Thoughts prior to ALDS Game 1

UPDATE: The Yankees have announced their ALDS roster. No. 1 has been updated below.

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The ALDS has finally arrived. It feels like the Yankees ousted Cleveland just yesterday, and it also feels like the Yankees haven't played in a month, somehow. Four days between series is an awful long time. Not complaining though. I'll take the rest whenever we can get it.

Here's what we know about the five games in five days ALDS schedule:

• Game 1: RHP Gerrit Cole vs. LHP Blake Snell (8pm ET on TBS)
• Game 2: TBA vs. RHP Tyler Glasnow (8pm on TBS)
• Game 3: TBA vs. RHP Charlie Morton (7pm on TBS)
• Game 4: TBA vs. TBA (7pm on TBS) (if necessary)
• Game 5: TBA vs. TBA (7pm on TBS) (if necessary)

Not surprisingly, MLB put the Yankees in prime time. Prime time on the East Coast means afternoon games on the West Coast, so prepare yourself for lots of talk about shadows and high skies and things like that. They have a real (but perhaps overstated) impact.

The Yankees eliminated Cleveland on Wednesday, traveled to San Diego on Thursday, had an off-day Friday, then worked out at Petco Park on Saturday and Sunday. The series will indeed follow the traditional 2-2-1 format, so the Yankees will bat first in Games 1, 2, and 5 and bat last in Games 4 and 5. Let's get to some pre-ALDS thoughts.

1. ALDS roster announced. The 28-man active ALDS roster was due at 10am PT today and the Yankees announced their squad soon thereafter. As expected, they added a long man for the longer series. Here is the ALDS roster:

Erik Kratz was dropped and Mike King was added. That's the only change from the Wild Card Series roster. I would have preferred Clarke Schmidt over King given his bat-missing potential, but King has more bullpen experience, and is a little more stretched out at this point as well. I don't expect to see him in anything other than mop-up duty.

Here is Tampa's ALDS lineup. Austin Meadows, who has been out since Sept. 17th because of an oblique issues, is on the active roster. He might be limited to DH and pinch-hitting duty though. We'll see. Otherwise the two rosters are as expected. No real surprises.

2. Regular season series. The regular season series between these two teams was very one-sided. The Yankees went 2-8 against the Rays and were outscored 47-34 in their 10 head-to-head games. In the other 50 regular season games, they were pretty even:

• Yankees vs. Not Rays: 31-19 (+58 run differential)
• Rays vs. Not Yankees: 32-18 (+47 run differential)

What does it mean? Eh, not much. Every year we're reminded what happens in the regular season doesn't predict the postseason. The 2007 Yankees are the best example. They went 6-0 against Cleveland in the regular season and outscored them 49-17. They then lost to them in the ALDS in four games. Total dominance, then splat. October is a fresh start.

"We’re clearly the underdog now," Aaron Boone jokingly told Bryan Hoch last week. "They’re the big bad No. 1 seed of the AL East."

I do think there's a mental component to the one-sided season series. I mean, how could there not be? It's human nature. The Rays are probably flying high and feeling confident. I know I would. The Yankees, meanwhile, surely feel like they have something to prove this series. Despite being the big bad Yankees, they have a chip on their shoulder.

That mental component is impossible to quantify and it could be a bad thing just as easily as a good thing. The Rays could be overly confident. The Yankees could be so eager to show the season series was a fluke that they squeeze sap out of their bats. A classic "see what happens and build a narrative around that" scenario.

I'm not really going anywhere with this. I just thought it was worth mentioning because the season series was so one-sided. If it had been a 5-5 split, or if one team had gone 6-4, no one would care. 8-2 is a different animal though. It's a capital-T Thing everyone has been asked about even though it doesn't necessarily have predictive value going into the ALDS.

"They won the division," Giancarlo Stanton told Randy Miller. "They’ve got that. Now’s there’s an opportunity to let them (have just) the division. The full bragging rights chance is here. So shirts and hats don't mean anything."

3. Bad blood. The Yankees and Rays don't like each other. The Rays certainly talk about the rivalry more than than the Yankees, but make no mistake, these two teams hate each other. I wrote a thing at CBS looking back at the history of their bad blood. It dates back to at least 2017, when Matt Andriese used Matt Holliday and Aaron Judge for target practice.

To make things ultra-awkward this week, the Yankees and Rays are staying at the same resort, and they share outdoor recreation space. MLB selected the hotel in advance as part of the hub setup -- the Blue Jays and Cleveland would've been at the same exact hotel had they won the Wild Card Series -- so it's just a coincidence, but yeah. Awkward.

“I saw a few (Rays players over the weekend). Said, ‘Hey,’ and kept walking," Brett Gardner told Dan Martin. "Obviously, it’s not ideal, but it is the cards we have been dealt and I feel we got a group of guys who are very professional, It may not be ideal, but it is a big resort and we got a lot of space and so far it has been good."

Zack Britton added (via Martin): "I expect both teams to be professional at the hotel. There are families there. I don’t expect that to carry over away from the field. It is all about the competition on the field. Obviously we are two passionate teams so I don’t expect any issues in the hotel. If we see each other, a friendly nod and go about our business."

Tampa's entire thing is getting under the other team's skin and frustrating them. After Rays manager Kevin Cash made his not-so-subtle threat to target Yankees with his "whole damn stable full of guys that throw 98," the Rays starting wearing 98ers hats and shirts. They're not afraid to poke the bear. In fact, it's part of their game plan, not a hobby.

"With all the history that we’ve had the last couple years, it is what it is," Kevin Kiermaier told Marc Topkin. "I’ve said it many times: they don’t like us, we don’t like them, and it’s going to continue to stay that way. It’s going to be a very fun, energetic, exciting (series). And I know each team is going to want to try to put it to the opposition. I know that for a fact."  

I absolutely do not want the ALDS to devolve into brushbacks and the proverbial pitch that got away. Give me chippiness. I want bat flips and dugouts yelling at each other and all that. I don't want pitches at heads though. That's really dangerous, first and foremost, and the stakes are too high in October. I also worry it's inevitable at some point this week.

Back in 2003, the bad blood between the Yankees and Red Sox finally boiled over in Game 3 the ALCS. Pedro Martinez started throwing at Yankees when the Red Sox were trailing, Roger Clemens retaliated, and on and on it went until the benches cleared and Pedro threw then-72-year-old Don Zimmer to the ground. It was an ugly scene.

The current Yankees vs. Rays rivalry is nowhere close to the Yankees vs. Red Sox rivalry circa 2003, but it shows that when two teams don't like each other, things can escalate really quickly, even in the postseason. Hitters will get buzzed, bats will be flipped, and dugouts will yell. The team that best turns that into motivation will have an edge.

"They’re gonna do what they have to do to try to make us uncomfortable," hitting coach Marcus Thames told Dan Martin. "We have to do the same thing as hitters. If that’s their game plan, good luck to them. I don’t think they can pitch in for strikes. If we stick to our plan, our approach will be fine."

4. Tampa's whiffs. On paper, the Yankees have the advantage over the Rays every which way offensively. They strike out less, they walk more, they hit for more power. They're not as good a baserunning team, but I'll trade that for being better at everything else. The regular season head-to-head comparison (MLB ranks in parentheses):

Admit it, you're surprised the Yankees had the eighth lowest strikeout rate in baseball this season. I was. I figured they'd be near the very top of the league in walk rate, but I also thought they've have one of the 10 highest strikeout rates as well. Instead, eighth lowest, and fourth lowest among the 16 postseason teams.

Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton both missed extended time with injuries, so while the team strikeout rate would've been higher with good health, it still would've been lower than Tampa's. Two guys aren't bridging that gap. (The Yankees had a 19.5% strikeout rate when Judge and Stanton were healthy the final two weeks of the regular season.)

Tampa's single biggest weakness is their propensity to strike out. They were the only team to win the Wild Card Series despite a higher regular season strikeout rate than their opponent, and their 29.4% strikeout rate during that quick two-game series kinda makes you go hmmm because the Blue Jays pitching staff had a bottom 10 strikeout rate during the regular season.

The two pitching staffs posted almost identical strikeout (25.0% vs. 24.8%) and walk (7.6% vs. 7.9%) rates during the regular season, with the Rays (86.8 mph average exit velocity and .345 xwOBA) having an advantage in contact management (the Yankees were at 87.8 mph and .360 xwOBA). That's the difference between the two pitching staffs: contact quality.

The Yankees and their big exit velocity hitters may neutralize Tampa's contact management advantage to some degree. And, on the flip slide, the Rays offense's tendency to swing and miss can close the gap between the two staffs as well. That is especially true against big velocity. Against 95+ mph fastballs, the Rays were straight trash this year:

• AVG: .200 (28th in MLB; MLB average: .243)
• SLG: .341 (24th in MLB; MLB average: .404)
• xwOBA: .321 (27th in MLB; MLB average: .342)
• Whiffs-per-swing: 29.8% (30th in MLB; MLB average: 24.1%)

The Yankees can throw velocity at you, if nothing else. They averaged 93.5 mph with their fastballs this season, fifth highest among the 30 clubs and highest in the American League. The Rays will strike out a bunch, especially against velocity. That's a clear weakness the Yankees can attack and try to exploit. Avoiding contact is the name of the game.

5. ALDS x-factor: J.A. Happ. My Wild Card Series x-factor was Gleyber Torres, so I thank him for making me look smart. Gleyber went 5-for-7 with a homer and three walks against Cleveland. Reaching base eight times in two games is pretty, pretty good. Torres had a meh regular season and clearly had more to give in the postseason.

I usually go with position players as x-factors because they play every single game, but I'm going with Happ for the ALDS. He's going to start at some point this series -- kinda weird we still don't know who's starting Game 2, no? they've had four days to figure this out -- and the Yankees will need him to eat innings and spare the bullpen given the lack of off-days.

Happ finished the regular season very well, pitching to a 2.45 ERA (3.14 FIP) with a 36/5 K/BB in 36.2 innings in six starts after the Yankees avoided his vesting option I mean stopped skipping his starts and let him pitch every fifth day. Also, Happ didn't face the Rays this year. It's been a while since they've seen him and that's usually advantage pitcher.

The Rays were a very good lefty hitting team this season. They authored a .237/.340/.455 (121 wRC+) batting line against southpaws compared to .238/.324/.415 (105 wRC+) against righties. They hit a homer once every 32.0 plate appearances against righties and once every 21.1 plate appearances against lefties. That's bad news for Happ.

The hope is Happ's late regular season success carries over into the postseason -- he hasn't started a game in 10 days now, though I imagine he threw a bunch during one of the recent workout days -- and that not facing Tampa means the element of surprise is on his side. The more innings he throws, the more it helps the bullpen throughout the series.

In the best case scenario, the Yankees need to win two games started by someone other than Gerrit Cole, and Happ shoving would reduce the team's dependence on Deivi Garcia and Jordan Montgomery. That's a good thing. Happ going out and shutting the Rays down whenever he pitches would really swing the series in the Yankees' favor.

6. Relievers working three straight days. Given the series format, the question is not will the Yankees use a reliever three straight days at some point in the ALDS. The questions are how many guys will they use three straight days, and how effective will those guys be? A reliever(s) pitching three straight days feels inevitable. For all LDS (and LCS) teams.

"One of my first thoughts was that the depth of the rosters is going to play a factor," Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch. "In this series, and if we’re able to get on to the next series where it’s seven games in a row, you’re going to have to lean on your 12th, 13th, and 14th pitchers for big outs. We’ll try to strike that balance as best we can."

The Yankees used a reliever three straight days once this season. Chad Green did it from Sept. 2nd to Sept. 4th only because the Yankees were in the middle of a 13 games in 10 days stretch and the bullpen was taxed. Green pitched well all three days and kept his pitch count low (31 total pitches), but got bombed next time out on Sept. 7th (four runs and one out).

Last year the Yankees used a reliever three straight days zero times in the regular season. They did it in the ALCS though. Tommy Kahnle pitched in Games 4-6 -- Game 4 was rained out and Games 4-7 would've been played on four straight days -- and clearly was not sharp in Game 6. He allowed a run on a walk, a stolen base, and a single.

The Yankees go to great lengths to avoid using their relievers three straight days during the regular season so they can be fresh during the postseason, though it's fair to ask whether that sets them up for failure in October. They're asking them to do something they haven't been conditioned to do, you know? In the most important games of the year, no less.

Need to feel better? Look at the Padres. They essentially bullpened the entire Wild Card Series because Dinelson Lamet and Mike Clevinger are hurt, and because Chris Paddack and Zack Davies had short starts in Game 1 and 2. They didn't use a reliever three straight days all regular season then used almost their entire bullpen three straight days in the Wild Card Series, and threw a nine-pitcher shutout in Game 3. Adrenaline is a hell of a thing.

"It’s going to test the depth of your pitching staff, and I'm looking forward to it," Zack Britton told Hoch. "Guys are plenty capable going three, four days in a row. Five, it's not unheard of. It's just about us being efficient with our pitches, getting early contact or not nibbling and falling into deep counts."

The no in-series off-days format was announced in September and every team is dealing with it, so it's not like the Yankees are at an unfair disadvantage. I'm just a little concerned about what this means for everyone's effectiveness when it comes time to pitching a third straight day, because it's going to happen. This being the Yankees' thinnest bullpen in years doesn't help matters.

“It’s not the same for every game," Boone told Hoch. "If a guy comes in and gets two outs on seven pitches, maybe that’s different than where he comes in, gets an out and pitches another inning. All of those things will be baked in. I know our guys will do everything they can to be ready and prepare themselves. I know our guys will want the ball.” 

7. Petco Park. The Yankees have not played a series in Petco Park since 2016. Their three starting pitchers that series: Nathan Eovaldi, Ivan Nova, and Chad Green. Conor Mullee and Anthony Swarzak pitched in the first game. Rob Refsnyder played right field in the second game. Mark Teixeira hit his 400th career homer in the third game. It's been a while.

"It’s pretty warm out on the field," Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch. "It’s unique, but everything about this year is unique. We’ve had months now to adjust to all the weirdness and protocols that are 2020. We’re super excited to still be playing baseball and being one of the final teams to compete for a championship. In a lot of ways, it’s great being out here. Great ballpark, great city.” 

Petco Park is a pitcher's park. They brought the walls in a few years ago and it's still a pitcher's park, though not as extreme as it once was. Here is the outfield dimension comparison, with the longest dimension highlighted:

There's more to the way a ballpark plays than the dimensions. Petco Park is essentially on the water -- there's a four-lane road and a hotel between the ballpark and the ocean -- and the marine layer comes in at night and knocks balls down, similar to San Francisco. It takes a shot to hit the ball out at night.

Last year Petco Park suppressed homers to 96% the league average and run scoring to 93% the league average (I'm ignoring 2020 because of the sample size and regional play weirdness). Yankee Stadium, meanwhile, inflated homers to 112% the league average. The Trop was at 96%, so the Yankees are going from one extreme to the next.

The thing is, the Yankees don't need a small ballpark to hit homers. They certainly get their share of short porch cheapies -- their 395 ft. average homer distance was second shortest in baseball because the cheapies drag their average down -- but they were among the MLB leaders in 400 ft. homers, 425 ft. homers, 450 ft. homers, etc. Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Luke Voit, et al turn any park into a hitter's park.

Beyond the dinger potential, familiarity is important at a neutral site. The Rays have a bit of an advantage here thanks to former Padres Hunter Renfroe and Manuel Margot, otherwise not many players on either team have played in Petco Park. Judge has never roamed right field there. Brett Gardner hasn't chased a ball into the left field corner. Stuff like that.

"We’re going through the ballpark we’re playing in. The different nooks and crannies, and how balls bounce," Boone told Hoch. “It’s important to get our outfielders out there and see the different angles on the wall, how the ball bounces off the backstop. The infielders are taking ground balls on what looks like a really nice, quick infield. These are all things you try and get yourself more comfortable with."

Had this series been played in Minute Maid Park, it would've been no big deal. The Yankees have played there plenty. Experience is limited in Petco Park though, for both teams, and that makes the park something of an x-factor. A game -- the series -- could swing on a player not getting a good read on the ball or an outfielder getting an unfamiliar carom.

8. Rapid fire thoughts. Game 1 is not a literal must-win but it's a "they really need to win" game, I think. It's the only game the Yankees will have a distinct starting pitching advantage -- I say that with all due respect to Blake Snell -- and it's just really hard for me to see the Yankees beating the Rays three times in four games after losing a Gerrit Cole start. Is it possible? Of course. I'd rather the Yankees not try it though. Winning tonight feels pretty damn important ... You think they'll leave the Padres fan cutouts up at Petco Park? Probably not, right? Would be weird. Padres fans had a strong cutout game this year though. Lots of cute kids and good dogs. I hope they stay. Empty seats are such an eyesore ... And finally, if postseason odds are your thing, ZiPS has the Rays as clear favorites this series (57.7%), with Rays in four the most likely outcome (22.2%). Looking forward to the Yankees proving the COMPUTER NERDS wrong.