February 18th, 2020: Manfred, Judge, Tanaka, Happ, Bettis, Cole, Andujar

In four short days Yankees baseball will be on your television. The Yankees begin Grapefruit League play at home against the Blue Jays this Saturday. No word on the starting pitcher yet but the game will be on YES. I can't wait. Now here are today's thoughts as MLB's commissioner says he's too busy dealing with his sport's rampant cheating to think about its overt racism.

1. "A piece of metal." Over the weekend ownership stooge Rob Manfred held his annual Spring Training press conference in Florida -- he has another one coming up in Arizona later today -- and he was of course asked about the Astros sign-stealing scandal. Here's what he said in response to a question about stripping the 2017 World Series title:

"The idea of an asterisk or asking for a piece of metal back seems like a futile act. People will always know something was different about the 2017 season, and whether we made that decision right or wrong, we undertook a thorough investigation, and had the intestinal fortitude to share the results of the investigation, even when those results were not very pretty." 

A piece of metal! This buffoon called the World Series trophy -- the Commissioner's Trophy -- a piece of metal like it's an old Pinto or an umbrella that's been blown inside-out. Baseball is a $10 billion a year industry that revolves around that piece of metal. Players work their entire lives to win it. Fans dedicate countless hours (and countless dollars) to following their favorite team as they pursue it. The entire lifeblood of the sport is that piece of metal and the singular goal of winning it, and here is the commissioner -- the person responsible for overseeing the game and its best interests -- downplaying its significance. How stupid, gross, and yet so perfectly emblematic of the times. Baseball owners prioritize profits over winning, the widespread tanking tells us that, and Manfred just came out and said it. This isn't a poor choice of words. This is the commissioner saying the quiet part out loud. Justin Turner ripped Manfred for the piece of metal comment -- "For him to devalue it the way he did yesterday just tells me how out of touch he is with the players in this game. At this point the only thing devaluing that trophy is that it says 'commissioner' on it," he told Jorge Castillo -- and I am certain Turner is not the only player who feels that way. Manfred just told every player in the game the thing they are most trying to achieve is just a dinky little piece of metal. That's unacceptable. The commissioner trivializing the World Series trophy is straight up unacceptable and he needs apologize and wear all the ridicule thrown his way. Many opposing players have come out and said the Astros weren't punished enough -- Mike Trout even said so and he's as mild-mannered as it gets -- and, as crappy as things are in baseball in general right now, I can't remember the last time the players were this united about something. They all seem to agree the Astros were not punished enough and that Manfred screwed this up. That unity can be a very powerful tool. I don't expect it to happen, not in a million years, but what if, for example, every non-Astros player walked out of camp tomorrow and demanded the Astros vacate the 2017 World Series title or that Manfred resign? The owners would be on Manfred's side, of course, but this isn't a collective bargaining issue. It's much easier to strip away that World Series title or replace Manfred than agree to a new labor contract. Like I said, it's not going to happen, but the players are united enough right now that it at least seems possible. Even last spring, after the frigid free agent market, I couldn't see them coming together to do something like that. Now? The chances have been upgrade from none to slim. The players are angry -- not upset or disturbed, they're angry -- and they have the public on their side too. Everyone hates the Astros and I can't imagine there are many fans out there championing Manfred. Last week I said the Codebreaker report should be the beginning of the end for Manfred. This is just another step in that direction. The guy is digging his own professional grave with his words and his actions. A piece of metal? Please. That piece of metal is far more important and far more meaningful to the players and the fans than Manfred ever could be.

2. 2017 AL MVP race. I guess this was inevitable. With the Astros being outed as no good dirty cheaters, the 2017 AL MVP race has been relitigated the last few days. Cody Bellinger, Bryce Harper, Kris Bryant, and Trevor Bauer (subs. req'd) have all said Jose Altuve stole the 2017 MVP from Aaron Judge or at least alluded to it. Altuve won MVP handily -- he received 27 first place votes to Judge's two (Jose Ramirez received the other one) -- though the numbers were closer than the voting would lead you to believe. The comparison:

Judge thoroughly outproduced Altuve at the plate -- he reached base 15 more times and had 17 more total bases in only 16 more plate appearances -- and was a better defender, albeit at a less skilled position. Altuve won MVP because he was the best player on arguably the best team in the league, because Judge had that ugly slump in August, and because Judge was deemed not clutch. Remember that? The numbers:

Judge with runners in scoring position: .262/.390/.624 (152 wRC+)
Altuve with runners in scoring position: .303/.392/.439 (124 wRC+) 

Judge in high leverage situations: .240/.356/.521 (108 wRC+)
Altuve in high leverage situations: .326/.408/.488 (143 wRC+)

Thanks to the high leverage performance, Altuve had a big advantage in win probability added (+3.51 to +2.10) and clutch score (-0.56 to -3.64). The August slump and the high leverage numbers were enough to sway the vote in his favor. Altuve also won MVP because he cheated. Carlos Correa (subs. req'd) says Altuve did not take part in the banging scheme -- "Jose Altuve was the one guy that didn’t use the trash can," Correa said -- and the data backs that up. Astros fan Tony Adams went through 2017 Astros home games and logged over 8,200 pitches, and found more than 1,100 garbage can bangs. Altuve was at the plate for only 24 of them, the fewest among Astros regulars. The thing is, even if Altuve did not take part in the scheme -- the Astros have earned zero benefit of the doubt -- he definitely didn't do anything to stop the cheating, and he had no problem with his teammates banging trash cans to get on base in front of him or drive him in behind him. It's cheating. Altuve allowed it to happen and it was an unfair advantage. He was complicit. Judge should've won MVP anyway because he had superior numbers and because he was far more important to the 91-win Wild Card Yankees than Altuve was to a 101-win Astros team that won the AL West by 21 games. The BBWAA is not taking away the MVP -- MVP is the BBWAA's award, not MLB's, and I promise you the BBWAA is not going down that road -- but yes, it is absolutely fair to say Altuve stole the award from Judge. His team cheated and he benefited, full stop. Other players were hurt by Houston's cheating much more than Judge -- think about the fringe pitchers who got hit hard by the Astros that year and never appeared in another MLB game (there are at least two: Mike Bolsinger and Cesar Valdez) -- but the cheating took money out of his pocket. Going into arbitration with an MVP win is much more lucrative than an MVP runner-up. Judge deleted his Instagram post congratulating Altuve, so there is some animosity there, though good luck getting him to admit it. He's not someone who will publicly blast an opposing player. I bet he feels wronged though.

3. Tanaka's new pitch. Spring Training has arrived and that means two things: players are in the best shape of their lives and pitchers are learning new pitches. We read about it every spring, like clockwork. This year's new pitch guy: Masahiro Tanaka. Lindsey Adler (subs. req'd) says Tanaka is working on a cutter this spring. He has thrown a cutter in the past but very infrequently (45 in 2019), and some of the pitch classifications look wrong to me. This pitch was classified a cutter but the grip sure looks like a splitter:

This cutter looks like a backup slider. This cutter looks like an actual cutter. Cutters are typically used to neutralize batters on the opposite side of the plate -- CC Sabathia carved out a second phase to his career by crowding righties inside with the cutter -- and lefties hit .285/.331/.508 (.349 wOBA) against Tanaka last year compared to .237/.270/.393 (.279 wOBA) for righties. Tanaka's platoon split was much smaller (nonexistent, even) in prior seasons and last year's lefty problems could be a one-year fluke. It happens. I think it's something more than that though. Last year Tanaka lost his trademark splitter, a pitch typically used against hitters on the opposite side of the plate. Some quick numbers on his splitter usage:

2019 vs. RHB: 22.2% thrown
2017-19 vs. RHB: 22.5% thrown

2019 vs LHB: 33.7% thrown
2017-19 vs. LHB: 35.9% thrown

Tanaka throws lots of splitters to lefties and that pitch wasn't behaving last year, and they hit him pretty hard. I don't think the misbehaving splitter and the issues against lefties are a coincidence, and I don't think it's a coincidence Tanaka is now working on a cutter. That's a pitch typically used against opposite hand hitters. Seems to me he's working to add a new pitch -- or perfect a seldom-used existing pitch -- to help address a weakness. With any luck, this year's baseball will have nice high seams that allow Tanaka to throw his trademark splitter. That would be the best outcome. Short of that, adding a little cut fastball would be the next best thing. Tanaka is a master craftsman who's made a series of adjustments over the years -- he fully adopted the anti-fastball philosophy and, more notably, he changed the grip on his splitter at midseason last year -- though that doesn't necessarily mean he will master the cutter. Not every pitcher can throw every pitch. Tanaka doesn't need to master the splitter though. He just needs it to keep hitters honest, not put them away. If the cutter becomes a legitimate weapon, awesome. If not, well, trying to develop a new pitch is what pitchers do in Spring Training. The cutter is a #thingtowatch during Grapefruit League play. "I thought it was sharp today. The slider was a little bit off, but I thought he executed his split and really the cutter which is a focal point for him. If he can incorporate that, I think it becomes something that really opens up the other half of the plate and goes a long way in setting up his split and his slider," Aaron Boone told George King yesterday. (Aside: Tanaka threw live batting practice yesterday, so he is right where he needs to be this spring. No delay following the elbow bone spur surgery in October.)

4. How can he improve? J.A. Happ. Next up in our series looking at each core 2020 Yankee is a pitcher I didn't expect to be a 2020 Yankee as recently as three weeks ago. We've already covered Zack Britton, Gerrit Cole, Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu, Adam Ottavino, James Paxton, Luis Severino, Giancarlo Stanton, Masahiro Tanaka, Gleyber Torres, Gio Urshela, and Luke Voit. Last year wasn't quite the worst case scenario for Happ, but it was pretty bad. He threw 161.1 innings with a 4.91 ERA (5.22 FIP) and 34 home runs allowed, the sixth most in baseball. Come postseason time Happ was pitcher non grata, so much so that the Yankees went with a bullpen game (with tired relievers) with their season on the line in ALCS Game 6 rather than start Happ. Happ showed all the warning signs you don't want to see in a just turned 37-year-old pitcher last year:

• Strikeout rate: 20.7% (lowest since 2016)
• Fastball velocity: 92.0 mph (lowest since 2013)
• Fastball spin: 2,319 rpm (lowest since Statcast launched in 2015)
• Exit velocity: 88.9 mph (highest since Statcast launched in 2015)
• Hard-hit rate: 37.4% (highest since Statcast launched in 2015)

Happ is a fastball pitcher -- he throws a heater roughly two-thirds of the time -- and his fastball is losing zip, likely due to age, which is completely normal. The result was more hard contact and fewer strikeouts last season. Given his age, it's safe to assume Happ will continue losing something off his fastball going forward. That's just how it goes with pitchers approaching 40. Not surprisingly, Happ said he plans to tinker with his mechanics and repertoire this spring. “I plan to try to adjust a little bit of my repertoire the best I (can) to try to go forward. Also, my strengths are my strengths, so I’m trying to mold both of those to make it work as best we can," he told Dan Martin last week. Happ pitched well in September -- Brian Cashman cited that as a reason to believe he will be better this year -- and he threw more four-seamers (56%) and fewer sinkers (11%) that month -- the split was closer to 45/20 earlier in the season -- leading to a few more strikeouts and less hard contact, which is something.

"I was able to use my legs a little bit better, my hips a little bit better," Happ told Pete Caldera when asked about his big September (1.65 ERA and 3.10 FIP). That's all well and good, but it is one month worth of data, and that month is September, a month in which the quality of competition can vary wildly. Beyond honing his mechanics, I think the best thing Happ can do at this point is adjust his pitch mix slightly. Last season he threw his slider 30% of the time to lefties and his changeup only 1% of the time. Against righties, it was 13% sliders and 18% changeups. Happ is not gonna go full Tanaka and start throwing something like 25% fastballs, but I do think more changeups to lefties and more sliders to righties can help. Righties know they'll get the fastball and changeup, and lefties know they'll get the fastball and slider. Introducing that third pitch will change the scouting report a bit and give Happ a better chance against unsuspecting hitters. More than anything, what would most help Happ this season is completely out of his control: the baseball. Should the rocket ball go away and help curb his home run problem -- his 397-foot average home run distance was 11th lowest among the 46 pitchers who allowed at least 25 homers last year, for what it's worth -- Happ would benefit quite a bit. Seventeen of those 34 homers last season were multi-run shots because he does put a lot of runners on base. Gerrit Cole gave up 29 home runs last year and that's a lot, but 25 (!) were solos because he's so stingy with baserunners. Happ is ... not that. It's not great when the best way a player can improve is completely out of his control, but that's where Happ is going into 2020. Maybe a few more sliders to righties and changeups to lefties will help. The rocket ball going away would help more than anything. “The results weren’t as good as we feel he threw the ball last year. A number of times he was pitching really well and maybe a long ball got him and wrecked the outing. He threw the ball well down the stretch for us and even in the playoffs," Aaron Boone told Martin last week. (This is where I again point out the Yankees really should've signed Patrick Corbin last offseason. His luxury tax number is only $6.3M more than Happ's, and with Masahiro Tanaka and Jacoby Ellsbury coming off the books after the season, there would've been plenty of payroll room for him and Cole going forward. Corbin's an elite bat-misser with a slider that is on the short list of the game's best pitches, and the dude was practically begging to be a Yankee. Alas.)

5. Yankees sign Bett(i)s. It's always neat when the Yankees sign a personal fave, even when he's possibly beyond the point of usefulness. Over the weekend the Yankees inked Chad Bettis to a minor league contract, the team announced. I first wrote about him as a possible trade target back in Dec. 2016. The former Rockies right-hander gets a $1.5M base salary at the big league level with another $2M available in performance bonuses, according to Joel Sherman. Bettis took his physical Saturday and it was not a formality. He had bilateral hip surgery in August and, more seriously, he fought testicular cancer that unexpectedly spread in 2017. He threw seven shutout innings in his first start back, which was pretty cool. On the field, things haven't gone well for Bettis the last three years. He has a 5.31 ERA (5.06 FIP) with a mere 15.1% strikeout rate in 230.1 innings spread across 32 starts and 43 relief appearances since 2017. On the bright side, Bettis has a 52.3% ground ball rate in those 230.1 innings, including 60.8% grounders in 63.2 innings prior to hip surgery last year. These days he is a three-pitch pitcher (he's more or less shelved his curveball):

• Four-seamer: 93.0 mph and 2,037 rpm
• Changeup: 87.0 mph and 1,370 rpm
• Cutter: 88.8 mph and 2,292 rpm

The velocity is encouraging because that's where Bettis sat when I wrote about him four years ago, before he was diagnosed with cancer and had hip issues. Low spin equals sink -- that's true of fastballs and changeups -- and I bet the Yankees have Bettis put the four-seamer in his pocket focus on a true sinker, something he's thrown sporadically throughout his career. The sinker/changeup/cutter combination is unusual -- Marco Gonzales, Wade LeBlanc, Mike Leake, Martin Perez, and David Price were the only pitchers to throw each of those pitches at least 15% of the time last season (min. 100 innings) -- but unusual doesn't automatically mean bad. Bettis has a potential carrying skill in his ground ball ability, he's versatile and can give you multiple innings, and he's long been regarded as fearless on the mound. Also, the health issues speak to his ability to deal with adversity. No matter how bad things get on the field, Bettis has been through worse. Former Rockies are the new market inefficiency -- in all seriousness, maybe the Yankees think they've solved the Coors Field mystery given their success with DJ LeMahieu, Adam Ottavino, and Mike Tauchman (and David Hale)? -- and a minor league contract carries no risk. James Paxton will be out until June-ish -- I wouldn't want Bettis in the rotation outright, but he's someone who could be paired with an opener -- and the Yankees have two open bullpen spots. Bettis will have an opportunity to earn a roster spot this spring. Bring him to camp as a non-roster guy, see how he looks post-hip surgery, and evaluate. No harm in it. "We will see. He is obviously coming in here with a little bit of a track record. We will see where he is and certainly be in that kind of mix," Aaron Boone told George King over the weekend. (With the late Bettis and Tony Zych signings, the Yankees now have 21 non-roster invitees in big league camp.)

6. Rapid fire thoughts. Not surprisingly, Aaron Boone said there's a "good chance" Gerrit Cole will start Opening Day, according to Jack Curry.  The Yankees usually don't officially name their Opening Day starter until mid-to-late March, but yeah, the guy who signed the richest pitching contract in history and is arguably the best pitcher in the game right now is the obvious pick for the season opener. The Yankees open the season with six games on the road (three in Baltimore then three in Tampa), so whoever starts Game 2 will also start the home opener. Safe to assume that'll be either Luis Severino or Masahiro Tanaka. Either's fine with me ... turns out Miguel Andujar beat the Yankees to the whole "play some first base and left field" idea. James Wagner says Andujar told his agent it was time to learn new positions last August. "We realized that we had to work and be ready this year to give my best wherever on the field and support the team," Andujar said, adding his dream scenario is to play third base for the Yankees long-term. He expects to play all three positions this spring. His ability to play the outfield would bode well for Mike Ford, a first base only guy, who might not fit the roster otherwise ... minor league players are finally getting a raise. Ben Walker and Jake Seiner report MLB will raise the minor league minimum salary beginning in 2021. Here are the new minimum salaries at each level (this is per week):

• Rookie and Short Season: $290 to $400
• Single-A: $290 to $500
• Double-A: $350 to $600
• Triple-A: $502 to $700

My quick math has the total annual cost increase at $599,000 for the Yankees and their nine minor league affiliates (Dominican Summer League, two Gulf Coast League teams, Pulaski, Staten Island, Charleston, Tampa, Trenton, Scranton). It's a drop in the bucket for an MLB franchise. Good on MLB for raising minor league salaries but lordy, we still have a long way to go here. The minimum salary is $17.50 an hour at the highest level of the minors assuming a 40-hour workweek, and these guys spend a lot more than 40 hours a week at the park and on the bus. The fight for fair compensation for minor leaguers still has a long, long way to go ... the Hartford Yard Goats (Rockies' Double-A affiliate) are doing a cool thing this season I'd like to see other teams do, including MLB teams. They're holding a First Timers Night on April 24th where they will teach people about baseball. The rules and whatnot will be explained on the scoreboard throughout the game and things like that. Let's face it, baseball can be boring, and if you don't know the game, it can be easy to get lost on your phone given all the downtime. Explaining the game to new fans at the ballpark seems worthwhile. Well done, Yard Goats.

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)