March 24th, 2020: Judge, Ottavino, Sale, Shortened Season, Stanton

In a world without COVID-19, the Yankees would be preparing for tonight's exhibition season finale against the Blue Jays in Montreal right now. Instead, they're hunkered down at home waiting out the virus and wondering when the season will begin like the rest of us. Soon, I hope. Here are today's thoughts as Gerrit Cole plays catch with his pregnant wife Amy to keep his arm in shape.

1. Judge's lung. If I didn't know any better, I'd say the Yankees are messing with us all and trying to see who can come up with the most absurd yet believable injury. Apparently Aaron Judge had a collapsed lung in addition to the rib fracture? Good grief. Judge had his two-week checkup last Friday -- has it really only been two weeks? feels like two years -- and he said the rib is healing slowly, but as expected. "The bone is still about the same, slight improvement. The bone is healing the way it should be, so probably another test here in a couple more weeks and go from there," he told Mark Didtler. Doesn't sound like Judge is particularly close to starting baseball activity, though the shutdown means he has time on his side. At least the rib is healing. Judge also revealed the collapsed lung Friday. "(The) pneumothorax came back completely gone. A little thing on the lung that we were having a little issue with, but that was all healed up. Good to go, which means I can fly if I needed to go home," Judge said. The "pneumothorax" is the collapsed lung and the internet tells me there are different degrees of collapsed lung. It's not always a big traumatic thing that requires immediate intervention like on television. When did it happen, exactly? You'd think it happened on the same dive that caused the rib fracture, but Judge said he was only now cleared to fly. Was he given treatment that allowed him to fly during the postseason, or did they not know about the collapsed lung until recently, and he was unknowingly at risk while traveling with the team? Beats me. It's good the collapsed lung is healed, obviously. It also creates way more questions than answers. Article XIII(G)(4) of the Collective Bargaining Agreement covers announcing injuries:

For public relations purposes, a Club may disclose the following general information about employment-related injuries: (a) the nature of a Player’s injury, (b) the prognosis and the anticipated length of recovery from the injury, and (c) the treatment and surgical procedures undertaken or anticipated in regard to the injury. For any other medical condition that prevents a Player from rendering services to his Club, a Club may disclose only the fact that a medical condition is preventing the Player from rendering services to the Club and the anticipated length of the Player’s absence from the Club.

I guess the collapsed lung is considered a "medical condition that prevents a Player from rendering services to his Club," and thus did not have to be disclosed? The shoulder turned pectoral turned rib injury explained why Judge was out of action this spring, so no need to disclose the collapsed lung? I dunno. Whatever the reason, the collapsed lung was not announced until after it healed, so as far as the public is concerned, we're right back where we started: waiting for Judge's rib to heal. That process is ongoing but not yet complete. With any luck, the next checkup will bring back more good news, and a timetable for his return to baseball activity will come into focus. “That’s the silver lining in all of this, just having the ability to not feel rushed trying to get back for a certain date, especially since we really don’t have a date. Just trying to let it heal, don’t try to rush it," Judge told Didtler.

2. Ottavino's new pitch. Prior to the shutdown Adam Ottavino broke out a new delivery designed to help him combat the running game. Specifically, he sets his hands at his chest rather than at his waist, and he eliminated his glove tap. Ottavino was working on something else this spring too: a changeup. "The changeup has become a pitch for him. Seeing a lot against left-handed hitters and he has had really good results with it. He has had really good results with it and he has taken it into games. That will be a factor this year, especially against lefties to keep them off balance," Aaron Boone told George King two weeks ago. Ottavino appeared in four Grapefruit League games before the shutdown and only two were televised. I rewatched both and saw only two changeups among 34 total pitches. The first changeup was a bad pitch spiked in the dirt. The second was up and over the plate, and Rafael Devers hit it to the warning track. Here's the video. Based on the sample size of two pitches, Ottavino's changeup stinks. We don't make conclusions after two pitches though. Ottavino has not thrown a changeup regularly since 2013, and even then he only threw it a little more than 4% of the time. For all intents and purposes, he's trying to learn a new pitch. Not just a new pitch, but a new pitch specifically to combat left-handed batters, who have given him a hard time in recent years:

• 2019 vs. RHB: .177/.292/.266 (.255 wOBA) with 36.0 K% and 13.4 BB%
• 2019 vs. LHB: .241/.361/.392 (.317 wOBA) with 21.6 K% and 15.5 BB% 

Masahiro Tanaka worked on a cutter this spring to combat lefties. He's always thrown a cutter though. Tanaka's trying to improve an existing pitch. Ottavino has never had a reliable changeup. Spring Training is full of these "he's working on a new pitch" stories and very rarely do they amount to anything, and I'm not overly optimistic Ottavino can figure out a changeup and start neutralizing lefties. It would be cool if he did -- the shutdown gives him more time to work on it in meaningless situations, albeit in bullpen sessions rather than games -- and the fact he reinvented himself two years ago shows he has the aptitude and drive to make adjustments, but I'm not counting on it. Learning a new pitch is hard. Spring Training is the time to experiment with things so by all means, work on that changeup and see what happens. It doesn't need to be an out-pitch, necessarily. Just something to keep lefty hitters honest. Ottavino is already so good though, even with the susceptibility to lefties, and Aaron Boone did good work matching him up against the other team's tough righties last season. Even if he doesn't improve against lefties, that's fine. He's still really good. Ottavino knows his weaknesses (holding runners and lefties) and he's working on them. The Yankees are aware as well, and they've already shown they can maximize his effectiveness by using him in the right spots to limit his exposure to lefties.

3. Sale's Tommy John surgery. Over the weekend the Red Sox announced Chris Sale will undergo Tommy John surgery. It's not the most surprising news in the world -- Sale never looked quite right last year and elbow trouble ended his 2019 season in August -- though it is impressive he stayed healthy as long as he did. There were concerns about his durability dating back to his college days and how could there not have been? He's rail thin with that wild delivery. Ten years and +45 WAR later, he finally broke down. Anyway, I bring this up for two reasons. One, Sale's injury has an impact on the Yankees. He plays for a division rival, and even though the Red Sox have decided to take a step back in 2020, they don't figure to be a total pushover. Sale is one fewer ace-caliber pitcher the Yankees will face this year and likely early next year given the typical Tommy John surgery rehab timetable. And two, last offseason Brian Cashman said the White Sox wanted Luis Severino and another unnamed core Yankee when they asked about Sale during the 2016-17 offseason. (I assume that second player was Gary Sanchez, but who knows.) Sale's and Severino's paths since that offseason are freakishly similar. Both pitched at an ace level in 2017 and 2018 ...

...  before breaking down in 2019 and having Tommy John surgery in 2020. Sale was better from 2017-18 -- he also contributed quite a bit more in 2019 -- though we're arguing a top three pitcher in baseball vs. a top 10 pitcher in baseball. Arguing degrees of excellence isn't worth the time or the effort right now. It's impossible to know what would've happened had the Yankees pulled the trigger on Severino plus other guys for Sale prior to 2017. Maybe they win the 2017 World Series! Or maybe it doesn't matter at all, and the Red Sox instead trade for Justin Verlander and win the 2017 World Series and 2018 World Series too. I just thought Severino and Sale having their elbows rebuilt within a month of each other was an interesting bit of symmetry. The Yankees apparently had a choice between the two, and the pitchers managed to go down similar paths since then. Baseball, man. It can be weird like that.

4. 130 games and four weeks. MLB and the MLBPA are currently working through several shutdown-related issues and, over the weekend, the first two reports with potential time frames for the 2020 season surfaced. I mean reports with actual inside information, not speculation. First, Joel Sherman passed along details about service time negotiations:

The union’s recent proposal was that even if no games were played in 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic, players would receive full service time for the 2020 season as long as they had reached certain service time criteria in 2019 — the initial plan was at least 60 days of service. MLB countered that a full service year (normally 172 days) would be credited for 130 games or more and that after that players would receive credit for actual days played. Thus, if a season were reduced to 110 days (even if with doubleheaders more games were played than days), a player would get the 110 days of service.

The number that caught my eye is 130. Service time is a lifeblood of the sport and MLB (and their army of labor lawyers) did not pull 130 games out of thin air and include it in a service time proposal. Sherman's report indicates MLB is at the very least hoping for a 130-game season and possibly even planning for a 130-game season. If nothing else, this is the first time we're seeing MLB acknowledge a shortened season may happen. Commissioner Rob Manfred and the owners keep saying they hope to play a full 162-game season publicly, but that is becoming increasingly unlikely, and their service time proposals to the MLBPA reflect that. Whatever it ends up being, 130 games or otherwise, MLB is currently working on the mechanics of an abbreviated season. Doing anything else at this point would be negligent. And second, Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro told Ian Harrison he expects four weeks of Spring Training before the season can begin. “Knowing that so many players are not even having any access to throwing at all or hitting at all, but most importantly just throwing, and probably limited access to just training and exercise, it’s hard to imagine we could get ready in less than four weeks,” Shapiro said. I'm a bit surprised this came from the MLB side. You'd think MLB would push for the shortest possible Spring Training so they could begin playing those revenue-generating regular season games as soon as possible -- the MLBPA is the side that figures to push for a long Spring Training to protect the players -- but no, here is a long-tenured and high-ranking executive throwing a month out there. Shapiro has been in the game forever -- he started in the Indians' front office in the early 1990s -- and he knows he always has to be careful with his words. I don't think he'd throw a four-week Spring Training out there without some support from others within the game, be it team executives or MLB's head honchos. A four-week Spring Training leading into a 130-game regular season means the ball would have to get rolling relatively soon. Even pushing the postseason into November with neutral site games would mean Spring Training would have to begin May 15th, or thereabouts. Spring Training in May, regular season from June through October, postseason in November. Doable? I dunno. I feel that Spring Training beginning on May 15th is the absolute best case scenario right now.

5. Pitching depth and a shortened season. A shortened season is becoming increasingly likely and chances are MLB will squeeze as many games in as possible whenever the season does begin. That could mean doubleheaders -- the MLBPA resisted doubleheaders following the work stoppage in 1995 and they played a 144-game season instead, for what it's worth -- or fewer off-days or skipping the All-Star Game or all of the above (playing four, five, and even six-game series to cut down on travel seems worthwhile). I dunno, but the league will want to play as many games as possible to a) make as much money as possible, and b) maintain historical precedent (records, etc.), in that order. However many games they end up playing, the schedule figures to be abbreviated and compacted, and that increases the importance of pitching depth. It increases the importance of all depth, really, but especially pitching depth. Doubleheaders are going to wear out bullpens and necessitate spot starters, and fewer off-days will mean less rest for the regular five starters. Those occasional built-in rest days won't come around as often, which could mean using a spot starter every once in a while to avoid overworking your regulars. Depending when the season begins, the Yankees could have James Paxton available on Opening Day, and that'd be swell because right now they don't have a fifth starter. (I assume it would've been an opener.) They won't have Domingo German though. He'll start serving the final 63 games of his 81-game suspension once the season begins. Assuming the best and including Paxton, we know 11 pitchers who will be on the Opening Day roster (barring injury): Paxton, Zack Britton, Luis Cessa, Aroldis Chapman, Gerrit Cole, Chad Green, J.A. Happ, Tommy Kahnle, Jordan Montgomery, Adam Ottavino, and Masahiro Tanaka. The depth beyond them looks like this:

• RHP: Chad Bettis*, Deivi Garcia, David Hale*, Ben Heller, Jonathan Holder, Mike King, Brooks Kriske, Jonathan Loaisiga, Dan Otero, Nick Tropeano
• LHP: Luis Avilan*, Tyler Lyons*

* indicates the player can not be sent to the minors without passing through waivers once added to the 40-man roster

Eventually we could include Clarke Schmidt (and Albert Abreu) on the big league pitching depth chart but I'm not ready to do it on Opening Day. That's pretty good depth though. King and Tropeano are fine as optionable No. 6-7 starter types. Garcia and Loaisiga have considerable upside as multi-inning relief options -- Deivi could put himself in position to start games too -- and we could even include Hale in that mix given what we did last year. Bettis is a wildcard following hip surgery and it's unclear whether Avilan will even stick around as veteran with more than six years of service time on a minor league contract. The Yankees could pass on paying him the required $100,000 retention bonus to send him to Triple-A, and instead cut him loose during Spring Training 2.0. Prior to the shutdown, FanGraphs had the Yankees with the best pitching in baseball at +24.0 WAR, and that's without Luis Severino and with abbreviated seasons from German and Paxton. With the shutdown likely to condense the schedule and force teams to lean on their depth even moreso than usual, I feel like that could ultimately help the Yankees, especially if Paxton is available on Opening Day. Pitching depth has a way of disappearing, I know, but the Yankees are in the unique position of possibly getting pitching depth back before the season begins.

6. Remembering a random Yankee: Nick Green. Our series looking back at random Yankees continues with Green. The infielder, not the pitcher who is still in the farm system. We've already covered Erick Almonte and Aaron Guiel. The Yankees acquired Green in their first ever transaction with the (Devil) Rays franchise. It's one of only three trades involving the two AL East rivals:

• May 24th, 2006: Yankees acquire Nick Green for cash.
• April 2nd, 2016: Rays acquire Carlos Corporan for cash.
• Feb. 20th, 2018: Yankees send Nick Solak to Rays in Brandon Drury three-team trade.

Green, 27 at the time, was an up-and-down infielder the Yankees brought in as depth. They sent him to Triple-A following the trade, brought him up for one game as a placeholder on June 10th, then called him up for good when Robinson Cano went down with a hamstring injury in late-June. When Cano got hurt, Miguel Cairo took over at second base with Green assuming utility infielder duty. Green made his first start in pinstripes in a Subway Series game against the Mets on July 2nd and he both started and capped off their eight-run third inning. He drew a leadoff walk to start the frame, then, nine batters later, he hit a two-run home run to drive home the seventh and eighth runs of the inning. Here's the homer. Green went 1-for-3 with the homer and two walks in the game, and also helped cut down a runner at the plate with a relay throw in the early innings, before the Yankees broke it open. His first game as a Yankee was his most impactful -- that was "The Nick Green Game," if such a thing existed -- though Green also went 3-for-3 with two doubles against the Mariners on July 18th, 2-for-4 with a double against the Blue Jays on July 23rd, and 3-for-5 against the Mariners on August 23rd. In those four games Green went a combined 9-for-15 (.600) with a homer and three doubles. In all other games as a Yankee, he went 9-for-60 (.150) with one homer and two doubles. Cairo went down with an injury in August, so the Yankees kept Green around even after Cano returned. He played 46 games with New York that season and hit .240/.296/.387 in 82 plate appearances. His defense propped up his bat and made him worth +0.5 WAR in those 46 games, which is damn good for a utility infielder plucked off the scrap heap. The Yankees released Green after the season and he bounced around to 11 different organizations in the next seven seasons, including a second stint with the Yankees (he spent 2008 with Triple-A Scranton). After his 2006 stint in pinstripes, Green played another 148 games in the big leagues with the Mariners, Red Sox, Dodgers, Blue Jays, and Marlins -- 103 of those 148 games came with Boston in 2009 -- before calling it a career after the 2013 season. He's been part of the Braves broadcast team since 2015, doing pre- and postgame analyst work for FOX Sports South. Not a base post-playing career gig, that is. Cano's injury opened the door for Green and he had his best game as a Yankee in his first start, and it was against the Mets. Hard to make a better first impression than that.

7. Rapid fire thoughts. Giancarlo Stanton update: "G is doing great. If we were to start Spring Training games up tomorrow, he’d probably be ready to go. He’s been doing really well, hitting now for a few weeks, but running pretty much at full speed outside and changing directions. Doing pretty much all the things necessary to get into a game. He’s doing good and that’s the one silver lining, it’s a chance for guys to get healed up," Aaron Boone told Meredith Marakovits yesterday (per Bryan Hoch). That's good. Stanton was hitting in the cage last week and I guess he's ready to see live pitching. He would not have been ready for the original March 26th Opening Day but it sure sounds like he'll be ready for the new Opening Day, whenever that is ... In case you're wondering, the Yankees are limiting their workouts to three players at a time at the Tampa complex, Tyler Wade told Hoch. Players can use their team's complex for individual workouts (batting cage, weight room, etc.) and they have to be staggered. I've read a few teams are limiting workouts to 10 players at a time, but with two COVID-19 cases in minor league camp, the Yankees are being much more restrictive. Makes sense ... The Angels designated righty Taylor Cole for assignment over the weekend and he's interesting enough as a bottom of the 40-man roster depth guy. He threw 51.2 innings with a 5.92 ERA (3.29 FIP) last season and there was some good luck (5.9 HR/FB%) and bad luck (.366 BABIP) in there. Cole's a mid-90s fastball guy with a good changeup and a slider (video) who can go multiple innings and has an option remaining. Luis Severino is a 60-day injured list candidate, so the Yankees could claim Cole on waivers and easily add him to the 40-man roster, then bring him to Spring Training 2.0 and see what's what. If he stinks, drop him for someone else, otherwise it's another optionable depth arm. We're essentially talking about the 41st spot on the 40-man roster here, not even the 40th spot. Claiming Cole is a low-risk move that would add a little more depth as we head into a season of unknowns ... It is absolutely bonkers MLB and the MLBPA have not yet agreed to and enacted a transactions freeze. The real world is crazy enough as it is right now. Players have to worry about getting designated for assignment (like Cole) or released (like Hunter Strickland) on top of that? Come on. The NHL and NBA have implemented roster freezes, and while they were in the middle of their regular seasons when they shut down, MLB was in the middle of Spring Training. Games were going on and Opening Day wasn't too far away. As someone who loves transactions because they give me stuff to write about, it's crazy teams can make transactions right now. Get it together, MLB.

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)