2020 Preseason Top 30 Yankees Prospects

Double-A Trenton won their fourth championship in 2019. (Photo via Patrick Cavey)

So here we are again. Spring Training is now days away, not weeks away, and soon the long journey that is the 2020 Major League Baseball season will begin. The Yankees are bona fide World Series contenders partly because they’ve spent money (Gerrit Cole, Giancarlo Stanton, Masahiro Tanaka, etc.), but mostly because the farm system has been very productive.

Within the last four years the farm system has produced a top 10 player (Aaron Judge), a soon-to-be top 10 player (Gleyber Torres), a high-end starter (Luis Severino), an above-average catcher (Gary Sanchez), and scores of depth (Miguel Andujar, Chad Green, Jordan Montgomery, etc.). The Yankees have also used the system to make trades (Zack Britton, James Paxton, etc.).

The graduations and trades, combined with a minor league season heavy on injuries and disappointments rather than breakouts, have the farm system looking weaker than at any point in the last five years. It’s not a terrible system, but it ranks in the bottom half of MLB, and only a handful of players in my top 30 have a chance to play in the big leagues this season.

This is my 14th top 30 prospects list -- 13 at RAB and now one here at Patreon -- and it doesn’t get any easier. I catch myself overvaluing probability even though teams put a higher premium on pure upside, and I still struggle to strike a balance between tools and performance. There is no right or wrong prospects list. This is one person’s opinion. Nothing more, nothing less.

Previously, I declined to rank recently signed international free agents because getting reliable information was so difficult back in the day. I would wait until the player played with a domestic minor league affiliate before considering him for my list. I did that with everyone from Jesus Montero to Gary Sanchez to Luis Severino to Deivi Garcia. Wait until they come stateside, then rank them.

It’s time for a change. The information we get on Latin American players is better than ever, and MLB has cracked down on corruption. The days of “surprise! this kid is three years older than we originally thought!” are pretty much over. Once upon a time it made sense to hold off on ranking a prospect until he came stateside. That is no longer the case, so my rankings will now include those players. This should’ve happened two or three years ago, really. Better late than never.

All of my previous top 30 lists are right here. I use the MLB rookie limits of 130 at-bats and 50 innings to determine prospect eligibility. Service time is too much of a headache to track, so I don’t consider it for prospect eligibility. Unless noted otherwise, all headshots come from MiLB.com player pages. I did my best to make this look good on Patreon. I hope it worked. Enjoy this year's top 30 list.

The Good: An ugly Arizona Fall League stint (.131/.312/.180) put a sour note on an otherwise solid first full pro season for Stowers. He’s a righty hitter who’s quick to the ball and has a plan at the plate, and is aggressive on the bases (35-for-51 stealing bases in 2019). In the field Stowers has good range and instincts, and he can hold his own in center. It’s not the sexiest skill set but it gives him a chance to carve out a career as at least a bench guy.

The Bad: The knock on Stowers at this time last season was that he didn’t elevate the ball enough to hit for power. He did get the ball elevated last season (34.1% grounders), but he also became extremely pull happy, cutting into his production. Stowers is at his best when he slashes line drives from pole to pole. The ‘tweener risk is high. Stowers might not have enough power to be an offensive threat nor good enough defense to remain in center long-term, and his poor throwing arm would relegate him to left field rather than right.

2020 Outlook: Stowers is ready for a move up to High-A Tampa, and a good first half could land him with Double-A Trenton for the stretch run. It will be only his second full pro season, sure, but this will be an important season for Stowers. Corner-ish outfield prospects can fall by the wayside quickly if they don't keeping hitting.

The Good: No hitter in the system had a better statistical season than Smith in 2019. He was among the most productive hitters in the Low-A South Atlantic League despite being nearly two full years younger than the average player. Smith has quick hands and great bat-to-ball skills, as well as the strength and strike zone knowledge that project out to high on-base percentages and power. The offensive tools are high-end.

The Bad: Smith is a bat-only prospect. He’s a below-average defensive left fielder and may wind up at first base. He also doesn’t provide much on the bases. At times Smith will lunge at pitches and at others he’ll get too passive. Also, he’s close to maxed out physically, even at age 20. There’s not much room for physical growth and that could limit his long-term power output. Smith will have to hit and hit big to have value.

2020 Outlook: After crushing the Sally League last year, Smith will move up to High-A Tampa in 2020 and he figures to spend close to the entire season there. He will again be among the youngest hitters in the league. 

The Good: Like many middle infield prospects in the system, Smith has a well-rounded skill set. He has sneaky pop from the left side and is mostly a line drive hitter who uses the entire field and grinds out at-bats (the strikeout and walk rates above are correct!). Smith is a good defensive shortstop with better than average instincts, helping everything play up. He’s hit everywhere he’s played, including in college baseball's toughest conference and against elite competition in the wood bat Cape Cod League.

The Bad: Smith does everything well but nothing exceptionally. His best tool is his glove, but it’s not a Gold Glove skill set, and his slight frame suggests there’s not much more power coming. He’s a good runner but not really a stolen base threat. In addition to the lack of a standout tool, a stress reaction in his back limited Smith to six games his sophomore year at LSU, so he has an injury history.

2020 Outlook: With three years in the SEC and Cape Cod League success on his resume, Smith is a good bet to skip Low-A Charleston and begin 2020 with High-A Tampa. A midseason promotion to Double-A is a possibility. (Photo via Times Union) 

The Good: Thanks in part to Duran neglecting to register with MLB in a timely fashion, the Yankees turned a bonus pool exemption -- bonuses $10,000 or less do not count against the international hard cap -- into a legitimate prospect three summers ago. Duran battled through a rough 2018 season in rookie ball, made adjustments in Extended Spring Training, then tore up college-aged competition with Short Season Staten Island last year. He led the NY-Penn League in home runs and consistently makes loud contact to all fields, with exit velocities reportedly up to 112 mph. Defensively, Duran is athletic enough to remain on the middle infield for the time being, and speedy enough to steal the occasional base.

The Bad: The hitting ability is tantalizing, but Duran’s approach needs work, as the strikeout rate suggests. Older pitchers have been able to get him to expand the strike zone the last two years. Duran has proven to be a better defensive second baseman than initially expected, though it’s still unclear whether he’ll remain there long-term. His arm isn’t good enough for third base, making first base or the outfield the fallback plan. It’s not quite a bat-only profile, but it's kinda close.

2020 Outlook: After more than holding his own in the NY-Penn League last season, Duran is ready for an assignment to Low-A Charleston. I expect him to spend the entire season there. 

The Good: Nick Swisher’s favorite player has two nearly elite tools in his power and throwing arm. Breaux has tremendous bat speed and strength, allowing him to muscle even jam shots over the fence. He’s more than a batting practice hero too -- Breaux ranked 17th in the South Atlantic League in homers despite finishing 154th in plate appearances. His arm is his best tool. Breaux pitched in the upper-90s as an amateur and touched 100 mph, and he transfers the ball quickly behind the plate. His receiving and footwork are coming along now that he is focusing on catching full-time. Pitching appears to be a viable fallback plan if catching doesn’t work out.

The Bad: Breaux is extremely aggressive at the plate and it limits his offensive potential. He’ll occasionally sell out for power even though he doesn’t need to, leading to strikeouts and poor contact. Developing better plate discipline is the top priority here. Breaux must also continue working on his defense, as is always the case with catchers this age. Also, an elbow injury sidelined Breaux close to three months last season -- he played 18 of his 21 games at DH after returning -- and he has a history of elbow trouble dating back to junior college. I don’t know if there are ligament issues or what, but Breaux’s elbow is a concern moving forward.

2020 Outlook: Because of the injury Breaux was only able to catch 22 games last season, so I expect him to return to Low-A Charleston to begin 2020. A mid-to-late season promotion to High-A Tampa seems likely.

The Good: The performance doesn’t show it but Sauer has made nice progress in his two full professional seasons. His delivery, which was all over the place as an amateur, is much more streamlined now, and it’s allowed him to throw more strikes. Sauer’s velocity jumped back into the mid-90s last season after occasionally dipping into the upper-80s in 2018. Depending who you ask, his breaking ball is either a curveball or a slider, and it’s a wipeout pitch on its best days. Sauer also throws an improved changeup.

The Bad: Two starts into last season Sauer’s ulnar collateral ligament gave out and he required Tommy John surgery. That’s a bummer. It’ll sideline him most (or all) of this coming season. Beyond the injury, Sauer’s command was still a long way from being even average. He’s getting better at throwing strikes, but they’re not quality strikes. He’s in the zone too much. Sauer’s raw stuff is as good as almost anyone’s in the system. The health and command leave a lot to be desired.

2020 Outlook: These days Tommy John surgery comes with a 14-16 month rehab. The days of a 12-month rehab are over. Sauer will spend the first few months of 2020 finishing his rehab, and, if all goes well, he could begin shaking off the rust with a few appearances in the rookie Gulf Coast League and Instructional League. We won’t see him at full strength and without restrictions until 2021.

The Good: The Yankees signed Salinas with a portion of their leftover international bonus money after being rejected by Shohei Ohtani. Knee and finger injuries sabotaged his 2018 pro debut, but he stayed healthy in 2019, and made progress on both sides of the ball. He’s a great athlete with power potential and an above-average hit tool, giving him a chance to hit for average and power down the road. Salinas has center field tools with a rocket throwing arm.

The Bad: In every phase of the game, Salinas is raw. His plate discipline is rudimentary, leading to too many strikeouts, not enough walks, and not enough hard contact. Also, his first step and his routes in the outfield must improve, and he’s prone to youthful mistakes (overthrowing the cutoff man, etc.). Some of that can be corrected with experience. Some of it will require more effort to improve.

2020 Outlook: Another trip to Extended Spring Training is in the cards for Salinas, who will play the entire 2020 season at age 19. His progress from April through June will determine whether he reports to rookie Pulaski or Short Season Staten Island. (Photo via @JesseSanchezMLB)

The Good: The (second) Adam Warren trade gave the Yankees enough international bonus pool money to swoop in and sign Vargas away from the Reds and an unknown West Coast team (likely the Dodgers given the bonus pool situations at the time) a year and a half ago. Vargas wowed with his quick twitch athleticism and bat-to-ball ability during his pro debut last year. He’s a very advanced defender for his age. He plays shortstop like a much more experienced player. Vargas has a plan at the plate and consistently gets the fat part of the bat on the ball from both sides. And he’s fast too. It’s quite the tools package.

The Bad: Vargas is a scrawny 18-year-old kid. He’s a little heavier than his listed weight but not that much heavier, and he’s going to have to get stronger to do damage against better fastballs and more advanced pitchers. As easily as he makes contact, Vargas is lacking in exit velocity right now. The young man needs to hit the weight room. Also, Vargas is a switch-hitter but he’s quite a bit better on the left side, so improving as a righty is a goal. Other than that, he just needs to gain experience and refine his skills. Typical teenager stuff.

2020 Outlook: Vargas made his pro debut in the Dominican Summer League last year before moving up to the rookie Gulf Coast League. Another rookie ball assignment, either the GCL or Pulaski, is in the cards following Extended Spring Training. (Photo via @JesseSanchezMLB) 

The Good: Selected with the draft pick the Yankees acquired in the Sonny Gray trade, Sikkema is a big left-hander who stands out most for his slider. It comes in around 80 mph with a very high spin rate, and he knows how to manipulate the pitch. He can make it a big breaker that sweeps across the plate or a shorter slider, almost like a cutter. Sikkema’s fastball is a low-90s pitch with natural sink thanks to his low arm slot (video). He turns over his changeup well and pitches with confidence.

The Bad: The low arm slot gives right-handed hitters a good look at the ball and suggests Sikkema could be headed for platoon issues down the road. The fastball isn’t overpowering either, though the Yankees are pretty good at helping pitchers add velocity, so that’s something to monitor. Sikkema comes with a good amount of reliever risk given his arm slot and average-ish fastball.

2020 Outlook: After spending the last two years in an SEC rotation with Missouri, the Yankees figure to send Sikkema directly to High-A Tampa to begin 2020. He’ll remain in the rotation because there’s no reason to relegate him to the bullpen just yet. It’s not out of the question Sikkema could reach Double-A before the end of the season. (Photo via @MLBPipeline)

The Good: Few prospects in the system have as wide-ranging a skill set as Peraza. He has top notch hand-eye coordination and makes contact with ease, and his speed makes him a weapon on the bases. Peraza is a gifted defender at shortstop with good hands and a strong arm, and his internal clock is very good as well. He’s always in control defensively. Between the defense, the baserunning, and the bat-to-ball skills, Peraza has a fun toolkit.

The Bad: There are conflicting opinions about Peraza’s power. Some see developing strength and legitimate power potential, others note an in-game lack of hard contact and a tendency to put the ball on the ground (55.9% grounders in 2019). Beyond that, Peraza can be overly aggressive at the plate because he makes contact so easily. He’s drawn a fair amount of walks in the low minors mostly because so many pitchers struggle to throw strikes down there. As he climbs the ladder, that could change.

2020 Outlook: Peraza held his own during a late season cameo with Low-A Charleston and will return to the level to begin 2020. He is going to be Rule 5 Draft eligible after the season, so earning a midseason promotion to High-A Tampa would bode well going into the winter. I think Peraza is a prime piece of trade bait given the 40-man roster situation and the chance another team buys into the power potential more than the Yankees.

The Good: It took three years, but Gomez has gone from scrawny lottery ticket to bona fide prospect. He’s added velocity as he’s filled out and now sits in the low-to-mid-90s. His promising big breaking curveball misses bats and his changeup is coming along as well. Moreso than the raw stuff, Gomez stands outs for his creativeness and pitchability. He can sink and cut his fastball, and he likes to steal strikes with first pitch curveballs. Gomez is athletic with a repeatable delivery, and he understands the importance of using all three pitches.

The Bad: Typical young pitcher stuff. Gomez needs to improve his curveball and changeup, hopefully enough that one becomes a true out-pitch, and while his craftiness and creativity are fun, he can get too cute at times. Hitters in the rookie Appalachian League were no match for Gomez, but, once he got to Low-A Charleston, hitters gave him a rude awakening. He’s creative but lacks mound maturity, if that makes sense.

2020 Outlook: Gomez is ticketed for a return to Low-A Charleston after making six starts there to close out 2019. He will be Rule 5 Draft eligible after the season and he strikes me as a trade candidate. Hard to see the Yankees adding a mid-range Single-A pitching prospect to a crowded 40-man roster.

The Good: Seigler is the prototypical modern baseball prospect. He’s extremely athletic, very smart and instinctive, and he has a wide array of skills. Seigler does his best work behind the plate, where he’s an above-average receiver with great footwork and a strong arm, and he has a reputation for working well with pitchers. He’s even learning Spanish so he can better communicate with teammates. At the plate Seigler is a switch-hitter with a line drive swing and good strike zone knowledge. He throws with both arms (he was a switch-pitcher as an amateur), though it’s a novelty more than a skill with real world value. Seigler is a tough player who is easy to love for his grinder mentality.

The Bad: The injuries, first and foremost. Seigler has suffered three significant injuries in his 18 months as a pro: concussion in August 2018, quad strain in spring 2019, broken kneecap in July 2019. As a result, he has only 215 pro plate appearances to his name, and it’s worrisome whenever a catcher continually gets hurt and misses time. Offensively, Seigler is pretty much the opposite of a power hitting prospect trying to develop a plan at the plate. He has a plan but doesn’t impact the baseball. He didn’t play much this year, and when he did, the reviews were largely negative. It takes a lot for me to drop a prospect from No. 3 one year to No. 19 the next, but I think it’s warranted here, and I like Seigler. 

2020 Outlook: There have been no updates on the broken kneecap -- Seigler was either hit by a foul tip or got crossed up (reports are conflicting) -- though that’s not unusual for a lower minors prospect. If he’s healthy, I expect the Yankees to send Seigler back to Low-A Charleston, and he’ll likely spend the entire season there. He and Josh Breaux will have to share catching duty a la Austin Romine and Jesus Montero back in the day.

The Good: Green made more strides in his first full pro season than I think even his biggest fans expected. Against the most advanced pitching he’s ever faced -- Green was nearly two years younger than the average Appalachian League player -- he cut down on his strikeout and swing-and-miss rates significantly, and showed his premium power plays in games, not only batting practice. Green makes very hard contact and has 30-homer potential, and he’s more than a slugger too. He’s a great athlete and he runs well, and he has a strong arm. He can handle center field now but likely fits best in right field long-term. Green has an exciting power/speed toolkit -- he led all Appy League teenagers in homers and was third in steals -- and reports indicate he impressed with his decision-making and instincts. He’s much more of a refined ballplayer than originally believed.

The Bad: There are still times Green will get home run happy and foul himself up at the plate. He has power and he knows it, and occasionally he’ll sell out for it even though he can hit the ball out of the park without muscling up. Also, despite his strong build, Green wore down late last year (he struck out 21 times in his final 18 games), so he still needs to learn how to handle the rigors of a full season. Otherwise, so far so good. Green’s first full pro season was a pleasant surprise.

2020 Outlook: Even after making nice progress last season, I suspect the Yankees will hold Green back in Extended Spring Training this year rather than send him to Low-A Charleston. He’ll be 19 on Opening Day and will still be young for the NY-League Penn when the season begins in June.

The Good: No player in the system improved his prospect stock as much as Vizcaino in 2019. He signed with the Yankees at age 19, ancient for an international free agent, and he spent the first three years of his career eating innings as an organizational depth arm in the low minors. Vizcaino really took to the Yankees' throwing program, apparently, because he showed up last year throwing mid-to-upper 90s and touching 100 mph after sitting in the low-90s earlier in his career. His moneymaker is a filthy low-90s changeup that resembles a splitter given the way it dives down and out of the zone. The added velocity increased the separation between Vizcaino’s fastball and changeup and improved his performance. He throws strikes, he now has above-average velocity, and the changeup might be the single best pitch in the farm system. How about that?

The Bad: In addition to the short track record, Vizcaino lacks a usable third pitch. He shows a feel for spinning a slider but the pitch is very inconsistent and he doesn’t appear to have much confidence in it. Vizcaino is similar to one-time prospect Domingo Acevedo, who also threw in the upper-90s and had a knockout changeup in his heyday. Acevedo never did figure out a breaking ball, and once he got hurt and started to lose velocity, his stock crashed hard. Vizcaino has been healthy to date, but, as is, he’s unlikely to stick as a starter, and the uptick in velocity will have to prove permanent to continue having success.

2020 Outlook: Vizcaino finished last season with High-A Tampa and he’ll return there to begin 2020, with a midseason promotion to Double-A Trenton possible. He was passed over in the Rule 5 Draft earlier this winter -- that’s telling, because it means teams aren’t sold on him yet -- but, if Vizcaino repeats his 2019 success in 2020 and reaches Double-A, I’d bet against the Yankees leaving him exposed again. The fact he will be in big league camp as a non-roster invitee indicates the team believes in him even if they didn’t add him to the 40-man roster earlier this winter.

The Good: The Yankees signed Yajure as part of their mostly failed 2014-15 international spending spree and he needed Tommy John surgery about 18 months after signing. He could always command his curveball and changeup, but the Tommy John surgery rehab helped him add strength, and he came back with a 93-95 mph fastball rather than the 90-92 mph heater he threw prior to elbow reconstruction. Now it’s good velocity with command of two quality secondary pitches, and the Yankees worked with him to add a cutter last season as well. Yajure locates three pitches and is working on a fourth, and he pitches with a chip on his shoulder. It’s a sneaky good tools package. (Yajure is pronounced ya-HOO-ray. Hooray for Yajure!)

The Bad: Even with the added velocity, Yajure is not overpowering, so he needs to remain precise with his location to get outs. Neither the curveball nor the changeup is a legitimate out-pitch at this point, so while he gets outs, Yajure doesn’t have a go-to pitch he can lean on in two-strike counts or in big situations. There’s also the whole Tommy John surgery thing. His arm has said no mas once already.

2020 Outlook: The Yankees like Yajure enough that they added him to the 40-man roster in November to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft. Yajure made three appearances with Double-A Trenton late last year (postseason included) and he’ll return to the level to begin 2020. A midseason promotion to Triple-A Scranton is possible if not likely. With the new September call-up rules set to take effect (28 players max), I’d bet against Yajure making his MLB debut in anything other than an emergency long man situation this coming season.

The Good: Nelson has developed about as well as the Yankees could’ve hoped after he split his time between hitting and pitching in junior college. He made significant velocity gains once he focused on pitching full-time and now operates in the mid-90s while touching 98 mph. There’s sink on the fastball too, so it’s not a true four-seamer. Nelson’s top secondary pitch is a hammer low-80s curveball. His changeup has morphed into a splitter, and the cutter he tinkered with late in 2018 is a distant fourth offering. Nelson repeats his delivery well and he’s an animal on the mound. Total bulldog.

The Bad: It’s still the control and command. Nelson has below-average control and poor command. He doesn’t throw enough strikes with his fastball -- that can be blamed on the pitch’s movement to some extent -- and he can neither consistently land the curveball for a called strike nor bury it in the dirt for a swing and miss. He throws it and whatever happens, happens. The splitter and cutter are unrefined, so, for all intents and purposes, Nelson is a fastball/curveball pitcher with poor command. That points to a future in the bullpen.

2020 Outlook: I thought the Yankees might trade Nelson before the Rule 5 Draft protection deadline in November, but they kept him and added him to the 40-man roster. If they put him in the bullpen full-time, he could force a call-up in short order. At this point though, there’s no good reason not to let him continue working as a starter. Maybe he figures out how to throw strikes consistently or improves the splitter to the point where it becomes a reliable third pitch.  

The Good: Following a 2018 season lost to injuries (and a gunshot wound), Estrada reached the big leagues in April 2019 and showed his diverse skill set. He gets the bat on the ball easily thanks to impressive hand-eye coordination, and he has sneaky pop as well. (Last year’s career high 11 homers were certainly rocket ball aided.) Estrada is a reliable defender at shortstop who looks natural at second and third bases. He even handled himself well in left field when the Yankees threw him out there in an emergency last year. Estrada’s just a solid all-around player.

The Bad: Nothing about Estrada stands out. He’s not a significant offensive threat and he won’t rack up big stolen base totals despite good speed. Thairo provides the most value in the field with his defense. The upside is probably something like average offense and +5 runs saved in the field, which is a starting shortstop for a second tier team. For the Yankees, it makes him an up-and-down player and trade chip. Estrada’s a useful piece but not an impact player.

2020 Outlook: Estrada is entrenched as an up-and-down depth infielder at this point. He’ll compete with Tyler Wade for the backup infielder’s spot in Spring Training and he could win it, but, either way, there’s no non-injury path to regular MLB at-bats with Miguel Andujar, DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres, and Gio Urshela on the roster.

The Good: A year ago at this time Cabello was the farm system’s shiny new toy. The Yankees signed him (and Raimfer Salinas) with their leftover Shohei Ohtani money in Dec. 2017 and he turned in a great 2018. Great performance, great reviews. The tools remain impressive, as Cabello makes very loud contact from the right side and is strong enough to hit the ball out the other way. He’s shown plate discipline in the past -- he was getting Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Juan Soto comparisons for his innate hitting ability last year -- and is a quick runner with strong defensive chops despite his inexperience (he caught as an amateur but the Yankees moved him to center field to take advantage of his athleticism). 

The Bad: Those Vlad Jr. and Soto comparisons were premature. Cabello’s bat didn’t look as advanced last season and he struggled most with breaking balls, and often looked overmatched in two-strike counts. There were also questions about his conditioning and compete level. Cabello remains physically gifted but the game humbled him last year for maybe the first time in his life, and he wasn’t always able to grind through it in the best possible way. That’s on top of the shoulder surgery that ended his 2018 season early (he got hurt diving for a ball), though all indications are he was healthy last year. 

2020 Outlook: Because he didn’t tear up the rookie Appalachian League last year, I expect the Yankees to hold Cabello back in Extended Spring Training again this season. An assignment to Short Season Staten Island is more likely than a return trip to Pulaski. A Low-A Charleston cameo can’t be ruled out should 2020 Cabello resemble 2018 Cabello.

The Good: In a farm system loaded with blow-you-away power arms, King zigs when everyone else zags. He succeeds with a deep arsenal, command, and pitchability. King works off a low-90s running two-seamer he loves to front door to left-handed hitters (like this), and his best secondary pitch is a changeup he’ll double and triple up on, even against righties. He also throws a slider, and the cutter he picked up late in 2018 has come along very nicely. King has four pitches (five if you count the occasional four-seam fastball), he works both sides of the plate, and he pitches with a plan. In the build-a-pitcher era, all the ingredients are there for King to exceed his perceived back of the rotation starter upside.

The Bad: King lacks an out-pitch. The changeup is closest -- the slider has its days as well -- but he doesn’t have that go-to weapon to get swings and misses in two-strike counts. King’s margin for error isn’t big even after you factor in his aptitude and command. Also, he suffered a stress reaction in his elbow in Spring Training last year and didn’t make his 2019 debut until July, so that’s a) an arm injury, and b) a lot of lost development time. Another arm injury, particularly one that takes away from his stuff, could render him sub-MLB-caliber.

2020 Outlook: The Yankees got a head start on their Rule 5 Draft protection last year by adding King to the 40-man roster and calling him up when Domingo German was placed on administrative leave in September. He’ll compete for a bullpen spot in Spring Training and will most likely wind up biding his time as a depth starter in Triple-A. That’s not the worst thing in the world following last year’s injury. Either way, I’m sure we’ll see King plenty in 2020.

The Good: Volpe is a prospect who does everything well but nothing spectacularly. He has a smooth line drive swing and good plate discipline, allowing him to really grind out at-bats. The long-term offensive outlook is singles, doubles, and a strong strikeout-to-walk ratio. Volpe’s athleticism, range, hands, and instincts make him a no-doubt long-term shortstop. He’s also a very good runner who projects to steal some bases. Volpe is a scout’s favorite for his gamer playing style and he was considered a top of the line makeup guy going into the draft.

The Bad: There’s no real carrying tool here. Volpe has some pop but doesn’t project to be a home run threat, and he’s unlikely to post high stolen base totals either. If the walk rate isn’t there, he might not be much more than a volume singles hitter. Also, Volpe’s arm is just okay. It’s good enough for shortstop but not a WOW arm that allows him to make plays from deep in the hole. Volpe can help his team in a lot of ways but doesn't figure to be a game-changer.

2020 Outlook: Volpe came down with mono last year and his pro debut was cut short. That also meant we never got to see him at full strength. In all likelihood he’ll report to Extended Spring Training and be assigned to Short Season Staten Island in June. An assignment to Low-A Charleston rather than Staten Island is possible, but I’m guessing it’ll be Staten Island.

The Good: The 2018-19 signing period opened on July 2nd, as it always does, but the Yankees had to wait 10 days for Alcantara to turn 16 before they could give him a seven-figure bonus. He was among the top international prospects on the market because his frame oozes projection and because he shows high-end tools on both sides of the ball. Alcantara has already started to fill out and add muscle since signing, and his power potential is enormous. He’s an exit velocity darling who has hit balls literally out of the complexes in Tampa and the Dominican Republic in batting practice. Alcantara effortlessly glides to balls in center field and he has the tools to be a Gold Glove defender, including good reads, efficient routes, and a strong arm. Chances are he’ll slow down a bit as he matures, but Alcantara has a shot to be a 30/30 player.

The Bad: Alcantara is only 17 and he is extremely raw. He’s still learning how to control those long limbs and get everything to sync up at the plate. Alcantara has a big leg kick (video) and he doesn’t land his front foot consistently, so his timing is all over the place. He must refine his pitch recognition and plate discipline as well. At his size, there will always be length to Alcantara’s swing and swing-and-miss in his game. Refining his swing mechanics and developing a plan at the plate are development priorities 1 and 1A going forward. On pure upside, Alcantara would rank near the top of this list, but he carries a ton of risk too.

2020 Outlook: The Yankees sent Alcantara to the rookie Gulf Coast League for his first pro season following a quick nine-game tune-up in the Dominican Summer League. Given his age -- Alcantara will play most of 2020 at age 17 -- and his development needs, I’d bet the farm on the Yankees returning him to rookie ball out of Extended Spring Training this year. Maybe it’s Pulaski rather than the GCL -- that depends on his progress -- but rookie ball it will be. (Photo via @MLBPipeline)

The Good: Unlike Antonio Cabello, Pereira received positive reviews despite his statistically poor 2019 season. He had a growth spurt soon after signing and with it came more power potential to go along with his high-end offensive tools. Pereira has a quick bat and uses all fields, and he knows the strike zone well. The expectation is he’ll hit for average and power down the road, and post strong on-base percentages. In the field, he has good range and a strong arm, and he’s a speedy runner who adds value on the bases. Also, Pereira is regarded as a smart and instinctual player. The natural gifts far exceed the stats.

The Bad: Obviously the statistical performance is not there yet -- it should be noted Pereira was essentially a high school senior competing against third and fourth year college players in the NY-Penn League last season (the aggressive assignment speaks to how much the Yankees believe in him) -- and a right ankle injury limited him to only 18 games in 2019. His season started on June 14th, he crashed into the outfield wall on July 8th, and that was it. Season over. Pereira remains quite raw -- more experienced pitchers got him to chase out of the zone quite a bit last year -- and must hone his overall game, like most teenagers. He still has a lot to learn.

2020 Outlook: Assuming Pereira is healthy and ready to go come Opening Day -- as far as I know the injury did not require surgery, but good luck getting an injury update on players so far down the minor league ladder -- I expect him to repeat the Extended Spring Training/Short Season Staten Island trip he made last year. An assignment to Low-A Charleston would be aggressive but is not completely impossible. Pereira will play the entire 2020 minor league season at age 19.

The Good: The tools remain unchanged. Florial brings four above-average tools to field in his power, his speed, his throwing arm, and his center field defense. The ball jumps off his bat -- he launches opposite field dingers on the regular -- and he knows a ball from a strike. Florial is a graceful runner who has improved his route running, and his arm is one of the strongest in the system. The total package points to a player who can impact the game at the plate, in the field, and on the bases.

The Bad: Two things have held Florial back. First, his pitch recognition stinks. He knows a ball from a strike but he struggles discerning a fastball from a breaking ball, and it has led to consistently high strikeout and swing-and-miss rates. Florial is one tool short of being a five-tool player and the one tool he’s missing is contact. It’s a risky profile. Secondly, Florial has missed time with right wrist injuries the last two years. He had hamate surgery in 2018 and broke the wrist (in two places) crashing into the wall last spring. That equals lost reps and Florial needs to play to work on his pitch recognition.

2020 Outlook: I expect Florial to return to High-A Tampa this year even though he’s played there since 2018. If nothing else, the Yankees figure to keep him in Tampa until the weather warms up, then promote him to Double-A Trenton. There is definitely some prospect fatigue setting in here, but Florial turned only 22 in November, and he still has all three minor league option years available to figure out pitch recognition after being added to the 40-man roster earlier this offseason. 

The Good: There are days Abreu will look like the best pitching prospect in baseball. He’s a big, sturdy right-hander with a mid-to-upper-90s fastball and a hard mid-80s breaking ball that sometimes looks like a slider and sometimes looks like a curveball. A quality mid-80s changeup rounds out his repertoire. Abreu can miss bats with three pitches and he gets to his velocity with relative ease.

The Bad: Injuries and a lack of control, basically. Abreu has been on the injured list five times in the last three years, mostly with arm problems (lat strain, biceps inflammation, multiple bouts of elbow inflammation), and his career high remains the 101.2 innings he threw while with the Astros in 2016. As for the control, Abreu’s issues throwing strikes stems from an inconsistent delivery with a short stride (video). He needs to stay healthy and refine his mechanics more than anything at this point.

2020 Outlook: Abreu is entering a make or break year. This coming season will be his final minor league option year, meaning he will have to go through waivers to go to the minors starting in 2021. Because of that, Abreu could be shifted to the bullpen at some point this summer a la Dellin Betances in 2013. Abreu has the stuff to dominate in relief. Staying healthy and throwing strikes remains a challenge, however.

The Good: Gil was still in the Dominican Summer League when the Yankees acquired him near the end of Spring Training two years ago. He’s since blossomed into one of their better pitching prospects, one armed with a mid-to-upper-90s fastball that touches triple digits and has a high spin rate. Gil’s curveball is another high-spin pitch. It’s a power breaking ball in the mid-80s. His changeup improved last year and Gil stands out for his easy delivery and the way the ball jumps out of his hand.

The Bad: Despite the easy delivery, throwing strikes has been a challenge for Gil. He managed to cut his walk rate by about a third last season, yet it was still too high. The curveball and changeup are promising but unrefined. He needs to gain consistency with both. Also, there’s an injury history here. Gil missed the entire 2016 season with shoulder surgery while with the Twins and a biceps issue ended his 2019 season a little early.

2020 Outlook: Gil is further away from putting it all together than the raw stats would lead you to believe, but he is making progress. He was added to the 40-man roster earlier this offseason and will open 2020 with High-A Tampa. A promotion to Double-A Trenton at some point could be in the cards. Given the injury history and reliever risk, my guess is the Yankees are more willing to trade Gil than other pitchers ranked high on this list. 

The Good: Few pitchers in the minors can match Medina’s raw stuff. His fastball operates in the upper-90s and has touched 101 mph, and his top secondary pitch is a hard curveball with a high spin rate. Medina also has a quality changeup that dives out of the zone and is a bona fide third pitch. He repeats his delivery surprisingly well, which bodes well going forward. Last year Medina reportedly posted above league average swing-and-miss rates with all three pitches, and the fastball and curveball can generate whiffs in the strike zone. It’s top 1% stuff. It really is.

The Bad: Medina’s top 1% stuff comes with bottom 1% command. Well, no, that’s probably overly harsh, but it is below-average control and almost non-existent command. His career 17.0% walk rate is not a fluke. Reports indicate Medina’s control problems are mostly mental. He could stand to be more consistent with his delivery but it is mostly sound -- it’s not a herky jerky delivery that has him all over the place -- and his control problems stem from letting one pitch impact the next. He’ll let messy situations spiral out of control.

2020 Outlook: Medina was marvelous late last season -- he had a 1.77 ERA (2.02 ERA) with 35.3% strikeouts and 8.4% walks in his final eight starts and 45.2 innings -- and it was enough to convince the Yankees to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft. Given his control issues, I think Medina is a one level at a time prospect, so he’ll spend his first minor league option year with High-A Tampa in 2020.

The Good: Contreras is close to the total package. Like many Yankees pitching prospects, he’s added velocity since signing, and he now sits comfortably in the 93-96 mph range with the occasional 98. It’s a high-spin fastball that almost appears to rise as it approaches the plate (GIF). Depending on the day, Roansy’s best secondary pitch is either his high-spin low-80s curveball or his power mid-80s changeup. Both are out-pitches on their best days. Contreras is a very good athlete with a controlled and compact delivery, allowing him to fill up the strike zone. Also, he’s long drawn praise for his pitching know-how and mound presence. He doesn’t seem to get rattled and he knows how to use a hitter’s aggressiveness against him. 

The Bad: There’s not much not to like about Contreras. He can stand to gain consistency with the curveball and changeup, and he doesn’t have much physical projection remaining, if any. What you see is what you’re going to get. More than anything, Contreras is a just turned 20-year-old kid who needs to gain experience and learn the nuances of the position (holding runners, etc.) and continue honing his skills.

2020 Outlook: Contreras spent all last season with Low-A Charleston and will move up to High-A Tampa this year. A late season promotion to Double-A Trenton can’t be ruled out. Roansy will play the entire 2020 season at age 20 and he will be Rule 5 Draft eligible after the season.

The Good: The Yankees drafted Schmidt a few weeks after he had Tommy John surgery and he’s since not only made a full recovery, he’s also cleaned up his mechanics and improved his changeup to the point where it’s a legitimate putaway pitch on his best days. Schmidt operates in the 92-95 mph range and can touch 97 mph when he reaches back, and he now throws two distinct breaking balls: low-80s curveball and mid-80s slider. He sweeps the slider across the plate to righties and can bury the curve in the dirt for swings and misses. It’s control more than command at this point (i.e strikes vs. quality strikes), but the control has bounced back nicely following elbow reconstruction. Schmidt has long been regarded as a great makeup guy and ferocious competitor, and, for what it’s worth, he’s had a knack for pitching well in big games throughout his career. He outpitched 2018 No. 1 pick Casey Mize on Opening Day last year (box score) and was marvelous during Double-A Trenton’s run to the Eastern League championship (two runs, one earned, in 10.2 postseason innings).

The Bad: Even with the complete Tommy John surgery recovery, staying healthy has been an issue for Schmidt. He missed time with an oblique injury in 2018 and last year forearm inflammation sent him to the injured list twice for a total of six weeks. At some point we need to see Schmidt stay healthy and get through a full season. For now, his career high is the 111 innings he threw as a sophomore at South Carolina in 2016. Aside from that, Schmidt needs to improve his command more than anything. The stuff is plenty good. Getting better at working the corners is a goal for pretty much every pitcher this age and he’s no different.

2020 Outlook: Schmidt appeared in five games (postseason included) with Double-A Trenton late last year and will return to the Thunder to begin 2020. A midseason promotion to Triple-A Scranton is the next logical step. Schmidt will be Rule 5 Draft eligible following the season, but he has a real chance to be called up in the second half, and getting to the big leagues before being Rule 5 Draft eligible would be quite an accomplishment for a guy who had Tommy John surgery a few weeks before being drafted.

The Good: Garcia has made big gains in a relatively short period of time. He’s improved his changeup quite a bit the last two years and, most notably, he added a wipeout slider last season. It was his idea too. Garcia went to the Yankees in Spring Training, said he wanted to learn a slider, and they helped him along. Now he has two putaway pitches in his slider and high-spin curveball. Garcia has a pitch that moves right to left (slider), left to right (changeup), and up to down (curveball). His fastball sits mostly low-90s but will touch 97 mph in shorter bursts. Deivi is a smart kid and extremely coachable. The Yankees can provide their players with a ton of information and Garcia absorbs it all. It’s not an accident he reached Triple-A as a 20-year-old.

The Bad: The improvement Garcia showed with his control in 2018 (6.8 BB%) disappeared in 2019 (11.1 BB%), though I imagine at least part of that is a result of being a 19-year-old in Double-A and a 20-year-old in Triple-A. Advanced hitters don’t chase as often as Single-A guys. Garcia is a short righty -- his official height went from 5-foot-10 in 2018 to 5-foot-9 in 2019 -- and few righties this size have had long-term MLB success. Only 13 righties standing no more than 5-foot-10 have accumulated at least +10 WAR since baseball first expanded in 1961. There is some selection bias in play there -- teams tend to steer clear of short righties, especially back in the day -- but, fairly or unfairly, Garcia’s size creates questions about his durability (he’s been healthy as a pro) and ability to create downhill plane (career 39.9% grounders).

2020 Outlook: The Yankees moved Garcia to the bullpen late last year to control his workload and also prepare him for a possible big league call-up. He never did get called up, but it shows how close Garcia is to helping. Deivi was added to the 40-man roster in November and is all but certain to make his MLB debut this season. His control will determine how quickly that happens. 

The Good: Named after Jason Giambi, the scouting reports on the prospect they call The Martian sound too good to be true. Case in point: the Yankees describe Dominguez as a “player who might be constructed by taking the best tools from other players throughout their system and molding them into a single player.” Dominguez is a switch-hitter with top shelf bat speed, leading to big power potential, and he has advanced strike zone knowledge. Dominguez doesn’t chase bad pitches and he performed very well in pre-signing prospect games in the Dominican Republic and in Dominican Instructional League after signing, so he’s not just a batting practice superstar.

In the field, Dominguez is a well-above-average runner -- the speed serves him well on the bases too -- who has range deep into the gaps. He’s an efficient route runner and has a quick first step, which is especially impressive considering he hasn’t been a full-time outfielder all that long. The Yankees (and other clubs) worked him out at shortstop and catcher as an amateur. Ultimately, the Yankees decided his athleticism and speed are best used running balls down in center field (it’ll also allow him to get to the big leagues as quickly as possible because the defensive learning curve isn’t as steep). Dominguez has a very strong arm and is an accurate thrower as well, and he’s regarded as coachable and a hard worker.

The Bad: We’re still waiting to find out, right? Dominguez hasn’t played in an official minor league game yet. That’ll happen this year. Right now, the two knocks against him are that he has a little too much pre-pitch movement in his swing (video), which he might need to tone down against better pitching, and that he’s close to maxed out physically. Dominguez is a muscular 5-foot-10 and 190 lbs. ... 

... and doesn’t appear to have much projection remaining, even at age 17 (today's his 17th birthday). Similar to Juan Soto, he’s built like a grown man. He doesn’t look like a 17-year-old, physically. Truth be told, the cultural assimilation may be Dominguez’s biggest challenge in 2019, not anything on the field (screen grab via MLB.com).

2020 Outlook: Dominguez will make his pro debut this year and other elite international prospects like Soto, Wander Franco, Vlad Guerrero Jr., and Marco Luciano all split their first pro season between Extended Spring Training and rookie ball. I could see the Yankees jumping Dominguez over the rookie Gulf Coast League and right to the rookie Appalachian League this summer (Franco and Vlad Jr. did that), which has a higher caliber of competition. A late-season (or postseason) cameo with Low-A Charleston can’t be ruled out. (Photo via Jasson Dominguez on Instagram)

* * *

I typically close out these posts by discussing prospects the Yankees have traded over the last year and where they would’ve ranked, but the Yankees haven’t traded many prospects these last 12 months. They haven’t made many trades period. Their most notable trade was, by far, Juan Then for Edwin Encarnacion. Otherwise it’s been minor roster shuffling.

Juan, a righty starter, likely would’ve ranked near the end of the top 30. I can’t see him being any higher than Sikkema at No. 22. Chance Adams and Stephen Tarpley are still prospect-eligible and might’ve sat in the 25-30 range. Adams in particular has seen his stock tumble. Lefty reliever Phil Diehl, who went to the Rockies in the Mike Tauchman trade, would not have been a top 30 consideration. 

In Garcia and Schmidt, the Yankees have two quality prospects knocking on the door of the big leagues, though the farm system’s strength is in Single-A kids with high-end tools. Twenty-two of these 30 prospects have never played above High-A and 11 have yet to escape the short season leagues. That equals risk. It also equals upside, but a farm system built around kids in the lower minors is risky.