March 26th, 2020: Opening Day, Shutdown Plans, Injuries, Abreu, Mailbag

PSA: You can watch every 2018 and 2019 game on MLB.tv for free during the shutdown. Sign up for a free MLB.com account and stream away. Here's my viewer's guide to the best games of the last two years. Also, pretty much every game since 2009 is on YouTube. Not pirated either. I mean on the various official MLB channels. Here's how you find them and here's my list of the most memorable games of the RAB era. Anyway, because today was supposed to be Opening Day, I figured I'd post Friday's post a day early. Feels appropriate. Here are today's thoughts as CC Sabathia picks the best shortstop he ever played with to be part of his "must-win" lineup.

1. Unopening Day. When I went to bed last night, I assumed today would be just another typical day without baseball even though it was supposed to be Opening Day. Then I woke up this morning antsy for baseball and started watching the 2017 AL Wild Card Game before I finished my morning coffee. I've missed baseball since the shutdown, no doubt, but today is the first time I really missed baseball. I think that's because Spring Training games, while fun in their own way, are meaningless. We weren't losing anything important and no baseball was an inconvenience more than a significant loss. Today is the first time I felt baseball had been taken away from me. There are far more important things going on in the world right now and it feels selfish to say I miss baseball, but I miss baseball, and it's okay to feel that way. I miss baseball, I miss hanging out with my friends, I miss a lot of things. I missed baseball more yesterday than I missed it the day before, and I miss it a lot more today than I did yesterday. I don't know when the shutdown will end -- I'll be completely honest with you, given the inadequate resources and lack of testing, and the rate at which the pandemic is spreading, I am becoming more convinced there will be no baseball in 2020 with each passing day -- but I hope it ends soon. Baseball is an everyday thing and that can make it easy to take it for granted. Now though? I can't imagine I'll feel like that anytime soon once baseball does return. Opening Day is a special day and today was supposed to be special. Now it feels like anything but.

(One real quick thought as I rewatch the 2017 AL Wild Card Game: Joe Girardi is a good manager but I absolutely do not miss seeing him so high-strung and seemingly stressed out in the dugout. I've fully embraced Zen Baseball the last few years and the excessively chill Aaron Boone is the perfect manager for my preferred baseball viewing experience at this point in my life.)

2. MLB and MLBPA negotiations. MLB and the MLBPA are reportedly nearing an agreement addressing several shutdown related issues. The two sides had been treating Opening Day as a soft deadline -- Opening Day is the start of the players' first pay period -- but talks may bleed into Friday, and that's fine. They need to get things right. Here's a recap and a breakdown of everything on the table. Info comes from Ronald Blum, Jeff Passan, Ken Rosenthal (subs. req'd), Joel Sherman, and Jayson Stark (subs. req'd).

Service Time

If the 2020 season is canceled, players would be credited with the same service time this year that they received in 2019. That means players scheduled to become free agents after the season (Mookie Betts, James Paxton, J.T. Realmuto, etc.) would still become free agents, and it also means Vlad Guerrero Jr. wouldn't get a full year of service time, giving the Blue Jays another year of control. If games are played this year, service time would be pro-rated. Normally 172 days equals a full season. If they play 100 days in 2020, then 100 days would equal a full season. That seems pretty good for the MLBPA. Young guys who had their service time manipulated last year would get screwed if the season gets canceled, but the free agents still get to become free agents, and players can still get credit for a full season of service time in a shortened season. (Service time determines not only arbitration and free agent eligibility, but also pension plan and licensing money eligibility as well.)

MLB Salary

The union either already has or is expected to agree to pro-rated salaries for this season. In a show of goodwill, MLB will advance the union more than $150M during the shutdown, or $125,000 per 40-man roster player. The union will drop members into four buckets (new to 40-man roster, pre-arbitration-eligible, arbitration-eligible, and guys with guaranteed contracts) and distribute the money unevenly, however. The MLBPA could've held out for full salary and prepared for a long legal battle, though I think that would've been a loser. Commissioner Rob Manfred can suspend contracts during a national emergency and the White House officially declared the pandemic a national emergency two weeks ago. That hurt the union's case because they would've argued Manfred himself can not declare a national emergency. Baseball is going to take a financial hit during the shutdown and MLB and the MLBPA should share that burden. You can't demand half the profits during the good times and duck half the losses during the bad times. The two sides are in this together and pro-rating salaries is only fair. (Bob Nightengale says players on minor league contracts will receive 45 days termination pay if they don't make the Opening Day roster and are released. I assume that only applies to veterans with at least six years of service time. For the Yankees, that would mean Luis Avilan and Chris Iannetta.)

Minor League Salary

Minor leaguers will continue receiving $400 per week allowances until April 8th -- that is a significant bump from the $100 to $200 weekly allowances they get in Spring Training -- which was scheduled to be minor league Opening Day. The Yankees typically pay minor leaguers a $25 per diem during Spring Training. They've upped that to $75 during the shutdown and provided players with food and housing during the two-week quarantine in Tampa. The quarantine ends today and players have been encouraged to go home, if possible, according to Bryan Hoch. MLB and the MLBPA are working on a plan to pay minor leaguers beyond April 8th, though they have some time to figure that out, and are prioritizing Major League issues right now. Minor leaguers are underpaid as it is and getting a job during the shutdown is damn near impossible because a) the job market is in the tank, and b) the players would have to be able to give it up at a moment's notice should baseball resume. Oh, and they're expected to stay in shape during the shutdown. It's tough. Pay the minor leaguers, please. They're not a burden, they're an investment in the future of the sport.

Spring Training 2.0

No word on what Spring Training 2.0 will look like but I suspect MLB and the MLBPA will do something similar to the Asian leagues. Once conditions allowed, NPB and KBO held spring workouts in empty stadiums with small groups of players -- everyone was spread out to maintain social distance -- and once conditions improved further, they were ready to jump right into exhibition games. The pandemic won't have a fixed end date. We're not going to wake up one day and it'll all be over, and Spring Training can begin and life can go back to normal. Conditions will improve and baseball will be able to resume on a smaller scale, then they'll improve further and more baseball will happen, so on and so forth. Right now, there are no firm plans for Spring Training 2.0, but NPB and KBO serve as a guide.

The Regular Season

Earlier this week Manfred acknowledged "we're probably not gonna be able to do" a 162-game regular season, though MLB and the MLBPA are both committed to playing as many games as possible, even if they have to play without fans in the stands. The union has apparently expressed a willingness to play doubleheaders when the season starts, something they did not do following the 1995 work stoppage. (There's even been talk MLB could play seven-inning doubleheaders like in the minors.) As for the schedule, the plan is to pick it up at whatever point Opening Day arrives. Generating a new schedule would be a logistical nightmare. Venues are already booked, team travel has been arranged, tickets have been purchased, ads have been sold, etc. MLB wants every team to play the same number of games though, so, to even things up, they could sprinkle in doubleheaders, replace off-days with games, and even tack games on at the end of the season. Not really sure what else baseball can do here. Picking up the current schedule is not fair in the unbalanced schedule era, but such is life. We're all making the best of a bad situation. "Nothing's off the table for us right now. I think we are open, and we've had some really positive conversations with our players' association about relaxing some of the rules that govern our schedule," Manfred said during an ESPN interview earlier this week.

The Postseason

No idea yet. MLB and the MLBPA are said to be willing to push the postseason back into November and play games at neutral sites, if necessary. There is no postseason plan in place yet though, and there won't be one until we know when the regular season can begin and how long it'll be. There are other things that have to be figured out first before MLB can figure out how it'll handle the postseason. Television rights could be an issue in November (and December?) since FOX and ESPN and other networks have broadcast rights to other sports those months. I don't have much to say about the postseason right now other than I would bet on the league coming up with an expanded format to maximize revenue following the shortened regular season.

The Draft

Thankfully, common sense has seemingly prevailed and the annual amateur draft will not be skipped. It is likely to be pushed back to July, however, and shortened to 5-10 rounds. Also, Kiley McDaniel says bonuses will be paid over multiple years to ease the financial burden (10% in July 2020, 45% in July 2021, 45% in July 2022) and bonuses for undrafted free agents will be capped at $10,000. I'm not sure what the plan is for the international signing period, though I assume those bonuses will be spread out as well. Even before the shutdown, I was cool with shortening the draft. Trim it from 40 rounds to 20 rounds and let teams fill out their short season rosters with undrafted free agents. Ten rounds? Eh, as a one-time thing, it'll be fine. Five is really cutting it short though, and that bonus payout structure though? Woof. To use Ken Waldichuk, last year's fifth round pick, as an example, he would've received only $30,700 of his $307,000 bonus upfront, and then another $138,500 in each of the next two Julys. A dollar today is worth more than a dollar one year from now, and there will be lots of kids and families who could use the financial help this summer that will now only get a small portion of their bonus upfront. Rough. This is better than skipping the draft entirely, but yeesh, amateurs are getting hosed. (I wrote a CBS post looking at alternatives to skipping the draft.)

Transactions Freeze

Amazingly, there is still no word on whether MLB will implement a transactions freeze during the shutdown. Since Tuesday's post, minor league catcher Johnny Pereda was traded by the Cubs to the Red Sox as a player to be named later, and the Royals designated lefty Erik Skoglund for assignment. Pretty crazy players have to worry about changing teams or losing their job during a pandemic. A transactions freeze is overdue.

The Luxury Tax

I have seen nothing about adjusting the luxury tax system this year. Because the luxury tax is calculated using average annual value and not real dollars, I guess the system could stay as is? Every player is signed already. Just use their full season salary to calculate luxury tax payroll and not worry about pro-rated salaries. Seems easy enough. The Astros ($232M), Cubs ($214M), Dodgers ($233M), and Yankees ($261M) are the only teams projected to exceed the $208M luxury tax threshold this year, so this only impacts a small number of teams. I dunno, maybe I'm missing something obvious, but it seems to me MLB could keep the luxury tax system as is and calculate it using full season salary numbers. (Since draft bonuses are being spread out over multiple years, it stands to reason luxury tax payments could be spread out over multiple years too, right? Money's apparently that tight.)

3. Syndergaard's elbow. Another one bites the dust. Earlier this week the Mets announced Noah Syndergaard needs Tommy John surgery. That comes a few days after the Red Sox announced Chris Sale needs his elbow rebuilt, and a few weeks after the Yankees lost Luis Severino to the zipper. Ten pitchers have needed Tommy John surgery since the start of Spring Training according to Jon Roegele's spreadsheet, including seven big leaguers (Sale, Severino, Syndergaard, Tyler Beede, Matt Carasiti, Matt Festa, Andres Munoz) and two top Double-A prospects (Reggie Lawson, Joey Wentz). That got me wondering about the shutdown and a potential increase in injury risk whenever Spring Training 2.0 begins. We're in uncharted territory. The shutdown occurred in the middle of Spring Training and there's no real protocol for backing off for an unknown length of time, then ramping back up again. It could be dangerous and everyone is trying to figure it out on the fly. That said, I don't think those 10 Tommy John surgeries are an indication the shutdown is already causing injuries. For starters, Tommy John surgery peaks in Spring Training. Ben Lindbergh did the research a few years ago and found nearly one-third of all Tommy John surgeries each year take place in March. That makes sense, intuitively. Pitchers begin to increase their throwing in Spring Training and inevitably some do too much, too soon. Also, some players have elbow issues dating back to the previous season that don't get better over the winter. Roegele's spreadsheet logged 11 Tommy John surgeries last spring and 19 (!) the year before, so 10 this year is the norm. Secondly, those 10 injuries happened prior to the shutdown. Sale and Severino had been nursing elbow and forearm issues since last season, Beede first felt tightness in late February, Munoz hurt his elbow throwing a slider in early March, and the Mets say Syndergaard first felt discomfort before the shutdown. The surgeries may have been announced until after the shutdown, but the actual injuries date back a while. The 10 Tommy John surgeries this spring are not evidence the shutdown comes with increased injury risk, but it is a valid concern, and we're not going to know anything until the shutdown is over and pitchers begin throwing with intent. Guys have been throwing during the shutdown -- Gerrit Cole is playing catch with his wife, Sonny Gray is throwing into a net in his backyard, Mike Clevinger is playing catch in the street, so on and so forth -- but what happens when they get up on a mound and start spinning breaking balls again? I hope everything will be okay and I assume most pitchers will be fine. Maybe this is no different than a pitcher pulling a hamstring in Spring Training and returning at midseason. That happens all the time, right? I still worry though. MLB returning to a rash of blown out elbows in Spring Training 2.0 because no one knows how to safely keep their arm in shape during a shutdown of unknown length would be terrible. 

4. Abreu's season. Last week I looked at four Yankees who may be hurt professionally by the shutdown. A player I did not mention who belonged in that post is Albert Abreu, my No. 7 prospect. Abreu had an underwhelming season last year, pitching to a 4.28 ERA (4.36 FIP) with mediocre strikeout (20.7%) and walk (12.2%) rates in 96.2 Double-A innings. He also missed time with injury (three weeks with biceps inflammation). The numbers are unimpressive and the injuries are piling up, but the talent is obvious and the raw stuff is still so tantalizing. Here's what MLB.com says about Abreu:

When he's healthy and dialed in, all three of Abreu's pitches can grade as well above average. He can maintain a 94-98 mph fastball with riding action throughout his starts and reach 101 mph. His power slurve can destroy hitters with its combination of curveball depth and mid-80s slider velocity, and he can demonstrate advanced feel for a fading mid-80s changeup.

The scouting report goes on to say Abreu has the "ceiling of a frontline starter" with "closer upside" should he land in the bullpen. That is not an arm you give up on. Abreu will play most of this season at age 24 and remember, Dellin Betances did not have his first great season until he was 26. If you can get outs, it doesn't matter how old you are. The thing is, Abreu still has to iron out his mechanics and develop workable control, and the shutdown could give him fewer games to work on things this year. This is Abreu's final minor league option year. Starting next season, he has to pass through waivers to go to the minors, and there's little chance a guy with an arm like this sneaks through unclaimed. The Orioles or Tigers or some other bad rebuilding team would stash him in the bullpen and see what's what. This season could be Abreu's last chance to work on things in an appropriate setting (i.e. the minors) and now the season may be shortened. That's unfortunate. Depending when the season begins, it might be best to just stick Abreu in the bullpen, let him air it our for an inning or two at a time, and see what happens. That is likely his long-term home and maybe it's best to have Abreu get familiar with the role in however many games he gets to play this season. There are bound to be other players in the same situation as Abreu (unrefined and entering what might be a shortened final option year). Maybe if the season is short enough, MLB would be willing to award more fourth options in 2020. The players and the MLBPA won't like that and I get it, but it might be the best thing for them long-term. International kids are already at a disadvantage because they sign so young and have to be added to the 40-man roster at such a young age, rushing their development. Abreu falls in that category -- he will be out of options in his age 25 season when a high school draftee won't run out of options until his age 26 season, and a college draftee until his age 28 season -- and now the shutdown may cut his final option year short. It could hurt his professional development. Putting him in the bullpen full-time this year may be the best thing for him given the circumstances.

5. Remembering a random Yankee: Brandon Knight. Our new series looking back at random Yankees of yesteryear continues today with Knight, a right-handed pitcher. We've already covered Erick Almonte, Nick Green, and Aaron Guiel. Knight was originally drafted by the Rangers in 1995 and the Yankees acquired him (and fellow righty Sam Marsonek) in the Chad Curtis trade in Dec. 1999. The Twins took a shot on Knight in the 2000 Rule 5 Draft, but he didn't make the team, and was returned in Spring Training. His first big league opportunity came in June 2001, when Orlando Hernandez went down with a toe issue. Ramiro Mendoza slid into the rotation and Knight settled into the bullpen. The then 25-year-old made his MLB debut on June 5th and allowed four runs in four innings at the end of a blowout loss. He appeared in four big league games that season, allowed multiple runs in all of them, and finished with 12 runs allowed in 10.2 innings. Around that, Knight managed a 3.66 ERA in 162.1 Triple-A innings, and he was part of a failed Ugueth Urbina trade. The Yankees and Expos agreed to Knight and D'Angelo Jimenez for Urbina at the trade deadline, but both Knight and Urbina flunked their medical reviews, according to Buster Olney, so the trade was called off. (The Yankees eventually traded Jimenez for Jay Witasick and another prospect for Mark Wohlers to address their bullpen needs at the deadline.) Knight worked more up-and-down duty in 2002 and things went better than they did in 2001 -- three of his first five appearances were scoreless -- though he finished the year with 12 runs allowed in 8.2 big league innings. That was the end of the line for Knight in pinstripes. He finished his Yankees career with 24 runs allowed in 19.1 innings. His 10.71 ERA in second highest in franchise history among pitchers who appeared in at least 10 games:

1. Octavio Dotel: 10.80 ERA in 14 games
2. Brandon Knight: 10.71 ERA in 11 games
3. Jesse Orosco: 10.38 ERA in 15 games
4. David Weathers: 9.57 ERA in 21 games
5. George Clark: 9.00 ERA in 11 games

David Weathers, eh? That 9.57 ERA is easily forgiven when you allow one run in 11 postseason innings like Weathers did during the 1996 World Series run. Anyway, the Yankees cut Knight loose following the 2002 season and he signed with the Fukuoka Daiei Hawks in Japan. He eventually returned to the United States, spent some time in independent ball, appeared in four games with the 2008 Mets, then embarked on a six-year career in Korea from 2009-14. Things went so well in Korea that Knight is still there. He's been the pitching coach for the Kiwoon Heroes (formerly the Nexen Heroes) since 2016. Knight's playing career spanned 20 seasons (1995-2014) and he is about to enter year five as a coach. For a former 14th round draft pick with one of the worst ERAs in Yankees history, that's not a bad career. Not at all.

6. Rapid fire thoughts. Denny Larrondo, the first Yankees minor leaguer who tested positive for COVID-19, has completed his recovery and is no longer in isolation, Aaron Boone told Randy Miller. The second minor leaguer, who remains unidentified, is getting better but remains quarantined. Good news all around. The minor league complex will reopen soon (they started cutting grass and stuff earlier this week) but there will be restrictions on individual workouts and whatnot when it does reopen ... Got a couple injury updates to pass along (via Bryan Hoch): James Paxton (back surgery) is continuing his throwing program at home in Wisconsin and Aaron Hicks (Tommy John surgery) has started his throwing program. He's at home in Arizona. Paxton started throwing in Tampa right before the shutdown and was presumably a few weeks away from getting back on a mound. As for Hicks, he's working with a physical therapist and is actually a little ahead of schedule. Both guys still have a ways to go to complete their rehab, but progress is being made. Aaron Judge will go for another checkup on his rib in a few weeks and Giancarlo Stanton is pretty much ready to go. Positive injuries news this last week or so (of course, there's no games for players to get injured in right now, not that Yankees injuries are limited to game action anyway) ... And finally, commissioner Rob Manfred opened his mouth during his ESPN interview the other night and said something that didn't make me cringe. From Jeff Passan:

"The one thing I know for sure is baseball will be back," Manfred said. "Whenever it's safe to play, we'll be back. Our fans will be back. Our players will be back. And we will be part of the recovery, the healing in this country, from this particular pandemic. 

...

"I think it will mark a real milestone in the return to normalcy," he said. "I think you saw it after 9/11, in terms of the resumption of play. I was there in Shea Stadium that night we began playing. It was one of the most memorable games I've ever attended. It's an honor for our sport to be regarded in a way that we have been part of our country coming back from some horrific events, and we hope that we can play a similar role with respect to this one." 

Pretty good quote from the guy who called the World Series trophy a "piece of metal" a little more than a month ago.

John asks: As a follow-on to your "Pitching depth and a shortened season" comments on Tuesday. Would MLB consider increasing roster sizes in order to facilitate a shortened season with the maximum number of games (double headers and less off days)? 

Yes, I'm confident the league would expand rosters. Teams started 1995 with 28-man rosters following a two-week Spring Training, and if the plan is to play doubleheaders and cut down on off-days this year, then yes, teams will need larger rosters and I'm sure MLB will make that concession, otherwise the MLBPA wouldn't agree to a condensed schedule.

MLB was already set to implement a 26-man roster this season. Adding two more players and going with a 28-man roster like 1995 feels like the absolute minimum. Given the way pitchers are used today, a 30-man roster might be more appropriate. If not full-time, then maybe the days before, during, and after doubleheaders? I think that's reasonable.

Rob asks: Hey Mike, do you ever see a possibility where the league has every team make the postseason? I feel with the push in other leagues to expand the playoff field, I feel the potential cash cow for every team getting a shot in the postseason will be too much for owners to ignore. Scheduling would be a nightmare, however, I think owners would be willing to reduce the regular season for something like this.

Sam Miller has been championing the "every team should make the postseason" idea for a few years now. I don't expect it to happen anytime soon, maybe not even in our lifetimes, but I could see MLB getting there eventually. This would be the season to try some wacky stuff, so who knows, maybe they let every team in this year, realize it's amazing, and decide to continue it going forward.

The risk with this plan is diminishing returns. Whatever you gain in more postseason games you risk losing with a watered down postseason. The postseason is special because of its exclusivity. Lose that, and it's just an extension of the regular season. Then again, MLB will run the numbers beforehand, and if they decide to go ahead and let every team in the postseason, it'll be because they know (not think, know) it'll maximize profits. I don't think we'll see all 30 teams in the postseason anytime soon but it could happen eventually.

Ray asks: Let’s say a “spring training” starts in May or June. Could (would) those games be played at MLB ballparks within close proximity to each other, giving fans a chance to see games and owners and chance to make some money? Easier for the Yanks (Boston, Philly, Baltimore are all close) than Seattle.

Can't see it. Too much travel, even if you go play a three or four-game series, and the facilities aren't big enough. The day's exhibition game is only a small part of what happens at Spring Training. There are bullpen sessions being thrown, batting practice being taken, and fielding drills taking place on backfields. It's best to let the players prepare in a place designed to help them prepare rather than try to squeeze a few extra bucks out of exhibition games.

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)