April 17th, 2020: Hank, Shutdown, 2020 Draft, Hicks, Mailbag

If you're jonesin' for baseball, I recommend the Chinese Professional Baseball League. I'm not joking. The games are streamed online, some with English broadcasts (here's this morning's), and the baseball culture in Taiwan is lotsa fun, even without fans in the stands. Well, no fans except for the mannequins and cardboard cutouts (for real). The home run celebrations are over the top and players have at-bat music. Not walk-up music, at-bat music that plays during the entire at-bat. It's great. Here's a walk-off homer from earlier this week and here's a primer on the CPBL (including broadcast info). I've been watching games the last few days -- Esmil Rogers is playing in the CPBL this year but I haven't seen him pitch yet -- and they're a lot of fun. Certainly better than no baseball. Anyway, let's get to today's thoughts.

1. Hank passes. Hank Steinbrenner, George's oldest child, passed away Tuesday due to a long-standing health issue, the Yankees announced. He was 63 and is survived by his ex-wife, four children, and one grandchild. George King and Joel Sherman say the health issue was not related to COVID-19. Here's the statement the Steinbrenner family released:

"Hank was a genuine and gentle spirit who treasured the deep relationships he formed with those closest to him. He was introduced to the Yankees organization at a very young age, and his love for sports and competition continued to burn brightly throughout his life. Hank could be direct and outspoken, but in the very same conversation show great tenderness and light-heartedness. More than anything, he set an example for all of us in how comfortably he lived enjoying his personal passions and pursuits. We are profoundly saddened to have lost him and will carry his memory with us always.”

George started to cede Yankees day-to-day operations to his sons in 2007 and, initially, Hank was at the forefront. He was the one giving the media juicy quotes -- Hank famously ripped MLB's revenue sharing program, said Joe Torre was not grateful enough for what the Yankees had done for him, and took a jab at Derek Jeter for building his Florida mansion (implying his priority was not baseball) -- and, most notably, he went over Brian Cashman's head to re-sign Alex Rodriguez to the 10-year, $275M contract in Dec. 2007. Hank faded out of the picture after that as Hal, George's youngest child and the more pragmatic of the two brothers, took over as the primary control person. Hank remained involved with the Yankees though and he occasionally popped into Spring Training, but he mostly ran the family's horse and IndyCar ventures in Florida. He had his father's bluster and similarly lacked a filter, though he also seemed a bit more sensitive to the blowback, and was not resentful when Hal took over the Yankees. Also like his father, Hank is said to have been very generous and philanthropic without seeking attention. He sponsored a youth travel team called "Hank's Yanks" that sent dozens of players to college and pro ball, including up-and-down reliever Williams Jerez. Hank's reign as the No. 1 in charge didn't last long but it was a monumental point in franchise history when George's health began to fade, and he handed control over to his sons. It was at that time Joe Girardi replaced Torre, A-Rod was re-signed, and the new Yankee Stadium opened. There was a lot of uncertainty about what the future of the Yankees would look like, exactly, and for a while it seemed Hank was trying maybe a little too hard to follow in his father's footsteps. Eventually Hal took over and the Yankees are where they are today, a bona fide World Series contender with a great core, because he's more calculated and business-like. Hank's time atop the masthead was impactful though (for better or worse), and he was still a key member of the Yankees family behind the scenes. I recommend Tyler Kepner's obituary.

2. The latest on COVID-19. There have been several shutdown-related developments the last few days. Some good, some bad. Honestly, it can sometimes be difficult to tell what's good and what's bad these days. Commissioner Rob Manfred told Ron Blum he believes it is incumbent on the league to "turn over every stone to try to play the game in 2020 if there’s any way we can in the environment," which is old news. Both sides agree they want to play as much as possible. MLBPA executive director Tony Clark spoke to Bob Nightengale and was refreshingly realistic. "We don’t have the answers and we don’t expect those to come anytime soon," he said, adding baseball's return "can’t be at the expense of public testing." Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, endorsed the Arizona Plan earlier this week, or some version of that plan. From Blum:

“Nobody comes to the stadium. Put them in big hotels, wherever you want to play. Keep them very well surveilled,” Fauci said. “Have them tested every single week and make sure they don’t wind up infecting each other or their family, and just let them play the season out."

Promising? I dunno. Mike Trout chimed in soon thereafter to remind everyone baseball players are people too, not robots. They have families and people who need them, and sticking them in a bubble is not particularly reasonable. Can MLB really expect however many thousands of people (don't forget the coaches, umpires, grounds crew, etc.) to exist only in a hotel and the ballpark for however many months? The odds a player sneaks out to live a little bit -- I don't even mean sneaking out to do something nefarious, it could be something as innocent as visiting a close friend or family member on another team -- only to wind up infecting himself and a few others seem pretty damn high to me. Florida governor Ron DeSantis deemed sporting events an "essential" activity earlier this week -- they're so essential the WWE immediately laid off a ton of employees -- which is a transparent political stunt with little regard for public health. Nevertheless, it is good news for baseball, because they'll be able to play games in Florida when the time comes. Getting clearance to play is Step 1 in the process. Arizona governor Doug Ducey told ESPN the state will happily host MLB games "at the time that it would be appropriate for public health," so there's at least one adult in the room. Los Angeles mayor Eric Garcetti said "large gatherings," including sporting events, may be prohibited until 2021 during a recent CNN interview (video link), which would rule out a neutral site World Series at Dodger Stadium. That's not official yet, but it is under consideration. Oh, and on top of all this, MLB might ask the players to take another pay cut to offset revenue lost when they play without fans in the stands, according to Evan Drellich and Ken Rosenthal (subs. req'd). The MLBPA considers the matter closed because the two sides already agreed to prorated salaries. MLB doesn't agree because "both parties understood that the deal was premised on playing in stadiums with fans and the agreement makes that clear," according to Drellich and Rosenthal. This is the least surprising news ever. MLB and the owners have been trying to redirect money away from the players and into their pockets for decades, and they've largely succeeded. The luxury tax is effectively a salary cap and team payrolls are not increasing at a rate commensurate with league revenues. Of course they're going to ask the players to take another pay cut after the shutdown. MLB knows the public will side with them -- fans want baseball back and they'll happily call the players selfish for not making it happen as soon as possible -- though millionaires bickering with billionaires over money would be a terrible, awful look given the state of things. I mean, forget about bad optics. Bickering over money while thousands are losing their jobs each week and ensuring regular tests for players when there's not enough for the public and thousands are dying each day would be abhorrent. Fortunately, MLB and the MLBPA are not run by idiots, and I don't believe they'll run into the any of those issues. They'll keep the money fights behind closed doors (I could be completely wrong about that) and the testing issues are more or less out of their control right now. Unfortunately, baseball is no closer to returning despite what Manfred, Clark, Fauci, or anyone else says. I am certain MLB and the MLBPA will do everyone possible to play games because everyone wants to get paid. It just seems like everything that happens, either within baseball or baseball adjacent, is conflicting and yet still bad news for the sport overall. The season has never felt less likely than it does right now, but we're all in this together, and we'll get through it. Onward. "We have tried to be cautious about trying to go too soon, based on what the public health situation is. For people to be out there saying we’re not going to have any sports in 2020, I think that’s going the other way. I think we all need, no matter what your predilection is, to wait for the situation to unfold more, give us more information and then make realistic decisions about what’s possible," Manfred told Blum.

3. 2020 draft prospect: Austin Wells. We don't know when the 2020 amateur draft will take place just yet -- MLB can hold it anytime between June 10th and July 20th -- but there will be a draft this year, and I'm gonna break down potential Yankees targets the next few weeks. We've already covered Nick Bitsko, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and C.J. Van Eyk. Wells was considered unsignable out of his Las Vegas high school but the Yankees took a shot anyway, selecting him in the 35th round in 2018. Obviously he didn't sign. Wells, a lefty hitting catcher at the University of Arizona, starred against elite competition in the wood bat Cape Cod League last summer (.308/.389/.526) and authored a .375/.527/.589 batting line in 15 games before the shutdown this spring. MLB.com ranks him as the 23rd best prospect in the draft class. Baseball America (subs. req'd) ranks him 21st. The Yankees hold the 28th overall pick. Here is a snippet of MLB's scouting report (here's video):

There is no question that Wells' bat plays. The left-handed hitter has power to all fields, with good timing and a simple setup at the plate. He has strength and bat speed and controls the bat head well to make loud contact. He does strike out a bit, but he also draws a lot of walks. There are more concerns about where he might play defensively. He's adequate behind the plate, though he'll split time there with Matt Dyer at Arizona in the spring, and while his arm stroke and release are fine, his throws are inconsistent. He is a decent enough athlete to play first or figure things out in left field.

A team taking Wells with its first pick might want to send him out as a catcher until he proves he can't play the position. His bat should play regardless of his eventual defensive position and he could end up following a Kyle Schwarber type path to the big leagues.

It is notable the Yankees drafted Wells once before but be careful not to read too much into it. Like every team, they fail to sign several draft picks each year. Sometimes they draft the player again in the future, most of the time they don't. It's more notable the Yankees have shown a willingness to select bat first catchers in the early rounds in recent years (Pete O'Brien in 2012, Josh Breaux in 2018). Wells is cut from a similar cloth and the Yankees hired Tanner Swanson over the winter not only to work with Gary Sanchez, but also to oversee catcher development in the farm system. They may see Wells as a good candidate for Swanson's catching program. Turn him into a passable defender and the bat could make him an All-Star. Money could be an obstacle though. Wells is a draft-eligible sophomore, giving him more leverage than the typical college draftee because he could go back to school for his junior year and reenter the draft next summer. Unless MLB shortens the draft less than expected, the Yankees will have only three picks and a $3.7M bonus pool this summer. The Yankees would have to be absolutely sure they can sign Wells before pulling the trigger -- pre-draft agreements happen all the time even though they are technically illegal -- otherwise they risk losing him and the $2.5M in bonus pool money tied to their first round pick. I am skeptical the Yankees will play games with their bonus pool this draft only because they have so little of it (and only three picks), but maybe they really like Wells, and really believe in the bat and his ability to improve defensively. At the end of the first round, catchers who can bang are fine selections. The upside is considerable. (Baseball America (subs. req'd) has the Yankees taking Baylor shortstop Nick Loftin with the No. 28 pick in their most recent mock draft. MLB.com ranks him as the 49th best prospect in the draft class and says he "doesn't have loud tools but he contributes in all phases of the game." Also, I guessed my way through a mock draft at CBS, if you're interested in that.)

4. Remembering a random Yankee: Mark Reynolds. Up next in our series remembering random Yankees of yesteryear is the recently retired Mr. Reynolds. We've already covered Juan Acevedo, Oscar Azocar, Colter Bean, Erick Almonte, Greg Golson, Nick Green, Aaron Guiel, Brandon Knight, and Blake Parker. Due to injuries and poor roster construction, the 2013 Yankees had a revolving door on the infield all season long. Reynolds signed a one-year deal with the Indians the prior offseason and was released on Aug. 12th after hitting .215/.307/.373 (90 wRC+) in 99 games. The Yankees signed him for the prorated minimum three days later because, well, why not? They were giving at-bats to guys like Jayson Nix, Luis Cruz, and Lyle Overbay, who crashed hard in the second half. The offense needed a jolt and Reynolds was as good a bet to provide it as anyone who was available in mid-August. He made his first start as a Yankee the day after signing and he became the 16th player in franchise history to go deep in his first at-bat with the team when he lifted a two-run home run over the Green Monster (video). Reynolds went 2-for-5 and drove in three runs in the game. He primarily platooned with Overbay at first base but also saw some action at third base despite being a terrible defender. The infield situation was that dire. On Aug. 27th, Robinson Cano took a pitch to the hand and Eduardo Nunez hurt himself stumbling over his own feet, leaving the Yankees short on the infield. Reynolds stepped in at second base in the ninth inning -- he made a nice pivot on the game-ending double play (video) -- and started at second the next day. It was his 963rd career big league game and his first start at second base. The Yankees faded out of the postseason race but Reynolds was a solid contributor the rest of the season. In Game 162, the Yankees and the 111-loss Astros played a wholly unnecessary 14-inning game at Minute Maid Park. Reynolds broke the tie with a 14th inning solo homer (video). That made him the first (and still only) player in franchise history to hit a home run in his first at-bat and his last at-bat as a Yankee. Pretty cool, no? Reynolds hit .236/.300/.455 (106 wRC+) with six homers in 36 games and 120 plate appearances as a Yankee. It doesn't get much better than +0.7 WAR from an August scrap heap signing. As noted earlier, Reynolds announced his retirement recently. He was a career .236/.328/.453 (103 wRC+) hitter with 298 homers in parts of 13 big league seasons. Banked nearly $30M in contracts too. Reynolds was a flawed player, no doubt, but he managed to make a little history as a Yankee, and many players would sign up for his career in a heartbeat.

5. Rapid fire thoughts. Aaron Hicks update: he's started swinging "with a regular bat and with a fungo" as part of his Tommy John surgery rehab, he said during a recent YES Network interview (video link). "Things have been moving along smoothly ... Pretty much Monday, Wednesday, Friday is when I go and do my PT stuff," he said. Didi Gregorius started swinging a bat in mid-March last year. He had his surgery Oct. 17th. Hicks had his surgery Oct. 24th, so a week later. He's just now swinging a bat, roughly a month later than Sir Didi. That's not necessarily a red flag, Tommy John surgery rehabs progress at different paces, but he is a little behind where Gregorius was last year. As long as he's making progress, that's fine. Not like the season has already started or will start anytime soon. Might as well take a little slow ... Randy Miller has a good interview with amateur scouting director Damon Oppenheimer. He says the Yankees are scouting video and holding Zoom calls with draft prospects these days, and also mentioned the team is preparing for the possibility that the draft will be more wide open than usual. "We probably have guys on our board at this point that normally would have been off because we’d know most likely they’d be gone by the time we pick. In this year’s draft, because you don’t have the same amount of data, there’s probably a larger pool of guys that could get down to 28," Oppenheimer said. I hadn't considered that but it certainly makes sense. There are no games, so no player has a chance to improve (or hurt) his stock, and really separate himself from the pack. The various draft prospect rankings may reflect the industry consensus much less than usual this year. 

Mailbag Question of the Week

John asks: I've been trying to dig up some happy memories about baseball with everything going on. Of late, one that keeps coming to mind is that incredible first half of 2017 for Judge. Even with the "slump" and shoulder issue of the second half he still managed 8.3 WAR on fangraphs. I wasn't able to find a way to slice it to just the first half, but from a WAR perspective how does that first half rank? One of the best of the last 20 years? One of the best in Yankee history? I can't imagine there ever being a half of a season for a rookie.

Aaron Judge hit .329/.448/.691 (198 wRC+) with 30 homers in 83 games in the first half in 2017. In the second half he slumped all the way down to ... .228/.391/.548 (145 wRC+) with 22 homers in 71 games. Even when he was bad, he was still really good.

That first half was worth +5.6 WAR, easily the best in baseball. Jose Altuve was a distant second at +4.4 WAR and only three other players reached at least +4.0 WAR in the first half. That +5.6 WAR in the first half is very good but not unprecedented. Ten players reached that level in the 2010s. Well, seven players combining for 10 instances:

1. 2018 Mookie Betts: +6.7 WAR
2. 2018 Mike Trout: +6.5 WAR
3. 2013 Miguel Cabrera: +6.4 WAR
4. 2018 Jose Ramirez: +6.1 WAR
5. 2011 Jose Bautista: +6.0 WAR
6. 2019 Mike Trout: +5.8 WAR
7. 2014 Mike Trout: +5.8 WAR
8. 2013 Mike Trout: +5.7 WAR
9. 2013 Buster Posey: +5.6 WAR
10. 2017 Aaron Judge: +5.6 WAR

The thing is, Judge did that as a rookie. Trout was a second year player in 2013 when he had that +5.7 WAR first half. Otherwise those players were all veterans (or young veterans) who were several years into their careers.

FanGraphs splits WAR only goes back to 1974 and I did not find another rookie with a first half as good as Judge's in 2017. Mike Schmidt had a +5.9 WAR first half as a second year player in 1974. He and 2013 Trout are the closest. With the caveat that my search capabilities are limited, I am comfortable saying Judge's 2017 first half is the best rookie first half of the last 50 years. He was that good.

Bonus Mailbag Question of the Week

Jason asks: If the 2020 season is cancelled, do the Yankees save the $21MM that they owe Ellsbury (assuming they lose their contract dispute)? He has been released, so wouldn't have to play this season to get paid, which makes him different from other players (for example, I believe he does not accrue service time even if he is paid his full salary). I assume they don't pay him, but I am not actual sure that he is in the same boat as other players.

The Yankees released Jacoby Ellsbury in November and are not paying him right now because they say he received medical treatment without their permission, and they're trying to void the contract. If the season is canceled, I assume that would let them off the hook completely, with no need for legal action. No one gets paid if the season is canceled.

That said, the Yankees are also seeking to recoup part of Ellsbury's 2019 salary, so they'll likely move forward with the grievance even if the season is canceled. That's still a couple million bucks on the line. Ellsbury is not on a 40-man roster, so he's not getting a piece of the $170M advance, and service time is irrelevant for him. He's over 10 seasons, locking in the full pension and whatnot.  

As for the luxury tax, Ellsbury would not count against the payroll in 2021 if the season is canceled because he's not under contract in 2021. He will count against the 2020 luxury tax payroll until further notice though. I doubt the grievance will be settled anytime soon. I bet Ellsbury will count against the luxury tax in 2020 should the season begin.

Bonus Bonus Mailbag Question of the Week

Michael asks: Is it possible that the shortening of the draft to five rounds could actually help the Yankees? With the Yankees resources, could they have access to more extensive scouting and thus find themselves in position to pick up some decent players from the $20K class? 

It's possible. For sure. The $20,000 bonus cap levels the playing field because every team can afford that, so dominating that market will come down to two things. One, how well do you know the players? The Yankees do relatively well with late round picks (i.e. turn them into trade chips or role players) and they'll be able to approach any player and not have to draft him. It's free agency, basically.

And two, what can you offer in addition to the $20,000? Good facilities, good instruction, good nutrition, so on and so forth. You can no longer buy players with big bonuses. Want them to sign with you? You better offer something beyond the cash. The Yankees renovated the Tampa complex a few years ago and their facilities at every level are pretty state of the art. They treat their players well and that should help them in the undrafted free agent market.

Ultimately, the $20,000 won't be enough for some players no matter how much other stuff you offer them. Not much the Yankees can do about that. Among the guys willing to sign at that price though, the Yankees have much more to offer beyond the money, and they've always scouted well. That should serve them very well after the draft this summer.

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)