September 14th, 2020: Paxton, Roster Moves, Tauchman, Postseason, Chapman

Thanks to this weekend's sweep over the Orioles (and no thanks to the Mets), the Yankees go into tomorrow's three-game series opener with the Blue Jays a half-game back of second place in the AL East. The difference between second and third place is pretty big. It's the difference between a Wild Card Round meeting with the Athletics, Rays, or White Sox, or a meeting with the Twins. Give me second place and the Twins, please. Anyway, here are Tuesday morning's thoughts Monday night since the Yankees have an off-day today.

1. Paxton's setback. James Paxton has been up against the clock since the moment he went down with his flexor strain and his recent setback all but guarantees he will be a non-factor the rest of the season. Aaron Boone initially downplayed the setback -- "I don't think he's reinjured or anything. I think he's just a little sore from the volume of throwing," he said Thursday -- because that's what the Yankees do, though Boone stated the obvious Friday: Paxton is not returning as a starter.

"We may have no other option (than to use him in relief)," Boone told Dan Martin. "... It’s obviously going to be difficult at this point, having not gone on the mound, to build him up to a starter’s level. So we’ll see where the next couple days go and see if he’s able to build up to any kind of option for us. That may be in a smaller role than as a starter."

Paxton had not yet resumed throwing as of yesterday and I don't see how he can be ready in time for the postseason, even as a one-inning reliever. Even if he starts throwing today, he has to play catch a few times before throwing off a mound, then graduate to facing hitters in live batting practice or a simulated game. The regular season ends in 13 days. There's not enough time to go through all that and be game ready for October.

The best case scenario probably has Paxton returning for the ALDS, should the Yankees advance. That would give him closer to three weeks to get ready, but again, that assumes he resumes throwing very soon. Given the delicate nature of the injury, the fact he's already had to be shut down once, and the time crunch, it's best to assume Paxton is done for the year. If he returns at any point in the postseason, consider it a bonus.

Paxton's setback means the Yankees will have to rely on J.A. Happ and/or Jordan Montgomery more than they probably would like in October. Gerrit Cole and Masahiro Tanaka will be the Games 1 and 2 starters. That is pretty much set in stone. I'd go with Deivi Garcia in Game 3 but Happ has pitched well enough of late, and matchups could dictate going with a lefty. We can worry about that as we get closer to the end of the season.

No Paxton in the bullpen means the Yankees don't have a middle innings lefty. I doubt they would use Zack Britton (or Aroldis Chapman) to match up with a lefty in an important situation in the fifth or sixth inning. Boone removed righty specialist Adam Ottavino and went to Jonathan Holder to face the lefty hitting D.J. Stewart on Sunday and it worked, though that's not something I want to become a thing.

• Holder vs. LHB in 2020: 10-for-31 (.323) with 20.0 K% and 11.4 BB%
• Holder vs. LHB from 2019-20: .281/.361/.417 (.335 wOBA) and 24.1 K% and 10.2 BB%

Holder has a pretty good changeup and he's gutsy as hell, I'll give him that, but I can't say I am excited about him possibly facing the other team's top lefty hitters (Austin Meadows, Matt Olson, etc.) in October. Paxton could have filled that lefty matchup role. Now it might go to Holder by default, or Happ or Montgomery. Two weeks to figure it out.

As for the offseason, man, Paxton has had his free agency sabotaged every which way. Back surgery in February, a flexor strain in August and a setback in September, and the ongoing pandemic wrecking the game's finances. I feel for the guy. Paxton is certainly looking at a one-year prove yourself contract with a low base salary and maybe some incentives based on starts and innings at this point.

My guess is the Yankees will not pursue a reunion unless Paxton takes a deep discount. Payroll is likely coming down this winter -- I thought that even before the pandemic, no way the Yankees stay at $260M+ long-term, this was a one-year outlier until Tanaka (and Jacoby Ellsbury) come off the books -- and the Yankees have steered clear of the injured player market in recent years. They spend their money on healthy players.

For now, Paxton is likely done for the season, and even if not, he probably won't return until later in the postseason. He will have been away from game action for close to two months at that point and it's tough to count on someone like that in crucial postseason games. With a healthy Paxton, the Yankees could have marginalized Happ and Montgomery. Now they'll be needed to play important roles, either as the No. 4 starter or in the bullpen.

2. Upcoming roster moves. Help is on the way. Jonathan Loaisiga (non-COVID-19 illness) and Gio Urshela (bone spur in elbow) are expected to be activated tomorrow -- Loaisiga threw a bullpen session Sunday and Urshela got live at-bats in Scranton the last two days -- and Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton* could return later this week. Hooray for that.

“Those are big names and impact players we are talking about. There is a chance those guys will be back real soon and that is exciting," Aaron Boone told George King over the weekend. "In the meantime, just excited to see us get rolling again and start playing better baseball. But there is no question, those guys you are talking about and they are close definitely puts a smile on your face.’’ 

Four players returning from the injured list means the Yankees will have four roster moves to make soon. They made one Sunday evening: Clarke Schmidt was optioned back to the alternate site, the team announced. I was hoping he'd stick around and get a longer look, but I get it. He needs to pitch, not sit in the bullpen, and there haven't been many opportunities to use him. So it goes. 

These are the moves I'd make to open the other three roster spots in the order I'd make them:

1. Demote Mike Ford for Urshela.
2. Demote Thairo Estrada for Judge/Stanton.
3. Designate Erik Kratz for assignment for Judge/Stanton.

There is no greater indictment of the Yankees' organizational complacency than Ford still being on the roster. A bat-only first baseman hitting .135/.226/.270 (35 wRC+) -- his contact quality isn't great either (89.7 mph exit velocity and 37.0% hard-hit rate), so you can't even squint your eyes and say he's been unlucky -- is irredeemable. Ford should be first to go, clearly.

As bad as Tyler Wade has been (and he's been very bad), Thairo Estrada has been next level awful. He's hitting .175/.235/.234 (31 wRC+) and has the same number of strikeouts as Wade (19) in 28 fewer plate appearances (37.3 K% vs. 24.1 K%). Estrada is dead last on the Yankees with -0.82 WPA. He is 356th among the 382 hitters with at least 50 plate appearances in win probability added. Woof. Way to make the least of your limited playing time, Thairo.

Neither Estrada nor Wade is going to give you anything with the bat. Wade is the superior defender though and he's a much better runner. Yeah, he's made some boneheaded mistakes recently, but Thairo also did this, so he hasn't exactly wowed with his baserunning acumen either. Give me the faster guy whose speed can be leveraged as a pinch-runner.

Three catchers is overkill but it makes sense to keep Kratz around as long as possible just because you want depth at that position. Estrada and Ford can always be recalled. Once Kratz is gone, he might be gone for good. He's a fan favorite, but when you're picking between a 40-year-old journeyman and the suddenly hot Miguel Andujar for one roster spot, the choice is obvious.

The Yankees have an uncanny knack for losing a player to injury as soon as someone else comes back -- Urshela landed on the injured list right as Gleyber Torres returned -- but, with any luck, Judge, Stanton, and Urshela will replace Estrada, Ford, and Kratz within the next week or so. At that point everyone will have 7-10 days to get ready for the postseason.

"Some really important players for our team are on the horizon," Boone told Bryan Hoch over the weekend. "We're excited about getting them back and hopefully rounding out our team that much more."

* Remember when Stanton was going to miss 3-4 weeks? That's what Boone said Aug. 9th. This past Sunday marks five weeks. Par for the course with the Yankees and their injury messaging.

3. Tauchman vs. fastballs. I have been openly skeptical of Mike Tauchman since last year. Specifically, I've been skeptical of his offense. He's very good defensively, but I didn't buy last season's .277/.361/.504 (128 wRC+) batting line as anywhere close to his true talent level. The contact quality (exit velocity, etc.) didn't back it up.

It's fair to say exit velocity is not a good way to evaluate a hitter like Tauchman, who is more of a slap-hitting singles guy than a power bat, but it is undeniable that Tauchman has been overmatched by fastballs this season. I don't mean big velocity either. Look how late he was on this 92 mph fastball over the weekend (video link):

That's a center cut 92 mph fastball in a 2-0 count. That's as good a pitch to hit as you'll get in this sport, and Tauchman swung through it like it was 102 mph, not 92 mph. That's the kind of swing we saw from broken down Greg Bird toward the end of his time in pinstripes (remember this?). No explosiveness to that swing at all. Overmatched by 92 mph. Egads.

Tauchman's numbers against fastballs last season were very good compared to the league average. This year they are abysmal. Again, this is fastballs only:

The Statcast expected stats, which are based on exit velocity and launch angle and all that, suggest Tauchman performed over his head a bit against fastballs last season. This year they say he's been hitting the ball better than the results would lead you to believe, though the expected stats are still comfortably worse than the league average.

Tauchman has seen 159 fastballs in the strike zone this season and he's swung at 113 of them. The outcomes of those 113 swings: 59 fouls, 25 whiffs, and 29 balls in play. Only seven of those 29 balls in play went for base hits (four singles and three doubles). The other 22 became outs. Tauchman's batting averages against fastballs in different parts of the strike zone are comically bad:

Hitting .000 -- literally .000 -- against middle-middle fastballs is so bad that I'm almost impressed. It's only a 60-game season, but Tauchman has a chance to go the entire season without getting a hit on a fastball down the middle. That's because he swings through and fouls away so many fastballs. He is consistently beat by fastballs, above-average velocity not required.

In the year 2020, you have to be able to hit fastballs to have any shot of sticking around in this game. Defense and baserunning only go so far. The Yankees won't -- and shouldn't, I don't think -- cut bait on Tauchman anytime soon after this weird season, especially with Brett Gardner near the end of the line, but he has not built on last year's success. His leash heading into 2021 could be short.

4. Postseason format. At some point soon MLB and the MLBPA will announce plans for the postseason bubble(s). Jeff Passan says the two sides are still working through logistical issues, specifically accommodations for the players' families, though the bubble plans are pretty much set. Here are the details:

• Best-of-three Wild Card Rounds played at the higher seed's ballpark.
• AL Wild Card Round runs Tues., Sept. 29th to Thurs., Oct. 1st.
• NL Wild Card Round runs Weds., Sept. 30th to Fri., Oct. 2nd.
• ALDS and ALCS played in Southern California (Dodger Stadium and Petco Park).
• NLDS and NLCS played in Texas (Globe Life Field and Minute Maid Park).
• World Series played at Globe Life Field from Tues., Oct. 20th to Weds., Oct. 28th.

MLB doesn't want teams playing in their home ballparks, so they're sending AL teams to NL parks and NL teams to AL parks. The Rangers aren't going to make the postseason but the Astros will, hence the World Series in Arlington rather than Houston. (I suspect MLB doesn't want to "reward" Houston with the World Series after the sign-stealing scandal too.)

Those dates are not yet official but there's no reason to doubt Passan on this, and they tell us there will be fewer off-days in October. There is not enough time for the traditional 2-2-1 LDS and 2-3-2 LCS format. The NL gets an extra off-day before the Wild Card Round and that means the AL gets an extra off-day before the World Series. That's standard (they alternate years). Based on that, this is the potential AL postseason schedule:

• Regular season ends Sun., Sept. 27th and off-day on Mon., Sept. 28th
• Wild Card Round: Tues., Sept. 29th to Thurs., Oct. 1st (three games in three days)
• Off-day on Fri., Oct. 2nd
• ALDS: Sat., Oct. 3rd to Thurs., Oct. 8th (five games in six days)
• Off-day on Fri., Oct. 9th
• ALCS: Sat., Oct. 10th to Oct. 17th (seven games in eight days)
• Off-days on Sun., Oct. 18th and Mon., Oct. 19th.
• World Series: Tues., Oct. 20th to Weds., Oct. 28th (seven games in nine days)

The NL bracket would start one day later and have only one off-day between the NLCS and World Series. Unless MLB pushes the World Series back, something the league has refused to even consider during the pandemic, there is only enough time for one off-day per round in the LDS and LCS given Passan's reported dates. My guess is the off-day would come after Game 3 of the LDS and after Game 4 of the LCS and World Series, but we'll see.

One one hand, there will be no travel necessary in the bubble, so eliminating an off-day per round makes sense. And I like it. I've long wanted (but understand it will never happen) five games in five days in the LDS and seven games in seven days in the LCS and World Series. Force teams to use their entire roster and reward clubs with depth. I don't like that the postseason is so very different from the regular season in terms of rest and roster use.

On the other hand, removing one off-day per round really changes how teams can operate in October, and it's being dropped on them without warning. The Yankees intend to lean on their high-leverage reliever heavily in the postseason and one fewer off-day makes that plan much more difficult to execute. Every team has to deal with it and the pandemic has forced MLB to make things up as they go all season, but geez, that's a big change.

Nothing is official yet but the Yankees are well on their way to the postseason -- FanGraphs has their postseason odds at 99.5% and the magic number for a postseason berth is 10 -- and they have to get their rotation lined up at some point. Gerrit Cole and Masahiro Tanaka will start Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, so there's a three-day difference between their current schedule and Games 1 and 2 of the proposed Wild Card Round schedule.

Assuming the Yankees want them going into their first postseason start with an extra day, Cole and Tanaka will have to make their final regular season start with two extra days of rest next week. We're going to see some spot starters at some point. Probably this weekend in Boston because next week's games against the Blue Jays figure to be important. Getting the rotation lined up isn't a problem, necessarily, it's just something that has to be done.

Based on what we know right now, the postseason will be a little more condensed than usual, with one fewer off-day in the LDS and LCS. That will change how teams operate and manage their pitching, including the Yankees, who figure to lean heavily on their bullpen. The extra round and condensed schedule will reward depth and make the postseason a war of attrition as much as anything. 

5. Remembering a random Yankee: Eric Plunk. This week's random Yankee was traded for the same Hall of Famer twice. Here's the random Yankee archive. We've done enough of these now that it was time to throw the links in a spreadsheet rather than list every single one in each post.

The Yankees selected Plunk, a right-handed pitcher, out of a California high school in the fourth round of the 1981 draft. He was good in the minors, throwing 301.1 innings with a 2.81 ERA and 263 strikeouts with High-A Fort Lauderdale from 1983-84. Control problems -- Plunk walked 186 in those 301.1 innings -- prevented him from being a top prospect.

Following the 1984 season, the Yankees included Plunk in the Rickey Henderson trade with the Athletics. Henderson was a year away from free agency and the A's weren't going to be able to afford to re-sign him (or so they claim), so they traded him in Dec. 1984. The trade:

• Yankees receive: RHP Bert Bradley, OF Rickey Henderson, cash
• Athletics receive: LHP Tim Birtsas, RHP Jay Howell, OF Stan Javier, RHP Eric Plunk, RHP Jose Rijo

Howell was a reliable setup man in 1984 but the 19-year-old Rijo and 20-year-old Javier were the real headliners for Oakland. Plunk was the fourth or fifth piece in the trade. "This is an excellent opportunity for Rickey to be with the Yankees, to have more fame and fortune than he's had before," Henderson's agent, Richie Bry, told Murray Chass after the trade.

Henderson spent four and a half seasons in pinstripes and was fantastic, putting up +30.9 WAR and stealing a then-franchise record 326 bases (he's now second on the franchise all-time list behind Derek Jeter's 358 steals). Plunk, meanwhile, broke into the big leagues in 1986 and was so-so, pitching to a 5.06 ERA in 215.1 innings as a swingman from 1986-87.

Plunk moved to the bullpen full-time in 1988 and had a breakout year, throwing 78 innings with a 3.00 ERA and 79 strikeouts. He was even better in 1989 (2.20 ERA and 24 strikeouts in 28.2 innings) before it happened again: Plunk was traded for Henderson. The two sides were far apart on contract talks, so the fourth place Yankees sent Henderson back to the first place Athletics on June 21st. The full trade:

• Yankees receive: LHP Greg Cadaret, RHP Eric Plunk, OF Luis Polonia
• Athletics receive: OF Rickey Henderson

"I felt it was time," Henderson told Michael Martinez after waiving his no-trade clause. ''There were rumors that I'd be traded, and then they came to me and asked if I would take a  trade. Oakland was the only place I knew I'd like to go. I knew that if we didn't come to an agreement by the All-Star break I'd be a free agent anyway, and we had the opportunity to do it now, so I decided to go back home.''

"Starters came up, but they were impossible to obtain,'' Yankees senior vice president Syd Thrift told Martinez. ''Both of these young men (Cadaret and Plunk) have been starting pitchers before, but we'll let time be our ally.''

After using him as a reliever initially, the Yankees gave Plunk seven starts late in 1989 and he was fine, throwing 42 innings with a 4.07 ERA but nearly as many walks (26) as strikeouts (31). He was very good in relief in 1990 (2.72 ERA and 67 strikeouts in 72.2 innings) but not so much in 1991 (4.86 ERA and 65 strikeouts in 66.2 innings), and a late season stint in the rotation didn't go well either: 4.60 ERA and 38 strikeouts in 45 innings.

The Yankees had seen enough. Plunk, then 28, was released in Nov. 1991. He threw 260 innings with a 3.88 ERA in pinstripes. Plunk signed with the Indians and almost immediately became one of the top setup men in the game, throwing 355.1 innings with a 2.81 ERA and 356 strikeouts from 1992-96. He was the winning pitcher in the first ever game at what is now called Progressive Field, so that's a fun fact.

Plunk finished his career with the Brewers in 1999 and retired with a 3.82 ERA and 1,081 strikeouts in 1,151 innings. He never won a World Series, but a fourth round pick spending parts of 14 seasons in the show and racking up +13.5 WAR (and over $10M in contracts) is pretty, pretty good. Another fun fact: Henderson is the hitter Plunk faced second most often in his career (behind Cal Ripken Jr.). Henderson went 5-for-23 (.217) with 15 walks and four strikeouts (.526 OBP) against Plunk.

"(I thought) if this dude would retire, maybe I could stay in one place," Plunk jokingly told Anthony Castrovince about being traded for Henderson twice. "... At least I must have had some kind of value in the trades."

6. Rapid fire thoughts. Aroldis Chapman's appeal hearing was scheduled to be held today, Aaron Boone said yesterday. The ruling should be announced tomorrow. I didn't understand the three-game suspension -- I expected it to be longer -- so I have no sense of whether it could be reduced. The suspension won't be overturned completely, that never happens in these situations, so the Yankees will be without their closer for some or all of this week's three-game series with the Blue Jays ... And finally, some sad news to pass along: Mark Newman, who was an integral part of the player development system from 1989-2014, passed away over the weekend. He was 71. Here is the press release with quotes from various members of the organization. Newman helped the Yankees become a powerhouse in Latin America early in his tenure and he was a top farm system executive when everyone from Mariano Rivera to Derek Jeter to Robinson Cano to Gary Sanchez was coming up. It was time for a change when the Yankees ushered Newman into retirement a few years ago, but make no mistake, he was a vital behind-the-scenes contributor to the late-1990s dynasty, and his fingerprints are all over the 2020 roster as well.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)