Thoughts following the 2020 trade deadline

With all due respect to Addison Russ, the trade deadline came and went Monday without the Yankees making a notable addition. Second straight year the Yankees did nothing at the deadline, though at least last year they added Edwin Encarnacion in June. "We went up to the last few minutes. Whether we were close or not doesn't matter. I am comfortable not doing what was being asked for us," Brian Cashman told Marly Rivera. I feel like I could just copy and paste last year's trade deadline thoughts, but here's a fresh batch.

1. Weaknesses unaddressed. The Yankees have some very clear weaknesses right now and those were not addressed at all at the deadline. The offense has averaged 3.67 runs per game in the last 12 games -- the Yankees have hit .210/.313/.395 as a team in those 12 games -- and the Yankees had the flexibility to add a bat at just about any position. They could've added a middle infielder, an outfielder, a DH type, whatever. The lineup is so thin right now that there are ways to squeeze any player into the lineup, and yet nothing. The Yankees will hope Mike Ford or Jordy Mercer or Tyler Wade or whatever other eminently replaceable player(s) is in the lineup each night puts together a hot streak. The Yankees knew they were going to send this lineup ...

... out on the field in a really important game Monday night and still decided yeah, we can roll with that, the bats available aren't worth the acquisition cost. How?

The rotation is unsettled too. Do we really trust J.A. Happ to pitch well the rest of the way? I know he was great the other day, but come on. Deivi Garcia was awesome (more on him in tomorrow's post) and Clarke Schmidt looms, and now those kids are Plan A at the back of the rotation. They're not the high-upside Plan B. I hope it works but gosh, I sure would've liked more insurance! The bullpen? Oy vey. Every game the bullpen is blowing a lead these days. Every single game it seems. Zack Britton will be back later this week and that's great, but Tommy Kahnle is done for the year, and the less the Yankees rely on Jonathan Holder and Luis Cessa to get key outs, the better. Now they can't be marginalized.

Because of the injuries and because the Yankees did not replace any of the depth they lost over the winter (Dellin Betances, Didi Gregorius, Cameron Maybin, Austin Romine, etc.), there are holes up and down the roster, and none were addressed. The Yankees will rely on what they have, and what they have is a roster that has gone 11-12 since the 8-1 start and has pretty much fallen out of the AL East race. FanGraphs says their division title odds have dropped from 76.7% to 28.9% in 14 days. 14. I dunno man. I just don't know. 

I can understand not wanting to give up young players to get help in a season that could be shut down at a moment's notice, but the season is being played, and a champion will be crowned. Until further notice, the season is happening, and the Yankees aren't getting Gerrit Cole's age 29 season back. They're not getting Gleyber Torres' age 23 season or Aaron Judge's age 28 season or Aroldis Chapman's age 32 season back. The roster will be older and more expensive next year, and again the year after that, and with each passing year the chances of winning a World Series with this core diminish. 

As good as the Yankees are -- as good as they should be when healthy, I should say -- my single biggest fear is looking up in two years when Judge is approaching free agency, and this core not even having a World Series appearance to their credit. That happening after the Yankees sat on their hands the last two deadlines would be many things, starting with infuriating and a crying shame. Bottom line, Monday was the last chance the Yankees had to get better this year, and they passed. How anyone could be okay with that, I don't know.

2. Hoping for good health. Praying more than hoping, I'd say. There is a very real chance the Yankees will not have Aaron Judge (calf), James Paxton (forearm), Giancarlo Stanton (hamstring), or Gleyber Torres (quad and hamstring) the rest of the season. Unlikely? Yeah, maybe, I guess, but it's certainly possible we don't see any or all of these guys again in 2020.

Judge reinjured his calf five innings into his return and Brian Cashman said he will spend twice as long on the injured list this time. His first stint was 14 days. Stanton? Who knows. Hard to count on him to staying healthy. I wish it weren't true but it is. The nature of Paxton's injury indicates it could be a lengthy absence, and even if he does return, there won't be enough time to get stretched out to start. Cashman recently said Torres could be out up to six weeks. That means he may not return until October.

The Yankees have two ways to get better before the postseason: Deivi Garcia and Clarke Schmidt, who are their only MLB-ready players in Scranton with impact potential, and their injured guys getting healthy. I'm hopeful the former happens, especially after Garcia's impressive debut yesterday. The latter? The Yankees lost the benefit of the doubt with injuries long ago. The "get our injured guys back and keep them healthy" plan is not exactly reassuring when they haven't been able to keep their guys healthy for two years now.

The Yankees are close to a postseason lock -- FanGraphs has their postseason odds at 98.7% -- and any trade deadline additions would've been geared toward putting the team in the best position to win in October, not chase after every last regular season win. There's a chance the Yankees won't have Judge, Paxton, Stanton, or Torres in October. We know they won't have Tommy Kahnle and Luis Severino. Why should I believe the other guys will be healthy? Why should the Yankees feel comfortable expecting them to stay healthy? I can't believe they're doing this again this year. I really can't.

"Knowing that we're getting everybody back at some point, that's certainly exciting," Cashman told Bryan Hoch. He is a more optimistic man than I, because I have no idea how anyone could be excited about anything with the Yankees when it comes to injuries.

3. The Marte rumor. According to Joel Sherman, the Yankees had interest in Starling Marte prior to the trade deadline. That made perfect sense and I was hoping it would happen. Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are hurt, Aaron Hicks is having what seems like a post-Tommy John surgery down season (a la Didi Gregorius and Corey Seager), and Brett Gardner and Mike Tauchman aren't hitting. The outfield isn't in good shape.

Marte would have instantly become the Yankees' best healthy outfielder -- he's hitting .311/.384/.443 (124 wRC+) this season, though he hit .286/.335/.481 (115 wRC+) from 2018-19, and that's the guy I would've expected going forward -- and it would've been a very similar pickup to Andrew McCutchen in 2018. We don't know when Judge (and Stanton) are coming back and Marte's a good all-around outfielder who could've helped in the interim and also serve as insurance in case Judge (or Stanton) does not make it back.

Beyond getting Marte for the stretch run, his contract includes a $12.5M option for next season, so the Yankees could have picked it up and either a) traded him to recoup a prospect, or b) kept him for 2021. It wasn't a rental, necessarily. Marte was by far the best position player traded at the deadline. He would've helped the Yankees in many ways.

Instead, Marte went to the Marlins (!?) for former Yankee Caleb Smith and two young arms (Humberto Mejia and Julio Frias). The Yankees equivalent to that package is something like a not suspended Domingo German, Miguel Yajure, and a lower level lottery ticket pitcher. I don't blame the D-Backs for jumping on that package and the Yankees couldn't really beat that because they don't have a spare MLB starter to give up like Smith.

4. The Villar rumor. According to Joe Frisaro, the Yankees also had interest in Marlins super utility man Jonathan Villar. Villar has had a rough year -- he's hitting .267/.323/353 (87 wRC+) -- but the track record says he's better than he's shown, and he's versatile enough to play all over the field. He would've helped cover the middle infield while Gleyber Torres is out, then been able to slot in wherever else.

The Marlins traded Villar to the Blue Jays (more on them in a bit) for infield prospect Griffin Conine, who is an Ezequiel Duran level prospect. A reasonable price for a one-month rental, I think. The Yankees are so shorthanded right now that Villar, even the currently crummy version, would've been an upgrade over someone. Mike Ford, Tyler Wade, whoever. There was a spot for him in the lineup. I'm not going to lose sleep over this one though. Marte and Tommy La Stella were the guys I wanted. Both went elsewhere.

5. Pitching rumors. The Yankees were connected to a variety of pitchers prior to the deadline, some of whom were traded (Mike Clevinger, Taijuan Walker) and some of whom were not (Kevin Gausman, Josh Hader, Lance Lynn). The Clevinger trade was a bonkers nine-player blockbuster and I don't see how the Yankees could've beaten that package.

A few lesser pitchers who interested me changed teams: Miguel Castro, Mychal Givens, David Phelps, Mike Minor, and Trevor Rosenthal. Minor has been pretty bad this year and I'm fine with passing there. I openly pined for Givens and Rosenthal and neither was traded for all that much. Castro and Phelps are names I mention in hindsight. Not really on my radar -- why did the in-the-race Brewers trade Phelps, exactly? -- but would've been useful.

This was a weak deadline for pitching. The names are not exciting, but other teams found ways to make upgrades without sacrificing their farm system and the Yankees are left complaining about asking prices. "The names that were necessary to execute certain things are names that we're going to rely on in the present and the future," Brian Cashman told Bryan Hoch. When you hear the same excuse year after year, it loses effectiveness. 

6. The Blue Jays loaded up. Okay, loaded up is overselling it, but the Blue Jays are in the postseason race and they went out and got help at the deadline. They added three starting pitchers (Taijuan Walker, Robbie Ray, Ross Stripling) and an infielder (Jonathan Villar), and didn't give up much of anything to get it. A team in the race trying to get better? Wild.

The Blue Jays are relevant to the Yankees for two reasons. One, the Yankees came into Monday just one game up on Toronto. They're right on their heels. And two, the Yankees still have 10 games remaining with the Blue Jays. More than one out of every three games the rest of the way will be against Toronto.

At best, the Blue Jays will be a headache to play down the stretch. At worst, they're going to bump these depleted Yankees down into a third place and a wild card spot. The Yankees will see Toronto's deadline additions plenty. Fair or not, those 10 games against the Blue Jays will be a referendum on the deadline. The narrative is too easy.

(Tuesday's regular post will be a little later than usual. Been busy with trade deadline stuff at CBS and haven't started writing it yet.)