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February 14th, 2020: Position Battles, Sanchez, Judge, Cole, Zych, Top 100 Prospects, German, Mailbag

Yup. (Presswire)

A quick announcement: I'm going on vacation in a few weeks and I'm planning to skip the regularly scheduled post on Friday, March 6th. That's three weeks from today. I haven't been on a true "unplug your brain and relax" vacation since before RAB. I'm looking forward to it. Now here are today's Astros-free thoughts.

1. Spring Training position battles. Spring has sprung and the Yankees are in Tampa preparing for the 2020 season. Well, pitchers and catchers are. Position players aren't due to report until Monday. The Grapefruit League season begins next weekend and, as always, the Yankees will hold position battles. Some are truly wide open races. Other competitions might just be for show. Here are the five roster spots (six, really) up for grabs this spring. With any luck, injuries won't create any additional position battles.

Fifth Starter

Candidates: Luis Cessa, Deivi Garcia, Mike King, Jonathan Loaisiga, Jordan Montgomery, Nick Tropeano, maybe David Hale and even Clarke Schmidt?
The Favorite: Montgomery

The James Paxton injury means J.A. Happ will stick around as the fourth starter and the Yankees will hold an audition for the fifth starter's spot. Montgomery would seem to be the favorite now that he's healthy, though Aaron Boone stopped short of anointing him earlier this week. "Monty’s in a good place. He’s worked really hard this winter. I think him coming back at the end of last season was important for him to gain a little bit of momentum and for his mindset heading into the winter. He’s proven himself at this level, so we know he is certainly capable," Boone said. Brian Cashman specifically mentioned Cessa, Garcia, King, and Loaisiga as rotation candidates recently, and I'm assuming Tropeano will be in the mix as well. Hale pitched so well as a multi-inning reliever last year that I think that will be his new home, though there's no harm in stretching him out in Spring Training. Schmidt? That's a stretch for me. He's barely pitched at Double-A and is a legitimate prospect with a development plan. The Yankees probably won't deviate from that plan, though Montgomery came out of nowhere to win the fifth starter's job three years ago. The difference between Schmidt now and Montgomery then is that Montgomery had Triple-A time under his belt and didn't have Tommy John surgery in his not-too-distant past. I don't see the Yankees rushing Schmidt. I think this is Montgomery's job to lose with King and Loaisiga ahead of Cessa as the fallback plan. "We feel like we've got a lot of good options and we're a ways away from making that decision. Monty is certainly, obviously, in that mix because of his track record and because of where we believe he is health-wise. But we also want Monty to not feel like he's got to go out and win the Cy Young Award in his first outing in February. This is a process, and we're trying to get individuals ready for what is a very long season. And when the time comes at the end of spring, we'll hopefully make a good decision," Boone said.

Two Bullpen Spots

Candidates: Luis Avilan, Ben Heller, Jonathan Holder, Brooks Kriske, Tyler Lyons, Dan Otero, and everyone in the fifth starter competition
The Favorite: Holder and Loaisiga, I'd say

Assuming the out of options Cessa winds up back in the bullpen, he would again join Zack Britton, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, Tommy Kahnle, and Adam Ottavino in the relief crew. The 26-man roster mandates an eight-man bullpen (or a six-man rotation and a seven-man bullpen, but that's another discussion for another time), so two spots are open. I think the bullpen competition is much more wide open than the fifth starter competition. The fifth starter race might be rigged in favor of Montgomery. The bullpen competition is an actual competition, and here's the thing: the competition doesn't end on Opening Day. Whoever wins those last two bullpen spots in Spring Training will have to continue pitching well during the regular season to stay on the roster, otherwise they'll get swapped out real quick. Holder was never quite right last year after his strong 2018, then he went down with a shoulder injury in August. He's never been a blow-you-away type, and if the shoulder injury robs him of any velocity, he might be unrosterable. For now, I assume Holder is healthy (there's no indication otherwise) and the front runner for a bullpen spot based on what he did two years ago. The other bullpen spot? Geez, who knows. I could see that going to anyone, really. The Yankees have 40-man roster flexibility (Paxton and Aaron Hicks are 60-day injured list candidates), so they can take a non-roster guy like Hale or Lyons. The Yankees really like Loaisiga and he got a good amount of run in the postseason last year, which suggests some level of trust, plus the guy might a) fit best in relief given his injury history, and b) be a really great reliever. This'll play in one or two-inning bursts:

Loaisiga has serious Chad Green 2.0 potential. I think the Yankees recognize that and are ready to commit to him as a reliever, assuming all hell doesn't break loose and he's needed in the rotation. Am I confident Holder and Loaisiga will be in the Opening Day bullpen? No, but I think that is the most likely scenario given what we know right now, before Grapefruit League games even begin. "(We) are very excited about a lot of our young pitchers that -- a lot of people already know their names -- they're going to start knowing their names. A lot of guys that we added to our 40-man that we've been excited about now for several years, a lot of the high-end pitching prospects that you've been hearing about at the lower levels. They're in camp with us now, you're starting to see them, and it wouldn't be far-fetched to at some point see one or more of those guys impact our rotation, our bullpen, whatever it may be," Boone said.

Backup Catcher

Candidates: Kyle Higashioka, Chris Iannetta, Erik Kratz, and I guess Wynston Sawyer
The Favorite: Higashioka, overwhelmingly

This is one of those competitions that is not really a competition. The Yankees want it to be Higashioka and it will be Higashioka as long as he makes it through camp in one piece. That won't change even if he hits .150/.210/.265 during Grapefruit League play, I don't think. The Yankees brought Iannetta and Kratz (and Sawyer) in as depth to push Higashioka -- the job may be his, but you don't want him getting too comfortable, you know? -- and to provide coverage in case there is an injury. It's really hard for me to see Iannetta or Kratz beating out Higashioka for the job on merit this spring. The Yankees love Higashioka's pitch-framing and power, and he is out of minor league options, so sending him to Triple-A requires a pass through waivers. Barring injury, the backup catcher's job is his. I would be stunned if the Yankees go in another direction. (The Yankees put together a series of Valentine's Day wallpaper images and included Higashioka, so yeah.)

Backup Infielder

Candidates: Thairo Estrada, Tyler Wade, and I guess Rosell Herrera
The Favorite:
Probably Wade

Didi Gregorius is gone, so Gleyber Torres is the starting shortstop and DJ LeMahieu is the starting second baseman. Those positions are set in stone. That sets up either Estrada or Wade to be the backup infielder. Herrera has a lot of infield experience too, so we can't rule him out, but I think he's a distant third in this race. Estrada was up for a bit last season -- I would have guessed he received more than 69 plate appearances, but that's what he had -- and Wade has spent parts of the last three seasons in the big leagues, and he's been on the postseason roster at various points too (2018 Wild Card Game, 2019 ALDS). He can really run and he's a very good defender at multiple positions. Thairo is more of a "good at everything but great at nothing" player. My hunch is Wade has the upper hand here because the Yankees are comfortable letting him sit on the bench a week at a time, because he can make a greater impact with his legs, and because he has more outfield experience, which could come in handy. Also, Wade is a lefty hitter and the Yankees are short on those. That could maybe break the tie. I think Wade is the favorite but Estrada has a legitimate chance to steal the job away in Spring Training. These two will push each other all March. That's a good thing. Competition is healthy.

Last Bench Spot

Candidates: Mike Ford, Clint Frazier, Estrada, Wade, Herrera
The Favorite: I have no idea

The new 26-man roster mandates a four-man bench. The Yankees will use one bench spot on Mike Tauchman (assuming Miguel Andujar is healthy and at DH), one on a backup catcher (Higashioka), and one on a backup infielder (Estrada and Wade). What do they do with the fourth? Beats me, and I think the most likely outcome is this roster spot is used as a revolving door. It could be Frazier if the Yankees have a lot of games coming up against lefty starters, Ford if they're going to see a ton of righties, Estrada and Wade if an infielder is banged up, so on and so forth. Herrera could be the wild card here because he's a former top prospect who switch-hits and has played every position other than pitcher, catcher, and first base at the MLB level. Also, the Yankees gave him No. 12 this spring, which is an oddly low number for a non-roster guy. Usually non-roster players get stuck with a number in the 80s or 90s. Herrera is out of minor league options, so if he makes the big league roster, there's no easy way to send him down to Triple-A to keep the revolving door moving. Then again, losing him on waivers wouldn't be the end of the world, if it even happens. My guess right now is Ford and Frazier are the front runners for the final bench spot and will battle it out in Spring Training. Carrying Estrada and Wade is possible, with Herrera the dark horse. (I don't see any scenario in which the Yankees carry three catchers. Talk about overkill.)

2. Gary's new stance. When he wasn't busy being asked about the Astros earlier this week, Gary Sanchez said he and new catching coach Tanner Swanson have been working on his stance behind the plate. Specifically, Sanchez is learning a one-knee stance to better frame low pitches. You can kinda see it here. “We’ve been working on having my right knee lower to the ground and receiving in that position. Adjusting from that position to movement, you know? Being flexible in that position, that’s the main focus right now ... I think we've had about a week since we started working together. I can tell you that now I feel much better than Day 1, which is understandable. It's a learning process,” Sanchez told Lindsey Adler (subs. req'd) and Bryan Hoch. Swanson had Mitch Garver adopt the one-knee stance while with the Twins, as Travis Sawchik wrote in September. The before and after:

"We didn’t invent the one-knee setup, but those were traditionally done with nobody on base and less than two strikes," Swanson told Sawchik. Garver went from -9 framing runs in 2018 to -3 framing runs in 2019, and his called strike rate on pitches at the bottom of the zone jumped from 33.7% to 57.8%. He went from dead last in called strike rate on those pitches in 2018 to sixth highest in 2019. "It’s the only reason I’m still catching, really," Garver told Sawchik. Swanson will now try to work the same magic with Sanchez. Gary's blocking improved quite a bit last year -- he went from one passed pitch (passed balls plus wild pitches) every 10.4 innings in 2018 to one every 20.1 innings in 2019 -- but his framing went in the tank. He went from +3 framing runs in 2018 to -4 framing runs in 2019, and his called strike rate on pitches at the bottom of the zone went from 47.3% to 43.2%. There is some correlation between framing and blocking in that the best pitch-framers tend to rank among the league leaders in passed pitches. The working theory is they focus so much on framing that they don't go into block mode quick enough. They'll try to frame unframeable pitches, basically. I think it's possible, if not likely, Sanchez's framing stunk last year because blocking was his priority. He was quick to abandon framing the pitch to ensure he kept it in front of him. This year the goal is finding that balance between framing and blocking. With any luck, Swanson and the one-knee stance will help Gary to do that. This is definitely something to monitor throughout Spring Training and going forward. "I think there's still a lot of meat on that bone. He's improved I feel like a lot of over the last couple years. We feel like, with Tanner coming in, and the work they've already begun, we feel like there's more there to be had. Him being open to it and continuing to work hard at that craft, I'm confident we'll see those results as the season unfolds," Aaron Boone said when asked about Gary working on his defense earlier this week.

3. Judge for Gold Glove. Thanks to various hot stove machinations, Aaron Judge has a good chance to win his first career Gold Glove this season. Here are the American League right field Gold Glove finalists in his three full seasons:

Betts has won the last four AL right field Gold Gloves and he and Calhoun have been finalists the last three years. They both now play in the National League. Mookie was traded to the Dodgers earlier this week and Calhoun signed with the Diamondbacks as a free agent. That leaves Judge as the league's top defensive right fielder (in theory). Look at the right field DRS leaderboard:

2017-19
1. Mookie Betts: +66 runs
2. Aaron Judge: +42 runs
3. Jason Heyward: +28 runs
4. Yasiel Puig: +24 runs
5. Cody Bellinger & Mitch Haniger: +21 runs

2019
1. Aaron Judge: +19 runs
2. Cody Bellinger: +19 runs
3. Mookie Betts: +15 runs
4. Hunter Renfroe: +13 runs
5. Bryce Harper & Josh Reddick: +9 runs

DRS is a counting stat, so Judge managed to tie Bellinger for the MLB lead last year despite missing all that time to injury. Over the last three seasons Betts is in his own tier, Judge is in his own tier, then there's everyone else. Mookie (and Calhoun) are now National Leaguers and that clears the path for Judge to win the Gold Glove. His main competition is Reddick and I guess Renfroe, who the Padres traded to the Rays a few weeks ago. Haniger is going to begin the season on the injured list following core muscle and back surgeries, which will cut into his playing time and Gold Glove candidacy. I'm not sure who else would even be in the running. Maybe Max Kepler or Alex Verdugo (he's hurt too)? The on-base ability and glorious dingers get the most attention and understandably so, but Judge is a tremendous all-around player, and this might be the year he finally gets his due on defense (winning a Gold Glove will improve his arbitration cases going forward too). Up next: the campaign to get Masahiro Tanaka a Gold Glove. He was a finalist two years ago and that's it. No other years as a finalist. Judge has a clear path to a Gold Glove now. I hope Tanaka gets his due as well.

4. How can he improve? Gerrit Cole. Our series breaking down each core 2020 Yankee continues today with Cole, the $324M pitcher. We've already covered Zack Britton, Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu, Adam Ottavino, James Paxton, Luis Severino, Giancarlo Stanton, Masahiro Tanaka, Gleyber Torres, Gio Urshela, and Luke Voit. Cole, 29, was outrageously good with the Astros last season, throwing 212.1 innings with a 2.50 ERA (2.64 FIP). His 326 strikeouts were the most by a right-handed pitcher since Nolan Ryan struck out 341 batters in 1977 (in 299 innings), and his 39.9% strikeout rate is the highest ever for a pitcher who threw enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. With the Pirates, Cole pitched down in the zone with a two-seam fastball (Pittsburgh was all about quick outs and ground balls under former pitching coach Ray Searage). The Astros got him to scrap that and pitch up in the zone with his four-seamer, and also throw more sliders. The impact was immediate:

Cole did not win the Cy Young last year -- he was a close second to Justin Verlander (the two received every first and second place vote on the 30 ballots) -- but no matter. He was the guy who rejected the Yankees in college, the guy who was picked No. 1 overall with the Pirates, and the guy who was the big name trade pickup with the Astros. He's always been under the microscope, yet he handled the pressure and lived up to the hype. That $324M contract was well-earned. Eleven years after making him their first round pick, the Yankees finally got their man this offseason. Similar to LeMahieu, I don't know how Cole can improve in 2020. It's hard to be better than he was last season, really, and I feel like any work he puts in going forward is more about maintaining last year's performance level than improving on it. The homers? Cole allowed 29 home runs last season (1.23 HR/9 and 16.9 HR/FB%), the 21st most in baseball, but everyone gave up home runs last year. The pitch locations tell us the homers came mostly on mistakes out over the plate:

Hang a breaking ball or leave a fastball middle-middle and there's a good chance it'll wind up in the seats, no matter how hard you throw. The current version of Cole is a fly ball guy (38.1% grounders the last two years) and when you give up fly balls, you're going to give up homers. Among those 29 homers last year, 25 were solo shots (!) and four were two-run shots (!). Even if the rocket ball sticks around, limit the multi-run homers and I'll live. Cole's workload worries me a bit. Well, no, worry isn't the right word. I just think it's something he and the Yankees have to keep in mind this spring and throughout the year. Cole threw 249 innings in 2019, easily a career high, and he pitched his final game on Oct. 27th (that's not counting warming up in the bullpen in Game 7 of the World Series on Oct. 30th). It was a lot of innings with a shorter offseason to recover. "As far as the 250 innings (last year), I feel pretty recovered. If anything, I feel like I have more feel for where the ball’s going now, which I guess continues with more experience and the more you throw," Cole said yesterday. That's all well and good, but I'm sure Cole and the Yankees will be vigilant when it comes to his workload and possible fatigue. They'll monitor his arm angle and release point and spin rates and all that stuff. Cole is too good and too important (and too well-compensated) for the Yankees to not be cautious. If that means bringing him along slowly in Spring Training and not fully turning him loose until May, so be it. I will happily trade innings in March and April for innings in October. In all likelihood 2019 was Cole's career year, and that's fine. I mean, he had a 2.50 ERA (2.64 FIP) with 326 strikeouts in 212.1 innings. How many guys can do that multiple times? (Very few.) Limit the multi-run homers and be vigilant when it comes to his workload, and I'll be a happy camper in 2020. "(Pitching coach Matt Blake and I) corresponded a couple times over the offseason to go over the scouting reports, what I'm looking for from the analytic team, and their specific evaluation of my repertoire and what I may benefit from moving forward. We haven't gotten too deep on the surface yet because there has not been as much time (with) eyes on each other -- there are some nuances that can be picked up -- but we've laid a little ground work to try to facilitate those conversations in spring and get a jump start. I think he's been really helpful communication-wise. He's been really diligent -- I like his thoughts so far -- and we're on the same page a lot," Cole said yesterday.

5. Yankees sign Zych. Earlier this week the Yankees signed former Mariners right-hander Tony Zych to a minor league contract, the team announced. He will be in big league camp as a non-roster player. Fun fact: 19,683 men have played Major League Baseball and Zych is dead last alphabetically. David Aardsma, who appeared in one game with the Yankees, is first. Anyway, Zych was once a touted bullpen prospect who did nice work with Seattle, pitching to a 2.72 ERA (3.22 FIP) with 25.9% strikeouts and 49.7% grounders in 72.2 innings from 2015-17. The 11.0% walk rate was too high, but the strikeouts and grounders made them tolerable. The twist: Zych has not pitched since 2017. He had shoulder and elbow problems, and eventually required thoracic outlet syndrome surgery. The signing came out of nowhere but it didn't really come out of nowhere. It's not like the Yankees picked his name out of a hat and signed him. I assume Zych was working out somewhere and showcased himself for teams, and the Yankees liked what they saw, so they signed him. Here's some pre-injury video. Before the injuries Zych was a mid-90s sinker guy with a high-spin slider he threw nearly half the time. I have no idea what he looks like now, but, for the Yankees to sign him, even to a zero risk minor league contract, I imagine Zych showed some semblance of his old self. Enough for the Yankees to commit a minor league roster spot to him, anyway. Zych is only 29 and he has minor league options remaining, so if things work out, he could ride the shuttle. My expectations are low, as they always are with these "the guy hasn't pitched in two years" minor league signings, but we'll see how things go in camp. If nothing else, Zych will be a fun story to watch in Spring Training, similar to Danny Farquhar last year. (The Yankees now have 20 non-roster players in camp.)

6. Another top 100 prospects list. FanGraphs released their top 100 prospects list earlier this week. Rays shortstop Wander Franco is the consensus No. 1 prospect in the game and he's atop the list, predictably. FanGraphs always skews young and toward loud tools with their prospect rankings -- they seem to prefer the rookie ball kid you can dream on over the kid at Double-A who's been a guy for a few years -- and it shows with the Yankees included in the top 100. There are five of them:

42. RHP Deivi Garcia
49. OF Jasson Dominguez
81. OF Kevin Alcantara
85. 2B Ezequiel Duran
90. SS Alex Vargas

In a separate piece, Eric Longenhagen lists Maikol Escotto, Ryder Green, and Canaan Smith as candidates to make the top 100 next season. I gotta say, I'm surprised a top 100 list that is skewed so heavily toward upside has Dominguez behind Deivi, though there's not a significant difference between No. 42 and No. 49 on a top 100 list, so I guess it's not worth sweating. "I don’t know of another 16-year-old on the planet with tools this loud, and struggle to think of a historical example," says the write-up about Dominguez. Alcantara, Duran, and Vargas all make the top 100 after I ranked them 10th, 27th, and 23rd in the system, respectively. I feel like it's a year too early to put those guys on a top 100 list -- are there really only 80 better prospects in the game than Alcantara? ehhh -- but their list, their rules. "Athletic 6-foot-6 outfielders who can rotate like Alcantara can are rare, and this young man might grow into elite power at maturity," the write-up says while also noting Vargas is a "potential impact defender at short who also has uncommon bat control for such a young switch-hitter." If nothing else, the 2018-19 international signing class already looks like a success for the Yankees. They signed Alcantara, Vargas, Escotto, Antonio Gomez, and Osiel Rodriguez (and others) that signing period. Those kids are all a very long way from the big leagues, obviously, but the early buzz is promising. They're getting talked up in a way the 2014-15 international spending spree kids (Dermis Garcia, Nelson Gomez, etc.) never did so soon after signing. That could be a function of the times -- we have much better information about international prospects now than we did even five years ago -- but I think it's more likely the 2018-19 kids are just better prospects. There was a chaotic "throw money at whoever will take it" element in play in July 2014. That isn't so much the case now. Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, and MLB.com released their top 100 prospects lists in recent weeks. Once we get Keith Law's list in 10 days we can put together composite rankings and get a consensus. I reckon we won't see Alcantara, Duran, or Vargas on Law's list. Dominguez, Garcia, and maybe Clarke Schmidt should be there though. Maybe Roansy Contreras, Luis Gil, or Luis Medina sneak on too. That'd be fun.

7. Rapid fire thoughts. Domingo German will not be in Spring Training, the Yankees say. He is allowed to be with the team this spring -- suspended players are allowed to participate in non-public workouts and that's it -- but the Yankees will have him remain in the Dominican Republic and work out at their complex there. That's a no-brainer. It allows German to better comply with the counseling portion of his punishment and it also minimizes distractions in camp. Everyone is already being asked about the Astros non-stop. The Yankees don't want another headache on top of that. German's suspension ends June 5th and he can begin pitching in minor league games on May 21st ... so much for a last minute Cameron Maybin re-signing. Maybin has returned to the Tigers on a one-year deal worth $1.5M with another $1.3M in incentives, according to Jon Heyman. With Giancarlo Stanton set to DH a "fair amount" according to Aaron Boone, and the Yankees seemingly having little desire to play Clint Frazier, I thought they might bring Maybin back to fill the last bench spot. Can't blame him for taking the guaranteed contract and playing time with a bad team though. Maybin put up a .285/.364/.494 (127 wRC+) batting line with 11 homers in 269 plate appearances last year and was a positive in the clubhouse. I'd move him right to the top of the "cheap outfielder the Yankees could trade for should a need arise at midseason" leaderboard ... Baseball America (subs. req'd) released their annual farm system rankings earlier this week. The Rays are No. 1 and the Yankees are No. 17, up from No. 20 last year. That's a little higher than I expected. I thought they'd be in the 20-25 range, so that's a nice surprise. "After the threesome of multitalented newcomer Jasson Dominguez and upper-level righthanders Deivi Garcia and Clarke Schmidt, the Yankees system’s strength is its upside. The group is filled with players with high-ceiling, high-variance futures who have years to go before they make an impact in the big leagues. Or not," says the write-up. Why add the "or not" in there? It's implied with any prospect analysis and it takes away from an otherwise nice blurb. Whatever ... MLB finally announced rule changes for 2020. Here's the press release. Most of it is stuff we've known for weeks (three-batter minimum, 13 pitchers and 13 position players, etc.). Pitchers now have to spend 15 days on the injured list (and on an optional assignment to the minors) rather than 10, which will help curb roster manipulation. Also, managers now have 20 seconds to challenge a play rather than 30. I say give 'em 10. I am pro-instant replay because getting the calls correct is important. I'm also pro-speed the entire process up ... once again, the Yankees did not issue No. 13 or No. 21 this spring. They're gonna retire No. 13 eventually, right? I hope so. As for No. 21, this remains impossibly stupid. It has been nearly 20 years since Paul O'Neill last played. Either retire it or reissue it, and if the fans get upset when it's reissued (dumb, but whatever), then retire it. Leaving it in limbo is just weird. Either you were good enough to have your number retired or you weren't. It's an either/or situation. Somehow the Yankees managed to find a third option with No. 21.

Mailbag Question of the Week

Jonathan asks: Another thought/question abut the cheating scandal. I think people who gambled on games have a legit issue with being cheated. They bet on the games in good faith and were cheated. Class actions are coming right? This isn't going away anytime soon.

It's already happening. Multiple fantasy players have filed lawsuits against MLB claiming the league did nothing to stop the various cheating scandals, which came at their expense (lost winnings, etc.). Class action is possible. Either way, more lawsuits are coming. MLB's legal team will have their hands full in the coming weeks and months.

It is my understanding these lawsuits probably won't lead to anything because fantasy players and those betting on baseball did not enter into a contract with MLB, so there was no breach. Their agreement is with their fantasy provider or gambling house, and it's not their responsibility of those entities to police the sport. Worth a shot. Probably won't work though.

The thing is, even if the lawsuits don't go anywhere, this is another example of baseball's eroding relationship with fans. Fans who watched games with a rooting interest and nothing more are upset. Imagine losing money because of the cheating scandals (scandals, plural) too? Lordy. MLB has a lot of work ahead of them getting fans back on their side.

Bonus Mailbag Question of the Week

Anonymous asks: Some of the most hyped baseball seasons was when there were players chasing the home run record. Mantle and Maris in 1961 was very well publicized and McGwire and Sosa basically revived baseball in 1998. How much would a year like that help MLB be more relevant? A race between Judge-Stanton or Trout-Bellinger I think would really get baseball back in the sports conversation like football and basketball and perhaps another year of a juiced baseball would make this feat possible.

Forget relevance, baseball could use a good home run chase to steer the conversation away from all the cheating and the labor issues, couldn't it? It would only exacerbate the rocket ball conversation, but two out of three ain't bad. I guess the rocket ball conversation would depend on league-wide home run rates anyway.

More than anything, baseball needs something positive to happen. Cheating, tanking, minor league contraction, and uncertainty with the baseball are dominating headlines. My sense is fans have less trust in the product right now than at any point since the 1994-95 work stoppage. Baseball desperately needs good news and a home run chase would provide it.

Bonus Bonus Mailbag Question of the Week

Brian asks: Why do lefties have so much trouble hitting lefties but righties don’t hitting righties?

First things first: yes, lefties are worse at hitting lefties than righties are at hitting righties, but not that much worse. Here are the 2019 numbers:

RHB vs. RHP: .247/.312/.423 (91 wRC+)
RHB vs. LHP: .262/.332/.455 (104 wRC+)

LHB vs. RHP: .254/.331/.444 (101 wRC+)
LHB vs. LHB: .247/.316/.404 (88 wRC+)

You can blame it on a lack of repetition. There are more righties than lefties in the world and that applies to baseball too. Last season 59.0% of all plate appearances were taken by righty hitters and righty pitchers faced 72.3% of batters. Only 7.9% of all plate appearances were left-on-left last year, if you can believe that.

Simply put, left-handed batters don't see many left-handed pitchers. That's true during their amateur days, coming through the minors, and in the big leagues too. Some lefties make it work. For many, they don't face enough lefty pitchers to ever get comfortable.

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)

Comments

That all sounds awfully reasonable to me, except that I wouldn't be surprised to see Loaisiga in the big league bullpen. I can't remember why I think this, but somehow I have the impression that they sometimes prefer upgrading the sixth spot in the pen to keeping someone stretched out in AAA.

lightSABR

Boone intimated that Stanton will DH a lot this season, which I don't understand. Well, I understand it's to reduce the chance of injury, but that means Andujar has to play the field. Let's hope Miggy does a good job in LF this ST. (1B belongs to Voit/Ford, in my opinion).

DocBob

Oh, and the Astros ballclub can all eat a bag of R.A Dickey's.

Chris

Oddly, I'd like to see Frazier get the last spot, though I feel Ford might be a bigger contributor to the team.

Chris

Enjoy your vacation Mike!

Tabasco_Larry

Before any reliever throws a single pitch, I'm going to go with Hale as the last man in the pen, as long as he shows the same increased velo/spin rate that he did last year. It'll be a pragmatic decision based on the length of the season. They'll give him first shot if he looks decent so they don't lose him on a claim. Monty will get first shot at the 5th starter, unless his command looks really bad in ST. Based on that, they'll want to keep Loaisiga and King stretched out as starters in AAA in the early going. Once Paxton and German return, Loaisiga will eventually become an option in the pen the second half. That's my guess, which means it'll all be wrong.

MikeD

I've come to appreciate the various different Top 100 prospect lists because each has its own take. It would be a bit monotonous and less interesting if they all had the exact same prospects. In the case of Fangraphs, they give us a few different names to consider. That all said, if I was doing a prospect list, I'd have to weigh nearness to the majors and probability of success vs. loud tools on lower-level prospects, even while recognizing the loud-tool prospects in the lower minors have higher upside. I'd probably have Schmidt, Garcia and Dominguez as my top three, although I could easily flip Garcia and Schmidt.

MikeD


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