April 21st, 2020: Wheeler & Familia, CBA, Loaisiga, Warren

Make sure you check out Bob Klapisch's piece on Giancarlo Stanton and day he took the Mike Fiers fastball to the face. The impact pushed Stanton's teeth through his cheek and part of his face is permanently numb from the nerve damage. Pretty crazy stuff. How a guy can get back in the box after something like that, I'll never understand. That why they're baseball players and I'm a dumb blogger. Anyway, on to today's thoughts.

1. Wheeler and Familia rumor. A wild trade rumor has appeared! It's more than a rumor, actually. It's a trade that was agreed to last summer. Andy Martino reports the Yankees had a deal in place to acquire Zack Wheeler from the Mets prior to the trade deadline, though the trade fell apart. From Martino:

(The Yankees and Mets) actually did agree on a trade last July. Zack Wheeler was going to the Bronx. I wish I had the entire deal for you but can say confidently that the teams had a tentative agreement in place before concerns about the medicals of another player squashed it.

That came after other intensive discussions between Brian Cashman and Brodie Van Wagenen about other players, too. At one point they were talking about Jeurys Familia.

The Mets bought at the deadline (Marcus Stroman), so the Wheeler agreement presumably happened at some point before they pivoted from seller to buyer. Wheeler was dynamite down the stretch, pitching to a 2.66 ERA (3.21 FIP) in 11 starts after the deadline, though we don't know whether he would've pitched that well with the Yankees. Different leagues, different environments, all that. Anyway, lots to unpack here. First and foremost, the Yankees pursuing Wheeler absolutely passes the sniff test. He was arguably the best starter on the trade market and the Yankees badly needed another starting pitcher. Remember, James Paxton had not yet turned the corner and Luis Severino was still very much an unknown in late-July given his injury issues. Even with the good version of Paxton and a healthy Severino, the Yankees still had to start Chad Green -- a gassed Chad Green -- with the season on the line in Game 6 of the ALCS. Wheeler is really good (3.65 ERA and 3.37 FIP the last two years) and he possesses the velocity and spin rates the Yankees love. There's a reason I wrote about him as a trade target prior to the deadline. I can absolutely buy the Yankees pursuing him. Secondly, the Yankees having interest in Familia isn't quite as easy to understand but I do get it. They targeted several relievers with control beyond 2019 at the deadline (Ken Giles, Brad Hand, etc.) and Familia fits the bill. He was pretty bad last year though (5.70 ERA and 4.88 FIP), and he's not cheap either (owed $22M through 2021), so maybe the Yankees considered him fixable and/or were willing to take on his contract to give up lesser prospects to get Wheeler? That'd make sense. Third, who was the player whose medicals squashed the deal? I assume that player was going from the Yankees to the Mets, but Martino doesn't say that explicitly. Wheeler landed on the injured list with shoulder fatigue in mid-July -- he missed the minimum 10 days and made one so-so start before the deadline -- and initially I thought maybe his medicals scared the Yankees, but rereading the report, Martino says the "medicals of another player" were the problem, indicating it was not Wheeler. I can't help but wonder whether Anthony Seigler was in the trade, and his medicals caused the deal to fall through. Seigler got a late start last season because of a Spring Training quad injury and his season came to an abrupt end on July 19th, when a foul tip or a cross-up broke his kneecap. That fits the timeline. The Mets are in the market for a long-term catcher -- their talks with the Padres about Noah Syndergaard were reportedly centered around Austin Hedges -- and the Yankees have been quick to move on from first round picks when they don't like the early returns. They traded C.J. Henry (for Bobby Abreu) and Blake Rutherford (for David Robertson, et al) for big league help the year after being drafted in the not-too-distant past. The reports on Henry and Rutherford were underwhelming and the Yankees acted quickly. The reports on Seigler were underwhelming last year, and the Yankees could have been looking to move on as well. That is just my speculation, but it would seem to fit. (The Yankees also traded James Kaprielian two years after drafting him, though that was after he'd been hampered by injuries. Henry and Rutherford just didn't perform.) Other players in the system who had physical issues last summer include Albert Abreu (biceps), Estevan Florial (wrist), Frank German (shoulder), Mike King (elbow), Everson Pereira (ankle), and Garrett Whitlock (elbow), so I guess that means they could've been involved in the trade. I don't believe the Yankees would've subtracted from the Major League roster to get Wheeler -- that kinda defeats the purpose, no? the goal was to add Wheeler to what was already in place -- but I suppose Miguel Andujar could've been involved in the trade. The Mets would've bought low on a talented player and the Yankees would've gotten the help they needed without subtracting from the MLB roster. I don't think that was the case, the Yankees love Andujar, but it's not impossible. Fourth, this would've continued the club's trend of targeting starting pitching rentals at the deadline. The notable recent exception is Sonny Gray in 2017. Otherwise it was J.A. Happ and Lance Lynn in 2018, and Jaime Garcia in 2017. We could even include Zack Britton rental in 2018, though Robertson and Tommy Kahnle were multi-year pickups in 2017. Point is, the Yankees have leaned on rentals the last few years, probably because they cost less to acquire and there's less long-term risk. Gray seemed like a smart pickup at the time but it just didn't work out. Rentals are essentially free agents with a trial period. If the Yankees like the fit, they could re-sign the player (like Britton and Happ). If not, they could simply walk away. Wheeler was a rental, and while I'm certain Gerrit Cole would have remained the No. 1 priority this past offseason, the Yankees would've gained additional insight into Wheeler had they traded for him at the deadline. That could've put him at the top of their Plan B list or hey, it could've done the opposite. They might not have liked the fit and instead focused elsewhere. Renting Wheeler fits the club's recent trade deadline M.O. And fifth, this is the third time in the last three years the Yankees and Mets were close to a trade only to have it fall apart near the finish line. In 2017, the Yankees offered multiple prospects and salary relief for Jay Bruce, but the Mets instead sent him to the Indians. That same month, the two sides had a Neil Walker trade in place, but the Yankees backed out over medical concerns. Now we're hearing a Wheeler trade was done, only to fall apart at the last moment. The Yankees and Mets rarely make trades with each other -- their last player-for-player deal was the Mike Stanton-Felix Heredia swap in Dec. 2004 -- and I'm going to need to see one happen to believe it. Been saying it for years. Even when they match up well and there's momentum toward a trade, something pops up and the deal falls apart. Given the team's needs and their rotation outlook at the time, Wheeler would've been a fantastic trade deadline addition for the Yankees. We don't know who was going the other way and it's unclear how Familia fit into this whole equation, but the Yankees needed a starter and Wheeler was as good as anyone who was traded at the deadline. Too bad it fell apart. The ALCS could've been a much different story if it hadn't.

2. CBA extension. The more I think about it, the more I believe MLB and the MLBPA should agree to a one-year extension of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement. The current CBA is set to expire on Dec. 1, 2021. It seems unwise to negotiate a new long-term labor deal in these difficult times. This season will be unlike any other season in baseball history (if it even gets played) and there will be a financial carryover effect next season. The league will lose millions (possibly billions) in revenue this year, which will impact free agency. Also, I can't imagine attendance will go back to normal next season. Are you planning to rush back into large crowds when this is all over? I doubt I will. This will be a multi-year recovery and agreeing to a new CBA -- the document that governs the entire sport -- in the middle of that recovery doesn't seem like a good idea. Some details would have to be hashed out as part of a one-year extension. The 2022 luxury tax threshold would have to be established, for example. The CBA calls for the luxury tax threshold to go from $206M in 2019 to $208M in 2020 to $210M in 2021. Another $2M increase to $212M in 2022 seems easy enough, though keeping it flat at $210M would be defensible given the lost revenue and how few teams are at or over the threshold. The minimum salary increase in 2020 and 2021 is set by the year-over-year rise in Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (it's up $8,500 in 2020), so do that again in 2022. That's simple enough. The draft and international free agency will be more complicated. MLB and the MLBPA revised the 2020 and 2021 drafts, and the 2020-21 and 2021-22 international signing periods, late last month. There is nothing in place for the 2022 draft or 2022-23 international free agency. Do you go back to a normal 40-round draft in 2022, or allow MLB to limit it to 20 rounds again like in 2021? Does the international signing period run from July 2nd to June 15th as usual, or can MLB move it back to January again? The revised draft rules will help MLB follow through on its minor league contraction plan and the revised international free agency rules pave the way for an international draft. That is in no way an accident. MLB leveraged the pandemic in such a way that one of their single biggest goals (cutting costs associated with the minors and amateur players) is that much closer to a reality. Are they willing to delay all that one year by agreeing to a CBA extension? Doubt it, but it might be the best thing for baseball long-term. Point is, the sport is going to be in a state of uncertainty this year and next. The entire world will be, really. This seems like no time to negotiate something as important as a new CBA. The conditions are ripe for mistakes. On both sides. MLB and the MLBPA could both agree to things they soon regret. They don't have to agree to an extension right now. The CBA doesn't expire for another 18 months, so they can wait this out and see what the next few months look like. An extension seems like a good idea though. That would buy everyone time and allow things to get back to normal (or closer to normal) before the two sides come to such an important agreement. Better to be safe than sorry, you know? 

3. Loaisiga and the shutdown. I wrote a thing at CBS about potential breakout relievers and included Jonathan Loaisiga. Much of it is stuff you've already read here and at RAB. The raw stuff is so good -- Loaisiga has great velocity and spin on his fastball and breaking ball, and he generated above-average swing-and-miss rates with all three pitches last year -- but he has no track record of staying healthy as a starter (or at all, really). It's an arm you can dream on. It's also an arm that makes you wonder how long until it gives out for good. That sounds harsh, I know, and it is, but that is the reality of Loaisiga's situation. His body keeps telling us it can't deal with the rigors of pitching a full season. The James Paxton and Luis Severino injuries created a need in the rotation prior to the shutdown and Loaisiga was in position to receive an opportunity during their absences. Maybe that opportunity wouldn't have come as a starter. Maybe he would've settled into the bullpen as a one or two-inning guy, or someone who followed an opener, but the opportunity was there. The opportunity should still exist there after the shutdown, just not in the same way because Paxton should be back and Jordan Montgomery is the odds on favorite to be the fifth starter. That's a real bummer. Loaisiga is still a young man at 25, but that's also the age where you kinda have to establish yourself at the big league level, or you risk getting left behind. You don't want to spend your age 25-26 seasons as an up-and-down depth guy, which Loaisiga has been to this point. Careers in this game can be fleeting. Players have a short period of time to get in, prove they have staying power at the highest level, and make some money. A guy like Loaisiga is more at risk of a shorter career given his injury history, and now he's losing at least part of his age 25 season to the pandemic. That stinks. The Yankees like him a lot and I reckon they will have him on their Opening Day roster when baseball returns, even if it's only a 26-man roster (it'll be an expanded roster, but you know what I mean), and I hope he's able to turn that opportunity into a long-term role. Loaisiga, given where he is in his career (trying to establish himself at the MLB level) and his injury history (lots of 'em), has more to lose during the shutdown than most. It's not a make or break year for him, but it could turn 2021 into one. "Loaisiga was an interesting option. We kicked that around. Whether it was a full starter or opener or kind of a Swiss Army Knife role, he had obviously really taken a step forward for us this year," pitching coach Matt Blake told Bryan Hoch earlier this month.

4. 2020 draft prospect: Max Meyer. We don't know when the 2020 amateur draft will take place just yet -- MLB can hold it anytime between June 10th and July 20th -- but there will be a draft this year, and I'm gonna break down potential Yankees  targets the next few weeks. We've already covered Nick Bitsko, Pete Crow-Armstrong, C.J. Van Eyk, and Austin Wells. Meyer, a right-handed pitcher at the University of Minnesota, had a 1.95 ERA with 46 strikeouts and eight walks in 27.2 innings prior to the shutdown. He started his college career in the bullpen -- he tied the Golden Gophers single-season record with 16 saves as a freshman -- before moving into the rotation last spring. Baseball America (subs. req'd) ranks Meyer as the 10th best prospect in the draft class. MLB.com has him 24th. The Yankees hold the 28th pick. Here is a chunk of MLB's scouting report (here's video):

Meyer owns the best slider in the 2020 Draft, a wipeout 87-91 mph offering with which he can add and subtract depth. His four-seam fastball is a weapon as well, clocked as high as 98 in short stints and parking at 93-95 when he starts. His changeup is making progress but he hasn't needed it much in college.

There are questions as to whether Meyer can start at the highest level, mainly coming because he's a lean 6-footer. But he's also a quality athlete who repeats a fluid delivery and fills the strike zone, so he has plenty of believers and could become the Gophers' first first-rounder since Glen Perkins in 2004. A dogged competitor who also gets regular at-bats in the Minnesota  lineup, he'd move very quickly as a pro reliever.

For what it's worth, Baseball America's scouting report says several evaluators called Meyer's slider the "best amateur slider they’ve ever scouted," which is high praise, though we heard similar things about Craig Hansen back in the day, so take it with a grain of salt. The Yankees have drafted only four college starters with their top pick this century: Ian Kennedy (2006), Andrew Brackman (2007), James Kaprielian (2015), and Clarke Schmidt (2017). Brackman was a pure upside play given his size and raw stuff. The other three were total package guys who had three pitches and good control, and played in very competitive conferences. Meyer is ... not that. He's a two-pitch guy in a weak conference. That isn't to say the Yankees won't have interest in him or that he can't have long-term success. I'm just pointing out he doesn't fit their usual first round profile. Keep in mind though, the Yankees have overhauled their player development system within the last 18 months or so, and Meyer has the same kind of athleticism and makeup that drew the Yankees to Kaprielian and Schmidt. Also, the Yankees are very willing to give guys with reliever profiles an opportunity to start. They did it with Chance Adams, who didn't quite work out, and they did it with Taylor Widener, who went from 12th round pick to trade chip in less than two years. Meyer can always fall back on the bullpen. If the Yankees believe in him as a starter, I reckon he'd be mighty high on their draft board. Guys with mid-to-upper-90s gas and the draft's best slider usually don't make it to the 28th pick, but this draft could be more open than most years, so maybe? (Unless MLB shortens the draft less than expected, the Yankees will have only three picks and a $3.7M bonus pool this summer.)

5. Remembering a random Yankee: Kevin Elster. Next up in our series remembering random Yankees is one of the players who appeared in Little Big League. We've already covered Juan Acevedo, Oscar Azocar, Colter Bean, Erick Almonte, Greg Golson, Nick Green, Aaron Guiel, Brandon Knight, Blake Parker, and Mark Reynolds. Elster broke into the big leagues with the Mets in Sept. 1986 and he was on their postseason roster that year, though it wasn't until 1988 that he took over as their full-time shortstop. To make room for him, the Mets traded incumbent shortstop Rafael Santana to the Yankees in a five-player trade. (Santana hit .240/.289/.294 in 148 games with the Yankees in 1988.) Elster remained with the Mets as an all-glove/no-hit shortstop until 1992. He spent 1993 in Double-A (not even Triple-A) with the Dodgers, then the Yankees signed him to a minor league deal on May 1, 1994. Following a short minor league tune-up stint the Yankees summoned Elster, then 29, to the big leagues in late-June because Pat Kelly and Mike Gallego were hurt. On June 30th, Elster played his first big league game in two years. "I'll be every bit as nervous tonight as the last time I was here with the Mets (during the 1986 World Series)," he told Jack Curry prior to that night's game at Fenway Park. Arm problems hampered Elster throughout his career and he started the next seven games at shortstop going down with season-ending shoulder inflammation. He went 0-for-20 in those seven games. That is the franchise record for the most hitless at-bats in a single-season among non-pitchers:

1. Kevin Elster: 0-for-20 in 1994
2. Kyle Higashioka: 0-for-18 in 2017
3. Gerald Williams: 0-for-17 in 2002
4. Dave Bergman: 0-for-17 in 1978
5. Roy Luebbe: 0-for-15 in 1925

I completely forgot Ice Williams came back in 2001 and 2002. Anyway, Elster stuck with the Yankees through the work stoppage and made the 1995 Opening Day roster as a utility infielder. He rarely played -- Elster started only three of the team's first 25 games -- and was eventually released on June 8th. He went 2-for-17 (.118) in 10 games in 1995 and finished his Yankees career with two hits in 37 at-bats. Elster's .054 batting average is the second lowest in franchise history among non-pitchers (min. 40 plate appearances):

1. Skeeter Shelton: .025 (1-for-40 in 1915)
2. Kevin Elster: .054 (2-for-37 from 1994-95)
3. Jim Cockman: .105 (4-for-38 in 1905)
4. Reid Brignac: .114 (5-for-44 in 2013)
5. Ben Francisco: .114 (5-for-44 in 2013)

It's never good when you're on a list with not one, but two revolving door 2013 Yankees. Elster signed with the Phillies soon after being let go by the Yankees and he managed to hang around with four different teams through 2000, including hitting .252/.317/.462 with 24 homers for the 1996 Rangers. Huh. Beyond being one of the worst small sample size hitters in Yankees franchise history, Elster has two legitimate claims to fame. First, he set a new Major League record by going 88 consecutive games without an error at shortstop spanning 1988-89. That record has since been broken (Mike Bordick holds the current record at 110 games), but Elster did break a 42-year-old record, and that's pretty cool. And second, Elster hit three home runs in the first ever game at what is now called Oracle Park. Here's the video. A Dodger hitting three homers in the first game at the Giants' new park? Ouch. Elster retired following that 2000 season with Los Angeles. He hit .228/.300/.377 with 88 homers and +6.2 WAR in parts of 13 big league seasons.

6. Rapid fire thoughts. Hark, an Adam Warren update. Warren told George King he was throwing at 50 feet when the shutdown was announced and he is continuing his throwing program at his home in Tampa. “I have been in touch with the trainers and (rehab coach Greg Pavlick) and they have given me a program where I have been able to keep throwing using whatever I can, whether it is a backstop and my wife helps getting the ball to me," he said. Warren had Tommy John surgery in September and is still relatively early in his rehab. The Yankees signed him to a two-year minor league contract with an eye on 2021. Warren said the Yankees are the "ideal team" for him at this point in his career because he's familiar with the organization and can rehab near home. It probably doesn't hurt that they give him as good a chance to win the World Series as any team. Warren also admitted he is treating this as a rehab year and won't push to return ahead of schedule should the season get pushed back into November. That's smart. He turns 33 in August and a setback could be the end of the line ... Dan Szymborski wrote about milestones that could be lost to the pandemic (I did too) and what caught my eye is ZiPS giving Gleyber Torres a 9% chance to his 700 homers. It's 26% for 600 homers and 55% for 500 homers. I know ZiPS loves Torres, but geez, doesn't that seem high? Those odds drop to 5%, 19%, and 47% with no 2020 season, respectively, but man, those are still really good! Let's say 2020 gets wiped out and Gleyber loses his age 23 season to the pandemic. He'd have to average 30 homers per year from ages 24-38 to get to 500 homers. He'd have to average 40 homers per year from ages 24-39 to get to 700 homers. Seems impossible. But hey, maybe? ... Last week we discussed the Realignment Plan, in which MLB would be split into the Grapefruit League and Cactus League this year. Szymborski ran the numbers using the proposed alignments and the Yankees, in their ultra-cushy division with the Blue Jays, Phillies, Pirates, and Tigers, would have the best division (88.9%) and World Series (15.6%) odds in the game. It's not close either. The Dodgers are second at 77.5% and 13.3%, respectively. Los Angeles would be in a division with the Angels, Indians, Reds, and White Sox. The Realignment Plan isn't very feasible for a number of reasons, but from a "make life easy on the Yankees" perspective, this is as good as it gets. Ain't no shame to sleepwalking to an easy win in a weak division ... Commissioner Rob Manfred will suspend Uniform Employee Contracts effective May 1st, report Ken Rosenthal (subs. req'd) and Joel Sherman. The UEC covers managers and coaches at all levels, scouts, and some front office personnel. Manfred's decision will allow teams to cut the salaries of employees covered under the UEC or furlough them. They don't have to do it, this just gives them the ability to do so, but teams don't really deserve the benefit of the doubt when it comes to financial matters given how often they cry poor. Who will be the first owner to furlough his manager? Astros owner Jim Crane is my guess.

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)