Thoughts following the 2020 regular season

The 2020 regular season is over and it took all 60 games to determine the Yankees will go to Cleveland for the Wild Card Series. It'll be Gerrit Cole vs Shane Bieber in Game 1. Must-see television. Here are some end of season thoughts as DJ LeMahieu becomes the first player in modern history to win a batting title in each league.

1. Regular season thoughts. I can't see the regular season as anything other than a disappointment. It was joyless, I thought. The Yankees went 33-27 overall -- that's an 89-win pace -- and 19-21 in their final 40 games. Sub-.500 ball for two-thirds of the season. They needed the Orioles to beat the Blue Jays on the final day of the season to avoid the No. 8 seed. Geez.

The Yankees would not have made the postseason under the 10-team Wild Card Game format and they looked every bit the part of a team in contention for the No. 8 seed these last six weeks. The offense was inconsistent at best, the infield defense was mistake prone, the bullpen let too many winnable games slip away, and the Yankees never once rose to the occasion. Every challenge was met with a whimper.

"Momentum going into the postseason" is not really a thing. Teams that finish strong lose in the first round and teams that limp to the finish make deep postseason runs. It happens all the time. The 2000 Yankees are the gold standard here -- they went 3-15 in their last 18 games and were outscored by 89 runs (!) -- but even last year the Yankees lost four of their last five games, then swept the ALDS.

That said, the 2020 Yankees feel much more like the 2015 Yankees than the 2000 or 2019 Yankees to me. The 2015 Yankees started well, then went lifeless in August and just never recovered. They went 26-29 in their final 55 games and didn't put up a fight in the Wild Card Game. That's the vibe I get from this team. They're talented but the whole is less than the sum of the parts.

Absolutely nothing would surprise me this postseason. I could see everything clicking and the Yankees making a run to the World Series. I could also the Yankees scoring one run in two games and heading home before October rent is due. They've been a Jekyll and Hyde team all season. Why would the postseason be any different? The regular season was a major letdown. I hope October is different but I'd be lying if I said I'm confident in this group.

2. Waiting on the postseason roster. The Yankees will hold a workout at Progressive Field later today, at which point we should learn about the Wild Card Series roster and the Game 3 starter. The 40-man postseason player pool was due last Sunday and the Yankees always wait as long as possible to announce these things. We'll get it tomorrow morning, when the Wild Card Series active roster is due, I bet. (Here is Cleveland's 40-man postseason pool.)

I took a stab at predicting the 40-man postseason pool two weeks ago and we've learned a few things since then. First, Ben Heller is unavailable. He was placed on the 45-day injured list to clear a 40-man roster spot for Tyler Lyons last week. Heller has a nerve issue in his elbow and won't be available in the postseason. Not a huge loss -- Heller was what, maybe 10th on the bullpen depth chart? -- but it's a bummer he's dealing with another injury.

And second, Matt Duffy and Rob Brantly are in the 40-man postseason pool. We know that because they were working out at Yankee Stadium with the other taxi squad players over the weekend, according to Brendan Kuty. Miguel Andujar, Thairo Estrada, Mike Ford, and Jordy Mercer were also part of the group. Makes sense. Those four were obvious candidates for the 40-man postseason pool. Duffy and Brantly were not.

Interestingly, Brian Cashman recently said building the 40-man postseason pool was a challenge because some players opted out. They don't want to spend another month away from home, especially when there's no promise they'll be added to the active roster or voted a postseason share (players aren't paid in the postseason, they get postseason pool money only). From Randy Miller:

"We’ve even had offers for players to be in the alternate site in this taxi squad bubble moving forward and they’ve opted not to be a part of it because it could be six more weeks away from their family if you’re fortunate enough to advance the whole way and with no guarantee of either getting on (the big-league roster) or winning a prize at the end or getting voted a (playoffs) share. 

“Some of them said, ‘You know what? I’m not doing it.’ So when you have those conversations, they’re disappointing, but you get it at the same time and just move on.” 

I think we can safely assume the 28 players on the active roster in the regular season finale yesterday will be included in the 40-man postseason pool. That includes Clarke Schmidt, who came up for the spot start. Andujar, Brantly, Duffy, Estrada, Ford, and Mercer are six of the 12 taxi squad players. Kuty mentioned Estevan Florial was not among the players on the field over the weekend, which isn't too surprising, though I thought he'd be there.

The final 12 taxi squad spots will probably go to pitchers. Lyons, Albert Abreu, Luis Avilan, Brooks Kriske, and Miguel Yajure all spent time with the big league team this year and would seem to be obvious candidates for the taxi squad, but who knows? Maybe they opted out. Fernando Abad, Ryan Buchter, and Tony Zych are other taxi squad candidates. They didn't spend time in pinstripes this year but they all have MLB experience.

The Yankees carried five starters and nine relievers most of the season and I don't think you need 14 pitchers in a best-of-three series, even with no off-days. Jordan Montgomery said he is cool with pitching out of the bullpen in the postseason. The Yankees will potentially need a fifth starter should they advance, but, in the Wild Card Series, they won't need him in the rotation. Move him to the bullpen against Cleveland.

“I am here to help the team, so whatever I got to do to get outs for them, I will do,” Montgomery told George King over the weekend. “I definitely probably throw harder out of the pen, so I think I would be pretty good out of the pen, but I can get outs as a starter also. Whatever they want me to do. Really not up to me."

Shifting Montgomery to the bullpen and replacing Schmidt and Nick Nelson on the active roster with position players is the way to go. They'd be more useful than ninth and tenth relievers, especially since either J.A. Happ or (more likely) Deivi Garcia will be in the bullpen. Andujar's bat and Estrada's defensive versatility make the most sense. Andujar can pinch-hit and Estrada gives the Yankees an extra infielder so Tyler Wade is free to pinch-run.

My 28-man Wild Card Series roster looks like this:

With a 28-man active roster, might as well carry a third catcher in a short series. What else are the Yankees supposed to do with that spot? Another reliever? Another infielder? Ideally the 28th man wouldn't play much anyway. A third catcher allows you to pinch-run or pinch-hit for your starting catcher more liberally (Higashioka is going to catch Cole and I assume Sanchez will pinch-hit once Cole is out of the game).

Teams can change their 28-man active roster between series, so, if the Yankees advance, I would bet on them dropping a position player and carrying an extra pitcher. The extra arm could come in handy with no off-days. Let's not get too far ahead of ourselves though. The Yankees have to win the Wild Card Series first. The 28-man active roster and 12-man taxi squad will be announced soon, likely tomorrow.

3. Game 3 starter. We spent weeks anticipating a Wild Card Series matchup with the Twins and a day getting ready for the White Sox, so of course the Yankees will play Cleveland. Go figure. I'm planning to get into their squad a little more tomorrow. Right now, there are two things to know:

1. Their starting pitching is incredible.
2. Their offense is abysmal.

Cleveland's rotation managed a 3.17 ERA (3.64 FIP) with a 28.7% strikeout rate this year. As an entire staff! Patrick Corbin had a 3.25 ERA (3.49 FIP) with a 28.5% strikeout rate last year. Cleveland had an entire rotation of 2019 Patrick Corbins this year. Crazy. They'll be a handful. Gotta beat the best to be the best though. There's no easy path in October.

The offense though? Good gravy. Cleveland hit .228/.317/.372 (86 wRC+) as a team this season, which is more or less what Jake Bauers hit last year (.226/.312/.371). They averaged 4.13 runs per game and hit 59 home runs. Fifth fewest runs per game and third fewest homers. Their platoon split was small too:

• Cleveland vs. RHP: .227/.321/.369 (87 wRC+) with 23.8 K% and 11.4 BB%
• Cleveland vs. LHP: .229/.303/.380 (83 wRC+) with 20.5 K% and 8.3 BB%

The White Sox have a lineup that leans righty and offers a ton of power. They would've been a terrible -- terrible -- matchup for J.A. Happ. At a quick glance, there's no obvious matchup advantage to be gained by starting Happ over Deivi Garcia or vice versa. Cleveland is a tad better against righties but not so much that you have to alter your rotation plans. 

Happ is the safe pick as the Proven Veteran who's been there, done that, so I expect the Yankees to tab him to start Game 3. Would've been nice to get Garcia an appearance out of the bullpen at some point just to familiarize himself with the role, but so be it. The Yankees didn't really have the luxury. Cleveland's pitching is incredible. That offense against Gerrit Cole and Masahiro Tanaka though? There are worse matchups for the Yankees.

4. Chapman's splitter. Oh hey, Aroldis Chapman has a new pitch. He just casually broke out a splitter in Buffalo last week, then threw a few more against the Marlins this past weekend. They're the first splitters he's ever thrown in MLB. Here's video and here's the grip:

Chapman threw a changeup at times earlier in his career (I wrote about it years ago) but that is clearly a splitter grip, not a changeup grip. The extremely limited information we have on the splitter (he's thrown three) tells us it has good velocity (averaged 91.1 mph) and an ultra-slow spin rate (826 rpm). Low spin creates that tumbling downward action. (Masahiro Tanaka's splitter has a 1,598 rpm average spin rate, for reference.)

Those three splitters Chapman threw last week were the first splitters he's thrown in an MLB game, though he has worked on the pitch in the past. Way back in 2013, when he was still trying to make it work as a starter with the Reds, he threw a few splitters in Spring Training that apparently looked good. Reports indicate he threw a splitter in Cuba as well.

Chapman stands out most for his high-octane fastball but, as he's lost velocity with age, he began throwing his slider more often to compensate, and it's allowed him to remain elite. He's demonstrated the ability make adjustments and the splitter could be his next new weapon. It's also entirely possible he's just messing around late in the season.

I don't think that's the case though. The Yankees were not playing meaningless games the last few weeks and the splitter was really good in very limited looks. This wasn't Mariano Rivera throwing that one random changeup a year or David Robertson toying around with a sidearm delivery. Chapman's thrown a few splitters in consecutive outings now. Hmmm.

On one hand, I'm intrigued any time a pitcher throws a new pitch and I'm exciting to see how Chapman's splitter develops. Chapman with three pitches? Make him a starter next year! (I kid.) On the other hand, Chapman getting beat in the postseason on a new third pitch he's thrown only a few times in real games would be the icing on the crap cake that is 2020.

Three weeks ago I wrote Chapman should pitch every other day the rest of the season to accumulate innings. He pitched six times in 16 games after that, which is close enough. Chapman was great in those six games (5.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 12 K) and he finished the year with 11.2 innings. Not much, but he looked good these last few weeks, so I'm satisfied. 

We'll see whether the splitter really is a new weapon in the postseason, though I suspect we won't learn much about the pitch until next year. More importantly, Chapman looks ready to go. He was quite rusty early in the season following the long layoffs (the shutdown and his COVID-19 quarantine). Now he looks to be in midseason form at exactly the right time.

5. Rapid fire thoughts. The Yankees almost made it the entire season without a sacrifice bunt. Tyler Wade laid down their first and only sac bunt this past Saturday to ruin it. The Yankees tried a few sac bunts throughout the season (remember this?), but just one was successful. The Brewers, Rays, and Reds all went the entire season with zero sac bunts. The Yankees had 10 each of the last two years, the fewest in a 162-game in franchise history ... The Yankees used 43 different players this season. Here are the leaders and laggers in win probability added:

1. Gio Urshela: +1.53
2. Gerrit Cole: +1.23
3. Aaron Judge: +0.99
4. Aaron Hicks: +0.88
5. DJ LeMahieu: +0.82
...
39. Gary Sanchez: -0.62
40. Clarke Schmidt: -0.67
41. Adam Ottavino: -0.78
42. James Paxton: -0.82
43. Thairo Estrada: -0.82

Urshela was top 20 in WPA this season, just ahead of MVP candidates Jose Ramirez (+1.45) and Fernando Tatis Jr. (+1.47). Gio is so, so good. What a fun out of nowhere story. As for the laggers, geez, three of those five players were expected to play significant roles this season and instead they contributed negative wins. That's why the Yankees are the No. 5 seed and not hosting the Wild Card Series ... Gary Sanchez finished the regular season with a .159 BABIP. That is ninth lowest among 26,958 individual player seasons since 1918 (min. 170 plate appearances). Sanchez was horrible this year. Absolutely dreadful. It didn't help that he had 17 batted balls with a 100+ mph exit velocity go for outs (like this and this), the 18th most in baseball despite putting the 222nd most balls in play ... And finally, Aaron Hicks did indeed finish the season with more walks (41) than strikeouts (38). He's the first Yankee to do that since Jason Giambi in 2006 (min. 200 plate appearances). His 19.4% walk rate trailed only Juan Soto (20.9%) and Bryce Harper (20.1%) among qualified hitters. Also, Jonathan Holder had 14 strikeouts and 11 walks in 21.2 innings. He's the first Yankee with a sub-1.3 K/BB ratio in at least 20 innings since Bryan Mitchell in 2016 (11/12 K/BB in 25 innings). Holder walks quite the tightrope out there.

6. Blog update. Like last year, the regular Tuesday-Friday schedule is going out the window during the postseason. Too much important stuff happens to go that long between posts. I'll have reactions after each game and thoughts leading into the next game, etc., and I'll do my best to get each post up in a timely fashion. The random Yankee series and mailbag will be put on hiatus during the postseason because the games are more important. Thanks as always for the support. Here's hoping the Yankees have a long postseason run in them.