March 17th, 2020: COVID-19 Shutdown, Abbreviated Season Ideas, Draft, German

How's everyone doing? Hanging in there? As someone who mostly works from home, the whole social distancing thing is familiar to me, but it's a big adjustment for a lot of people. It's important though. We Americans are pretty great at staying home and doing nothing. Do that for a few weeks and we'll get through this. This weekend I watched Uncut Gems (A+) and started Bob's Burgers. I love that show, but I'd only seen scattered episodes. The other night I started with Season 1, Episode 1, and I'm working my way through it. Haven't started any new books yet. I will soon enough. Anyway, here are today's thoughts. I'll still feeling my way through the early days of the shutdown, so forgive me if the content is lacking right now.

1. Updates on the shutdown. In less than a week, the baseball world has been turned upside down. The real world has been turned upside down, really, and baseball is part of it. A big part of it for people like myself (and I assume you if you're reading this). It's worth recapping the last week just to emphasize how quickly this has escalated.

Mon., March 9th: MLB (and the NBA, NHL, and MLS) bans media from the clubhouse in an effort to contain COVID-19. Baseball has been trying to get reporters out of the clubhouse for decades, so I wasn't surprised this was their first step. It was only a first step though. The stands were still packed during Spring Training game and the players (and coaches and other personnel) remained in close proximity. The Yankees lost to Didi Gregorius and the Phillies in Clearwater that afternoon.

Tues., March 10th: The Yankees beat the Blue Jays at home in Tampa on an otherwise typical day. The new media rules meant teams brought players out to speak to reporters in the hallway. Only change to the routine.

Weds., March 11th: The Yankees lost to the Marlins in Jupiter in the afternoon. That night NBA All-Star Rudy Gobert tested positive for COVID-19 and the NBA suspended its season indefinitely. Three Spring Training games (not the Yankees) were being played when the NBA made the announcement. The games continued.

Thurs., March 12th: The NHL announced it is suspending its season in the morning, citing their shared facilities with the NBA. Meanwhile, on Planet Baseball, Grapefruit League games began as scheduled at 1pm ET, including the Yankees and Nationals in West Palm Beach. At 3:11pm ET, MLB sent out a press release announcing Spring Training is suspended and Opening Day has been pushed back at least two weeks. The Yankees beat the Nationals with the final pitch thrown at approximately 3:52pm ET.

Fri., March 13th: MLB and the MLBPA announced players can either remain at their Spring Training site, return to their offseason home, or return to their team's home city. No vacations, basically. The Yankees voted unanimously to remain in Tampa. "We have a shot at a World Series title. We want to be prepared to seize that opportunity. Guys aren't panicking about this thing. We understand that it's serious, but the Yankees have a ton of resources in the area. We feel like this is a good place for us to be," union rep Zack Britton told Bryan Hoch. Aaron Boone and his coaches remained in Tampa as well. (As far as I know, the Padres were the only other team that voted to stay in Spring Training together. Every other team had some players go home and some players stay.)

Sat., March 14th: The Yankees held a light workout. Infielders took ground balls, pitchers played catch, hitters hit in the cage. “It’s very strange. It’s a difficult situation. We want to support and, obviously, that’s our job. We’ll see where the situation will take us. Every day it could change. Who knows what’s going to happen. As of right now, we’re here," bench coach Carlos Mendoza told Brendan Kuty.

Sun., March 15th: Brian Cashman announced an unnamed Yankees minor leaguer tested positive for COVID-19 and is quarantined. Dan Martin later identified the prospect as Denny Larrondo -- the Yankees gave him $550,000 two summers ago --  and he is the first pro baseball player to test positive. Cashman said the minor league complex (about a mile away from George M. Steinbrenner Field) is shut down until March 26th and the Major League facility is open only on a "limited scale." The entire complex underwent another deep clean (they've done several this month). “I think you just have to give them opportunity to process the information and make the best decisions they feel on an individual basis. I just suspect it’s gonna change because things have continued to change," Cashman told Martin when asked about the big leaguers staying in Tampa.

Mon., March 16th: Some Yankees players headed home as MLB and the MLBPA advised teams to halt workouts. Spring Training facilities have not been shut down, but the complexes will be staffed by skeleton crews and any players who stay in the area -- many make their homes near their Spring Training sites -- have to their stagger their time at the complex. Marly Rivera says the Blue Jays are allowing 10 players at the complex at a time, though I don't know if that applies to every team. "A lot of guys are planning on sticking around. Some guys are going home for a little while. It looks like the season is going to be pushed back further. I think guys are going to take some time at home, but there’s a lot of guys still here," Britton told Hoch this morning.

In the span of a week, we went from business as usual to baseball being shut down with no end in sight. Look how different things were five days ago and imagine what they'll be like five days from now. It's kinda scary! Cashman says the Yankees have quarantined all their minor leaguers -- Jeff Passan reports the Yankees are delivering food to everyone, and one minor leaguer told Erik Boland the team is "supplying us with to-go boxes and waters, in my opinion more than enough to get by each day. No player will be going hungry or dehydrated during the quarantine, that's for damn sure" -- and that Larrondo did not come into contact with anyone on the Major League side, but it's impossible to know that with any certainty. It can take up to 14 days for symptoms to show, and even if the minor leaguer did not mingle with any big league players, what about coaches? Or another player who spent time with the big leaguers? Impossible to know and it's naive to think the virus is not spreading through camp. That's why MLB is shutting everything down. They're hoping for the best and preparing for the worst. Sunday night the CDC recommended no public gatherings of at least 50 people for at least eight weeks, and MLB confirmed yesterday they will adhere to the recommendation. It's a recommendation, not a mandate, but I would've been stunned if MLB did not comply. The recommendation rules out baseball games until at least mid-May (even without fans in the stands, the two 26-man rosters together exceed 50 people). More drastic measures are being taken every day and we still have a ways to go to get where other places in the world (i.e. Italy) have gone as they try to get the virus contained. We'll have baseball again at some point. Maybe in May, maybe in July, maybe next year, but at some point. Right now, we are in uncharted territory as a society and we're all trying to figure it out as we go, including MLB.

2. Ideas for MLB's return. I am hopeful we will have baseball at some point this year. I have no idea when, but I am hopeful, mostly because MLB and the owners will do everything possible to play games and make money. They're not going to punt an entire season's worth of revenue unless it is absolutely necessary. If we have baseball this year, it'll likely be an abbreviated season (120 games? 100 games? 80 games?) and I've been wondering what MLB could look like when it returns. Baseball is a sport steeped in tradition, sometimes even to its detriment, and an abbreviated season would force MLB to change things up. Retaining existing fans and cultivating new fans will be a priority -- I love baseball and am not going anywhere, but what about casual fans who lose interest in the sport during the shutdown? -- and I'm not sure sticking to the same old does the trick. I have two ideas to spice up what figures to be an abbreviated 2020 season. Let's get to 'em.

All-Star Opening Day

It seems the absolute earliest the season will begin in mid-to-late May. More likely, it will be June or even July. The longer the shutdown, the longer Spring Training 2.0 needs to be to get players ready. Since we'll have to start at midseason, I say start the season with the All-Star Game. A grand opening event to celebrate the return of baseball. The All-Star Game primarily rewards players for great first halves. The All-Star Opening Day would be geared more toward creating buzz and getting people excited about baseball's return. We have no stats to determine All-Star star selections, so just take the best players and the biggest names. Get everyone fans want to see on one field to begin the season. American League vs. National League, each team sends one pitcher and one position player, so that's a 30-man roster. Here are my proposed teams:

The priority is marketing the game -- Charlie Morton is better than Blake Snell, but MLB can market Snell to new fans as a recent Cy Young winner and one of the game's brightest young stars -- and connecting with as many fans as possible. The big names (Trout, Yelich, etc.) are important, but you also want people to pay attention in Japan (Darvish, Kikuchi, Ohtani), South Korea (Choi, Choo, Ryu), Canada (Votto, Soroka), Australia (Hendriks), the Netherlands (Bogaerts), Hawaii (Yates), so on and so forth. Reach as many fans as possible. Also, mic up the players, especially the pitchers who won't pitch. Archer kinda sucks now, but he's a really funny and interesting guy, and would be great with a microphone in the dugout. Maybe even bring in guest coaches. Ichiro Suzuki could coach first base for the AL in a Mariners uniform. Get CC Sabathia in the dugout as the pitching coach. Let David Ortiz make a speech and throw out the first pitch. The bigger the event, the better. The All-Star Game is supposed to be at Dodger Stadium this year, so maybe let the Angels (Anthony Rendon) and Dodgers (Cody Bellinger) carry a third player in the event and call it 31-man rosters? Point is, starting the abbreviated season with one large MLB event rather than 15 games scattered across the country would be a wonderful way to welcome back baseball. It's one of those ideas that is so dumb I think it just might work. (I think it would be important to have the traditional Opening Day the very next day too. You don't want the All-Star Game, then an off-day, then Opening Day. Jump right into the regular season the next afternoon and ride that momentum. The players selected to the All-Star Game would need that day off for travel, which is a bummer, but every team would be on equal footing since their stars are away. One day without Judge or Betts or Trout won't be the end of the world. I think it's important to start the season right after the All-Star Game and not force fans to sit through another off-day.) (I decided to turn this idea into a CBS post, so y'all got an exclusive preview.)

Expanded Postseason

The shorter the season, the more likely it is general baseball randomness wreaks havoc on the standings. The 162-game schedule usually sorts that all out. What if they have to play 80 games though? This would've been the postseason bracket after 80 Yankees games last year:

AL Wild Card Game: Rangers at Rays
ALDS1: Wild Card Game winner at Twins
ALDS2: Astros at Yankees

NL Wild Card Game: Phillies at Rockies
NLDS1: Wild Card Game winner at Dodgers
NLDS2: Cubs at Braves

Only two of the five eventual NL postseason teams were in postseason position after 80 games last season. The Rockies went from hosting the Wild Card Game at the 80-game point to finishing 18 games (!) out of a postseason spot after 162 games. Weird things happen in small sample sizes, and in baseball, 80 games can constitute a small sample. To make the postseason races a little more fair, I think MLB will have to expand the postseason field in 2020. The seven-team plan with a best-of-three Wild Card round that was floated a few weeks ago is dumb. Forget that. I think we go nine teams per league. The three division winners are the Nos. 1-3 seeds and get homefield advantage, then the four non-division winners with the best records are the Nos. 4-7 seeds. The two best remaining teams play a Wild Card Game to determine the No. 8 seed. After that, you do a traditional 1 vs. 8, 2 vs. 7, 3 vs. 6, 4 vs. 5 bracket style tournament with four best-of-seven rounds. These would have been last year's brackets at the 80-game point:

American League
No. 1 Twins vs. No. 8 (Angels vs. Athletics)
No. 2 Yankees vs. No. 7 Red Sox
No. 3 Astros vs. No. 6 Indians
No. 4 Rays vs. No. 5 Rangers

National League
No. 1 Dodgers vs. No. 8 (Diamondbacks vs. Padres)
No. 2 Braves vs. No. 7 Cardinals
No. 3 Cubs vs. No. 6 Brewers
No. 4 Rockies vs. No. 5 Phillies

The eventual World Series champion Nationals wouldn't have qualified for the postseason with our expanded format! Crazy. They were a half-game behind the Padres at the 80-game point. Like I said, weird things happen in small samples. Because the regular season will be abbreviated, we're not asking the players to do anything extreme. The maximum number of postseason games a team can play is 29 (Wild Card Game plus four full best-of-seven series) and it seems inevitable MLB will have to chop more (much more) than 29 games off the regular season schedule. Four best-of-seven series after a 162-game season is too much. You'd be putting the players at risk of injury. After a shorter season though, you can swing the longer postseason. The expanded postseason format accomplishes two things. One, it gives teams a chance at the postseason even if their true talent level doesn't shine through during the abbreviated regular season. You still have to be somewhat competent to get in -- the worst team in the postseason fields above are the 40-40 Padres -- but a poor start won't necessarily sink your season either. You'll still have a chance. And two, it creates more postseason games and more revenue. MLB and the 30 teams are going to lose a ton of money during the shutdown. No games means there's nothing to generate revenue. MLB and the owners take a hit, and that means the players will take a hit in free agency down the road. More postseason games equal more money and better financial health for the sport going forward. The downside to an expanded postseason field is what, a bad team beats a good team in a short series? That happens all the time and hey, baseball could benefit from a Cinderella run. That could attract fans, especially in the local market. MLB will have no choice but to call an audible(s) following the shutdown and step out of their comfort zone, which isn't a bad thing. MLB could stand to take more risks with its product in an effort to grow the sport. An All-Star Opening Day and an expanded postseason format could be fun and get people back into the sport (or, gasp, even attract new fans). “They’re going to want to try to get in as many games as possible, so it’s going to tack on to the end of the season. The season is going to carry on longer, so you’re going to potentially be in warm weather spots or domed situations. That may lend itself to some neutral site situations. This is an opportunity to be creative. Maybe at the end of it all we’ll get to look at it and say, ‘Hey, this worked. This is something we’d like to implement moving forward,'" Aaron Boone said during a radio interview yesterday (per Marly Rivera).  

3. MLB shuts down scouting. According to Carlos Collazo, MLB ordered teams to halt their amateur scouting operations during the shutdown. I was planning to write about the draft and international free agency today anyway, so the directive is conveniently timed. Here is a snippet of the memo MLB sent out:

(E)ffective immediately, the Commissioner's Office hereby imposes a temporary prohibition on all Club scouting activities, both domestic and international. During this time, Clubs may not hold tryouts (public or private) or attend non-Club amateur baseball events (e.g. games, showcases, workouts). Clubs also may not conduct in-home or other in-person visits or administer any tests or assessments of amateur players that are done as part of the pre-draft or pre-signing process. In addition, Clubs may not encourage players to conduct tryouts, workouts or games that Clubs would be able to watch remotely.

Last week the NCAA canceled all winter and spring championships, including the College World Series, and most high school athletics around the country have been suspended or canceled as well. Even if teams wanted to continue scouting, there are no games to scout, and no workouts are being held. The entire amateur talent acquisition process is on hold. The international signing period is scheduled to open July 2nd, as always, with the draft slated to begin June 10th. In the memo, MLB says they have "not made any decisions" regarding the draft and international free agency and will "provide guidance" as soon as possible. They're still figuring out what to do, basically. MLB and the MLBPA have a lot on their plate and I assume amateur players are among their lowest priorities at the moment. Pushing the draft and international free agency back to the offseason seems to make the most sense. That would (hopefully) give players time to play in makeshift summer and fall leagues, and MLB to conduct workout events. I feel terrible for this year's draft and international free agent kids. This is supposed to be a very exciting time for them -- quite a few were weeks away from life-changing money before the shutdown -- and instead everything has been put on hold. Shutting down the sport and putting amateur scouting on hold is absolutely the right call, but damn, it sucks so much. I feel so sorry for those kids. Whenever the draft and international free agency happen, the Yankees will be handicapped. They forfeited their second and fifth round draft picks, plus $1M in international bonus money, to sign Gerrit Cole over the winter. Trading for an extra draft pick or extra bonus pool money seemed worthwhile prior to the shutdown. Now? I have no idea. There are no scouts on the road and no games to scout. How do you prepare for a draft?

4. Remembering a random Yankee: Aaron Guiel. We've reached the end of our series looking at ways each core Yankee can improve in 2020. Good timing, huh? The final entry was Tommy Kahnle. You can find links back to every other player there. With MLB shut down for the foreseeable future, I'm going to start another series to hold us over. This time we're going to Remember Some Guys. Each post we'll look back a random Yankee who did something notable in pinstripes. Everyone has a story to be told. We begin this new series today with 2006 Yankee Aaron Guiel. Here is photo evidence the man did in fact play for the Yankees at one point (photo via AP)

Hideki Matsui and Gary Sheffield went down with wrist injuries early in that 2006 season, and while Melky Cabrera did fine work as a fill-in, the Yankees still needed outfield help. They claimed Guiel off waivers from the Royals -- the eventual 62-100 Royals -- on July 6th and gave the lefty hitter at-bats against right-handed pitchers. Guiel scored three runs in his first game as a Yankee, went 2-for-2 with a home run and a walk in his second start, then a week later he went deep in back-to-back games. "For me to be able to do that, it's very exciting. Anytime I'm in the lineup, I want to be able to do something to help give us a win," Guiel told Tyler Kepner after breaking a game open with three-run homer against the Rangers on July 25th. Five days later he was sent to Triple-A to make room for trade deadline addition Bobby Abreu. Guiel hit .258/.324/.581 with three homers in 34 plate appearances as a Yankee up to that point. He saw action as a September call-up and did well, and finished the season with a .256/.337/.439 (103 wRC+) batting line and four homers in 92 plate appearances in pinstripes. Guiel never played in the big leagues again. He signed with the Yakult Swallows in Japan the next season and had success there, hitting .244/.354/.488 with 73 homers from 2007-09. Guiel retired following the 2011 season and, as best I can tell, he now builds pools in Arizona. Ninety-two plate appearances, at least one clutch home run, and +0.5 WAR from today's random Yankee. Guiel was Cameron Maybin before it was cool. (I can't find any video of Guiel's homers in pinstripes. You've let me down, internet.) 

5. Rapid fire thoughts. The upcoming service time battle is going to be fierce. The MLBPA is going to want players credited with a full season in 2020 no matter how many games they play, and MLB and the owners will resist. The Dodgers traded for one year of Mookie Betts. Could they really lose that year, or even most of that year, to the shutdown? I don't know how to solve that problem, but I suspect this will be a major sticking point once MLB and MLBPA shift their focus from COVID-19 prevention to getting the 2020 season underway ... We have clarity on Domingo German's suspension. Brian Cashman confirmed German can not serve his suspension during the shutdown, similar to a player serving a suspension while on the injured list. His 63 games begin whenever baseball returns. "He has a suspension in the amount of games. It doesn’t start until the schedule starts. The suspension is in games, so the bottom line is, until those games come off the board, that’s how long his suspension is going to last," Cashman told Ken Davidoff. That means there's a non-zero chance German won't pitch at all in 2020, depending when the season begins ... Remember when commissioner Rob Manfred said the Red Sox would be disciplined for the sign-stealing scandal soon? On Feb. 16th, long before anyone was thinking about MLB being shut down for the virus, Manfred said he expected to have a resolution by the end of the following week. The following week then came and went, and so did the week after that, and then the week after that MLB shut down. The delay happened well before the shutdown. Obviously MLB has more important things to handle now, but why the delay? I don't think Manfred & Co. were intentionally dragging their feet. They wanted it over and done with. My guess is new information came to light and prompted additional investigation time. Probably not a good sign for the Red Sox, if that's what happened. Their sign-stealing investigation is still pending and it figures to be a while now until we get resolution.

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)