Thoughts following ALDS Game 4

The Yankees live to play another day. They outlasted the Rays in Game 4 last night to force a winner-take-all Game 5 tonight. If you didn't watch, the game was definitely closer than the 5-1 final score would lead you to believe. It wasn't until late that the Yankees started to pull away, and there were a few butt-clenching moments before that. Let's get to today's thoughts as Luke Voit predicts a victory in Game 5.

1. The pitching staff delivers. Realistically, there was almost no chance the Yankees could force a Game 5 without a shutdown pitching performance last night. They managed to outscore their own pitching staff in Wild Card Series Game 2 last week, but that's not a viable long-term strategy. The guys on the mound had to put up some zeroes.

Jordan Montgomery gave the Yankees exactly what they needed. To call his outing great would be a stretch, but I would've signed up for four innings of one-run ball in a heartbeat going into the game. I thought letting him face Randy Arozarena with two on and two outs in the third inning was madness, but it worked out. So did letting him face Kevin Kiermaier with two on and two outs in the fourth. This is how you locate, people:

Unlike Masahiro Tanaka in Game 3, Montgomery stayed out of the middle of the plate last night, and when you do that, you get empty swings (nine whiffs on 25 swings) and you get weak contact (86.6 mph average exit velocity on 10 balls in play). Those third and fourth inning jams were walk-related more than hard contact related.

"That was a big-time outing," Aaron Boone told Dan Martin. "He gave us just what we needed to get it to the back end of the pen and made some big pitches when he needed to most."

Boone stuck with Montgomery longer than I would have. Like I said, I thought letting him face Arozarena in the third inning was nuts -- that guy has wrecked the Yankees all year -- and I thought letting him face lefty masher Yandy Diaz earlier in the inning was crazy too. Boone likes to live dangerously. Or, rather, he doesn't trust most of his bullpen. Probably the latter.

"That worked out pretty ideally," Boone told Ken Davidoff. "... I was hopeful (Montgomery) could get two times through the lineup but anything he could give us early, we were going to take."

Montgomery limiting the Rays to one run after putting runners on second and third with no outs in the third inning was the biggest moment (or series of moments) in the game. It didn't just protect the lead, it kept the bullpen out of the game. A hit there and Montgomery is probably out of the game and the Yankees are into their sketchy middle relief. 'Twas huge.

The bullpen after Montgomery was fantastic and I had zero issues with Boone's approach. Chad Green threw the snot out of the ball and retired all six men he faced, and Zack Britton was warmed up and ready to go in the sixth. If Green ran into trouble, Britton was going to be in the game. That didn't happen and they were able to hold Britton back for the seventh.

Pulling Britton with two outs in the eighth seemed very much like a "let's save some bullets for tomorrow" move. Aroldis Chapman had not yet pitched in the series -- he'd made one appearance in the previous 12 days -- and I was fine bringing him in there. I would've been second guess city had it not worked out, of course. Fortunately it did.

Green threw 24 pitches, Britton threw 22, and Chapman threw 23. All three should be good to go tonight, though Green has pitched the last two days. I still bet he'll be available, even if only to escape a jam. Either way, Montgomery and the three relievers held the Rays to one run on three hits and four walks. They struck out 11. The stars of the show right there.

"We count on our bullpen all year and tonight they were great," Gleyber Torres told Dan Martin.

2. Quick thoughts on the offense. Don't have much to say about the offense. Getting just one run after loading the bases with no outs in the second inning definitely had "they're going to regret that" vibes, but Gleyber Torres hit a two-run homer to the third floor of the Western Metal Supply building in left field a few innings later, so no harm, no foul.

Aaron Judge went 0-for-4 with a walk last night -- he saw only 19 pitches in those five plate appearances, an uncharacteristically low total for him -- and is 3-for-27 (.111) in October. Two of those three hits were important homers, so that's cool, but Judge has had a rough postseason, for sure. Ken Singleton likes to say the type of outs a hitter is making will tell you when he's about to break out of a slump, and last night Judge struck out on six pitches in his first at-bat, rolled over on lefty Ryan Yarbrough's 2-0 changeup well off the plate in his second at-bat (75.9 mph exit velocity) ...

... and popped up in foul territory to the catcher in his third at-bat. He reached on an error by the third baseman on a well-struck ground ball (96.6 mph) in his fourth at-bat. It might've been an out had Mike Brosseau let shortstop Willy Adames field it (video). The Yankees need Judge to snap out of it and soon. (I guess "day-to-day" lineup decisions don't apply to non-catchers? I kid, I kid.)

No homer for Giancarlo Stanton but he did bang a double to left field. He's the first player in history with an extra-base hit in each of his team's first six postseason games. Also, Torres now has five career postseason homers. The only other Yankee who managed to do that prior to his 24th birthday is Mickey Mantle. 

“I never feel pressure," Torres told Dan Martin after hitting his home run last night. "I like to play with 40,000 people in the stands and it’s loud."

In other Mantle-related news, Brett Gardner played his 66th postseason game last night, moving him ahead of Mantle and into seventh place on the franchise's all-time list. Of course, all 65 of Mantle's postseason games were World Series games, which is insane. The 6-7-8-9 hitters went a combined 6-for-13 (.462) with three walks last night. Nice to be the team doing the beating with the bottom of the order for once. 

The Yankees have scored at least four runs in all six postseason games and at least five runs in five of six postseason games, and they've done it against the two best pitching teams in the American League (by ERA). When this team gets decent pitching -- not even great pitching, just decent -- they usually win. The offense has been that steady, even with Judge slumping and others going up and down (Luke Voit, Gio Urshela, etc.).

3. Cole on short rest. As expected, the Yankees will start Gerrit Cole on short rest tonight. How could they not? Their only other option is Deivi Garcia -- Garcia is the rare top young pitching prospect who is too good to trade or use, apparently -- who threw 27 pitches in Game 2. You can't start a rookie over your $324M ace, short rest or not.

Cole has never started a game on short rest, of course, but he says he's up for it, and who is anyone to say otherwise? The guy is nothing if not ultra-prepared and in tune with what he needs to do to be ready. Games like this are why you give a guy $324M. Sometimes players have to step outside their comfort zone and do things they never done before to win a title.

“I have spoken to a few guys who have done it before. It is not something that is sustainable for the whole season but the human body is certainly capable of doing it," Cole told George King. “We saw the Brewers ride CC (Sabathia) on that magical run (in 2008). It is what it is. You have to go out there and do your job. When the lights turn on it doesn’t matter if it is three, four, five, six, or seven days. You have to do your job."

Anecdotally, it seems fatigue shows up later in the game when a pitcher starts on short rest. He will come out looking like himself in the first inning, but begin to hit the wall earlier than usual. After, say, 80 pitches rather than 100. Something like that. That's what to watch with Cole tonight. Now how he starts, necessarily, but how quickly he begins to fade.

"I noticed in some of the times that I pitched on short rest that my pitches started to get flat a little quicker. All of a sudden, the snap on my slider wasn’t quite there and it became noticeable. It really did. You can tell and you know," David Cone told Brendan Kuty. "That’s when you really need to mix in some other pitches. Maybe his changeup becomes a big pitch for him (Friday) night. Maybe his less-used pitches might become something that he could go to, a different look here and there a second or third time through the order. It could really make a difference. Maybe it’s taking something off of his changeup or maybe it’s his knuckle curve, going with a little bit more finesse could be a key for him."

The Yankees seemingly prepared Cole for this short rest start with their (relatively) quick hook in Game 1. He threw 97 pitches in six innings and finished very well, and it appeared he had more in the tank, but the Yankees pulled him from the game, even with a one-run lead. Cole had thrown that few pitches in a start just once in the last two months.

Not much more to say about this, really. Cole on short rest is 100% the correct move in my opinion, not a single doubt it, and I'm confident he'll pitch well even though he's never done this before. After Games 2-3, all we could ask is having a chance to put this guy on the mound in Game 5, and the Yankees get that chance tonight.

4. Glasnow in Game 5. Surprisingly, the Rays will start Tyler Glasnow tonight, not Game 1 starter Blake Snell on short rest. Manager Kevin Cash indicated Snell would be the guy a day or two ago, but apparently they've shifted gears and decided to go with the more handsome pitcher. Glasnow threw 93 pitches in five innings in Game 2. He will be on two days rest tonight.

“I’m super boring and always say this, but just treat it like any other start," Glasnow told Juan Toribio. "To be honest, my preparation will be exactly the same. Go game plan with (pitching coach Kyle Snyder), but I’m confident and ready to pitch tomorrow.”

Today would be Glasnow's usual between-starts throw day, so it makes sense from that standpoint, and it seems to me Tampa is planning to use him as an opener. Glasnow said they "haven’t talked about (a number of) innings or anything" but I can't imagine he will make a full start. Send him out there for an inning or two against those big righty bats atop the lineup, then get into the bullpen (or Snell?).

“I’m sure that will kind of be an opener thing for them, and I’m sure they’ll bring in Snell too," Luke Voit told Toribio. "I mean, (Glasnow) has really good stuff, but we’ve seen him. We’ve got a good game plan against him and just got to get the runs early.”

Cash called tonight an "all hands on deck" game and, well, duh. Of course it is. I think Cash's ideal pitching plan looks something like this:

• Innings 1-2: Tyler Glasnow
• Innings 3-5 (maybe 6 too): Blake Snell
• Rest of the game: Match up with Nick Anderson, Diego Castillo, and Pete Fairbanks

Anderson is on the short list of the best relievers in baseball and we're going to see him at some point tonight. Even if the Yankees threaten to break it open early, in the second or third inning, Cash won't hesitate to go to Anderson to put out the fire. He threw two innings in Game 2 and you have to expect him to do the same tonight.

Tampa's bullpen is in okay shape. Anderson and Fairbanks are rested, but Castillo pitched twice in the last three days, Ryan Thompson threw 44 pitches as the opener last night, John Curtiss has thrown 66 high stress pitches in the last four days, and Aaron Slegers threw 31 pitches last night. Beyond those guys, there's rookie Shane McClanahan, swingman Trevor Richards, and lefty specialist Aaron Loup. That's it. Oliver Drake was taken off the roster with a flexor injury yesterday.

Decent chance every Yankees hitter will see four different pitchers in their four at-bats in Game 5, but, point is, run up those pitch counts if possible, especially on Glasnow and Snell. The Rays don't have many multiple innings options beyond them aside from Richards, who isn't good (5.91 ERA and 4.97 FIP in 2020) and was only added to the roster to replace Drake. If Glasnow and Snell get the Rays through five, they'll be in good shape. Anything less than that and it's advantage Yankees, I think.

The Rays do bullpen games better than anyone and they can really frustrate hitters. We've seen them plenty the last few years. That Glasnow and Snell figure to play prominent roles is a new wrinkle though, and they're going to be on short rest, which adds another layer of uncertainty. The same applies to Gerrit Cole! But multiple guys on short rest equals more opportunity for things to go haywire. I think that's a good thing for the Yankees.

5. Rapid fire thoughts. Kyle Higashioka had three great blocks on pitches in the dirt in one at-bat against Mike Zunino in the third inning (this one, this one, and this one). The Rays had runners on second and third with no outs and Jordan Montgomery threw 55-footers on back-to-back-to-back pitches. Higashioka blocked them all and didn't allow the runners to advance. Y'all know I'm a Gary Sanchez guy but props to Higashioka. Montgomery was teetering on the edge of disaster there and Higashioka bailed him out ... Aroldis Chapman entered with a three-run lead and four outs to go, and the Yankees added an insurance run in the bottom of the eighth. Just curious, but how big would the lead have to be for you to feel comfortable taking Chapman out and saving him for tonight? I think at least 10 runs. Maybe I could be talked into eight or nine, but a 10-run lead seems about right. It's a win or go home game and the safety net in the bullpen at that point was who, Adam Ottavino or Jonathan Holder? The lead would have to be awfully big to pull Chapman in that spot. Flying too close to the sun otherwise ... And finally, it's wild how Petco Park can play differently at different times of the day, isn't it? The ball flies early in the game, when the sun is still out and before it cools down. Then it gets dark and the marine layer rolls in, and you have to really lay into one to hit the ball out in the later innings. There have been 18 home runs hit this series and I count 13 in the first five innings and five in the last four innings. Small sample weirdness or evidence the marine layer knocks the ball down later at night? I thought this and this were gone off the bat last night. Instead, they stayed in the park. Pretty crazy. Gorgeous ballpark, no doubt, but I'm glad the Yankees don't have to play 81 games a year there.