Ben Heller easily removable.)

Anyway, I bring this up for two reasons. The first is to say there is no reason to expect a big shocker prior to the deadline, like last year when the Yankees released Jacoby Ellsbury to clear 40-man space. We all kinda assumed Ellsbury would spend 2020 on the injured list again while the Yankees collected insurance. Instead, they released him and withheld his pay, claiming he received medical treatment without their permission. That was a shocker.

I can’t imagine anything like that will happen this year. Even if the Yankees are truly done with Gary Sanchez and ready to move on, they won’t release him now. They’ll keep him until at least the non-tender deadline and see whether they can work out a trade. I’d say the closest thing to a potential surprise would be releasing Domingo German following his domestic violence suspension, but I’ll need to see that happen to believe it. Should be a straightforward deadline.

The second reason I bring this up is the trade market. There are always a few minor trades prior to the Rule 5 Draft protection deadline as teams get their 40-man in order. They trade players to clear 40-man space for prospects and they trade prospects rather than leave them exposed in the Rule 5 Draft, and possibly lose them for nothing. The Yankees acquired random Yankee Dean Anna that way a few years ago. The Padres weren’t going to put him on their 40-man, the Yankees had space, so they made a small trade and got him without the Rule 5 Draft strings attached. A win-win.

It’s unlikely, but I wonder whether the Yankees could jump on another team’s fringe 40-man roster player this week. The Padres, coincidentally enough, stand out most as a potential trade partner. MLB.com says they have eight top 30 prospects eligible for the Rule 5 Draft with only two open 40-man spots. They can trim a little fat there, but not that much. San Diego seems like a candidate to swing a trade or two to clear 40-man space the next few days. A few Padres who could interest the Yankees:

RHP David Bednar

Bednar, 26, is a fastball/splitter reliever who spent most of the season at the alternate site and has ugly MLB numbers (14 runs in 17.1 innings). It’s a mid-to-upper-90s fastball with “late life and arm-side action that enable him to record whiffs inside the zone,” according to MLB.com, and the splitter is pretty good. In 2019, Bednar had a 2.95 ERA (2.49 FIP) with 35.8% strikeouts and 7.5% walks in 58 Double-A innings. His minor league numbers are really, really good. You could do a lot worse with your ninth or tenth reliever on the depth chart.

LHP Joey Lucchesi

This one was probably a stretch even before the Mike Clevinger Tommy John surgery news yesterday. Lucchesi is still pre-arbitration-eligible and has minor league options remaining, and rarely do teams give away starting pitching depth, but the 27-year-old has fallen so far down the depth chart that he spent all but 5.2 innings of 2020 at the alternate site. In 2019, Lucchesi had a 4.18 ERA (4.17 FIP) with 23.0% strikeouts and 8.2% walks in 163.2 innings. Not a star or anything, but a perfect serviceable MLB pitcher. A guy worth hanging onto if you’re a contender like San Diego is now. Also a guy worth calling about if you’re a potential trade partner and know they have a roster squeeze.

LHP Matt Strahm

With a projected $1.6M arbitration salary, I can’t help but wonder whether Strahm falls into the “guy who might get non-tendered that wouldn’t get non-tendered in a normal year” bucket. The Padres have more quality relievers than roster spots and cutting the guy who just had knee surgery and is due real money and has been good but not truly great (3.62 FIP and 24.0 K% as a reliever the last two years) isn’t the most insane thing in the world. Worth a call, at least.

My dream scenario would be acquiring Adrian Morejon, a former top 100 prospect who had a 31.6% strikeout rate as a 21-year-old this past season, but I’m not sure that’s realistic even with San Diego reportedly willing to part with him as a sweetener to unload Wil Myers’ contract last offseason. Would they really move Morejon for non-40-man roster prospects to clear 40-man space for someone else at the Rule 5 Draft protection deadline? Eh, doubt it.

Bednar and to a lesser extent Lucchesi and Strahm could be available this week, and since the Padres’ primary motivation would be clearing 40-man roster space, they would presumably be available for non-40-man prospects. The Yankees could pick up a depth arm without subtracting from their MLB roster. Bednar is interesting enough and there’s no such thing as too many optionable relievers with a swing-and-miss secondary pitch.

Among the other teams facing 40-man roster crunches this week are the Astros (Bryan Abreu?) and Cardinals (Daniel Ponce de Leon?). These pre-Rule 5 Draft protection deadline trades are rarely interesting, but this is not a normal offseason, and with so many non-tenders expected, I wonder if we’ll see a few recognizable names on the move should teams find a trade partner willing to pay the player’s projected salary.

3. Remembering a random Yankee: Sam Militello. By request, this week’s random Yankee is one of the early-1990s prospects who did not work out and become part of the dynasty core. Here's the random Yankee archive. You can find links back to everyone we've covered there.

Militello grew up in Tampa before the Yankees dominated the area -- they held Spring Training in Fort Lauderdale until 1993 -- and he had a record-setting draft year at the University of Tampa in 1990. He won 15 games with 182 strikeouts in 143.2 innings, all single-season school records to this day. Baseball America ranked Militello the top Division II prospect in the 1990 draft class, according to Don Banks.

"I'm not getting my hopes up," Militello told Banks prior to the draft. "If I go high, and the offer is good, I'll go pro. I think about it, but there's no one who can come in here and tell you, ‘You're going to go here.' They can't do it. If they do try to do that, you know they're crazy. So when that day comes, I'll deal with it.”

The Yankees selected Militello with their sixth round pick and he manhandled the lower minors. At age 20, he struck out 119 batters with a 1.22 ERA in 88.2 innings with Short Season Oneonta after the draft -- that’s 232.2 innings between college and pro ball in 1990 -- and the next season he pitched to a 1.57 ERA with 168 strikeouts in 149.1 innings at High-A and Double-A.

Prior to 1992, Baseball America ranked Militello the No. 10 prospect in the system. Here’s their scouting report (via Four Baggers and Foreclosures):

Militello skipped over Double-A and opened 1992 with Triple-A Columbus. He was again fantastic, throwing 141.1 innings with a 2.29 ERA and 152 strikeouts. The Yankees were terrible that year -- they finished 76-86 and 20 games out of a postseason spot -- so when Curt Young went down with a thigh injury in early August, they called up Militello to fill the rotation spot. He had a 1.76 ERA with 439 strikeouts in 379.1 minor league innings up to that point.

On Aug. 9th, Militello made his MLB debut against the Red Sox at Yankee Stadium, and his first career start was his best career start. He held Boston to one ground ball single in seven shutout innings, striking out five. Then-manager Buck Showalter removed Militello after 98 pitches and a 33-minute rain delay. Steve Farr finished the one-hitter without incident.

“It was a tough decision," Showalter told Jennifer Frey after the game, adding he was not going to let Militello pitch beyond the eighth inning anyway. "He was pitching well and I felt confident in him. But it wasn't worth the risk (after the rain delay)."

“If the rain wouldn't have come, I would have liked to give it a shot," Militello told Frey about going for a complete game one-hitter. At 22 years and 257 days, he was the youngest player to make his MLB debut as a starting pitcher for the Yankees since Dave Eiland did it at 22 years and 29 days in 1988.

Six days later Militello held a White Sox lineup that featured Tim Raines, Frank Thomas, and Robin Ventura to two runs in eight innings. Five days after that he limited the Athletics, the American League’s best team in 1992, to one run in 6.2 innings, but reliever John Habyan allowed all three inherited runners to score, spoiling Militello’s line. Militello had thrown 124 pitches and pulling him from the game was controversial at the time.

“I was more concerned with Sam and not getting him hurt. I didn't want him to get hurt physically or on the scoreboard,” Showalter told Jack Curry when asked why he didn’t let Militello face Jose Canseco a fourth time after he’d gone 0-for-3 with two strikeouts against him earlier in the game (Canseco hit a grand slam against Habyan).

Militello remained in the rotation the rest of the season and was quite good. He allowed two runs or fewer in five of his first eight starts and no more than four earned runs in each of those eight starts. A poor ninth and final start (six runs in 7.2 innings) raised his ERA from 2.92 to 3.45. That 3.45 ERA came with 42 strikeouts and 32 walks in 60 innings, which isn’t great.

Despite his success, the “organization was not especially high” on Militello, according to Jack O’Connell. He succeeded by fooling hitters with a bevy of breaking balls because his mid-80s fastball was underwhelming even for the era. College and minor league hitters had no chance against Militello. Big leaguers are not as forgiving, however.

The 1992-93 free agent pitching class was loaded and the Yankees went hard after David Cone and Greg Maddux, but missed out on both. They also came up empty with Doug Drabek and Jose Guzman. They eventually signed Jimmy Key and traded for Jim Abbott. With Mike Witt injured, those two were joined by Militello, Bob Wickman, and Scott Kamieniecki in the 1993 Opening Day rotation.

Militello started the third game of the regular season but wasn’t right. Cleveland punished him for five runs (four earned) in 2.2 innings. He complained of arm soreness after the game, so the Yankees skipped his next start, and had him make a tune-up relief appearance nine days later (two runs in 1.1 innings). Five days after that, Militello held the A’s to one run in five innings. It would be his final MLB appearance.

The arm soreness returned and a Triple-A rehab stint didn’t go well (22 runs in 33 innings), and Militello eventually underwent season-ending shoulder surgery. When he returned in 1994, he walked 19 batters in 3.2 minor league innings. Militello walked 18 batters in 10.1 innings the next year and 15 batters in 6.1 innings the year after that. Following surgery, he walked 52 batters in 20.1 minor league innings. Militello retired after the 1996 season. From Jeff Bradley:

Militello admitted he had a hard time convincing himself that his shoulder could possibly work properly again. Instead of focusing on getting hitters out with precision pitches, he was thinking about the inner workings of his shoulder.

In 69.1 innings as a Yankee, Militello pitched to a 3.89 ERA (4.63 FIP) with 47 strikeouts and 39 walks. He was very much a stats over scouting report prospect, the kind of prospect who would’ve had folks on the internet starting blogs and demanding a call-up had he pitched in the early-2000s rather than the early-1990s.

Following his playing career Militello did some minor league coaching with the (Devil) Rays (1997-98) and Cleveland (1999-2000) before joining the University of Tampa coaching staff in 2001. He’s still with the Spartans and they are a powerhouse, winning five Division II National Championships since 2006 (including 2019) and having a handful of players drafted each year.

4. Rapid fire thoughts. According to Jon Morosi, Cleveland is seeking three MLB ready or near MLB ready players in a Francisco Lindor trade. That’s not unreasonable, but the market dictates the cost, not Cleveland. They can’t afford him, every team knows that, and there might only be a handful of teams willing to take on his $20M-ish salary next year. That’s exactly what happened with Mookie Betts last offseason. The Red Sox had few suitors and were backed into a corner, and took what they could get. Cleveland would be smart to trade Lindor quickly (to the Yankees, preferably), before teams spend whatever money they have available on free agents … Rich Hill, 41 in March, told Rob Bradford he hopes to pitch for a contender and near his home in Massachusetts next year. The Red Sox stink and we don’t know what the deal will be with Toronto and the Canadian border next season, leaving the Mets and Yankees (and maybe the Phillies) as potential landing spots. Hill gets hurt every year like clockwork, but he’s also really good when healthy (3.03 ERA and 3.99 FIP in 38.2 innings in 2020). Sign him and plan on 50-75 quality innings. Anything more is gravy. The Twins gave Hill one year and $3M last winter. Does it make sense for the Yankees could give him $2M or so to be a No. 5 or 6 or 7 starter? He’s a super thoughtful and analytical guy, and he’s extremely fun to watch. I suspect this is something we don’t have to answer right now. Given his age and injury history, Hill could be sitting in free agency until after the New Year. He’s worth keeping in the back of your mind … And finally, it’s awesome the Marlins named Kim Ng their new general manager. Awesome and overdue. She is the first female general manager in a North American men’s sports league, and if some generic white dude with an Ivy League degree had her resume -- Ng has spent more time as a high-ranking executive (31 years) than Brian Cashman spent on planet Earth when he was promoted to Yankees general manager (30 years) -- he’d have been hired and fired a bunch of times already. Ng spent 1998-2001 as Cashman’s assistant general manager -- Cashman hired Jean Afterman to replace Ng after she left to join the Dodgers -- and has three World Series rings to show for it. Props to the Marlins and Derek Jeter. This is pretty cool.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)