Thoughts following Wild Card Series Game 1

Things went so well for the Yankees in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series last night that Josh Naylor went 4 for 4 with two doubles and a home run, and Cleveland still lost by nine. Gerrit Cole dominated, the offense was relentless, and the Yankees now have two chances to win one game to advance to the ALDS and the Southern California hub. Twelve more wins to glory. Let's get to the thoughts.

1. Cole's dominance. Man does it feel good to have a true ace in the postseason. Masahiro Tanaka is an October king but he doesn't dominate the same way Gerrit Cole did last night. Cole overwhelmed Cleveland, getting 12 misses on 34 swings against his fastball, a 35% rate on par with his work with the Astros last year.

Look at the locations of Cole's swings and misses:

Lots of swings and misses against fastballs not just in the strike zone, but over the heart of the plate. It takes a special fastball to do that. Cole's heater averaged 96.5 mph last night, topped out at 99.4 mph, and the 2,565 rpm average spin rate is about as good as it gets. Cleveland was overmatched, truly. Twenty-three misses on 56 total swings is insane (41%).

"To have Gerrit throw the ball the way he did, that was so big," Aaron Boone told Mike Vaccaro. "I thought he looked really sharp. He had all four pitches mixed in and he leaned on all of them."

Cole joins the great Bob Gibson as the only pitchers in history with 13 strikeouts in multiple postseason starts (he fanned 15 Rays in Game 2 of the ALDS last year). The 13 strikeouts are the second most in a postseason game in franchise history:

1. Roger Clemens, 2000 ALCS Game 4 vs. Mariners: 15 K (this game was incredible)
2. Gerrit Cole, 2020 Wild Card Series Game 1 vs. Cleveland: 13 K
3. Orlando Hernandez, 2000 World Series Game 3 vs. Mets: 12 K
4. Several tied with 11

Funny thing is, Cleveland hit Cole kinda hard in the second and third innings. Josh Naylor banged a double off the top of the high center field wall in the second and Roberto Perez followed with a 101.9 mph line drive right at Brett Gardner for the final out. At one point four of seven batters reached base spanning the second and third.

Following Jose Ramirez's double down the right field line to score Cleveland's first run, Cole retired 12 of the final 15 batters he faced, eight via strikeouts. He struck out two batters in six of his seven innings and was efficient too. Thirteen strikeouts in seven innings and only 105 pitches? Yes please. Cole's pitch count by inning: 13, 16, 18, 12, 15, 14, 17. B-e-a-utiful.

It's only the Wild Card Series, I know, but these are the games the Yankees signed Cole to win. Go into an opposing team's ballpark and beat their ace in Game 1. It's a weird year, so that Game 1 win came in an empty stadium in a best-of-three, and in a way that makes it even more impressive. Unusual circumstances and yet Cole remains excellent. What a performance.

“We needed to set a tone for the series," Cole told Vaccaro. "I’m obviously very thankful and humbled to take the ball and be in this position, to be able to deliver felt good. My son being here felt pretty good too. It was definitely a special night. Especially in this year, there’s a lot more baseball games to win. We’ll celebrate the good stuff and get after it (in Game 2)."

2. Beating Bieber. Look, I'm just some idiot who runs a blog, but every once in a while I say something that makes me look smart, so I'm going to live it up when I do. Yesterday I noted the plan of attack against Shane Bieber had to be sit offspeed and don't expand the zone because he doesn't throw his non-fastballs in the strike zone often, and make sure you punish any mistakes. Singles weren't going to be enough.

The Yankees did exactly that. Maybe they read the Patreon? DJ LeMahieu shot a single to right field to open the first inning and Bieber's first mistake came on his first pitch to Aaron Judge. Roberto Perez set up down and away and the fastball wound up middle-middle.

Good time for Judge's first home run since returning from the injured list, huh? Dead center field and 108.0 mph off the bat. Remember how bad Judge was in the 2017 ALDS? He was historically awful: 1-for-20 with 16 strikeouts. Goodness. In 22 postseason games since, Judge is hitting .293/.396/.622 with eight homers. Hell yes.

“That is why I got out of bed this morning, to hit that pitch," Judge told George King. “It is about trying to hunt those mistakes. He gets a lot of strikeouts on offspeed. Anytime you get something out over the plate it is a reaction and you try and get the barrel on it. That is what kind of happened there. DJ was able to get on and set the tone and I was trying to do the same thing."

Punishing mistakes was a consistent theme throughout the night. Luke Voit's double in the third inning scored a run and came on a little 3-1 slider (or cutter?) that spun right out over the plate:

In the fifth, Bieber again missed with his fastball. Perez wanted it down and away, it leaked middle-middle to Gleyber Torres, and he deposited it above the high wall in left center field for a two-run homer. It was a 2-2 pitch:

Bieber typically doesn't make many mistakes but he made a few last night, more than I think you could reasonably expect in a given game, and the Yankees made him pay every single time. Not with singles either. They banged those mistake pitches for extra bases. They also got a little fortunate, with two infield singles contributing to the two-run fourth inning.

The Yankees made Bieber pay for his mistakes but, more impressively, the quality of the at-bats were very high. Bieber faced 25 batters and 11 saw at least five pitches. Seven others saw four pitches. Bieber gets a ton -- a TON -- of empty swings on curveballs down below the zone, yet the Yankees consistently spit on the pitch and took it for a ball.

Some of those takes were so impressive -- the pitches were such high quality (like this one and this one) -- that it almost seemed like the Yankees knew what was coming. Maybe they did! Maybe Bieber was tipping his pitches or maybe they're stealing signs. Hitters missed with 51.5% of their swings against his curve this year. It was 39% last night (seven whiffs on 18 swings), the lowest rate in a Bieber start this season.

“I just wasn’t as aggressive as I wish I would’ve been with my offspeed stuff in the zone,” Bieber told Zack Meisel (subs. req'd). "And maybe some fastballs in, and just challenging these guys a little bit more. I felt like I fell behind quite a bit and forced myself into some bad situations and some bad counts." 

Props to the players for sticking to the game plan against Bieber and props to everyone who had a hand in putting that game plan together. The advance scouts, hitting coaches Marcus Thames and P.J. Pilittere, so on and so forth. The game plan was on point and the players made it happen, which is the hardest part against a guy like Bieber.

“We knew our at-bats had to be good," Brett Gardner told King. "We knew his stuff was going to be good. We did a really good job of laying off his breaking balls down in the zone. When he was in the zone I thought our guys did a really good job of putting pressure on him and making him pitch from the stretch.’’ 

Bieber never allowed more than three runs in any of his 12 regular season starts and he allowed 14 earned runs all year. He allowed seven last night. Bieber did not allow a single home run at home during the regular season. He allowed two last night. He allowed one first inning run in his 12 regular season starts, then two on one swing last night. Incredible. The best pitcher in the American League this season and the Yankees made him look like a 2019 Oriole.

3. Gleyber the x-factor. Sticking with the "sometimes I say something that makes me look smart" theme, how about x-factor Gleyber Torres? Torres has a disappointing regular season, hitting .243/.356/.368 (106 wRC+) with only three homers in 42 games. That was after 38 homers and a 125 wRC+ in 144 games last year.

Gleyber was a player we could look at and say "he's capable of more" and, last night, he answered the bell with four hits and a walk, including a two-run homer. Torres had four hits in his final seven regular season games, then had four last night in the postseason opener. He's a career .351/.413/.649 (181 wRC+) hitter in 15 postseason games, by the way.

"When GT is doing his thing, he’s one of the best baseball players in the game,’’ Aaron Judge told Dan Martin. "He’s 23 years old and comes up in big situations ... It’s fun to see him back on track and do his thing."

The third inning walk and fifth inning homer were Gleyber's most impressive at-bats. He fell behind in the count 0-2 both times -- Shane Bieber held hitters to a .092/.115/.184 batting line with a 75.6% strikeout rate after getting ahead 0-2 during the regular season -- but didn't chase out of the zone. Took four straight curveballs to the draw the walk, then two curves to get back to 2-2 before fouling away one fastball and going deep on the next.

Although his regular season was disappointing, Gleyber did cut his chase rate all the way down to 21.2% this year and he had 19 walks and 18 strikeouts in his final 28 games. He's making real strides with his plate discipline, which was good to start with. Last night that allowed him to turn one 0-2 count into a walk and another 0-2 count into a two-run homer, both against the presumptive AL Cy Young winner.

It takes a village to win the World Series. Judge, DJ LeMahieu,and Luke Voit can't do it all themselves, and Torres is an obvious candidate to provide impact in October. He did it last night, he's done it in the past, and I hope he keeps doing it in the future. The regular season is over. This is a clean slate, and Gleyber is off and running in October.

“(Brett Gardner) said even though we didn’t feel we did a really good job (during the regular season) -- and I feel the same way -- baseball gives you another opportunity," Torres told Martin. "This is the time to do the job. The regular season is over.”

4. He's gritty, he's gutty. I figured Brett Gardner would start over Clint Frazier last night (I totally nailed my lineup prediction too, not that it was too tough to predict). I didn't love it, and I didn't expect Gardner to do much against a dude like Shane Bieber, and that shows why I'm a dumb blogger and the Yankees are the Yankees.

“(It was) something we discussed a lot and thought about here a lot the last couple of days which way I wanted to go," Aaron Boone told Dan Martin. "Really feel good either way I would have gone. I just like the way (Gardner) has started to swing the last few weeks and what he brings defensively in this ballpark."

In Game 1, Gardner went 3-for-5 with an opposite field double to drive in a run and a two-run home run to center field to add insurance later in the game. He only saw 17 pitches in those five at-bats -- Gardner averaged 4.13 pitches per plate appearance during the regular season, his lowest rate since 2016 -- but when you're banging doubles and homers in October, who cares about pitch counts?

His only tough play defensively was Roberto Perez's liner to end the second inning with a runner on second, but it's still comforting to know Gardner is out there. I love Frazier, he's my guy, but I expect Gardner to be out there again tonight and I'm fine with it. He's swinging the bat as well as he has all year. Might as well ride it as long as you can.

"I always expect to be there. I always prepare, no matter what my role is," Gardner told Martin. "... Our season started today. I had no doubts (about myself). I felt good and healthy all season even though a few weeks ago my numbers were not good.” 

As for Kyle Higashioka, no, let's not make starting him over Gary Sanchez in non-Gerrit Cole starts a thing. Last night Higashioka went 1-for-5 with a strikeout and four ground balls, one of which went for an infield single, and he threw a ball into center field on a stole base attempt. Cole can have his personal catcher. Beyond that, no thanks.

5. Game 2 is Game 3. The Yankees should treat Game 2 tonight like it is Game 3 and I am confident they will. Close it out tonight, avoid a winner-take-all game with J.A. Happ on the mound, and enjoy the four days off before the ALDS.

What does "treat Game 2 like Game 3" mean, exactly? Of course the players will play with urgency, they've been through this before, but I mean Aaron Boone should not be shy with his bullpen. Using Zack Britton and Aroldis Chapman to get the final nine outs should be on the table, ditto going to Chad Green in the fifth or sixth, if necessary.

Cleveland acting manager Sandy Alomar had a real long leash with Shane Bieber last night -- I thought he should've been out after the fourth -- and perhaps that can be chalked up to his inexperience. I would bet against it happening tonight with Carlos Carrasco. With the season on the line, I think James Karinchak will be in there at the first sign of trouble.

The Yankees now have two chances to win one game and I feel very good with Masahiro Tanaka on the mound tonight. He's the man. I still want no part of a Game 3. Too many weird and unexpected ways a season can end in a winner-take-all game. Go all-out to close it out tonight -- whatever it takes -- then rest up for the ALDS.

6. Rapid fire thoughts. As noted earlier, the Yankees did a great job laying off the curveball when Shane Bieber threw it down below the zone. That's his money pitch. I'd also be remiss if I didn't point out Gio Urshela did this on one of those curveballs (video link):

I mean, what? That was a "WTF why are you swinging hey good work!" moment. Urshela got better this year and he finished the regular season with a top 20 strikeout rate (14.4%) and a top 50 swing-and-miss rate (8.4%). Getting the bat on the ball is his thing, even if it means digging a Shane Bieber curveball out of the dirt ... Aaron Hicks saw 25 pitches in his five plate appearances and drew two walks, and both times he came around to score. He also struck out twice, which is going to happen when you work deep counts against a guy like Bieber, but Hicksie's at-bats are consistently among the best on the team. There is just no place for a pitcher to hide when this offense is at its best ... I'm glad Giancarlo Stanton hit that home run last night, even if it was a garbage time homer on a batting practice fastball. He's been out of sorts since returning from the injured list and anything that could help get him going, I'll take. Stanton did see 24 pitches in his five plate appearances, so it wasn't like his four outs were quick at-bats, but the Yankees will need him to do damage to get through the postseason. "He had good swings, good recognition. To get some results at the end, hopefully that’s something that gets him rolling a bit, too," Aaron Boone told Dan Martin after the game ... And finally, Luis Cessa was charged with a run in his two mop-up innings but I don't really care about that. He got through those two innings relatively stress-free and that's the most important thing. The entire bullpen except Cessa is ready to go tonight. Like I said, Zack Britton and Aroldis Chapman getting nine outs to clinch the series has to be on the table. They're rested now and there will be plenty of time to rest before the ALDS.