August 10th, 2020: Stanton, Judge, Hicks, Cole, Ottavino, Trade Deadline

Good article by Marc Carig and Patrick Mooney (subs. req'd) detailing how the Yankees (and Cubs) have turned the team hotel into a bubble on road trips. They gobble up all available outdoor space and conference rooms, and provide players with food and entertainment so they don't have to venture out into the world and won't go stir crazy. They even hold some pregame meetings in hotel conference rooms so everyone can better space out. "That kind of makes me (upset) knowing other teams are going above and beyond to accommodate," said a player with another team. Anyway, here are Tuesday morning's thoughts Monday night because the Yankees have an off-day today and there's no reason to wait.

1. Stanton's injury. Sigh. SIGH. After last season I was hopeful being a full-time DH during a short 60-game season would allow Giancarlo Stanton to stay on the field all year, but nope. He landed on the injured list over the weekend with left hamstring strain. Suffered the injury advancing to second base on a wild pitch in Game 2 of Saturday's doubleheader. "He hasn't had (an MRI) yet. He'll get that in New York on Monday. We felt like it was at least going to be something that's going to keep him out for at least the next week," Aaron Boone told Marly Rivera yesterday. Just to put it all in one place, here are Stanton's injuries since Opening Day 2019:

• Tore his left biceps on a swing on March 31st, 2019.
• Strained his left shoulder during biceps rehab at some point in April 2019.
• Sprained a ligament in his left knee running the bases on June 25th, 2019.
• Strained his right quad running out an infield single in ALCS Game 1.
• Strained his right calf during outfield drills on Feb. 26th, 2020.
• Strained his left hamstring running the bases on Aug. 8th, 2020.

That's an awful lot of soft tissue injuries suffered during routine baseball plays in a relatively short period of time. Stanton dropped 15-20 pounds over the winter not because he was out of shape or heavy or anything (Stanton is many things but out of shape is not one of them). He is trying to find a way to stay healthy. "I had a lot of time to think over last year. I just wanted to cover all my bases. I tried to figure out what was the best way for me to stay on the field. What's the best way to for me to progress? I thought I'd give this a try and be closer to the weight of my younger years," he told Bryan Hoch earlier this month. Now, two weeks into the season, he's back on the injured list for who knows how long. Not good. Not good at all and not only because the Yankees owe him $188M from 2021-27. Stanton has never not been excellent when on the field -- he was hitting .293/.453/.585 (190 wRC) with three homers and nearly as many walks (10) as strikeouts (11) before the hamstring injury -- and now the Yankees will be without a top hitter for the foreseeable future. I suppose there are two bits of good news. One, the Yankees are a near lock for the expanded postseason field even after an ugly weekend at Tropicana Field -- FanGraphs had their postseason odds at 97.5% coming into today -- and there's little benefit to winning the division now. Homefield advantage still matters some because teams are built for their ballpark, but no crowd removes the Yankee Stadium intimidation factor, and homefield advantage in an empty park isn't nearly as great a reward as avoiding the one-and-done Wild Card Game, I don't think. If you are going to lose a top tier player to injury, this is the year to do it. And two, the Yankees are well-equipped to replace Stanton at DH. Mike Ford was at DH yesterday and Joel Sherman reports Clint Frazier will be called up tomorrow. Miguel Andujar is another DH option, though he can't be recalled until next Monday because of the 10-day rule. (The Yankees used Stanton's injured list stint to bring Thairo Estrada back before his 10 days were up. Estrada was sent down earlier today for Frazier.) Boone said the Yankees will be "creative" at DH and that makes me think DH by committee with Ford, Frazier, and others rotating in. Frazier and Ford (and Andujar) are not Stanton -- I love all those guys, but they're not Giancarlo -- but they're plenty qualified to DH. My preference would be Miggy Missiles at DH full-time but Ford or Frazier works too. Not gonna complain about it. Losing Stanton to injury yet again really stinks and it's very worrisome long-term. For this year though, the expanded postseason softens the blow, and if there's any position where the Yankees are overly deep in quality options, it's DH.

2. Early offensive trends. Sixteen games is 26.6% of the 60-game season but 16 games is still not many games in this sport, so, at risk of making too much out of too little, here are a few early thoughts and observations about the Yankees offense.

Missing walks

Here's a weird one: Aaron Judge has two (2) walks in 16 games. Luke Voit has three. Those two combined for a 14.1% walk rate last season. This year it's 4.5%. For real. The first week of this season and this past week are the only two weeks in Judge's career he failed to draw a walk (min. 10 plate appearances). Some more numbers on Judge:

Everything is right in line with the last few years, which is good news. Judge hasn't chased out of the zone more often -- he is swinging at a career high 72.4% of pitches in the zone, it should be noted (it was 65.3% last year) -- and he's still running deep counts. The plate discipline is the same, he's just swinging at more pitches in the zone. Here are the pitches Judge has seen in three-ball counts this year:

Judge hasn't drawn walks because he hasn't had many opportunities to walk. There are what, four obvious balls in that strike zone plot plus five borderline pitches (too close to take, as the saying goes)? And it's easy to say a dot on a graph is an obvious ball. The down and in curveball, the blue dot in the lower left corner of the graph, is this pitch (GIF link):

That's not an obvious ball. That's a nasty hook from a Cy Young winner that looked like a strike until it was about 10 feet from home plate. To me, Judge having two walks -- two! -- through 16 games is sample size weirdness to the max. I haven't see a drastic change in approach, so as long as he keeps doing what he's doing, the walks will come eventually. Voit is chasing a little more but not a worrisome amount (25.0%, up from 22.4% last year) and he is seeing approximately the same number of pitches per plate appearance (3.81, down from 3.97 last year), but he's seen only eight three-ball counts in 47 plate appearances, or 17.0%. That's down from 25.3% last year. He's also hitting .256 with a .535 SLG, so it's hard to complain about the lack of walks 16 games in the season. Despite Judge and Voit combining for a 4.5% walk rate, the Yankees have the 11th highest walk rate in baseball (9.6%) mostly thanks to Aaron Hicks (22.4%), Giancarlo Stanton (18.5%), and, weirdly, Gio Urshela (13.5%). Stanton's hurt now, and as good as Urshela is, nothing in his track record suggests he'll continue walking this much. (Of course, nothing in his track record suggested he would hit like that last season, so who knows.) Eventually Judge will start walking. I feel pretty confident about that. Voit probably will as well. Long story short, I would've lost a lot of money betting the over on Judge and Voit combining for five walks 16 games into the season.

Hicks grounded

Hicksie's return from Tommy John surgery has been uneven. He is 8-for-38 (.211) with one home run and three doubles (.368 SLG), which is objectively bad. Hicks has also drawn 11 walks against only 10 strikeouts, and his .388 OBP is objectively great. When Didi Gregorius came back from Tommy John surgery last year and didn't really hit, his offensive value went in the tank because he rarely walks (hence the .276 OBP). Hicks is still getting on base a ton. When he does put the ball in play though, it's pulled on the ground, and that has made him really easy to defend. Opponents shift and load up the right side against him. Here is Hicks' ball-in-play heat map as a left-handed batter this year (he is 0-for-4 with three walks and two strikeouts as a righty, so I'm gonna ignore those two balls in play):

Like I said, Hicks is pulling everything on the ground. He has a 61.5% pull rate and a 65.4% ground ball rate as a lefty batter this year. Last year it was 55.8% and 43.2%, respectively, and the year before it was 48.3% and 41.7%, again respectively. He's always pulled the ball as a lefty and that's fine, especially in Yankee Stadium, but Hicks has to get it airborne. Right now he is wearing out the right side of the infield. We're talking about 26 balls in play here, so I'm in wait and see mode, though the Tommy John surgery (and shutdown) are reasons to pay a little extra attention. Gregorius and Corey Seager were not quite themselves in their return from Tommy John surgery last year but are seemingly back to normal early this year. Hicks having a down season would be understandable given the circumstances, and if you're going to have a down year, a 60-game season is a good time to do it. (During a potential World Series run is not though.)

Problems with big velocity

As a team, the Yankees have been really bad against high-end velocity this season. Well, no, really bad is overstating it, but they're not hitting for any power against big velocity. With largely the same roster the Yankees hit .281 with a .209 ISO and a 24.6% whiffs-per-swing rate against 95+ mph pitches last season. The MLB averages were .249 with a .160 ISO and a 24.0% whiffs-per-swing rate. Now here are the 2020 Yankees against 95+ mph pitches:

• AVG: .279 (MLB average is .258)
• ISO: .098 (MLB average is .176)
• Whiffs-per-swing: 23.0% (MLB average is 24.0%)

Only four teams (Brewers, Giants, Mets, Red Sox) have a lower ISO on 95+ mph pitches this season. The league as a whole is performing better against big velocity in the early going, putting to bed any idea pitchers would be ahead of hitters coming out of the shutdown, but the Yankees are lagging big time in the power department. Bit of a problem considering the Yankees are built around power and pitchers are throwing harder than ever. Sample size caveats apply here -- when I looked up these numbers prior to Saturday's doubleheader, the Yankees were hitting about .220 with a .120 ISO against 95+ mph pitches, so yeah -- but, through 16 games, the Yankees haven't done much damage against big velocity. They are spraying singles rather than pounding extra-base hits.

3. Early pitching trends. Now that we've looked at some early offensive trends, let's do the same on the pitching side. Again, sample size caveats apply, so I would caution you not to read too much into anything at this point.

Cole's fastball whiffs

Two weeks ago I was asked about Gerrit Cole's fastball swings and misses, or lack thereof. Through two starts he had a 22.0% whiffs-per-swing rate on his heater, which was roughly league average (21.8%) and down from an astronomical 37.6% last year. Cole generated one -- one! -- miss on 23 swings against his fastball in his third start, or 4.3%. Yikes! The whiffs returned this past weekend though:

• First three starts: 13 whiffs on 82 swings (15.9%)
• Fourth start: 13 whiffs on 35 swings (37.1%) 

The Rays aren't exactly an offensive powerhouse but that's more like it. I wouldn't expect 37.6% across a full season again -- that's a truly outrageous number (for reference, Chad Green had a 37.9% whiffs-per-swing rate on his fastball during his breakout 2017 season, and he's a reliever who airs it out in short bursts) -- but league average? Nah, that was never going to last. Cole's too good. This is a weird season for everyone and I'm comfortable chalking the missing fastball whiffs up to the shutdown and the short Summer Camp. Cole made an adjustment and appears to be back on track. "I made a little tweak with my delivery, staying over my legs a little better. I thought that increased a little bit of the deception and allowed me to get through the baseball at the end. Really starting to nail my spin axis. At times it's been a little inconsistent. Today we were really repeating for the most part until a few pitches towards the end," Cole told Bryan Hoch following Saturday's start.

Ottavino's missing whiffs

Here's another weird one: Adam Ottavino has struck out only two of the 16 right-handed batters he's faced. He's actually struck out more lefties (three of the eight he's faced) than righties, which is unusual because Ottavino isn't good against lefties. Anyway, there seems to be something off with his slider this year. He's leaving too many over the plate right now rather than sweeping them across the plate and getting hitters to chase out of the zone. Here are the slider locations he's thrown to righties this year:

Eh, not great. Too many in the zone and not enough off the plate away, and the ones that have been off the plate didn't get swings and misses. Ottavino is not blessed with good control, so I'm not going to get worked up about an 16-batter sample. I'm just pointing out his slider control hasn't been good in the early going and he's not striking out righties -- almost literally his entire job -- at the same rate as last year. I can't imagine that will last. His stuff is too good. Give it time and the whiffs will come. 

Bullpen workload

The Yankees really missed Aroldis Chapman and Tommy Kahnle last week. Even with the rainout Tuesday, short starts by J.A. Happ and Masahiro Tanaka (on a pitch limit) and the two doubleheaders taxed the bullpen. The three late-inning relievers really wore it. Here are the number of pitches they threw each day last week (WU means warmed up but did not pitch in the game):

Green threw multiple innings Wednesday and Saturday, as he often does. There was a stretch two weeks ago in which Britton either pitched or warmed up every day for four straight days, so he's been really busy early on. When your five-man bullpen core becomes a three-man bullpen core, it's hard to spread that workload around, especially when you have two doubleheaders in a four-day span. That's why Jonathan Holder was the first guy out of the bullpen yesterday and that's why Aaron Boone has tried to steal high-leverage outs with Luis Avilan and David Hale. I've been doing this long enough to know a bullpen can go from overworked one week to the manager having to find spots to get his guys work the next week, but yeah, these guys can really use the two off-days this week. Hopefully Chapman will return soon after that -- he's going to face hitters for the first time tomorrow -- and give Boone a fourth late-inning option. The last 7-10 days have been hard on Britton, Green, and Ottavino.

4. Early trade deadline thoughts. The season is only 16 games old yet the trade deadline is only 17 games away. The Aug. 31st deadline is three weeks from today. It is very, very weird. I don't know what to expect this deadline at all. I could see a slow deadline because teams won't want to take on money following the shutdown and also because the season could be shut down at pretty much any moment, and who wants to give up prospects to get a rental only to have the season wiped out? At the same time, there are so many teams in the race now thanks to the expanded postseason that I could see the trade deadline being active. The Marlins and Cardinals outbreaks have shown us MLB is committed to finishing the season and will push through a team being decimated by COVID-19, so perhaps the season possibly being canceled at some point is not really a concern. In theory, the trade deadline will be a seller's market because so many teams are in the race and so few teams are definitely out of it. It's simple supply and demand. As for the Yankees, I'd rank their deadline needs in this order:

1. Starting pitcher
(small gap)
2. High-leverage reliever
(large gap)
3a. Backup catcher
3b. Lefty bench bat

I view the first two items as necessities and the last two items as luxuries. Kyle Higashioka is on the injured list and Chris Iannetta retired -- "I wasn’t about to hang on or sit around and wait for someone to get hurt or get called up again. I’ve never wished anyone to get hurt in my entire career, and I wasn’t about to start now," Iannetta told Ken Rosenthal (subs. req'd), adding he told the Yankees he would retire rather than report to Scranton before the two sides finalized their minor league deal in January -- so Erik Kratz is the big league backup and Josh Thole and Max McDowell are the only catchers at the alternate site. At the very least, I'd expect the Yankees to add another depth catcher for Scranton. A better backup than Kratz could be a trade target should Higashioka's injury linger. As for pitching, yeah, the Yankees need a starter with James Paxton still compromised (but better Sunday) and J.A. Happ not inspiring confidence (the Yankees are using the two off-days this week to skip his start). Getting a starter is not so much about getting through the regular season -- the Yankees are going to cruise to an expanded postseason spot, these regular season games are just to pass the time -- it's about putting the team in the best position to win multiple short postseason series. Gerrit Cole, Masahiro Tanaka, and Jordan Montgomery are a fine 1-2-3 punch but there's room for improvement and you need a fourth starter in October these days. I'm planning to get into the starting pitcher trade market Friday. For now, I'll just say the Yankees need a starter and I really hope the market shifts these next two weeks because the current landscape looks bleak. Not many quality arms look to be available at the deadline. As for the bullpen, Aroldis Chapman is on the way back but I still think the Yankees can use another late-inning reliever with Tommy Kahnle done for the season. Adam Ottavino has issues with lefties -- we saw that Friday night -- and another reliever, preferably someone who neutralizes righties and lefties, would give Aaron Boone another option out there. A Tommy Kahnle to replace Tommy Kahnle, basically. Easier said to acquire than done, of course. The bench bat thing is me nitpicking the roster. Assuming Giancarlo Stanton returns at some point (a big assumption given his recent history), I'd like a bench guy with more versatility than Mike Ford. I like Ford! But it kinda stinks he is relegated to first base only. The player I covet might not actually exist (a Brock Holt who can hit, basically), so again, this is just me nitpicking. Pitching is an obvious need and the last week makes it more likely the Yankees will need another catcher at some point.

5. Remembering a random Yankee: Antoan Richardson. Our next random Yankee comes by request and was involved in one of the most memorable moments in recent franchise history. We've already covered Juan Acevedo, Dean Anna, Erick Almonte, Oscar Azocar, Colter Bean, Mark Bellhorn, Jim Bruske, Billy Butler, Cesar Cabral, Brandon Claussen, Colin Curtis, Robert Eenhoorn, Kevin Elster, Sal Fasano, Greg Golson, Nick Green, Aaron Guiel, Glenallen Hill, Eric Hinske, Rick Honeycutt, Brandon Knight, Matt Lawton, Kenny Lofton, Matt Luke, Melky Mesa, Doug Mientkiewicz, Juan Miranda, Bob Ojeda, Donovan Osborne, Blake Parker, Chris Parmelee, Edwar Ramirez, Tim Redding, Mark Reynolds, Humberto Sanchez, Zelous Wheeler, Enrique Wilson, DeWayne Wise, Kerry Wood, and Ed Yarnall. Richardson's story is certainly one of sticktoitiveness. He was drafted four times but never higher than 13th round -- he eventually signed with the Giants as a 35th round pick in 2005 -- and he played seven years in the minors and independent leagues before making his big league debut at age 27 with the Braves in 2011. He went 2-for-4 as a Sept. call-up and it was right back to the minors the next year. The Yankees signed Richardson, then 30, to a minor league contract in Nov. 2013. They needed a Triple-A center fielder and leadoff hitter and Richardson was both. He had a solid summer with the RailRiders, hitting .271/.380/.364 (114 wRC+) with 26 steals in 27 attempts in 93 games. The Yankees summoned him to the Bronx as part of a star-studded (relative term here) Sept. call-up group that included Rich Hill, Chaz Roe, Chris Young, and John Ryan Murphy's debut. Richardson was the designated pinch-runner and pinch-run he did. He pinch-ran seven times, went 3-for-3 stealing bases in those appearances, and scored two runs. Both were game winners. The first was courtesy of an Adam Lind walk-off error (video). The second was far more memorable. In his final home game as a Yankee, Derek Jeter shot a walk-off single to right field to drive in Richardson from second base. He slid across the plate and everyone mobbed Jeter (GIF via gfycat):

"I knew he was going to get a hit, but I just needed to make sure I scored. I didn’t want to screw it up. I had to score and I stuck my head in there. I can’t tell you the last time I slid headfirst at home, but in that moment everything went out the window," Richardson told Anthony Chiang. Jose Pirela opened that inning with a ground ball single through the left side of the infield and Richardson replaced him at first base. Brett Gardner bunted him up to second and Jeter did the rest. "It was surreal. Honestly, as soon as I crossed home plate and I looked back at Derek and he was pumping his fist, I couldn’t believe what had just happened. It was a great way for The Captain to leave the Bronx," Richardson added. That was the final pitch Evan Meek threw as a big leaguer but it was not Richardson's final MLB game. He got a start in right field the final weekend in Boston and went 5-for-13 (.313) in his month as a Yankee. The Yankees dropped Richardson from the roster after the season and he signed with the Rangers, but missed most of 2015 with back surgery and later a broken foot when he was hit by a pitch during his rehab assignment. He split 2016 between Triple-A with the Dodgers and Pirates, and also an independent league, before calling it a career. Retired after 12 minor league seasons and as a career .350 hitter (7-for-20) in the big leagues. Richardson, now 36, joined the Giants as a minor league outfielder coordinator last year and is now their big league first base coach and baserunning/outfield instructor. 

6. Rapid fire thoughts. Albert Abreu made his MLB debut Saturday and more or less lived up to the scouting report. The stuff was very lively -- Statcast says his fastball is a low-spin sinker, interestingly enough -- and the command was non-existent. He looked very much like a kid with zero Triple-A innings and only 96.2 Double-A innings under his belt. Abreu doesn't look MLB ready and that's kind of a problem because this is his final minor league option year and there's no minor league season. It's big leagues or waivers for Abreu next season. I wrote about this not too long ago and it's worth repeating: 2020 was supposed to be an important developmental year for Abreu and instead it's a lost season. Rough ... Erik Kratz had a couple good lines after being called up this weekend. First, he deemed Clarke Schmidt and Deivi Garcia big league ready. "They are ready to go. There is no other way of saying it. They are ready to go and there is a lot of really good arms down there," he told George King. Kratz might just be gassing up the organization's players but that's cool with me. I like to hear it. Second, Kratz said the alternate site players jokingly call themselves the "JV team or Field 2," which is pretty funny. “Guys down there have done such an incredible job, from the coaches preparing us to the players really taking it seriously," he told Pete Caldera. And finally, when asked about his role and his career, Kratz said he realized long ago that "being the R in WAR is okay," and that is too good. He's an easy guy to root for. He's also the franchise leader in OPS (min. five plate appearances).

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)