September 1st, 2020: Cole, Garcia, Florial, Waiver Candidates, Yajure, Avilan

Am I the only one who found the Yankees losing on a walk-off home run in Yankee Stadium so absurd that I couldn't even be mad about it? Only in 2020. Sarah Langs says the Yankees were the first team to lose on a walk-off homer by a "visiting" player since 1899. How ridiculous. Anyway, here are my trade deadline thoughts, and here are my thoughts on a bunch of other stuff. Thanks as always for reading.

1. Cole's dingers. Gerrit Cole and Gary Sanchez are on the same plan this year: strikeouts and home runs only. Cole had a 2.75 ERA just two starts ago, I swear it, but that has since swelled to a 3.91 ERA after back-to-back poor starts. Nine runs on 13 hits and six walks in nine innings, including five home runs. It's now a 3.91 ERA with a 4.83 FIP.

Cole was susceptible to the long ball last year (1.23 HR/9 and 16.9 HR/FB%), it was pretty much the only way teams scored against him, and this season he's sporting a 2.35 HR/9 (22.6 HR/FB%) through eight starts. The home runs are a symptom of a larger problem: Cole is giving up much more hard contact. The Rays put 15 balls in play against Cole last night and 10 were 95 mph or better (67% hard-hit rate!), and eight were at 100 mph or better.

2019 Cole: 87.6 mph average exit velocity and 35.5% hard-hit rate
2020 Cole: 91.2 mph average exit velocity and 48.2% hard-hit rate

The whiffs-per-swing rate on Cole's fastball was an astronomical 37.6% last season. I would never expect him to do that again, but it's down to 25.3% this year, which is not much better than the 22.2% league average. There is no good reason Cole should miss bats at a rate roughly in line with the league average with this fastball. His velocity and spin rates are fine, but the empty swings aren't there.

One possible explanation: Cole's sudden inability to land his secondary pitches for strikes, specifically his curveball and slider. His zone rate with his breaking balls is down quite a bit from the last few seasons:

You don't want everything in the strike zone, obviously. You need breaking stuff to finish out of the zone to get swings and misses, but you also need to be in the zone enough so hitters respect the secondary stuff. When hitters know you can't land your secondaries for strikes, they can more easily sit on heaters in the zone, and that's when hard contact happens.

Cole's fastball in 2019: 90.1 mph average exit velocity and .248 xwOBA
Cole's fastball in 2020: 92.5 mph average exit velocity and .366 xwOBA

Last year Craig Edwards looked at Justin Verlander's home run problem and found he gave up a lot of homers because he throws the types of pitches that are often hit for home runs, meaning fastballs over the plate and up in the zone, and sliders in the zone. He has success that way because his stuff is so good, but occasionally hitters beat him, and homers follow. Cole is very similar. He pitches the same way with similar stuff.

This year though, seemingly every mistake is being hit hard, even if it's not leaving the park. Cole has had problems throwing his breaking balls for strikes, so when he's had to get back in the zone, he's had to lean on his fastball, and it makes him predictable. The breaking balls are not cooperating and the fastball is paying the price. I trust Cole to figure it out. He's so good and so dedicated to his craft. It doesn't make the homers any less frustrating though, and it doesn't make these games count any less in the standings. 

"The adjustment is either to throw a different pitch or move the sights or just be better," Cole told Brendan Kuty following last night's game. "We’re trying to throw a fastball away, you miss a couple inches off the plate. By and large, you’ve executed a fastball away. But the bottom line is, you do that four times and a guy is on first base. So there’s got to be an adjustment at some point there. I think mechanically, it was as effortless as it’s been this year so far. That’s part of one of the things Aaron (Boone) said he was so encouraged about it, same with Matt (Blake). Just how easy and fluid the ball was coming out. Just got to command the zone better, command the leverage better."

2. Deivi's debut. We spent the last few weeks pining for Clarke Schmidt and apparently all that did was motivate Deivi Garcia. Man was he impressive Sunday. One unearned run on four hits and zero walks in six innings against a good Mets lineup. He struck out six and the 16 balls he allowed in play had an average exit velocity of 83.8 mph. Deivi didn't let things snowball whenever the Mets had traffic.

"Nothing really seems to faze him. He was having fun tonight the whole time," Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch following the game. "You'd see him walk in after an inning like it was no big deal. He'd kind of smile and make some jokes. It was fun to watch him compete."

Two things stood out about Garcia's start. First, David Cone mentioned Deivi has shifted to the first base side of the pitching rubber. The YES Network put up a good side-by-side graphic during Sunday's game:

That's Sunday on the left and a Summer Camp intrasquad game on the right. In Summer Camp, Garcia was all the way on the third base side of the rubber. Now he's on the first base side. I went back and pulled up video from previous years. Here's Garcia at the 2019 Futures Game ...

... and here he is with High-A Tampa in 2018 ...

... and in both instances he's on the third base side of the rubber. The move over to the first base side is a new development. New as in about six weeks old. This is an adjustment he made at the alternate site in Scranton. Garcia throws across his body a bit -- that means his front foot doesn't land perfectly in line with the plate, it lands slightly on the third base side and he extends over that leg when he releases the ball -- and Cone explained the move to the first base side of the rubber makes it easier to pitch to both sides of the plate. On the third base side of the rubber, Garcia really has to work to pitch outside to righties and inside to lefties. Now he doesn't. I'd love to hear more about this adjustment and who suggested it.

And second, the raw stuff is so, so good. Garcia's velocity isn't eye-popping -- his fastball averaged 92.5 mph and topped out at 94.6 mph -- but hitters reacted to it like it was 98-99 mph even though the spin rate was ordinary (2,204 rpm). There has to be an unquantifiable deception component here. Garcia's a short little guy with a compact delivery, then bam, the ball is right on top of the hitter. Forget the numbers. Hitters will tell you everything you need to know and they told us Garcia's fastball plays higher than the velocity reading.

The secondary stuff is top notch too. The scouting reports have said Deivi has three quality secondary pitches since he learned his slider last year -- he only threw five sliders Sunday, probably because the Mets had a bunch of lefties in their lineup -- and we saw all three in his debut. The changeup fades away from lefties and the curveball is a hammer (video link):

That's a 2,900 rpm curveball right there. Garcia didn't hit 3,000 rpm with his curve Sunday like he has in the minors -- this curveball was 2,966 rpm but the camera angle stinks -- but what he had was plenty good enough. The average curveball spin rate this season is 2,529 rpm and only a few pitchers get to 2,900 rpm consistently. Weird thing though: Deivi throws his curve from a noticeably higher release point than his fastball. Here are his release points:

Huh. The difference is about six inches, on average. It's not an insignificant amount. Hitters have to be able to see that, no? An inch or two, eh, probably hard to see that given how quick the pitcher's arm moves. Six inches though? That's probably perceivable to the hitter. Garcia is a unknown at this point. Big league hitters have never seen him. I'm curious to see whether this release point difference matters once he goes through the league a few times.

Deivi was the 29th man Sunday and, by rule, he had to return to Scranton immediately after the game. The Yankees have another doubleheader Friday and I would bet the farm on Garcia getting the ball that day. The 10-day rule doesn't apply to the 29th man, he was so good Sunday, and he lines up perfectly to pitch that day. Garcia will be back Friday. I'm sure of it.

What happens after that? I have no idea, but James Paxton is hurt and the fifth starter's spot is vacant, and Garcia should just remain in the rotation. At the very least, he needs to be in the bullpen. The Yankees need help in the bullpen and there's no sense in wasting that arm in Scranton when you're fighting for a postseason spot. Garcia was great Sunday and I can't wait to see more.

"Very possible," Boone told George King when asked whether Garcia could play a larger role down the stretch. "A lot of times -- especially in championship runs -- sometimes you get contributions from unexpected places or sometimes from somebody coming up for the first time in their big league career and having an impact. Our game is littered with stories of people coming up and impacting September runs and things like that."

3. Florial's debut. Oh hey, Estevan Florial made his MLB debut this past weekend too. He was summoned as the 29th man for Friday's doubleheader, after Aaron Judge was placed on the injured list. Florial started the first game and went 1-for-3 with a solid single back up the middle, so he got his first MLB hit. That was pretty cool.

Florial also looked very much like a kid who has not played above High Class-A. He saw four Michael Wacha changeups in his first at-bat and swung and missed at three. His second at-bat was a good eight-pitch battle after falling behind in the count 0-2, but again, Florial swung and missed at three changeups. Pitch recognition is his glaring flaw and it was on display Sunday. He swung at every changeup like he read fastball.

More injuries are always possible with this team, so we may see Florial again at some point, but I can't imagine big league time is part of the plan this year. Sending him out there to get overmatched by MLB pitching could do real damage to his development. It sucks the only option is intrasquad games at the alternate site, but given where he is in his development, Scranton is the place for Florial. It was fun to see him for a day. I also hope we don't have to see him again until he's ready for the call-up.

"Obviously we are in a tough situation from a roster standpoint and having some injuries and having some needs right now," Aaron Boone told George King on Friday. "Estevan, since I have been here in Spring Training, has always performed. He is a super talented player and a guy with tremendous makeup."

4. Post-deadline targets. The trade deadline has come and gone but teams still have two weeks to add players before the postseason eligibility deadline (11:59pm ET on Sept. 15th). Waiver trades are no longer a thing, but last year teams got creative, and completed salary dump "trades" via waivers. That's how the Yankees picked up Cory Gearrin. They agreed to claim him ahead of time, so the Mariners put him on waivers and shed his salary.

I'm sure we'll see similar moves the next two weeks, though the shutdown and the financial damage it has done (and is still doing) has understandably made clubs wary of taking on salary, so the waiver claim market may not be as active last last season. (I count 22 waiver claims last August, up from 12 in 2018). Nevertheless, here are some possible waiver claim targets who could interest the Yankees, listed alphabetically:

• LHP Sean Doolittle, Nationals: Just back from a knee injury and has about $1.1M left on his deal. Would last place Washington actually sell though?
• RHP Yoshihisa Hirano, Mariners: He's a poor man's Tommy Kahnle as a righty splitter specialist who handles lefties. Owned another $270,000 or so. 
• LHP Derek Holland, Pirates: Miscast as a starter these days. He dominates lefties and is only owed another $170,000 or so the rest of the year.
• SS Jose Iglesias, Orioles: Owed roughly $500,000 the rest of the year and he's a better version of Jordy Mercer. Should be Plan A if Gleyber Torres has a setback.
• RHP Greg Holland, Royals: Still owed about $210,000 and he's enjoying a very good bounceback season. Fills an obvious complementary role in the bullpen.
• LHP Tony Watson, Giants: Zack Britton lite as a lefty ground ball guy. Still owed about $500,000, but his contract includes a bunch of incentives he may hit.

Jonathan Schoop is another possibility, though he still has about $1M coming to him, and he's not as natural a fit as Iglesias because he can't play shortstop. Maybe the Giants would unload Kevin Gausman in a waiver claim? He's owed another $1.5M or so and not paying that probably appeals to ownership.

I don't expect the Yankees to bring anyone in this month, mostly because we're talking very marginal upgrades and real dollars. Is it worth taking on half-a-million bucks to get maybe 10 innings from Watson, plus maybe another 10 in October? Maybe! But it's not so cut and dried, not with a postseason spot so secure. I'm not expecting anything this month. If the Yankees feel like surprising us, those guys are possible waiver claim candidates. 

5. Remembering a random Yankee: Matt Daley. Our next random Yankee is a high-ranking member of the front office. We've already covered Juan Acevedo, Dean Anna, Erick Almonte, Oscar Azocar, Colter Bean, Mark Bellhorn, Jim Bruske, Billy Butler, Cesar Cabral, Brandon Claussen, Colin Curtis, Jim Deshaies, Robert Eenhoorn, Kevin Elster, Sal Fasano, Greg Golson, Nick Green, Aaron Guiel, Glenallen Hill, Eric Hinske, Rick Honeycutt, Brandon Knight, Matt Lawton, Kenny Lofton, Matt Luke, Melky Mesa, Doug Mientkiewicz, Juan Miranda, Bob Ojeda, Donovan Osborne, Blake Parker, Chris Parmelee, Edwar Ramirez, Tim Redding, Mark Reynolds, Antoan Richardson, Henry Rodriguez, Humberto Sanchez, Zelous Wheeler, Enrique Wilson, DeWayne Wise, Kerry Wood, and Ed Yarnall. 

Daley grew up on Long Island and originally signed with the Rockies as an undrafted free agent in 2004. He gradually climbed the minor league ladder and made his big league debut in 2009, and spent 2009-11 as an up-and-down depth arm with Colorado.  He required rotator cuff surgery in Aug. 2011 and the Rockies released him after the season. The Yankees liked him enough to sign him to a minor league contract that December even though they knew he'd miss the entire 2012 season rehabbing.

The then-31-year-old Daley returned to the mound in 2013 and was very successful in the minors, pitching to a 2.03 ERA with 74 strikeouts and 10 walks in 53.1 relief innings, most with Triple-A Scranton. The Yankees called him up that September and he pitched well, striking out eight in six scoreless innings. Daley's most memorable moment as a Yankee came on Sept. 26th, 2013. He was the reliever who replaced Mariano Rivera following Rivera's emotional farewell.

"It was the coolest experience I've ever had on a baseball field. It was surreal. I don't know that it's totally sunk in yet," Daley told Anthony Rieber following the game. "... They called when Mo went back out for the ninth and said, 'We're going to take him out with two outs. So be ready for the third hitter.' And then I see Andy and Jete walking out, so I'm just standing there because I know it's going to be a little bit. I just kind of stood at the bullpen until I saw (Rivera) walk off. That's when I ran in and got the ball from Jete and Andy. I just said to them, 'This is just a really cool moment right now.' Jete gave me a handshake. Andy gave me the ball.''

Here's more on that moment from Anthony McCarron:

In the bottom of the ninth inning, Daley spied Rivera sitting by himself on the bench, taking it all in. Daley, a 31-year-old product of Garden City, said he told the great closer, "I know you've had a lot of amazing experiences in baseball, but I just wanted to let you know that, to me, this was the greatest experience I've ever had.

"I wanted to thank him for letting me be a part of it. He had a big smile on his face. It was a special moment for me, even though I was just a small, little piece of it."

Daley returned as a depth arm in 2014 and things did not go nearly as well. He had a 4.54 ERA in 35.2 innings with Triple-A Scranton and allowed 11 runs in 14 1/3 innings with the Yankees. Daley was a soft-tosser with a funky delivery, basically an old school left-on-left matchup guy but as a righty, and he was not fooling hitters. In those 14 1/3 innings he gave up four home runs. (Daley was called up in 2014 when Cesar Cabral was designated for assignment following his hit-by-pitch fest in Tampa.)

The Yankees released Daley to clear 40-man roster space for other players that September and he never played again. Shoulder trouble forced him into retirement. He had a 4.47 ERA in 100.2 career big league innings, including a 3.54 ERA in 20.1 innings with the Yankees. The Yankees hired Daley as a scout following the 2014 season and he's since climbed the front office ranks. He and Dan Giese, another former random Yankee, currently oversee the pro scouting department. They're the group that finds the Luke Voits and Gio Urshelas.

6. Rapid fire thoughts. Miguel Yajure, my No. 16 prospect, made his MLB debut last night and looked pretty good for a kid who was called up on Aug. 20th (!) and hadn't pitched since. He threw 12 curveballs and got the spin rate as high as 2,812 rpm (this one), which is close to Deivi Garcia territory. It's definitely a starter's repertoire. He showed four pitches. He's just a little wet behind the ears, which isn't surprising for a kid with 11 career innings at Double-A and zero at Triple-A. Yajure could have really used a full minor league season this year. Hopefully he can pick up his development next year where he left off last year, and not miss a beat. Kid's got a nice little arm ... The Yankees released the injured Luis Avilan over the weekend to clear a 40-man roster spot for Jordy Mercer. Aaron Boone told Lindsey Adler the Yankees hope to re-sign Avilan, though that hasn't happened yet as far as I know. The fact Avilan was released rather than placed on the 45-day injured list tells us his shoulder inflammation isn't bad and he's expected back soon. Now that the trade deadline has passed, I hope Avilan comes back. I'm certain he'll look for a team willing to put him on their MLB roster right away, but yeah, the more depth, the better ... According to Josh Norris (subs. req'd), the Yankees are one of 10 teams to opt out of MLB's alternate site data sharing program. Apparently a major problem is the quality of information from some sites. The Yankees and other teams that opted out, including smart teams like the Athletics and Dodgers, don't want to give up their high-quality information and get something lesser in return, so they've resorted to trading bits and pieces independently behind the scenes. Makes sense, though at this point I can't but wonder whether this information is even useful given how informal the workouts and intrasquad games are at the alternate site ... And finally, J.J. Cooper (subs. req'd) reports MLB has made a formal proposal to Minor League Baseball for a revised minor league system. Long story short, MLB wants to cut out the short season leagues and go with four full season affiliates plus one rookie ball affiliate per team, and they want to assume full governance of the minors and run minor league teams like a restaurant chain franchisor-franchisee arrangement. The proposal would eliminate the MiLB central office and associated fees, saving minor league teams money, and it would also give MLB sponsorship and media rights, making minor league teams more money. I am extremely skeptical of any proposal that makes the finances sound too good to be true. The Professional Baseball Agreement, the agreement that binds MLB and MiLB, expires this month. Right now there is no agreement in place for affiliated minor league baseball in 2021.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)