August 25th, 2020: New Schedule, Paxton, Tauchman, Russ

Couple stray trade rumors have appeared within the last 24 hours. Andy Martino reports the Yankees have been in touch with the Indians about pitching and Jon Morosi says they have interest in Taijuan Walker. The Yankees have made significant deals with Cleveland (Andrew Miller) and Seattle (James Paxton) in the not too distant past, which indicates a good working relationship. Here's what I wrote about Walker, Carlos Carrasco, Mike Clevinger, and Zach Plesac. Now let's get to today's thoughts.

1. Updated schedule and pitching plans. The Yankees will finally return to the field tonight. Their three-game weekend series with the Mets was wiped out because little brother had two positive COVID-19 tests, and yesterday was a scheduled off-day. Fortunately, the Mets had no additional positive tests and will also resume play tonight. MLB announced the Yankees and Mets will play doubleheaders at Yankee Stadium this Friday and Sunday -- I assume the Mets will be the home team for one game in each doubleheader -- and will play another game during their mutual off-day next Thursday. Here's what the Yankees pitching plans look like the next two days and could look like thereafter:

• Tuesday at Braves: Gerrit Cole (announced)
• Wednesday at Braves: Masahiro Tanaka (announced)
• Thursday: off-day
• Friday vs. Mets: Jordan Montgomery in Game 1 and Mike King in Game 2?
• Saturday vs. Mets: J.A. Happ?
• Sunday vs. Mets: Cole in Game 1 and bullpen game in Game 2?
• Monday vs. Rays: Tanaka
• Tuesday vs. Rays: bullpen game? hard to think it'll be Montgomery on short rest
• Wednesday vs. Rays: Montgomery?
• Thursday vs. Mets: Happ?

Cole starting tonight makes sense from a "we want him making as many starts as possible" standpoint. The Yankees figure to need him to eat innings during Sunday's doubleheader, so that lines up well, though it also means Cole won't start against the Rays next week, which is suboptimal. The teams will get a 29th man for the doubleheaders -- hard to think of a better opportunity to give Clarke Schmidt a look than one of those doubleheaders this weekend -- and I suppose the Yankees could go with a spot starter Sunday and push Cole back to the series opener with the Rays on Monday, but eh, I'd bet against it. Cole likes to stay on a five-day schedule and the Yankees do have another doubleheader next Friday in Baltimore. Starting Cole this Sunday lines him up to start in the doubleheader next Friday as well, when innings will be needed. The Yankees seem to be taking a "let's get as many innings from this guy as possible rather than get cute and pick our spots" approach and I can't say I don't like it in this short season. I know the Yankees are chasing the Rays in the AL East (the Yankees are technically in first place by percentage points at the moment), but the postseason is expanded and the Mets are not a pushover -- they're hitting .268/.356/.443 (122 wRC+) as a team -- and those games are important too. The trade deadline is Monday and it's possible the Yankees will make a deal and bring in a starter in the next 48-72 hours, and eliminate the need for a bullpen game during this weekend's doubleheader. It's doable but it needs to happen quickly because the player has to join the team, settle in, get into his routine, etc. More likely, the Yankees will have to get through this weekend's doubleheaders with what they have. They'll manage. Starting tonight and through no fault of their own, the Yankees will play 35 games in the next 34 days, including 20 games in 17 days beginning Friday. Good thing this team is made of supremely durable iron men, huh? A character-building stretch, this will be. The pitching depth, which is already compromised due to injury (Luis Avilan, Zack Britton, Tommy Kahnle, James Paxton, Luis Severino), is really going to be put to the test the next 11 days.

2. Paxton's timetable. Over the weekend the Yankees announced James Paxton will be shut down two weeks with a Grade 1 flexor strain. He said his forearm tightened up while warming up for the fifth inning last Thursday. The MRI showed Paxton's ulnar collateral ligament is "perfectly healthy," he told Pete Caldera, which is good news, though he's not out of the woods yet. Jordan Montgomery suffered a flexor strain with no ligament damage in 2018 before his ligament gave out a few weeks later. As Jeff Passan explains, the flexor (forearm) absorbs a bunch of force when a pitcher throws a pitch, and if it's compromised, the ligament takes a disproportionate amount of that force and bad things happen. It's very good news that Paxton's elbow ligament is intact. They still have to be cautious and let the flexor heal properly before he can return. "Considering the circumstances, I got very lucky with the injury ... My goal is to make it back before the end of the season and hopefully get a couple starts in before the postseason begins," Paxton told Caldera. The regular season ends in four weeks and five days, so time is not on anyone's side. Here is the September schedule and a potential timetable for Paxton's return:

That's pretty much the best case scenario: Paxton is cleared to throw on Sept. 5th, two weeks after the injury announcement, he plays catch twice, throws two bullpen sessions, faces hitters in live batting practice once, then rejoins the Yankees. Maybe the Yankees can knock it down to one bullpen session and get him back a little sooner, but geez, that would be really aggressive following a flexor strain. Point is, the clock is ticking, and even in the best case scenario there's basically zero time to stretch Paxton out to start. He'll be a 1-2 inning guy when he returns, maybe three innings should things go really well. At that point there are two possible roles for Paxton: reliever or opener. Paxton has never made a relief appearance as a big leaguer and there's always going to be some risk when a veteran so set in his ways changes roles, but I think he could handle it. Ideally he'd make a regular season relief appearance or two just to get his feet wet so he doesn't experience life as a reliever for the first time in the postseason. If that's not possible, then it's not possible. Paxton could be a fierce short reliever -- as unlikely as it may be following back surgery and the flexor strain, it's real easy to dream on him throwing 100 mph and dominating out of the bullpen -- and the Yankees could use help out there with Tommy Kahnle done for the year. As an opener, he'd get to stick with his familiar pregame routine and maybe he gets you through the lineup one time. The Wild Card Round is a best-of-three and you have to think Gerrit Cole, Masahiro Tanaka, and Montgomery will be the three starters. Should the Yankees advance to the best-of-five ALDS, they could do something like this:

• Game 1: Cole starts and Paxton pitches in relief
• Game 2: Tanaka or Montgomery starts
• Game 3: Tanaka or Montgomery starts
• Game 4: Paxton opens
• Game 5: Cole starts

It doesn't have to be reliever or opener. It could be both depending on Paxton's ability to adapt. Of course, he has to get healthy before any of this can become reality. My single biggest concern is Paxton getting healthy in time for the postseason. A distant second is figuring out the best role to maximize his impact. I trust the Yankees to figure that part out. The health part is much dicier given the nature of the injury and the fact there simply isn't much season remaining. Being shut down two weeks means Paxton will have three weeks to prepare for the postseason at best. Any sort of delay or setback could render him a non-option in October. Paxton and the Yankees have very little wiggle room with this injury.

3. Talkin' Tauchman. Mike Tauchman is having a productive season in a different way than last season. He's hitting .333/.404/.431 overall, and his 135 wRC+ is in line with last year's 128 wRC+, though the shape of his production has changed. Last season Tauchman had sneaky power, hitting 13 homers and 18 doubles in 296 plate appearances. His .227 ISO was on par with Mookie Betts (.229 ISO) and Eddie Rosario (.224 ISO). This year, the power has vanished -- Tauchman has five doubles and zero homers -- and he's almost a single or nothing hitter. There's nothing wrong with singles, though Tauchman is carrying a .486 BABIP, and no one keeps up that pace. His average exit velocity (84.3 mph) and hard-hit rate (22.9%) are among the lowest in baseball and his spray chart is that of a man who dunks balls in front of outfielders and does little else:

I've said Tauchman's lack of hard contact last season was a reason I was skeptical coming into this season more times than I can count -- last year he had an 88.7 mph average exit velocity and 38.9% hard-hit rate -- though I think I'm evaluating him all wrong. We wouldn't evaluate, say, Tyler Wade based on exit velocity, would we? No. That's not his game and, outside of last season, it doesn't appear to be Tauchman's game either. His game is dunking singles in front of outfielders, not hitting the ball over their heads. This is a guy who once hit one (1) home run in 527 plate appearances at altitude with Triple-A Albuquerque while in the Rockies system. Tauchman has been able to compensate for his lack of hard contact with placement. He isn't hitting the ball high in the air for fly ball outs. He's hitting low line drives over the infield. Baseball Savant got rid of their conveniently labeled radial charts for some reason, but here are Tauchman's balls in play this year:

The medium green-ish area, the one with all the red and blue dots, is batted balls that are classified as flares and solid contact based on exit velocity and launch angle. Tauchman is wearing out that range this year. He's even clustered several batted balls just under that launch angle range (the bottom light green area is ground balls that are topped), so even when he misses outside that range, he hasn't missed too much. Tauchman's swing is currently geared for low line drives and it works because the lack of exit velocity allows the ball to get down in front of the outfielder. If Aaron Judge hit balls that low that often, many would hang up long enough to get carry to the outfielder. The marriage of low exit velocity and just high (low) enough launch angle gives Tauchman a .277 expected batting average per Statcast. That's pretty darn good. It tells us that yes, there is definitely some good fortune in that .486 BABIP, and it also tells us Tauchman is hitting the ball in a way that is conducive to base hits, in his case singles. The soft contact works for him because he's not hitting the ball high in the air nor is he beating it into the ground. Do I expect him to hit .333 all season? No, I don't think I'd expect anyone to do that in this day and age, but there are reasons to believe he can continue spray singles the other way and remain productive. That said, the utter lack of power shouldn't be overlooked, and Tauchman is struggling against lefties. The YES Network broadcasts keep citing his career numbers against lefties and it reminds me of the year Austin Romine was hitting something like .350 with runners in scoring position in April, and they kept putting up the graphic all year even though that average kept dropping as the season progressed. Yes, Tauchman is a career .300/.388/.420 (116 wRC+) hitter against lefties. That is a true fact. So is this:

• Tauchman vs. LHP in July and August 2019: .395/.481/.605 in 52 PA
• Tauchman vs. LHP at all other times: .228/.308/.281 in 65 PA

Tauchman had that six-week stretch early in the second half last season where he was out of his mind. Came out of the All-Star break and hit .380/.447/.700 (198 wRC+) in 114 plate appearances and Aaron Boone couldn't take him out of the lineup. It'll probably go down as the best few weeks of his career -- I don't mean that as a knock, he was just that incredible during that stretch -- and nearly all his career success against lefties came during that time. When I see swings like this and this, I am skeptical Tauchman's true talent against lefties is a .300-ish average (he is 2-for-13 with six strikeouts against lefties this year). The issues with lefties and the lack of power limit Tauchman's offensive ceiling, which is a weird thing to say about a guy with a 135 wRC+, but it's true. Maybe this season is so short that it won't matter and the .486 BABIP will never come back to Earth. Would be cool. Now that the baseball is less juiced -- Rob Arthur (subs. req'd) found the ball is playing like the 2017-18 ball this year rather than the 2019 ball -- Tauchman's power has vanished. He can still contribute singles and he'll take walks (8.8%), plus he remains a good defender (his defensive numbers are way down though, which isn't too surprising given how outrageous last year's were), and all that adds up to a quality fourth outfielder. A regular who occasionally bats third like Tauchman has the at times last few weeks? Eh, I think that's really pushing it.

4. Yankees swap Hale for Russ. Late last week the Yankees sent David Hale to the Phillies for minor league righty reliever Addison Russ. Hale had been designated for assignment to clear a roster spot when Aroldis Chapman returned. Russ, 25, was Philadelphia's 19th round pick in 2017 and his numbers the last two seasons are outstanding: 2.08 ERA (2.60 FIP) with a 32.7% strikeout rate and a 7.2% walk rate in 121 innings. He spent last year at Double-A and it's worth noting he had no platoon split (.220 AVG and 12.8 K/9 vs. righties and .225 AVG and 12.9 K/9 vs. lefties) thanks to a very good splitter. Baseball America (subs. req'd) ranked Russ as the 24th best prospect in an admittedly weak Phillies farm system (ranked 26th overall) in their midseason update. Here's part of their scouting report:

He’s going to attack hitters repeatedly with a 93-96 mph above-average fastball with some run and a plus 84-86 mph splitter that looks like the fastball out of his hand but dives toward the dirt with a little tail at the plate. The two tunnel well together. In addition, Russ does have a below-average slider, but when he’s locating his fastball he can thrive with a two-pitch approach. Russ has average control as well, which is vital because he is much more effective when he can get ahead in counts to set up his splitter.  

Mid-90s velocity with an above-average secondary pitch and an analytical slant (tunneling his two pitches well) qualifies Russ as an extremely Yankees pitcher. Interestingly enough, Bryce Harper helped Russ stop tipping his splitter in Spring Training last year, according to Scott Lauber. Harper was getting extra at-bats on a back field and noticed Russ would bury his hand deep in his glove and flare out his mitt when he threw the splitter. "It’s something I work on constantly, making sure that I hide the pitch as best I can. Having it come from him really was like, ‘Wow, it’s something I really need to work on,'" Russ told Lauber. Here is that splitter in action (GIF via Lucas A):

Phillies GM Matt Klentak has a thing for trading potentially useful young players for freely available veterans (Jacob Waguespack for Aaron Loup, Jake Scheiner for Jay Bruce, etc.) and the Phillies corner of the internet didn't love giving up Russ for Hale without first seeing what Russ could do at the MLB level, especially with Philadelphia's bullpen a total mess. Squint your eyes and you can see a Tommy Kahnle toolkit in Russ, though Kahnle has more velocity. More likely, Russ is a Jonathan Holder type who deceives more than overpowers his way to outs. Either way, he's a pretty great return for a journeyman who had been designated for assignment. I mean geez, usually you're lucky to get cash for a guy like Hale. Russ turns 26 in October, so he's not that young, and he'll be Rule 5 Draft eligible after the season. There's no guarantee the Yankees protect him given their 40-man roster situation. Maybe we'll see Russ in the big leagues at some point this year. I think this trade amounts to a six-week firsthand look at a bullpen prospect. If the Yankees like what they see from Russ at the alternate site, they can add him to the 40-man roster after the season. If not, then they can leave him exposed in the Rule 5 Draft. When the acquisition cost is David Hale -- I say that with all due respect, Hale had a 2.98 ERA (3.55 FIP) in 54.1 innings as a Yankee -- Russ is essentially found money. Whatever he gives the Yankees is a bonus. Hopefully it works out -- cheap optionable relievers are a necessity these days -- and he becomes part of the bullpen core moving forward. If not, so be it. It's a worthwhile roll of the dice. I'm pleasantly surprised the Yankees turned David Hale -- David Hale! -- into a prospect like Russ. Hooray for the Phillies being desperate.

5. Remembering a random Yankee: Jim Deshaies. Our next random Yankee made history when he threw his first pitch as a Yankee. We've already covered Juan Acevedo, Dean Anna, Erick Almonte, Oscar Azocar, Colter Bean, Mark Bellhorn, Jim Bruske, Billy Butler, Cesar Cabral, Brandon Claussen, Colin Curtis, Robert Eenhoorn, Kevin Elster, Sal Fasano, Greg Golson, Nick Green, Aaron Guiel, Glenallen Hill, Eric Hinske, Rick Honeycutt, Brandon Knight, Matt Lawton, Kenny Lofton, Matt Luke, Melky Mesa, Doug Mientkiewicz, Juan Miranda, Bob Ojeda, Donovan Osborne, Blake Parker, Chris Parmelee, Edwar Ramirez, Tim Redding, Mark Reynolds, Antoan Richardson, Henry Rodriguez, Humberto Sanchez, Zelous Wheeler, Enrique Wilson, DeWayne Wise, Kerry Wood, and Ed Yarnall. Deshaies is a native New Yorker from Massena, which is way up north near Montreal. The Yankees selected him out of Le Moyne College in Syracuse with their 21st round pick in the 1982 draft, and it did not take him long to reach the big leagues. Deshaies spent 1983 with High-A Fort Lauderdale and he split 1984 between Double-A Nashville and Triple-A Columbus before the Yankees called him up that August. Up to that point he'd pitched to a 2.72 ERA with 424 strikeouts in 406.2 minor league innings. "The problem (with being a young Yankees pitcher at the time) is one of immediacy. If you struggle early, you’re under a microscope. That puts a lot of pressure on you. If they think you can pitch in the big leagues, they run you out there," Deshaies told Steve Jacobson in 1989. Deshaies made his MLB debut in the first game of a doubleheader against the White Sox on Aug. 7th. When he threw his first pitch, he became the 1,000th person to play in an official game for the Yankees. (That number has since swelled to 1,815 players.) Deshaies made two career appearances with the Yankees, both starts:

• Aug. 7th vs. White Sox: 4 IP, 8 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 3 BB, 3 K, 1 HR
• Aug. 14th at Cleveland: 3 IP, 6 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 4 BB, 2 K, 0 HR

Deshaies was sent back to Triple-A in mid-August -- "You can’t go to the front office and say, ‘Don’t judge me on that,'" Deshaies told Jacobson about his seven-inning sample -- and he never appeared in another game with the Yankees. He spent most of 1985 in Triple-A and George Steinbrenner was trading young players for proven veterans nonstop at the time (Jay Buhner, Al Leiter, Jose Rijo, etc.) -- "A couple of guys told me your goal should be to get to Triple-A so you get a chance to go somewhere else," Deshaies told Jacobson about his minor league days -- so Deshaies was sent to the Astros in Joe Niekro deal that Sept. 15th. Niekro was fine as a Yankee, not great but not terrible either, and it's certainly a deal they wanted back. Deshaies jumped into Houston's rotation immediately, threw 144 innings with a 3.25 ERA en route to finishing seventh in the 1986 Rookie of the Year voting, and wound up spending 12 years in the big leagues. He posted a 3.67 ERA and +12.3 WAR in parts of seven seasons with the Astros -- Deshaies had a 3.22 ERA in 642 innings with +10.0 WAR during his peak from 1988-90 -- before bouncing to the Padres, Twins, Giants, Twins again, and Phillies. He retired with a career 4.14 ERA in 1,525 innings following the 1995 season. These days Deshaies is a great, great television color commentator covering the Cubs. He broadcast Astros games from 1997-2012 before heading to Chicago.

6. Rapid fire thoughts. Kyle Glaser has some good trade deadline inside info. He reports a) MLB has no mechanism in place to reverse a trade should a player opt-out after being dealt, which is a worry among teams, b) information provided via the optional alternate site data sharing plan isn't particularly substantive and doesn't figure to move the needle at the deadline, and c) teams want private transportation for any player they acquire to limit potential COVID-19 exposure. Ken Rosenthal recently reported Scott Boras has arranged a private plane for any of his clients who are traded -- teams have to pay for it per MLB rules, but Boras has travel arrangements ready -- and, frankly, travel should be a non-issue. Major League teams and their owners can arrange private transportation. Any team that shies away from a trade because they're worried about transportation is just looking for an excuse to be inactive ... Over the weekend Yankees player rep Zack Britton said MLB has not yet presented the MLBPA will a bubble plan for the postseason, according to Erik Boland. The entire best-of-three Wild Card Round will be played at the higher seed's ballpark. Seems like the easiest thing to do is follow through with that, then shift to a true bubble. To use Southern California as an example, they could play the ALDS and ALCS at Angel Stadium, the NLDS and NLCS at Dodger Stadium, and then the entire World Series at Dodger Stadium. Four full weeks have been played this season and in all four a team had to be shut down for COVID-19 reasons. MLB stands to make a lot of money in the postseason and they have five weeks to work with the MLBPA to figure out how they can get through October without a costly shutdown that further delegitimizes this season ... And finally, George King reports the Yankees have furloughed approximately 60 player development employees in Tampa (out of 200+). Other teams started furloughing employees in April and May. The Yankees put it off until August. With minor league contraction on the horizon, a lot of these jobs aren't coming back simply because there will be fewer players in the organization. It absolutely sucks. I know this is a direct result of the pandemic, but opportunities to get in (and stay in) the industry are dwindling with each passing year it seems.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)