November 3rd, 2020: Britton, LeMahieu, Kahnle, Kluber, Minor League Free Agents, Awards, Stanton

In case you missed it, my 2020-21 Offseason Plan went live yesterday. Hope you enjoyed it, or at least used it to help pass the time. Before we get to today's thoughts, let me just implore you to get out and vote today, if you haven't already. You can still register to vote in many states. It's not too late. Now let’s get to today’s thoughts.

1. Recent roster decisions. A few notable deadlines came and went the last few days and the Yankees’ decisions were mostly as expected. No big surprises at all. Here’s a recap of the recent moves and decisions, as announced by the Yankees.

Club options

The Yankees had three club option decisions this offseason because it turns out J.A. Happ’s vesting option was also a club option. I was wrong about that a few weeks ago and that’s why Happ was not on the MLBPA’s initial list of free agents. He was still technically a Yankee at the time. Anyway, the Yankees declined the $17M club option. There was no buyout.

Happ pitched well enough this year (3.47 ERA and 4.57 FIP) but he complained pretty much all season long -- he complained about having his starts skipped, about his vesting option, about not starting in the postseason, etc. -- and he’s 38 years old and has been trending downward the last few years. Even if the Yankees want to bring Happ back next season (I doubt it), there’s no chance they want him at $17M.

The Yankees also declined their $10M option for Brett Gardner and instead paid him a $2.5M buyout. The buyout has no impact on the 2021 luxury tax payroll. It was charged to 2020. My guess is we’re in for a few weeks of rumors (Gardner is talking to that team, the Yankees are talking to this free agent, etc.) before the two sides reunite later in the offseason. One year and $4M or $5M. Something along those lines. Gardner leaving doesn’t seem all that likely to me.

And finally, the Yankees did exercise their two-year club option for Zack Britton. He will make $13M in 2021 and $14M in 2022. Had the Yankees declined the club option, Britton had a $13M player option for next year. I think Britton would’ve picked up the player option given the Brad Hand decision, but I can’t say that with any certainty. Doesn’t really matter now. Britton is under contract for another two seasons.

The Britton decision is the most significant option decision and not just because it keeps him in pinstripes. It also indicates a willingness to spend in the future at a time when just about every team is expected to not just curb spending next season, but also limit salary obligations beyond 2021 because so much is still up the air. Are they playing 162 games next year? Can fans be in attendance? Will fans even show up if allowed? It is all uncertain.

And yet, the Yankees committed a sizable salary to a reliever -- a very good reliever, but a reliever nonetheless -- in 2022, and they did that even though very little money is coming off the books next year. Adam Ottavino’s $9M goes away and that’s it other than non-tenders. The Yankees could have declined Britton’s option knowing the worst case scenario for payroll is he picks up the player option but still comes off the books in a year. That’s not what happened though. They picked up the two-year club option and committed 2022 dollars. That’s a good sign, I think.

Qualifying offers

The Yankees made DJ LeMahieu the $18.9M qualifying offer prior to Sunday’s deadline, as expected, but they did not give one to Masahiro Tanaka. Tanaka was a maybe and it seems like any time a player is a maybe for the qualifying offer, he doesn’t get one. It’s a lot of money to gamble on a maybe, you know? Trevor Bauer, Kevin Gausman, J.T. Realmuto, George Springer, and Marcus Stroman were the other players to get a qualifying offer. Kevin Gausman, huh? Good for him. Everyone has until next Wednesday to accept or reject the qualifying offer.

Because they will pay luxury tax this year, the Yankees will only receive a compensation draft pick after the fourth round should LeMahieu sign elsewhere. It’s not much, but it is better than nothing, and the qualifying offer decision tells us the Yankees won’t completely cheap out this offseason. If money really is that tight, they wouldn’t risk LeMahieu accepting the $18.9M offer. It’s a low risk move, I know, but it’s not zero risk, and $18.9M is a significant sum of money. We’ve already seen a contending team place a great reliever on waivers in hopes of avoiding his $1M buyout. Any signs the Yankees won’t cheap out are welcome.

Kahnle elects free agency

So long, Tommy Tightpants. Tommy Kahnle elected free agency after being outrighted off the 40-man roster over the weekend. Rather than wait until the Dec. 2nd non-tender deadline, the Yankees dropped Kahnle now, so he gets a head start on free agency and the team opens a 40-man roster spot. The Yankees currently have 36 players on the 40-man.

All told, the Yankees received +4.4 WAR in the 2017 trade with the White Sox. Chicago received +0.5 WAR, though Blake Rutherford remains on their 40-man roster. He hit .265/.319/.365 (98 wRC+) in 118 Double-A games in 2019 and spent 2020 at their alternate site. Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranks Rutherford as the No. 11 prospect in their farm system.

2. An offseason of opportunity. If there were ever an offseason for the Yankees to zag when every other team zigs, this is it. Payrolls will come down around the league and I’m sure the Yankees are feeling the pandemic squeeze, but the fact remains they are the Yankees, and they still have more money than everyone else.

“Well, we’ll see,” Hal Steinbrenner said during a radio interview last month when asked about spending this winter (via Scott Thompson). “It depends on what kind of money is going to be required to be spent, based on what we look at and decide needs change, but there’s no doubt we sustained significant losses this year, moreso than any other team in baseball. It’s been a crazy year, but we’re just going to have to see what we really feel we need and what that’s going to cost, and we’ll go from there the way we do every year.”

The Yankees may have lost “moreso than any other team in baseball,” as Hal put it, but I reckon they also made more than any other team this year as well. Their revenue streams outpace everyone and the Yankee brand is unmatched in this sport. They are the most popular team in the land. Taking away 60% of their revenues hits much different than taking away 60% of, say, the Pirates’ revenues, you know?

Payrolls will come down next year and we’re already seeing owners pass their financial losses down to the players. Only a few club options were exercised last week, with teams walking away from productive players like Brad Hand ($10M), Charlie Morton ($15M), and Kolten Wong ($12.5M) despite reasonable prices. Dozens more will be non-tendered in December.

The free agent (and trade?) market will be flooded with talent and, when supply far outweighs demand, it means there will be bargains available. It’s an opportunity for the Yankees to flex their financial muscles and outbid other teams for players simply by offering market value, or maybe even 75% of market value when everyone else is offering 60%.

This applies to established big leaguers -- I have to think there will be a lot of one-year contracts this offseason, which will only flood the other market again next offseason -- and also guys on minor league contracts. Offer a higher Triple-A salary and the Yankees can land themselves a better third catcher or seventh starter or extra reliever, you know?

Also, the opportunity to capitalize on the depressed market by offering fair market value extends off the field as well. Teams have laid off hundreds of employees in recent weeks, reports Evan Drellich (subs. req’d). There are so many smart, innovative people out there looking for work right now. This is a chance to beef up the front office, the analytics staff, the scouting and player development departments, so on and so forth.

After being approved as Mets owner last week, the first thing Steve Cohen did -- the very first thing -- was announce he is restoring employee salaries to pre-pandemic levels effective Nov. 1st. The Wilpons implemented salary reductions ranging from 5% to 30% earlier this year and Cohen immediately reversed them. The estimated cost to Cohen is about $7M, but it’s not a cost, it’s an investment. It improves morale, it helps retain employees, and it helps attract new employees. He’s making the Mets desirable. The Yankees can make themselves more desirable now.

(My pal R.J. Anderson recently wrote about baseball’s brain drain. Even before the pandemic, many smart people left the game for other industries because the pay is better, the working conditions are better, and there’s more job security. Make sure you check it out.)

The pandemic has hurt the bottom line of every business, some moreso than others, and the Yankees could easily cite their massive losses and trim payroll like every other MLB team this offseason. Or they could do the opposite, dip into their reserves, and improve their organization on and off the field. Not every team has the ability to do that this offseason. The circumstances are awful, no one is happy with the world right now, but the Yankees can make the best of a bad situation by helping themselves and a few others (the players they sign, the personnel they hire, etc.) at a time when most of MLB is crying poor. It’s an opportunity to stand out in a positive way.

3. Kluber as a reclamation project. As expected, the Rangers declined their $18M club option for two-time Cy Young winner Corey Kluber. This was not a Brad Hand/Kolten Wong situation, where a team walked away from a productive player at a reasonable price. Kluber has been neither good nor healthy in two years now. His last three seasons:

Kluber, 35 in April, missed all but one inning this season with a lat strain. Those can be season killers, as it was in Kluber’s case. Last year’s injuries were a bit flukier. Kluber was hit by a comebacker that broke his forearm in May, then he pulled an abdominal muscle during his minor league rehab assignment. Bad luck more than anything, really.

I am more worried about the lat strain than I am Kluber being susceptible to line drives to the forearm or abdominal strains. For what it’s worth, Jon Morosi reports Kluber has been cleared to resume throwing, so he’s going to have close to a normal offseason. He’s not out of the woods yet -- it’ll be a few weeks before he gets back on the mound -- but he’s making progress.

The Yankees need pitching this offseason, preferably two starters, and Kluber has a few connections to the Yankees. He and pitching coach Matt Blake worked together all those years in Cleveland, and Kluber trains at Eric Cressey’s facility in the offseason. The Yankees hired Cressey to oversee their strength and conditioning department last winter. (Kluber was part of the “Prohibition Baseball” group at Cressey’s facility during the shutdown.)

Kluber has pitched so little the last two years that it’s almost impossible to evaluate him. He threw five curveballs before getting hurt this year and they had their usual spin, and his fastball velocity was in line with last year, so I guess that’s good? Even if he were perfectly healthy the last two seasons, you’d expect some decline next year just based on his age.

Kluber is undoubtedly looking at a one-year “prove yourself” contract this winter. MLBTR and FanGraphs crowdsourcing peg him for a one-year deal at $12M. ESPN (subs. req’d) is at one year and $6M. Rick Porcello got one year and $10M last offseason. He was coming off a bad but healthy 2019. I feel like that’s Kluber’s upside. Maybe one team takes the plunge and goes to $12M, but I think his contract is more likely to be under $10M than over.

I am intrigued by Kluber as a bounceback candidate but there’s so much we don’t know about him. Is he healthy? How good is he even when healthy these days? Does he want to pitch in New York and Yankee Stadium as he tries to rebuild value, or would he rather go to a team in an easier division and a more pitcher friendly ballpark? The Yankees have to be a fit for Kluber as much as Kluber has to be a fit for them.

I will say this much: Kluber can’t be (or shouldn’t be, anyway) the top starter the Yankees add this winter. They shouldn’t sign Kluber to replace Masahiro Tanaka and expect him to be the No. 2 behind Gerrit Cole. Sign someone else and bring in Kluber as the second guy, the reclamation project with upside. Don’t count on him to be an impact pitcher because it doesn’t seem like he can be that at this point, two Cy Youngs be damned.

My guess is the Yankees will allocate their dollars very carefully this offseason and steer clear of Kluber unless he comes dirt cheap, no matter his relationship with Blake and Cressey. This isn’t a Troy Tulowitzki situation, where Kluber would come in on a zero risk league minimum contract. The Yankees have finite dollars to spend under the $210M luxury tax threshold and quite a few needs to address. Rolling the dice on Kluber is fine as long as he is not expected to be the solution to the rotation problems.

4. Minor league free agents. Chris Hilburn-Trenkle came through with the annual list of minor league free agents earlier this week. Only 422 players became minor league free agents this offseason -- it was 510 last year and 520 the year before -- only because so many players were released during the shutdown. Lots of guys who would’ve been free agents this offseason have been free agents for weeks now.

Anyway, here are the Yankees’ minor league free agents:

• Catchers: Kellin Deglan, Eduardo Navas, Wynston Sawyer, Josh Thole
• Infielders: Angel Aguilar, Matt Duffy, Welfrin Mateo
• Outfielders: Zack Granite, Rosell Herrera, Thomas Milone, Leonardo Molina
• Righties: Domingo Acevedo, Daniel Alvarez, Maiker Feliz, Dan Otero, Tony Zych
• Lefties: Fernando Abad, Luis Avilan, Ryan Buchter, Elvis Escobar, Anderson Severino

Not many prospects (or one-time prospects, I should say) at all. Molina signed for $1.3M back in 2013 and the Yankees pushed him very aggressively -- he was playing for Low-A Charleston as an 18-year-old -- and he just never hit. Career .228/.281/.331 (78 wRC+) in 410 minor league games, none above High-A. Severino (no relation to Luis) would touch 100 mph regularly but had no control (career 12.7% walks). He never made it above High-A either. It's been a few years since Acevedo had prospect shine.

The vast majority of the Yankees' minor league free agents are veteran journeymen who spend the season at the alternate site as depth players. Abad, Acevedo, Alvarez, Avilan, Buchter, Duffy, Granite, Herrera, Sawyer, Thole, and Zych spent all or part of the summer in Scranton. Otero signed a minor league deal over the winter but opted out of the season after failing to make the Opening Day roster in Summer Camp.

I know Alvarez has some fans in the organization -- he had a 2.31 ERA (2.74 FIP) with 31.4% strikeouts in 581 Double-A innings in 2019 -- so the Yankees may try to re-sign him. Same with Milone, a former Rays’ third round pick who hit .281/.353/.427 (130 wRC+) in 83 games split between High-A and Double-A in 2019. He has some tools and is still only 25. The Yankees signed him very early last offseason, suggesting they really like him. I could see him coming back too.

5. Remembering a random Yankee: Christian Parker. This week’s random Yankee comes by request and is a member of the “one start as a Yankee and done” club. Here's the random Yankee archive. You can find links back to everyone we've covered there.

The Expos selected Parker in the fourth round of the 1996 draft and the Yankees acquired him in Spring Training 2000 as the player to be named later in the Hideki Irabu trade, after he’d been passed over in the Rule 5 Draft  a few weeks earlier. The then-24-year-old had a breakout season in Double-A in 2000, throwing 204 innings with a 3.13 ERA and 147 strikeouts.

No pitcher has thrown more than 200 innings in a minor league season since Parker -- that's among all organizations, not just the Yankees -- and there's a good chance he will be the last person ever to do it given modern pitcher development. Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked Parker as the 20th best prospect in New York’s farm system following that 2000 season. Here’s a piece of their write-up:

(The) term "breakthrough" doesn't quite do justice to Parker's 2000 season, when he threw 40 consecutive scoreless innings in Double-A and led the minors in innings. His fastball shot up from 86-90 mph to 91-93, and he touched 93-94 mph every game. Parker already knew how to throw strikes, change speeds and mix his pitches, which also include a cut fastball, slider and changeup. After surrendering 11 homers in 89 Double-A innings in 1999, he permitted just eight in 204 innings last year.

The Yankees put Parker on the 40-man roster that offseason and he went to Spring Training as a long shot candidate to make the 2001 Opening Day roster. Adrian Hernandez and Randy Keisler had poor springs, however, allowing Parker to claim the fifth starter’s job despite never pitching above Double-A.

“This is what I wanted to do and has been my goal and the dream that I have had ever since as young as I can remember,” Parker told George King after being named the fifth starter behind Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, Mike Mussina, and Orlando Hernandez. “I am just glad to have the success that I have had … I am certainly proud to be part of (this rotation).”

Joe Torre told King: “In this situation, we are not asking for something he is not capable of doing. We are just asking him to pitch from the same mound he has always pitched on, it’s just in a different location … If he is going to have the opportunity to make this jump, I don’t think you can find a better situation because of the support around him.”

Parker made his MLB debut against the Blue Jays on April 6th and it was a disaster. He allowed a single to Shannon Stewart on his second pitch, a stolen base on his fourth pitch, and a Carlos Delgado two-run home run on his eighth pitch. The Blue Jays added two more runs in the third and five runs in the fourth (three charged to Parker) to turn the game into a blowout.

“Just down and away but not away enough, and he crushed it,” Parker told Buster Olney about the Delgado homer. “I never have doubted myself through all of this, even when I was coming out of the game … It no longer has to do with the fact that I made it. It's about what I need to do to stay.”

With his coaches at Notre Dame in attendance at Yankee Stadium, Parker was charged with seven runs on eight hits, including two homers, and one walk in three innings. He struck out one and also gave up three stolen bases. Parker retired only nine of the 18 batters he faced. “You know one thing: with this club, if you make a mistake, they're going to kill you,” Torre told Olney.

That would be Parker’s only MLB game. He was placed on what was then called the disabled list four days later with shoulder tendinitis, shoulder tendinitis that bothered him throughout Spring Training, Parker later admitted to Sweeny Murti. Parker suffered a setback during his rehab work in late April and eventually needed season-ending surgery to repair his rotator cuff.

It was not until April 2003 that Parker returned to the mound, and that was only a minor league rehab game with High-A Tampa. “I'm happy to be doing it again. It was a long haul. I feel good and healthy. It's nice to go out there and compete when it counts,” he told the Plainview Herald. Parker had a 4.37 ERA with 56 strikeouts and 56 walks in 142 minor league innings that year.

The Yankees released Parker after that 2003 season -- they also released him after 2002 and re-signed him to a minor league contract -- and he hooked on with the Expos. He allowed 26 runs in 29 Triple-A innings with the Expos in 2004 and 70 runs in 135.1 Double-A and Triple-A innings around a performance-enhancing drug suspension with the Rockies in 2005.

Parker never pitched again after that 2005 season. He is one of 11 pitchers whose Yankees career consists of one start and nothing else, and his seven runs allowed are the third most in that one start. Parker is one 207 players whose MLB career consists of one start and nothing else, though that includes several recent pitchers who could return to the show in the future.

6. Rapid fire thoughts. MLB and the BBWAA announced the finalists for 2020's major awards earlier this week. Gerrit Cole is not among the top three finishers for the AL Cy Young, which is at best a mild surprise, and DJ LeMahieu is in the top three for AL MVP. He's up again Jose Abreu and Jose Ramirez. I figured those two would get two of the top three spots. LeMahieu was up against Tim Anderson, Shane Bieber, Nelson Cruz, Luke Voit, and a few others for the third spot. The awards winners will be announced next week. I have no expectation of LeMahieu actually winning, but he is guaranteed to be the Yankees' highest finisher in the AL MVP voting since Aaron Judge was runner-up in 2017. LeMahieu finished fourth last year ... In what we can realistically call the least surprising news of the entire MLB offseason, Giancarlo Stanton did not opt out of his contract prior to Friday’s deadline. He would’ve left seven years and $218M on the table. The Marlins will cover $30M of that $218M and the Associated Press has the first breakdown of those payments that I’ve seen. Miami will send the Yankees a $5M payment on July 1st and October 1st in 2026, 2027, and 2028. Here are the real dollars the Yankees owe Stanton:

• 2021 (age 31): $29M
• 2022 (age 32): $29M
• 2023 (age 33): $32M
• 2024 (age 34): $32M
• 2025 (age 35): $32M
• 2026 (age 36): $19M
• 2027 (age 37): $15M
• 2028 (age 38): $0 (there’s a $10M buyout of his $25M club option)

Stanton carries a $22M luxury tax hit throughout his contract but the Marlins payments mean the Yankees’ portion of his actual salary tapers off the last few years of the deal, which figure to be the ugliest ... Bench coach Carlos Mendoza received a second interview with the Red Sox for their managerial opening, reports Jon Heyman. Mendoza was in the running for the Tigers job too, which went to A.J. Hinch. The 41-year-old Mendoza is seen as a rising star in the coaching ranks because he relates well to young players and knows analytics, and it feels like only a matter of time until he goes on to bigger things, similar to former third base coach Joe Espada leaving to become the Astros’ bench coach. Boston is the only team with a managerial opening at the moment, so if Mendoza doesn’t get that job, he’ll have to wait at least a year to interview again … And finally, the 2020 Winter Meetings have been canceled as an in-person event. MLB made the announcement late last week. The Winter Meetings will be held remotely. Because there will be no chance to meet face-to-face, I imagine that week will feel like business as unusual rather than the busiest week of the winter. Now those four days are just like every other offseason day, right? Bummer.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)