COVID-19 shutdown: What happens now and what does it mean for the Yankees?

Along with pretty much every amateur and professional sports league around the world, Major League Baseball is on indefinite hiatus due to the COVID-19 outbreak. Spring Training has been suspended and Opening Day will be delayed at least two weeks. The minor league season has been delayed as well.

The shutdown has created a lot of questions (about baseball, about the virus, about a lot of things) and I looked for as many answers as possible for my own sake. As someone with an outlet, I wanted to pass along the information as well. Here's what we currently know about the shutdown, what it means for baseball, and what it means for the Yankees.

When is baseball coming back?

Eventually. That's the only answer right now. The earliest the season can begin is April 9th but that seems like a long shot. Given where the United States is in our outbreak relative to other countries that were hit earlier, things are going to worse before they get better. I don't see how the season begins in four weeks.

Earlier today the extremely plugged in Jeff Passan said people in baseball (players, owners, etc.) do not expect games to begin until at least May. Some models indicate the outbreak will peak between April and June. Illinois governor J.B. Pritzker is pushing the state's sports teams to delay games until May 1st, which would impact the Cubs and White Sox.

What is the required level of containment for games to resume, even without spectators? I don't know and I don't think anyone knows right now. No one knows when MLB or sports in general are coming back. The absolute earliest we'll see regular season baseball is April 9th. Realistically, this is all very much week-to-week.

What are the players doing in the meantime?

For now, players will remain in Arizona and Florida at their Spring Training sites, though that will be subject to change. At some point they are going to want to go home -- they're going to need to go home -- to be with their families. MLB and the MLBPA will spend today and the weekend working together to figure out how exactly to proceed.

"My understanding right now is that we’ll stay here. We’ll continue to work out as a club but (we're) not playing other teams or anything like that," Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch. "And my guess is it remains a fluid situation. We'll just take MLB's lead and the situation's lead ... This is a unique situation that's bigger than baseball. You want to be doing your part on behalf of the world. We'll be cooperative and try to play our part the best we can."

A few teams -- not the Yankees as far as I know -- announced they are tentatively planning to hold workouts this weekend that will be closed to the public. That seems to be the plan for the foreseeable future. Keep working out in case this does pass quickly. Eventually MLB and the MLBPA will have to come up with a more long-term plan.

What happens when baseball comes back?

The obvious precedent is 1995. The work stoppage ended April 2nd and MLB played a 144-game season starting April 26th. There was a two-week Spring Training crash course before that, and teams started the season with 28-man rosters as everyone got back up to speed. I suspect MLB would love to follow the same plan this year.

Diamondbacks CEO Derrick Hall told Zach Buchanan the tentative plan is to pick up the regular season at whatever point play resumes. So if play does begin on April 9th, I guess that means the Yankees would play what would've been the series finale against the Orioles at home that day, then begin a West Coast road trip the next day? Weird.

Hall says if only a few games are missed, MLB could make them up on the back end of the schedule. Making games up with doubleheaders seem unlikely -- the union rejected them in 1995 -- and Ken Rosenthal reports MLB is already discussing playing games at neutral sites (i.e domed and retractable roof stadiums) should the postseason get pushed back into November.

Other potential solutions reportedly include eliminating the All-Star break and using that week to make up games, and revising the postseason format following a shorter regular season. Fewer regular season games mean the standings will be more vulnerable to randomness. The 162-game season usually sorts all that out.

Right now, my guess is the 1995 plan is what MLB hopes to do. Should the shutdown linger beyond April, which seems likely, they'll have to adjust. 

Are players going to get paid?

Probably not. Players don't get paid during Spring Training, but the potential for a shortened regular season is very real. The standard player contract includes a clause allowing MLB to suspend all contracts during a "national emergency," and it is no coincidence MLB's press release announcing the shutdown said this (emphasis mine):

Following a call with the 30 Clubs, and after consultation with the Major League Baseball Players Association, Commissioner Robert D. Manfred, Jr. today announced that MLB has decided to suspend Spring Training games and to delay the start of the 2020 regular season by at least two weeks due to the national emergency created by the coronavirus pandemic. This action is being taken in the interests of the safety and well-being of our players, Clubs and our millions of loyal fans.  

Yeah, the owners aren't paying anyone during the shutdown. Fans won't feel bad for the big leagues and most of them will be fine, even the guys in their cheap pre-arbitration years. Minor leaguers though? Many of them will not be fine. They are underpaid to start with and now they don't know when their next paycheck is coming.

Stadium workers (concessions, ushers, etc.) will be impacted as well and they are way more vulnerable than big league ballplayers. Kevin Love donated $100,000 to help arena workers impacted by the shutdown and several NBA teams (Cavaliers, Hawks, Mavericks) have promised wages to arena workers. So have the New Jersey Devils, according to Elliotte Friedman. Needless to say, MLB should follow suit. (Pay minor leaguers too while you're at it.)

Can teams make transactions during the shutdown?

Probably not. Theo Epstein told Jake Seiner that MLB is considering a roster freeze during the shutdown, which seems like the only logical solution to me. That would mean no trades, no free agent signings, no minor league demotions, no releases, etc. I assume opt-out clauses would be delayed as well (there were a ton coming up at the end of Spring Training).

MLB and the MLBPA will have to figure out what the shutdown means for service time too. Do players still get credit for a full season? You know the union will push for it, and MLB will push back claiming the shutdown is not their fault, so they shouldn't be punished. With the Collective Bargaining Agreement set to expire next year, this could be a real sticking point.

What about the amateur draft?

The College World Series has already been canceled and many college conferences have already announced the rest of their season has been canceled. Eventually all games will be canceled, I imagine. Same goes for the high school level, which means teams won't get an opportunity to scout players before the June draft.

Teams have pulled their scouts off the road -- Brian Cashman told Randy Miller the Yankees have sent their pro scouts home and banned travel for their amateur scouts -- so there are no games and no one to watch them anyway. Maybe MLB will delay the draft to give players a chance to play summer ball? I'm not sure, but clearly the draft will be affected.

Also, MLB was slated to move the draft to Omaha this year, site of the College World Series. Good idea! It means more players would be present and would make for a more fun event. Obviously that is off the table now. There will be no College World Series this year.

Alright, so what does the shutdown mean for the Yankees?

It feels kinda icky to discuss how a global pandemic can help a sports team, but there is an on-field impact here, and we should talk about it. Most immediately, the shutdown means the Yankees will play fewer games without their injured players early in the season. That includes Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, James Paxton, and Giancarlo Stanton. (Not Luis Severino though, sadly.)

"For me, I wouldn’t mind a couple more weeks to recover. I don’t want the season to be delayed," Judge told Ken Davidoff. “I’m feeling great. We’re progressing really well. I feel like I might be ahead of schedule. I don’t know what the schedule is, but I feel like I’m kind of pushing their timeline as much as I can. We’re going to start ramping up things here, and hopefully I’m trying to get this CT scan done as soon as I can."

I'm not sure what the shutdown means for Domingo German. Players are allowed to serve performance-enhancing drug suspensions while on the injured list, but this is not a PED suspension, and this isn't an injured list situation. Can a player serve a suspension during a national emergency? German might have to serve his 63 games no matter what.

There's also J.A. Happ's vesting option. He locks in a $17M salary next year with 27 starts or 165 innings in 2020. There are a several vesting options around the league (Jon Lester and Charlie Morton each have one, for example) and this is something MLB and the MLBPA will have to figure out at some point. The current criteria has been rendered impossible.

The easiest solution would seem to be pro-rating the criteria. Let's say MLB plays a 108-game season in 2020, hypothetically. That is 66.7% of a full 162-game season. In that case, Happ's vesting option criteria would become 18 starts or 108.2 innings. Easy enough, right? Maybe I'm missing something obvious, but pro-rating seems like the way to go.

As noted early, the D-Backs CEO said the tentative plan is to pick up the regular season at whichever point in the schedule play begins. If the season begins May 1st, hypothetically, the Yankees would miss 14 combined games against the crummy Orioles and Tigers. Yikes! That would make their remaining schedule that much more difficult.

Right now, the only known benefit (ick) of the shutdown is the Yankees playing fewer games without their injured players. They all have more time to heal up before play begins. We are still in wait and see mode with regard to German's suspension, Happ's vesting option, the schedule, service time considerations, and more.

(MLB is going to lose a lot -- a lot -- of money during the shutdown. Potentially billions. Even if they make up games during the All-Star break and create additional postseason games, the sport will lose a lot of money. That'll inevitably hurt free agency and the salary structure in the future.)

What are you going to write about?

Beats me. Never had to blog through a shutdown or work stoppage until now. I keep a list of ideas, so I'll work through that, and y'all can continue sending in mailbag questions too (RABmailbag at gmail dot com). The Patreon isn't going away during the shutdown though. We'll figure it out together as we go.

As for what I'm planning to do with no baseball, I have a big backlog of books to read and tv shows and movies to watch. As long as Netflix doesn't start charging by the minute, I'll be in good shape. I recently finished Mr. Robot and thoroughly enjoyed it. Top five show all-time for me. Complex show, but if you're into psychological dramas, check it out.