October 3rd, 2020: ALDS Roster, Cessa, Frazier, Voit, Mailbag

The Wild Card Series is over and MLB has three spicy LDS matchups coming up: Yankees vs. Rays, Astros vs. Athletics, and Dodgers vs. Padres. Three series featuring teams that do not like each other at all. MLB must be thrilled. The Yankees and Rays will begin their series Monday night (8pm ET on TBS). Here are some quick between-series thoughts.

1. ALDS roster adjustments. The 28-man ALDS roster must be submitted Monday morning. Aaron Boone said changes to the roster are "possible" and I expect the Yankees to tinker a bit. It's a best-of-five series, and because there are no in-series off-days, they may play five games in five days. Another pitcher could be added to the roster.

We know Gerrit Cole will start Game 1. Boone announced that, though he has not yet committed to Masahiro Tanaka in Game 2. That could mean one of three things:

1. They want to give Tanaka an extra day (he'd start Game 2 on normal rest).
2. They want to split up Cole and Tanaka as a possible way to spare the bullpen (they'll have longer leashes, probably).
3. They think J.A. Happ would be a better bullpen option in Game 5 after a Game 2 start (Game 5 would be the Game 2 starter's normal throw day). 

It's probably No. 1. The Yankees love love love to give Tanaka extra rest whenever possible and his Wild Card Series start was all sorts of weird because of the rain delays. Tanaka only threw 77 pitches in that start, but it was interrupted by the rain, and who knows how much he threw inside to stay warm during the delay. I think they're considering an extra day.

“Gerrit will go in Game 1 and then we’ll figure out the best way to maneuver and line our guys up," Boone told Dan Martin. We can expect Happ, Tanaka, and Deivi Garcia to start Games 2-4 in some order. Would the Yankees start Cole in Game 5? It would be his first ever start on short rest. The alternatives are Jordan Montgomery -- I'd take 3-4 innings of Cole on short rest over full rest Montgomery -- or a full-fledged bullpen game.

Either way, I think the Yankees will want another long man just in case they need to hold Montgomery back for Game 5. You can't count on Montgomery to be your long man in Games 1-4 and then start Game 5. The easiest way to open a roster spot is dropping Erik Kratz, who has a very limited role beyond Team Dad. Mike Ford can at least run into a mistake and play first base, which isn't nothing given Luke Voit's ongoing "foot stuff."

Dropping Kratz means no backup catcher whenever Gary Sanchez pinch-hits for Kyle Higashioka during Cole starts, but so be it. It's one game and only a few innings. Roll the dice. Replace Kratz with a long reliever. Now, who should that long reliever be? There are seven pitchers on the 12-man postseason taxi squad:

• One-inning righty: Brooks Kriske 
• Left-on-left specialists: Ryan Buchter and Tyler Lyons
• Multi-inning guys: Mike King, Clarke Schmidt, and Miguel Yajure
• Injured: James Paxton

Paxton is not even eligible to come off the 45-day injured list until after the ALDS, so he's a non-option. (He's not healthy yet anyway.) You could argue Buchter or Lyons would help in the ALDS given all those lefty bats in Tampa's lineup, but we'll get to that in a bit. For now I want to focus on another long man. Innings are the priority right now.

We're down to King, Schmidt, and Yajure but it's really King or Schmidt. Yajure is essentially the 40th man in the 40-man postseason pool. The case for King is that he was on the MLB roster nearly all year and has a good amount of bullpen experience. Schmidt doesn't and his big league experience in general is much more limited. King is the veteran, so to speak.

The case for Schmidt is that he has greater upside, especially when it comes to missing bats. Schmidt didn't exactly wow in his limited MLB time (five runs in 6.1 innings) but he can spin the crap out of his breaking ball, and a bat-missing breaking ball could go a long way against the Rays. Their offense's regular season ranks:

• Strikeout rate: 26.9% (2nd highest in MLB)
• Swing-and-miss rate: 12.2% (8th highest in MLB)

The Rays will swing-and-miss a bunch and avoiding contact is the name of the game in the postseason. King relies heavily on his sinking two-seamer and that pitch is more conducive to ground balls than whiffs. I prefer no contact entirely and Schmidt has a better chance to miss bats than King. I'd go with Schmidt as the extra long reliever for that reason.

As for a lefty, a guy like Buchter or Lyons could be more useful than Nelson, the epitome of the "last man in the bullpen." The Rays are a matchup nightmare because they will pinch-hit for literally anyone, and the worst case scenario is having an weak lefty get stuck out there against a bunch of righties because of the three-batter minimum.

I think it's best to ignore handedness and take the most talented pitchers. The Rays make it so difficult to get the platoon advantage that I wouldn't even bother trying. Go with the best pitchers regardless of handedness. Also, carrying another lefty would require a 40-man roster move. The Yankees have an open spot, but they need it for Domingo German (his suspension ends after Game 1).

So, with the caveat that I don't know much about anything, this is what I expect the ALDS roster to look like:

Schmidt replaces Kratz and that's the only change from the Wild Card Series roster. Maybe it's King over Schmidt. Either way, I think the Yankees will add another long reliever type given the potential to play five games in five days. The Yankees rarely pinch-run or pinch-hit. They're able to sacrifice a position player for another pitcher.

2. Cessa's role. Is it possible Luis Cessa will take on greater responsibility in the ALDS? He threw two mop-up innings in Game 1 against Cleveland, which indicates he's way down the pecking order, but Adam Ottavino is out of the Circle of Trust and Jonathan Loaisiga didn't inspire much confidence with his Game 2 appearance.

I loved that Aaron Boone went to Zack Britton in the sixth inning in Game 2. That spot called for your best reliever. Doing that every single game in the ALDS won't be possible though. The lack of off-days will force other guys to pick up the slack. That's not just Loaisiga and Ottavino. Cessa and probably Jonathan Holder will have to get big outs at some point too.

“It’s going to be a lot different than in the past," Britton told James Wagner. “Hopefully we get some good length out of our starters and that way we can preserve some of the bullpen. But it’s going to be a challenge. All the teams are dealing with it.” 

Cessa has two things going for him. One, his platoon split is small. Since Opening Day 2019 he's held righties to a .308 wOBA with a 21.4% strikeout rate and lefties to a .320 wOBA with a 20.4% strikeout rate. Holder and Ottavino are close to unusable against lefties. Cessa can hold his own. He's not great against lefties, but he can hold his own.

And two, Cessa's slider is a quality pitch. Since last year opponents are hitting .199 with a 39.8% whiffs per swing rate against it. The MLB averages are a .214 AVG and a 35.9% whiffs per swing rate. The slider is Cessa's moneymaker and he knows it. He throws close to 60% sliders these days. It's a good pitch and he leans on it heavily.

Against a Rays team that pinch-hits so much, Cessa might be the best option to get three key outs in the middle innings rather than trying to thread the needle with Holder, Loaisiga, or Ottavino. Do I like it? No, but Ottavino is seemingly out of the high-leverage picture and Holder and Loaisiga haven't done much to earn that level of responsibility.

To win the World Series, you have to get unexpected contributions along the way. Ottavino is persona non grata, and Loaisiga and Holder are at best rolls of the dice. So is Cessa! But his slider and the lack of a significant platoon split might make him the best option to pick up some important ALDS innings. He may be the unexpected contributor the bullpen needs.

“Whoever ends up holding the trophy at the end -- my vision of it -- is you’re going to have to lean on 10, 12, 13 pitchers more so than ever before," Boone told Wagner. "You’re not just going to be riding two starters twice a series and four main high-impact relievers. You’re going to have to -- in given games -- lean on the 12th, 13th man on a pitching staff to get important outs for you."

3. Frazier's ALDS role. Clint Frazier figures to play a bigger role in the ALDS than he did in the Wild Card Series simply because the Rays will start Blake Snell at some point in Games 1-3, and possibly Ryan Yarbrough in Game 4 (or 5). Cleveland did not have a lefty starter and their only two lefty relievers were Brad Hand and Oliver Perez.

Brett Gardner was great in the ALDS but I still don't think he should play against lefties. His numbers against lefties the last few years make that abundantly clear:

• 2020: .190/.261/.190 (30 wRC+) in 23 PA
• 2019: .212/.268/.386 (70 wRC+) in 142 PA
• 2018: .239/.309/.319 (67 wRC+) in 154 PA
• 2017: .209/.299/.291 (63 wRC+) in 169 PA

The last time Gardner managed even an 80 wRC+ against lefties was 2015. This is not a 60-game season fluke thing or small sample size noise. Gardner has been terrible against lefty pitchers for a long time and I wouldn't run him out there against a guy like Snell. To me, the Snell game is an obvious spot for Clint. Give him two or three at-bats then go to Gardner.

Tampa seems likely to carry veteran left-on-left guy Aaron Loup in their ALDS bullpen -- his job will be to get Gardner out, basically -- and they had rookie lefty Shane McClanahan in their bullpen too. MLB.com ranks him as the No. 99 prospect in the game but he's never pitched in the big leagues. The Rays carried him on the Wild Card Series roster anyway.

That might change in the ALDS only because the Yankees are so right-handed heavy. The Blue Jays are righty heavy too, but Cavan Biggio, Travis Shaw, and Rowdy Tellez are a bit more imposing than Gardner, Tyler Wade, and the Mikes (Ford and Tauchman). McClanahan could be swapped out for a righty (Trevor Richards to serve as a long man?).

I know Frazier slumped to close out the regular season, but Gardner hasn't hit southpaws in a half-decade now, and if you're not going to start Frazier over Gardner against a guy like Snell, I'm not quite sure what purpose he serves. Snell is healthy now and pitching as well as he has in a while. I'd take my shot with Clint whenever he's on the mound.

4. Rapid fire thoughts. There were some questions about this after he stumbled during a rundown and was removed for pinch-runner in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series, but Luke Voit is fine. "Luke was not happy coming out of the game, understandably ... It had nothing to do with (the rundown)," Aaron Boone told Dan Martin. I figured that was the case, but Voit has been dealing with his "foot stuff" for weeks now, so who knows. Glad to hear he's okay ... I have not seen this confirmed anywhere but I assume the LDS will follow the usual 2-2-1 format, meaning the Yankees will be the road team in Games 1, 2, and 5 and the home team in Games 3 and 4. They're playing at a neutral site but they would get to bat last as the home team. They have to follow the 2-2-1 format, right? No way the higher seed is the home team all five games ... MLB announced they have received approval to allow 11,500 fans into Globe Life Field in Texas for the NLCS and World Series. That's 28.5% capacity. Fans will be seated in socially distanced four-person pods throughout the stands and masks will be required, though consider me skeptical that will be strictly enforced. Point is, the bubble is not really a bubble. MLB is happy to allow several thousands fans be near each other in the middle of a pandemic because it makes them money. We're talking at most 14 games here. Such an insignificant sum of money in the grand scheme of things. Hopefully no one gets sick at the ballpark and takes this thing home into their community. Naked greed on MLB's part ... And finally, the Twins have now lost 18 consecutive postseason games. 18! The Yankees are responsible for 13 of those 18 losses and Minnesota's last postseason win was Game 1 of the 2004 ALDS. Johan Santana beat Mike Mussina that day. The 18-game postseason losing streak is the longest in North American pro sports history and 28 of the other 29 MLB teams have won a postseason game since the Twins last won one. The only team without a postseason win since then is the Mariners, who haven't been to the postseason since 2001. Assuming both teams have equals odds to win each game (not realistic but humor me), the odds of losing 18 straight games is 0.0000038147%, or one in 262,144. Incredible. Just incredible.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Mark asks: Bringing in Chad Green in game two was absolutely the right move. The pitch selection to Jose Ramirez was horrible. He got away with being cute with a first pitch curveball to steal a strike, but to go back to the curve on the second pitch was plain stupid.  Green’s fastball is elite, and it showed as he used it on the other batters he faced. My question is who called for the curveballs to Ramirez? Sanchez? Green? The bench?  

I went back and watched the video and unfortunately the ESPN broadcast was focused on Ramirez, so we can't see whether Green shook off to get to the curveball. My guess is Gary Sanchez called for the pitch, not the bench. The Yankees build the game plan and it's up to the catcher to stick to it. 

"He follows the game plan, he executes the game plan," Brian Cashman told Randy Miller following the 2019 ALCS. "... And when I say our pitching did a great job during that series, Gary is a big part of the reason why and how he called those games, and how he kept changing the signs. To make sure that we're protecting our pitch selections, I just thought he did a remarkable job. I don't think he gets the credit that he's due."

Ramirez hit .257 with a .635 SLG against fastballs this year and .255 with a .400 SLG against breaking balls, and that's great. The MLB average is .211 with a .361 SLG against breaking balls. Ramirez was a great breaking ball hitter this year but he was still much better against fastballs, so I can understand throwing him a curveball.

I think the biggest issue was location, not pitch selection. Sanchez wanted the curveball down and away -- seems like they were trying to get Ramirez to reach out and roll over on a pitch -- and Green instead threw it down and in, which is Ramirez's wheelhouse. As a lefty, his swing his gearing to golf pitches low in the zone into the right field corner. Here's where Sanchez set up and here's the pitch location:

Green missed similarly with the first pitch of the at-bat -- Sanchez wanted the curveball down and away and Green instead threw it down and in -- but Ramirez took it. Got away with that one and perhaps it was a sign Green didn't have good feel for the hook. It was his first pitch of the game though. Little too early to abandon a pitch, you know?

The Yankees won the game and will have plenty of rest before the ALDS, so this pitch won't have a lasting impact. It's not like the Yankees lost the game and then had a taxed bullpen in Game 3. The pitch selection looks bad because Ramirez ripped a double. If he rolled into a double play, no one would care. Hopefully Green doesn't miss his spot as much going forward. That's the big takeaway here. He missed by the entire width of the plate.

Julian asks: Considering how good the Yankees are at home and how bad they are at Tropicana Field, are the Yankees better off playing all 5 ALDS games at the neutral site or taking their chances with 3 games at the Trop and 2 at Yankee Stadium?

Let's do a little overly simplistic math. Since Opening Day 2018, the Yankees are 15-10 (.600) at home against the Rays and 9-14 (.391) at Tropicana Field. If we assume those are their true talent levels, the Yankees' odds in the traditional 2-2-1 ALDS format as the road team would be:

• Yankees in three: 9.2%
• Yankees in four: 20.8%
• Yankees in five: 15.1%

That gives the Yankees a 45.1% chance to win the series (9.2%+20.8%+15.1%) and the Rays a 54.9% chance to win the series (100%-45.1%). If we assume a true neutral site equals a 50/50 chance to win the series, then the Yankees are better off with the neutral site format. As good as they've been at home, their lack of success at the Trop really hurts.

Like I said though, this is an oversimplified look at things. Petco Park is a pitcher's park, not a neutral park, and that will have an effect on an offense-first team like the Yankees. Also, I went back to 2018 to get the winning percentages at Yankee Stadium and Tropicana Field, and what the 2018-19 Yankees did has no bearing on what the 2020 Yankees will do.

Personally, I'd rather play this series at a neutral site. To hell with the Trop. For starters, it's an ugly ballpark and I don't want to look at it. And second, the Yankees have had issues with guys getting hurt on the turf in recent years. I'd rather not have to think about that during a postseason series. Give me sunny San Diego.

(Shout out to the University of Minnesota, Twin Cities playoff probability calculator.)

Bill asks: Given the shortened season, how good was Cleveland's rotation when you adjust for their competition? How many times did they face a lineup similar to the Yankees? Did they beat up on much weaker teams? We always argue that the Central is the easiest division to win in the AL, was that more pronounced with a shorter season? Did the Yankees have a tougher schedule? And  if this becomes a permanent part of playoff baseball then I hope the 1 and 2 seeds are given homefield and then you seed the rest of the teams by record.

Three AL Central teams and four NL Central teams qualified for the postseason and they all lost in the Wild Card Round. The seven Central teams went a combined 2-14 and were outscored 80-44 in those 16 games. They were shut out five times with the Reds scoring zero (0) runs in 22 innings in their series loss to the Braves. Yeesh.

Baseball Prospectus has a catch-all pitching stat called Deserved Run Average (DRA) that does adjust for opponent quality. It's not available on a team level, but Shane Bieber had a 2.58 DRA, the best in MLB. Even when adjusting for the regional schedule, he was still the best pitcher in baseball this year. Carlos Carrasco was middle of the pack with a 4.04 DRA.

Cleveland played 26 games (43% of their schedule) against the Pirates, Tigers, and Royals. Those teams had the worst, third worst, and seventh worst records in MLB, respectively. Some numbers on the three regions:

• East: .257/.334/.439 (109 wRC+)
• Central: .233/.312/.396 (92 wRC+)
• West: .243/.319/.417 (99 wRC+)

There's a bit of a chicken or the egg thing going on here. Was the hitting in the Central so bad because the pitching was so good, or was the pitching so good because the hitting was so bad? The correct answer is a little of both but I think it's closer to the pitching being so good because the hitting was so bad. Of the bottom 12 teams in runs per game, nine were Central teams (the White Sox scored the fifth most runs per game).

The NL Central is impressively weak. The Cubs had the best run differential at +25 and the Brewers didn't spend a single day over .500 in 2020. They went 29-31 and were the No. 8 seed because they held the tiebreaker over the Giants. I feel like the Twins, White Sox, and Cleveland are legitimately good teams. Powerhouses? No, but clearly the three best teams in the region, and they all got bounced in the Wild Card Series.

I don't think we needed the Wild Card Series to tell us the Central was the weakest of the three regions, and going 2-14 in the first round is probably sample size weirdness more than an indication of true talent. I consider it a badge of honor that the Yankees scored 22 runs in two games against that Cleveland staff, but yeah, that staff probably wasn't really as good as the surface stats indicate.

Anthony asks: Do you find it concerning how often national MLB announcers complain about the sport? Wednesday was one of the most exciting days of baseball I can remember and multiple broadcasts complained about too many strikeouts, the pace of play, and time of the game. Shouldn't they be trying to sell the game or stir some excitement? Everybody does this. Michael Kay, Bob Costas, Joe Buck, Matt Vasgersian. Do you think MLB should do something about it?

Concerning isn't the right word but it definitely annoys me. It's my biggest pet peeve. There is so much exciting young talent in baseball today and the game is played at a higher level than ever before. There's so much to be excited about! Talk about it! Don't tell us why the game was better back in your day or highlight all the problems with the game.

Kay complains constantly about the pace of the game and I think baseball has a horrible pace these days. There's way too much time between pitches and balls in play, but I don't want to listen to an announcer harping on it day after day after day. I don't want to listen to same "teams don't care about strikeouts" nonsense for the tenth straight year either.

As a baseball fan, all I want is an announcer who loves the game and focuses on all the cool things that happen on the field. Announcers complaining about the game doesn't concern me, but it does annoy me, and maybe it should concern MLB because it's very off-putting. Tell me why I should be interested and love the sport, not what's wrong with it.

(The random Yankee series and mailbag are on hiatus during the postseason because the games take priority. Given the four-day gap between the Wild Card Series and the ALDS, I figured I would squeeze in a few mailbag questions. Send any random Yankee suggestions and mailbag questions to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. I can't promise to get to them anytime soon, but I'll look at them all eventually.)